2015 Fantasy Baseball - First Round Busts and Busters

Every year, fantasy baseball sees several new faces at the top of drafts, and every year a couple of last year's heroes turn into this year's zeroes. It's usually difficult to predict this sort of thing, but that's absolutely not my concern. I'm going to make some wild predictions here (potentially more bold than my "bold" predictions) about this year's first round picks, and about some players who aren't in the top two rounds this year, but I foresee making the jump.

First, let's look at who actually is a first-round pick, according to Yahoo:

Yahoo's Top Twelve Players, According to O-Rank

1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
3. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers
5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
6. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
7. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
8. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
9. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
10. Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays
11. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
12. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays

Let's go player-by-player:

1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
3. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers

Barring massive injury, I think these guys are safe bets to stick around at least a few years. Transcendent talents.

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers

Cabrera is interesting, because I really think he's going to do well this year, but it's very likely that he loses 3B going into next year. Probably still a first-round pick, though. He's the best hitter the league has seen since Manny Ramirez.

5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
6. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
7. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
8. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
I expect all four of these guys to remain in the first or early second rounds, depending on their relative performances and health. Goldschmidt, Stanton, and Abreu are all high end power talent, and even though people still mistrust Gomez, he's been a power-speed guy for years now. It's time to buy in.

9. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles

Jones is a tough nut to crack. In a full season, he's almost a lock for .280-90-30-90. His speed is fading, and his plate discipline is zero (he walked just 19 times last year), but consistent power, average, and run production will always have value. I think he'll drop to the second round next year, but no farther than around 18th.

10. Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays

I hate thinking of Jose Bautista as "old" since he's two-and-a-half months younger than me, but the reality is that 34 is pretty old in baseball (maybe this is why it always seems to be sports fans who have midlife crises). If he stays healthy, he's probably got another year or two of top tier production, but his batting average dips in 2012 and 2013 give me pause.

11. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs

I don't trust Rizzo, but he's got fair pedigree. I expect him to regress a little, but still be in the ballpark of .270 and 30 HR, and at his age, that'll keep people buying. I predict other people will have him in the first round again next year, and I predict I still won't.

12. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays

Encarnacion is like his teammate Bautista in a lot of ways. They both had slow starts to their careers, and they both appear to be top-level mashers with modest batting averages. I just don't trust Encarnacion. He has the smell of Adam Dunn to me, and that means while I expect he'll still hit with power, his dropoff in other categories will be precipitous. With a history of back ailments, I think there's a reasonable chance that Edwin could slip again this year, down to a .240-.260 hitting 1B with very good pop. On your draft boards, that's somewhere between David Ortiz (48) and Chris Carter (96).

My bets for dropping out of Yahoo's top round in 2016 are #9 Adam Jones, #10 Jose Bautista, and #12 Edwin Encarnacion. The rest I expect to stick around, again, barring massive injury.

Now for the more fun part: who's taking their spots? Since I have three guys dropping from the first round, I'm going to give you three guys to take their places. And to maximize the fun(/crazy) aspect, I'll only pick people outside of the top 25.


Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers (#36)
It's extremely difficult for a starting pitcher to get into the first round of a fantasy draft. The fact that Kershaw has been securely in the first round for multiple years is pretty remarkable. I think Darvish has that kind of next-level talent. His strikeout rate is fantastic, a must-have for a first round pitcher. While last season was cut short for him because of elbow inflammation, I think he's closer to his 2013 performance at his core. That's 2.83/1.07/.194 batting-average-against, for those of you unwilling to Google the man.

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (#59)
I've never been totally wild about Joey Votto. I'm still not all the way on board with drafting guys who don't really have any speed upside; I always seem to have trouble finding steals. But in today's fantasy baseball world, batting average and run production puts you near the top of the draft. Votto has never hit lower than .297 in any season in which he played at least 100 games, and he still hits in Cincinnati, one of the better hitting ballparks out there. He may suffer from "broken heart syndrome," where people discount him because they got burned drafting him the past couple years, but I think a bounce-back is very possible, and that would put him right in the mix for the first round.

Not crazy enough for you? Alright, well how about...


Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles (#123)
If I'm being honest, I wouldn't bet much money on Machado actually breaking into the top 12 of Yahoo's O-Rank next season. That said, I think there's a ton of room for improvement here, and, just as importantly, I think the fantasy community is ready to believe in him. Machado was a top-tier prospect who's acquitted himself well in the major leagues. He's still just 22, which means there's plenty of time for him to evolve into the type of player he was projected to be. He's never been much of a speedster, but with a reasonable level of improvement, I don't think it's out of the question to see him take a 2006-Matt-Holliday-sized leap forward. A line of .310/100/30/100 is feasible, and at third base, that's first round magic.

So there you have it, my take on the first round this year and next. Stay tuned this season to see how right I was (or on the off chance I was slightly wrong, to harass me for it).

2011 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Draft Analysis

Eddie beat me to the punch, but here's my draft analysis.

Those Guys

• Best pick: Carlos Marmol (1.1)
  As I've said before, sometimes the easiest pick is still the best pick. Blake Griffin was a great pick, and so is Marmol.
  
• Worst pick: Aubrey Huff (7.1)
  Huff doesn't strike me as a guy with a ton of appealing upside. While the 7th round isn't early per se, I'd have liked to see the Guys go after some younger players. Luke Scott and Carlos Lee are similar players, and both went three rounds later.
• Overall Draft Grade: B-
  The whole draft seemed like a draft by a team that felt it was ready to compete: two closers early, Vlad Guerrero and Tim Hudson in the 4th and 5th, and more veterans to fill in the lineup/rotation. A good fit for some teams, but Those Guys seem at least a year away. I would've liked to see more risks, more youth.
  

Vandelay Industries

• Best pick: Carl Pavano (14.3)
  Pavano's had more bad years than good ones, but seems to have found a home in Minnesota. Can you trust him? Probably not. But landing a guy who could be as good as Tim Hudson in the last round is nice value.
  
• Worst pick: Carlos Quentin (6.3)
  I just hate him.
• Overall Draft Grade: C
  So much of this draft relies on the first two guys, neither of whom is a sure thing. But, if Carlos Santana grows up fast, and Pablo Sandoval bounces back, the draft could be looking a lot better in 2 months. And, like Eddie said, Vandelay used their draft picks to dramatically upgrade their keepers.
  

Riders of Rohan

• Best pick: Austin Jackson (11.2)
  I see him as better-hitting Curtis Granderson with a little less pop. Eight rounds later, that sounds good.
• Worst pick: Paul Konerko (2.2)
  It's not that Konerko is some nightmare player, or a bad bet. He's a consistent veteran power source. I just know I didn't want to take him there, and I was frustrated when I did.
• Overall Draft Grade: B+
  I like my balance between young players and proven commodities. It sounds like Drew Storen is having about the worst spring training possible, but other than him, I'm excited to see how things pan out.
  

Dunedain Rangers

• Best pick: Adam Jones (9.4)
  After 2009, Jones was a mega-hyped star-in-the-making. You're telling me that after a similar 2010, we've suddenly given up on him? Kudos to the Rangers for swooping in.
  
• Worst pick: Chad Billingsley (2.4)
  Initially this was going to be Gio Gonzalez. Then I realized Billingsley is similar to Gonzalez, but got picked five rounds earlier. So there you go.
• Overall Draft Grade: B+
  The early picks were a little bland, but I completely loved the back half of their draft. Tabata and Jones specifically were really good value.
  

Howard's Heroes

• Best pick: Brett Gardner (3.5)
  A lot of people are going to disagree with me here, but the rumors of Gardner leading off make a lot of sense. And if he's there, Gardner's a prize.
  
• Worst pick - Tim Stauffer (6.5)
  If I'm being perfectly honest, I don't know enough about Stauffer to really dismiss him. I see he's a former first round pick, #4 overall in 2003. But 2003 was a while ago. I could see Stauffer not being drafted at all, which means the sixth round is way too early.
• Overall Draft Grade: C-
  I just wasn't excited about most of the guys the Heroes picked up in the draft. Gardner's a nice player, and several of his guys should be solid, but nobody gets me excited.
  

DamKnights

• Best pick: Trevor Cahill (4.6)
  Cahill factored into keeper discussions for his former team, the Heroes. The fact that the DamKnights were able to scoop him up in the fourth was a nice surprise for them.
  
• Worst pick: Nick Markakis (2.6)
  I used to have Markakis. He was part of my championship squad. But with 138 doubles and only 50 homers over the past three years, it's starting to look like he might just have warning track power.
• Overall Draft Grade: C
  I like a lot of the later pieces, but the early picks seemed to go way too safe. Bryce Harper is a nice pickup, though.
  

Stewies SexyParties

• Best pick: Homer Bailey (9.7)
  Post All-Star break numbers: 10 starts, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 59 Ks in 58.1 IP. And how's this for a surprise: Bailey's still only 25.
  
• Worst pick - Adam Lind (6.7)
  I feel similar to Lind as I feel about Huff. The difference is that Lind at least has a crazy good season in his recent history. Still, I think the sixth round is too early to be taking a flier on a guy who could just be a .260/20/80 player.
• Overall Draft Grade: A-
  A lot of responsible picks by the SexyParties, with enough pizazz sprinkled in to keep things exciting. The lack of saves is a temporary concern, but it's always a concern, even if you draft a few closers.
  

Akron Pronks

• Best pick: Brandon League (13.8)
  It's always nice when you can get some value out of your very late picks, and League is a nice pull. I don't expect a season of production out of him, but he could steal some saves while David Aardsma recovers.
  
• Worst pick - Carlos Pena (7.8)
  I haven't made my distaste for Pena a secret. Plus, the Pronks really just needed another potential 20/20 guy. Jose Tabata, Adam Jones, and Torii Hunter were all still available.
• Overall Draft Grade: B
  I don't think the Pronks got great value anywhere, but they got decent value and pretty much every pick. That sort of performance gives us a B on the report card.
  

Mercer AutoWreckers

• Best pick: Rajai Davis (10.9)
  I don't think Davis is a fantastic real-life baseball player, but with an everyday opportunity, you can count on a lot of steals and a solid average. Good pickup.
  
• Worst pick: Ricky Romero (4.9)
  I don't like that he's being thrust into the #1 starter role, I don't like that he pitches in the AL East, in Toronto, and overall I just don't like him. I liked both of the next two picks (Colby Lewis and Phil Hughes) better than Romero.
• Overall Draft Grade: B-
  It was a pretty boring draft by the AutoWreckers. That usually means solid picks, and they were, but I think they could've had a little more fun.
  

Feisty Mosquitoes

• Best pick: Chris Young (12.10)
  He's got some injury history, but he's generally been very good when healthy. The Mets are a bloodbath, but he might be a fine starter this year.
  
• Worst pick: Howie Kendrick (11.10)
  It's kind of tough to declare an eleventh round pick as a "bad pick," but Kendrick seems like a minimally valuable player. I just don't like spending a draft pick (any draft pick) on a guy whose most valuable asset is being a .295-hitting second baseman.
• Overall Draft Grade: B-
  I like the offense they kept, but look at the starters they drafted: Jaime Garcia, Jordan Zimmermann, Johan Santana, Chris Young, Carlos Zambrano. Would've liked to see them find someone with a little less volatility...anyone.
  

The Usual Suspects

• Best pick: Juan Pierre (9.11)
  I'm learning that I seem to like speed picks, with Gardner, Davis, and now Pierre. But it's a tough task to find enough speed when just putting together talent. Having a 50-steal weapon like Pierre in your arsenal gives you a nice way to make up ground.
  
• Worst pick: Josh Beckett (3.11)
  Beckett's a nice enough player, with upside and downside, as most players have. But I feel like I'd have been happier with a lot of the pitchers who went in the next couple rounds (Matusz, Cahill, Matt Garza, Lewis, Hughes, John Danks, Ian Kennedy).
• Overall Draft Grade: A-
  I really didn't think much of the Beckett pick, but the Suspects got really good value at pretty much every other pick. The two catcher picks were a little mystifying, but individually, even they were alright.
  

Cleveland Enforcers

• Best pick: Lance Berkman (12.12)
  Berkman's 2008 line: .312, 114 R, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 18 SB. I trust any lineup with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday to give a guy like Berkman a good chance to succeed. See Ryan Ludwick.
  
• Worst pick - Geovany Soto (4.12) / Manny Ramirez (9.12)
  The Enforcers let us all know that Soto was a mistake pick, so while it was definitely their worst pick, I figured I should pick another. Ramirez was great in 2008, but since then he's seemed to just not have his head on straight. Tampa's lineup isn't as good as you might think; I have trouble seeing Manny bounce back.
• Overall Draft Grade: C+
  The Soto error really hurt the flow (and caliber) of their draft, but they came back to find some nice players. I think they found some good pieces, though, particularly Gordon Beckham, Aramis Ramirez, and Berkman, along with some decent upside in Mike Moustakas and Domonic Brown.
  

Middle Earth Draft Review: 2011

Joey wrote up draft grades last year and I thought it was pretty neat to see another person's opinion on the draft. I picked a best and worse pick and also assigned a grade. I think overall I was pretty hard with grades. No one received an A or A+. I thought to receive a grade that high I had to be blown away by value with ever pick. Also if you have one arm or beat me out for first I probably knocked you down a few. Get over it.

Those Guys:

• Best Pick - Carlos Marmol (1.1). As the attempted trade right as keeper lists demonstrates, Marmol is a keeper talent. His k/9 is one of the highest baseball has ever seen.

• Worse Pick - Aubrey Huff (7.1). I understand the big post season leading into a big year idea, however with OF, 1B, and Util full and only 3 SP on the roster at this point I think getting an SP might have been a better pick.

• Grade: B- : I like the early picks of Marmol, Rivera, and Prado. However after the Ervin Santana pick I was not a huge huge fan.

Vandelay Industries

• Best pick - Carlos Santana (1.3). In my mind, with Wainwright out for the season, Vandelay needed to go young and upside. That is what this pick did. He gives a chance for a lot of production out of a weak position and a keeper for years to come.

• Worse Pick - Chris Coghlan (12.2) I know Drew grew up playing Dabl with Chris so maybe thats why he picked him. A pretty impressive rookie campaign was followed up by a so-so 2nd year. He should improve on his numbers but without a ton of speed or power there is limited upside.

• Grade C+ : You can look at Drew's draft and not be impressed by the talent but, many high picks were traded to beef up his keepers. While the draft suffered the additions of Weeks, Ubaldo, Miggy, and Greinke set him up for years to come.

Riders of Rohan

• Best Pick - Brett Myers (6.2) Brett Myers has always had the talent to be a very reliable fantasy starter. Will he get a lot of wins... No, but solid K and ERA numbers are likely.

• Worse Pick - Rafeal Furcal (3.3) Maybe people would argue with SS being so swallow this pick needed to be made. I'm someone who never pays for position. Furcal has played over 100 games once in last three years. Rather have a closer and go with Scutaro as starter.

• B- : Its not that I hate any of the picks Joe made. I just didn't love any of them either. Maybe they are just not my kind of players but with 2nd pick I was left wanting more.

Dunedain Rangers

• Best Pick - Madison Bumgarner (5.4). I think Hughes over Bumgarner may be the choice I am least happy with in my draft. With a weak hitting division and good stuff I see Bumgarner being slightly better across the board other than wins.

• Worse Pick -Angel Pagan (6.4). Pagan had good numbers last year with close to 40 steals. However his 2nd half was weak with .264 avg and .304 OBP. I think his real production falls closer to his 2nd half.

• Grade A- : I liked this draft a lot. Garrett was able to identify and acquire a lot of talent. Bumgarner, Gio, Tabalta, Jones, and Jennings are all guys with upside. Add in solid value picks of Cuddyer, Edwin Jackson, Kelly Johnson, and you have a very good draft.

Howards Hero's

• Best Pick - Mike Napoli (4.5) During the draft I did not care for this pick at all. However looking at his situation I think he will get more AB in Texas. He also kills the ball in Texas with a HR/AB of 6.6. 30HR upside at C... yea that sounds like a good pick.

• Worse Pick - Ian Desmond (3.9) This goes back to the problem I had with the Furcal pick. However at least Joey started a run (three ss taken round 3) Nick finished it. I hate finishing runs. There was not be another SS taken for 4 rounds.

• Grade B : I wasn't blown away by the Stauffer or Desmond selections (probably NL MVP candidates after saying that) but other than that Nick was able to get good young starting pitchers and a lot of saves. Also Bedard.... come on this is his year. Solid all around draft.

Dam Knight

• Best Pick- Bryce Harper (13.6). Will he play? Maybe not. But with a young team and a 2nd to last round pick whats the risk? All upside and could lead to a steal in years to come.

• Worse Pick- Brian Fuentes (11.6). Obviously the injury news with Bailey has changed the perception of this pick however looking at this at the time of the pick I think a good middle reliever in the 11th round seemed like a random pick

• Grade C+ : I liked several picks a lot: Harper, Peavy, and Scott. However the rest of the draft had more stable guys than upside. With a young rebuilding team I would like to see more risks. Harper was a start but I wanted a little more.

Stewies SexyParties

• Best Pick - Carlos Lee (10.7). I've heard everything you have. He doesn't work out, terrible commitment etc. However for a guy to hit below .300 for the first time in five years and it to be 60 pts below seems like an outlier. Plus with such a late pick even if he's 25 90 again its solid value.

• Worse Pick - Rafael Soriano (7.7). I have come around to the whole solid relief innings over the past few years. And I do believe that Soriano will give you that. However with closers (Nunez, Gregg) and SP (Zimmerman, Chacin, Floyd) it seemed a little early for him.

• Grade A- : I hate you Mike Plundo... but God Dammit do I respect you. Solid picks from start to finish, really only Soriano pick out of place. I like Lee, Garza and Granderson among others.

Akron Pronks

• Best Pick - Brett Anderson (3.8). Anderson was very good when he was healthy last year. I worry a little because 30% of his starts were vs Sea but even taking that into account his numbers were good. Going into keeper lists I had him just outside my top 8. Mandi got him after 44 other players were selected. Injury will decide how this pick is viewed but at the moment I like it.

• Worse Pick- Carlos Pena (7.8) "Am I really this desperate for power"... "Akron Pronks select Carlos Pena 1B CHC." What a fateful 30 seconds. I hate low avg guys. I feel like avg is the toughest thing to project and because of that the hardest to pick up during season. I think the .197 avg would have scared people away for several rounds. As principal Skinner says, "Prove me wrong kids... Prove me wrong"

• Grade B : I liked a lot of what Mandi did. I think Broxton has a small place in his heart and was picked a little early but he backed it up with Kuo later. In my opinion Pena is a brain fart on an otherwise very successful draft.

Mercer Autowreckers

• Best Pick - Jhoulys Chacin (7.9). With any Colorado pitcher there is a ceiling. However with a 130+ ip and a good ERA and K rate it looks like he might be the real deal. I think he will take a step back overall. Expect flashes of 7 IP 9 K games with the occasional clunker. Still a solid value at round 7.

• Worse Pick - David Aardsma (8.9). When making this pick I think Chip thought he was healthy.... which is not the case. If he comes back in May it won't be a bad pick but with injury there is always a cause for concern.

• Grade C+ : Overall good. However I look over Chip's draft and only see one maybe two guys that have keeper upside. Added stable talent to a very talented keeper list.

Feisty Mosquitoes

• Best Pick - Chris Young (12.10) Chris Young was very good in his short season (including 2 away from Petco) with SD last year. Is there a chance he breaks down after 50-75 IP? Yes. But at round 12 to get a chance at a solid starter with a team lacking in that department I think it was a very good pick.

• Worse Pick - Howie Kendrick (11.10) In the eleventh round you really can't be too hard on any pick. However with the makeup of the mosquitoes I found it odd to pick Kendrick in this spot. Phillips is young and healthy and 1B was open. I think Berkman or Laroche would have been better options to start at 1B. (My first pick here was Chapman.... but who am I to knock someone taking a young guy with high upside. :) )

• Grade B- : I like the talent but Mosquitoes are banking on finding a lot SP on waiver wire. I'm not in love with Garcia and almost every other pitcher is coming over a serious injury or has injury concerns. However without risk there is no reward.

The Usual Suspects

• Best Pick - Michael Pineda \ John Lackey (13.11 14.11) I like both these picks for difference reasons. I wanted get some solid depth to the back of my rotation.

1. Pineda was one of the top prospect pitchers on my board. He tore through AA last year and has dynamic stuff. There is a question of getting on the roster but with a solid spring I think he might get a chance.
2. In Lackey I saw a perfect bounce back pick. He has always been a solid pitcher that gets wins. If I avoid starts bad matchups (vs NYY etc) I think I can get a good amount out of this last round pick.

• Worse Pick- Miguel Montero (7.11). I did something I always hate to do... I paid for position. Don't get me wrong I think a healthy Montero could hit 18 and 70 over a season but I don't know that I needed to pay a 7th round pick for it. Next catcher taken was Jesus Montero... by me. Did I get the last catcher on a tier or just over pay?

• Grade B+ : Probably closer to a B- with objective critic but I like my guys... that's why I picked them. I would have done a few things differently but I like my depth a SP and flexibility to have 50+ SB guy backing up OF. Hill is a risk but with such a late pick not a lot to pay if it works out.

Cleveland Enforcers

• Best Pick - Lance Berkman (12.12) St. Louis seems like a perfect place for Berkman to rebound. Lance struggled last year between Hou and NY. Was that age and injury catching up with him? Maybe but with such a late pick I like the upside.

• Worse Pick - Geovany Soto (4.12) Joey later told me that this was a mistake pick by Mike. Just like with Chip he would probably be first to say its not his favorite.

• Grade B : Enforcers went much younger than I thought he needed to. Carrying two catchers and possibly 2 minor leaguers could put a strain on the roster. Keeper SP will need a repeat of last year or could be an area of need.

I didn't see any team really make bonehead picks or anyone pull away from the league. The difference between a C+ and a B is probably only my personal feeling on players. Without a title to my name what the hell do I know. Every year I think the draft its harder and harder to get an advantage.

Any comments on draft? Did it occur too early or late? Miss pre-draft?

Good Luck in the upcoming season.

2011 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Keeper Analysis

I did this last year, and it was fun, and a good exercise for me, so I'm doing it again. I'll be assigning point values to each team's eight keepers. The max value for any one player is 10, the minimum is 0, so the maximum total keeper score is 80. We'll go in draft order.

One note: there was a single trade between the submission of keeper lists and the draft. After some debate, I've decided to rate the keeper lists AFTER the trade. That is, these are the keeper lists as they stood going into the draft.

Here we go.

Those Guys

• Adrian Gonzalez, 1B - 10 points
  As I suggested last year, leaving San Diego was going to be a boon for him. Now that he's gone (and into one of the best lineups in baseball), I expect big things.
• Alex Rodriguez, 3B - 8 points
  He's getting a little older, and his production has slipped a bit, but he's still one of the most consistently productive players in fantasy.
• Mike Stanton, OF - 5 points
  I don't love him this year, but he looks to have Adam Dunn upside, and in a keeper league, you bet a lot on upside.
• Shane Victorino, OF - 5 points
  He's a speed guy who pitches in on run production and a little bit on power. And his lineup is stacked.
• Bobby Abreu, OF - 4 points
  Even a slight bounce back on batting average would make Abreu a big time asset this year. But, long term, it's unlikely he produces enough for long enough to be justified.
• Josh Johnson, SP - 7 points
  He had a career year last year, but you've got to be a little cautious with a guy who's missed as much time as Johnson. Still, the ability is there.
• Jonathan Sanchez, SP - 4 points
  I drafted Sanchez, so obviously I'm a fan. He also had a career year, but the strikeouts have always been great. No reason to think he can't build on last year and be solid again.
  
• Daniel Hudson, SP - 4 points
  He was utterly dominant after being traded to the Diamondbacks. He's got a very limited track record, but there are reasons to be excited about this youngster.
  

Riders of Rohan

• Prince Fielder, 1B - 7 points
  The power is there, and it will be there, but he's kind of tough to project outside of that. And he's also kind of tough to project within that. As in, will he hit 35, or will he hit 48?
• Ian Kinsler, 2B - 6 points
  So much potential, and some of it realized, but the constant injuries are beginning to wear on fantasy owners. Me, mostly.
• Evan Longoria, 3B - 10 points
  He's an across-the-board producer at a non-outfield position; that makes him pretty damn good.
• Matt Kemp, OF - 8 points
  The attitude concerns are there, but so it a plethora of talent. Power, speed, average, the whole package could be in there, somewhere.
  
• Jose Bautista, 3B/OF - 5 points
  Will he be able to repeat his power explosion from 2010? Probably not. But golly, he was good last year.
• Alex Rios, OF - 6 points
  Ozzie Guillen's infatuation with the stolen base should continue to prove useful for Rios owners.
• Jon Lester, SP - 8 points
  Great strikeouts, great wins, good averages.
• Clayton Kershaw, SP - 7 points
  Maybe even better than Lester, but he still has trouble getting decisions. Eventually, though, I'd expect him to figure it out.

Vandelay Industries

• Miguel Cabrera, 1B - 10 points
  Alcohol questions aside, Cabrera is legitimately the best hitter in the American League.
• Rickie Weeks, 2B - 6 points
  Weeks is impossible to value in all circumstances. Six points just seemed like the most reasonable "I don't know" amount
• Elvis Andrus, SS - 4 points
  If shortstop wasn't so weak, Andrus would rate lower. He's really a two-category producer at this point: runs and steals.
• Ichiro Suzuki, OF - 4 points
  Take Andrus, add in batting average, but remove SS eligibility, and you've got Ichiro. Something tells me he'll get some more RBIs this year, though.
• Zack Greinke, SP - 6 points
  He's in a situation considerably better than he was in Kansas City, and the talent is all there for a rebound...or a meltdown. Should be fun to watch either way.
• Ubaldo Jimenez, SP - 7 points
  Ridiculous first half, solid second half. Similar overall numbers are pretty reasonable, though.
• Yovani Gallardo, SP - 5 points
  Awesome strikeout numbers, but he lets an awful lot of guys get on base. Something's going to give eventually, one way or the other.
• Adam Wainwright, SP - 1 point
  I'm less negative on this keep than other people, but it's definitely a tough one. He's a superstar pitcher, but when you KNOW he's not playing this year...though call.

Dunedain Rangers

• Buster Posey, C/1B - 6 points
  I like Posey. But he's getting drafted in the 3rd round based on two-thirds of a season of solid production. I want to see more before I invest that kind of pick.
• Adam Dunn, 1B - 4 points
  Defense doesn't count, so that's good. And he's one of the safest picks in the game.
• Adrian Beltre, 3B - 4 points
  He hit .334 in 2004, then hit .255, .268, .276, .266, and .265 before hitting .321 last year. I'm not paying for a .300 average, and without that, he's just a decent third baseman.
  
• Hunter Pence, OF - 5 points
  He seems to get undervalued, but getting 25 HR and 14 SB with a .282 average in back to back seasons seems pretty decent to me.
• Jay Bruce, OF - 4 points
  He dramatically improved his batting average, but his power rate slipped. If he can ever put it all together, he'll be great, but I'm not holding my breath.
• Dan Haren, SP - 6 points
  He had trouble early last season, but bounced back in a big way after being traded to the Angels. I'd count on 3.00, 1.15, 175 Ks and 15 wins.
• Jered Weaver, SP - 7 points
  He's becoming less and less hittable each year. I like that kind of trend.
• Neftali Feliz, SP/RP - 4 points
  I like Feliz at closer because he's a known commodity there, but if he can translate his success to starting pitching, his value goes up.
  

Howard's Heroes (or whatever his name is this week)

• Ryan Howard, 1B - 8 points
  He's basically the same as Prince Fielder, except you trust him a little more because of his crazy good lineup
• Mark Teixeira, 1B - 8 points
  I'm a believer in Teixeira. I know he's been up and down in New York, but I just can't see him not succeeding.
• Dan Uggla, 2B - 8 points
  I tried to tell you all, Uggla's the man. A slide down to about .265 wouldn't shock me, but 30 HR and 90 runs and RBIs at second base is effin' good.
• Mark Reynolds, 3B - 3 points
  I don't know, maybe he'll be good? He's the biggest question mark on a team full of them.
• Jacoby Ellsbury, OF - 6 points
  If he can stay healthy, I'd expect 60 steals and 100 runs, with a .300-ish average.
• Matt Cain, SP - 5 points
  He's evolved into a nice little pitcher. And, he won't have to match up against other aces, which is always nice.
• Wandy Rodriguez, SP - 3 points
  Wandy's a tough guy to figure out. But at this point, I see him as just a useful pitcher...not so much a keeper.
• (no 8th keeper) - 2 points
  Getting the supplemental pick isn't worthless.
  

Columbus DamKnights

• Joe Mauer, C - 7 points
  He may have regressed on the power numbers from 2009, but a great batting average and good run production are givens with Mauer.
• Justin Morneau, 1B - 8 points
  We're all pulling for Morneau to get past his concussion and get back to concussing baseballs. What? Too soon?
• Robinson Cano, 2B - 9 points
  Cano's a very nice player, and appears to be a legitimate .315 hitter. I'm just not ready to push him into that tenth point just yet.
• Corey Hart, OF - 4 points
  There was a point when Hart was all the rage as a power/speed guy. But last year, he mostly hit home runs...mostly.
• Grady Sizemore, OF - 3 points
  What can you say about Sizemore? We know he's got speed and power. We don't know if he's healthy, or if he'll ever hit .280 again.
• Ricky Nolasco, SP - 4 points
  Might be this year's Jonathan Sanchez?
• Jeremy Hellickson, SP - 4 points
  Uber pitching prospect who flashed his stuff last year. I'm in.
• Joe Nathan, RP - 2 points
  His spring has been encouraging so far, but coming back from surgery is always risky.

Stewies SexyParties

• Chase Utley, 2B - 8 points
  Healthy, Utley is worth 10 points easy, but it seems like this knee injury has legs.
• Pedro Alvarez, 3B - 5 points
  He's supposed to be the real deal, and he's already shown major league pop. He doesn't have to improve much to be keeper-worthy again next year.
• Hanley Ramirez, SS - 10 points
  The best.
• Ryan Braun, OF - 10 points
  Just a great producer. His power numbers were down last year, but I see that as fluky, not cause for concern.
• Andrew McCutchen, OF - 8 points
  Don't undervalue McCutchen. He's potentially a plus in every category except RBIs, and he's still only 24.
• Colby Rasmus, OF - 5 points
  Two full seasons, but he's still just a .263 career hitter, and hasn't shown much speed. Might be more similar to Jay Bruce than we anticipated.
• Cliff Lee, SP - 8 points
  He's been all around the world in the past few years, but he's posted great numbers everywhere. Now that he's happy and settled, I expect him to really hit stride.
• Roy Oswalt, SP - 7 points
  Uh oh. You know what we did? We forgot how good Oswalt can be.

Akron Pronks

• Victor Martinez, C/1B - 8 points
  He should be going ahead of Posey in every draft. You know why? Because Posey's upside is Martinez.
• Kevin Youkilis, 1B - 7 points
  He should pick up 3B eligibility early this season, and his contributions in runs, RBIs, and batting average should only go up with the additions to the Red Sox lineup.
• Kendrys Morales, 1B - 5 points
  Yahoo says it's Kendrys now. Anyways, he's already got one great season and a tragic injury on his resume. All he needs now is a bounce back and he'll have a movie made about him.
  
• Brian Roberts, 2B - 4 points
  Back injuries are always cause for concern, but if he's able to straighten things out, he's a great option at a thin position.
• Shin-Soo Choo, OF - 7 points
  You can only go .300-80-20-80-20 so many times before people start betting on it. Two, actually. The number is two.
• Jayson Werth, OF - 6 points
  I don't expect Werth to hit .296 again (he's a career .272 hitter), but the rest of last year's numbers seem in line, even in a weaker Nationals lineup.
• Drew Stubbs, OF - 5 points
  Way too many strikeouts, but he's still young. Another guy I should have never dropped.
• Tim Lincecum, SP - 9 points
  Other than an 0-5, 7.82/1.82 August, Lincecum was tremendous again last season. I've still got him rated as a top 5 pitcher.

Mercer AutoWreckers

• Brian McCann, C - 5 points
  It's tough to get consistent play out of a catcher, and McCann is one of the most reliable guys out there. The Wreckers did pay a ton for him, though.
• Joey Votto, 1B - 10 points
  He's a slightly leaner Miguel Cabrera.
• Dustin Pedroia, 2B - 6 points
  Injuries ended his season last year, but he appears fully healthy and ready to do his part in the stacked Boston offense.
• Derek Jeter, SS - 6 points
  Even a repeat of last year's "down" performance (.270-111-10-67-18) would be very solid, considering this year's crop of shortstops.
• Andre Ethier, OF - 4 points
  We're all still waiting for Ethier to put it all together. Maybe Don Mattingly is the guy to help him do it?
• Roy Halladay, SP - 10 points
  No starting pitcher is better.
• Felix Hernandez, SP - 10 points
  But Felix comes close.
• Heath Bell, RP - 4 points
  He may still just be a closer, but another great year adds "proven" to his list of characteristics.

Feisty Mosquitoes

• Brandon Phillips, 2B - 6 points
  He'll hit about .270 with about 20 homers and about 20 steals. At second base, that works.
  
• Ryan Zimmerman, 3B - 5 points
  I think Zimmerman's a fine player, but he might be one of the more overrated guys in fantasy baseball. He'll be solid, but unspectacular.
• Troy Tulowitzki, SS - 10 points
  It's tough to trust him to stay healthy, but even missing 40 games last year, Tulo was extremely good. Expect more good things.
• Carl Crawford, OF - 10 points
  You can't tell me that Crawford's value will go down in that lineup. You just can't.
• Matt Holliday, OF - 8 points
  This cat can hit. Oh, and batting next to Albert Pujols never hurt anybody's numbers.
• Justin Upton, OF - 7 points
  The guy is just 23 years old. If he can play 150+ games in 2011, he's basically a lock for 25-25.
• CC Sabathia, SP - 8 points
  Sort of like Adam Dunn, CC's reliability gets undervalued sometimes. He's had at least 17 wins and 197 strikeouts in each of the past four seasons.
• Stephen Strasburg, SP - 1 point
  Mostly the Mosquitoes get a point for guts. Strasburg is out until at least September.
  

The Usual Suspects

• Albert Pujols, 1B - 10 points
  Seriously, let's argue about this.
• David Wright, 3B - 9 points
  I'm willing to look at Wright's down 2009 as an anomaly as long as he is.
• Jimmy Rollins, SS - 5 points
  Tough to make a call on Rollins. His upside still puts him as a potential 25/40 player, but he's been way off of that recently.
• Nelson Cruz, OF - 5 points
  If you look at Cruz's numbers, you're going to be surprised. He might pull it all together this year and challenge for the MVP.
• Jason Heyward, OF - 6 points
  Heyward really seemed to settle in during the second half of 2010. All the physical tools are there to take the next step. Matt Kemp upside is what I see.
• Justin Verlander, SP - 7 points
  Back to back fantastic seasons means Verlander's legit...probably. Have to wonder what happened in 2008, though.
• Tommy Hanson, SP - 6 points
  Hanson's got all the makings of a star, and his August and September were just filthy. Of course, plenty of guys can be stars; let's see if he can come through.
• Mat Latos, SP - 6 points
  Latos was remarkable last season, a plus in all the starting pitching categories. I expect a bit of a letdown, but it's tough to be that good and not be mostly legit...heck, even Jeff D'Amico couldn't put up those kind of Ks.

Cleveland Enforcers

• Jose Reyes, SS - 8 points
  Health is a minor concern, the lineup is a minor concern, but the player is good. Very good.
• Carlos Gonzalez, OF - 9 points
  I've read a few articles that try to temper Gonzalez's insane 2010 season, but those kinds of numbers don't just happen. Not all of them at once.
• Josh Hamilton, OF - 8 points
  One of the harder high-end players to judge, Hamilton showed last year that he can be among the best. I choose to bank on his talent and competitiveness.
• B.J. Upton, OF - 4 points
  Upton is not a power hitter. He averaged 15.5 homers per season over the past four years (in an average of 143 games per season). He's fine for steals, anything else is gravy.
• Cole Hamels, SP - 6 points
  Nice rebound after a frustrating 2009. However, his win-loss record seems awfully unimpressive for a team averaging 94 wins over the last three years.
• David Price, SP - 7 points
  Listen to these home numbers for Price: 9-2, 107 Ks in 114.2 IP, 1.96 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. Who knew orange juice was so good for you?
• Francisco Liriano, SP - 4 points
  Liriano seems to be fully healthy and recovered from arm surgery that cost him the entire 2007 season, but he may never be the same again.
• Max Scherzer, SP - 4 points
  Because there weren't enough guys I bailed on that ended up being good. Thanks Max.
  

Here are the standings in order of total points, along with the change from last year (and here's a link to last year's article, for your reference):

1. Stewies SexyParties - 61 points (+1 from last year)
2. Riders of Rohan - 57 points (-8)
   
3. Feisty Mosquitoes - 55 points (-7)
   
4. Mercer AutoWreckers - 55 points (+3)
   
5. The Usual Suspects - 54 points (+4)
   
6. Akron Pronks - 51 points (-3)
   
7. Cleveland Enforcers - 50 points (+1)
   
8. Those Guys - 47 points (+2)
   
9. Vandelay Industries - 43 points (-8)
   
10. Howard's Heroes - 43 points (-16)
    
11. Columbus DamKnights - 41 points (-7)
    
12. Dunedain Rangers - 40 points (+1)
    

Just from a cursory glance, it looks like I was harder on guys this year. Most teams went down, some a lot, including my own. That probably means that teams who went up at all this year are in fact dramatically improved, while teams that went down are probably not actually that much worse.

Fantasy Baseball 2011 - First Round

Two years ago I did a mental exercise of sorts and drafted my own first and second rounds of a 12-team fantasy baseball league. I didn't do it last year, but I'm ready to have another go. Again, I only do the first couple rounds, because I don't want to give away any of my personal information about guys I might be targeting when my ultra-competitive keeper league drafts this Saturday. But the first two rounds are the kind of hardball decisions that can make or break a draft. So let's get down to it.

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins - I'll summarize my argument for taking Ramirez over Albert Pujols. Shortstop is miserable this year. Hanley is an across-the-board producer at the game's weakest non-catcher position.

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals - Pujols is the epitome of reliability. His .312 average last year was actually 19 points lower than his career average. The guy is a hitting machine, and you won't be unhappy with him, even if you take him first.

3. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - This is where your draft list gets a lot tougher. So I'll repeat: shortstop is miserable this year. Tulowitzki has had a couple of really nice seasons, and just a filthy September: .322, 30 R, 15 HR, 40 RBI. Even after only playing 18 games in June and July, his season was good enough to rate in the top 25 in Yahoo's ranking system. If he can stay healthy, it looks like he's the real deal, and his wide contributions at a thin position make him one of the more useful guys out there.

4. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds - Almost every list I saw coming into this season actually had Miguel Cabrera at #3, behind Pujols and Ramirez. The thing is, Votto has all the pedigree that Cabrera has, he puts up the same kind of numbers, but he's got the ability to contribute on the basepaths as well. Add in the question marks that we're hearing about Cabrera's drinking issues, which could cost him some playing time this season, and I think Votto is a decidedly better pick this season.

5. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays - Third base isn't quite shortstop, but it's still a fairly tough position to fill. And Longoria is another 5 category contributor who's valuable no matter where you play him. It's also worth mentioning that his 22 home runs last year were actually a career low. An uptick back to around 30 HR is completely reasonable. Partner that with a .285 average, 100 runs and RBI, and the potential for double-digit steals, and I think we're happy.

6. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers - Listen, on a basic, baseball-only level, Cabrera is better than everybody except for Pujols. He's a fantastic hitter with tremendous power, and he posts stats every year, without fail. But there are two small factors that pull Cabrera down from #3 to #6 in my book. First, the aforementioned alcohol issues. I'm not too concerned with it affecting his on-field performance (it doesn't seem to have ever had an impact in the past), but with the legal system being involved again, there's the chance of missing some time. Second, he's still a first basemen. I mean that in two regards: he's only 1B eligible, and he doesn't steal any bases.

7. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies - This is one spot where I tend to differ from general fantasy baseball opinions. Most people will have Robinson Cano as their #1 second baseman. But Utley is a completely proven commodity, who from 2005-2009 averaged the following stat line: .301, 111 R, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 15 SB. He was injured for part of last year, but came back and looked fine. He had 8 multi-hit games in September. I'll bet on Utley every time.

8. Carl Crawford, OF, Red Sox - A lot of people are going to tell you that Crawford's speed numbers will go down because he'll end up batting 2nd or 3rd in the Red Sox lineup. Those people are retarded. Crawford batted in the two-hole 408 times last year, and in the three-hole 192 times. Will he steal 50 bases? Probably not. But he's a very skilled hitter with pop and speed, and he's going into a lineup that might be the best in baseball. I'd expect a broad range of statistical contributions.

9. David Wright, 3B, Mets - Two years ago, David Wright was a "question mark." His power dipped to 10 HR and 72 RBI, his steals spiked to 27, but his batting average stayed high (.307). In 2010, Wright got back to his normal line, though he posted the lowest average of his career at .283. I trust the overall package, though. Wright will always find a way to be a fantasy force, even if his team is in constant disarray. Constant, extreme disarray.

10. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies - Alright, chances are he's not going to go 34-26 again. And it's almost a certainty that his batting average will drop off from the crazy .336 he hit last year. The thing is..."almost"..."chances are"...but what if? He certainly showed that he has the capacity to be a nightmare for opposing pitchers, and a ridiculous fantasy contributor (#1 ranked player in Yahoo last season). I wouldn't necessarily recommend Gonzalez as a pick for everybody here, but if you're pretty confident in your ability to draft down the board, his upside is tremendous.

11. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers - Ever since he came into the league, Braun has been a spectacularly steady producer for fantasy owners. Very good power, good speed, career .307 hitter, plenty of run production. Basically, Braun is exactly what you're looking for if Carlos Gonzalez looked too risky for you.

12. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox - This tier of first basemen is a little tough to analyze, until you actually start to consider the difference in Gonzalez's situation between last year and this year. In 2010, Gonzalez hit 36 points higher on the road, and hit 20 HR away from Petco, versus just 11 in San Diego. Partner that with the fact that he goes from the Padres (22nd in the majors in runs scored) to the Red Sox (2nd), and you're looking at a very real chance of a .300-110-35-110 season out of Gonzalez...as a floor.

Why I'm Taking Hanley Over Pujols

As you might have been able to tell from the title of this post, I'm assuming some level of knowledge with regards to fantasy baseball among readers of this article. If you're uninterested in fantasy baseball, you're probably better off waiting until April, when the NFL draft comes around, and the NHL season draws to a close.

Every list I look at has Albert Pujols as its #1 player. He's the consensus first player that should come off the board in every league. And really, you can never go wrong acquiring Albert Pujols. He's a megastar, unquestionably the best hitter in baseball. He gives you batting average, runs, home runs, and RBI, all in spades, and even tosses in a couple steals, because why not?

But if it's me with the #1 overall pick, or setting up a top __ list, or deciding how to allocate my auction funds, Hanley Ramirez is at the top of my rankings. Since it'd be a pretty boring post if I didn't, I'll explain why.

(By the way, this article assumes a 12-team league. In a 10-team league, position eligibility loses some of its importance, and I think makes it a dead heat between Hanley and Pujols).

We'll start with a look at their stats. These are their average 5x5 stats over the past five years (starting with Hanley's first full season):

Ramirez: .313, 112 runs, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 39 SB
Pujols: .330, 111 runs, 41 HR, 122 RBI, 9 SB

Obviously you're ecstatic with either of those lines. Hanley gives you across the board plus production other than RBI, and Pujols will post outstanding numbers in four different categories. Based purely on numbers, you're probably leaning towards Pujols, and that's perfectly reasonable. You're thinking, "Oh, I can just draft Michael Bourn in the 11th round to take care of my steals." And you can, of course you can. I won't ever say that taking Pujols first overall is a bad pick. It's a safe pick, a sure thing, and you'd be following the advice of all the experts.

But not my advice (notice how I just labeled myself a non-expert...oops!). I'm assuming you've all done ten or twelve fantasy baseball drafts, yes? When you're going through your draft, true or false, you much more often find yourself trying to find a reasonable steals guy to draft than a reasonable power guy to draft?

Of course it's steals. The thing about steals guys is that, when it comes to baseball, they're actually not all that valuable. Sure, speed is nice, and if you can be a very effective basestealer, you can put yourself into a position to score a lot of runs. But a bopper will always be more valuable, have a more solidified lineup spot, and thus, be a safer pick in the middle rounds. Think about guys like Dave Roberts and Eric Young, speed guys who disappeared because their speed wasn't enough to keep them playing every day.

The speed of Hanley acts as a counter-weight to Pujols' power numbers. Now, Pujols still has a 17 point edge in batting average. What position does he play again? First base? And Hanley plays...shortstop, that's right. But is position eligibility something you even want to take into account at the top of the draft?

Umm...yes? Why is Robinson Cano's average draft position 9.9? Because it's so impossible to find a .315 hitter who gets 25 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 runs? Kevin Youkilis is going 19 picks later. Vlad Guerrero is going 107 picks later. The reason Cano is so enticing (beyond his talent) is that he's a second baseman.

To wrap it all up, what position would rather be in 22 picks: you've got a huge-hitting 1B and holes at all the tougher positions to fill, or you've got a do-everything SS, and can wait for the right 1B at the right time in the draft? As a bit of reference, here are a couple guys at each position, their numbers from last year, and their average draft position (ignoring guys whose ADP is less than 24, since theoretically they won't be available, and guys with multiple position eligibility):

1B

• Kevin Youkilis* (.307, 77 R, 19 HR, 62 RBI in 102 games) - ADP of 28.6
  
• Adam Dunn (.260, 85 R, 38 HR, 103 RBI) - ADP of 50.6
• Kendry Morales (.290, 29 R, 11 HR, 39 RBI in 51 games) - ADP of 59.6
• Justin Morneau (.345, 53 R, 18 HR, 56 RBI in 81 games) - ADP of 60.3
• Billy Butler (.318, 77 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI) - ADP of 66.5
  
• Paul Konerko (.312, 89 R, 39 HR, 111 RBI) - ADP of 93.4
  

SS

• Jose Reyes (.282, 83 R, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 30 SB in 133 games) - ADP of 27.2
• Jimmy Rollins (.243, 48 R, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 17 SB in 88 games) - ADP of 44.6
• Derek Jeter (.270, 111 R, 10 HR, 67 RBI, 18 SB) - ADP of 52.5
• Alexei Ramirez (.282, 83 R, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB) - ADP of 70.2
• Elvis Andrus (.265, 88 R, 0 HR, 35 RB, 32 SB) - ADP of 99.3
• Stephen Drew (.278, 83 R, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 10 SB) - ADP of 100.4
  

*Youkilis is slated to start at 3B for the Red Sox, so I'd reckon part of his value comes from that additional pending position eligibility.

The ultimate scenario would be if Jose Reyes were to fall to your second round pick, but there's just no way you could count on that. And if you miss out on Reyes, you're sifting through the bargain bin at shortstop. Meanwhile, you should be able to get Morales or Morneau with your 5th round pick (#49), or Konerko all the way down in the 7th (#73). Or, if you wanted to just ignore 1B for a while, both Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche had at least 19 HR, 75 R, and 80 RBI, and they're both going after pick #200, putting their draft spot somewhere in the middle of the 16th round.

You know what shortstop falls in that area? Yunel Escobar (.256, 60 R, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 6 SB in 135 games).

Take Hanley. Unless you're in the same league as me, and I've got the #2 pick. In that scenario, Albert Pujols is a no-brainer. :)

Fantasy Baseball Previews

So historically, I've always done some fantasy baseball preview articles. Baseball is my favorite fantasy sport, and I love talking about it. But, I've always sort of tempered myself in my posts, for two main reasons:

1. I'm in an ultra-competitive league, and I don't want to give away any of my personal interests.
2. I could write a hundred articles on fantasy baseball, and it's tough to pick a few topics to actually write about.

I've got some ideas of articles I'll almost certainly write, but I wanted to extend an offer to all of you: tell me what you want to hear. If you've got any topics you think I should talk about, or if you want to take your own stance and have me respond to it, by all means, drop me a line and let me know. You can reach me at joe.joe.sports@gmail.com. I'm completely and utterly available.

That goes for you too, ladies. Holla!

How To Fix Your Fantasy Football League

And trust me, it's broken.

I've played in several fantasy football leagues each year for the past decade or so, and over time, you learn some things. You learn that Priest Holmes is going to burn someone. You learn to trust the elite quarterbacks to stay elite. But more importantly, you learn what makes a league fun, and what makes it frustrating. Right now, I'd like to share with you a few ways that I think your league can be more of the former, and less of the latter.

I figure the first of July should be plenty early to get your league on board with the changes.

Use Fractional Points

I get not using fractions back when fantasy sports were conducted with pencils and paper, but this is 2010. This is the year that every pre-teen science fiction writer used as his setting when I was growing up in the 1980s. Technology allows us to calculate fractions pretty easily, so there's no reason not to use them.

Certainly the advantages of using partial points are obvious. Say you give 1 point for every 25 passing yards. Does the difference between 173 yards and 178 yards really constitute an entire point? Is it unreasonable to think that 222 yards is actually more valuable than 203? The reality is that we have the mechanisms in place to allow yards to be assigned a specific, decimal value. Using those mechanisms will allow us to be maybe just a little more certain that the most deserving team will win on any given Sunday, and that's always an admirable move.

You also almost certainly eliminate ties, which nobody wants. As the old saying goes, ties are like kissing your sister, which unless your sister is Rachel McAdams is pretty gross. I guess it's gross either way, but man, she's gorgeous.

Shorten Your Benches

Losing a player to injury can be a bummer. Losing a player to injury and finding nobody on the waiver wire who even comes close to being startable is brutal. When this happens, chances are it's because your league has too many bench spots on each team. It seems the convention is fifteen roster spots, split up into nine starters (1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) and six bench spots. Most teams won't have a bench tight end, kicker, or defense, so you have six bench spots for six starting spots.

Too many. You want to force people into tough decisions, and you want to prevent players from being held just to be held. I'm in favor of having one bench spot for each non-special team position (QB, WR, RB, TE), plus one additional spot for every four total non-special team roster spot. In the case of a standard league, you have seven of those roster spots, so you get one additional bench spot, for a total of five. That keeps the waiver wire populated with the occasional interesting play: a borderline tight end, a slot receiver on a pass-heavy team, a goal-line running back.

Speaking of improving the depth of your waiver wire options...

Use Return Yardage at the Same Rate as Passing Yardage

Default Yahoo leagues don't implement return yardage at all, which borders on criminal. But even when leagues do use return yardage, it's often at an irrelevant pace, something like 40 or 50 yards per point, when rushing/receiving is 10 yards per point, and passing is 25. That means that, in order to match a 100-yard rushing/receiving day, a return man would have to accumulate 400 or 500 return yards.

As a reference, the all-time record for most kickoff return yards in a game is 304, and for punt return yards it's 207. The most prolific return man in 2008 (among startable players in standard leagues; that is, non-defensive players) was Darren Sproles with 1,625 total return yards. Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson had more rushing yards than that, and thirty quarterbacks had more passing yards than that. Certainly we can all agree that big return numbers have a positive impact on a real-life football team. Since fantasy football is supposed to reward players who do positive things for their real-life football teams, it's only fitting that return yards become part of the equation.

Most importantly, giving real value to return yards turns otherwise unstartable players into reasonable quick fix options. Joshua Cribbs is an elite return guy, but in a normal league, he wallows on the waiver wire. Adjust the return yards impact, though, and he becomes a decent option if you're in a bind. And that's really all we're looking to create here, is a little extra depth on the waiver wire for tough situations.

Consider Eliminating Kickers

Now, about a year ago, I was adamant that kickers should be eliminated from my main football league. I didn't (and still don't) like the complete luck that's involved in kickers acquiring points. They're completely reliant on particular offensive sequences to create the opportunities for them to kick field goals, and those sequences are extremely difficult if not impossible to predict. With most other facets of fantasy football already being somewhat unpredictable, why add in what essentially amounts to a roll of the dice for a few extra points?

I've backed off of that stance somewhat, however, as a result of the simple logic of one of my fellow league members. There are kickers in real football, so there should be kickers in fantasy football. It's a simple enough reasoning, but it does make sense. So, while I still think that kickers are unnecessary for a fantasy football league, and I think that removing them will result in the "better" fantasy players doing better in the win-loss columns, I understand keeping kickers. My recommendation here is just to make sure that you're not just keeping kickers because of convention, and that you actually find value in having kickers on your teams.

And Whatever Else...

Listen, I don't know your league. You know what your owners find interesting, and what they don't care about. I personally like assigning .25 to .50 points per reception, and giving 2 points for 100 yard receiving games versus 1 point for 100 yard rushing games, to increase the value of wide receivers versus running backs. But that's not for everyone. My most sincere recommendation is to listen to your league. You're going to find things that bother everyone in your league, and those are the most important things to change.

And the fractional points thing. That's just a no-brainer.

Twi-Night Doubleheader - Week 5 (belated)

Apologies to everyone who was expecting this post yesterday. Most of our writing staff was in Atlantic City for the weekend, and we had a hard time getting back on track. And yes, this means that it'll take into account the last seven days from today, rather than yesterday. You'll have to stomach that.

Fantasy Players of the Week

AL Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Rangers (.381, 4 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB) - Vlad is looking more and more like one of the best picks of our draft. He's forcing you to play him, even though he only qualifies at Utility.
NL Hitter: Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers (.379, 12 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB) - I hate giving my players of the week awards to the top Yahoo-rated guy from each league, but 12 runs and 8 RBI is just too much to ignore. Take note, though, of Carlos Ruiz, C, Phillies, who hit .632 with a pair of homers last week. Not bad from a catcher who's owned in only 15% of leagues.
AL Pitcher: Dallas Braden, SP, Athletics (1-0, 6 Ks, 0.00/0.00) - Jon Lester went 2-0 with 12 Ks and great averages, but perfect is perfect.
NL Pitcher: Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals (3-0, 6 Ks, 1.59/1.41)/Matt Capps, RP, Nationals (0-1, 3 SVs, 2 Ks, 1.93/0.43) - Clippard probably gets the nod, but I wanted to cite both players. The Nationals' bullpen has historically been a disaster, so the fact that it's performing at such a high level was, I thought, notable.

Reach for the Rolaids

• Clippard is available in 40% of leagues, and with 6 wins and over 1 K/IP, he's worth throwing in your lineup. The wins may not endure, but he's getting the chance to pitch in tight games, and he's pitching well.
• Bobby Jenks is getting a few days off as the closer, which means if Matt Thornton is available, you must pick him up. And if J.J. Putz is available, you should consider picking him up, too.
• Jose Contreras (yes, he's still in baseball) is in line to pick up a few save opportunities while Ryan Madson is on the DL and Brad Lidge is getting over elbow pain. With as horrible as Madson and Lidge have been in attempting to close games over the past year, don't you think you should do your part to put Contreras on more than 7% of rosters?
• Octavio Dotel has proven himself more and more hittable as his career has progressed (he's 36 now), and he's been just terrible this year. Don't be surprised if Evan Meek starts stealing save opportunities from Dotel. And if he does well, don't be surprised if Meek takes the job altogether.

One Joe To Another

Joe Mandi likes to complain that David Aardsma (one of my closers) has it in for Doug Fister (one of his starters). I figured he was just being emotional, but...

In 4 games in relief of Fister, Aardsma is 0-2 with one save, two blown saves. He has two strikeouts in four innings. And his ERA in those games is 11.25, with a WHIP of 3.00.

In his 8 other games, Aardsma is 0-0 with seven saves and zero blown saves. He has nine strikeouts in eight innings. His ERA is 0.00, and his WHIP is 0.25.

Maybe Joe Mandi's on to something, maybe not...but I'm strongly considering putting Aardsma on my bench for Fister's next start.

The Abbreviated Story of Chris Davis

I know you're all expecting analysis of the first round of last night's NFL draft, but I think it's a little rash to start analyzing teams' moves before they've actually made them. The Ravens acquired several picks last night in the trade that allowed the Broncos to select Tim Tebow, but we won't know how good the trade looks for the Ravens until they use those picks.

So, in the meantime, I figured I'd talk about a guy who I drafted fairly early in our keeper fantasy league, and whose story just got at least one chapter longer: Texas Rangers' first baseman Chris Davis.

Davis grew from relative obscurity to become one of the most prolific power hitters in the minors, and by the middle of 2008, the Rangers had to call him up. He produced immediately, smacking three homers in his first 19 MLB at-bats. But the warning signs were still there, as he struck out in six of those at-bats as well. Right away he established his propensity to be a "feast or famine" kind of player, and it's very difficult for those kinds of players to stay productive over an entire season.

He finished his rookie 2008 season with 17 HR and 55 RBI (along with 88 Ks) in 80 games, and his upside made him a keeper in our fantasy league. His owner, Vandelay Industries, saw the full crushing weight of those strikeouts firsthand, as Davis struck out 110 times in 247 at-bats through June, and while he had 15 home runs, he was hitting just .202, and his inability to make consistent contact held him to just 31 RBIs through the same time frame.

Davis was demoted in the first week of July, and many fantasy owners were happy to finally be rid of the question of what to do with him. But Davis worked on his approach, and earned another call-up in late August. He still suffered from a high strikeout rate, but he found his way to a lot more singles, and hit .308 to raise his average from .202 to .238 by the end of the season. He hit only 6 homers after his call-up, but a compromise between his two major league stints would theoretically offer a .275 hitter with 25-35 homer potential. It was that potential that led me to taking him in the 3rd round of our keeper league draft (after 8 keeper rounds).

Davis has been abysmal in 2010. Going into today's games, he was hitting .188 with zero home runs and 1 RBI. His single RBI accounted for the only RBI out of first base for the Rangers this season, the worst in the majors. He's still striking out a lot (17 times in 48 ABs, making his career rate a strikeout in 34.7% of his at-bats), and his complete inability to hit left-handers (.218 and a .409 slugging percentage in 220 career at-bats) makes me think he may be destined for a platoon.

Or not. Davis was demoted to triple-A Oklahoma City this morning by the Rangers, who called up super-prospect Justin Smoak to take over at first base for Davis. Smoak has played in just 134 minor league games since being drafted in 2008, but he's hit .293 with a more palatable 20.1% strikeout rate. Smoak hasn't displayed elite power potential in the minors thus far, and Davis will get an opportunity to play every day in Oklahoma City, so a return to the Rangers for Davis isn't impossible. But he's got to work on his approach again, and revisit the changes he made at the end of 2009 that turned him into a .300 hitter, albeit briefly.

I'm not dropping him just yet, as I had already grabbed Alberto Callaspo, who you may remember I told you to go pick up. So for as long as I can afford to sit on a minor leaguer with high-end power potential, I will. But it'll be a long time before I entrust him with a lineup spot again.

Wins Update - 4/22

As you may remember, I had employed a few strategies this year in trying to improve my position in the Wins category in our main fantasy baseball league. A few weeks in, let's take a look at how things are panning out.

I currently have five wins, tied for second-to-last place. The top two teams have 13 and 12 wins, respectively. The top team, Mercer AutoWreckers, acquired 4-win Roy Halladay from me prior to this year's keeper submissions. In retrospect, perhaps trading him and working to acquire Jon Lester (0-2, 8.44/1.88) was not the best idea.

But there are reasons to be hopeful. Phil Hughes is coming off of a fantastic start last night against the Athletics, and despite still being winless, Zack Greinke looked like his old self yesterday, allowing just three baserunners in a hard luck no-decision. I feel like I've got a pretty good pitching staff, and if Lester can get his act together, maybe the best top-to-bottom in our league. I'll give you another update on chasing wins as the league starts to take shape.

The Friday Before

First and foremost, yes, my colleague was correct when he called me out. Joe and Joe Sports isn't going anywhere; I will not be joining Yahoo's crack team of fantasy analysts...and Funston and Buser. I do have the utmost respect for Andy Behrens and his work, though, and I stand by my recommendation that you check out his stuff.

But today is more important than just the day after April Fool's day. It's the Friday before the beginning of the baseball (and fantasy baseball) season. I'm in three leagues this year (so far), one of which drafts on Saturday night (and I'm pushing for it to get changed to an auction draft; come on, Tony!).

The weekend before Opening Day is a great time. Every team has the ability to compete for a title, every team has the potential to win big or lose huge. All of your draft strategies and shrewd moves are still alive, could still pan out. In fact, April might be the most disappointing month of the fantasy baseball season, because that's when you start to realize that you overestimated this guy, or you were foolish to doubt that guy. Owners often over-emphasize happenings in April because that's when everyone is paying attention.

Is this where I tell you to stay the course? Have faith in your draft? Trust your instincts? No. Those instincts led me to ignore guys like Cliff Lee and Carlos Quentin. Make sure you're willing to adjust on the fly. Granted, you don't want to abandon all of your pre-season thought processes, but make sure that you don't allow yourself to be blinded by predisposition.

If you do, all those exciting "could be's" will turn into "might've been's."

Joe and Joe Sports Farewell

After an exciting last two years (and a fairly unexciting first two years), it is with a heavy heart that I report that Joe and Joe Sports will be closing down. I have a great opportunity to join Yahoo's fantasy sports team as a part-time assistant for Andy Behrens (yes, the Andy Behrens) on his Roto Arcade feature. Unfortunately, in order to join the Yahoo team, I have to sign a contract that stipulates that I won't compete for customers (web traffic in this instance), so I can no longer be a part of Joe and Joe Sports.

The agreement allows previously published content to remain published, so I will keep the site up for at least the duration of my contract with Google's web-hosting. I'm sure you'd all be heartbroken if you couldn't go back and see that I was dead-on about Matt Ryan being the right guy, right away for the Falcons in 2008. Heartbroken.

It's been a great run, everyone, and my work for Yahoo doesn't start until May 1st, so stick around while we clean up shop. Maybe you can take home a seat cover!

2010 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Draft Roundup

Just like any other league, we all think different things going into the draft, and we all have different responses to other teams' decisions. I decided to take a note from Yahoo's Brandon Funston and asked each team a couple of questions regarding their draft. I also asked each owner to declare who they thought to be the steal and reach of the draft.

I also asked Eddie Mattingly, brother and colleague, to come up with two questions for me, so I could defend my own rash decisions.

I offer the responses of each team that chose to participate below. This time, for kicks, I've sorted them alphabetically by owner's last name, then first name (since we have a few Mattinglys):

Ed Close, Columbus DamKnights

1) As I'm sure you noticed/planned, your team projects to finish well above everyone else in batting average, but looks underwhelming as far as power potential. Do you expect to be able to find power as the season progresses, or are you willing to just make that trade-off?

I'm certain that I tend to value batting average over other categories simply because I grew up that way, as a fan without regard to the fantasy value. However, I attempted to draft/keep younger players who hit well and would get an opportunity to bat in power or run producing positions in their respective lineups. I dislike drafting .250 hitting power hitters early in a draft. It is simply a prejudice of mine. I traded away Adam Dunn years ago because I hated the drag on BA.

As far as power, I've made a few trade overtures, even packaging Joe Mauer to one owner. Robinson Cano may bat 5th in a Yankees lineup and may be able to give me a lift. Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Snider, and Stephen Drew may deliver some needed power as well. Absent a big deal, I'll be patient and take a longer view (a few seasons) at this. I don't think you can pickup big boppers during the season. I added Jason Giambi one year and he gave me some pop at the end, but that was unexpected luck.

A note: I had Billy Butler on the top of my board but the Suspects drafted him earlier in round one.

2) Joe Nathan, one of your eight keepers, was injured early in our draft, and will be out for the season. Did his injury affect your draft plans? And if so, how?

I made a keeper-level investment in one of the few great reliable closers. That turned out to be a mistake. When Nathan went down, I did not feel that I could prudently fill that hole with the closers that were still available. The closers I saw available would provide perhaps 15-20 saves at the cost of elevated ERA/WHIP. I felt the DamKnights could do better by drafting to my other needs first - namely, young hitters and starting pitchers that I liked. After several rounds, I felt I could then invest in a few closers that had a chance of producing at the level of the closers that were available when Nathan went down.

3) Steal of the draft?

I liked the Pronks selection of Gutierrez with selection ten of round 8, and I liked the Mosquitoes selection of Matusz in round 5, selection eight.

4) Reach of the draft?

I think the Mosquitoes selection of Strasburg in round one stands out as a reach. But I hope he proves me wrong. I also was surprised to see The Usual Suspects select Sheets just after Matusz.


Nick Engle, Huber Heights Heroes

1) I'm sure by now everyone knows, you've got a unique strategy on the hitting side, where you punt batting average. How did that work out for you last year, and how do you think it'll work out in its second year?

Whoa whoa, did I not draft enough BA? All kidding aside, I think the strategy worked pretty well last year. I had never previously finished higher than 10th in this league and, in no small part because of punting BA, I finished in 4th place. I was even leading the pack for a while after
the all star break.

As far as this year is considered, I think my offensive stats will be great; it's my pitching that is a little worrisome. Due to the fact that I was pushing for the title last year, I had 1 pick in the first 5 rounds of the draft this year. That hamstrung me when drafting and kept me from surrounding my keepers with solid guys. I would have to have break out years from guys like Matt Latos and bounce back years from Erik Bedard and Johan Santana for any shot at competing for the 'ship.

2) You drafted several relievers, but they've all got question marks surrounding their capacity for picking up saves. Do you expect to have to make a move mid-season to acquire more saves, or do you have more faith in your guys than I do?

No, I do not have any more faith than you do in my relief pitching. Again, due to my lack of picks in the draft, I missed the first two runs for closers. I ended up with some pretty provincial guys (Kerry Wood, Mike Gonzalez) and a huge question mark in Brad Lidge. There is always an Andrew Bailey in the free agent pool to be found, but it is a shark tank out there trying to get him first. If I am competing for the title by the all star break, you'll see me dealing for a closer. The beauty of a keeper league is that not everyone is playing for this year.

3) Steal of the draft?

I'll look at teams other than my own. I think Alexei Ramirez in the 6th round was a great nab.

4) Reach of the draft?

It's hard to criticize picking prospects early because of being in a keeper league. I think Suspects took Juan Pierre a bit earlier (4th round) than anyone would have, but he was almost finished his draft by that time.


Chip Hart, Mercer AutoWreckers

1) Off-season trades brought in Andre Ethier and Roy Halladay, and you were able to snag Hunter Pence with your first round pick. Now, there are murmurs about the AutoWreckers being a championship contender in 2010. What weaknesses do you think you'll have to shore up before making a title run?

Well, lets be honest...our team has made serious strides to get from cellar-dweller to middle-of-the-pack. Our previous GM made some terrible "win now" moves that we've been paying for these last couple of years. We averaged 38.6 overall points during the first four years of Middle Earth and an average overall points of 58.5 in the last two years. That 20-point swing speaks volumes of our efforts to turn this team around.

I think it's obvious that we're leaning less on the "rebuilding" and more on the "win now" these days, but we still have a lot of work to do. Being a championship contender would be an appropriate and reasonable goal for us this year. Getting over the hump to land that #1 spot is going require special attention, some solid moves, and a little luck. It'll start with the hitting. We like the moves we made to put together a solid starting line-up. Our batting average is going to be great, but our home runs will be a point of concern. The draft helped us in steals, a category that we're continuously struggling to be respectable in. Getting back to the top in RBIs will obviously help too. The idea is that an increase in home runs will increase our run and RBI production. Even a shot at a championship hinges on our ability to hit the ball.

2) Between Rick Porcello and Mark Buehrle, you've got two guys with really terrible K/IP rates. Do you expect their strikeout rates to improve, or do you see their other numbers as valuable enough to accept lower strikeout numbers?

The pitching, overall, is currently the least of our concerns. We have a strong staff after some bold trades and made some solid picks to support that. With Roy Halladay pitching in the National League and King Felix being known for his high K/IP, not to mention the strikeouts we'll be getting from our relievers, our strikeout production should be extremely high. During the draft process, we believed that we had a good handle on strikeouts and it allowed us to draft these players for their other qualities, and the potential they bring to the table. Though, let's be honest, an increase in their strikeout rate would definitely help the AutoWreckers.

3) Steal of the draft?

Our steals in the draft would have to include Chipper Jones, who we acquired with the 6th pick of the 8th round. Despite his age, he still produces at a high level. He dropped down the draft for awhile. We were lucky to acquire a solid veteran. He'll also be a great clubhouse presence. Another steal is looking like Chris Perez, who we took with the 6th pick of the last round. Since Kerry Wood sustained an injury, Perez will be looking to fill in and steal a few saves early on for us.

Other than the AutoWreckers' reach of the draft, Nolan Reimold who was taken in the 10th round with the 8th pick by Stewie's SexyParties. He's a burgeoning young star on the Orioles roster. He came up late last year and put up some decent numbers. He was even in the Rookie of the Year talks for much of the end of last season. Despite recovering from an Achilles injury, he'll probably be starting for the Orioles in left field. The reason I think he was such a steal at that spot comes from the ESPN projections, which are just slightly lower than Hunter Pence's projections (whom I took with my 1st round, 6th pick). Now, these are just predictions, but I was pretty surprised when I made the comparison. Reimold has a lot to do, I think, to get those numbers (like get back to 100%), but I feel like he dropped pretty far.

4) Reach of the draft

Honestly, its hard to say which players were a reach for us. AutoWreckers all have a superb talent and each bring a special quality to the game. However, if we had to mention someone, we'd probably have to say Miguel Montero. He was selected in the 7th round with the 6th pick. Up to that point, only the four catchers that were kept were off the board. We think he'll have a great year, but in hindsight, we probably could have waited another round or more before selecting him or another catcher. Mark Buehrle, who was selected in the 11th round with the 6th pick, was a surprise reach for us as well. In fact, when we drafted him, we originally considered him a steal since he dropped as low as he did. After a respectable year, we were surprised to realize he was on such few radars. Regardless, we were excited to take him and know he'll give us a great year.

Other than the AutoWreckers' reach of the draft, Steven Strasburg and Jason Heyward. These two prospects have been talked about as much any elite veteran. Will they be good? All indications up to this point seem to say, "yes." Will either of them be start the season on a Major League roster? Not Strasburg. Should these kids have been drafted? Yes, of course, but in the first two rounds? A little to high for me, but then again, I'm not really a great fantasy baseball source.

All in all, the offseason and draft has treated the AutoWreckers well. We have lofty goals this year and definitely hope to meddle with the best in Middle Earth. Our long term goals from a few years ago have turned to short term goals today. A championship would be a sweet treat and is the ultimate goal, but we have to keep reality in check. We're still a handful of moves and possibly a year or two away.


Joe Mandi, Akron Pronks

1) You ended up with a lot of guys with 20 HR / 20 SB potential, a tactic that landed your commissioner in 8th place in the league's inaugural season. Was this by design, or just a matter of happenstance with a "best available" strategy?

Loading up on 20/20 guys was a combination of several things. Since I was keeping Brian Roberts, Jayson Werth and Shin-Soo Choo, I already had three combo guys locked up. With my three other offensive keepers (Victor Martinez, Kendry Morales and Kevin Youkilis), I only had three offensive starter positions to fill and then two to three additional bench spots. My initial strategy was to nab one combo outfielder, one power bat for my utility spot and a young, speedy shortstop. After several rounds of filling pitching needs, I was able to land the combo outfielder in Nate McLouth, but the speed shortstops (Andrus, Escobar and Cabrera) went several rounds before I was willing to pay for them. I was ecstatic about being able to fall back on Alexi Ramirez, but this meant that I was probably going to be short on steals and that instead of drafting a power bat I would have to land another power/speed guy. Luckily, one of my pre-drafts targets was still around in Franklin Gutierrez, a guy I think is poised for a 25/25 season.

At the end of the day, my numbers showed that I would still probably be a little short on both power and speed, but hopefully my offensive team is well rounded enough to compete in all categories. All that being said, I invested in a potential bounce back power guy (Ryan Ludwick) and am going to be closely watching the waiver wire for a speedster to make up any deficiencies I have.

2) We'd all love to have Tim Lincecum as the anchor to our staff. How does having the most productive starter in baseball change your approach to putting together your pitching staff?

Lincy (as I like to call him) makes putting a pitching staff together a lot easier from the perspective that his ratios are so low that you can afford more risk without worrying about blowing a category. Generally I'm looking for guys with good strikeout ratios and with Lincecum I know I can absorb, for example, Jonathan Sanchez's ERA, keep my team ERA low and still get all those sweet, sweet Ks. While I didn't get Sanchez, I did latch onto Javier Vazquez's 200K, 15 win potential with the knowledge that if his ERA is 4.0+, I'll still be OK. Having Lincecum also allowed me to trade Cliff Lee for Victor Martinez prior to the season. While I'll miss Cliff Lee's great numbers, the positional scarcity Martinez has makes my team better, while I hoping I found someone (I'm looking at you Gavin Floyd) that isn't too big of a downgrade from Lee.

3) Steal of the draft?

Overall Steal of the Draft? Ryan Madson, 13th Round...umm, embarrassingly I kinda thought he had been off the board for several rounds when this pick was made.

Pronks Steal of the Draft? Alexei Ramirez, 6th Round...less experienced shortstops were flying off the board in front of him, but Ramirez has 20 HR / 15 SB potential.

4) Reach of the draft?

Overall Reach of the Draft? Mariano Rivera, 1st Round...39 year old closer, coming off a near career year in a keeper league wasn't the right pick for a Those Guys team looking to rebuild.

Pronks Reach of the Draft? Gavin Floyd, 3rd Round...Floyd probably would have been available a round or two later, but I love the pedigree (4th overall pick in 2001) and the 2009 post-May numbers.


Edward Mattingly, The Usual Suspects

1) You mortgaged a lot of your draft and talent in 2009 in order to position yourself to have a stacked draft this season. With all those early draft picks, how do you feel about your team's makeup, and your ability to bring home the gold in 2010?

I like my team's make up. I think a majority of my team's starters come opening day will be around the age of 25. I feel confident that at the end of the year I will have eight very good keepers. In addition to that, I think my team has upside at every position, and if things develop quickly I will be in the thick of it come September. And if that isn't enough, this clip pretty much sums up my response... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuBnlNjZq24

2) The Suspects come into this season with only one 100-RBI player from 2009, and only three players who hit 20 or more home runs. Which of your players do you expect to turn up the voltage and provide the power numbers you'll need to compete?

I think Billy Butler and David Wright will have to be the cornerstones of my offense for me to have a chance to compete. Butler absolutely killed the ball with over 50 doubles last year, and I am looking at some of those to carry a little further over the fence this year. In addition, Wright’s HR production plummeted to 10 after averaging 30 over the previous 4 seasons. That will need to return in the 2010 season. That combined with my four OF (minus Pierre) getting good 25+ 100+ production (when they play) will help set up my team to be at least competitive in power statistics and give me a chance to compete for the title.

3) Steal of the draft?

Vladimir Guerrero. Hands down I think this was the steal of the draft. He is two years removed from a .329-30-125 season. Now, do I think he will do that this year...no. Do I think he’s a risk...yes. But a return to 25 HR with 100+ RBI and over .300 avg in Texas’ loaded offense is very possible. And that kind of upside and eventual production out of the 177 pick in the draft is the definition of a steal.

4) Reach of the draft?

Jason Heyward. I think people might agree with me when I say Heyward was probably the reach of the draft. I think he was probably a round at least from being on people’s radar when I selected him at the end of the second round. When I made the selection, I thought there was a 50/50 chance he would begin with Atlanta to start the season (UPDATE: Heyward was named the starting right fielder). With his ability to take walks and work the count, I thought he would reach his ceiling much faster than most hitting prospects. Also, there is just a gut feeling I get about certain guys. It’s not always right (Evan Longoria, Francisco Liriano, Matt Wieters, Delmon Young), but I honestly might like Heyward more than any of those guys. It might blow up in my face, but with so many high picks, I figured why not reach for a guy I really want?


Joseph Mattingly, Riders of Rohan

1) Last year, you traded your first two picks to make a run at the title, leaving your draft weaker than most other contenders. However, with eleven 3rd basemen kept, you still used one of your first two picks on a 1st/3rd basemen (Chris Davis) ranked outside the top 25 at both positions. If given the opportunity, would you make that pick again or would you try to address another possible weakness on your team?

First off, Davis was well inside the top 25 on pretty much every expert list I saw at both 1B and 3B. Yahoo's O-Rank seemed to be the only list that suggested he deserved to be ignored for a few rounds. Yahoo's composite expert rankings put Chris Davis as both the #1 first baseman and #1 third baseman on the board when I took him. While I might have been able to wait another round or two, the depth at 3B is virtually nonexistent, and I didn't want to be left choosing between Adrian Beltre and Martin Prado for my starter.

I like Davis' upside, and his turnaround in the second half of 2009 gave me all the encouragement I needed to think he'd be able to get back on track. He cut his strikeouts down and jacked up his batting average. I don't regret reaching a little bit for Davis at all.

2) The only trade made during the draft was your trade involving Jimmy Rollins for Jon Lester. What factors weighed in on making this deal? Without Rollins 30-40 steals do you feel like steals may be an area of concern?

Sometime in October, probably during the playoffs, I took a long look at Jon Lester's numbers, and fell in love. While Josh Beckett (deservedly) gets a lot of attention, Lester was quietly dominant in 2009, and has been getting better year by year. I know Rollins was the victim of bad luck last year, and I actually expect him to bounce back in a big way. But with my annual dearth of wins, I saw Lester as a guy who could hopefully get me off on track. The fact that I was able to move up in the draft sealed the deal for me, as I was beginning to see that depth was getting thinner.

Regarding steals, I'm hoping that between Alcides Escobar (Rollins' replacement on my team at shortstop) and either Alex Rios or Alfonso Soriano (whoever ends up spending the most time in my lineup), I'll make up whatever deficiencies I created by moving Rollins.

3) Steal of the draft?

I'm still stunned that Dan Uggla lasted 'til the 6th round. He's a 90-30-90 machine at second base. I also think the 13th round pick of Stephen Drew by the DamKnights could be one of those picks we look back on and say, "Really? He got him then?" My pick of Rios felt like a steal as well. If I'm picking one steal, though, it's Uggla.

4) Reach of the draft?

I generally accept that other people have a plan, so their picks can seem like reaches when in actuality they're just part of a strategy. Of course, my pick of Carlos Marmol is pretty much indefensible. It may go down as one of the dumbest in league history; he's had a rocky spring and has a history of control issues. I didn't exactly get great value on David Aardsma, either.

If I had to call out another owner, I guess I'd say Rich Harden went too early. He's injury-prone, and last year he wasn't even his usual dominant self. Package all that up with a move to Texas, and that seems like a lot of obstacles to overcome.


Michael Mattingly, Cleveland Enforcers

1) After a championship 2008, your 2009 was ravaged by injuries and disappointment. How much of a bounce-back are you expecting out of guys like Cole Hamels, Josh Hamilton, and Carlos Quentin?

I expect Hamels to approach his numbers from 2008, probably closer to 3.50 than 3.00 though. Quentin should be recovered from his various injuries over the past year and a half. I expect about 30 home runs out of him to go with a .280 average. Hamilton is the wild card. I'm expecting 25-30 home runs with a .285 batting average and 110 RBI if he can stay on the field. But that is a big if.

2) After drafting Carlos Gonzalez (who won't start for your team yet) in the first round, you seemed to back into four legitimate closers. Had you known beforehand that you'd be able to get 101 saves from 2009 at such value, would you have still taken Gonzalez in the first round?

I remember not liking any of the pitchers that I thought would go in the next round, and historically the Enforcers do not take closers that early which left me with hitters. Butler would have been a great pick but went the selection before, and no other 1B or C seemed to be worth the slot. I went into the draft not being sold on the heath of Quentin, Hamilton, or Reyes so an extra hitter seemed like a good idea. The team has been built around flexibility allow Gonzalez to be the replacement of Zobrist, Rodriguez, Reyes, Hamilton, Upton, Quentin, and Beckham. And chances are, a couple will miss time (Reyes will already be out at the beginning of the season).

3) Steal of the draft?

Vladimir Guerrero in the 11th round by Those Guys. He was a keeper after the 2008 season and hit .300 with 11 home runs after the break last year. I hear he is projected to hit between Hamilton and Kinsler in Texas. Seems like a good situation. Side note: Does anybody in MLB have a more injury-prone middle of their lineup?

4) Reach of the draft?

Asdrubal Cabrera in the second round to the DamKnights. I get the sense that most people are higher on Cabrera than I am but this seemed early. Especially when Alexei Ramirez went four rounds later.


Patrick Mattingly, Feisty Mosquitoes

1) You went young right away, grabbing Stephen Strasburg in the first round, and picking up Brian Matusz and Wade Davis in the 5th and 6th, respectively. Is it fair to say you're confident in your ability to pick up replacement starters if the youngsters falter, or start in the minors (as Strasburg will)?

This begins with drafting 12th (not exactly 'right away'). Having won the previous year, the chance to repeat is difficult. I had kept 7 hitters, so it had to be a pitcher. I took Strasburg because I believe young hard throwing pitchers have the upper hand when they hit the big leagues initially. They usually falter after there is enough tape, and then have to work there way back up to good pitching stats. I was projecting a mid-season arrival with a good year and a cathedral ceiling, with the possibility that maybe, just maybe, he's the one that the rest of the league never catches up with.

The rest was just hunt & peck, click and take. I almost took an SP with my back to back picks in the 2nd/3rd round, but made the decision to take proven closers and be done with that so I was free to go to starters. But when I got back to drafting, all the ones I was eyeballing were gone. After I took Burnett, I felt 'enough of that...so I started to draft potential, hoping one or two pan out. If not, well, off to the waiver wire (isn't Pettitte still available?). I have had success with replacement starters, but of course, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future success.

2) Similarly, you drafted four middle relievers late in the draft, rather than acquiring any more proven starters. Are you prospecting for saves, or expecting their other numbers to help mitigate any weaknesses you might find in replacement starters?

Well, gee why don't you just give away my secrets...yes, yes, yes.

3) Steal of the draft?

Strasburg

4) Reach of the draft?

Heyward


Mike Plundo, Stewies SexyParties

1) You've got three of the top ten talents in fantasy baseball (Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, and Ryan Braun). How does having those elite players change your draft strategy with regards to younger players?

I tried to draft the best players to help my team make a run at the league title this year. I did not really focus on trying to get young guys that may develop into future keepers. The other thing that I was able to do was get Andrew McCutchen before the draft started, who I figured will fill the role as a young guy who could develop into a great player and be kept for a number of years. That said, if he wasn't ready to play this year, I wouldn't have grabbed him. My draft strategy was definitely to try to compete this year and not 3 years from now.

2) Your lineup looks more balanced than it has in years. How possible do you think it is that you sweep and pick up the maximum 60 points from the hitting categories?

I'd say 0.5% possible, there are a lot of teams with great hitters this year. I need to get as many hitting points as I can though, because in my opinion, my pitching is not as good as I'd hoped this year. And now I may have 3 pitchers start the year on the DL, so it might be a rough year from a pitching stand-point.

3) Steal of the draft?

Since it looks like Jason Heyward is going to be starting out of the box for Atlanta, he may end of being the steal of the draft, especially in a keeper league. I think perhaps my steal of the draft was getting Tim Hudson with the 216th pick (final pick in the 10th round) in the draft. If he's 1/2 as good as they're saying he's looked this spring, he'll be a steal for me since he was basically "no risk" at that point in the draft.

4) Reach of the draft?

You hate to pick a "reach," especially in a keeper league since people could be thinking 2 years down the road with picks and keepers, but I guess that I would say that keeping Brandon Webb as a 7th keeper was probably a reach. ESPN has him ranked #180 overall for this season, I think there were better pitchers available that could have been acquired and kept, for instance I happen to know that Nolasco could have been had very cheap in the days leading up to the draft and I think he's a much better option going into the season.


Mark Sabina, Those Guys

1) In off-season trades, you moved your 3rd and 4th round picks to improve your keepers, acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Josh Johnson. After seeing how your team panned out, how happy are you with those moves?

At the end of last season, I knew I needed pitching badly. I didn't think the draft (especially in the 3rd round) was going to yield any more talented pitchers than I could have traded my picks for. Having the 1st pick definitely helped to get better pitchers than if I were to have had a middle or late round pick, so I figured I would use it to my advantage. Having the 3 J's (Josh, Josh, John Lackey) in my keeper list allowed me to focus on improving other positions before filling out the rest of my starters. The trade that gave me Gonzo was just a good deal all around for me. Like Joe expressed in his blog post, I agree that Gonzo was my top keeper. And for me to only give up my 4th and 8th to get him, he was a steal in my mind.

2) You used the first overall pick to select Mariano Rivera, but then spent most of the rest of the draft targeting younger players, including Pedro Alvarez and Mike Stanton who may not break spring training with their teams. What was the strategy behind those combination of moves?

Since I had Papelbon on my roster, I knew I only needed 1 more ace reliever and I would be somewhat good on that front, and who better to fill that ace reliever role than Rivera? Taking him with my first pick allowed me to focus on filling the rest of my roster out. Although age-wise Rivera should be way past his prime, you wouldn't be able to tell that from looking at his numbers. Seeing how everyone seemed to be focusing on pitching early in the draft, even if I had my 2nd round pick, I don't think he would have fallen to me. For my roster, and for my draft plan, Rivera was the best pick out there for me.

3) Steal of the draft?

Lilly, definitely. Sure his injury might have turned people off to him, but I don't think he should have fallen to the 10th. Once my b2b2b picks came around and he was still on the board, I knew he would be one of the three. I believe I got him in the 6th last year, and his numbers at the end of the season showed he should have been a 4th or even mid-late 3rd rounder. Sure he's getting older, but his numbers these past few seasons show he's not losing much on his pitches.

4) Reach of the draft?

Mike Stanton was my reach of the draft solely on the reason that he may not even move up to the majors until the end of the season. Pair him with Alvarez and that's 2 roster spots that are useless until the at least the middle of the season. If players start to go down (thank god I don't have Chipper this season) it will make things a little more difficult. But of course those 2 picks weren't for this season. Hopefully Stanton's minor league numbers and Alvarez's minor (or major?) league numbers at the end of the season will prove why they should be kept.