2010 NFL Wrap Up - Week 1

This will basically be the same thing that I did much of last year as part of my Redskins Report Card. I'm splitting it off from that because...well, I could tell you it's so that my content is properly organized, but it's really just so that I have posts more frequently.

Around the League

• Minnesota did not look like the same team that took New Orleans to the brink in the NFC Championship game last season. Do we attribute it to the absence of Sidney Rice, or to the fact that Brett Favre had a practice and a half before the game?
• I can't believe the referees stole that touchdown from Calvin Johnson and the Lions. This whole "process of the catch" concept is asinine.
• The Dolphins won 15-10 over the Bills. A win is a win, but it's the Bills...
• Green Bay's Mason Crosby kicked the longest field goal in franchise history in a 27-20 victory, but the story here is that Kevin Kolb, the anointed heir to Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia, was ineffective, and is now hurt and unlikely to play in week 2. So, Michael Vick is a starting QB in the NFL again.
• Eight catches, 64 yards, two TDs. Yeah, Wes Welker is back.
• Seattle laid the lumber to San Francisco. I get the impression that Mike Singletary would be a good coordinator, or a nice interim option, but might not have the knack for being a head coach for the long haul. Just an impression; the 49ers will probably win nine straight now.
• Peyton Manning was 40/57 for 433 yards and three TDs, and he wasn't the story on offense on Sunday's loss to the Texans. Arian Foster ran for 231 yards and three scores. See ya, Steve Slaton.
• Baltimore's offense was erratic, but generated twenty first downs. On the other side of the football, they allowed just six first downs in a tight win over the Jets. If they can learn to hold onto the football, there's no reason the Ravens can't go to the Super Bowl.
• For me, the big question after week one is this: are the Chiefs legit, or are the Chargers in trouble? One thing is certain, though. If you own Jamaal Charles in your fantasy league, no need to worry about that handcuff.
  

How To Fix Your Fantasy Football League

And trust me, it's broken.

I've played in several fantasy football leagues each year for the past decade or so, and over time, you learn some things. You learn that Priest Holmes is going to burn someone. You learn to trust the elite quarterbacks to stay elite. But more importantly, you learn what makes a league fun, and what makes it frustrating. Right now, I'd like to share with you a few ways that I think your league can be more of the former, and less of the latter.

I figure the first of July should be plenty early to get your league on board with the changes.

Use Fractional Points

I get not using fractions back when fantasy sports were conducted with pencils and paper, but this is 2010. This is the year that every pre-teen science fiction writer used as his setting when I was growing up in the 1980s. Technology allows us to calculate fractions pretty easily, so there's no reason not to use them.

Certainly the advantages of using partial points are obvious. Say you give 1 point for every 25 passing yards. Does the difference between 173 yards and 178 yards really constitute an entire point? Is it unreasonable to think that 222 yards is actually more valuable than 203? The reality is that we have the mechanisms in place to allow yards to be assigned a specific, decimal value. Using those mechanisms will allow us to be maybe just a little more certain that the most deserving team will win on any given Sunday, and that's always an admirable move.

You also almost certainly eliminate ties, which nobody wants. As the old saying goes, ties are like kissing your sister, which unless your sister is Rachel McAdams is pretty gross. I guess it's gross either way, but man, she's gorgeous.

Shorten Your Benches

Losing a player to injury can be a bummer. Losing a player to injury and finding nobody on the waiver wire who even comes close to being startable is brutal. When this happens, chances are it's because your league has too many bench spots on each team. It seems the convention is fifteen roster spots, split up into nine starters (1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) and six bench spots. Most teams won't have a bench tight end, kicker, or defense, so you have six bench spots for six starting spots.

Too many. You want to force people into tough decisions, and you want to prevent players from being held just to be held. I'm in favor of having one bench spot for each non-special team position (QB, WR, RB, TE), plus one additional spot for every four total non-special team roster spot. In the case of a standard league, you have seven of those roster spots, so you get one additional bench spot, for a total of five. That keeps the waiver wire populated with the occasional interesting play: a borderline tight end, a slot receiver on a pass-heavy team, a goal-line running back.

Speaking of improving the depth of your waiver wire options...

Use Return Yardage at the Same Rate as Passing Yardage

Default Yahoo leagues don't implement return yardage at all, which borders on criminal. But even when leagues do use return yardage, it's often at an irrelevant pace, something like 40 or 50 yards per point, when rushing/receiving is 10 yards per point, and passing is 25. That means that, in order to match a 100-yard rushing/receiving day, a return man would have to accumulate 400 or 500 return yards.

As a reference, the all-time record for most kickoff return yards in a game is 304, and for punt return yards it's 207. The most prolific return man in 2008 (among startable players in standard leagues; that is, non-defensive players) was Darren Sproles with 1,625 total return yards. Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson had more rushing yards than that, and thirty quarterbacks had more passing yards than that. Certainly we can all agree that big return numbers have a positive impact on a real-life football team. Since fantasy football is supposed to reward players who do positive things for their real-life football teams, it's only fitting that return yards become part of the equation.

Most importantly, giving real value to return yards turns otherwise unstartable players into reasonable quick fix options. Joshua Cribbs is an elite return guy, but in a normal league, he wallows on the waiver wire. Adjust the return yards impact, though, and he becomes a decent option if you're in a bind. And that's really all we're looking to create here, is a little extra depth on the waiver wire for tough situations.

Consider Eliminating Kickers

Now, about a year ago, I was adamant that kickers should be eliminated from my main football league. I didn't (and still don't) like the complete luck that's involved in kickers acquiring points. They're completely reliant on particular offensive sequences to create the opportunities for them to kick field goals, and those sequences are extremely difficult if not impossible to predict. With most other facets of fantasy football already being somewhat unpredictable, why add in what essentially amounts to a roll of the dice for a few extra points?

I've backed off of that stance somewhat, however, as a result of the simple logic of one of my fellow league members. There are kickers in real football, so there should be kickers in fantasy football. It's a simple enough reasoning, but it does make sense. So, while I still think that kickers are unnecessary for a fantasy football league, and I think that removing them will result in the "better" fantasy players doing better in the win-loss columns, I understand keeping kickers. My recommendation here is just to make sure that you're not just keeping kickers because of convention, and that you actually find value in having kickers on your teams.

And Whatever Else...

Listen, I don't know your league. You know what your owners find interesting, and what they don't care about. I personally like assigning .25 to .50 points per reception, and giving 2 points for 100 yard receiving games versus 1 point for 100 yard rushing games, to increase the value of wide receivers versus running backs. But that's not for everyone. My most sincere recommendation is to listen to your league. You're going to find things that bother everyone in your league, and those are the most important things to change.

And the fractional points thing. That's just a no-brainer.

Joe and Joe Sports Farewell

After an exciting last two years (and a fairly unexciting first two years), it is with a heavy heart that I report that Joe and Joe Sports will be closing down. I have a great opportunity to join Yahoo's fantasy sports team as a part-time assistant for Andy Behrens (yes, the Andy Behrens) on his Roto Arcade feature. Unfortunately, in order to join the Yahoo team, I have to sign a contract that stipulates that I won't compete for customers (web traffic in this instance), so I can no longer be a part of Joe and Joe Sports.

The agreement allows previously published content to remain published, so I will keep the site up for at least the duration of my contract with Google's web-hosting. I'm sure you'd all be heartbroken if you couldn't go back and see that I was dead-on about Matt Ryan being the right guy, right away for the Falcons in 2008. Heartbroken.

It's been a great run, everyone, and my work for Yahoo doesn't start until May 1st, so stick around while we clean up shop. Maybe you can take home a seat cover!

2009 Redskins Report Card: Week 16 vs. Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys 17, Redskins 0

It's too bad that the Redskins have to play a game in week 17, because this game seemed like a perfect bow to put on Jim Zorn's tenure in Washington. A horrific, grotesque bow.

Offense: D
Defense: C-
Special Teams: C+
Overall: D+

Getting shut out by the Cowboys is a tough pill to swallow, but particularly bitter when it's a home game. The Redskins' farthest drive in the game was their last, a 51-yard march that ended when Washington once again got into a bad down-and-distance situation, and couldn't convert. When you can't make big plays down the field, you have to get yourself into good situations through runs and short passes. When you can't extend drives, you have to go for home runs. When you can't do either, you're the Redskins.

I've often wondered how a team would fare if they had a great punter but little else. Turns out, they would get shut out by the Cowboys. Hunter Smith is a real asset on this team, with five of his eight punts putting Dallas inside their own 20 yard line. But field position only gets you so far, and Washington couldn't do anything with theirs.

About the only positive you can take away from this game is that it looks like the Cowboys have as little faith in Shawn Suisham as the Redskins did. Three times they elected to go for it rather than give Suisham a 47-52 yard field goal attempt. So at least one other team doesn't think much of the same kicker.

Next week pits the Redskins against the San Diego Chargers, who have absolutely nothing to play for, and who probably will be sitting half of their starters. I think Stan Humphries is slated to start at QB.

Around the League

• San Diego is playing as well as anybody in the NFL right now. If you've got money burning a hole in your pocket and you want to bet on someone to win the AFC, I think the smart money is on the Chargers.
• Hmm, the Patriots might be back. Uh oh.
• Has any team ever swung as hard as the Giants from last week's domination of the Redskins to this week's embarrassment against the Panthers?
• What the hell happened to the Saints?
• In a game with intense Mattingly fantasy football implications, the Ravens fell to the Steelers. A pair of running back fumbles were NOT appreciated.
• The Packers sure are peaking at the right time.
• I told you Cutler would be fine. Or if I didn't, I told other people, and they can attest to the fact that I said it.
  

2009 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet - TE

Other cheat sheets:
QB | WR | RB | TE

1. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers - The difference between Gates and Witten is minuscule, but I'm giving the edge to Gates. He's got a better history of scoring touchdowns, and I worry about how defenses may be able to clamp down on Witten with Terrell Owens out of the picture in Dallas.
2. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys - Witten has been Tony Romo's favorite target (and good buddy) pretty much since Romo started playing quarterback for the Cowboys. Roy Williams replaces Terrell Owens as the #1 receiver on the team, which could mean more double-teams for Witten. We'll find out soon if Witten actually deserves the accolades he's been getting in fantasy circles.
3. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons - Gonzalez moves to a much more impressive offensive team, and he was far and away the #1 fantasy tight end last year. He's got a little more wear on his tires than you'd like, but he's been the model of consistency. You can take him with confidence.
4. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts - Clark set career highs in receptions and yards last season, although his touchdown catches dropped from 11 to 6. That can be partly attributed to a weak running game, which should be stronger this season. I expect Clark to once again be a prime red zone target for Peyton Manning.
5. Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins - Lost in the weakness of the Redskins' wide receivers is the fact that Cooley has developed into one of the most consistently productive tight ends in football. He only notched one touchdown last season, but had at least six in every other season of his career. There's no reason to think he won't get back there.
6. Kellen Winslow Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Winslow seemed on the path to greatness after consecutive 80+ catch seasons, but he got hurt and faltered last year. He allegedly has an attitude problem, but come on, everybody in football has a little bit of an attitude problem. Winslow's at least got the talent to be #1 on this list.
7. Owen Daniels, Houston Texans - Oftentimes, the sexy TE pick in the preseason ends up disappointing (remember Boo Williams?). Daniels is an example of one who didn't disappoint. He's in a fairly high-powered offense, and while he hasn't been much of a red zone threat, he's a productive tight end, which means he's always just a play away.
8. Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears - There are about fifty rankings that changed when Jay Cutler got traded to Chicago, not the least of which was a bump for Greg Olsen. I'm not certain it's warranted, as Cutler should be able to do more with his wide receivers than Kyle Orton did. Still, talent is talent.
9. Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders - Miller was far and away the best receiver on the Raiders last year. The problem, of course, is that we're talking about the Raiders, so nobody was great, and there's no reason to think they'll be much better this year. But a repeat performance seems reasonable.
10. John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks - The addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh is expected to be almost as important to Seattle as Cutler's addition is to Chicago. Housh should open things up for other receivers, and Carlson figures to benefit as much as anyone.
11. Dustin Keller, New York Jets - Keller was a productive rookie last season, but any projected improvements based on experience are mitigated by the quarterback situation in New York. The loss of Laveranues Coles without any replacement doesn't help, either.
12. Bo Scaife, Tennessee Titans - Scaife has improved in three consecutive seasons, but still can't seem to plant himself in the end zone (his career high is 2 TDs). He'll split time with Alge Crumpler as well, but I can see a breakout happening for Scaife this season, specifically in the scoring department.
13. Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints - There was never a player who made more off of one play than Shockey did when he ran over that guy on the Texans. He hasn't matched his reception or yardage totals from his rookie season, and has never played all 16 games. But with the Saints' passing attack, he'll be good enough to take a flier on late.
14. Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos - Scheffler was by no means a powerhouse last year, but he was solid, and fairly consistent when he was healthy. Unfortunately, his health itself was inconsistent. Whenever he plays, though, he should be good for at least 50 yards.
15. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers - Lots of people, including myself, thought Heath Miller would flourish in Pittsburgh, with their reputation for hard yards and conservative passing. But the Steelers are much more of a downfield team than their reputation would suggest, and Miller has just been okay. He's a big body, well-suited for red zone offense, so he's a decent roll of the dice from week to week.
    

2009 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet - RB

Other cheat sheets:
QB | WR | RB | TE

1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings - I've closed the gap between #1 and #2, but I've still got Peterson at the top. The advantage of Peterson is that we've seen him be productive with the full-time starter job now, and he was still fantastic. Favre would've probably helped Peterson's production, but either way, he's my #1.
   
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars - Jones-Drew could be the best player in fantasy football when the year comes to a close. By the end of last year, he was already looking like a surefire top 5 pick this season, and that was with the assumption that he still wasn't going to get full-time carries. With Fred Taylor ring-hunting in New England, MJD looks like a good bet to explode.
   
3. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - What I like about Turner is what we all used to like about Rudi Johnson. He doesn't have bad games, he scores a lot, gets a lot of yards. Turner seems a lot faster than Johnson was, though, and he's on a team that seems headed in the right direction.
   
4. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers - I read somewhere that a 60/40 time share with Jonathan Stewart will hurt Williams' ability to produce this year. Last year, while Williams was destroying defenses, the ratio was 273/184, or 59.7/40.3. You'll have to excuse me if I don't think Stewart's presence will cause that much damage.
   
5. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers - Tomlinson is in the most precarious position he's seen in nearly a decade. His production has slipped a little in the past couple of years, and his backup (Darren Sproles) was slapped with a franchise tag. News flash: You don't pay a true backup running back $7 million. Sproles will cut into Tomlinson's playing time. How much will depend on Tomlinson.
   
6. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - The part of Forte's game that is most impressive is his ability to produce as a receiver. While swapping out Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler will likely result in more of a downfield passing attack, stretching the field should give Forte more room to run. I expect a marginal decline in receiving yards, but a pleasant uptick in his ground attack.
   
7. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams - Jackson has frustrated owners for several years now, with amazing production but inconsistent health. If he can stay on the field all season, both he and the Rams could see a revival. If not, he'll just be another running back who under-produced.
   
8. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants - Jacobs makes opposing defenses cringe when he comes barreling out of the backfield. He's as big as a defensive end, but he's got surprising speed as well. He'll pile up touchdowns and get solid yardage, and just generally make you happy you drafted him.
   
9. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers - Gore was a solid if unspectacular option at running back. But in 2007, he was all spectacle. Between the two seasons, he's shown he can be both reliable and explosive. I like that combination.
   
10. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles - He's never been the model of consistency, and he's getting older now. People say, "He didn't get that many carries early on." True, but he still walked around and lived his life, and he practiced as much as his oft-injured body would allow. He's got enough miles and enough unpredictability that he'll never end up on my team.
    
11. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys - Barber technically played in 15 games last year, but in the last five games he was too banged up to factor into the offense. He's a touchdown hawk, and a punishing runner. Barber is also a nice contributor in the passing game, giving him another way to grab you a few bonus points.
12. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans - Slaton was a late season surprise, posting six games of 100+ combined rushing/receiving yards in the second half. He figures to be the featured back from week one this year, which at least gives him the opportunity to excel. He also works well in the passing game, catching at least four passes in five different games.
13. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans - Johnson was explosive in a time share with LenDale White last season, reaching 160 total yards in three different games. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry, a number that figures to drop a bit this year as he gets more consistent carries. Even so, he'll likely be a great producer, and he's got top 5 upside.
14. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins - Portis started the season on fire, including five straight weeks of 120+ rushing yards. His second half was a different story, though, averaging 68 yards per game and scoring just two TDs. He's also invisible in the passing game. Portis is a reliable starter without any legitimate competition behind him, so draft him like he's Deuce McAllister of yore.
15. Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints - Speaking of Deuce, here's the guy replacing him. Thomas only got substantial carries in seven games last year, and he averaged over 5 yards a carry in those games. He also scored nine touchdowns in those games. While the Saints continue to be a pass-happy squad, Thomas is the featured back in the most potent offense in the NFL. I'm buying.
16. Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions - It's been years since a Lion has been a big time fantasy factor at running back, but Kevin Smith (not that Kevin Smith) looks like he's changing all that. Once he got consistent carries last season, he was productive. While Detroit is still a ways off from being an offense you want to invest in, Smith will fall backwards into a thousand yards, and could be quite a bit better.
17. Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers - The big time surprise from 2007 was less explosive but still solid in 2008. You wish he were a bigger part of such a potent passing attack, but consistent, solid rushing yards have their value as well. He's not an exciting pick, but he could be good value if he sniffs the end zone a little more ("sniffs" is the metaphor there, not "end zone").
18. Thomas Jones, New York Jets - Who has two thumbs and was in the top five in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns last season? This guy. You're right not to expect the same kind of production this year, with the Jets' passing game in a sad state, but you'd be wrong to avoid Jones altogether. It's obvious he can produce.
19. Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins - Brown wasn't particularly good in 2008, outside of a couple of games, but he was coming off of a knee injury that may have made him tentative. After getting through all 16 games last season, Brown should be more confident, leading to more productivity.
20. Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs are looking at a new QB, new coach, and their first season in over a decade without Tony Gonzalez. In a situation like that, you have to think that they'd like to be able to rely on the ground game. If Johnson can avoid the injury bug, this is a great opportunity for him to bounce back in a big way.
21. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts - Addai was one of the bigger disappointments last season, due both to injury and unspectacular play. Fantasy football owners have always liked what Addai can bring to the table, but the Colts drafted Donald Brown in the first round, so he'll clearly play. Addai could muscle Brown into a minimal role, but more likely is a time share that hurts both players' values.
22. Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints - Bush was fairly productive last season before getting hurt in week 7, specifically in the passing game. He had four 60+ receiving yard games and three receiving touchdowns. In the Saints' offense, Bush translates to a 30-40% share of the RB play plus a third wide receiver. The sum is a pretty productive RB2.
23. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers - I've heard a lot of talk about the Panthers' running backs and how one will take carries away from the other. But people forget that neither back really got going until they both did. There's little doubt in my mind that both will be productive this season. The only person likely to suffer is Muhsin Muhammad.
24. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills - Lynch is suspended for the first four games of this season for a hit-and-run he perpetrated last year and a gun charge in February. He isn't a stud, and doesn't appear to have that makeup in him. But adding Terrell Owens to an offense does tend to open up the running game, so Lynch could be lining up for the best 12 games of his career.
    
25. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders - You think I like this? I hate recommending any Raiders player at any point. But the reality is that McFadden is four healthy months from being the next big thing. If he can get consistent carries and stay off the shelf, I absolutely believe that he can become a legitimate starting running back.
26. Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers - There's no doubt that the Steelers will be looking to get Rashard Mendenhall involved in the offense, probably to a fairly large extent. But Parker's the man now, and he's shown what he can do with sufficient opportunity.
    
27. Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Ward was phenomenal working alongside (and occasionally in place of) Brandon Jacobs. While Tampa still likes Carnell Williams, they didn't bring Ward in to let him ride the pine. He'll get his shots, and should be solid.
28. LenDale White, Tennessee Titans - I am not at all crazy about White. He managed a couple of great games, but also laid several eggs (4 games with under 15 total yards). Still, he's got a big body that he's able to plant in the end zone with some consistency, so he's got value.
29. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos - Mike Shanahan is out of town, which means that this year is the best chance for a single productive running back out of Denver since Terrell Davis. Moreno probably has the best chance at being that guy, but he's no sure thing. The upside is there, though, which makes him worthwhile as an early backup RB.
30. Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers - Parker's days were numbered the moment the Steelers drafted Rashard Mendenhall in 2008. Fast Willie had a few good games, but even after Mendenhall went out for the season, Parker didn't seem to have the same pep in his step. He's a candidate to bounce back, but he's also a candidate to vanish altogether.
31. Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals - "Beanie" Wells had a nice career at Ohio State, and the Cardinals acquired him as their replacement for Edgerrin James. He'll split time with Tim Hightower, who may steal goal line carries. It's one of those situations that pretty much demand that you draft both guys, and I hate those situations.
32. Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns - Lewis notched his seventh career 1,000 yard season, but scored only four touchdowns. Part of that can be attributed to the Browns' anemic passing game, but there aren't many reasons to think it'll be any better this year. If you draft Lewis, you're sort of investing in Brady Quinn turning around the passing attack, as well.
33. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals - By the end of the season, Benson was looking more and more like a normal running back. He averaged 100 yards a game in those games in which he received 20 or more carries, which suggest he could be solid. There's no one of considerable quality behind him, so he'll be given the chance to succeed.
34. Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks - Jones is the starter in Seattle, but that's really all there is to be excited about with him. He averaged just 46 yards per game last year, and this year T.J. Duckett figures to again vulture goal-line carries. Houshmandzadeh's impact on this offense won't be that profound.
35. Darren Sproles, San Diego Chargers - As I said, no way the Chargers are paying a return guy $7 million this year. Sproles is going to get some legitimate playing time, and if something happens to LT, Sproles immediately becomes a top 20 running back, at least. A vital handcuff for Tomlinson owners.
36. Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens - I'm putting these guys together because you simply cannot draft them seperately. That means that these guys really only make sense if you've got a wrap-around pick in a snake draft. Otherwise, you're making a foolish move, as it's a true 40/40 chance on who starts (with Ray Rice accounting for the other 20 percent).
37. Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts - Brown was a first-round pick for the Colts, so you know they like him. There's a chance he ends up in a full timeshare with Addai, which means Brown isn't too bad as a bye week replacement. And of course, if Addai goes down, Brown is the inevitable beneficiary. Another important handcuff.
38. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers - Mendenhall just seems like a Steelers running back. Strong, hard-nosed, and after losing the year due to injury against Baltimore, he's got sufficient disdain for the Ravens. Parker should start the season as the #1, but I get the feeling that any slip-up and the Steelers will go with Mendenhall.
39. Tim Hightower, Arizona Cardinals - While he's not likely to get many yards, he's a threat for a touchdown every week. He also had 34 catches last year, and being a productive receiver will get you in the game when you're a Cardinal. Don't get too attached, though. Wells is the future in Arizona.
40. Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins - Williams has made Ronnie Brown owners crazy over the past couple of years, with retirements and returns. He's not young, and it's obvious that Brown is more talented, but Williams could steal just enough carries to be a nuisance. That's also the number of carries to make him worth stashing on your bench.

2009 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet - WR

Other cheat sheets:
QB | WR | RB | TE

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals - We all knew he was good, but last season he took everything to another level. He was particularly good down the stretch (in what would be the fantasy playoffs), when he had at least 100 yards or a touchdown in each of his last seven games. Of course, he did that in all but three games all season. Only a select few wideouts get you running back numbers; they are the elite, and Fitzgerald is their king.
2. Randy Moss, New England Patriots - Moss had a ho hum 2008 with 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns. With Tom Brady back from injury, Moss should be back up to his old tricks. I wouldn't look for another record-breaking season, but 15 TDs seems like a floor.
3. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans - Johnson was nearly as productive as Fitzgerald last year, except that Fitz found the end zone four more times. But Johnson is a reception machine, which means that he rarely has an off game. Moss and Johnson are close enough that you can pick between them, based on whether you want reliability or the potential for a 3 touchdown game.
   
4. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals - All of the hullabaloo around Fitzgerald overshadowed Boldin's production, which was outstanding. He had a better season than Randy Moss, and played in only 12 games. He may deserve an "injury-prone" label, as he's missed time in four of his six seasons in the NFL, but there's no question he's a stud WR. Just keep your fingers crossed he doesn't stub a toe.
   
5. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions - You could justify putting Calvin Johnson as high as Andre Johnson, based on talent. The only reason I've got Calvin down here is that he'll be receiving throws from Daunte Culpepper again, which doesn't inspire confidence. But Calvin's talent is transcendent, and he'll be solid regardless.
   
6. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons - White took zero time to get in sync with rookie QB Matt Ryan, and turned in his best season yet. I'm confident that the addition of Tony Gonzalez will only help White, and the Falcons (the Falcons?) could have one of the best offenses in the NFL.
   
7. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers - Jennings and Aaron Rodgers were a match made in heaven from the start, and fantasy owners have felt the love. Who knew that Green Bay, WI would be home to one of football's great passing attacks? Jennings is something of a home run threat, so you may have to deal with some low production weeks, but the upside is worth the occasional 30-yard game.
   
8. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers - Smith is one of the hardest guys to judge from year to year. Coming off of two solid but unspectacular seasons, Smith recaptured his gamebreaker ability, finishing second in the NFC in receiving yards in just 14 games. But he's constantly missing time, and he's got only one 100-catch season in his career. He's a very good receiver; just make sure you don't draft him as if he were a great receiver.
   
9. Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos - Who knows where Marshall will be when the season opens up. Most likely he'll still be in Denver, but a change of scenery might be more comforting to fantasy owners. I think he'll be equally productive regardless,and I think that production will be delightful.
10. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts - This will be Wayne's first season ever without Marvin Harrison on the opposite side. Worth mentioning is that last year, which was Harrison's least productive in a decade, was also a less productive season for Wayne. The hope is that with Joseph Addai back from injury and Anthony Gonzalez getting comfortable as a starter, Wayne will get back to his 2007 ways, but don't overpay.
11. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints - The one thing you can say about Colston is that he's going to get chances. The Saints throw the ball as much as any team, and Drew Brees is a fantastic quarterback to have throwing to your receiver. Colston is the best receiver in New Orleans, and while injuries limited his production, they also showed that there are other threats on the team. Lance Moore's development should keep defenses honest, and allow Colston to return to being one of the better wideouts in the league.
    
12. Wes Welker, New England Patriots - Perhaps the greatest beneficiary of the new Patriots' offense, Welker has had back-to-back 110+ catch seasons. Brady's return should put Welker back in the end zone a few more times.
13. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs - Bowe is entering the legendary "third season for a wide receiver," and will likely be drafted higher in many leagues because of it. He's certainly talented, and his quarterback this year (Matt Cassel) should be at least as good as last year's (Tyler Thigpen). But the loss of Tony Gonzalez is big, and I'm wary of saying Bowe is a stand-alone top-tier WR.
14. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills - At some point, Owens will lose a step and become just a big wide receiver without much fantasy potential. Despite last year's drop off in production, I don't think we're there yet. Owens is still an impressive physical specimen, and I imagine he'll be looking to disprove his detractors this season. A motivated T.O. is a sight to see.
15. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks - Everything was a little worse last year in Cincinnati, but I think you can attribute most of that to Carson Palmer's absence. Housh won't have Chad Johnson (or Chad Ochocinco) opposite him in Seattle, but he should still be able to get close to 100 catches as well as solid yardage and TD numbers.
    
16. Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns - Many, many people became disillusioned with Braylon Edwards last season, which is exactly why he needs to be on your radar this season. His true skills probably lie somewhere in between his explosive 2007 and his implosive 2008. I'd be surprised if he didn't get double-digit touchdowns this season.
    
17. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers - Despite Santonio Holmes' emergence as a legitimate receiving threat, Ward remained Ben Roethlisberger's favorite target. He may be getting on in years, but I'm not betting against Ward. Like, ever.
    
18. Santana Moss, Washington Redskins - Moss always seems to make his hay in a couple of first-half games, then peter off towards the end of the season. I say draft him on his full-season numbers, but if his value goes up again early on (and it will), trade him.
    
19. Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Bryant is the poster boy for the phrase, "Any given Sunday." He's got a career of ups and downs that always hinted at talent, but until last season never materialized. Do we buy into one season of production or a career of disappointment? I'm avoiding Bryant unless the draft value is considerable.
20. Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys - Williams became the #1 wide receiver in Dallas when Owens left, but he's still behind Jason Witten when it comes to Romo's favorite receivers. He's got a career of explosive play, injuries, and inconsistency. He'll be in the best opportunity of his career this season, which is why I've got him ranked fairly high, but he's still a risky pick.
21. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers - It's taken a while, but the Northern Colorado product has finally become a legitimate starting wide receiver. He was particularly good in the crunch last season, which could be a sign of things to come. Or it could just be the nature of football.
22. Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals - It was only a year ago that Chad Johnson (as he was then named) was coming off of his 5th straight 1200+ yard, 7+ TD season. Carson Palmer's absence last year was, I believe, the reason for Johnson's weak performance. Ryan Fitzpatrick had trouble hitting him in stride, as evidenced by a drop of more than 50% off of Johnson's career yards-after-catch average. I think he'll bounce back, contingent upon Palmer's health.
23. Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos - Royal lost his Pro Bowl quarterback, his opposite receiver wants a trade, and defenses have a full year of film on him. All the logic says to be wary of Royal, but I can't shake the positive vibes I got from watching him play last year. I say take him.
24. Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills - Normally I wouldn't see adding a new #1 receiver as a reason to think more of a receiver, but Evans has always seemed best suited to a Robin role. He's a home run threat, so with defenses having to worry about T.O., I see a lot of opportunities to get downfield and open. His upside is Braylon Edwards from two years ago.
    
25. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers - Holmes got a lot of publicity for his fantastic Super Bowl catch, but other than that, his third year in the NFL was fairly pedestrian. I still think he's got the ability to get to another level, hence the ranking, but make sure you don't let his highlight reel affect your judgment.
26. Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints - He may not be supremely talented, but he's in one of the best spots in football for a receiver. A thousand yards and ten touchdowns is a solid bet.
    
27. Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis Colts - Another opportunity guy; the Colts will pass, and Gonzo will start, so voila! Statistics.
28. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles haven't ever really had much in the way of receivers, so it didn't come as much of a surprise that Jackson immediately became their best fantasy wideout. No reason to not expect some improvement.
29. Devin Hester, Chicago Bears - Jay Cutler had a lot of success working with Eddie Royal, who's got a similar skillset to Hester. I fully expect Hester to be considerably better with Cutler in town.
    
30. Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams - With Torry Holt moving on, Avery becomes the best receiver on the Rams. Not encouraging for Rams fans, but it makes him worth a draft pick for us fantasy owners.
    
31. Ted Ginn Jr., Miami Dolphins - While the Dolphins' offense will likely be conservative again, there will be plenty of opportunities for him to shine. Even withGreg Camarillo and Davone Bess competing for looks, I believe Ginn will do far more with his chances.
32. Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings - There's really no good bet on who'll be quarterbacking this team, but it's safe to say Berrian will be going deep. The guy is a twig, but he can make big plays.
    
33. Kevin Walter, Houston Texans - He really just seems like a 900 yard, 5 TD guy. He'll be solid, but nothing to get excited about.
34. Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers - Speaking of nothing to get excited about, Driver is well into his NFL career. He's reliable and not at all flashy, but to fill out your starting roster, reliable is a good thing.
35. Laveranues Coles, Cincinnati Bengals - I'm expecting a little bit of a bounce back for Coles in his new digs. Nothing fancy, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he got back to 1000+ yards.
36. Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets - With the departure of Coles, Cotchery becomes the Jets' most proven receiver. The QB situation is far from desirable, but Cotchery should still be productive.
37. Steve Breaston, Arizona Cardinals - Breaston is a real wild card, because he oscillated between great and missing without any apparent rhyme or reason. If Boldin gets dealt, Breaston becomes much more valuable, but if not, I'd be wary of starting him unless you have to.
    
38. Domenik Hixon, New York Giants - With Plaxico Burress facing likely jail time, and seemingly not welcome back in New York, someone else will have to step up. Hixon feels like the most likely candidate, but Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss, and others all figure to get their shots.
    
39. Torry Holt, Jacksonville Jaguars - Holt used to be one of the elite wide receivers in football, but now he's just a default #1 on a team with a crummy passing game. He'll probably be no better than he was last year (800 yards, 3 TDs), but no worse either.
40. Michael Jenkins, Atlanta Falcons - I'm counting on improvement throughout the Falcons' passing game, but Jenkins figures to benefit the least from the arrival of Tony Gonzalez. His touchdowns will probably stay low, but his yards could get a bump.
41. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers - I've never had much faith in rookie wide receivers, but someone will have to catch passes for the 49ers. Crabtree has as good a chance as any to be their biggest producer.
42. Steve Smith, New York Giants - He and Domenik Hixon figure to be the most likely starting two for the Giants this season. They'll still be a run-first team, but with perhaps the league's best offensive line, there'll be opportunities for receivers to make plays.
43. Isaac Bruce, San Francisco 49ers - Bruce quietly had a fairly productive season in 2008. While Michael Crabtree will steal some looks, and San Francisco has a very questionable quarterback situation, Bruce will probably fall backwards into 750 yards and a few touchdowns, which is fine for your fourth receiver.
44. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings - He won't be able to help being a better producer than the Vikings' last highly touted WR draft pick, that bum Troy Williamson. He also doesn't have much competition for looks in the passing game, so the opportunity for a surprise rookie explosion is there...if anyone can get him the ball.
45. Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans - Washington goes from #3 receiver in Pittsburgh to #1 receiver in Tennessee. His situation got a lot worse, but there's an opportunity for success here. He's worth a flier on your bench.
46. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders - The Raiders boasted one of the weakest passing attacks of the decade last season, and they did nothing to inspire much hope for improvement. But it's obvious that Heyward-Bey will get opportunities, and he does have talent. He's the best option on Oakland, which puts him squarely at #46 overall.
47. Greg Camarillo, Miami Dolphins - Either Camarillo or Davone Bess will get the starting gig alongside Ted Ginn; my guess is Camarillo. He's not much of a candidate for an explosion, but he should be solid.
48. Justin Gage, Tennessee Titans - Gage was one of my favorite receivers to target in Madden 2001. It's taken him a while to get going, but he seems to have found a nice little niche in Tennessee. He won't be great, but he just might be good for 800 yards and 5-7 TDs.
49. Deion Branch, Seattle Seahawks - Nate Burleson might be more talented than Branch, but Burleson seems too similar to Houshmandzadeh for them to be on the field together all that often. My guess is Branch will be the better producer.
50. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles - There's usually a rookie wide receiver who plays really well, and it's not always the first receiver taken (Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin). Maclin comes into a good situation with a talented QB and unimpressive WRs in front of him. Why not Maclin?
    

2009 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet - QB

We'll start this season's cheat sheets with the position that scores the most points in the majority of leagues: the quarterback. This cheat sheet assumes 1 point per 25 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing, 4 points per passing TD, and -2 points per interception.

Other cheat sheets:
QB | WR | RB | TE

UPDATE: Favre's retirement changes the list a little bit. Do you think it was my cold, unforgiving commentary that convinced Favre to stay retired? Me too.

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints - Brees probably won't match his numbers from last season, but in standard scoring leagues, he's still your number one option. Touchdowns are tough to predict, but you know for sure that the Saints will be passing a ton, and that Brees will rack up yards.
2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts - It's certainly possible that Brady or Rivers will score more points than Manning this year. When it comes to quarterback, though, reliability is as important as anything, and Manning is the one sure bet, every year. It'll be interesting to see how he operates with Marvin Harrison gone for good, but I don't doubt that Manning will still put up top-tier quarterback numbers.
3. Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Last year was the first year ever that I didn't underestimate Brady, and it was the one year he really disappointed. The word is that he's fully recovered and will be able to step back in and get back to tossing touchdowns. With Matt Cassel being traded, I believe it's true.
4. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers - Rivers quietly led the NFL in touchdown passes and passer rating last year. He was a little up-and-down, with four games of zero or one TD pass, but he'll win you plenty of games to make up for his slip-ups. Also, everyone after Rivers has some kind of question mark, so you should put a little star by his name as the end of a tier.
   
5. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - Remember when Rodgers fell and fell in the first round of the draft a few years ago? Oops? Rodgers has a great WR corps and has been improving as he gets more playing experience. Maybe Greg Jennings is why Rodgers is good; maybe it's the other way around. Who cares as long as they're racking up yards?
6. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys - I'm not so foolish as to think that Romo will be better without Terrell Owens; Owens makes any offense better. But if you look at last season, Romo's performance seems to be linked more strongly to the presence of Marion Barber than of Owens. If Barber can stay healthy (which should be easier with Felix Jones getting into the mix more), Romo should be just fine.
7. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals - I don't like Warner at all. This ranking is basically just me saying that any quarterback with Boldin and Fitzgerald on his team is a top 10 quarterback. Blah.
   
8. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles - Last season was the first time in five years that McNabb played in all 16 games, which doesn't exactly make you want to run out and grab him. He also doesn't really run anymore, which is more of a problem for Eagles fans than fantasy owners, but it's another factor. His receiving options are the best since T.O. left, but I'd still be wary of investing in such a question mark.
9. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals - He was hurt most of last year, and all it takes is half a year for people to forget about a very solid player (see Randy Moss). He's going to have to learn how to move the ball down the field without one of his favorite targets (T.J. Houshmandzadeh), but he's got the talent to succeed. A lot of his production will depend on how quickly he gets on the same page as #85.
10. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears - On a general level, I think the Bears did okay by acquiring Cutler. He's a high caliber passer, and the Bears' passing attack was very weak last year. To me, though, Kyle Orton wasn't the problem. The utter lack of receiving threats was the issue, and that hasn't changed. Cutler should be decent, but I wouldn't expect many 300+ yard games.
11. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan was one of the great stories of last year, coming into a difficult situation as a rookie QB and leading his team to the playoffs. He's got plenty of talent around him now, and he was a productive rookie. He'll only get better from here.
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - I hate the Steelers. That said, they've become a much more balanced offensive team in recent years. Roethlisberger's production has been up and down, though. He's got only one season with 20 or more TDs, which is the same number of seasons in which he's accumulated 20 or more INTs. I expect him to rebound from last season, but he'll never be a top-tier option at quarterback.
    
13. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans - Schaub is a moderately talented, injury-prone quarterback who happens to have one of the best wide receivers in the game to throw to in Andre Johnson. He can be plenty productive when healthy, but I don't really expect him to be healthy. Schaub is a good choice as an early backup QB, but I'd be wary of picking him to be your starter.
    
14. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks - Hasselbeck was abysmal last year in seven games, but it wasn't so long ago that he had put together a nice little stretch of seasons. He's not ever going to be a superstar; his time for that has passed. But the addition of Houshmandzadeh will give him by far the surest hands he's ever had to throw to. Partner that with the emergence of John Carlson, and Hasselbeck is a top-flight backup, with starter potential.
15. Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos - I know, he may not have Brandon Marshall. I know, he was never very good in Chicago. But he's only 27, last year was his first full season as a starter (as well as the first season his coaches showed any confidence in him), and while he wasn't outstanding, he was fairly productive. Even without Marshall, I like Denver's receiving options better than the clowns Orton had in Chicago. And if Marshall ends up coming back, I like Orton as a late starter pick.
16. Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs - Cassel's draft position is one of the more interesting stories this season. He excelled in New England last year, but there are questions as to whether that's a repeatable performance in Kansas City. He'll have vastly inferior receiving talent, and a suspect running game. I expect Cassel to be taken as a starter in a lot of leagues, but I wouldn't put my eggs in his basket...metaphorically.
17. Eli Manning, New York Giants - Eli is a guy who goes higher in public leagues because people know the name and he's a Super Bowl champion, but he belongs right about here. He had only five multi-touchdown games, and only six games in which he threw for 200 or more yards. The previous three years he threw 17, 18, and 20 interceptions. He's a fine real-life quarterback, but for fantasy purposes, let someone else carry this dead weight.
18. Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills - Edwards didn't show anything special last year, but the addition of Terrell Owens to any offense is a boon. Additionally, Edwards is still young, and showed definite improvement in his second season as quarterback. He's still got plenty he can improve upon, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't have his first 20-touchdown season in 2009.
19. David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars - I've never been a big David Garrard fan, because I don't love guys who make their living on being just "good enough." He's a nice quarterback for his team, as he's able to avoid turnovers and generate first downs, but he's not a great fantasy player. The addition of Torry Holt should help some, but I don't expect it'll make enough of a difference for you to want Garrard as your starting QB.
    
20. Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers - Delhomme is sort of like Matt Schaub Lite. His upside is lower, but he's also a slightly safer bet for a full, healthy season. He's nothing to get excited about, but should be a solid backup.
21. Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins - Despite the Redskins being in talks to acquire Jay Cutler over the offseason, things seem to be looking up for Campbell. His passing yardage, rushing yardage, touchdowns, completion percentage, and passer rating went up for the third straight year. He's got a few good options to throw to (though no great ones), and a solid running game behind him. I look for improvement again.
22. Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins - Pennington isn't going to make anyone excited, and he's not going to perform any better than he has in the past. But he's an efficient passer, and a fine backup. At the least, he won't kill your team when your starting QB has a bye week.
23. Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams - I don't know why, but I just don't believe Bulger is as bad as his performance the past two years has indicated. The Rams are still a ways off from being a good team again, and all of his receivers are gone, but even a small bounce back by Bulger makes him a viable option week-to-week.
24. Sage Rosenfels, Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings had been trying to trade for Rosenfels for a year, and with Brett Favre affirming his retirement, the path is fairly open for the Age of Sage to begin. The team can't be that happy with Tarvaris Jackson if they traded for someone to compete with him. If you're going to draft a Minnesota quarterback (which I'm not really recommending), I'd go with Rosenfels.
    
25. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens - Flacco wasn't an embarrassment as a rookie, and he had his share of bright moments. I think he's generally over-valued, especially when you look at his supporting cast, but he could be okay. At #25, really, you can't expect a lot.
    

Fantasy Football First Round Mockery - 2009

As some of you remember, I did a first round mock draft for baseball season. Not one to "leave it at that," here comes its football counterpart. We'll look at a 12-team league, standard scoring.

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings - Kind of a no-brainer. You'd like him to factor into the passing game a little more, but that's being picky. If you've got the #1 pick, don't get fancy, just draft Peterson and let the other folks sort out the rest. Projected stats: 1800 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards, 16 TDs.
   
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars - Quietly, Jones-Drew has become the next Brian Westbrook. He's a huge factor as a receiver, and he's a high quality rusher as well. There's some risk in projecting him to improve when he's got thefull load, but worst case scenario he's "only" as good as he was last year. Projected stats: 1300 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, 15 TDs.
3. Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons - Turner showed he's got a nose for the end zone last year, and the Falcons showed that they're committed to the running game. I'm not necessarily expecting an improvement on last year's breakout season, but he'll get close enough that you won't regret this pick. Projected stats: 1600 rushing yards, 15 TDs.
4. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers - It seemed like there was a point in the season when things just clicked into place for the Panthers, and they figured out the perfect balance between Williams and the heavy hitter, Jonathan Stewart. You may have to deal with some ups and downs, but more ups than downs. Even a time-share with Stewart is going to yield big numbers. Projected stats: 1400 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, 12 TDs.
   
5. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers - I'd like to drop him even further down the list, but I can't in good conscience let him out of the top five. The success the Chargers had last year with the two-headed monster of Tomlinson and Darren Sproles gave you a look into 2009's likely scenario. Package that with Philip Rivers' growth at quarterback, and you're inexplicably looking at the sunset of Tomlinson's heyday. Projected stats: 1200 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards, 14 TDs.
6. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals - You'll find that I like wide receivers more than most fantasy football analysts you'll read online, but here's my logic. Running backs change every year, often within the year. The elite wide receivers on draft day are almost always still elite at the end of the year. Fitzgerald puts up running back numbers at wide receiver, and he's a safer bet to do it again. What's not to love? Projected stats: 1400 receiving yards, 13 TDs.
7. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears - Forte was a rousing success for the Bears, who didn't have a lot of those on offense. While he won't be leaned on to be as large a part of Chicago's offense in 2009, the offense as a whole should be better, and that will benefit Forte. A rookie who slides into the passing game as fluidly as he did last year won't have any trouble succeeding with improved quarterback play. Projected stats: 1300 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, 10 TDs.
8. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints - I used to be of the opinion that you had to ignore quarterbacks early on. Then I lost a few leagues and learned that sometimes, it's okay to take a signal-caller early. Brees is the cream of a pretty solid QB crop. He's had at least 4400 passing yards and 26 TDs in each of the past three seasons, and he's still only 30. New Orleans will keep needing to throw, and Brees will be the beneficiary. Projected stats: 4800 passing yards, 32 TDs, 16 INTs.
9. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams - Jackson has been one of the more frustrating players in fantasy football over the past few years. When healthy, he's been a monster. But he's missed four games in each of the past two seasons. I still say to take him in the first round, because when he can play, he'll win you games. Projected stats: 1300 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards, 11 TDs.
10. Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants - I've liked Jacobs for a while now, and last year he started to show exactly why. He pounded defenses for 15 TDs, and averaged 5.0 yards per carry for the second consecutive season. He may not catch passes, but a guy who can get into the end zone as reliably as Jacobs is a valuable commodity. Like vespene gas. Projected stats: 1200 rushing yards, 16 TDs.
11. Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans - Johnson has even more value in a point-per-reception league, but even if you're in a league with standard scoring, he's a beast and a first round pick. The consistency you get out of the huge reception guys means that you rarely have to worry about a bagel day, and Johnson gave you plenty of...whatever the opposite of bagels are. Eclairs, maybe. Projected stats: 1500 receiving yards, 10 TDs.
12. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers - If you had Gore last season (like I did), you feel like he never did anything. True, he didn't have any 200 yards games, but he was a pretty consistent performer for a team that was completely devoid of a passing attack. Not that it'll be much better this year, but Michael Crabtree should do, well, something. Plus he's a keeper on my fantasy team, so I need him to bounce back. Projected stats: 1300 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, 12 TDs.
    

Conspicuously absent from my first round list is Brian Westbrook. I think his reign of terror has come to a close. Last year was the first time in five years that he averaged less than 100 total yards of offense per game, and he was never really a guy people expected to be able to carry a full load. I think he'll still be a valuable player in both real and fantasy football, but I wouldn't tie my fate to him with a first round pick anymore.

My Town Rocks!

So anyhow, I'm writing this as a rebuttal of sorts to Joe's recent post, My Town Sucks, about his sports teams and their woes as of late. Please see below as he documents his loathing for Pittsburgh because they've had some winning years as of late and his hopes to crush his friends spirits by finding joy in their favorite teams failings.

I supposed that I understand how people would dislike Pittsburgh sports teams/sports fans because they are currently on top of two sports. But I would like to point out that really, Pittsburgh is a champion for small-market cities that generally have no chance to win in sports. Let's look at the traditionally good.... no great teams in sports.

NBA - LA Lakers are World Champions, have won 14 championships all time, only 2nd to Boston, with 17 championships- most recently last year. Both are big market cities, with lots of money and every advantage to win year in and out.

MLB- Seemingly the NY Yankees have won 1/2 of the championships ever and the best team in the past 5 years has been the Boston Red Sox.

NHL - Detroit won last year, Pittsburgh this year.

NFL - Pittsburgh current champs. New York last year. New England (Boston) has been the best team overall for the recent past.

What do most of these teams have in common? They are big-market teams with flashy owners and lots of money. Seemingly players would much rather live in New York, Chicago, LA, or Boston than they would Pittsburgh, Detroit, or Green Bay- thus making the big-market teams even more attractive to top-level free agents. Big-market teams are able to buy big-named players for their squads. Small-market teams have to depend on building teams through the draft and their farm systems. Lastly, small market teams often have family-run ownership with many years of stability. Large-market can have this too (Steinbrenner) but those teams would be much more likely to be bought up by businessmen looking to make more money off of a team than teams in Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City or Pittsburgh.

It is reasons like these that I would think that fans of a small market team from any city should root for a Pittsburgh team (or any other small market) before they'd ever root for a big-market team. Let's take a look at this year's 2 championship teams in Pittsburgh, shall we?

1. The Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL Stanley Cup Champions - Small Market franchise. Top Players - Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jordan Staal... each a first-round draft pick from 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006. They don't go after flashy free agents, their top free agent this year acquired from another team? Ruslan Fedotenko - who is 7th on the team in scoring. Head coach - Dan Bylsma - a first-time coach who started the year in the minors and never coached at any level prior to this year.
Owner? Mario Lemieux - who is the only reason that this team isn't the Kansas City Penguins. They were bankrupt 5 years ago and have the worst arena in the league. If he didn't care so much to keep the team he loved in Pittsburgh, it wouldn't be here anymore.

2. The Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL Super Bowl Champions - Small Market Franchise. Top Player- Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Troy Polamalu, Santonio Holmes, and James Harrison. Each of these players were either drafted by the Steelers, or signed as an undrafted rookie free agent (both Parker and Harrison). Top Free agent signed this year? Mewelde Moore, 3rd string RB and kick-returner. Their coach - Mike Tomlin, a man with one year of coordinator experience from another small market team. Owner - Dan Rooney, generally respected as one of the best owners in sports ever.

My points here are pretty clearly spelled out. Pittsburgh franchises go about things in the right way. They are small-market teams that build their teams through the draft and spend money on players that came up with their team, not using other small market teams as their own farm system. They have stable owners who are more interested in winning and tradition than they are in making money. In my opinion, any fan of a small market team should be appreciative of these traits, root for small market teams vs big market clubs, and hope that their teams can someday follow Pittsburgh's blueprint and win their own World Championship.

Top Five 2009 Fantasy Football Sleepers Version 2.0

In the same spirit of my Busts 2.0, here we go with the second iteration of my sleeper list. Again, if you think I'm wrong, yell at me and spit in my face. I find it strangely arousing.

Once again, I'm basing a player's "stock" on Yahoo's fantasy football Big Board.

1. Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos - Yes, Jay Cutler is a better quarterback than Kyle Orton. But it stands to reason that Royal is a better fit for Orton's skills/comfort zone. Royal is more of a "find me and I'll blow this open" than Marshall, who's a jump ball maestro. I see Royal improving on last year's numbers, and if your league gives points for return yards, he's a stud. 2009 projected stats: 100 catches, 1150 yards, 800 return yards, 9 total TDs
   
2. Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles - Though it pains me to say it, McNabb has become one of the more underrated passers in the league. His health is always an issue, but he played 16 games last year and posted a career high in yards. And even though his rushing yardage has dropped dramatically, he's still the most elusive guy in football, and that means plays get extended. I hate-respect him. 2009 projected stats: 3800 yards, 24 TDs, 10 INTs
3. Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers - How is this guy outside the top 5 quarterbacks on the Big Board? Part of it has to do with everyone's love affair with Kurt Warner (which I assure you will end this year), but I have to think the rest of it is that people still don't realize how good Rivers is. Only twice last year did he have more INTs than TDs, he led the NFL in TDs, passer rating, and TD-to-INT ratio. Now do you know? 2009 projected stats: 4100 yards, 33 TDs, 11 INTs
4. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings - Harvin is as talented as any receiver in this year's draft. He'll have the opportunity to win playing time (from...Bobby Wade?). And he'll benefit from the scariest play-action move in football (everyone's head turns when Adrian Peterson gets the ball). Hey, there's always one or two rookie receivers who blow up. My bet is on Harvin. 2009 projected stats: 70 catches, 900 yards, 6 TDs
5. Johnnie Lee Higgins, WR, Raiders - In a preseason game last season, Higgins returned a punt 40 yards for a touchdown, then did a cartwheel and a backflip...after the run. While all the talk will be about Darius Heyward-Bay, and while Javon Walker is certainly the incumbent, there's no doubting Higgins' ability. Over the last three games of the season, he notched twelve catches and four touchdowns (one returning). I don't imagine the Raiders will be all that potent, but Higgins is too good to be kept down. 2009 projected stats: 45 catches, 750 yards, 1200 return yards, 6 total TDs
   

Top Five 2009 Fantasy Football Busts Version 2.0

We got a comment on my original post of 2009 fantasy football busts, and it made me realize that a ton of stuff has changed since that post. So, I figure it's time to update things with a new list. So let's have a look at some players that I think won't justify their draft position during the upcoming season. Feel free to chime in if you like.

1. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers - I think my original projections were a little low, but still below elite. And for a likely top ten overall pick, you're going to want more than that. 2009 projected stats: 1400 total yards, 10 TDs
2. Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals - Listen, Kurt Warner is a nice story. And he's back in Arizona, which bodes well (it's hard to be that bad with Larry Fitzgerald). But Warner will be 38 when the season starts, and he's now being ranked as the #4 quarterback on the Big Board, the #25 player overall. No thank you. 2009 projected stats: 3500 yards, 20 TDs, 18 INTs
3. Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins - Maybe part of this is the homer in me wanting to get Portis out of town, but his production has been volatile. Come fantasy playoff time, Portis was non-existent, averaging 50 yards and .5 TDs during weeks 13-16. The Redskins' offensive line troubles don't help. 2009 projected stats: 1350 total yards, 9 TDs
4. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons - Listen, I think Gonzalez is a nice addition for the Falcons. He gives Matt Ryan a veteran target in the passing game. But I don't see him getting better with age; rather, I see a regression to the mean. 2009 projected stats: 70 catches, 750 yards, 6 TDs
5. Matt Schaub, QB, Texans - Schaub has been a sexy pick for two years because of his skills and the fact that he's got Andre Johnson on his team, and for two years he's disappointed. He played 11 games each of those seasons, with a 24-19 TD-to-INT ratio. It might be time to accept that he's just a serviceable quarterback, and won't get much better than this. I never thought I'd say this, but they'll miss Sage Rosenfels. 2009 projected stats: 3300 yards, 16 TDs, 12 INTs

Tell me I'm wrong; I love it.

Top Five 2009 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Last week, I wrote up the top five likely busts for the 2009 fantasy football season, and hinted at this article's pending arrival. Not wanting to perpetuate the disappointment that often comes with any claim or promise made by Joe and Joe Sports, I present to you this article, addressing the players who might be under-valued going into next season. As with the last article, many things can change between now and then (retirements, free agency, trades, draft picks, etc), and this list is likely very different from one I might write in two months, let alone going into the 2009 season. But it's a fun exercise (which distinguishes it from leg lifts, a decidedly unpleasant exercise), so here we go.

1. Joseph Addai - Addai was a first round pick coming into this season, and was generally one of the most disappointing players in fantasy sports. He finished with just 544 yards and 5 TDs, and missed weeks 15 and 16 (fantasy playoff time) due to injury. All that being said, I like Addai to be a high level producer next year. He figures to be the featured back from week 1, and the Colts' offense is always one of the best in the NFL when Manning is healthy, which he should be from the get-go next year. My advice is to watch him slip to the third and fourth rounds, and scoop him up. 2009 projections: 1400 total yards, 12 TDs
2. Tom Brady - Brady is the kind of guy who's going to have lots of questions surrounding him next year, regardless of whether or not Matt Cassel returns (which I expect he won't). Brady, as you may remember, set a single-season record for passing touchdowns in 2007 with 50, and likely helped some opponent of yours nab the fantasy championship last year. And yet, there will likely be three or four QBs taken before him in your draft next year (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers all figure to be in the mix). Brady was never the beneficiary of pristine mechanics or a rocket arm. He's a smart quarterback who's got a great scheme and fantastic receivers for it, and all of that will be the same when he starts playing football again. Draft Brady with confidence anytime after the third round. 2009 projections: 4100 yards, 30 TDs, 13 INTs
   
3. Marques Colston - Normally I wouldn't put a guy who's got Colston's kind of track record on this list, but it seems like people still aren't sold on him. He missed 5 games this season, and finished with numbers that are unimpressive even when projected out for 16 games. But don't let the numbers deceive you. Colston is a very talented receiver who'll still have Drew Brees throwing to him, and will still be the #1 receiver in an extremely pass-happy offense. He's going to put up great numbers, and would be a steal in the fifth or sixth rounds. 2009 projections: 90 catches, 1200 yards, 9 TDs.
4. Chad Johnson (Chad Ocho Cinco) - Johnson had by far the worst season of his career, with just 53 catches and 540 yards. And if you listened to my early predictions on fantasy production, he probably cost you some victories, and you want to extract your vengeance from my skull. That's understandable, but I'm going to keep riding this train. I look at 2008 as an anomoly, and I expect Chad to be a worthwhile pick next year. I'll caution you against drafting him too high, but if you can grab him as a late #2 or early #3 receiver for your team, he could be the guy who leads your team to the promised land. 2009 projections: 85 catches, 1250 yards, 9 TDs
5. Darren McFadden - I'm not ready to discount McFadden as "injury-prone" just yet, although it's certainly possible that he'll end up being that kind of guy. But after being hobbled and generally un-used for most of the season, McFadden stands a pretty good chance of being ignored on draft day. That would be a mistake. He still averaged 4.4 yards per carry, and is still a very talented player. The Raiders aren't skilled enough to keep a player like McFadden off the field for very long, so I expect he'll get more opportunities next year. Don't draft McFadden to start for your team, but when you're filling out your roster in the middle rounds, make sure you don't let him slip too far. 2009 projections: 1200 total yards, 8 TDs

Top Five 2009 Fantasy Football Busts

It's never too early to start talking about the next fantasy season, especially for those of you in keeper leagues. So, as sort of a half 2008 wrap-up, half 2009 preview, let's take a look at the guys who played above their potential in 2008, and will likely be disappointments next season. This is, of course, with only partial information, so much can (and probably will) change before next season. Whatever, it's fun.

1. DeAngelo Williams - Listen, Williams was awesome this season. He was particularly dominant in the second half of the season, posting at least 70 yards and a touchdown in each of the past 8 games, and recording two games with 4 touchdowns, including in week 16, which likely won games for most of his owners. His stock will be in the clouds going into next season; I've seen projections that have him in the top 5. Wrong. He'll be good, but Jonathan Stewart is likely to figure into the offense more next year, and he was already a touchdown hawk. Look for a two-headed monster next year that gives fantasy owners fits. 2009 projections: 1200 total yards, 10 TDs
2. Matt Cassel - Cassel was actually not as good as people might feel. He had five games where he threw at least 3 TDs, but also had four games when he didn't score at all, far too many for an elite level QB. He can be solid, but no way does he come anywhere near the top guys' production (Manning, Brees, Romo, Brady). I do place one caveat on this, though. If he goes to Arizona this offseason, Cassel will be worth at least a 4th round pick, and should be considered a potential keeper. 2009 projections: 3800 yards, 24 TDs, 15 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
   
3. Dallas Clark - Another beneficiary of great fantasy playoff production, Clark had a touchdown in each of the final three games of the fantasy season (assuming your championship game is in week 16...and if it's not, you've probably got some hokey champions). People who won playoff games with Clark or lost games because of him will think of him as a powerhouse, but the reality is that, even with Harrison less than fantastic and injuries in the running game, creating a greater opportunity for Clark to step up and post big numbers, he accumulated only 789 yards and 6 TDs. Those are fine numbers from a tight end, as long as you're drafting him in the 10th round. Don't overpay, that's all I'm saying on this or any of these. 2009 projections: 700 yards, 8 TDs
   
4. Thomas Jones - Because he didn't get consistent playing time until 2004, many of your fellow fantasy owners won't realize that Jones will be 31 when the season opens next year. Don't make the same mistake. While he's been effective for 5 years now, he's in the midst of a career year, and the chances that he matches this production next year are extremely slim. Definitely take a look at Leon Washington in the later rounds, though. He's got great explosiveness, and if he's given a chance to be the featured back, he could be a stud. 2009 projections: 1100 total yards, 4 TDs
5. Kurt Warner - While I think Warner will be a colossal bust to anyone who drafts him next year, I've got him at number five because I think a lot of people will realize that he's not that good. His contract is up after this season, and I don't see him returning to the passing heaven that is the Arizona Cardinals. That means he'll be joining a team without two elite level wide receivers, and I just don't like Warner at all in Tampa Bay or Cleveland or wherever. 2009 projections: 3100 yards, 18 TDs, 20 INTs

I should note that two of the guys on the list, Williams and Cassel, were on my fantasy championship team. However, I managed to talk myself out of starting Cassel on most occasions, opting for Romo instead. So, thank goodness for DeAngelo. :)

I've got a similar article in the works, one that will focus on the opposite type of players: players who were disappointing this year, but I expect to bounce back next season. Should be up next week.

Your Team vs. Your Fantasy Team

A busy Sunday afternoon. Watching your team on TV, monitoring your Fantasy team on the stat-tracker. The big question comes to mind, where are your priorities? Its the BIG "would you rather" question.

Would you rather see your NFL team of choice win over their most recent opponent? Or would you rather see your Fantasy team bring you one win closer to your own championship?

Its a tough call, but let's breakdown some scenarios...

The biggest factor here (as in most every scenario in life) is $$$Money$$$. If you've invested big dollars into your fantasy team, you are gambling (some leagues, depending on other owners are safer gambles than others, but overall, its a gamble). With all that in consideration, the more money you've invested into your fantasy team, the more important a win for your fantasy team is. The great part about fantasy football is that it brings the NFL right into your backyard.

The negative to fantasy football is the ability to turn you against your NFL team. Its a great way to "hedge" your football Sunday, but overall, being an NFL fan is about cheering for your team. I didn't get into watching football on Sundays because my fantasy team was playing. As a fan of the Baltimore Ravens, I got into the NFL because watching my team gave me a chance to enjoy the company of my family while watching the game, talk trash to my Steeler friends/frat brothers, and got me out of the house on Sundays to the bar to socialize with my other football friends. All in all, its cheering for my team that makes the NFL special to me.

Bottom line... I would take a Ravens win over a Mercer AutoWreckers victory every week. The random weeks when both are winners is a true treat. Even more so, and the point I really want to drive home is... you can't take fantasy league victories into bragging rights of your NFL team's home or (for me...) the away team's stadium. NFL team over Fantasy team every week.

I understand the money aspect to fantasy and why those well-invested into their fantasy teams would always choose a fantasy win, but for me, its hard to take camaraderie over the selfishness of a fantasy league win.

Thoughts? Opinions?

Buy, Sell, Buy, Sell

This is a point in the fantasy football season where a deal can make or break your season. Football is particularly tough to make predictions for, because the game is so violent and so dynamic that many players can lose their jobs due to injury or ineffectiveness. This is particularly true of running backs, which of course are the backbone of most fantasy football teams (and is the reason I recommend investing heavily in your quarterback and wide receivers).

So how do you know what moves you should make, and what moves you shouldn't make? Well, there's no surefire way to tell, and anyone who says they can is lying. It's a lot like poker in that regard. The idea isn't to make one right decision by acquiring one specific player. The way you win is by making as many correct decisions as possible. This includes waiver acquisitions and making trades, but also includes not making trades.

Here are five guys you should buy low/not trade. Following that will be a list of five guys you should sell high/not trade for.

Buy Low/Wait It Out

1. Chad Johnson - You may not like his attitude, but his talent is as good as anyone in the league not named Moss or Owens. Five straight years of 1250+ yards and 7+ TDs says to me that this slump won't hold.
2. Ryan Grant - I don't think he'll be able to get to last year's post-bye-week pace (roughly 100 yards and a TD per game), but he's going to be productive. And as the weather demands more of a ground game, Grant will rise to the occasion.
3. Steven Jackson - Chances are, his owner won't part with him for that much under the pre-season value, but if you can get any kind of discount on Jackson, go get him. He's a no-brainer fantasy stud.
4. Torry Holt - Word is, the first thing new coach Jim Haslett did when he took over the Rams was tell Al Saunders to give Holt the damn ball. Good enough for me.
5. Matt Hasselbeck - When he lost Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson, and Deion Branch early, you knew Hasselbeck was going to have a rough start. But Engram and Branch are getting healthier, and Hasselbeck is too good to be held down for too long. Also, the Seahawks play the Rams and Jets in weeks 15 and 16, not bad playoff matchups.

Sell High/Don't Buy The Hype

1. Brett Favre - It's a nice story, but Favre isn't going to have many more 3 touchdown games, let alone 6 touchdown games. I think he'll still be productive, but if you can find someone who thinks he's an elite level QB, let them pay for him.
2. Reggie Bush - His point totals are bumped by three (count 'em, three) return touchdowns. Teams will stop punting to him, and with Deuce McAllister getting healthier, Bush will turn into just a solid receiver.
3. Kurt Warner - Warner is only a few weeks removed from being uncertain as the starter in Arizona, and only a week removed from a 6-turnover game. If the Cardinals begin to slip and Warner returns to his giveaway ways, I could actually see the team going with Matt Leinart. That means, sell sell sell.
4. Felix Jones - Jones won't get more than 8 carries a game, and some play in the return game. But his scoring right now isn't bad for a flex option or backup RB. Move him now and get someone you can rely on.
5. Laveranues Coles - Coles' season numbers are bumped by the Arizona game, when he had 44% of his receptions, 41% of his yardage, and 75% of his TDs. Make a move while his averages still look impressive.
   

Fantasy Football: Kicker and Defense Rankings

I don't make lists for kickers or defenses. You know why? Because defenses are very difficult to predict, and kickers are impossible to predict. Allow me to show you why kickers are a joke.

These are the top point-scoring kickers for the past three years, and where they were drafted in my main league, relative to other kickers:

2007: Mason Crosby (undrafted)
2006: Robbie Gould (undrafted)
2005: Neil Rackers (undrafted)
2004: Adam Vinatieri (10th kicker taken)

Each of those guys was obviously taken among the first few kickers off the board the next season, and each time the person who took him was disappointed. At some point, you have to grow up and realize that there's no way to predict a kicker's performance from year to year. So just pick one up whenever and know that he won't be that much worse than any other kicker could've been.