Monday, October 6, 2008

Keeper League: Best Picks (SP)

Starting Pitchers

  1. Brandon Webb (keeper) - #12
  2. Scott Kazmir (keeper) - #32
  3. Roy Oswalt (keeper) - #19
  4. Aaron Harang (keeper) - #100+
  5. Tim Lincecum (keeper) - #4
  6. CC Sabathia (keeper) - #2
  7. Jake Peavy (keeper) - #16
  8. John Smoltz (keeper) - #100+
  9. Ben Sheets (keeper) - #14
  10. Cole Hamels (keeper) - #7
  11. Erik Bedard (keeper) - #67
  12. Justin Verlander (keeper) - #100+
  13. Matt Cain (keeper) - #100+
  14. Yovani Gallardo (keeper) - #100+
  15. John Lackey (keeper) - #41
  16. Rich Hill (keeper) - #104
  17. Josh Beckett (keeper) - #35
  18. Daisuke Matsuzaka (keeper) - #21
  19. Felix Hernandez (keeper) - #74
  20. Brett Myers (keeper) - #100+
  21. Johan Santana (keeper) - #5
  22. Chris Young (keeper) - #69
  23. Carlos Zambrano (keeper) - #58
  24. Dan Haren (keeper) - #8
  25. Roy Halladay (keeper) - #1
  26. Francisco Liriano, The Usual Suspects - #100+
  27. Javier Vazquez, Those Guys - #100+
  28. Chad Billingsley, Cleveland Enforcers - #25
  29. James Shields, Akron Pronks - #20
  30. Fausto Carmona, Vandelay Industries - #100+
  31. A.J. Burnett, Cleveland Enforcers - #50
  32. John Maine, Mercer AutoWreckers - #100+
  33. Jered Weaver, Feisty Mosquitos - #76
  34. Philip Hughes, Stewies SexyParties - #100+
  35. Dustin McGowan, Riders of Rohan - #100+
  36. Oliver Perez, The Usual Suspects - #100+
  37. Joba Chamberlain, DamKnights - #36
  38. Clay Buchholz, Feisty Mosquitos - #100+
  39. Ian Snell, Mercer AutoWreckers - #100+
  40. Pedro Martinez, Stewies SexyParties - #100+
  41. Ted Lilly, Cleveland Enforcers - #38
  42. Adam Wainwright, Vandelay Industries - #31
  43. Rich Harden, The Usual Suspects - #6
  44. Chien-Ming Wang, Riders of Rohan - #100+
  45. Jeremy Bonderman, Dunedain Rangers - #100+
  46. Tim Hudson, The Usual Suspects - #28
  47. Kelvim Escobar, The Usual Suspects - #100+
  48. Brad Penny, Akron Pronks - #100+
  49. Randy Johnson, Cleveland Enforcers - #43
  50. Jeff Francis, Those Guys - #100+
  51. Zack Grienke, DamKnights - #34
  52. Tom Gorzelanny, Stewies SexyParties - #100+
  53. Joe Blanton, Riders of Rohan - #100+
  54. Derek Lowe, Those Guys - #15
  55. Chris Carpenter, Riders of Rohan - #100+
  56. Jon Lester, Howard’s Heroes - #26
  57. Mark Prior, Riders of Rohan - #100+
  58. Homer Bailey, Stewies SexyParties - #100+
  59. Gil Meche, Riders of Rohan - #64
  60. Hiroki Kuroda, Feisty Mosquitos - #51
  61. Dontrelle Willis, Dunedain Rangers - #100+
  62. Barry Zito, The Usual Suspects - #100+
  63. Mark Beuhrle, Cleveland Enforcers - #77
  64. Kevin Slowey, DamKnights - #37
  65. Ian Kennedy, Feisty Mosquitos - #100+
  66. Jason Schmidt, Riders of Rohan - #100+
  67. Bronson Arroyo, Mercer AutoWreckers - #100+
  68. Andy Pettitte, Vandelay Industries - #100+
  69. Curt Schilling, Akron Pronks - #100+
  70. Matt Garza, Vandelay Industries - #46
  71. Jeremy Guthrie, Mercer AutoWreckers - #48
  72. Jake Westbrook, Dunedain Rangers - #100+
  73. Boof Bonser, Howard’s Heroes - #100+
  74. Ubaldo Jimenez, Stewies SexyParties - #100+
  75. Scott Baker, Akron Pronks - #27
  76. Gio Gonzalez, Vandelay Industries - #100+
  77. Andrew Miller, Howard’s Heroes - #100+
  78. Bartolo Colon, Stewies SexyParties - #100+
  79. David Price, Vandelay Industries - #100+

Analysis:

You probably noticed that a large number of pitchers are listed simply as 100+. My intention was to carry the rankings well into the 200's, since pitcher turnover is so severe. But when I saw Mark Prior was ranked around #110, ahead of solid producers like Matt Cain, Joe Blanton, and John Maine, I realized something was afoot. Yahoo's rankings are unreliable after about 100, which is a damn shame. So, unfortunately, I can't show you exactly how bad my SP picks were, but I assure you; they were bad.

There are some other numbers we can look at to illustrate it, though. Combined numbers for my 5th, 6th, and 8th SPs (Chris Carpenter, Prior, and Jason Schmidt) this season: 15 IP, 7 Ks, 0 wins. By the way, those are identical to the numbers posted by Chris Carpenter alone. Schmidt and Prior didn't throw a single pitch in the majors this season. My second and third picks after Brandon Webb, my lone SP keeper, were Chien-Ming Wang and Dustin McGowan. Both were out with season-ending injuries by the all-star break.

The top 25 club had several undrafted members, headlined by likely AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. Justin Duchscherer, Ervin Santana, Ryan Dempster, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Mussina, and Edinson Volquez all posted top 25 numbers despite not being on teams after our draft. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if more than one of those guys ends up being a keeper going into next season.

The worst picks outside of my own: Vandelay's pick of Fausto Carmona was a big disappointment, but injury contributed to that a little bit. The SexyParties' Phil Hughes and the Mosquitoes' Clay Buchholz didn't take the strides many had expected this year, and both were essentially worthless on a single-season basis.

The best picks are easier to spot. Rich Harden was the 43rd starting pitcher off the board, but ended up as the 6th ranked SP for the champion Suspects. Those Guys' Derek Lowe and Howards Heroes' Jon Lester each showed a 30+ slot improvement over their draft rank this season. And late selection Scott Baker by the Pronks ended up finishing just outside the top 25 starters.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

you said the champion suspects about rich hill, small typo...

GoodPointJoe said...

Where?

Anonymous said...

sorry rich harden, last paragraph

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