The Baltimore Orioles are my favorite baseball team. For a long time, they were my favorite team in all of sports, as baseball was my favorite sport. Over the past ten years or so, hockey and the Washington Capitals have supplanted baseball and the Orioles, respectively, but both sit right there at number two. As a result, I have a pretty long memory of Orioles players, and opinions on most of them.
Historically, when I've debated the "best XYZ ever," the standard has been to span all of history in order to find potential selections. Best home run hitter? Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron were always in the mix. Best basketball center? Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain find their ways into most lists. And deservedly so; all of those players had remarkable careers.
The thing is, I never saw them play. So I can reflect on their statistics and read articles about them and hear anecdotes about how dominant they were, but those aren't my stories. I have no firsthand experience with their play. And the reality is, sports are all about our personal connections to the games. I can talk all day and night about how good Walter Payton and Bobby Hull were, but there won't be any mustard behind it. Just as, if my nephew ever tries to talk about Frank Thomas or Larry Bird, there won't be any personal nature to it.
Therefore, what I like doing is proposing not to talk about the greatest XYZ of all-time, but to talk about the greatest XYZ of MY time. So, in a sort of tandem effort to go along with my recent podcast about the Orioles in 2016, I'm going to present for you the greatest Orioles team of my time, position-by-position. Well, most positions. I'm not going to try to rack my brain for the best long reliever of the past 30 years...even though it's obviously Rodrigo Lopez.
Here we go.
Catcher - Chris Hoiles
Hoiles was a middle-of-the-lineup masher for some good teams and some bad teams, all of them Orioles teams. He spent his entire ten-year career in Baltimore, and his 162-game average was 27 homers and 81 RBI. While he wasn't exceptional, he was a steady force for the Orioles for years and years.
First Base - Chris Davis
This choice was between Davis and Rafael Palmeiro. I went with Davis because, while Palmeiro was solid and productive, he was never the most important part of the team. Since 2012, Davis' bat has been crucial to the team's vault back into competitiveness. And while the metrics don't seem to bear it out, Davis' defense at first base has been surprisingly solid.
Second Base - Brian Roberts
I started coming up with this list of players while I was without Internet access for a week (yes, it was utterly miserable). After coming up with a starter list, I spoke with some friends and checked online to see who I was forgetting, and Roberts was the first of those guys. He's the Orioles' all-time leader in games played at second base, and he was a fixture at the top of Baltimore's lineup for the better part a decade. He might be an all-time Oriole; he's definitely the best 2B of my time.
Third Base - Melvin Mora
There's a case to be made for Manny Machado, even this early in his career, but as of today, Melvin Mora is my pick. He came over from the Mets in the Mike Bordick trade, and started out a super-utility player. After a couple years of filling in as needed, Mora developed into Mr. Reliable for the O's at third. He was a steady bat, contributing heavily to some of those competitive-but-still-not-very-good teams in the mid-2000s.
Shortstop - Cal Ripken, Jr.
I will not explain this. If you don't know why, I can't help you.
Left Field - Brady Anderson
Brady Anderson was a big part of the Orioles before I ever started paying attention to statistics, so it was kind of interesting to go back and look at his actual performance. One conspicuous aspect of Anderson's play is that he had a career on-base-percentage of .362. That's really, really good.
We'll always remember him as one of the more obvious beneficiaries of performance-enhancers (his 50 HR in 1996 were symptomatic of a culture of abuse), but the truth is that he was just a really great player for the Orioles. The only nuance was whether to pick him in left field or center field; I chose left field because center field had a better alternative.
Center Field - Adam Jones
The O's pulled off a pretty big theft in acquiring Jones, Chris Tillman, and George Sherrill for Erik Bedard in 2008. Bedard was a very good pitcher at the time (see below), but Jones and Tillman were both highly-touted prospects, and Sherrill was a serviceable bullpen arm. While Tillman's progress has been slow, Jones almost immediately became central to the Orioles' lineup. Jones's free-swinging ways are still a bit frustrating to watch, but his performance over the years more than makes up for the depressed on-base numbers.
Right Field - Nick Markakis
Markakis is a perfect example of a guy who shines on this type of list, but would never get consideration on an all-time list. He's a very good fielder and a high on-base guy, which slotted him in the leadoff spot for a good chunk of his time in Baltimore. He never produced at a high enough level to merit serious consideration for end-of-season awards, or even really as an All-Star, but he's one of the locals' favorites, and probably will be for years to come.
Starting Pitcher 1 - Mike Mussina
Starting Pitcher 2 - Erik Bedard
Starting Pitcher 3 - Wei-Yin Chen
Starting Pitcher 4 - Sidney Ponson
Starting Pitcher 5 - Scott Erickson
I sort of knew this before I started this exercise, but the Orioles' pitching has been pretty bad for a long time. Looking at that list up there, you're not finding many happy tales. Mussina is obviously the exception, a borderline Hall-of-Famer who won a ton of games for the Orioles and Yankees. After him, though, it gets pretty slim.
Bedard was solid for three years and spectacular for one. Chen was the most reliable pitcher on two playoff teams, so he gets that #3 nod. And Ponson and Erickson were both unexciting workhorses, the kind of pitcher the Orioles seem to target (welcome to the team, Yovani Gallardo!). If you want to talk about the Orioles, there's no need to mention much about the starting pitching.
Right-handed Reliever - Darren O'Day
Left-handed Reliever - B.J. Ryan
Closer - Gregg Olson
Despite their troubles in the starting rotation, the Orioles have actually had a fair share of dominant relievers. O'Day has had an ERA under 2.00 with the O's, with over a strikeout per inning. B.J. Ryan boasted incredible strikeout rates during his time with the O's. And Gregg Olson is the team's all-time leader in saves with 160. Perhaps that's why the O's have mostly invested in innings-eaters for their rotation; just get to the seventh and we're in good shape.
The Orioles of my lifetime don't boast many great players. Ripken was obviously huge, and Mussina could get some HOF votes (though I doubt enough to get in). But it's no surprise that they've had to scrap and claw for their few playoff opportunities in recent years. Hopefully Machado is ushering in a new era of competition for the O's...and let's keep snagging those ace relievers.
Showing posts with label Baltimore Orioles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baltimore Orioles. Show all posts
Sunday, March 20, 2016
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
Top Five 2015 Baseball/Fantasy Baseball Stories So Far
Baseball presents a wide variety of surprises every year; some good, some bad. But there are some stories that just blow you away, and we've had our share in the short season so far. Because baseball goes along so well with its fantasy counterpart (and because I can't help but look at every baseball story within a fantasy context), I'll include a little fantasy spin here as well, when applicable.
1. Are the Nationals actually this bad?
I mean, obviously they're not this bad. This pace would be unsustainable for a team that didn't have top-to-bottom the best rotation in baseball. But the Nationals are a team that a lot of people, including ESPN and myself, picked to win the World Series. After tonight's come-from-behind victory over the Braves, they're 8-13, tied for last in the NL East.
I still expect their rotation to bear out and to at least notch 80-85 wins, but this early stretch has shown just how foolish it was to trade Tyler Clippard. He may not be lighting it up for the A's, but the bullpen depth was already suspect, and Yunel Escobar is utterly replaceable.
Anybody still got Rafael Soriano's phone number?
2. Dee Gordon is teaching us all an important lesson.
All throughout the preseason, you couldn't take two steps without hearing someone talk about how Dee Gordon's production was incredible for a few weeks early in the season, and then just solid the rest of the way. Most fantasy players took that to mean that his production during those "down" months was the correct representation of his skillset. A few people (like myself) saw that short explosion and had dreams of Dee Gordon shaped sugarplums dancing in their heads.
But the truth is that Gordon, like every other baseball player, can't be identified as only his hills or only his valleys. He's all of them, the whole topography of his production. So while he's blasting off right now (#14 rated player in Yahoo), his final statistics for the season will probably be somewhere around where they were last year. And that works fine for me, as a Gordon owner and someone who's always hurting for steals.
3. Ace relievers always look better early in the season than they ought to.
Now, don't take this as an invitation to try to lowball me on Wade Davis, who I own in a couple of leagues. But when you look at the top rated pitchers in Yahoo (and presumably other systems), right now, way too many of them are highly productive relievers. Davis, Andrew Miller, David Robertson, Jeurys Familia, Joakim Soria, Adam Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Boxberger, and Yimi Garcia are all rated among the top 25 pitchers. That's almost 40% of the top end.
The imbalance is inherent with the system. We want relievers to be appropriately rated at the end of the season, so we want a certain number of saves out of our relief pitchers. That brings guys like Familia and Soria to the top. Wins are one of the hardest stats to accumulate, so the guys who have lucked into a couple of wins early look (statistically) like dominant starting pitchers, albeit with limited innings.
While certain guys like Davis, Miller, Robertson, and Chapman have a history of dominance, none of them should be traded for as if they're a top 15-20 pitcher.
4. Remember when we all thought the A's were crazy for trading Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie?
We were right.
5. The Orioles and White Sox are going to play in front of absolutely nobody today.
There's not any sort of fantasy spin for this story, but it's insane. Baltimore is in such a state of disarray that the audience can't be trusted to collect in close quarters and not erupt into anarchy. I'm hopeful that things will turn for the better and soon, but in the meantime, best wishes to the Orioles and to all Baltimoreans.
1. Are the Nationals actually this bad?
I mean, obviously they're not this bad. This pace would be unsustainable for a team that didn't have top-to-bottom the best rotation in baseball. But the Nationals are a team that a lot of people, including ESPN and myself, picked to win the World Series. After tonight's come-from-behind victory over the Braves, they're 8-13, tied for last in the NL East.
I still expect their rotation to bear out and to at least notch 80-85 wins, but this early stretch has shown just how foolish it was to trade Tyler Clippard. He may not be lighting it up for the A's, but the bullpen depth was already suspect, and Yunel Escobar is utterly replaceable.
Anybody still got Rafael Soriano's phone number?
2. Dee Gordon is teaching us all an important lesson.
All throughout the preseason, you couldn't take two steps without hearing someone talk about how Dee Gordon's production was incredible for a few weeks early in the season, and then just solid the rest of the way. Most fantasy players took that to mean that his production during those "down" months was the correct representation of his skillset. A few people (like myself) saw that short explosion and had dreams of Dee Gordon shaped sugarplums dancing in their heads.
But the truth is that Gordon, like every other baseball player, can't be identified as only his hills or only his valleys. He's all of them, the whole topography of his production. So while he's blasting off right now (#14 rated player in Yahoo), his final statistics for the season will probably be somewhere around where they were last year. And that works fine for me, as a Gordon owner and someone who's always hurting for steals.
3. Ace relievers always look better early in the season than they ought to.
Now, don't take this as an invitation to try to lowball me on Wade Davis, who I own in a couple of leagues. But when you look at the top rated pitchers in Yahoo (and presumably other systems), right now, way too many of them are highly productive relievers. Davis, Andrew Miller, David Robertson, Jeurys Familia, Joakim Soria, Adam Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Boxberger, and Yimi Garcia are all rated among the top 25 pitchers. That's almost 40% of the top end.
The imbalance is inherent with the system. We want relievers to be appropriately rated at the end of the season, so we want a certain number of saves out of our relief pitchers. That brings guys like Familia and Soria to the top. Wins are one of the hardest stats to accumulate, so the guys who have lucked into a couple of wins early look (statistically) like dominant starting pitchers, albeit with limited innings.
While certain guys like Davis, Miller, Robertson, and Chapman have a history of dominance, none of them should be traded for as if they're a top 15-20 pitcher.
4. Remember when we all thought the A's were crazy for trading Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie?
We were right.
5. The Orioles and White Sox are going to play in front of absolutely nobody today.
There's not any sort of fantasy spin for this story, but it's insane. Baltimore is in such a state of disarray that the audience can't be trusted to collect in close quarters and not erupt into anarchy. I'm hopeful that things will turn for the better and soon, but in the meantime, best wishes to the Orioles and to all Baltimoreans.
Friday, March 6, 2015
2015 Fantasy Baseball - First Round Busts and Busters
Every year, fantasy baseball sees several new faces at the top of drafts, and every year a couple of last year's heroes turn into this year's zeroes. It's usually difficult to predict this sort of thing, but that's absolutely not my concern. I'm going to make some wild predictions here (potentially more bold than my "bold" predictions) about this year's first round picks, and about some players who aren't in the top two rounds this year, but I foresee making the jump.
First, let's look at who actually is a first-round pick, according to Yahoo:
Yahoo's Top Twelve Players, According to O-Rank
1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
3. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
Barring massive injury, I think these guys are safe bets to stick around at least a few years. Transcendent talents.
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers
Cabrera is interesting, because I really think he's going to do well this year, but it's very likely that he loses 3B going into next year. Probably still a first-round pick, though. He's the best hitter the league has seen since Manny Ramirez.
5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
6. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
7. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
8. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
I expect all four of these guys to remain in the first or early second rounds, depending on their relative performances and health. Goldschmidt, Stanton, and Abreu are all high end power talent, and even though people still mistrust Gomez, he's been a power-speed guy for years now. It's time to buy in.
9. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
Jones is a tough nut to crack. In a full season, he's almost a lock for .280-90-30-90. His speed is fading, and his plate discipline is zero (he walked just 19 times last year), but consistent power, average, and run production will always have value. I think he'll drop to the second round next year, but no farther than around 18th.
10. Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays
I hate thinking of Jose Bautista as "old" since he's two-and-a-half months younger than me, but the reality is that 34 is pretty old in baseball (maybe this is why it always seems to be sports fans who have midlife crises). If he stays healthy, he's probably got another year or two of top tier production, but his batting average dips in 2012 and 2013 give me pause.
11. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
I don't trust Rizzo, but he's got fair pedigree. I expect him to regress a little, but still be in the ballpark of .270 and 30 HR, and at his age, that'll keep people buying. I predict other people will have him in the first round again next year, and I predict I still won't.
12. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays
Encarnacion is like his teammate Bautista in a lot of ways. They both had slow starts to their careers, and they both appear to be top-level mashers with modest batting averages. I just don't trust Encarnacion. He has the smell of Adam Dunn to me, and that means while I expect he'll still hit with power, his dropoff in other categories will be precipitous. With a history of back ailments, I think there's a reasonable chance that Edwin could slip again this year, down to a .240-.260 hitting 1B with very good pop. On your draft boards, that's somewhere between David Ortiz (48) and Chris Carter (96).
My bets for dropping out of Yahoo's top round in 2016 are #9 Adam Jones, #10 Jose Bautista, and #12 Edwin Encarnacion. The rest I expect to stick around, again, barring massive injury.
Now for the more fun part: who's taking their spots? Since I have three guys dropping from the first round, I'm going to give you three guys to take their places. And to maximize the fun(/crazy) aspect, I'll only pick people outside of the top 25.
Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers (#36)
It's extremely difficult for a starting pitcher to get into the first round of a fantasy draft. The fact that Kershaw has been securely in the first round for multiple years is pretty remarkable. I think Darvish has that kind of next-level talent. His strikeout rate is fantastic, a must-have for a first round pitcher. While last season was cut short for him because of elbow inflammation, I think he's closer to his 2013 performance at his core. That's 2.83/1.07/.194 batting-average-against, for those of you unwilling to Google the man.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (#59)
I've never been totally wild about Joey Votto. I'm still not all the way on board with drafting guys who don't really have any speed upside; I always seem to have trouble finding steals. But in today's fantasy baseball world, batting average and run production puts you near the top of the draft. Votto has never hit lower than .297 in any season in which he played at least 100 games, and he still hits in Cincinnati, one of the better hitting ballparks out there. He may suffer from "broken heart syndrome," where people discount him because they got burned drafting him the past couple years, but I think a bounce-back is very possible, and that would put him right in the mix for the first round.
Not crazy enough for you? Alright, well how about...
Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles (#123)
If I'm being honest, I wouldn't bet much money on Machado actually breaking into the top 12 of Yahoo's O-Rank next season. That said, I think there's a ton of room for improvement here, and, just as importantly, I think the fantasy community is ready to believe in him. Machado was a top-tier prospect who's acquitted himself well in the major leagues. He's still just 22, which means there's plenty of time for him to evolve into the type of player he was projected to be. He's never been much of a speedster, but with a reasonable level of improvement, I don't think it's out of the question to see him take a 2006-Matt-Holliday-sized leap forward. A line of .310/100/30/100 is feasible, and at third base, that's first round magic.
So there you have it, my take on the first round this year and next. Stay tuned this season to see how right I was (or on the off chance I was slightly wrong, to harass me for it).
First, let's look at who actually is a first-round pick, according to Yahoo:
Yahoo's Top Twelve Players, According to O-Rank
- Mike Trout, OF, Angels
- Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
- Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
- Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
- Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
- Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
- Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
- Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
- Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays
1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
3. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
Barring massive injury, I think these guys are safe bets to stick around at least a few years. Transcendent talents.
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers
Cabrera is interesting, because I really think he's going to do well this year, but it's very likely that he loses 3B going into next year. Probably still a first-round pick, though. He's the best hitter the league has seen since Manny Ramirez.
5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
6. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
7. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
8. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
I expect all four of these guys to remain in the first or early second rounds, depending on their relative performances and health. Goldschmidt, Stanton, and Abreu are all high end power talent, and even though people still mistrust Gomez, he's been a power-speed guy for years now. It's time to buy in.
9. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
Jones is a tough nut to crack. In a full season, he's almost a lock for .280-90-30-90. His speed is fading, and his plate discipline is zero (he walked just 19 times last year), but consistent power, average, and run production will always have value. I think he'll drop to the second round next year, but no farther than around 18th.
10. Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays
I hate thinking of Jose Bautista as "old" since he's two-and-a-half months younger than me, but the reality is that 34 is pretty old in baseball (maybe this is why it always seems to be sports fans who have midlife crises). If he stays healthy, he's probably got another year or two of top tier production, but his batting average dips in 2012 and 2013 give me pause.
11. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
I don't trust Rizzo, but he's got fair pedigree. I expect him to regress a little, but still be in the ballpark of .270 and 30 HR, and at his age, that'll keep people buying. I predict other people will have him in the first round again next year, and I predict I still won't.
12. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays
Encarnacion is like his teammate Bautista in a lot of ways. They both had slow starts to their careers, and they both appear to be top-level mashers with modest batting averages. I just don't trust Encarnacion. He has the smell of Adam Dunn to me, and that means while I expect he'll still hit with power, his dropoff in other categories will be precipitous. With a history of back ailments, I think there's a reasonable chance that Edwin could slip again this year, down to a .240-.260 hitting 1B with very good pop. On your draft boards, that's somewhere between David Ortiz (48) and Chris Carter (96).
My bets for dropping out of Yahoo's top round in 2016 are #9 Adam Jones, #10 Jose Bautista, and #12 Edwin Encarnacion. The rest I expect to stick around, again, barring massive injury.
Now for the more fun part: who's taking their spots? Since I have three guys dropping from the first round, I'm going to give you three guys to take their places. And to maximize the fun(/crazy) aspect, I'll only pick people outside of the top 25.
Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers (#36)
It's extremely difficult for a starting pitcher to get into the first round of a fantasy draft. The fact that Kershaw has been securely in the first round for multiple years is pretty remarkable. I think Darvish has that kind of next-level talent. His strikeout rate is fantastic, a must-have for a first round pitcher. While last season was cut short for him because of elbow inflammation, I think he's closer to his 2013 performance at his core. That's 2.83/1.07/.194 batting-average-against, for those of you unwilling to Google the man.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (#59)
I've never been totally wild about Joey Votto. I'm still not all the way on board with drafting guys who don't really have any speed upside; I always seem to have trouble finding steals. But in today's fantasy baseball world, batting average and run production puts you near the top of the draft. Votto has never hit lower than .297 in any season in which he played at least 100 games, and he still hits in Cincinnati, one of the better hitting ballparks out there. He may suffer from "broken heart syndrome," where people discount him because they got burned drafting him the past couple years, but I think a bounce-back is very possible, and that would put him right in the mix for the first round.
Not crazy enough for you? Alright, well how about...
Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles (#123)
If I'm being honest, I wouldn't bet much money on Machado actually breaking into the top 12 of Yahoo's O-Rank next season. That said, I think there's a ton of room for improvement here, and, just as importantly, I think the fantasy community is ready to believe in him. Machado was a top-tier prospect who's acquitted himself well in the major leagues. He's still just 22, which means there's plenty of time for him to evolve into the type of player he was projected to be. He's never been much of a speedster, but with a reasonable level of improvement, I don't think it's out of the question to see him take a 2006-Matt-Holliday-sized leap forward. A line of .310/100/30/100 is feasible, and at third base, that's first round magic.
So there you have it, my take on the first round this year and next. Stay tuned this season to see how right I was (or on the off chance I was slightly wrong, to harass me for it).
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Rooting
I'm mostly a Washington sports fan. I root my ass off for the Capitals, I'm lamentably a Redskins fan, and the first sports ticket I ever bought was to a Bullets game. We didn't have a baseball team in the DC area when I was younger, so I took on the Baltimore Orioles, and I was totally stoked for this postseason.
That said, being a fan of my teams has been trying over the years. I became an official baseball fan in 1988, the year the Orioles set the all-time AL record for losing streaks when they opened the season 0-21. The game I went to, they actually won, which I didn't realize was a rarity that season. After the Jeffrey Maier bullcrap in 1997, my O's suffered 14 straight losing seasons. This season has already been a success, but things aren't looking great for a title run.
When the Redskins won the Super Bowl after the 1991 season, I was too young to realize it wasn't the kind of thing that happens all the time. And I don't remember watching any football games in between that Super Bowl and the previous Super Bowl, so obviously I wasn't much into sports. I think I was all about Nintendo at that point in my life (and 90% of all moments in my life since then). Since then, and particularly since Daniel Snyder purchased the team, Washington has been a black hole for football.
As I said, I liked the Bullets a lot when I was younger. I went to a few games, and was stoked when they acquired Chris Webber. I figured the combination of he and Juwan Howard was so successful in college, how could it not bring them deep into the NBA playoffs? Of course, I was wrong, but I've kept tuned in, and I'm hoping to reap the benefits of some solid seasons with John Wall, Bradley Beal, and the lot. I watch almost every NBA draft, even though I don't really know anything about college basketball anymore, just because it's a tightly packed blast of offseason roster updates.
The Capitals were a regular participant in the wide-open NHL playoffs by the time I started paying attention to hockey at all. I remember my friends Mike and Sergio assigning me teams every few days, usually in the form of, "Joe Joe Joe, what happened to your Nordiques last night?" It was enough to encourage me to catch a few games here and there. I watched each game of the Stanley Cup in 1998, which is to say I watched the Caps get pummeled by a team that was insanely, insanely better than them.
I've enjoyed their recent moments of marginal success, but the Caps' limited success seems to have brought every Penguins fan out of the woodwork. I can't wear a Caps shirt or watch a Caps game without some jag off Pens fan making some sideways (or sometimes straight-up-and-down) comment about how the Penguins are so much better. Like I'm unaware of how these teams have performed recently.
Which brings us to the meat of what I actually wanted to talk about in this post. People are fans of teams for a million different reasons. The majority of people just pick their home teams, presumably due to some combination of convenience and inborn patriotism, that desire to be proud of where you're from, and to share that feeling with friends and family. Others choose their favorite teams because of that team's success in their childhood, or a favorite player, or something as simple as an attractive uniform.
Are any of these "wrong" reasons to root for a team? Nope. Are any of these "more right" than others?
Yes.
It is more right to root for your hometown team than another team. Not insofar as you live a better life or you deserve praise, but because you're not abandoning a problem. Enduring the hardships together as a fan base gives you something to talk about with other people from your home town, and a sense of community is a good thing, even if you're a community with an experience mostly riddled with failure.
In my sports-watching adult life, I've endured as much disappointment as a fan of any city's teams, save perhaps Cleveland. While Cleveland has only three professional teams, they manage to pack a lot of despair into those three teams. And if you happen to like the Ohio hockey team (the Columbus Blue Jackets), you're not making up any ground.
Cleveland has sported a poorly run and poorly performing football team in the Browns, and since the mid-90s, the Cleveland Indians have wallowed in and around mediocrity. The Cavaliers have been to the NBA Finals, but The Decision, the departure, and the Heat winning a pair of titles have made that Finals trip ancient history. Cleveland is also noteworthy as the sporting home of "other Joe," my former partner in crime in the radio world. He's a guy who's known my pain for years and years, and while LeBron James' return means he's likely closer to ending his drought, we're mostly in the same boat.
Between Cleveland and Washington, we've got disappointment covered.
So why endure it? Obviously it's easier to pick individual teams with amazing players like the Pittsburgh Penguins or the Green Bay Packers, or a city with gobs of money and history like Boston or Chicago. You've got a better shot at a title, which means you won't have to deal with the shit that everyone else seems to enjoy throwing at people who choose to remain hometown fans. As a Capitals fan, I've not met a single Penguin fan in the DMV who resists the urge to twist the knife. And good luck finding a Cowboys fan in Maryland who doesn't exude glee whenever the Redskins falter.
Which brings us back to the question: why endure such pain? Wouldn't it be easier to just switch over to a better team, or a better city? Wouldn't you feel less disappointment?
Maybe.
But the whole idea of sticking with your team is that one day, it'll be worth it. I've ridden the Bullets/Wizards since I was a little kid. If they're ever able to win the NBA title, I'll celebrate my butt off. If the Caps are ever able to overcome history and raise the Stanley Cup, I can't even begin to imagine the relief and joy I'll feel. We stick with our teams because we have faith and hope that one day, they'll win. And we want to be around for it.
We see all these cities hosting parades and we think, "God, that would be amazing." We watch other teams raise banners and we think, "Someday that'll be us." We see guys like Trent Dilfer and Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady talk about their trips to Disney World, and we think, "There's no reason Robert Griffin or Kirk Cousins couldn't take that trip, right?" Some of it is delusion (the 'Skins may never win another game). Some of it is playing the odds (hockey has a great deal of parity in its playoffs; almost any team has a shot). And some of it is wishful thinking (Kevin Durant hasn't said he wouldn't come to the Wiz). And part of it is simple stubbornness. But at this point, no way am I changing sides.
The O's are still just four wins from the World Series!
That said, being a fan of my teams has been trying over the years. I became an official baseball fan in 1988, the year the Orioles set the all-time AL record for losing streaks when they opened the season 0-21. The game I went to, they actually won, which I didn't realize was a rarity that season. After the Jeffrey Maier bullcrap in 1997, my O's suffered 14 straight losing seasons. This season has already been a success, but things aren't looking great for a title run.
When the Redskins won the Super Bowl after the 1991 season, I was too young to realize it wasn't the kind of thing that happens all the time. And I don't remember watching any football games in between that Super Bowl and the previous Super Bowl, so obviously I wasn't much into sports. I think I was all about Nintendo at that point in my life (and 90% of all moments in my life since then). Since then, and particularly since Daniel Snyder purchased the team, Washington has been a black hole for football.
As I said, I liked the Bullets a lot when I was younger. I went to a few games, and was stoked when they acquired Chris Webber. I figured the combination of he and Juwan Howard was so successful in college, how could it not bring them deep into the NBA playoffs? Of course, I was wrong, but I've kept tuned in, and I'm hoping to reap the benefits of some solid seasons with John Wall, Bradley Beal, and the lot. I watch almost every NBA draft, even though I don't really know anything about college basketball anymore, just because it's a tightly packed blast of offseason roster updates.
The Capitals were a regular participant in the wide-open NHL playoffs by the time I started paying attention to hockey at all. I remember my friends Mike and Sergio assigning me teams every few days, usually in the form of, "Joe Joe Joe, what happened to your Nordiques last night?" It was enough to encourage me to catch a few games here and there. I watched each game of the Stanley Cup in 1998, which is to say I watched the Caps get pummeled by a team that was insanely, insanely better than them.
I've enjoyed their recent moments of marginal success, but the Caps' limited success seems to have brought every Penguins fan out of the woodwork. I can't wear a Caps shirt or watch a Caps game without some jag off Pens fan making some sideways (or sometimes straight-up-and-down) comment about how the Penguins are so much better. Like I'm unaware of how these teams have performed recently.
Which brings us to the meat of what I actually wanted to talk about in this post. People are fans of teams for a million different reasons. The majority of people just pick their home teams, presumably due to some combination of convenience and inborn patriotism, that desire to be proud of where you're from, and to share that feeling with friends and family. Others choose their favorite teams because of that team's success in their childhood, or a favorite player, or something as simple as an attractive uniform.
Are any of these "wrong" reasons to root for a team? Nope. Are any of these "more right" than others?
Yes.
It is more right to root for your hometown team than another team. Not insofar as you live a better life or you deserve praise, but because you're not abandoning a problem. Enduring the hardships together as a fan base gives you something to talk about with other people from your home town, and a sense of community is a good thing, even if you're a community with an experience mostly riddled with failure.
In my sports-watching adult life, I've endured as much disappointment as a fan of any city's teams, save perhaps Cleveland. While Cleveland has only three professional teams, they manage to pack a lot of despair into those three teams. And if you happen to like the Ohio hockey team (the Columbus Blue Jackets), you're not making up any ground.
Cleveland has sported a poorly run and poorly performing football team in the Browns, and since the mid-90s, the Cleveland Indians have wallowed in and around mediocrity. The Cavaliers have been to the NBA Finals, but The Decision, the departure, and the Heat winning a pair of titles have made that Finals trip ancient history. Cleveland is also noteworthy as the sporting home of "other Joe," my former partner in crime in the radio world. He's a guy who's known my pain for years and years, and while LeBron James' return means he's likely closer to ending his drought, we're mostly in the same boat.
Between Cleveland and Washington, we've got disappointment covered.
So why endure it? Obviously it's easier to pick individual teams with amazing players like the Pittsburgh Penguins or the Green Bay Packers, or a city with gobs of money and history like Boston or Chicago. You've got a better shot at a title, which means you won't have to deal with the shit that everyone else seems to enjoy throwing at people who choose to remain hometown fans. As a Capitals fan, I've not met a single Penguin fan in the DMV who resists the urge to twist the knife. And good luck finding a Cowboys fan in Maryland who doesn't exude glee whenever the Redskins falter.
Which brings us back to the question: why endure such pain? Wouldn't it be easier to just switch over to a better team, or a better city? Wouldn't you feel less disappointment?
Maybe.
But the whole idea of sticking with your team is that one day, it'll be worth it. I've ridden the Bullets/Wizards since I was a little kid. If they're ever able to win the NBA title, I'll celebrate my butt off. If the Caps are ever able to overcome history and raise the Stanley Cup, I can't even begin to imagine the relief and joy I'll feel. We stick with our teams because we have faith and hope that one day, they'll win. And we want to be around for it.
We see all these cities hosting parades and we think, "God, that would be amazing." We watch other teams raise banners and we think, "Someday that'll be us." We see guys like Trent Dilfer and Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady talk about their trips to Disney World, and we think, "There's no reason Robert Griffin or Kirk Cousins couldn't take that trip, right?" Some of it is delusion (the 'Skins may never win another game). Some of it is playing the odds (hockey has a great deal of parity in its playoffs; almost any team has a shot). And some of it is wishful thinking (Kevin Durant hasn't said he wouldn't come to the Wiz). And part of it is simple stubbornness. But at this point, no way am I changing sides.
The O's are still just four wins from the World Series!
Friday, October 10, 2014
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals - Position By Position
I was watching SportsCenter yesterday, and I saw a segment in which Eduardo Perez went position-by-position among hitters and compared the two American League teams that will begin the Championship Series tonight: the upstart Kansas City Royals and my hometown Baltimore Orioles. I found myself interested in the results for obvious reasons; I like hearing what people think of the Orioles, and since we've had a little break here in between series, I'm frothing for baseball talk.
Well, Eduardo Perez seems to be stuck in his Cincinnati/St. Louis years, and can't get away from middle America, because his picks were mostly insane. Alright, not insane, but I disagreed with more than one. So, I decided to do my own comparison. It'll have to be quick, since the series starts today and I want this posted beforehand, so I can be accountable for my absurd claims. But I'll provide as much information as I can, and I'll definitely fly off at the handle on at least one of these.
Here we go. (Name preceded by * is my choice. WAR numbers, and most other statistics, retrieved from baseball-reference.com)
Catcher
*Kansas City - Salvador Perez (WAR 3.3) (Eduardo's pick)
Baltimore - Nick Hundley (0.1)/Caleb Joseph (1.2)
Can't really argue with Eduardo on this one. Perez is a solid hitter and has a good arm for throwing out base-stealers. That won't matter much against an Orioles team that doesn't run, but even if the Orioles never get caught stealing, Perez is a better catcher and better hitter than either of Baltimore's guys. If Matt Wieters were healthy this would be closer, but since he's not, Perez takes it easily.
First Base
Kansas City - Eric Hosmer (0.8) (Eduardo's pick)
*Baltimore - Steve Pearce (6.0)
Here we go, my first disagreement with Eduardo, but I can't really blame Eddie. He's fallen into the trap of recency. Eric Hosmer had an amazing Division series, hitting .500 and delivering a number of clutch hits for the Royals. But the reality is, there's no reason to expect Hosmer to continue to mash that way. His career slash line is .275/.328/.418. A .418 slugging percentage for your first baseman? Ask the Nationals how that turned out (sorry Adam LaRoche). I'll grant you that Pearce's performance this season has been somewhat out-of-nowhere, but so was Nelson Cruz's in 2009, and it turns out he can play.
Also of note is that Hosmer is actually a small minus as a defender, with a -0.3 dWAR. Maybe it comes into play, maybe it doesn't, but it's worth noting. Pearce, for what it's worth, posted a 1.5 dWAR.
Second Base
*Kansas City - Omar Infante (0.7) (Eduardo's pick)
Baltimore - Jonathan Schoop (1.5)
I would've liked to pick Schoop here, and obviously with their comparative WARs, I'd have had some justifications. Schoop was actually a really solid defender this year, and I like his pop, but I have a lot more faith in Infante. Infante is a veteran with some playoff experience. While he has been an abysmal batter in the playoffs, I don't buy into that as a characteristic. I think his experience will only prove to be a positive going forward.
And yes, I'm aware that Infante is 0/11 this postseason. I'm still leaning in his direction.
Third Base
*Kansas City - Mike Moustakas (0.4)
Baltimore - Ryan Flaherty (1.1)
(Eduardo called this a push)
While my pick is Moustakas by a hair, the reality is that neither guy figures to be a difference-maker in the series. Moustakas was a high draft pick who's shown very little hitting prowess outside of the occasional home run. Flaherty, meanwhile, is also a light-hitting marginal player. Moustakas showed some pop in the series against the California Angels (I'll never change), and he's got more pedigree, so he gets the nod. If Manny Machado were healthy, this would be a no-brainer pick for the O's though. Just another sad reminder of how injuries affect every season.
Shortstop
Kansas City - Alcides Escobar (2.4)
*Baltimore - J.J. Hardy (3.4) (Eduardo's pick)
Alcides Escobar is a slap hitter with good speed but minimal power. He's also one of those players who gets a reputation for being a good fielder because of his speed, when in reality he's simply average. Hardy, on the other hand, has been a plus defender at shortstop for years, winning Gold Glove Awards in 2012 and 2013. He historically has had good power as well, though it disappeared for most of the year. He beat up on the Tigers in the Divisional series, and clubbed what looked like an important homer in Game 1 (though that was before the O's went for 8 in the bottom of the eighth). I like Hardy here.
Left Field
*Kansas City - Alex Gordon (6.6) (Eduardo's pick)
Baltimore - Alejandro De Aza (0.7)
The Orioles have gone with a couple different options in the outfield, but De Aza seems to be the weapon of choice right now. He's been fine, but obviously Gordon is vital to the Royals and a much better player. I know his WAR was 6.6 this year, but when I heard Eduardo Perez say that Gordon is going to be in the MVP discussion this year, I lost my head. Gordon is a plus-plus defensive player, and that's great. But his offensive statistics simply don't warrant consideration. He played in 156 games, but didn't break 90 runs or RBI. He hit .266 with 19 homers. He stole 12 bases. Let me know which of those numbers you want to point to as MVP caliber.
Gordon is my pick, but come on Eddie. Don't make a fool of yourself.
Center Field
Kansas City - Lorenzo Cain (5.0)
*Baltimore - Adam Jones (4.9) (Eduardo's pick)
Get serious. I love Lorenzo Cain as much as the next guy, but get serious.
Right Field
Kansas City - Nori Aoki (1.0) (Eduardo's pick)
*Baltimore - Nick Markakis (2.1)
I actually don't agree that Markakis is even 2 wins better than a replacement-level player, but he's still better than Aoki. Aoki is representative of the whole Royals team: he's a guy with speed, decent batting average, and minimal power. He apparently posted a -1.3 dWAR, which I suppose I have to trust since I haven't seen him play outside of some limited playoff time. Markakis is mostly an on-base guy with a little pop and the ability to get around the bases. He's actually really good at scoring from second or going first-to-third on a single, which helps keep the pressure on and threaten big innings. So he's got that going for him.
Designated Hitter
Kansas City - Billy Butler (-0.3)
Baltimore - Nelson Cruz (4.7)
(No pick by Eduardo)
I thought about just letting the two WARs speak for themselves, but I decided I wanted to mention Cruz's stats for posterity. Also, Eduardo Perez simply ignored the DH spot, which basically writes off the Orioles' best hitter. Cruz hit 40 home runs to lead the American League this season, and if possible, he's gotten even more deadly in the postseason. He hit .500 against the Tigers in the ALDS, but that's nothing new for Cruz. In his career, he's hit .297 with 16 HR in 37 postseason games, and he figures once again to be the lynchpin for the Orioles' offense.
Pitching
These two teams actually have pretty similar pitching staffs. The best pitcher is a Royal (James Shields), but there's truthfully not much separating Shields from Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, or his teammate Yordano Ventura. Additionally, both bullpens are strong, though I'd give an edge to the Orioles, owing mostly to their trade deadline acquisition of Andrew Miller. He was an expensive addition, but that guy is as good as advertised.
Eduardo declared that the Royals had better pitching and defense.
Wrap-Up and Prediction
Listen, it's still baseball. I think the Orioles are the better hitting team, and the stats on Baseball Reference say that in fact they were the best fielding team in the majors this year. Their starters are okay, and their bullpen is excellent. But you still have to play the games. Just ask the Angels, Dodgers, and Nationals. I desperately want the Orioles to win, but everybody's going to have their day. Still, it's hard to go against all this data I managed to assemble, even if I did probably look at it with a biased point of view. So, what the heck.
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles over Kansas City Royals (4 games to 1)
Well, Eduardo Perez seems to be stuck in his Cincinnati/St. Louis years, and can't get away from middle America, because his picks were mostly insane. Alright, not insane, but I disagreed with more than one. So, I decided to do my own comparison. It'll have to be quick, since the series starts today and I want this posted beforehand, so I can be accountable for my absurd claims. But I'll provide as much information as I can, and I'll definitely fly off at the handle on at least one of these.
Here we go. (Name preceded by * is my choice. WAR numbers, and most other statistics, retrieved from baseball-reference.com)
Catcher
*Kansas City - Salvador Perez (WAR 3.3) (Eduardo's pick)
Baltimore - Nick Hundley (0.1)/Caleb Joseph (1.2)
Can't really argue with Eduardo on this one. Perez is a solid hitter and has a good arm for throwing out base-stealers. That won't matter much against an Orioles team that doesn't run, but even if the Orioles never get caught stealing, Perez is a better catcher and better hitter than either of Baltimore's guys. If Matt Wieters were healthy this would be closer, but since he's not, Perez takes it easily.
First Base
Kansas City - Eric Hosmer (0.8) (Eduardo's pick)
*Baltimore - Steve Pearce (6.0)
Here we go, my first disagreement with Eduardo, but I can't really blame Eddie. He's fallen into the trap of recency. Eric Hosmer had an amazing Division series, hitting .500 and delivering a number of clutch hits for the Royals. But the reality is, there's no reason to expect Hosmer to continue to mash that way. His career slash line is .275/.328/.418. A .418 slugging percentage for your first baseman? Ask the Nationals how that turned out (sorry Adam LaRoche). I'll grant you that Pearce's performance this season has been somewhat out-of-nowhere, but so was Nelson Cruz's in 2009, and it turns out he can play.
Also of note is that Hosmer is actually a small minus as a defender, with a -0.3 dWAR. Maybe it comes into play, maybe it doesn't, but it's worth noting. Pearce, for what it's worth, posted a 1.5 dWAR.
Second Base
*Kansas City - Omar Infante (0.7) (Eduardo's pick)
Baltimore - Jonathan Schoop (1.5)
I would've liked to pick Schoop here, and obviously with their comparative WARs, I'd have had some justifications. Schoop was actually a really solid defender this year, and I like his pop, but I have a lot more faith in Infante. Infante is a veteran with some playoff experience. While he has been an abysmal batter in the playoffs, I don't buy into that as a characteristic. I think his experience will only prove to be a positive going forward.
And yes, I'm aware that Infante is 0/11 this postseason. I'm still leaning in his direction.
Third Base
*Kansas City - Mike Moustakas (0.4)
Baltimore - Ryan Flaherty (1.1)
(Eduardo called this a push)
While my pick is Moustakas by a hair, the reality is that neither guy figures to be a difference-maker in the series. Moustakas was a high draft pick who's shown very little hitting prowess outside of the occasional home run. Flaherty, meanwhile, is also a light-hitting marginal player. Moustakas showed some pop in the series against the California Angels (I'll never change), and he's got more pedigree, so he gets the nod. If Manny Machado were healthy, this would be a no-brainer pick for the O's though. Just another sad reminder of how injuries affect every season.
Shortstop
Kansas City - Alcides Escobar (2.4)
*Baltimore - J.J. Hardy (3.4) (Eduardo's pick)
Alcides Escobar is a slap hitter with good speed but minimal power. He's also one of those players who gets a reputation for being a good fielder because of his speed, when in reality he's simply average. Hardy, on the other hand, has been a plus defender at shortstop for years, winning Gold Glove Awards in 2012 and 2013. He historically has had good power as well, though it disappeared for most of the year. He beat up on the Tigers in the Divisional series, and clubbed what looked like an important homer in Game 1 (though that was before the O's went for 8 in the bottom of the eighth). I like Hardy here.
Left Field
*Kansas City - Alex Gordon (6.6) (Eduardo's pick)
Baltimore - Alejandro De Aza (0.7)
The Orioles have gone with a couple different options in the outfield, but De Aza seems to be the weapon of choice right now. He's been fine, but obviously Gordon is vital to the Royals and a much better player. I know his WAR was 6.6 this year, but when I heard Eduardo Perez say that Gordon is going to be in the MVP discussion this year, I lost my head. Gordon is a plus-plus defensive player, and that's great. But his offensive statistics simply don't warrant consideration. He played in 156 games, but didn't break 90 runs or RBI. He hit .266 with 19 homers. He stole 12 bases. Let me know which of those numbers you want to point to as MVP caliber.
Gordon is my pick, but come on Eddie. Don't make a fool of yourself.
Center Field
Kansas City - Lorenzo Cain (5.0)
*Baltimore - Adam Jones (4.9) (Eduardo's pick)
Get serious. I love Lorenzo Cain as much as the next guy, but get serious.
Right Field
Kansas City - Nori Aoki (1.0) (Eduardo's pick)
*Baltimore - Nick Markakis (2.1)
I actually don't agree that Markakis is even 2 wins better than a replacement-level player, but he's still better than Aoki. Aoki is representative of the whole Royals team: he's a guy with speed, decent batting average, and minimal power. He apparently posted a -1.3 dWAR, which I suppose I have to trust since I haven't seen him play outside of some limited playoff time. Markakis is mostly an on-base guy with a little pop and the ability to get around the bases. He's actually really good at scoring from second or going first-to-third on a single, which helps keep the pressure on and threaten big innings. So he's got that going for him.
Designated Hitter
Kansas City - Billy Butler (-0.3)
Baltimore - Nelson Cruz (4.7)
(No pick by Eduardo)
I thought about just letting the two WARs speak for themselves, but I decided I wanted to mention Cruz's stats for posterity. Also, Eduardo Perez simply ignored the DH spot, which basically writes off the Orioles' best hitter. Cruz hit 40 home runs to lead the American League this season, and if possible, he's gotten even more deadly in the postseason. He hit .500 against the Tigers in the ALDS, but that's nothing new for Cruz. In his career, he's hit .297 with 16 HR in 37 postseason games, and he figures once again to be the lynchpin for the Orioles' offense.
Pitching
These two teams actually have pretty similar pitching staffs. The best pitcher is a Royal (James Shields), but there's truthfully not much separating Shields from Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, or his teammate Yordano Ventura. Additionally, both bullpens are strong, though I'd give an edge to the Orioles, owing mostly to their trade deadline acquisition of Andrew Miller. He was an expensive addition, but that guy is as good as advertised.
Eduardo declared that the Royals had better pitching and defense.
Wrap-Up and Prediction
Listen, it's still baseball. I think the Orioles are the better hitting team, and the stats on Baseball Reference say that in fact they were the best fielding team in the majors this year. Their starters are okay, and their bullpen is excellent. But you still have to play the games. Just ask the Angels, Dodgers, and Nationals. I desperately want the Orioles to win, but everybody's going to have their day. Still, it's hard to go against all this data I managed to assemble, even if I did probably look at it with a biased point of view. So, what the heck.
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles over Kansas City Royals (4 games to 1)
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