2010 MLB Playoff Predictions

I put out the call to friends and partners of Joe and Joe Sports for MLB playoff predictions, and here are the results. There's always one guy (Beemiller this time) who lets his predictions take on a life of their own, and we're the beneficiaries, because we get to read them.

Enjoy.

Josh Beemiller, friend of Joe and Joe Sports

Rays/Rangers - Cliff Lee shuts down the Rays in game one, but the Rays remember they are good and pound the snot out of the Rangers for the rest of the series. Rays in 4.

Yankees/Twins - Minnesota's groundball-happy pitching staff causes Jeter to hit into an ALDS record 17 double plays. New acquisition Randy Moss, batting cleanup for the concussed Justin Morneau, only has 4 hits in the series, all for homeruns.

Reds/Phils - Joey Votto continues to be awesome, hitting .500 with a pair of homeruns. However, after winning game one, Dusty "Destroyer of Arms" Baker has Volquez start games 2 and 3 as well. Phils in 5.

Braves/Giants - Giants pitch their way to a sweep. Huff, Burrell, and Posey each have a game winning homerun in the trio of 1-0 contests.

ALCS Rays/Twins - Down 3-1 in game 5 (and in the series), Joe Mauer hits a go-ahead 3-run homer. Twins go on to win the series in 7 games.

NLCS Phils/Giants - Giants continue their shutout streak in games 1 and 2. Cole F****** Hamels pitches brilliantly to put his team back in the series, and the Phils remember how to hit. The Giants don't. Phils in 6

World Series Twins/Phils - In one of the best World Series in recent memory, the two teams alternate wins for the first 6 games. In the 5th inning of game 7, with Randy Moss on 3rd, Jason Kubel fails to get the bunt down on the suicide squeeze. It doesn't matter, however, as Moss had just walked off the field. In the postgame press conference, he would later say he figured Kubel would hit a sac fly, so he didn't really need to "hustle" on that play. Later, with the score tied at 4, Ryan Howard hits his first homer of the series. The score remains 5-4 in the top of the ninth, until Joe Mauer hits a game tying shot with 2 outs. Matt Capps comes on to keep the tie in place in the bottom of the 9th, and does so, but not before three balls reach the warning track. In the top of the 11th, Denard span hits a leadoff triple, and later scores on a Mauer sac fly. After exhausting his bullpen, both in the series and in this game, Minnesota is forced to bring in Carl "The Mustach" Pavano to close it out. Phils get two runners on with one out, before Raul Ibanez hits into the series-ending double play.

Twins in 7. Total runs scored in WS - 63.


Alex Hardin, Beltway Braves

Divisional Round

MIN over NYY

TB over TEX

SF over ATL

PHI over CIN

League Championship Series

TB over MIN
SF over PHI

World Series

SF over TB in 6 games


Chip Hart, friend of Joe and Joe Sports

ALDS

Rays over Rangers
Yankees over Twins

NLDS

Phillies over Reds
Giants over Braves

ALCS

Rays over Yankees

NLCS

Phillies over Giants

WORLD SERIES

Phillies over Rays in 6
45 total runs


Joe Mandi, Joe and Joe Sports

AL

Yankees over Twins
Rays over Rangers

Rays over Yankees

NL

Giants over Braves
Phillies over Reds

Giants over Phillies

World Series

Giants over Rays (in 6 games)
42 total runs


Ed Mattingly, friend of Joe and Joe Sports

Twins over Yankees
Rays over Rangers
Phillies over Reds
Braves over Giants

Twins over Rays
Phillies over Braves

Phillies over Twins (5 games)
36 total runs


Joe Mattingly, Joe and Joe Sports

Round 1

Rangers over Rays - Cliff Lee and Josh Hamilton will be shaky, but Ian Kinsler and Neftali Feliz will steady the ship.
Yankees over Twins - I wish the Twins would win, and everything I read says the Twins are a bad matchup for the Yankees...but they're the Yankees. Bastards.
Phillies over Reds - I think the Phillies are the best team in baseball.
Braves over Giants - Bobby Cox's magic could bring one more playoff series victory to Atlanta.

Round 2

Yankees over Rangers - I just don't see the Rangers in the World Series this year. But I do think they're headed in the right direction.
Phillies over Braves - I think the Phillies are the best team in baseball.

World Series

Phillies over Yankees (in 5) - You guessed it. I think the Phillies are the best team in baseball.
50 total runs.


Mike Mattingly, Opinionated Truths

Rays over Rangers
Yankees over Twins

Phillies over Reds
Giants over Braves

Rays over Yankees

Phillies over Giants

Phillies over Rays in 6

(43 total runs)

2010 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Draft Analysis

Relax, I'm not going to go through every pick. I'm just going to give a general feel, offer my thoughts on who each team's best and worst picks were, and give a grade for the whole draft. It'll be quick and fairly painless.

The draft can be viewed here.

#1 - Those Guys
They moved their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks in trades, so depth was going to be an obvious concern. Even still, they made smart picks with what they had, and there's potential for greatness down the road.

• Best Pick - Ted Lilly (9.12). Possibly the best pick of the whole draft.
• Worst Pick - Mariano Rivera (1.1). With no pick for four rounds, you'd have liked to see Those Guys grab someone with more upside, more long-term potential.
• Draft Grade: B-
  

#2 - Dunedain Rangers
The Roy Halladay/Dan Haren for Brandon Webb trade left the Rangers with two extra high draft picks, allowing them to trade their third round pick to re-acquire Haren. The Rangers grabbed several prospects, but in having only seven pitchers, they'll have a tough time competing at all this season without changes.

• Best Pick - Jason Kubel (6.2). He's young, and doesn't have to improve to be worth his slot.
  
• Worst Pick - Jay Bruce (1.11). His upside doesn't seem to be much higher than guys like Alfonso Soriano or Kubel or Raul Ibanez, all of whom went at least two rounds later.
  
• Draft Grade: B
  

#3 - The Usual Suspects
After clearing out talent and draft picks from 2009, the Suspects had a stacked draft this season. They were able to pile on talent, but I wonder if they might not have been better off playing it a little safer and grabbing a guy like Dan Uggla or Jose Lopez to man second base, rather than counting on Rickie Weeks' first healthy season...ever.

• Best Pick - Billy Butler (1.3) or Joakim Soria (2.1). Sometimes the easy picks are the best ones.
  
• Worst Pick - Carlos Beltran (4.8) AND Juan Pierre (4.9). Either one is a good pick. But drafting both seemed out of place with solid closers and Uggla & Lopez still on the board.
  
• Draft Grade: A-
  

#4 - Cleveland Enforcers
The Enforcers were the victims of some horrible luck in 2009, so they've got keepers with high upside, but still have a solid draft. They used their favorable draft picks to grab several high-end pitching prospects, and while the team will still live or die with its outfield, they're in solid shape going forward.

• Best Pick - Brian Fuentes (6.4). Despite his unexceptional peripherals in 2009, Fuentes racked up saves. I was surprised he lasted that long.
  
• Worst Pick - Rich Harden (2.4). At 28, with several injuries under his belt and an unimpressive 2009, I felt like he would've lasted longer.
  
• Draft Grade: B
  

#5 - DamKnights of Columbus
Tragedy struck Columbus when it was reported that Joe Nathan had a torn tendon in his pitching elbow and would miss the 2010 season. It happened mid-draft, after the Knights had already passed on several upper-tier closers. Still, their draft yielded several exciting young players to go with keepers who hit about .320 last year.

• Best Pick - Stephen Drew (13.5). Somehow, a consensus top 8 shortstop lasted until the second-to-last round of the draft.
  
• Worst Pick - James Loney (9.5). A little late to call it the "worst" pick, but I feel like Loney's numbers are easily replaceable. We should've all listened when the "experts" said he'll never hit 20 HR in a season.
  
• Draft Grade: A-
  

#6 - Mercer AutoWreckers
The AutoWreckers had a solid but unexciting draft. I don't see too much potential for guys to outperform expectations, which means another middle-of-the-pack finish seems in order.

• Best Pick - Hunter Pence (1.6). The former Mosquito will look dashing in AutoWrecker Blue.
  
• Worst Pick - Rick Porcello (8.1). I worry about a guy who doesn't strike anybody out.
  
• Draft Grade: B-

#7 - Vandelay Industries
As with most seasons, Vandelay spent much of the draft targeting high upside starting pitchers, sprinkling in hitters for flavor. This year, however, they used one of their keeper SPs (Jon Lester) to acquire Jimmy Rollins, solidifying their offense with perhaps the perfect piece to send them on a championship run.

• Best Pick - Edwin Jackson (9.7). A repeat of 2009 and a lot of people are going to look foolish for passing on him.
  
• Worst Pick - Manny Ramirez (1.7). Certainly the possibility of a great season is still there, but he's had trouble putting together a whole season of elite performance for a while now.
  
• Draft Grade: B

#8 - Stewies SexyParties
The SexyParties are always competitive because they've got three elite keepers in Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, and Ryan Braun. Their draft is always a matter of trying to surround those guys with complementary pieces, and this year Stewie was pretty successful. Most of their picks were good value, and while there's not much upside, the Sexies don't need all that much upside.

• Best Pick - Roy Oswalt (3.8). I just can't see him not bouncing back and having another solid season in 2010.
  
• Worst Pick - Daisuke Matsuzaka (6.8). There were more interesting guys still on the board, and Daisuke seemed to have been playing with fire for a while before last year's implosion.
  
• Draft Grade: B
  

#9 - Huber Heights Heroes
The recently renamed Heroes are a team that I have to judge slightly differently based on their unique, batting-average-punting strategy. Luckily, the strategy had a much greater impact on last year's draft than this year's. The Heroes' pitching is still suspect, but their hitting should keep them in the race most of the season.

• Best Pick - Dan Uggla (6.3). Uggla would've been a great fit for a lot of teams. I'm amazed he lasted as long as he did.
• Worst Pick - Garrett Jones (9.9). Jones is a fine player, but the Heroes needed speed from their last outfield spot. They grabbed Dexter Fowler in the twelfth who will likely start, but that means that they picked up Jones before him to be a bench player.
  
• Draft Grade: B-
  

#10 - Akron Pronks
After finishing with the bronze medal for the third straight season, you'd have thought the Pronks might take more chances on risky players to see if they could catch lightning in a bottle and win a title. But they ended up just taking more solid guys, and they look like they'll be in the mix again, but may unfortunately come up short one more time.

• Best Pick - Alexei Ramirez (6.10). It was a pretty late spot to grab your starting shortstop, but the Pronks did very well, grabbing a guy with impressive talent and, like most of their players, a power/speed combo.
  
• Worst Pick - Nate McLouth (5.10). Not a particuarly bad pick, per se, but I think there were better fits out there at this point in the draft. Uggla, for starters.
  
• Draft Grade: A-
  

#11 - Riders of Rohan
The Riders were without their own 1st and 2nd round picks, but through offseason trades acquired additional 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks. They were able to generate depth, but there's an obvious drop off in talent after the eight keepers. Their bullpen especially is full of questions.

• Best Pick - Alex Rios (6.11). If you look at 2009 as anomalous (and you should), Rios is a .290 hitter with power and speed.
  
• Worst Pick - Carlos Marmol (2.6). A failed attempt to trade up and acquire Joakim Soria left the Riders scrambling for saves. But they didn't really get good value with any of their closer picks.
  
• Draft Grade: B-
  

#12 - Feisty Mosquitoes
The champion drafts last, the only negative about grabbing a title. The Mosquitoes took their draft position as an impetus to take chances on young starters and worry about the rest of their pitching staff later. When you keep seven hitters, though, you're looking at pitchers anyways. And with the innate risk of any pitcher, at least with prospects you're getting a chance at gold.

• Best Pick - Raul Ibanez (5.12). He's got the potential to be just as good as several first round picks (Bruce, Manny, Pena). Great value.
  
• Worst Pick - A.J. Burnett (4.12). Initially, my thinking was that Burnett is on a good team and has talent, so what's not to like? But he was in the same situation last year, and he didn't do much with it.
  
• Draft Grade: B+
  

I would be remiss if I didn't mention how even I felt that all of the drafts were. I don't think any team had a particularly excellent or a particularly terrible draft. This speaks volumes to the growth of our league and its owners, and it makes me excited for how competitive this league could be in two or three years. I can see any of these teams winning the title in 2015...

...except Akron. They'll be in third.

2010 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Keeper Analysis

It's time to look at how the teams in our ultra-competitive keeper baseball league stack up. I know what you're saying. "Joe, you could've done this weeks ago." True, but had I done that, it might've affected our draft, and I'd never want to do that. I prefer that everyone make their moves, and I only look back in retrospect.

The first phase of this analysis will be to look at the keeper lists and give each one a rating out of 80, with 0 being eight unworthy keepers (think the Nationals' pitching staff) and 80 being eight first-round caliber keepers. With eight keeper slots, it'll be 10 points per slot, and I'll break it down slot-by-slot. We'll go in reverse draft order, starting with the #1 picking Those Guys, and moving on down to the Feisty Mosquitoes.

Those Guys

• Adrian Gonzalez, 1B - 8 points
  Gonzalez is an upper tier power hitter, and while he'll never pierce that fifth category (steals), his upwards potential upon his inevitable exodus from San Diego is very exciting.
• Grady Sizemore, OF - 7 points
  You have to think Sizemore will bounce back after a disappointing and injury-plagued 2009, but you also have to take into account that his strikeout numbers weren't really getting better, and his batting average has been going down for a few years now.
• Shane Victorino, OF - 6 points
  I'm not sure that Victorino can provide anything above his expectations, but with solid runs, batting average, and steals, along with not terrible power numbers, he can be a valuable piece to a championship puzzle
• Bobby Abreu, OF - 4 points
  It's not that there's anything wrong with Abreu's production. But he's 36 years old, and you can't expect his speed to hold up for much longer.
• Josh Beckett, SP - 7 points
  Outside of a rocky 2006, Beckett has been one of the most reliable and effective starting pitchers in baseball. He hasn't let down anyone who's paid for him in the past three years, and he's a safe bet for good production once again.
• Josh Johnson, SP - 6 points
  Johnson was everything fantasy owners could've hoped for and more in 2009. The problem is that it was the first time in three years that he'd been healthy. If he's healthy, he should be good again.
• John Lackey, SP - 4 points
  I'm not sure Lackey was ever as good as I used to say he was, but he's certainly solid. I don't think going from the AL West to the AL East helps his potential, though.
  
• Jonathan Papelbon, RP - 3 points
  Good closer, but just a closer.

Dunedain Rangers

• Brian McCann, C - 3 points
  You're not generally crazy about keeping a catcher, but McCann is good enough to justify it. He wouldn't be a keeper at any other position, though.
• Derrek Lee, 1B - 6 points
  Lee had a revitalization of sorts last year, and the hope is that he's back on track. Because of his up and down history, though, there is some risk.
• Chone Figgins, 3B - 6 points
  Figgins is a superstar when it comes to steals, and he generally does well in batting average and runs as well. His utter lack of power numbers mitigates his value somewhat, though.
• Jason Bartlett, SS - 5 points
  The worry here is that Bartlett had his first great year in 2009, and even his great year wasn't earth-shattering. A small step backwards and he's a borderline keeper.
• Denard Span, OF - 4 points
  I've seen Span valued very differently by different sources, so I'll put him somewhere in the middle. He'll need to take a step forward in speed or power to justify a keeper slot, though.
• Dan Haren, SP - 8 points
  While he's historically a first-half pitcher, his overall statistics are still very good. And if you can somehow dodge his end-of-season let-down, you've got a sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP over 20 starts.
• Brandon Webb, SP - 5 points
  If he comes back healthy and effective, he's a great keeper, probably a top 10 pitcher. But with the risk that all pitchers face in coming back from injury, the value is curtailed.
• (no 8th keeper) - 2 points
  Because you can get talent out of a supplemental pick, the lack of an 8th keeper still carries some value.

The Usual Suspects

• Matt Wieters, C - 4 points
  Plenty of upside, but it's as yet unrealized. What if he's just Ramon Hernandez?
• Albert Pujols, 1B - 10 points
  Duh.
• David Wright, 3B - 9 points
  His power outage in 2009 was of concern, but even a tiny bounce-back puts him on the cusp of the first round again. His across-the-board production is virtually unmatched at third base.
• Adam Jones, OF - 6 points
  Every expert I've read has declared Jones as a great guy to have this year, but in every mock I've seen, he doesn't go until the sixth or seventh round. Put your money where your mouth is, "experts."
• Nelson Cruz, OF - 4 points
  I really don't know what to expect out of Cruz, this year or any future year. But people say he'll be alright.
• Justin Verlander, SP - 8 points
  He's on that third tier of starting pitchers, just behind King Felix and CC Sabathia, and there's not really any reason he couldn't move up with another year like 2009.
• Tommy Hanson, SP - 6 points
  All offseason his value has gone up and up. It's not wrong that it's gone up, but I think you have to temper yourself a little bit when you're talking about a second-year pitcher.
• Ubaldo Jimenez, SP - 3 points
  He doesn't post completely replaceable stats, but he'll need to take a small step forward to justify being kept again.

Cleveland Enforcers

• Ben Zobrist, 2B - 7 points
  All the signs point to Zobrist being the real deal, even if it doesn't feel like he should be a star. I do wonder how his stats might fluctuate with the likely upcoming changes to the Rays' lineup.
• Alex Rodriguez, 3B - 10 points
  After years of being the consensus #1 pick, he's now only going 3rd or 4th. The title of "Best Player Since Barry Bonds" is split between him and Pujols.
• Gordon Beckham, 3B - 5 points
  I think we all expect him to continue to improve, but we've been waiting on Stephen Drew to improve for a while now without any luck. So you always have to be wary of youngsters.
• Jose Reyes, SS - 8 points
  I feel like I can't penalize Reyes for his subsequent health issues, since at the time keepers were submitted, he was generally healthy. His condition is obviously a concern for the Enforcers, though.
• B.J. Upton, OF - 5 points
  I know he's valuable and fairly well thought of. But I hate him.
• Josh Hamilton, OF - 4 points
  Even four points might be a reach, but he showed in the first half of 2008 that he can be a superstar. Here's hoping injuries don't put him away for good.
• Carlos Quentin, OF - 4 points
  His upside is a little bit lower than Hamilton's, but his likelihood of a rebound back to 2008 form is greater.
• Cole Hamels, SP - 6 points
  The thinking is that he was overworked in 2008, with a ton of regular season and postseason innings, causing his drop off in 2009. If he can get back to 2008 form, though, he'll be pitching a ton again.

DamKnights

• Joe Mauer, C - 9 points
  His huge leap forward in power numbers in 2009 makes Mauer a guy to consider late in the first round of a standard draft. The only concern is how much all these catching games are going to affect his offense.
• Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B - 6 points
  He's just got the one year under his belt, and he doesn't look like he'll develop into a premier power source, but he sure can hit. You just hope the Giants can give him some kind of help in that lineup.
• Robinson Cano, 2B - 4 points
  I never know what to make of Cano, with his whole year ups and downs. But he's got the ability to hit well over .300, and he's in a stacked lineup.
• Michael Young, 3B - 5 points
  Young is quietly one of the more consistent hitters in baseball, and there's value in reliably productive players.
• Matt Holliday, OF - 9 points
  His underwhelming performance in Oakland last year is a taste that's hard to get out of my mouth, but his NL career is outstanding. Hitting in a lineup with Pujols doesn't hurt, either.
• Jake Peavy, SP - 6 points
  His health has become a legitimate concern, but when healthy, he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. Word is, he's healthy.
• Matt Garza, SP - 5 points
  If Garza can cut down on the gopher balls and get a little more consistent, he can move up next year's draft board in a hurry. He's got the Ks and the ability to dominate.
• Joe Nathan, RP - 4 points
  Again, I won't penalize the keeper rating because of a subsequent injury.

Mercer AutoWreckers

• Joey Votto, 1B - 7 points
  It looks like Votto is just a really good hitter, but the concern is that he's only got a little more pop than James Loney. He might be a lot better, but emphasis on the might.
  
• Dustin Pedroia, 2B - 8 points
  He's not a superstar, and if you remember, neither Joe nor myself though that he deserved the MVP in 2008. But he's certainly solid, and the Red Sox still boast a potent lineup.
  
• Derek Jeter, SS - 6 points
  He's getting up there, but he's obviously still got the talent to produce at a high level.
  
• Nick Markakis, OF - 5 points
  Markakis might be one of the more over-valued players in fantasy baseball. He's got a solid batting average and decent run production, but doesn't offer exceptional production with regards to power or steals. Doesn't that put him just a tick above Chris Coghlan?
  
• Andre Ethier, OF - 5 points
  In 2008, Ethier showed he can hit for average. In 2009, he showed he can hit for power. Can he combine the two? If so, he's a stud.
  
• Felix Hernandez, SP - 9 points
  King Felix was one of the premier pitching prospects in baseball, and now he's just one of the premier pitchers in baseball.
  
• Roy Halladay, SP - 9 points
  Halladay isn't as old as you think, but he's got plenty of miles on his arm. Still, the move to the NL will give a whole new group of hitters the opportunity to be mystified by him.
  
• Heath Bell, RP - 3 points
  A solid closer, but he's on a bad team. There's talk of him getting traded, but you never know; sometimes those trades turn closers into setup men, and that would obviously kill most of Bell's value.
  

Vandelay Industries

• Lance Berkman, 1B - 3 points
  It was curious that Vandelay traded for Berkman when they had Billy Butler as an option. Berkman's fine, but Butler is a better long-term option.
  
• Aaron Hill, 2B - 5 points
  He probably won't hit 35+ homers ever again, but he's got enough pop at second base to be valuable for a long time.
  
• Evan Longoria, 3B - 9 points
  If he could just move his batting average up a tick, he'd be right there with Alex Rodriguez at the top of the 3B heap.
  
• Ichiro Suzuki, OF - 5 points
  Is the 36-year-old Suzuki taking the standard path of an aging hitter? Lower speed, higher power? Unfortunately, his power won't grow high enough, and if he steals 26 bases again in 2010, his value will take a beating.
  
• Curtis Granderson, OF - 6 points
  I'm less excited about Granderson than other people, but in the Yankees lineup, he's obviously got the potential to explode. Time will tell.
  
• Jon Lester, SP - 8 points
  Eventually traded by Vandelay, Lester is an elite pitcher in the making. Young, lots of strikeouts, good team, he's a quality #1 for most teams.
  
• Adam Wainwright, SP - 8 points
  Part of the reason Vandelay could afford to trade Lester is he's actually got 2-3 aces, with Wainwright competing for the NL Cy Young last year. He's just a tick below Lester, and he's still plenty young.
  
• Yovani Gallardo, SP - 7 points
  One of the more exciting pitching prospects out there, many experts see Gallardo taking a Felix-like step forward this year. If he does, look out.
  

Stewies SexyParties

• Chase Utley, 2B - 10 points
  The best second baseman, bar none. Kinsler looked like he'd challenge, but Utley remains the best all-around option.
  
• Aramis Ramirez, 3B - 5 points
  Though he's had trouble staying healthy most of his career, he's been productive when he's been on the field. And surprisingly, he's still just 31 years old.
  
• Hanley Ramirez, SS - 10 points
  Worth slightly more than Freddie Sanchez these days.
  
• Ryan Braun, OF - 10 points
  The best waiver pickup in league history, Braun has continued to develop into one of the elite fantasy players at any position. A very worthy top five pick.
  
• Andrew McCutchen, OF - 6 points
  McCutchen spells his last name wrong, but other than that, he's got a lot going for him. His power/speed potential makes him particularly interesting.
  
• Jason Bay, OF - 6 points
  You wonder what the move to a pitcher's park in the National League will do for his production, but he should still be keeper-worthy.
  
• Cliff Lee, SP - 7 points
  At some point, I'll have to start believing in Cliff Lee. That point is now.
  
• Chris Carpenter, SP - 6 points
  Carpenter is always an injury concern, and he turns 35 in April. But when healthy, he's on the same level as the very best pitchers. It's a risk/reward type deal.
  

Huber Heights Heroes

• Mark Teixeira, 1B - 10 points
  Not a perfect fit for the Heroes with his ~.300 average, but value-wise, he's as good as first base gets outside of Pujols.
  
• Ryan Howard, 1B - 9 points
  The poster boy for the Heroes' agenda, Howard is a machine when it comes to power and runs.
  
• Mark Reynolds, 3B - 8 points
  Again, the batting average is of concern, but he was so good by the end of last year that you can't really fault him for that any more than you can fault Teixeira for not stealing bases.
  
• Jacoby Ellsbury, OF - 8 points
  Might be overvalued right now, as it doesn't look like he'll develop much power. He's not as good as Carl Crawford, but he's getting drafted around there. I'll value him the way I see him.
  
• Adam Dunn, OF - 4 points
  Straight power broker, and I'm glad he's on the Nationals. It gives my local team a little something to cheer for.
  
• Johan Santana, SP - 7 points
  Santana is coming off of his first serious injury, but we all expect him to be dominant once again. Still, you have to account for the possibility that it'll take some time for him to recapture his magic.
  
• Matt Cain, SP - 7 points
  Cain finally broke through and posted a nice amount of wins last year, and if he can keep that up along with his averages and strikeouts, he'll be the next Josh Beckett.
  
• Wandy Rodriguez, SP - 6 points
  All of his numbers are headed in the right direction. Another year of that, and he'll really catch some people's eyes.
  

Akron Pronks

• Victor Martinez, C - 7 points
  Martinez really thrived after his trade to Boston, and a whole season of that production has fantasy owners salivating. Wipe your mouth, though, folks. He's still a good deal behind Mauer.
  
• Kendry Morales, 1B - 6 points
  Morales had a breakout season, posting very good numbers across the board. You worry about a letdown after that kind of explosion, but hitters are generally able to keep pace.
  
• Brian Roberts, 2B - 7 points
  His spring training injury is a concern. There's no "but" after that. It's a concern.
  
• Kevin Youkilis, 3B - 6 points
  It's probably time to accept that Youkilis isn't getting any better. He's a .300-.320 hitter with solid power and run production, but he won't be jacking 40 homers ever.
  
• Jayson Werth, OF - 7 points
  Werth was kind of a shocker in 2009, in that he had bounced around for five years, then followed up his breakout 2008 with an explosive 2009. His production is actually pretty similar to Mark Reynolds.
  
• Shin-Soo Choo, OF - 6 points
  His numbers might startle you, but Choo was an across-the-board performer last season. If the rest of the Indians lineup can provide a little pop, he could be Beltran-esque.
  
• Tim Lincecum, SP - 10 points
  Come on, don't make me say it.
  
• Jonathan Broxton, RP - 5 points
  Probably the strongest closer option, with his torrid strikeout rate and his favorable situation. If he gets 7 wins again, though, I'll punch Joe Mandi.
  

Riders of Rohan

• Miguel Cabrera, 1B - 10 points
  His level of commitment seems to be questionable, but his production is steady and spectacular.
  
• Prince Fielder, 1B - 9 points
  I'd be a little surprised to see him hit .300, but the power numbers are impossible to ignore. He also played in all 162 Brewers games last year.
  
• Ian Kinsler, 2B - 8 points
  Injuries and a weak batting average have bumped Kinsler out of the first round in most mocks, but he's still a potentially explosive player. Don't give him a bonus for playing second base, though; the position is stronger now than it's been in years.
  
• Jimmy Rollins, SS - 8 points
  Rollins was the other side of the aforementioned Lester trade. Apparently Rollins had one of the most noticeably unlucky BABIPs in baseball last year, so his .250 average was likely an anomaly. Look for closer to .275 in 2010, with plenty of runs and steals.
  
• Matt Kemp, OF - 10 points
  Kemp vaulted himself into the first round of most drafts with a great power/speed combo performance. If he gets moved into a more favorable lineup spot next year (he had 350 ABs in the 6-8 slots), his run production could put him into top three discussions.
  
• Carlos Lee, OF - 4 points
  Lee's hitting is still there, but his baserunning seems to be deteriorating, both in the forms of steals and runs. A reversal of fortune isn't impossible, but projecting more than 80 runs seems silly.
  
• Zack Greinke, SP - 9 points
  The AL Cy Young overcame confidence issues to have one of the best seasons by a pitcher this decade. Who knew that a guy could have a 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 242 strikeouts and still be uncomfortable. Chip up, brother. You're the man.
  
• Clayton Kershaw, SP - 7 points
  Kershaw managed just 8 wins last season despite great numbers, owing partly due to the fact that he went seven or more innings in just 8 of his 30 starts. If he can get deeper into games, even if it sacrifices some of his strikeouts, he can be a superstar.
  

Feisty Mosquitoes

• Justin Morneau, 1B - 7 points
  Morneau seems to have trouble putting together both power and batting average in the same season. In fact, the only time he's ever combined a .275+ average with 25+ home runs was his MVP 2006 season. If he matches them up again, another MVP might be in the works.
  
• Brandon Phillips, 2B - 7 points
  Phillips has quietly had three straight 20/20 seasons, and last year he added in a career 98 RBI. Cincinnati may not be a hitter's paradise, but I can see Phillips having another very good season.
  
• Ryan Zimmerman, 3B - 8 points
  Zimmerman had a completely predictable breakout in 2009, and if there's any development at all by the lineup around him, he could be in line for 120 runs and 120 RBI.
  
• Troy Tulowitzki, SS - 10 points
  Everything bounced back about Tulowitzki in 2009, and he's now going in the first round of many drafts. If he can reproduce his numbers from last year, he'll be well worth the investment.
  
• Carl Crawford, OF - 9 points
  Mark it down, 2009 was just another great year by Carl Crawford. Mark it down. I'll wait.
  
• Justin Upton, OF - 7 points
  Upton is probably the sexiest pick in most fantasy baseball drafts this year, as just about everyone expects him to develop into an elite player. Just go compare his numbers to Shin-Soo Choo, though, and you'll see that the expert community is wrong about one of them; they're either too excited about Upton, or not excited enough about Choo.
  
• Adam Lind, OF - 5 points
  Hopefully Lind is the next Shawn Green, and not the next Pat Burrell. Either is possible, though.
  
• CC Sabathia, SP - 9 points
  While New York didn't see nearly as dominant a CC as Milwaukee did, they got one of the best pitchers in the junior circuit. Additionally, his performance was right in line with his career numbers, so you can justifiably expect similar numbers in 2010.
  

Totals (in order)

1. Riders of Rohan - 65 points
   Makes sense, though, right? I'm the one doing the rankings, so I'm inevitably going to like my guys a little bit more. Still, I think any reviewer would put my squad in the top 3 or 4.
2. Feisty Mosquitoes - 62 points
   Last year's champion still has a damn good team.
3. Stewies SexyParties - 60 points
   All that top-end talent will keep Stewie competitive for a long time.
4. Huber Heights Heroes - 59 points
   It's possible that on a functional level, the Heroes would be number one, since the points they "lose" based on their players' low batting averages are less meaningful than they would be to other teams.
5. Akron Pronks - 54 points
   He's got Lincecum and a bunch of guys at 6 or 7. The math makes sense.
6. Mercer AutoWreckers - 52 points
   Slowly but surely, the AutoWreckers are undoing the damage of some of their more tragic trades.
7. Vandelay Industries - 51 points
   With solid keepers and a good draft position, Vandelay put themselves in a position to compete.
8. The Usual Suspects - 50 points
   Naturally, the Suspects' draft looks nothing like a regular draft. To their credit, it's top-heavy, and they maintained a solid keeper list.
   
9. Cleveland Enforcers - 49 points
   The Enforcers' list would've rated in the top three last year. It's a risk/reward list, with the most potential for a rebound in value next season.
10. DamKnights - 48 points
    One thing you can be sure of, with the DamKnights' keepers, they're going to hit .300.
11. Those Guys - 45 points
    Though their keepers rank fairly low, there's enough potential and talent here to field a solid team...in 2011. They culled most of their draft to put together a solid keeper list.
12. Dunedain Rangers - 39 points
    Sort of the opposite of Those Guys, they traded their top two pitchers in the middle of 2009 for extra 1st and 2nd picks in 2010. They even re-acquired Dan Haren at a slight discount. Could be one of the big movers for next year's list.
    

2009 MLB Playoff Picks

We here at Joe and Joe Sports are happy to give you our predictions for the MLB playoffs. Below are our picks for this October, along with one special guest all the way at the bottom.

---

NICK ENGLE

Joe and Joe Sports - Contributor

Division Series
Yankees/Twins - Yankees

Angels/Red Sox - Angels

Phillies/Rockies - Rockies

Dodgers/Cardinals - Cardinals

League Championship Series

Yankees/Angels - Yankees

Cardinals/Rockies - Cardinals

World Series

Yankees/Cardinals - Cardinals

---

CHIP HART
Joe and Joe Sports - Writer

Division Series
Yankees/Twins - Yankees
Angels/Red Sox - Angels
Phillies/Rockies - Phillies
Dodgers/Cardinals - Cardinals

League Championship Series

Phillies/Cardinals - Cardinals
Yankees/Angels - Yankees

World Series

Yankees/Cardinals - Cardinals

---

JOE MANDI
Joe and Joe Sports - Writer, Radio Host

Division Series
Yankees/Twins - Yankees
Angels/Red Sox - Angels
Phillies/Rockies - Rockies
Dodgers/Cardinals - Cardinals

League Championship Series
Yankees/Angels - Angels
Cardinals/Rockies - Cardinals

World Series
Angels/Cardinals - Angels

---

EDWARD MATTINGLY
Joe and Joe Sports - Contributor

Division Series
Yankees/Twins - Twins
Angels/Red Sox - Red Sox
Phillies/Rockies - Phillies
Dodgers/Cardinals - Cardinals

League Championship Series
Twins/Red Sox - Twins
Phillies/Cardinals - Cardinals

World Series
Twins/Cardinals - Twins

---

JOE MATTINGLY
Joe and Joe Sports - Editor, Writer, Radio Host

Division Series

Yankees/Twins - Yankees
Angels/Red Sox - Red Sox
Phillies/Rockies - Phillies
Dodgers/Cardinals - Cardinals

League Championship Series

Yankees/Red Sox - Yankees

Phillies/Cardinals - Phillies

World Series

Yankees/Phillies - Yankees

---

MICHAEL MATTINGLY

Joe and Joe Sports - Writer

Division Series

Yankees/Twins - Yankees
Angels/Red Sox - Red Sox

Phillies/Rockies - Phillies
Dodgers/Cardinals - Dodgers

League Championship Series
Yankees/Red Sox - Red Sox
Dodgers/Phillies - Dodgers

World Series
Red Sox/Dodgers - Red Sox

---

And now for our special guest...

ALEX HARDIN
Beltway Braves - Writer, Editor

Division Series
Rockies in 4 - Brad Lidge blows 3 saves, 2 dudes, Colorado advances
Cardinals in 3 - Mannywood goes soft, Cards break out brooms
Red Sox in 4 - Different year, same story, Angels ousted by Nation
Twins in 5 - The dream stays alive, A-Rod goes 0-fer, Jeter demands trade

League Championship Series
Cardinals over Rockies in 6 - Carpenter and Wainwright own the Rocks, go to WS
Red Sox over Twins in 7 - The steam runs out, Twinkies fall at Fenway

World Series
Red Sox over Cardinals in 7 - Lester beats Carp, Red Sox win another title

Stephen Strasburg Still Without Contract

Stephen Strasburg, the pitching phenom from San Diego State, remains unsigned with just a few days left until the deadline. This was expected. The Nationals did not want a long negotiation to drive the price up but we are now entering crunch time. It is in Strasburg’s best interest to sign and it is in the National’s best interest to sign Strasburg. The X-Factor is agent Scott Boras.

Why Should Strasburg Sign? Strasburg is a flamethrower. And flamethrowers burn out. It’s in the definition, somewhere towards the back I think. He could go back to school or play independent ball. This is where I tend to get lost in the math. How could it make more financial sense to not sign that first contract and get the clock ticking so that you can hit free agency for the real pay day? Mark Prior was huge coming out of school and still got around a $10 million contract. Is Strasburg viewed as being five times as valuable as Prior was then? Nope. And at the time Prior was praised because his delivery would not lead to arm problems. Wrong, but it led to how he was valued at the time. I have not heard the same sentiment about Strasburg. He will probably be offered around $15-$20 million, doubling up Prior, and he should take it.

Why the Should the Nationals Sign Strasburg? Because he is supposed to be the best? The Nationals knew what Strasburg/Boras would be looking for in terms of a contract when they drafted him. It would have been by no means the first time that the best player in the draft would be passed over for a more affordable option. But they took him so they should probably finish it. Generally speaking, the Nationals don’t give their fans a whole lot to come out to the park to see. The Dmitri Young Renaissance in 2007 was nice, but Strasburg could be an even bigger deal in DC (hard to imagine). Speaking of Young, he was given a 2 year $10M extension for his work in 2007 so the Nats aren’t that tight on money.

What is Boras up to? Boras is trying to get Strasburg the most money he can. This is what Strasburg is paying Boras to do, so that checks out. The problem is that I don’t see how Strasburg is going to make more money in next year’s draft. So he should sign now. Obviously the Nationals want to sign him but know that Strasburg does too. However, if Strasburg were not to sign and re-enter the draft, that scenario would help Boras in his negotiations with future top rated college and high school prospects. The team will know that Boras is willing to let his client go unsigned. He may do that if he feels the memory of Philadelphia’s selection of JD Drew is fading. JD Drew signed a contract with the Dodgers (opting out two years into it) and the Red Sox that were both worth more than $10M per season. He would have been able to get one more of those if he had a year earlier. Once again, we see that skipping a year does not pay.

What should the Nationals do once if they Sign Strasburg? They probably shouldn’t let him pitch this year, at least for the big league team. However, next year if he looks good in spring training, I’d bring him up. I’m just never sure how many bullets a guy that throws that hard has, so they might as well be shot at the big league level. It will also boost attendance significantly when he does pitch. Now all the Nats need to do is get the first pick again and draft/sign Bryce Harper, a likely Scott Boras client…

A Comparison of Two Pitchers

The following are the stats from the rookie years of two starting pitchers:

Pitcher A: 19GS, 6-6, 116.2 IP, 147K, 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Pitcher B: 24GS, 7-5, 146.1 IP, 150K, 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Their records are essentially a wash. The rest of the stats lay in the favor of Pitcher A. Pitcher B had a K rate of 9.22/9IP, while Pitcher A had a K/9 rate of 11.34. Pitcher A had the lower ERA and WHIP, although a 4.00 and sub-1.30 WHIP for a rookie pitcher is certainly nothing to scoff at. But how did these two pitchers follow-up their rookie seasons?

Pitcher A: 30GS, 18-6, 211.1 IP, 245K, 2.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Pitcher B: 33GS, 18-5, 227.0 IP, 265K, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Both pitchers clearly had no trouble. Both posted impressive numbers across the board. Their records are again a wash and so is the K/9 rate with Pitcher B posting a slightly better rate than Pitcher A in their sophomore efforts (10.51 vs. 10.44). Pitcher A again led in terms of ERA and WHIP. Clearly fantasy owners and MLB general managers would be willing to plug either of these two youngsters in at the top of their rotation.

Each pitcher saw their innings increase significantly. Pitcher A had threw an additional 95 innings and Pitcher B threw an extra 81 innings. How will these two guys do from here on out? We will have to wait and see how Pitcher B fares in his effort to defend his NL Cy Young Award. The Giants placed a pretty heavy work load on Tim Lincecum as they (successfully) attempted to push Lincey to the top of Cy Young ballots and bring San Francisco a bright spot to their otherwise dim season. There have always been questions of Lincecum's ability to hold up over the long haul as a starting pitcher due to his small frame and mechanics. That said he has no injury history and getting through the 2009 season would go a long way in putting these fears to rest. How he will do from here on out is anybody's guess. Luckily we have some prior evidence to suggest how Lincecum's trajectory may turn out.

What about Pitcher A? The one that seemed to match or slightly outperform Lincecum over the course his first two seasons? No pitcher's future seemed quite so bright after Mark Prior completed his 2003 season especially when you consider his post all-star figures from that year (10-1, 1.52 ERA). That drove many average Joes to grab him early in 2004 keeper leagues. Since 2003 Prior has won a total of just 18 games. Of course when he came up people spoke about how he was built to be a starting pitcher (he has 6 inches and 55 pounds on Lincecum). That didn't really work out... I'm not saying that Lincecum will definitely not hold up. People said the same things about Pedro and he's had an okay career. But in a fantasy keeper league selling high may not be the worst idea. The worst idea would be to take Greg Maddux with the first pick. That guy isn't even playing next year.

Carlos Marmol and the Middle Reliever's Fantasy Value

Last year Carlos Marmol established himself as one of the elite middle relievers in the league; posting excellent strikeout rate and ratios. But how valuable is such a player? Pitchers that are drafted tend to be starters which can rack up wins or closer which obviously grab the saves. But what about the middle ground?

A great middle reliever can lower your team's ERA and WHIP. Last year Marmol had an ERA of 1.43 over 69.1 innings. That is about a third of what a very solid starting pitcher will have. These innings will have an effect on your bottom line. It is sometimes difficult to imagine a middle reliever having significant value over the course of the season but there will be times when after a night of baseball one of your starting pitchers will have had a less than stellar game and a solid two innings in relief can help bring all of your final numbers for the night back to respectability.

Additionally Marmol had 96 strikeouts last season or 8 less than Chien-Ming Wang (in 130 less innings). A hard throwing reliever can help to balance out a crafty starter. These solid arms will get brought into close games late leading to more wins than the typical reliever and are the first in line for save opportunity if something were to happen to the closer. The closer situation is typically good to look at when valuing middle relievers. Kerry Wood's injury history makes Marmol a bit more valuable than if he were setting up Nathan. That being said, value picks are what win fantasy leagues. So while I think Marmol is very good pitcher, top- and middle-tier closers should go first. Marmol's value comes from being a contributor on your team that got taken late in a draft and offers mid-draft value.

Inconsistency is an issue with all relievers and pitching in general. Linebrink strung together three very good seasons but has been somewhat mediocre in recent years. Brad Lidge went from being a dominant force to not being able to hold off Dan Wheeler for the closer's job in just a couple of years. Spending a high draft pick on a player that could be relegated to mop-up duty after a bad month is a risky proposition.

My team includes the likes of the suddenly questionable Francisco Rodriguez, the always injury-prone Huston Street, and the incredibly hittable Jose Valverde. So, I'm glad I took Marmol in the 12th round of my draft, as he has already racked up 17 strikeouts in 12.1 innings. But could this end up blowing up in my face?

No, it can't. Did you even read the post?