Fantasy Baseball Categories: New School vs. Old School

I've been playing fantasy baseball for something like twenty years. For about half that time, I've pondered the idea of whether or not on-base-percentage is a superior fantasy statistic to batting average. And even after a decade, I'm still not sure.

Obviously, on-base percentage captures a more complete picture of batters' plate appearances. And as Moneyball taught us, reaching base and avoiding an out is almost as valuable as actually making contact and getting a hit. So shouldn't your fantasy team be rewarded for that?

Well, maybe.

The most important factor in determining whether or not you should use a category for your fantasy league is not how well it reflects the level of a player's contribution towards his team's success. While you do generally want the best players in baseball to be the most valuable players in your fantasy league, you don't necessarily need them to line up perfectly. I'm sure that OPS+ and FIP and the dozens of other new statistics offer a new numerical method to determine the effectiveness of players in various circumstances. But that statistical fidelity doesn't satisfy the most crucial factor in competing against friends or co-workers in fantasy baseball.

Far more important is that the game is fun to play.

The best example of this is the use of pitcher wins as a category. I have an owner in my main league who's asked me multiple times if we should swap out wins and replace them with quality starts (not demanded mind you, just asked). His reasoning was that a pitcher could pitch poorly but still pick up a win. In this regard, pitchers on strong offensive teams get a value bump, and pitchers on weak teams leak a little value. Additionally, relief pitchers get completely shut out of the "quality starts" category, while they can vulture a win from time to time. His position was that quality starts would be a better representation of the "essence" of what a win should mean: a strong outing by a starting pitcher.

Only problem is, that's not what a win is. A win is when a pitcher satisfies the rules that dictate when a pitcher gets credit for a win. The nuances of those rules are part of what make fantasy baseball exciting. When you need one win and you've got no starting pitchers left, but Tony Watson just entered a tie game in the 8th, you've got a shot. That win is fucking ALIVE.

Anybody who's a football fan knows that those nuances are what make the game interesting. Every time there's a review on possession, or a question about an out-of-bounds play, or clock management issues, football fans go nuts. They talk and talk and talk about those nuances. Terms like "forward progress" and "football move" come into play, and everybody becomes a review official. Nuances are what make everyone feel like their team's got a chance, and those chances are what you would lose if you switched out wins for quality starts.

In fantasy baseball, the standard 5x5 categories create a lot of varied value from a lot of different players. I have a friend who plays in an 8x8 league that uses hits, batting average, and on-base percentage. Well guess what? The guys who get a lot of hits also have high batting averages and high on-base percentages. So everybody's looking at the same guys, because they register in six of the eight categories.

That's not interesting.

Interesting is making a choice between an AVG + SB guy or a HR + RBI guy, based on other factors like fielding position, injury history, your roster makeup, category depth, etc. The nuances that separate one player from another are what make fantasy baseball exciting and interesting.

If you're hoping to run a simulation, there are plenty of digital options for that. I got a huge kick out of player MLB Front Office Manager (despite its scathing reviews). My cousin and I used to play in simulation leagues using the All-Star Baseball games of the late 90's. And with the current age of PC gaming, there are dozens of well-designed options available.

But if you're playing fantasy baseball, you're looking at a different kind of experience. You want to be able to watch real games happen in real time, hoping for certain outcomes. You want to be able to rejoice at home runs and strikeouts. You want to check your lineup every day to see what happened, and how you might be able to do better tomorrow.

When you're considering what sort of statistical categories to use, I strongly recommend that you focus on those fun moments of watching GameCenter, checking box scores, and exulting or lamenting with each batter. A little simplicity will go a long way.

Top 5 Game of Thrones Storylines Heading Into Season Five

When we left off, we'd actually resolved a fair number of questions. The war between the Starks and Lannisters has ended, the wildling army was routed, Tyrion had escaped execution, and Arya was on a boat to Braavos. So is there really anything left to look forward to?

Yes, obviously.

Here are my top five storylines going into the next season of Game of Thrones. Some of these I have an idea about because I've read the books, but with the changes that have been made recently, there are no guarantees. These are the five questions I've got going into the next season.

5. What happens when Arya actually arrives in Braavos?

I'm not like most people in that I don't love Arya's storyline. I liked The Hound, and I did love that moment when Arya murdered those Freys right after The Red Wedding. So I acknowledge that there's potential here for some fun times. Braavos is also a compelling place, from what we've heard so far, so I'm eager to see what the city has to offer.

4. What the hell is going on in the Iron Islands?

This question definitely derives more from the books than the show. It seems like the show has gone away from the Ironborn as a storyline, other than Theon/Reek out of necessity. But my feeling is that there's more going on here. I mean, remember that Balon Greyjoy was one of the names that Stannis gave the Red God when he did his little blood magic with Gendry. Robb Stark and Joffrey Baratheon are dead, and their deaths sent tidal waves through the kingdoms. Surely the third name has some value as well.

3. How does Dorne react to the death of Oberyn?

Oberyn became one of the most popular characters in the show during season 4, which obviously sealed his fate. But seriously, Oberyn was a "Prince" of Dorne, brother of Doran, and father to many dangerous daughters. Oberyn and Doran's sister Elia was murdered by Gregor Clegane, a Lannister bannerman. You may also remember that King Tommen's sister Myrcella was sent to Dorne back in season 2 and betrothed to Trystane Martell, son of Doran, adding another complication to the relationship between the throne and Dorne. All of this adds up to, Dorne has a lot of interconnected pieces with the Lannisters, and we've only seen Oberyn. All the talk is that we'll see a lot of Dorne this season; I'm looking forward to finding out what they have to say.

2. What will Jamie and Cersei do without Tywin pulling the strings?

This is a question I have some sense of an answer to, based on the book content, but that doesn't mean I know anything. Tywin had relative control over the queen, but she's been becoming more and more unspooled since Joffrey's death. Will Cersei go completely off the deep end now? Tyrion's escaped, her controlling father is dead, and her soft son sits upon the iron throne. And what about Jamie? He has to know that Tyrion killed their father (and Shae, but who cares). While Jamie clearly hated much about his father, I don't think he ever wanted him dead. Their reactions might be the best part of this first episode.

1. What's going to happen to Jorah Mormont?

I've always liked Jorah, both Mormonts actually. I (and I'm sure all guys) have a bit of experience with and can sympathize with unrequited love. We didn't see much deception at the beginning really; Jorah seemed perfectly devoted to Daenerys from the get-go, and it's possible that he truly was. He may have sought only to prevent Viserys or Khal Drogo from conquering Westeros, and once they had both died, and Dany was on her own, his loyalty was unfettered. Regardless, he's been cast out from Daenerys' city, and is going...where? We have no idea. Even in the books, Jorah simply disappears (for a while). This is one of those circumstances where a non-central character from the books is probably going to get some extra story. And if you're not sure if you like that, consider that large portions of Robb Stark's story, Varys' story, Baelish's story, and The Hound's story were all constructed for television. Plenty of good TV in there, and there's another opportunity for the same here.

Oh my god, tonight's the night. I wish I didn't have to work so I could watch it right away. Don't ruin anything, I'll watch it late tonight!

Top 5 Best Living Fighters In the Game of Thrones World

There's a conversation in season one between a couple of Lannister soldiers about who the best swordsman is in the seven kingdoms. Their top picks include "our man Jamie" and the Mountain, Ser Gregor Clegane. But at this point in the story, Jamie's lost his sword hand, the Mountain's condition is unknown, the Hound is dead or near-death, and countless other killers have been killed: Khal Drogo, Ned Stark, Oberyn Martell was clearly well-trained and vicious, and Qhorin Halfhand must've killed his share of wildlings.

But that's the past. Who's left? Well, still plenty of bloodletters on the roster. Here are my picks for the top five fighters (in their current states) in the world of Game of Thrones at the close of season four.


5. Jon Snow - This will probably be the most questionable choice of mine, but here's my logic. Jon Snow is old enough to be plenty capable, even though we've known him from young adulthood. He was trained in Winterfell by presumably skilled warriors, and he's spent basically his whole life being angry about being a bastard. He's also been a brother of the Night's Watch, learned under Jeor Mormont, ranged north of The Wall, survived imprisonment by the wildlings, climbed The Wall, battled and escaped wildlings, and defended The Wall against impossible odds. He's a survivor; he's on my list.

4. Daario Naharis - I'm cheating a little bit here. There's a character from the books named Strong Belwas who's been sort of incorporated into Daario's character, and so I've combined them into a single "show character" in my mind, and Strong Belwas is a badass. But Daario is as well; remember he killed two other killers in his camp and brought their heads before Dany, no small task. His one-shot kill of the champion outside Meereen also displayed his prowess and speed. We haven't really seen much of him in combat, but he, Grey Worm, and Jorah basically took down Yunkai on their own. That's not nothing.

3. Brienne of Tarth - Brienne is far from being the most skilled swordsman(/woman) in the realm, but her size is something she puts to use quite well. When matched one-on-one, she smashed Loras Tyrell (which coincidentally pushed him off of this list) and she bested the Hound. I think the very best fighters would be able to counter her size, but most people can't, and she makes them pay.

2. Tormund Giantsbane - It's tough to judge Tormund against the best fighters in the world, but he certainly had no trouble annihilating the men of the Night's Watch. He's powerful, experienced, and ruthless. He also seems single-minded to the point of madness, where once he decided he was fighting someone, he'd fight them until they were very, very dead.

1. Bronn, son of..."you wouldn't know him." - In the books, Bronn is a skilled fighter who could stand toe-to-toe with most opponents. In the show, Bronn kills whole columns of troops at every turn. He's a cold-blooded killer, and he's got no qualms about getting dirty to win a fight. That plus the fact that he seems as fast and skilled a swordsman as anybody puts him at the top of my list. The scene where he and The Hound are at each other's throats right before the battle of Blackwater Bay had me worried one would get killed, but would've been maybe the best fight of the show. Hopefully we get some more good ones this season.

Tomorrow's the big day! Get hyped!

Top 5 Game of Thrones Characters I Hope We Get Back In Season 5

Game of Thrones has an insane number of characters. The story traverses two continents and countless cities (alright you could count them, but why). Dozens of characters come and go every episode, and as I've mentioned, plenty of them find their ends in the story.

But some of them don't. Some of them have just disappeared. We might hear about them here or there, and we might not. I've learned, from the reappearance of guys like Barristan Selmy, Janos Slynt, and Littlefinger, that there are no guarantees when a character slips out of sight. So here are five characters who didn't make an appearance in season 4, and who I'd like to see more of.

Note: I have no information about whether or not anyone listed below will return at all in the show, ever. I imagine two of them will (#3 and #1), but the others are smaller characters that aren't at all necessary to finish the telling of the great story. Anyways, I just wanted to express that despite having read the books, I don't really know much more than a non-reader would.

5. Syrio Forel - You'll remember Syrio was Arya Stark's "dancing master" from season one. He had a funny way of speaking that I enjoyed, and he proved his ability with a sword when we saw him disable several Lannister guards with a training sword. His fate was left unresolved, though Arya believes him to be dead, as she relayed as such to the Hound last season. And it may be that the writers had hoped to resolve his fate through that conversation. But I'm holding out hope that we'll see him again someday.


4. Gendry - One of Robert Baratheon's many bastard sons, Gendry was likable from the start. He had a quick wit and a good heart. He was a lowborn orphan who seemed to not let it bother him, and it's no surprise that he and Davos hit it off. When last we saw him, he was rowing himself back to King's Landing. It might be that that's the end of his story, but with the Baratheon bloodline still of importance, I think it's possible we'll get to see him again.

3. Rickon Stark - Rickon doesn't really have a "story" going on; he's simply the youngest of the Stark children. At the end of season 3, he and Osha split off from their party and were heading towards the Last Hearth, home of the Umbers. If you can't place them, the lord of the Umbers was the Greatjon, the guy who threatened Robb Stark and got his fingers bitten off, then became one of his most loyal subjects. We didn't get a final note on whether he was at the Red Wedding, so it's possible he's out there as well. But Rickon is the last male Stark south of The Wall, so while the character isn't terribly interesting, his return to Game of Thrones would throw another spin into the world.


2. The Brotherhood Without Banners (Thoros of Myr, Beric Dondarrion, Anguy) - I decided to lump all these guys together, even though I like them all for different reasons. They're all part of the Brotherhood Without Banners, and they're all entertaining. Anguy was cocky and funny, Thoros was drunk and roguish, and Beric was, you know, Jesus. They're also a fairly large group of skilled fighters defying the region's legal authority. Plus, in the event that we see them return, we'll also likely get a little somebody from the books, who every book-reader knows and desperately wants to show her face.

1. Walder Frey - Walder Frey was just perfect. From the moment we met him in season one, he was the kind of guy who puts your hair on edge. He's creepy, he's old, and he just has a way of talking that makes you know he's up to no good. I didn't think he had the Red Wedding in him, but if there was anyone in the show who could, he's on that list. I enjoyed the little debriefing he had with Roose Bolton, but we haven't seen him since. Granted, I only want to see him come back so that he can get his comeuppance, but I really, really want to see that.

Top 5 Non-Death Moments in Game of Thrones

Obviously, spoiler alert.

As I mentioned in my previous article, Game of Thrones really feels like it's all about death, but that's not exactly true. There are plenty of instances where a character has a particularly memorable moment in which they don't check out. Granted, there may be deaths associated with the event, but it's Game of Thrones; someone's always dying.

So here are my top five non-death moments in Game of Thrones.


5. Stannis Rides Down the Wildling Army - This could have been higher, should have been higher. But it occurred right at the beginning of the final episode of season 4, so it had no time to build. In the books, this was one of the most incredible scenes because of its total surprise factor. There was still a surprise in the show, but as I said, the scene itself needed a few minutes to ruminate, in my book. Still, cavalry always makes for great television.
 
4. The Hound Saves Sansa - This is a little bit of a cheat because there are definitely deaths in the scene. But the scene isn't about the deaths; it's about Sansa being moments away from rape, murder, and who knows what else, and Sandor Clegane showing his true colors and saving the day. We'd had a few hints at the "goodness" eating away at him, like when he defends Loras Tyrell at the tournament in season 1. But this was white knight, damsel in distress stuff. Very interesting, very telling.

3. Jamie Pushes Bran Out a Window - This might not be quite so high on my list had it not taken place as the cliffhanger of the very first episode. But it was the perfect act to set the tone for the show; Lannisters don't give a damn about Starks, even though they're lords. Jamie has no concern for (attempted) murder. And, naturally, the bastard-born children of Jamie and Cersei are what drives much of the story in Westeros. A big, early moment in the show.

2. Beric Dondarrion Dies...and Then Doesn't - The Hound and Thoros of Myr are two of my favorite characters in the show (Thoros is less interesting in the books). This scene is surrounded by a bunch of conversation involving those two, so it's a recipe for success. But the resurrection (or at least delayed death) of Beric Dondarrion is compelling stuff. It's the first time we see some "magic" type stuff outside of Melisandre, and it gives you the sense that there's a lot at work in this world. Also, flaming sword, trial by combat, epic quotes, it's all there. Great stuff.

1. Jamie Loses His Hand - One of the landmark moments of the series is when the made-for-TV character Locke chops off Jamie Lannister's sword hand. It's not quite the game-changer that Eddard Stark's death is, but it's right up there. Jamie is a completely different character after he loses his hand; he's utterly defeated. Even as he returns to King's Landing, everything's changed for him. The loss of his hand, and the transformation of him into an unexceptional fighter, forces him to forge a new identity.

In putting together this list, I realized the deaths are just way more heavy. Yeah these are good spots, but because there's so much death in the show, death of important characters, these non-death moments are just basically the background events, the build-ups. Still, they're good scenes.

Did I forget one? Almost certainly I did. Say what you liked best in the comments!

Five Top 5's for Game of Thrones - Season Five (SPOILERS)

I really enjoy Game of Thrones. I love the novels, and the HBO series has done a pretty good job of capturing a lot of the great moments from the books. I've rewatched the first season a dozen times, and seasons 2-4 a few times each. I still grin watching The Hound protect Loras Tyrell from The Mountain, I still hate Joffrey Baratheon with every fiber of my being, and I still get chills watching the Red Wedding.

So with Game of Thrones coming back next week, I've got Game on the brain. Luckily for you, my adoring fans, that means a lot of articles this week. I'll be posting a different Top 5 each day between now and Sunday, the day of the Season 5 premiere. That makes for five different Top 5 lists. These lists will be in regard to the television series, though I may give some hints about book content here or there. I invite you to come along for the ride, and post your own Top 5s in the comments!

First...

Top 5 Deaths (So Far) In Game of Thrones

From the beginning, Game of Thrones has been a show about death. The seven kingdoms thrown into war, deception and murder at every turn, it's a story about ends and beginnings. And after episode nine of the first season, anybody who watches the show realized that no one is safe. The deaths bring life to the show (and to the books), so we'll start this set of Top 5 lists with the top five deaths from the TV series.


5. Ghost Stannis Kills Renly - This killing wasn't as surprising or gruesome or emotional as many of the others, but it gets bonus points for the gravity of how things changed in Westeros because of it. Renly Baratheon's death occurred just moments after he had solidified a peace with the Starks that (without dark powers at work) would've made this a two season show. But when Renly is murdered, the Starks are suddenly on their own again, Stannis' power is solidified, and the Tyrells become allies of convenience with the Lannisters. As I said, not an exceptional death scene, but an important one in the lore of the lands.

4. The "Deaths" of Bran and Rickon Stark - As if we needed further reminder of how brutal a medieval, feudal world could be. While I think most people with any sense could tell that something was amiss on television, you can see how the people of Winterfell would believe that their liege lords had been slain and burned alive. This also started Bran's trip north of The Wall, which while not terribly entertaining, has definitely been a big part of the story, and figures to be even more so going forward.

3. Ned Stark Loses His Head - I kind of wish I'd gotten on board Game of Thrones right away, so I could've seen Baelor in real-time. I feel like the moment when you realize there's nothing that's going to save this character, this man who you thought would endure the series, that's why the show is such a phenomenon (see #1). It also was telling that the character who was most stubbornly moral was unable to survive the first season of the show. The talk is all about White Walkers and "Taking The Black," but in Westeros, only gray survives.

2. The Execution of Lady - It says something about humans that we all feel more sympathy and sadness for a cute wolf than we do for a human being, but it's utterly true. I think maybe we see all the flaws of humans, whereas animals seem innocent, like children. This death also introduced us to the cruelty of Queen Cersei, which endures to this day. Every time I re-watch the episode, I cringe when Ned is forced to put down Lady, and I'm reminded of how despite her random moments of kindness, Cersei is a miserable bitch.

1. The Red Wedding - I would've liked to have found a way to not be so predictable as to put this at number one, but anything else would've been insincere. The truth is, there were no deaths I was as unprepared for as Robb and Catelyn Starks'. It was before I had read any of the books, and I hadn't even really thought about the mechanics of a season (generally, episode 9 is the one with the greatest surprises/events). So I went into the episode without any idea of what was coming, and it was brilliant. I mean it was terrible, shocking, brutal, even more brutal than the original story. But if we consume art to experience emotions, the Red Wedding is one of our generation's greatest works.

That's my top five. Do you disagree? Leave a comment in the...well, in the comments!