I've been playing fantasy baseball for something like twenty years. For about half that time, I've pondered the idea of whether or not on-base-percentage is a superior fantasy statistic to batting average. And even after a decade, I'm still not sure.
Obviously, on-base percentage captures a more complete picture of batters' plate appearances. And as Moneyball taught us, reaching base and avoiding an out is almost as valuable as actually making contact and getting a hit. So shouldn't your fantasy team be rewarded for that?
Well, maybe.
The most important factor in determining whether or not you should use a category for your fantasy league is not how well it reflects the level of a player's contribution towards his team's success. While you do generally want the best players in baseball to be the most valuable players in your fantasy league, you don't necessarily need them to line up perfectly. I'm sure that OPS+ and FIP and the dozens of other new statistics offer a new numerical method to determine the effectiveness of players in various circumstances. But that statistical fidelity doesn't satisfy the most crucial factor in competing against friends or co-workers in fantasy baseball.
Far more important is that the game is fun to play.
The best example of this is the use of pitcher wins as a category. I have an owner in my main league who's asked me multiple times if we should swap out wins and replace them with quality starts (not demanded mind you, just asked). His reasoning was that a pitcher could pitch poorly but still pick up a win. In this regard, pitchers on strong offensive teams get a value bump, and pitchers on weak teams leak a little value. Additionally, relief pitchers get completely shut out of the "quality starts" category, while they can vulture a win from time to time. His position was that quality starts would be a better representation of the "essence" of what a win should mean: a strong outing by a starting pitcher.
Only problem is, that's not what a win is. A win is when a pitcher satisfies the rules that dictate when a pitcher gets credit for a win. The nuances of those rules are part of what make fantasy baseball exciting. When you need one win and you've got no starting pitchers left, but Tony Watson just entered a tie game in the 8th, you've got a shot. That win is fucking ALIVE.
Anybody who's a football fan knows that those nuances are what make the game interesting. Every time there's a review on possession, or a question about an out-of-bounds play, or clock management issues, football fans go nuts. They talk and talk and talk about those nuances. Terms like "forward progress" and "football move" come into play, and everybody becomes a review official. Nuances are what make everyone feel like their team's got a chance, and those chances are what you would lose if you switched out wins for quality starts.
In fantasy baseball, the standard 5x5 categories create a lot of varied value from a lot of different players. I have a friend who plays in an 8x8 league that uses hits, batting average, and on-base percentage. Well guess what? The guys who get a lot of hits also have high batting averages and high on-base percentages. So everybody's looking at the same guys, because they register in six of the eight categories.
That's not interesting.
Interesting is making a choice between an AVG + SB guy or a HR + RBI guy, based on other factors like fielding position, injury history, your roster makeup, category depth, etc. The nuances that separate one player from another are what make fantasy baseball exciting and interesting.
If you're hoping to run a simulation, there are plenty of digital options for that. I got a huge kick out of player MLB Front Office Manager (despite its scathing reviews). My cousin and I used to play in simulation leagues using the All-Star Baseball games of the late 90's. And with the current age of PC gaming, there are dozens of well-designed options available.
But if you're playing fantasy baseball, you're looking at a different kind of experience. You want to be able to watch real games happen in real time, hoping for certain outcomes. You want to be able to rejoice at home runs and strikeouts. You want to check your lineup every day to see what happened, and how you might be able to do better tomorrow.
When you're considering what sort of statistical categories to use, I strongly recommend that you focus on those fun moments of watching GameCenter, checking box scores, and exulting or lamenting with each batter. A little simplicity will go a long way.
Showing posts with label Fantasy Baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy Baseball. Show all posts
Thursday, February 18, 2016
Friday, February 5, 2016
2016 Salary Keeper Machinations - Part 2
Click here to look at Part 1, where I discuss the rules of the league as well as my hitters.
Here we go with Part 2. One thing to note: this league uses non-specific pitching slots. The only difference between starting pitchers and relievers is the stats they produce. I can play up to 10 total pitchers, in any combination of starters and relievers.
Jose Quintana - $11, C
I took a chance on Quintana in a pre-season trade last year. He wasn't terrible value at $6, but now that he's $11, he's definitely not on my keeper list. Plan: Release into draft.
Mike Fiers - $1, B
Fiers was actually in the same trade as Quintana, but I released him during the season, then re-acquired him off free agency for a dollar. He had a lot of ups and downs, but for $1, I'll probably take a flier. Plan: Keep if there's room.
Drew Pomeranz - $1, B
Late in the season, when I realized my best shot at getting enough points to reach 2nd place was with saves, I grabbed every closer I could. Pomeranz got a couple shots at saves late in the year, which was enough for me to go for him. But in 2016 as a back-end starter, even $1 is too much to pay. Plan: Release into draft.
Wade Davis - $6, C
After keeping Davis for $1 last year, I expected to let him go after 2015. But now he figures to be the closer all year for Kansas City, and $6 for a closer with excellent peripherals is a steal. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.
Kenley Jansen - $11, B
Jansen is probably my toughest call among pitchers. His value is certainly high, as a high-end closer. But $11 is a goodly sum. He'd probably cost $15-$18 in the draft, so I think I'll keep him, but he'll be on my trading block. Plan: Keep or trade.
Kevin Jepsen - $21, B
Jepsen was a fill-in closer who pitched well last year, but all that free agent budget I spent on him brought his contract to an ungodly number. Might pay $1 for him in the draft, but also might not. Plan: Release into draft.
A.J. Ramos - $1, B
Easy keep, one dollar for a closer is great value. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.
Shawn Tolleson - $1, B
As I said, one dollar for a closer is great value. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.
Tony Watson - $1, B
I kept Watson last year for $1 as a filler for my pitching staff. I dropped him during the season and reacquired him for $1 again, so I'm looking at a similar player situation. But my team is stronger this year than it was last year. Plan: Keep if there's room.
Joaquin Benoit - $1, B
Benoit is basically Watson except older, with a slightly higher chance of getting a few saves. So, same category. Plan: Keep if there's room.
Jose Berrios
Berrios is a strikeout pitcher who is going to be in spring training this year, with a chance to make the team out of spring. He's got tons of upside, and I'm definitely looking forward to seeing what he can do.
Lucas Giolito
Giolito was kept going into last season by another team, but they found themselves in a roster crunch and waived him, making him available for the midseason minor league draft. I scooped him up, and he immediately became and still is my best starting pitcher asset, even if he doesn't pitch in the majors in 2016.
Henry Owens
Owens was the only minor-leaguer on the team when I took over last offseason. He costs me nothing to keep, so I'll keep him, but he gave up 7 runs on three separate occasions. I'm not optimistic.
Jameson Taillon
Taillon was a big time Pirates pitching prospect, but he's undergone two big surgeries in two years, including Tommy John in 2014. We won't know much until he starts pitching again, but that should happen sooner than later.
Now that I've gone through all of my players and given each of them a "plan," it's time to start sorting out what we might actually do this season. Here are all the players I listed as possible keepers, sorted under their various designations.
Locked in as a keeper
Manny Machado, 3B - $21
Mookie Betts, OF - $10
Shin-Soo Choo, OF - $1
Wade Davis, P - $6
A.J. Ramos, P - $1
Shawn Tolleson, P - $1
Keep as long as he doesn't suffer injury setbacks
Jung Ho Kang, 3B/SS - $1
Keep or trade
Alex Rodriguez, U - $2
Kenley Jansen, P - $11
Keep if there's money
Hunter Pence, OF - $15
Keep if there's room
Chris Colabello, 1B/OF - $1
Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B - $2
Mike Fiers, P - $1
Tony Watson, P - $1
Joaquin Benoit, P - $1
Just in looking at this list, I feel like I need to put out some trade feelers. I think all of these guys have value, not to mention my eight minor league keepers. I should have enough salary space to take on an expensive and high-quality keeper hitter, so that'll be my target.
Based on my (lack of) starting pitching, I think I might be looking at another year of riding relievers and hoping to finish 3rd, waiting for my prospects to blossom into something. Obviously the draft will dictate a lot of that, with who's available and how expensive they are. But I've already got a base of at least three closers, with an option for a fourth in Jansen. It doesn't make sense to just get 2-3 solid SPs, because they won't rack up enough wins to make a difference.
If, however, the trade market happens to have some appealing starting pitchers at reasonable prices, maybe I'll head down that road.
So this is where I am right now. As I get closer to the keeper deadline, and as I make transactions, I'll post updates.
Here we go with Part 2. One thing to note: this league uses non-specific pitching slots. The only difference between starting pitchers and relievers is the stats they produce. I can play up to 10 total pitchers, in any combination of starters and relievers.
PITCHERS
Jose Quintana - $11, C
I took a chance on Quintana in a pre-season trade last year. He wasn't terrible value at $6, but now that he's $11, he's definitely not on my keeper list. Plan: Release into draft.
Mike Fiers - $1, B
Fiers was actually in the same trade as Quintana, but I released him during the season, then re-acquired him off free agency for a dollar. He had a lot of ups and downs, but for $1, I'll probably take a flier. Plan: Keep if there's room.
Drew Pomeranz - $1, B
Late in the season, when I realized my best shot at getting enough points to reach 2nd place was with saves, I grabbed every closer I could. Pomeranz got a couple shots at saves late in the year, which was enough for me to go for him. But in 2016 as a back-end starter, even $1 is too much to pay. Plan: Release into draft.
Wade Davis - $6, C
After keeping Davis for $1 last year, I expected to let him go after 2015. But now he figures to be the closer all year for Kansas City, and $6 for a closer with excellent peripherals is a steal. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.
Kenley Jansen - $11, B
Jansen is probably my toughest call among pitchers. His value is certainly high, as a high-end closer. But $11 is a goodly sum. He'd probably cost $15-$18 in the draft, so I think I'll keep him, but he'll be on my trading block. Plan: Keep or trade.
Kevin Jepsen - $21, B
Jepsen was a fill-in closer who pitched well last year, but all that free agent budget I spent on him brought his contract to an ungodly number. Might pay $1 for him in the draft, but also might not. Plan: Release into draft.
A.J. Ramos - $1, B
Easy keep, one dollar for a closer is great value. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.
Shawn Tolleson - $1, B
As I said, one dollar for a closer is great value. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.
Tony Watson - $1, B
I kept Watson last year for $1 as a filler for my pitching staff. I dropped him during the season and reacquired him for $1 again, so I'm looking at a similar player situation. But my team is stronger this year than it was last year. Plan: Keep if there's room.
Joaquin Benoit - $1, B
Benoit is basically Watson except older, with a slightly higher chance of getting a few saves. So, same category. Plan: Keep if there's room.
PITCHERS - MINOR LEAGUES
Jose Berrios
Berrios is a strikeout pitcher who is going to be in spring training this year, with a chance to make the team out of spring. He's got tons of upside, and I'm definitely looking forward to seeing what he can do.
Lucas Giolito
Giolito was kept going into last season by another team, but they found themselves in a roster crunch and waived him, making him available for the midseason minor league draft. I scooped him up, and he immediately became and still is my best starting pitcher asset, even if he doesn't pitch in the majors in 2016.
Henry Owens
Owens was the only minor-leaguer on the team when I took over last offseason. He costs me nothing to keep, so I'll keep him, but he gave up 7 runs on three separate occasions. I'm not optimistic.
Jameson Taillon
Taillon was a big time Pirates pitching prospect, but he's undergone two big surgeries in two years, including Tommy John in 2014. We won't know much until he starts pitching again, but that should happen sooner than later.
KEEPER PLANS
Now that I've gone through all of my players and given each of them a "plan," it's time to start sorting out what we might actually do this season. Here are all the players I listed as possible keepers, sorted under their various designations.
Locked in as a keeper
Manny Machado, 3B - $21
Mookie Betts, OF - $10
Shin-Soo Choo, OF - $1
Wade Davis, P - $6
A.J. Ramos, P - $1
Shawn Tolleson, P - $1
Keep as long as he doesn't suffer injury setbacks
Jung Ho Kang, 3B/SS - $1
Keep or trade
Alex Rodriguez, U - $2
Kenley Jansen, P - $11
Keep if there's money
Hunter Pence, OF - $15
Keep if there's room
Chris Colabello, 1B/OF - $1
Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B - $2
Mike Fiers, P - $1
Tony Watson, P - $1
Joaquin Benoit, P - $1
Just in looking at this list, I feel like I need to put out some trade feelers. I think all of these guys have value, not to mention my eight minor league keepers. I should have enough salary space to take on an expensive and high-quality keeper hitter, so that'll be my target.
Based on my (lack of) starting pitching, I think I might be looking at another year of riding relievers and hoping to finish 3rd, waiting for my prospects to blossom into something. Obviously the draft will dictate a lot of that, with who's available and how expensive they are. But I've already got a base of at least three closers, with an option for a fourth in Jansen. It doesn't make sense to just get 2-3 solid SPs, because they won't rack up enough wins to make a difference.
If, however, the trade market happens to have some appealing starting pitchers at reasonable prices, maybe I'll head down that road.
So this is where I am right now. As I get closer to the keeper deadline, and as I make transactions, I'll post updates.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
-Rogers Hornsby
Thursday, February 4, 2016
2016 Salary Keeper Machinations - Part 1
I'm in a salary-based fantasy baseball keeper league that is probably my most fun fantasy league right now. I have other leagues with more friends, but the framework of how this league is set up really piques my interest.
Last season I finished in third place, which paid for my entry into this year's league. The league just opened up, so I'm starting to look at my options for this coming season. I like writing, and I like talking about this league, so I'm going to post my whole roster with relevant contract information, and give my thoughts about each player. If you have any input, I'm happy to hear it.
Here are some of the basic rules to help you understand how the league works.
The league is run through CBS, and uses their position eligibility rules. The scoring is 5x5 rotisserie with on-base percentage instead of batting average. There are 12 teams in the league.
During the auction draft, players are put into type A contracts at their sale price. After the first season, you can keep any player on an A contract for the same price, moving them to a B contract. After that season, you can keep players on B contracts by paying $5 more and moving them to a C contract. Players on C contracts cannot be kept.
Each team gets $280 of salary. Each team can keep up to 10 A, B, or C keepers, and up to $100 of salary. There are also minor league contracts, but they don't suffer any limitations, so they'll just be an afterthought here. I'll mention who I've got on minor league deals, but only so you have a full picture of my team.
Here we go. The players will be listed with their position eligibility and their contract status if I choose to keep them (players who just finished C-contract seasons have already been removed from my team).
*** indicates player has multiple position eligibility
John Jaso, C - $6, B
Jaso was a spot-filler for me towards the end of the season. He did a fine job of posting mediocre stats to close out my run, but he's barely worth a roster spot. Plan: Release into draft.
Carlos Santana, 1B - $30, BSantana was one of a few "high OBP" targets in my first draft. He was also 3B eligible, increasing his value. But his bat was limp, and he's just a 1B now. Plan: Release into draft.
***Chris Colabello, 1B/OF - $1, B
Colabello had an insane BABIP, so it's fair to expect that he won't be hitting .321 again. But if he hits .275 with 20 HR, $1 is a reasonable price. I've also noticed that position flexibility is pretty useful, even if it's these two positions. Plan: Keep if there's room.
Robinson Cano, 2B - $35, B
Cano was a guy in that second tier that I'd hoped to capitalize on: strong, reliable players who wouldn't cost the $50-$60 that a guy like McCutchen or Goldschmidt would cost. Well, it turned out Cano was a real disappointment. Maybe he'll bounce back. I might end up with him on my team. But not at this price. Plan: Release into draft.
***Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B - $2, B
Forsythe is a curious case. He's projected to hit about .260 with 17 HR and 6 SB, making him the 12th-rated 2B. But that means he's a started in this league (we use MI spots as well). As long as he gets playing time, he should be fine. Using one spot out of ten might be too much for him, though. Plan: Keep if there's room.
Manny Machado, 3B - $21, B
Don't need to waste brain cells on this one. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.
***Jung Ho Kang, 3B/SS - $1, B
The only hesitation I have about Kang is that he was on the shelf to end the season last year. But if he's healthy, he's more valuable than Forsythe. He's expected to return in April; that timetable works for me. Plan: Keep as long as he doesn't suffer injury setbacks.
Mookie Betts, OF - $10, C
Betts was one of a short list of holdovers from the original team I picked up before the 2015 season. He really came into his own last year, which is nice, except that this is the last year I can keep him. Ah well, nothing lasts forever. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.
Hunter Pence, OF - $15, B
Pence is a rough decision. After a lifetime of durability, he muddled through injuries all year in 2015. Despite that, his pace would've put him at 27 HR, 120 RBI, and 90 R. If he's healthy, $15 is a good price, but it's a fair chunk to spend. Plan: Keep if there's money.
Kevin Kiermaier, OF - $6, B
Kiermaier is a nice player, but $6 is too much for a guy whose claim to (minimal) fame is solid defense. Plan: Release into draft.
Jayson Werth, OF - $9, B
Werth is a 36-year-old player coming off of a pretty bad year. Maybe he bounces back a little bit, but no way am I spending $9 and a keeper slot on that. Plan: Release into draft.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF - $1, B
Choo was one of the brightest spots on my team. That I managed to get a top 25 outfielder for a dollar made it even more exciting. No question about this one; the price is oh so right. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.
Khris Davis, OF - $7, B
This is a guy with a lot of power upside, but his inconsistent play and marginal batting average make him a risky play. I think, at worst, he'll be available for $4-$6 in the draft, so $7 to keep him isn't worth it. Plan: Release into draft.
Evan Gattis, U - $25, C
Gattis was a decent play last year when he was catcher-eligible, but he played almost exclusively at DH in 2015, and is only utility eligible. That won't do. Plan: Release into draft.
Alex Rodriguez, U - $2, B
A-Rod is one of my most difficult decisions. He's only a DH now, and at 40, a decline is almost inevitable. He popped 33 homers last year, though, and that kind of power isn't common in today's game. At $2 he's a keeper, but I might dangle him to see if I can divest. Plan: Keep or trade.
*** Kyle Schwarber, C/OF
Schwarber was my first mid-season minor league draftee, and so far it looks like he'll pan out fairly well. He's already projected as a top five catcher, and if he can develop further in an improving Cubs lineup, the sky's the limit. Might just be an outfielder down the line, though.
Yoan Moncada, 2B
I acquired Moncada in a trade when I thought I was out of the running in July. Our fates were intertwined from that point, where he flourished and my team jumped up the standings. He's still probably a year away from getting to the big leagues, but he's trending very nicely.
Javier Baez, 2B
I'm not real excited about Baez at this point. He seems to be kind of a quadruple-A player; too good for the minors, but lacking the plate discipline to make it in the big leagues. Hopefully he develops an eye for the strike zone this year; next year he costs money to keep, and I can't see paying for him if it's a repeat of 2015.
Rafael Devers, 3B
Devers is probably two years from producing. He's a 19-year-old Red Sox prospect, but they say he can really hit. We'll find out down the road.
Aaron Judge, OF
Judge is the Yankees' top hitting prospect, which makes him big news. But he's 6'7", and height can be a problem for hitters (see Richie Sexson). He's highly touted, but I might try to move him. The height really does scare me.
That's the end of part 1. Part 2 will go into my pitching staff (a hodgepodge of miscreants and nobodies), and take an overall look at my team's keeper options. See you then!
Last season I finished in third place, which paid for my entry into this year's league. The league just opened up, so I'm starting to look at my options for this coming season. I like writing, and I like talking about this league, so I'm going to post my whole roster with relevant contract information, and give my thoughts about each player. If you have any input, I'm happy to hear it.
Here are some of the basic rules to help you understand how the league works.
The league is run through CBS, and uses their position eligibility rules. The scoring is 5x5 rotisserie with on-base percentage instead of batting average. There are 12 teams in the league.
During the auction draft, players are put into type A contracts at their sale price. After the first season, you can keep any player on an A contract for the same price, moving them to a B contract. After that season, you can keep players on B contracts by paying $5 more and moving them to a C contract. Players on C contracts cannot be kept.
Each team gets $280 of salary. Each team can keep up to 10 A, B, or C keepers, and up to $100 of salary. There are also minor league contracts, but they don't suffer any limitations, so they'll just be an afterthought here. I'll mention who I've got on minor league deals, but only so you have a full picture of my team.
Here we go. The players will be listed with their position eligibility and their contract status if I choose to keep them (players who just finished C-contract seasons have already been removed from my team).
*** indicates player has multiple position eligibility
HITTERS
John Jaso, C - $6, B
Jaso was a spot-filler for me towards the end of the season. He did a fine job of posting mediocre stats to close out my run, but he's barely worth a roster spot. Plan: Release into draft.
Carlos Santana, 1B - $30, BSantana was one of a few "high OBP" targets in my first draft. He was also 3B eligible, increasing his value. But his bat was limp, and he's just a 1B now. Plan: Release into draft.
***Chris Colabello, 1B/OF - $1, B
Colabello had an insane BABIP, so it's fair to expect that he won't be hitting .321 again. But if he hits .275 with 20 HR, $1 is a reasonable price. I've also noticed that position flexibility is pretty useful, even if it's these two positions. Plan: Keep if there's room.
Robinson Cano, 2B - $35, B
Cano was a guy in that second tier that I'd hoped to capitalize on: strong, reliable players who wouldn't cost the $50-$60 that a guy like McCutchen or Goldschmidt would cost. Well, it turned out Cano was a real disappointment. Maybe he'll bounce back. I might end up with him on my team. But not at this price. Plan: Release into draft.
***Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B - $2, B
Forsythe is a curious case. He's projected to hit about .260 with 17 HR and 6 SB, making him the 12th-rated 2B. But that means he's a started in this league (we use MI spots as well). As long as he gets playing time, he should be fine. Using one spot out of ten might be too much for him, though. Plan: Keep if there's room.
Manny Machado, 3B - $21, B
Don't need to waste brain cells on this one. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.
***Jung Ho Kang, 3B/SS - $1, B
The only hesitation I have about Kang is that he was on the shelf to end the season last year. But if he's healthy, he's more valuable than Forsythe. He's expected to return in April; that timetable works for me. Plan: Keep as long as he doesn't suffer injury setbacks.
Mookie Betts, OF - $10, C
Betts was one of a short list of holdovers from the original team I picked up before the 2015 season. He really came into his own last year, which is nice, except that this is the last year I can keep him. Ah well, nothing lasts forever. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.
Hunter Pence, OF - $15, B
Pence is a rough decision. After a lifetime of durability, he muddled through injuries all year in 2015. Despite that, his pace would've put him at 27 HR, 120 RBI, and 90 R. If he's healthy, $15 is a good price, but it's a fair chunk to spend. Plan: Keep if there's money.
Kevin Kiermaier, OF - $6, B
Kiermaier is a nice player, but $6 is too much for a guy whose claim to (minimal) fame is solid defense. Plan: Release into draft.
Jayson Werth, OF - $9, B
Werth is a 36-year-old player coming off of a pretty bad year. Maybe he bounces back a little bit, but no way am I spending $9 and a keeper slot on that. Plan: Release into draft.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF - $1, B
Choo was one of the brightest spots on my team. That I managed to get a top 25 outfielder for a dollar made it even more exciting. No question about this one; the price is oh so right. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.
Khris Davis, OF - $7, B
This is a guy with a lot of power upside, but his inconsistent play and marginal batting average make him a risky play. I think, at worst, he'll be available for $4-$6 in the draft, so $7 to keep him isn't worth it. Plan: Release into draft.
Evan Gattis, U - $25, C
Gattis was a decent play last year when he was catcher-eligible, but he played almost exclusively at DH in 2015, and is only utility eligible. That won't do. Plan: Release into draft.
Alex Rodriguez, U - $2, B
A-Rod is one of my most difficult decisions. He's only a DH now, and at 40, a decline is almost inevitable. He popped 33 homers last year, though, and that kind of power isn't common in today's game. At $2 he's a keeper, but I might dangle him to see if I can divest. Plan: Keep or trade.
HITTERS - MINOR LEAGUES
*** Kyle Schwarber, C/OF
Schwarber was my first mid-season minor league draftee, and so far it looks like he'll pan out fairly well. He's already projected as a top five catcher, and if he can develop further in an improving Cubs lineup, the sky's the limit. Might just be an outfielder down the line, though.
Yoan Moncada, 2B
I acquired Moncada in a trade when I thought I was out of the running in July. Our fates were intertwined from that point, where he flourished and my team jumped up the standings. He's still probably a year away from getting to the big leagues, but he's trending very nicely.
Javier Baez, 2B
I'm not real excited about Baez at this point. He seems to be kind of a quadruple-A player; too good for the minors, but lacking the plate discipline to make it in the big leagues. Hopefully he develops an eye for the strike zone this year; next year he costs money to keep, and I can't see paying for him if it's a repeat of 2015.
Rafael Devers, 3B
Devers is probably two years from producing. He's a 19-year-old Red Sox prospect, but they say he can really hit. We'll find out down the road.
Aaron Judge, OF
Judge is the Yankees' top hitting prospect, which makes him big news. But he's 6'7", and height can be a problem for hitters (see Richie Sexson). He's highly touted, but I might try to move him. The height really does scare me.
That's the end of part 1. Part 2 will go into my pitching staff (a hodgepodge of miscreants and nobodies), and take an overall look at my team's keeper options. See you then!
Friday, May 22, 2015
Favorite Past Features
I've spent some time of late looking at a variety of my previous posts. I do a lot of self-critiquing and re-reading; I find myself constantly changing old posts that nobody will probably ever read again, but they've got an apostrophe in the wrong spot, or poor word usage in another spot, and I can't let that just hang there.
I also re-read for content, and I've found a few spots that I really enjoyed re-reading, and I enjoyed writing in the first place. As I'm trying to find more topics to write about, and formats within which to write, these old posts are a good first stop. Here are a couple I really enjoyed from the past, and maybe I'll resurrect them in some form.
Is He A Keeper?
Back in the early days of the fantasy baseball keeper league, we had a lot of questions about which players were legitimate keepers, which guys were borderline, and which guys were too unreliable, too unproven, or just too unexceptional. It was a fun little mental experiment for myself to judge a player's potential upside, downside, and general value in relation to other players. It was also a way that I sort of gave my (often unsolicited) advice to my fellow owners about their players, and hashed out some of my own players as well.
The odds of this one coming back are pretty slim, as I think most of my league has caught up to (or surpassed) me as far as baseball knowledge. As a result, I'd be out of order trying to declare what other teams should do. It was a fun exercise, though, and it's a good reminder that little discussion points were a good way to churn out several medium-sized posts.
Twi-Night Doubleheader
For most of one season, I did a little weekly recap on the fantasy comings and goings of the week. Best player of the week, biggest disappointment, etc. I was so tuned in to fantasy baseball at the time, and I had a ton of downtime sitting at a computer at my job, so it was natural for me to kill time by writing about what I was paying attention to.
The Game of Thrones posts I've been doing this season are a reasonable comparison to Twi-Night Doubleheader (though much less readable for cousin Michael), in that they're weekly recaps with quick-hitter topics. I don't foresee getting back into the weekly fantasy baseball recap post game, unless it were with a partner to bounce things off of, work together, and generate fast content. If anybody's got an itch, drop me a message and we'll see what might work.
Magic Decks for Review
It's hard to say this was really a feature on the blog, since I only really got one post up for it. But the idea was that I have all these decks I've thrown together over the years that could use some tightening, some review, and some revision. And, like most intellectual exercises, crowd-sourcing can create inputs from a lot of different angles, which is important considering the sheer volume of Magic cards that exist.
That single post and its follow-up (both regarding my Landfall deck) were actually pretty useful as far as trying to put together possible ideas for how to refine the deck. So in looking back, that's something I could definitely see myself getting back to posting. I still have the decks, and I think I put most or all of them on TappedOut, so they should still be visible to make comments and offer advice. Definitely something I could see revisiting.
Mega Man Magic Set
The Mega Man Magic Set wasn't exactly a "feature," as it had a specific endpoint. Once the set was fully released, that was that, the series was concluded. That said, it generated dozens of posts, numerous comments, and a good deal of discussion, not to mention the enjoyment I had in creating the cards and writing the posts. Overall, I would rate it as one of my most successful blogging adventures.
Additionally, while I can't generate many(/any?) more posts using that particular content, there are plenty of similar types of posts I can make. Most of them will be pretty hard geeky, but that's how it goes sometimes. I like sports and I like games, and sometimes the games take the lead. Lord knows I don't feel like talking about football anytime soon.
So here are some similar ideas that I've come up with, and I'm thinking I'll try my hand at in the near future:
Anyways, that's it for this post. Just wanted to reminisce a little about some of our brighter moments, and give you guys a little insight into what goes into developing a post or feature. Until next time!
I also re-read for content, and I've found a few spots that I really enjoyed re-reading, and I enjoyed writing in the first place. As I'm trying to find more topics to write about, and formats within which to write, these old posts are a good first stop. Here are a couple I really enjoyed from the past, and maybe I'll resurrect them in some form.
Is He A Keeper?
Back in the early days of the fantasy baseball keeper league, we had a lot of questions about which players were legitimate keepers, which guys were borderline, and which guys were too unreliable, too unproven, or just too unexceptional. It was a fun little mental experiment for myself to judge a player's potential upside, downside, and general value in relation to other players. It was also a way that I sort of gave my (often unsolicited) advice to my fellow owners about their players, and hashed out some of my own players as well.
The odds of this one coming back are pretty slim, as I think most of my league has caught up to (or surpassed) me as far as baseball knowledge. As a result, I'd be out of order trying to declare what other teams should do. It was a fun exercise, though, and it's a good reminder that little discussion points were a good way to churn out several medium-sized posts.
Twi-Night Doubleheader
For most of one season, I did a little weekly recap on the fantasy comings and goings of the week. Best player of the week, biggest disappointment, etc. I was so tuned in to fantasy baseball at the time, and I had a ton of downtime sitting at a computer at my job, so it was natural for me to kill time by writing about what I was paying attention to.
The Game of Thrones posts I've been doing this season are a reasonable comparison to Twi-Night Doubleheader (though much less readable for cousin Michael), in that they're weekly recaps with quick-hitter topics. I don't foresee getting back into the weekly fantasy baseball recap post game, unless it were with a partner to bounce things off of, work together, and generate fast content. If anybody's got an itch, drop me a message and we'll see what might work.
Magic Decks for Review
It's hard to say this was really a feature on the blog, since I only really got one post up for it. But the idea was that I have all these decks I've thrown together over the years that could use some tightening, some review, and some revision. And, like most intellectual exercises, crowd-sourcing can create inputs from a lot of different angles, which is important considering the sheer volume of Magic cards that exist.
That single post and its follow-up (both regarding my Landfall deck) were actually pretty useful as far as trying to put together possible ideas for how to refine the deck. So in looking back, that's something I could definitely see myself getting back to posting. I still have the decks, and I think I put most or all of them on TappedOut, so they should still be visible to make comments and offer advice. Definitely something I could see revisiting.
Mega Man Magic Set
The Mega Man Magic Set wasn't exactly a "feature," as it had a specific endpoint. Once the set was fully released, that was that, the series was concluded. That said, it generated dozens of posts, numerous comments, and a good deal of discussion, not to mention the enjoyment I had in creating the cards and writing the posts. Overall, I would rate it as one of my most successful blogging adventures.
Additionally, while I can't generate many(/any?) more posts using that particular content, there are plenty of similar types of posts I can make. Most of them will be pretty hard geeky, but that's how it goes sometimes. I like sports and I like games, and sometimes the games take the lead. Lord knows I don't feel like talking about football anytime soon.
So here are some similar ideas that I've come up with, and I'm thinking I'll try my hand at in the near future:
- Create a D&D monster from other material
- Create a Magic card from other material
- Create another Magic set, this time using a different gaming "world"
- Create, create, create...
Anyways, that's it for this post. Just wanted to reminisce a little about some of our brighter moments, and give you guys a little insight into what goes into developing a post or feature. Until next time!
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
Top Five 2015 Baseball/Fantasy Baseball Stories So Far
Baseball presents a wide variety of surprises every year; some good, some bad. But there are some stories that just blow you away, and we've had our share in the short season so far. Because baseball goes along so well with its fantasy counterpart (and because I can't help but look at every baseball story within a fantasy context), I'll include a little fantasy spin here as well, when applicable.
1. Are the Nationals actually this bad?
I mean, obviously they're not this bad. This pace would be unsustainable for a team that didn't have top-to-bottom the best rotation in baseball. But the Nationals are a team that a lot of people, including ESPN and myself, picked to win the World Series. After tonight's come-from-behind victory over the Braves, they're 8-13, tied for last in the NL East.
I still expect their rotation to bear out and to at least notch 80-85 wins, but this early stretch has shown just how foolish it was to trade Tyler Clippard. He may not be lighting it up for the A's, but the bullpen depth was already suspect, and Yunel Escobar is utterly replaceable.
Anybody still got Rafael Soriano's phone number?
2. Dee Gordon is teaching us all an important lesson.
All throughout the preseason, you couldn't take two steps without hearing someone talk about how Dee Gordon's production was incredible for a few weeks early in the season, and then just solid the rest of the way. Most fantasy players took that to mean that his production during those "down" months was the correct representation of his skillset. A few people (like myself) saw that short explosion and had dreams of Dee Gordon shaped sugarplums dancing in their heads.
But the truth is that Gordon, like every other baseball player, can't be identified as only his hills or only his valleys. He's all of them, the whole topography of his production. So while he's blasting off right now (#14 rated player in Yahoo), his final statistics for the season will probably be somewhere around where they were last year. And that works fine for me, as a Gordon owner and someone who's always hurting for steals.
3. Ace relievers always look better early in the season than they ought to.
Now, don't take this as an invitation to try to lowball me on Wade Davis, who I own in a couple of leagues. But when you look at the top rated pitchers in Yahoo (and presumably other systems), right now, way too many of them are highly productive relievers. Davis, Andrew Miller, David Robertson, Jeurys Familia, Joakim Soria, Adam Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Boxberger, and Yimi Garcia are all rated among the top 25 pitchers. That's almost 40% of the top end.
The imbalance is inherent with the system. We want relievers to be appropriately rated at the end of the season, so we want a certain number of saves out of our relief pitchers. That brings guys like Familia and Soria to the top. Wins are one of the hardest stats to accumulate, so the guys who have lucked into a couple of wins early look (statistically) like dominant starting pitchers, albeit with limited innings.
While certain guys like Davis, Miller, Robertson, and Chapman have a history of dominance, none of them should be traded for as if they're a top 15-20 pitcher.
4. Remember when we all thought the A's were crazy for trading Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie?
We were right.
5. The Orioles and White Sox are going to play in front of absolutely nobody today.
There's not any sort of fantasy spin for this story, but it's insane. Baltimore is in such a state of disarray that the audience can't be trusted to collect in close quarters and not erupt into anarchy. I'm hopeful that things will turn for the better and soon, but in the meantime, best wishes to the Orioles and to all Baltimoreans.
1. Are the Nationals actually this bad?
I mean, obviously they're not this bad. This pace would be unsustainable for a team that didn't have top-to-bottom the best rotation in baseball. But the Nationals are a team that a lot of people, including ESPN and myself, picked to win the World Series. After tonight's come-from-behind victory over the Braves, they're 8-13, tied for last in the NL East.
I still expect their rotation to bear out and to at least notch 80-85 wins, but this early stretch has shown just how foolish it was to trade Tyler Clippard. He may not be lighting it up for the A's, but the bullpen depth was already suspect, and Yunel Escobar is utterly replaceable.
Anybody still got Rafael Soriano's phone number?
2. Dee Gordon is teaching us all an important lesson.
All throughout the preseason, you couldn't take two steps without hearing someone talk about how Dee Gordon's production was incredible for a few weeks early in the season, and then just solid the rest of the way. Most fantasy players took that to mean that his production during those "down" months was the correct representation of his skillset. A few people (like myself) saw that short explosion and had dreams of Dee Gordon shaped sugarplums dancing in their heads.
But the truth is that Gordon, like every other baseball player, can't be identified as only his hills or only his valleys. He's all of them, the whole topography of his production. So while he's blasting off right now (#14 rated player in Yahoo), his final statistics for the season will probably be somewhere around where they were last year. And that works fine for me, as a Gordon owner and someone who's always hurting for steals.
3. Ace relievers always look better early in the season than they ought to.
Now, don't take this as an invitation to try to lowball me on Wade Davis, who I own in a couple of leagues. But when you look at the top rated pitchers in Yahoo (and presumably other systems), right now, way too many of them are highly productive relievers. Davis, Andrew Miller, David Robertson, Jeurys Familia, Joakim Soria, Adam Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Boxberger, and Yimi Garcia are all rated among the top 25 pitchers. That's almost 40% of the top end.
The imbalance is inherent with the system. We want relievers to be appropriately rated at the end of the season, so we want a certain number of saves out of our relief pitchers. That brings guys like Familia and Soria to the top. Wins are one of the hardest stats to accumulate, so the guys who have lucked into a couple of wins early look (statistically) like dominant starting pitchers, albeit with limited innings.
While certain guys like Davis, Miller, Robertson, and Chapman have a history of dominance, none of them should be traded for as if they're a top 15-20 pitcher.
4. Remember when we all thought the A's were crazy for trading Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie?
We were right.
5. The Orioles and White Sox are going to play in front of absolutely nobody today.
There's not any sort of fantasy spin for this story, but it's insane. Baltimore is in such a state of disarray that the audience can't be trusted to collect in close quarters and not erupt into anarchy. I'm hopeful that things will turn for the better and soon, but in the meantime, best wishes to the Orioles and to all Baltimoreans.
Friday, March 6, 2015
2015 Fantasy Baseball - First Round Busts and Busters
Every year, fantasy baseball sees several new faces at the top of drafts, and every year a couple of last year's heroes turn into this year's zeroes. It's usually difficult to predict this sort of thing, but that's absolutely not my concern. I'm going to make some wild predictions here (potentially more bold than my "bold" predictions) about this year's first round picks, and about some players who aren't in the top two rounds this year, but I foresee making the jump.
First, let's look at who actually is a first-round pick, according to Yahoo:
Yahoo's Top Twelve Players, According to O-Rank
1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
3. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
Barring massive injury, I think these guys are safe bets to stick around at least a few years. Transcendent talents.
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers
Cabrera is interesting, because I really think he's going to do well this year, but it's very likely that he loses 3B going into next year. Probably still a first-round pick, though. He's the best hitter the league has seen since Manny Ramirez.
5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
6. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
7. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
8. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
I expect all four of these guys to remain in the first or early second rounds, depending on their relative performances and health. Goldschmidt, Stanton, and Abreu are all high end power talent, and even though people still mistrust Gomez, he's been a power-speed guy for years now. It's time to buy in.
9. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
Jones is a tough nut to crack. In a full season, he's almost a lock for .280-90-30-90. His speed is fading, and his plate discipline is zero (he walked just 19 times last year), but consistent power, average, and run production will always have value. I think he'll drop to the second round next year, but no farther than around 18th.
10. Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays
I hate thinking of Jose Bautista as "old" since he's two-and-a-half months younger than me, but the reality is that 34 is pretty old in baseball (maybe this is why it always seems to be sports fans who have midlife crises). If he stays healthy, he's probably got another year or two of top tier production, but his batting average dips in 2012 and 2013 give me pause.
11. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
I don't trust Rizzo, but he's got fair pedigree. I expect him to regress a little, but still be in the ballpark of .270 and 30 HR, and at his age, that'll keep people buying. I predict other people will have him in the first round again next year, and I predict I still won't.
12. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays
Encarnacion is like his teammate Bautista in a lot of ways. They both had slow starts to their careers, and they both appear to be top-level mashers with modest batting averages. I just don't trust Encarnacion. He has the smell of Adam Dunn to me, and that means while I expect he'll still hit with power, his dropoff in other categories will be precipitous. With a history of back ailments, I think there's a reasonable chance that Edwin could slip again this year, down to a .240-.260 hitting 1B with very good pop. On your draft boards, that's somewhere between David Ortiz (48) and Chris Carter (96).
My bets for dropping out of Yahoo's top round in 2016 are #9 Adam Jones, #10 Jose Bautista, and #12 Edwin Encarnacion. The rest I expect to stick around, again, barring massive injury.
Now for the more fun part: who's taking their spots? Since I have three guys dropping from the first round, I'm going to give you three guys to take their places. And to maximize the fun(/crazy) aspect, I'll only pick people outside of the top 25.
Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers (#36)
It's extremely difficult for a starting pitcher to get into the first round of a fantasy draft. The fact that Kershaw has been securely in the first round for multiple years is pretty remarkable. I think Darvish has that kind of next-level talent. His strikeout rate is fantastic, a must-have for a first round pitcher. While last season was cut short for him because of elbow inflammation, I think he's closer to his 2013 performance at his core. That's 2.83/1.07/.194 batting-average-against, for those of you unwilling to Google the man.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (#59)
I've never been totally wild about Joey Votto. I'm still not all the way on board with drafting guys who don't really have any speed upside; I always seem to have trouble finding steals. But in today's fantasy baseball world, batting average and run production puts you near the top of the draft. Votto has never hit lower than .297 in any season in which he played at least 100 games, and he still hits in Cincinnati, one of the better hitting ballparks out there. He may suffer from "broken heart syndrome," where people discount him because they got burned drafting him the past couple years, but I think a bounce-back is very possible, and that would put him right in the mix for the first round.
Not crazy enough for you? Alright, well how about...
Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles (#123)
If I'm being honest, I wouldn't bet much money on Machado actually breaking into the top 12 of Yahoo's O-Rank next season. That said, I think there's a ton of room for improvement here, and, just as importantly, I think the fantasy community is ready to believe in him. Machado was a top-tier prospect who's acquitted himself well in the major leagues. He's still just 22, which means there's plenty of time for him to evolve into the type of player he was projected to be. He's never been much of a speedster, but with a reasonable level of improvement, I don't think it's out of the question to see him take a 2006-Matt-Holliday-sized leap forward. A line of .310/100/30/100 is feasible, and at third base, that's first round magic.
So there you have it, my take on the first round this year and next. Stay tuned this season to see how right I was (or on the off chance I was slightly wrong, to harass me for it).
First, let's look at who actually is a first-round pick, according to Yahoo:
Yahoo's Top Twelve Players, According to O-Rank
- Mike Trout, OF, Angels
- Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
- Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
- Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
- Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
- Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
- Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
- Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
- Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays
1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
3. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
Barring massive injury, I think these guys are safe bets to stick around at least a few years. Transcendent talents.
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers
Cabrera is interesting, because I really think he's going to do well this year, but it's very likely that he loses 3B going into next year. Probably still a first-round pick, though. He's the best hitter the league has seen since Manny Ramirez.
5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
6. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
7. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
8. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
I expect all four of these guys to remain in the first or early second rounds, depending on their relative performances and health. Goldschmidt, Stanton, and Abreu are all high end power talent, and even though people still mistrust Gomez, he's been a power-speed guy for years now. It's time to buy in.
9. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
Jones is a tough nut to crack. In a full season, he's almost a lock for .280-90-30-90. His speed is fading, and his plate discipline is zero (he walked just 19 times last year), but consistent power, average, and run production will always have value. I think he'll drop to the second round next year, but no farther than around 18th.
10. Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays
I hate thinking of Jose Bautista as "old" since he's two-and-a-half months younger than me, but the reality is that 34 is pretty old in baseball (maybe this is why it always seems to be sports fans who have midlife crises). If he stays healthy, he's probably got another year or two of top tier production, but his batting average dips in 2012 and 2013 give me pause.
11. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
I don't trust Rizzo, but he's got fair pedigree. I expect him to regress a little, but still be in the ballpark of .270 and 30 HR, and at his age, that'll keep people buying. I predict other people will have him in the first round again next year, and I predict I still won't.
12. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays
Encarnacion is like his teammate Bautista in a lot of ways. They both had slow starts to their careers, and they both appear to be top-level mashers with modest batting averages. I just don't trust Encarnacion. He has the smell of Adam Dunn to me, and that means while I expect he'll still hit with power, his dropoff in other categories will be precipitous. With a history of back ailments, I think there's a reasonable chance that Edwin could slip again this year, down to a .240-.260 hitting 1B with very good pop. On your draft boards, that's somewhere between David Ortiz (48) and Chris Carter (96).
My bets for dropping out of Yahoo's top round in 2016 are #9 Adam Jones, #10 Jose Bautista, and #12 Edwin Encarnacion. The rest I expect to stick around, again, barring massive injury.
Now for the more fun part: who's taking their spots? Since I have three guys dropping from the first round, I'm going to give you three guys to take their places. And to maximize the fun(/crazy) aspect, I'll only pick people outside of the top 25.
Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers (#36)
It's extremely difficult for a starting pitcher to get into the first round of a fantasy draft. The fact that Kershaw has been securely in the first round for multiple years is pretty remarkable. I think Darvish has that kind of next-level talent. His strikeout rate is fantastic, a must-have for a first round pitcher. While last season was cut short for him because of elbow inflammation, I think he's closer to his 2013 performance at his core. That's 2.83/1.07/.194 batting-average-against, for those of you unwilling to Google the man.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (#59)
I've never been totally wild about Joey Votto. I'm still not all the way on board with drafting guys who don't really have any speed upside; I always seem to have trouble finding steals. But in today's fantasy baseball world, batting average and run production puts you near the top of the draft. Votto has never hit lower than .297 in any season in which he played at least 100 games, and he still hits in Cincinnati, one of the better hitting ballparks out there. He may suffer from "broken heart syndrome," where people discount him because they got burned drafting him the past couple years, but I think a bounce-back is very possible, and that would put him right in the mix for the first round.
Not crazy enough for you? Alright, well how about...
Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles (#123)
If I'm being honest, I wouldn't bet much money on Machado actually breaking into the top 12 of Yahoo's O-Rank next season. That said, I think there's a ton of room for improvement here, and, just as importantly, I think the fantasy community is ready to believe in him. Machado was a top-tier prospect who's acquitted himself well in the major leagues. He's still just 22, which means there's plenty of time for him to evolve into the type of player he was projected to be. He's never been much of a speedster, but with a reasonable level of improvement, I don't think it's out of the question to see him take a 2006-Matt-Holliday-sized leap forward. A line of .310/100/30/100 is feasible, and at third base, that's first round magic.
So there you have it, my take on the first round this year and next. Stay tuned this season to see how right I was (or on the off chance I was slightly wrong, to harass me for it).
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Trade String - Bartolo Colon
Note: This post uses links from baseball-reference.com. I'm still not pleased with their advertising system, as it still punishes your entire computer if you even just keep a browser window open for too long, or try to open more than one window from the site. I just wanted to provide links to some older players, and that's more easily done through Baseball Reference than through other sites.
I've always been fascinated with trades. When I was a kid, I used to trade baseball cards, not really knowing anything about their values, just swapping this guy for that guy. I remember trading a lot of nobody players (mostly non-Orioles to get Orioles), but I also remember doing trades involving cards of Gary Sheffield, Nolan Ryan, and for some reason Gregg Jefferies.
My love of trades has continued into adulthood, moving from sports cards to fantasy players, Steam games, and whatever else I've got in my life, physical or digital. When I moved back to the area from college, I remember I traded my desk, a microwave, and a bookshelf for a PS2 console, a couple accessories, and some PS2 and N64 games. I was pleased, the other guy was pleased, it was a great experience. And my interest in bartering grew.
I've also always been interested in trades that real-life sports teams make. When I was little, I remember writing a letter to the Baltimore Orioles (I don't know if I wrote it to someone in particular), listing out a number of players I thought they should trade for. I don't know if the letter ever got mailed or read, but I don't think I ever got a response. I still believe they should've traded for Julio Franco. I'll believe that 'til the day I die.
Anyways, all of this is leading into what this new "segment" will be about: trades. The question that these posts will seek to answer is, "What did they really end up getting for _______?" Mostly, it will focus on players who were involved in large trades that sent them alone from one team to another in exchange for a variety of veterans, rookies/minor leaguers, and draft picks. The articles will delve into what those assets actually were, and, if they were subsequently traded, for whom they were traded. The idea here is that when a deal is made, you create a string connecting the involved players; these posts will follow those strings to see the "end result" of those trades.
Here's our first one.
June 27, 2002: Montreal Expos Acquire Bartolo Colon
On the morning of June 27th, the MLB-owned Montreal Expos were 40-36, and Major League Baseball was under scrutiny for its management of this league asset. There were questions abound as to whether or not this arrangement was creating an unfair situation for other teams in the league; were the Expos, without an ownership group behind them, still pursuing victories as aggressively as other teams?
Perhaps as an answer to these contentions, and perhaps in a genuine attempt to make a push for the playoffs over the summer, the Expos traded a few young prospects and Lee Stevens to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon. Were they important prospects? Well, who can know?
We can, duh, that's what this is all about. Here's the full list of players involved in the trade:
Cleveland Indians trade
Oh god.
Cliff Lee was one of Cleveland's strongest starting pitchers in twenty years, going 83-48 from 2002-2009, and capturing the 2008 Cy Young award. Phillips never amounted to much for the Indians, but since being shuffled off to Cincinnati has been named to three All-Star teams, and has netted four Gold Gloves. Grady Sizemore was one of baseball's most prolific power-speed combo guys for several years, and he won a pair of Gold Gloves, although truthfully he may have been more useful as a fantasy player than a real-life player. Lee Stevens was past his prime by 2002, and didn't play in the majors beyond that season.
The problem for the Indians, of course, is that they didn't make the most of these assets. As the other Joe will constantly point out, Cleveland has a notorious history of poor player evaluations, and the fact that they couldn't find a way to get Brandon Phillips more than 12 games between 2004 and 2005 is criminal. They traded him to the Reds for a player to be named, who ended up being Jeff Stevens. If the name doesn't ring a bell, don't worry. He was a small-time reliever who didn't play in the majors until 2009...with the Cubs.
They did have four really good years with Grady Sizemore, and four-and-a-half with Cliff Lee. Sizemore suffered a variety of injuries and missed the 2012 and 2013 seasons altogether and being granted free agency by Cleveland. He signed with the Red Sox last offseason, played up and down for a couple months and was released. He caught on with the Phillies, and figures to be in a platoon or serving as a 4th outfielder for them next year.
Lee was traded along with Ben Francisco to the Phillies in a deadline deal that brought back Carlos Carrasco as well as three non-factor players (Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson. Carrasco was supposed to be the jewel of the deal, but didn't produce right away. Things are finally looking up a little bit after five years; he pitched in middle- and late-relief during the dog days of summer last year, and finished strong and back in the rotation. He's still under his rookie contract until 2018, so the Indians have some time to figure out if he's for real.
What about those 2002 Expos? They finished 83-79 and missed the playoffs. Colon went 10-4 with 3.31/1.32 averages, fine numbers, but not nearly as good as they were with the Indians prior to the trade. At the end of the season, Montreal traded Colon and minor leaguer Jorge Nunez to the White Sox for Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, and Jeff Liefer, none of whom had a noticeably positive impact on the Expos.
This was a curious case, where one of the most valuable pieces (Phillips) ended up being particularly valuable, but not for the team he was originally traded to. Still, the Indians were able to get four great years of production from Sizemore and Lee in exchange for an over-performing starting pitcher.
Endgame Winner: Cleveland Indians
(sub-winner: Cincinnati Reds)
I've always been fascinated with trades. When I was a kid, I used to trade baseball cards, not really knowing anything about their values, just swapping this guy for that guy. I remember trading a lot of nobody players (mostly non-Orioles to get Orioles), but I also remember doing trades involving cards of Gary Sheffield, Nolan Ryan, and for some reason Gregg Jefferies.
My love of trades has continued into adulthood, moving from sports cards to fantasy players, Steam games, and whatever else I've got in my life, physical or digital. When I moved back to the area from college, I remember I traded my desk, a microwave, and a bookshelf for a PS2 console, a couple accessories, and some PS2 and N64 games. I was pleased, the other guy was pleased, it was a great experience. And my interest in bartering grew.
I've also always been interested in trades that real-life sports teams make. When I was little, I remember writing a letter to the Baltimore Orioles (I don't know if I wrote it to someone in particular), listing out a number of players I thought they should trade for. I don't know if the letter ever got mailed or read, but I don't think I ever got a response. I still believe they should've traded for Julio Franco. I'll believe that 'til the day I die.
Anyways, all of this is leading into what this new "segment" will be about: trades. The question that these posts will seek to answer is, "What did they really end up getting for _______?" Mostly, it will focus on players who were involved in large trades that sent them alone from one team to another in exchange for a variety of veterans, rookies/minor leaguers, and draft picks. The articles will delve into what those assets actually were, and, if they were subsequently traded, for whom they were traded. The idea here is that when a deal is made, you create a string connecting the involved players; these posts will follow those strings to see the "end result" of those trades.
Here's our first one.
June 27, 2002: Montreal Expos Acquire Bartolo Colon
On the morning of June 27th, the MLB-owned Montreal Expos were 40-36, and Major League Baseball was under scrutiny for its management of this league asset. There were questions abound as to whether or not this arrangement was creating an unfair situation for other teams in the league; were the Expos, without an ownership group behind them, still pursuing victories as aggressively as other teams?
Perhaps as an answer to these contentions, and perhaps in a genuine attempt to make a push for the playoffs over the summer, the Expos traded a few young prospects and Lee Stevens to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon. Were they important prospects? Well, who can know?
We can, duh, that's what this is all about. Here's the full list of players involved in the trade:
Cleveland Indians trade
- Bartolo Colon
- Tim Drew
- Cliff Lee
- Brandon Phillips
- Grady Sizemore
- Lee Stevens
Oh god.
Cliff Lee was one of Cleveland's strongest starting pitchers in twenty years, going 83-48 from 2002-2009, and capturing the 2008 Cy Young award. Phillips never amounted to much for the Indians, but since being shuffled off to Cincinnati has been named to three All-Star teams, and has netted four Gold Gloves. Grady Sizemore was one of baseball's most prolific power-speed combo guys for several years, and he won a pair of Gold Gloves, although truthfully he may have been more useful as a fantasy player than a real-life player. Lee Stevens was past his prime by 2002, and didn't play in the majors beyond that season.
The problem for the Indians, of course, is that they didn't make the most of these assets. As the other Joe will constantly point out, Cleveland has a notorious history of poor player evaluations, and the fact that they couldn't find a way to get Brandon Phillips more than 12 games between 2004 and 2005 is criminal. They traded him to the Reds for a player to be named, who ended up being Jeff Stevens. If the name doesn't ring a bell, don't worry. He was a small-time reliever who didn't play in the majors until 2009...with the Cubs.
They did have four really good years with Grady Sizemore, and four-and-a-half with Cliff Lee. Sizemore suffered a variety of injuries and missed the 2012 and 2013 seasons altogether and being granted free agency by Cleveland. He signed with the Red Sox last offseason, played up and down for a couple months and was released. He caught on with the Phillies, and figures to be in a platoon or serving as a 4th outfielder for them next year.
Lee was traded along with Ben Francisco to the Phillies in a deadline deal that brought back Carlos Carrasco as well as three non-factor players (Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson. Carrasco was supposed to be the jewel of the deal, but didn't produce right away. Things are finally looking up a little bit after five years; he pitched in middle- and late-relief during the dog days of summer last year, and finished strong and back in the rotation. He's still under his rookie contract until 2018, so the Indians have some time to figure out if he's for real.
What about those 2002 Expos? They finished 83-79 and missed the playoffs. Colon went 10-4 with 3.31/1.32 averages, fine numbers, but not nearly as good as they were with the Indians prior to the trade. At the end of the season, Montreal traded Colon and minor leaguer Jorge Nunez to the White Sox for Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, and Jeff Liefer, none of whom had a noticeably positive impact on the Expos.
This was a curious case, where one of the most valuable pieces (Phillips) ended up being particularly valuable, but not for the team he was originally traded to. Still, the Indians were able to get four great years of production from Sizemore and Lee in exchange for an over-performing starting pitcher.
Endgame Winner: Cleveland Indians
(sub-winner: Cincinnati Reds)
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Baseball Essay
A few weeks ago, I sent in an application to MLB.com for some dream job offer they had. I apparently had waited too long, and there was a second part to the application that I didn't have time for, but I wrote an essay they asked for. Below is that essay. The prompt was "Talk about why you like baseball."
I went to my first baseball game when I was 7 years old. My aunt and uncle had just gotten married, and didn't yet have any children, so they invited me and my cousin to come with them to see our hometown Orioles play host to the Tigers. This was during the Orioles' historically awful 1988 season, but I didn't know enough about baseball to realize that when I saw them win the game, I was seeing a rarity.
I think it's fair to say that I was hooked right away. Seeing a baseball field live for the first time was tremendous, and I still get goose bumps every time I walk out from the concourse into a stadium. There’s no greener grass than outfield grass. But the most distinct memory I have from the game was when Jack Morris was pulled for a reliever, the song "Hit the Road Jack" came on the loudspeaker. I thought it was the coolest thing in the world that they had found this song that perfectly fit the game scenario, and sang along loudly, as only a 7-year-old can.
As I've grown, while I still appreciate the beauty of a baseball field, the thing I find most striking about a baseball game is the intensity of each pitch. More than any other team sport, baseball gives you the direct confrontation of two wills, pitcher versus hitter. In a close game, the tension of each pitch is almost magical. Fifteen seconds of plotting and planning by the pitcher and catcher, the deep breath, and then everything crescendos into that one moment when the hitter starts to offer at the pitch. For that split-second, literally anything can happen.
I guess maybe that’s why I like baseball so much: possibility. At the beginning of every season, we remind ourselves that, hey, the Marlins have a couple World Series rings. And, remember back in 1991 when the Twins and Braves both went worst-to-first to meet in the Fall Classic? On April 1st, every team has a shot. You don’t get that same feeling in football, or even basketball, despite the fact that more than half of the NBA makes the playoffs.
One last thing about baseball that I think sets it apart from the other team sports is its ability to withstand its fantasy counterpart. I’ve played pretty much every fantasy sport out there, but baseball is the only sport that, for me, has remained interesting to me in both the real game and the fantasy game. If anything, fantasy baseball has made me a more broad baseball fan. I knew about Ryan Braun before he’d ever played a game. The case was the same with Clayton Kershaw, Evan Longoria, and Tim Lincecum. Seeing these super-prospects turn into major league superstars gives them a story in my mind; I’ve watched them from the beginning.
PS: I know the ending is a little abrupt; they had a word limit, and I was right up against it.
I went to my first baseball game when I was 7 years old. My aunt and uncle had just gotten married, and didn't yet have any children, so they invited me and my cousin to come with them to see our hometown Orioles play host to the Tigers. This was during the Orioles' historically awful 1988 season, but I didn't know enough about baseball to realize that when I saw them win the game, I was seeing a rarity.
I think it's fair to say that I was hooked right away. Seeing a baseball field live for the first time was tremendous, and I still get goose bumps every time I walk out from the concourse into a stadium. There’s no greener grass than outfield grass. But the most distinct memory I have from the game was when Jack Morris was pulled for a reliever, the song "Hit the Road Jack" came on the loudspeaker. I thought it was the coolest thing in the world that they had found this song that perfectly fit the game scenario, and sang along loudly, as only a 7-year-old can.
As I've grown, while I still appreciate the beauty of a baseball field, the thing I find most striking about a baseball game is the intensity of each pitch. More than any other team sport, baseball gives you the direct confrontation of two wills, pitcher versus hitter. In a close game, the tension of each pitch is almost magical. Fifteen seconds of plotting and planning by the pitcher and catcher, the deep breath, and then everything crescendos into that one moment when the hitter starts to offer at the pitch. For that split-second, literally anything can happen.
I guess maybe that’s why I like baseball so much: possibility. At the beginning of every season, we remind ourselves that, hey, the Marlins have a couple World Series rings. And, remember back in 1991 when the Twins and Braves both went worst-to-first to meet in the Fall Classic? On April 1st, every team has a shot. You don’t get that same feeling in football, or even basketball, despite the fact that more than half of the NBA makes the playoffs.
One last thing about baseball that I think sets it apart from the other team sports is its ability to withstand its fantasy counterpart. I’ve played pretty much every fantasy sport out there, but baseball is the only sport that, for me, has remained interesting to me in both the real game and the fantasy game. If anything, fantasy baseball has made me a more broad baseball fan. I knew about Ryan Braun before he’d ever played a game. The case was the same with Clayton Kershaw, Evan Longoria, and Tim Lincecum. Seeing these super-prospects turn into major league superstars gives them a story in my mind; I’ve watched them from the beginning.
PS: I know the ending is a little abrupt; they had a word limit, and I was right up against it.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
2011 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Draft Analysis
Eddie beat me to the punch, but here's my draft analysis.
Those Guys
Those Guys
- Best pick: Carlos Marmol (1.1)
As I've said before, sometimes the easiest pick is still the best pick. Blake Griffin was a great pick, and so is Marmol. - Worst pick: Aubrey Huff (7.1)
Huff doesn't strike me as a guy with a ton of appealing upside. While the 7th round isn't early per se, I'd have liked to see the Guys go after some younger players. Luke Scott and Carlos Lee are similar players, and both went three rounds later. - Overall Draft Grade: B-
The whole draft seemed like a draft by a team that felt it was ready to compete: two closers early, Vlad Guerrero and Tim Hudson in the 4th and 5th, and more veterans to fill in the lineup/rotation. A good fit for some teams, but Those Guys seem at least a year away. I would've liked to see more risks, more youth.
- Best pick: Carl Pavano (14.3)
Pavano's had more bad years than good ones, but seems to have found a home in Minnesota. Can you trust him? Probably not. But landing a guy who could be as good as Tim Hudson in the last round is nice value. - Worst pick: Carlos Quentin (6.3)
I just hate him. - Overall Draft Grade: C
So much of this draft relies on the first two guys, neither of whom is a sure thing. But, if Carlos Santana grows up fast, and Pablo Sandoval bounces back, the draft could be looking a lot better in 2 months. And, like Eddie said, Vandelay used their draft picks to dramatically upgrade their keepers.
- Best pick: Austin Jackson (11.2)
I see him as better-hitting Curtis Granderson with a little less pop. Eight rounds later, that sounds good. - Worst pick: Paul Konerko (2.2)
It's not that Konerko is some nightmare player, or a bad bet. He's a consistent veteran power source. I just know I didn't want to take him there, and I was frustrated when I did. - Overall Draft Grade: B+
I like my balance between young players and proven commodities. It sounds like Drew Storen is having about the worst spring training possible, but other than him, I'm excited to see how things pan out.
- Best pick: Adam Jones (9.4)
After 2009, Jones was a mega-hyped star-in-the-making. You're telling me that after a similar 2010, we've suddenly given up on him? Kudos to the Rangers for swooping in. - Worst pick: Chad Billingsley (2.4)
Initially this was going to be Gio Gonzalez. Then I realized Billingsley is similar to Gonzalez, but got picked five rounds earlier. So there you go. - Overall Draft Grade: B+
The early picks were a little bland, but I completely loved the back half of their draft. Tabata and Jones specifically were really good value.
- Best pick: Brett Gardner (3.5)
A lot of people are going to disagree with me here, but the rumors of Gardner leading off make a lot of sense. And if he's there, Gardner's a prize. - Worst pick - Tim Stauffer (6.5)
If I'm being perfectly honest, I don't know enough about Stauffer to really dismiss him. I see he's a former first round pick, #4 overall in 2003. But 2003 was a while ago. I could see Stauffer not being drafted at all, which means the sixth round is way too early. - Overall Draft Grade: C-
I just wasn't excited about most of the guys the Heroes picked up in the draft. Gardner's a nice player, and several of his guys should be solid, but nobody gets me excited.
- Best pick: Trevor Cahill (4.6)
Cahill factored into keeper discussions for his former team, the Heroes. The fact that the DamKnights were able to scoop him up in the fourth was a nice surprise for them. - Worst pick: Nick Markakis (2.6)
I used to have Markakis. He was part of my championship squad. But with 138 doubles and only 50 homers over the past three years, it's starting to look like he might just have warning track power. - Overall Draft Grade: C
I like a lot of the later pieces, but the early picks seemed to go way too safe. Bryce Harper is a nice pickup, though.
- Best pick: Homer Bailey (9.7)
Post All-Star break numbers: 10 starts, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 59 Ks in 58.1 IP. And how's this for a surprise: Bailey's still only 25. - Worst pick - Adam Lind (6.7)
I feel similar to Lind as I feel about Huff. The difference is that Lind at least has a crazy good season in his recent history. Still, I think the sixth round is too early to be taking a flier on a guy who could just be a .260/20/80 player. - Overall Draft Grade: A-
A lot of responsible picks by the SexyParties, with enough pizazz sprinkled in to keep things exciting. The lack of saves is a temporary concern, but it's always a concern, even if you draft a few closers.
- Best pick: Brandon League (13.8)
It's always nice when you can get some value out of your very late picks, and League is a nice pull. I don't expect a season of production out of him, but he could steal some saves while David Aardsma recovers. - Worst pick - Carlos Pena (7.8)
I haven't made my distaste for Pena a secret. Plus, the Pronks really just needed another potential 20/20 guy. Jose Tabata, Adam Jones, and Torii Hunter were all still available. - Overall Draft Grade: B
I don't think the Pronks got great value anywhere, but they got decent value and pretty much every pick. That sort of performance gives us a B on the report card.
- Best pick: Rajai Davis (10.9)
I don't think Davis is a fantastic real-life baseball player, but with an everyday opportunity, you can count on a lot of steals and a solid average. Good pickup. - Worst pick: Ricky Romero (4.9)
I don't like that he's being thrust into the #1 starter role, I don't like that he pitches in the AL East, in Toronto, and overall I just don't like him. I liked both of the next two picks (Colby Lewis and Phil Hughes) better than Romero. - Overall Draft Grade: B-
It was a pretty boring draft by the AutoWreckers. That usually means solid picks, and they were, but I think they could've had a little more fun.
- Best pick: Chris Young (12.10)
He's got some injury history, but he's generally been very good when healthy. The Mets are a bloodbath, but he might be a fine starter this year. - Worst pick: Howie Kendrick (11.10)
It's kind of tough to declare an eleventh round pick as a "bad pick," but Kendrick seems like a minimally valuable player. I just don't like spending a draft pick (any draft pick) on a guy whose most valuable asset is being a .295-hitting second baseman. - Overall Draft Grade: B-
I like the offense they kept, but look at the starters they drafted: Jaime Garcia, Jordan Zimmermann, Johan Santana, Chris Young, Carlos Zambrano. Would've liked to see them find someone with a little less volatility...anyone.
- Best pick: Juan Pierre (9.11)
I'm learning that I seem to like speed picks, with Gardner, Davis, and now Pierre. But it's a tough task to find enough speed when just putting together talent. Having a 50-steal weapon like Pierre in your arsenal gives you a nice way to make up ground. - Worst pick: Josh Beckett (3.11)
Beckett's a nice enough player, with upside and downside, as most players have. But I feel like I'd have been happier with a lot of the pitchers who went in the next couple rounds (Matusz, Cahill, Matt Garza, Lewis, Hughes, John Danks, Ian Kennedy). - Overall Draft Grade: A-
I really didn't think much of the Beckett pick, but the Suspects got really good value at pretty much every other pick. The two catcher picks were a little mystifying, but individually, even they were alright.
- Best pick: Lance Berkman (12.12)
Berkman's 2008 line: .312, 114 R, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 18 SB. I trust any lineup with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday to give a guy like Berkman a good chance to succeed. See Ryan Ludwick. - Worst pick - Geovany Soto (4.12) / Manny Ramirez (9.12)
The Enforcers let us all know that Soto was a mistake pick, so while it was definitely their worst pick, I figured I should pick another. Ramirez was great in 2008, but since then he's seemed to just not have his head on straight. Tampa's lineup isn't as good as you might think; I have trouble seeing Manny bounce back. - Overall Draft Grade: C+
The Soto error really hurt the flow (and caliber) of their draft, but they came back to find some nice players. I think they found some good pieces, though, particularly Gordon Beckham, Aramis Ramirez, and Berkman, along with some decent upside in Mike Moustakas and Domonic Brown.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Middle Earth Draft Review: 2011
Joey wrote up draft grades last year and I thought it was pretty neat to see another person's opinion on the draft. I picked a best and worse pick and also assigned a grade. I think overall I was pretty hard with grades. No one received an A or A+. I thought to receive a grade that high I had to be blown away by value with ever pick. Also if you have one arm or beat me out for first I probably knocked you down a few. Get over it.
Those Guys:
- Best Pick - Carlos Marmol (1.1). As the attempted trade right as keeper lists demonstrates, Marmol is a keeper talent. His k/9 is one of the highest baseball has ever seen.
- Worse Pick - Aubrey Huff (7.1). I understand the big post season leading into a big year idea, however with OF, 1B, and Util full and only 3 SP on the roster at this point I think getting an SP might have been a better pick.
- Grade: B- : I like the early picks of Marmol, Rivera, and Prado. However after the Ervin Santana pick I was not a huge huge fan.
Vandelay Industries
- Best pick - Carlos Santana (1.3). In my mind, with Wainwright out for the season, Vandelay needed to go young and upside. That is what this pick did. He gives a chance for a lot of production out of a weak position and a keeper for years to come.
- Worse Pick - Chris Coghlan (12.2) I know Drew grew up playing Dabl with Chris so maybe thats why he picked him. A pretty impressive rookie campaign was followed up by a so-so 2nd year. He should improve on his numbers but without a ton of speed or power there is limited upside.
- Grade C+ : You can look at Drew's draft and not be impressed by the talent but, many high picks were traded to beef up his keepers. While the draft suffered the additions of Weeks, Ubaldo, Miggy, and Greinke set him up for years to come.
Riders of Rohan
- Best Pick - Brett Myers (6.2) Brett Myers has always had the talent to be a very reliable fantasy starter. Will he get a lot of wins... No, but solid K and ERA numbers are likely.
- Worse Pick - Rafeal Furcal (3.3) Maybe people would argue with SS being so swallow this pick needed to be made. I'm someone who never pays for position. Furcal has played over 100 games once in last three years. Rather have a closer and go with Scutaro as starter.
- B- : Its not that I hate any of the picks Joe made. I just didn't love any of them either. Maybe they are just not my kind of players but with 2nd pick I was left wanting more.
Dunedain Rangers
- Best Pick - Madison Bumgarner (5.4). I think Hughes over Bumgarner may be the choice I am least happy with in my draft. With a weak hitting division and good stuff I see Bumgarner being slightly better across the board other than wins.
- Worse Pick -Angel Pagan (6.4). Pagan had good numbers last year with close to 40 steals. However his 2nd half was weak with .264 avg and .304 OBP. I think his real production falls closer to his 2nd half.
- Grade A- : I liked this draft a lot. Garrett was able to identify and acquire a lot of talent. Bumgarner, Gio, Tabalta, Jones, and Jennings are all guys with upside. Add in solid value picks of Cuddyer, Edwin Jackson, Kelly Johnson, and you have a very good draft.
Howards Hero's
- Best Pick - Mike Napoli (4.5) During the draft I did not care for this pick at all. However looking at his situation I think he will get more AB in Texas. He also kills the ball in Texas with a HR/AB of 6.6. 30HR upside at C... yea that sounds like a good pick.
- Worse Pick - Ian Desmond (3.9) This goes back to the problem I had with the Furcal pick. However at least Joey started a run (three ss taken round 3) Nick finished it. I hate finishing runs. There was not be another SS taken for 4 rounds.
- Grade B : I wasn't blown away by the Stauffer or Desmond selections (probably NL MVP candidates after saying that) but other than that Nick was able to get good young starting pitchers and a lot of saves. Also Bedard.... come on this is his year. Solid all around draft.
Dam Knight
- Best Pick- Bryce Harper (13.6). Will he play? Maybe not. But with a young team and a 2nd to last round pick whats the risk? All upside and could lead to a steal in years to come.
- Worse Pick- Brian Fuentes (11.6). Obviously the injury news with Bailey has changed the perception of this pick however looking at this at the time of the pick I think a good middle reliever in the 11th round seemed like a random pick
- Grade C+ : I liked several picks a lot: Harper, Peavy, and Scott. However the rest of the draft had more stable guys than upside. With a young rebuilding team I would like to see more risks. Harper was a start but I wanted a little more.
Stewies SexyParties
- Best Pick - Carlos Lee (10.7). I've heard everything you have. He doesn't work out, terrible commitment etc. However for a guy to hit below .300 for the first time in five years and it to be 60 pts below seems like an outlier. Plus with such a late pick even if he's 25 90 again its solid value.
- Worse Pick - Rafael Soriano (7.7). I have come around to the whole solid relief innings over the past few years. And I do believe that Soriano will give you that. However with closers (Nunez, Gregg) and SP (Zimmerman, Chacin, Floyd) it seemed a little early for him.
- Grade A- : I hate you Mike Plundo... but God Dammit do I respect you. Solid picks from start to finish, really only Soriano pick out of place. I like Lee, Garza and Granderson among others.
Akron Pronks
- Best Pick - Brett Anderson (3.8). Anderson was very good when he was healthy last year. I worry a little because 30% of his starts were vs Sea but even taking that into account his numbers were good. Going into keeper lists I had him just outside my top 8. Mandi got him after 44 other players were selected. Injury will decide how this pick is viewed but at the moment I like it.
- Worse Pick- Carlos Pena (7.8) "Am I really this desperate for power"... "Akron Pronks select Carlos Pena 1B CHC." What a fateful 30 seconds. I hate low avg guys. I feel like avg is the toughest thing to project and because of that the hardest to pick up during season. I think the .197 avg would have scared people away for several rounds. As principal Skinner says, "Prove me wrong kids... Prove me wrong"
- Grade B : I liked a lot of what Mandi did. I think Broxton has a small place in his heart and was picked a little early but he backed it up with Kuo later. In my opinion Pena is a brain fart on an otherwise very successful draft.
Mercer Autowreckers
- Best Pick - Jhoulys Chacin (7.9). With any Colorado pitcher there is a ceiling. However with a 130+ ip and a good ERA and K rate it looks like he might be the real deal. I think he will take a step back overall. Expect flashes of 7 IP 9 K games with the occasional clunker. Still a solid value at round 7.
- Worse Pick - David Aardsma (8.9). When making this pick I think Chip thought he was healthy.... which is not the case. If he comes back in May it won't be a bad pick but with injury there is always a cause for concern.
- Grade C+ : Overall good. However I look over Chip's draft and only see one maybe two guys that have keeper upside. Added stable talent to a very talented keeper list.
Feisty Mosquitoes
- Best Pick - Chris Young (12.10) Chris Young was very good in his short season (including 2 away from Petco) with SD last year. Is there a chance he breaks down after 50-75 IP? Yes. But at round 12 to get a chance at a solid starter with a team lacking in that department I think it was a very good pick.
- Worse Pick - Howie Kendrick (11.10) In the eleventh round you really can't be too hard on any pick. However with the makeup of the mosquitoes I found it odd to pick Kendrick in this spot. Phillips is young and healthy and 1B was open. I think Berkman or Laroche would have been better options to start at 1B. (My first pick here was Chapman.... but who am I to knock someone taking a young guy with high upside. :) )
- Grade B- : I like the talent but Mosquitoes are banking on finding a lot SP on waiver wire. I'm not in love with Garcia and almost every other pitcher is coming over a serious injury or has injury concerns. However without risk there is no reward.
The Usual Suspects
- Best Pick - Michael Pineda \ John Lackey (13.11 14.11) I like both these picks for difference reasons. I wanted get some solid depth to the back of my rotation.
- Pineda was one of the top prospect pitchers on my board. He tore through AA last year and has dynamic stuff. There is a question of getting on the roster but with a solid spring I think he might get a chance.
- In Lackey I saw a perfect bounce back pick. He has always been a solid pitcher that gets wins. If I avoid starts bad matchups (vs NYY etc) I think I can get a good amount out of this last round pick.
- Worse Pick- Miguel Montero (7.11). I did something I always hate to do... I paid for position. Don't get me wrong I think a healthy Montero could hit 18 and 70 over a season but I don't know that I needed to pay a 7th round pick for it. Next catcher taken was Jesus Montero... by me. Did I get the last catcher on a tier or just over pay?
- Grade B+ : Probably closer to a B- with objective critic but I like my guys... that's why I picked them. I would have done a few things differently but I like my depth a SP and flexibility to have 50+ SB guy backing up OF. Hill is a risk but with such a late pick not a lot to pay if it works out.
Cleveland Enforcers
- Best Pick - Lance Berkman (12.12) St. Louis seems like a perfect place for Berkman to rebound. Lance struggled last year between Hou and NY. Was that age and injury catching up with him? Maybe but with such a late pick I like the upside.
- Worse Pick - Geovany Soto (4.12) Joey later told me that this was a mistake pick by Mike. Just like with Chip he would probably be first to say its not his favorite.
- Grade B : Enforcers went much younger than I thought he needed to. Carrying two catchers and possibly 2 minor leaguers could put a strain on the roster. Keeper SP will need a repeat of last year or could be an area of need.
I didn't see any team really make bonehead picks or anyone pull away from the league. The difference between a C+ and a B is probably only my personal feeling on players. Without a title to my name what the hell do I know. Every year I think the draft its harder and harder to get an advantage.
Any comments on draft? Did it occur too early or late? Miss pre-draft?
Good Luck in the upcoming season.
Friday, March 11, 2011
2011 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Keeper Analysis
I did this last year, and it was fun, and a good exercise for me, so I'm doing it again. I'll be assigning point values to each team's eight keepers. The max value for any one player is 10, the minimum is 0, so the maximum total keeper score is 80. We'll go in draft order.
One note: there was a single trade between the submission of keeper lists and the draft. After some debate, I've decided to rate the keeper lists AFTER the trade. That is, these are the keeper lists as they stood going into the draft.
Here we go.
Those Guys
Here are the standings in order of total points, along with the change from last year (and here's a link to last year's article, for your reference):
One note: there was a single trade between the submission of keeper lists and the draft. After some debate, I've decided to rate the keeper lists AFTER the trade. That is, these are the keeper lists as they stood going into the draft.
Here we go.
Those Guys
- Adrian Gonzalez, 1B - 10 points
As I suggested last year, leaving San Diego was going to be a boon for him. Now that he's gone (and into one of the best lineups in baseball), I expect big things. - Alex Rodriguez, 3B - 8 points
He's getting a little older, and his production has slipped a bit, but he's still one of the most consistently productive players in fantasy. - Mike Stanton, OF - 5 points
I don't love him this year, but he looks to have Adam Dunn upside, and in a keeper league, you bet a lot on upside. - Shane Victorino, OF - 5 points
He's a speed guy who pitches in on run production and a little bit on power. And his lineup is stacked. - Bobby Abreu, OF - 4 points
Even a slight bounce back on batting average would make Abreu a big time asset this year. But, long term, it's unlikely he produces enough for long enough to be justified. - Josh Johnson, SP - 7 points
He had a career year last year, but you've got to be a little cautious with a guy who's missed as much time as Johnson. Still, the ability is there. - Jonathan Sanchez, SP - 4 points
I drafted Sanchez, so obviously I'm a fan. He also had a career year, but the strikeouts have always been great. No reason to think he can't build on last year and be solid again. - Daniel Hudson, SP - 4 points
He was utterly dominant after being traded to the Diamondbacks. He's got a very limited track record, but there are reasons to be excited about this youngster.
- Prince Fielder, 1B - 7 points
The power is there, and it will be there, but he's kind of tough to project outside of that. And he's also kind of tough to project within that. As in, will he hit 35, or will he hit 48? - Ian Kinsler, 2B - 6 points
So much potential, and some of it realized, but the constant injuries are beginning to wear on fantasy owners. Me, mostly. - Evan Longoria, 3B - 10 points
He's an across-the-board producer at a non-outfield position; that makes him pretty damn good. - Matt Kemp, OF - 8 points
The attitude concerns are there, but so it a plethora of talent. Power, speed, average, the whole package could be in there, somewhere. - Jose Bautista, 3B/OF - 5 points
Will he be able to repeat his power explosion from 2010? Probably not. But golly, he was good last year. - Alex Rios, OF - 6 points
Ozzie Guillen's infatuation with the stolen base should continue to prove useful for Rios owners. - Jon Lester, SP - 8 points
Great strikeouts, great wins, good averages. - Clayton Kershaw, SP - 7 points
Maybe even better than Lester, but he still has trouble getting decisions. Eventually, though, I'd expect him to figure it out.
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B - 10 points
Alcohol questions aside, Cabrera is legitimately the best hitter in the American League. - Rickie Weeks, 2B - 6 points
Weeks is impossible to value in all circumstances. Six points just seemed like the most reasonable "I don't know" amount - Elvis Andrus, SS - 4 points
If shortstop wasn't so weak, Andrus would rate lower. He's really a two-category producer at this point: runs and steals. - Ichiro Suzuki, OF - 4 points
Take Andrus, add in batting average, but remove SS eligibility, and you've got Ichiro. Something tells me he'll get some more RBIs this year, though. - Zack Greinke, SP - 6 points
He's in a situation considerably better than he was in Kansas City, and the talent is all there for a rebound...or a meltdown. Should be fun to watch either way. - Ubaldo Jimenez, SP - 7 points
Ridiculous first half, solid second half. Similar overall numbers are pretty reasonable, though. - Yovani Gallardo, SP - 5 points
Awesome strikeout numbers, but he lets an awful lot of guys get on base. Something's going to give eventually, one way or the other. - Adam Wainwright, SP - 1 point
I'm less negative on this keep than other people, but it's definitely a tough one. He's a superstar pitcher, but when you KNOW he's not playing this year...though call.
- Buster Posey, C/1B - 6 points
I like Posey. But he's getting drafted in the 3rd round based on two-thirds of a season of solid production. I want to see more before I invest that kind of pick. - Adam Dunn, 1B - 4 points
Defense doesn't count, so that's good. And he's one of the safest picks in the game. - Adrian Beltre, 3B - 4 points
He hit .334 in 2004, then hit .255, .268, .276, .266, and .265 before hitting .321 last year. I'm not paying for a .300 average, and without that, he's just a decent third baseman. - Hunter Pence, OF - 5 points
He seems to get undervalued, but getting 25 HR and 14 SB with a .282 average in back to back seasons seems pretty decent to me. - Jay Bruce, OF - 4 points
He dramatically improved his batting average, but his power rate slipped. If he can ever put it all together, he'll be great, but I'm not holding my breath. - Dan Haren, SP - 6 points
He had trouble early last season, but bounced back in a big way after being traded to the Angels. I'd count on 3.00, 1.15, 175 Ks and 15 wins. - Jered Weaver, SP - 7 points
He's becoming less and less hittable each year. I like that kind of trend. - Neftali Feliz, SP/RP - 4 points
I like Feliz at closer because he's a known commodity there, but if he can translate his success to starting pitching, his value goes up.
- Ryan Howard, 1B - 8 points
He's basically the same as Prince Fielder, except you trust him a little more because of his crazy good lineup - Mark Teixeira, 1B - 8 points
I'm a believer in Teixeira. I know he's been up and down in New York, but I just can't see him not succeeding. - Dan Uggla, 2B - 8 points
I tried to tell you all, Uggla's the man. A slide down to about .265 wouldn't shock me, but 30 HR and 90 runs and RBIs at second base is effin' good. - Mark Reynolds, 3B - 3 points
I don't know, maybe he'll be good? He's the biggest question mark on a team full of them. - Jacoby Ellsbury, OF - 6 points
If he can stay healthy, I'd expect 60 steals and 100 runs, with a .300-ish average. - Matt Cain, SP - 5 points
He's evolved into a nice little pitcher. And, he won't have to match up against other aces, which is always nice. - Wandy Rodriguez, SP - 3 points
Wandy's a tough guy to figure out. But at this point, I see him as just a useful pitcher...not so much a keeper. - (no 8th keeper) - 2 points
Getting the supplemental pick isn't worthless.
- Joe Mauer, C - 7 points
He may have regressed on the power numbers from 2009, but a great batting average and good run production are givens with Mauer. - Justin Morneau, 1B - 8 points
We're all pulling for Morneau to get past his concussion and get back to concussing baseballs. What? Too soon? - Robinson Cano, 2B - 9 points
Cano's a very nice player, and appears to be a legitimate .315 hitter. I'm just not ready to push him into that tenth point just yet. - Corey Hart, OF - 4 points
There was a point when Hart was all the rage as a power/speed guy. But last year, he mostly hit home runs...mostly. - Grady Sizemore, OF - 3 points
What can you say about Sizemore? We know he's got speed and power. We don't know if he's healthy, or if he'll ever hit .280 again. - Ricky Nolasco, SP - 4 points
Might be this year's Jonathan Sanchez? - Jeremy Hellickson, SP - 4 points
Uber pitching prospect who flashed his stuff last year. I'm in. - Joe Nathan, RP - 2 points
His spring has been encouraging so far, but coming back from surgery is always risky.
- Chase Utley, 2B - 8 points
Healthy, Utley is worth 10 points easy, but it seems like this knee injury has legs. - Pedro Alvarez, 3B - 5 points
He's supposed to be the real deal, and he's already shown major league pop. He doesn't have to improve much to be keeper-worthy again next year. - Hanley Ramirez, SS - 10 points
The best. - Ryan Braun, OF - 10 points
Just a great producer. His power numbers were down last year, but I see that as fluky, not cause for concern. - Andrew McCutchen, OF - 8 points
Don't undervalue McCutchen. He's potentially a plus in every category except RBIs, and he's still only 24. - Colby Rasmus, OF - 5 points
Two full seasons, but he's still just a .263 career hitter, and hasn't shown much speed. Might be more similar to Jay Bruce than we anticipated. - Cliff Lee, SP - 8 points
He's been all around the world in the past few years, but he's posted great numbers everywhere. Now that he's happy and settled, I expect him to really hit stride. - Roy Oswalt, SP - 7 points
Uh oh. You know what we did? We forgot how good Oswalt can be.
- Victor Martinez, C/1B - 8 points
He should be going ahead of Posey in every draft. You know why? Because Posey's upside is Martinez. - Kevin Youkilis, 1B - 7 points
He should pick up 3B eligibility early this season, and his contributions in runs, RBIs, and batting average should only go up with the additions to the Red Sox lineup. - Kendrys Morales, 1B - 5 points
Yahoo says it's Kendrys now. Anyways, he's already got one great season and a tragic injury on his resume. All he needs now is a bounce back and he'll have a movie made about him. - Brian Roberts, 2B - 4 points
Back injuries are always cause for concern, but if he's able to straighten things out, he's a great option at a thin position. - Shin-Soo Choo, OF - 7 points
You can only go .300-80-20-80-20 so many times before people start betting on it. Two, actually. The number is two. - Jayson Werth, OF - 6 points
I don't expect Werth to hit .296 again (he's a career .272 hitter), but the rest of last year's numbers seem in line, even in a weaker Nationals lineup. - Drew Stubbs, OF - 5 points
Way too many strikeouts, but he's still young. Another guy I should have never dropped. - Tim Lincecum, SP - 9 points
Other than an 0-5, 7.82/1.82 August, Lincecum was tremendous again last season. I've still got him rated as a top 5 pitcher.
- Brian McCann, C - 5 points
It's tough to get consistent play out of a catcher, and McCann is one of the most reliable guys out there. The Wreckers did pay a ton for him, though. - Joey Votto, 1B - 10 points
He's a slightly leaner Miguel Cabrera. - Dustin Pedroia, 2B - 6 points
Injuries ended his season last year, but he appears fully healthy and ready to do his part in the stacked Boston offense. - Derek Jeter, SS - 6 points
Even a repeat of last year's "down" performance (.270-111-10-67-18) would be very solid, considering this year's crop of shortstops. - Andre Ethier, OF - 4 points
We're all still waiting for Ethier to put it all together. Maybe Don Mattingly is the guy to help him do it? - Roy Halladay, SP - 10 points
No starting pitcher is better. - Felix Hernandez, SP - 10 points
But Felix comes close. - Heath Bell, RP - 4 points
He may still just be a closer, but another great year adds "proven" to his list of characteristics.
- Brandon Phillips, 2B - 6 points
He'll hit about .270 with about 20 homers and about 20 steals. At second base, that works. - Ryan Zimmerman, 3B - 5 points
I think Zimmerman's a fine player, but he might be one of the more overrated guys in fantasy baseball. He'll be solid, but unspectacular. - Troy Tulowitzki, SS - 10 points
It's tough to trust him to stay healthy, but even missing 40 games last year, Tulo was extremely good. Expect more good things. - Carl Crawford, OF - 10 points
You can't tell me that Crawford's value will go down in that lineup. You just can't. - Matt Holliday, OF - 8 points
This cat can hit. Oh, and batting next to Albert Pujols never hurt anybody's numbers. - Justin Upton, OF - 7 points
The guy is just 23 years old. If he can play 150+ games in 2011, he's basically a lock for 25-25. - CC Sabathia, SP - 8 points
Sort of like Adam Dunn, CC's reliability gets undervalued sometimes. He's had at least 17 wins and 197 strikeouts in each of the past four seasons. - Stephen Strasburg, SP - 1 point
Mostly the Mosquitoes get a point for guts. Strasburg is out until at least September.
- Albert Pujols, 1B - 10 points
Seriously, let's argue about this. - David Wright, 3B - 9 points
I'm willing to look at Wright's down 2009 as an anomaly as long as he is. - Jimmy Rollins, SS - 5 points
Tough to make a call on Rollins. His upside still puts him as a potential 25/40 player, but he's been way off of that recently. - Nelson Cruz, OF - 5 points
If you look at Cruz's numbers, you're going to be surprised. He might pull it all together this year and challenge for the MVP. - Jason Heyward, OF - 6 points
Heyward really seemed to settle in during the second half of 2010. All the physical tools are there to take the next step. Matt Kemp upside is what I see. - Justin Verlander, SP - 7 points
Back to back fantastic seasons means Verlander's legit...probably. Have to wonder what happened in 2008, though. - Tommy Hanson, SP - 6 points
Hanson's got all the makings of a star, and his August and September were just filthy. Of course, plenty of guys can be stars; let's see if he can come through. - Mat Latos, SP - 6 points
Latos was remarkable last season, a plus in all the starting pitching categories. I expect a bit of a letdown, but it's tough to be that good and not be mostly legit...heck, even Jeff D'Amico couldn't put up those kind of Ks.
- Jose Reyes, SS - 8 points
Health is a minor concern, the lineup is a minor concern, but the player is good. Very good. - Carlos Gonzalez, OF - 9 points
I've read a few articles that try to temper Gonzalez's insane 2010 season, but those kinds of numbers don't just happen. Not all of them at once. - Josh Hamilton, OF - 8 points
One of the harder high-end players to judge, Hamilton showed last year that he can be among the best. I choose to bank on his talent and competitiveness. - B.J. Upton, OF - 4 points
Upton is not a power hitter. He averaged 15.5 homers per season over the past four years (in an average of 143 games per season). He's fine for steals, anything else is gravy. - Cole Hamels, SP - 6 points
Nice rebound after a frustrating 2009. However, his win-loss record seems awfully unimpressive for a team averaging 94 wins over the last three years. - David Price, SP - 7 points
Listen to these home numbers for Price: 9-2, 107 Ks in 114.2 IP, 1.96 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. Who knew orange juice was so good for you? - Francisco Liriano, SP - 4 points
Liriano seems to be fully healthy and recovered from arm surgery that cost him the entire 2007 season, but he may never be the same again. - Max Scherzer, SP - 4 points
Because there weren't enough guys I bailed on that ended up being good. Thanks Max.
Here are the standings in order of total points, along with the change from last year (and here's a link to last year's article, for your reference):
- Stewies SexyParties - 61 points (+1 from last year)
- Riders of Rohan - 57 points (-8)
- Feisty Mosquitoes - 55 points (-7)
- Mercer AutoWreckers - 55 points (+3)
- The Usual Suspects - 54 points (+4)
- Akron Pronks - 51 points (-3)
- Cleveland Enforcers - 50 points (+1)
- Those Guys - 47 points (+2)
- Vandelay Industries - 43 points (-8)
- Howard's Heroes - 43 points (-16)
- Columbus DamKnights - 41 points (-7)
- Dunedain Rangers - 40 points (+1)
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Fantasy Baseball 2011 - First Round
Two years ago I did a mental exercise of sorts and drafted my own first and second rounds of a 12-team fantasy baseball league. I didn't do it last year, but I'm ready to have another go. Again, I only do the first couple rounds, because I don't want to give away any of my personal information about guys I might be targeting when my ultra-competitive keeper league drafts this Saturday. But the first two rounds are the kind of hardball decisions that can make or break a draft. So let's get down to it.
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins - I'll summarize my argument for taking Ramirez over Albert Pujols. Shortstop is miserable this year. Hanley is an across-the-board producer at the game's weakest non-catcher position.
2. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals - Pujols is the epitome of reliability. His .312 average last year was actually 19 points lower than his career average. The guy is a hitting machine, and you won't be unhappy with him, even if you take him first.
3. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - This is where your draft list gets a lot tougher. So I'll repeat: shortstop is miserable this year. Tulowitzki has had a couple of really nice seasons, and just a filthy September: .322, 30 R, 15 HR, 40 RBI. Even after only playing 18 games in June and July, his season was good enough to rate in the top 25 in Yahoo's ranking system. If he can stay healthy, it looks like he's the real deal, and his wide contributions at a thin position make him one of the more useful guys out there.
4. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds - Almost every list I saw coming into this season actually had Miguel Cabrera at #3, behind Pujols and Ramirez. The thing is, Votto has all the pedigree that Cabrera has, he puts up the same kind of numbers, but he's got the ability to contribute on the basepaths as well. Add in the question marks that we're hearing about Cabrera's drinking issues, which could cost him some playing time this season, and I think Votto is a decidedly better pick this season.
5. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays - Third base isn't quite shortstop, but it's still a fairly tough position to fill. And Longoria is another 5 category contributor who's valuable no matter where you play him. It's also worth mentioning that his 22 home runs last year were actually a career low. An uptick back to around 30 HR is completely reasonable. Partner that with a .285 average, 100 runs and RBI, and the potential for double-digit steals, and I think we're happy.
6. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers - Listen, on a basic, baseball-only level, Cabrera is better than everybody except for Pujols. He's a fantastic hitter with tremendous power, and he posts stats every year, without fail. But there are two small factors that pull Cabrera down from #3 to #6 in my book. First, the aforementioned alcohol issues. I'm not too concerned with it affecting his on-field performance (it doesn't seem to have ever had an impact in the past), but with the legal system being involved again, there's the chance of missing some time. Second, he's still a first basemen. I mean that in two regards: he's only 1B eligible, and he doesn't steal any bases.
7. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies - This is one spot where I tend to differ from general fantasy baseball opinions. Most people will have Robinson Cano as their #1 second baseman. But Utley is a completely proven commodity, who from 2005-2009 averaged the following stat line: .301, 111 R, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 15 SB. He was injured for part of last year, but came back and looked fine. He had 8 multi-hit games in September. I'll bet on Utley every time.
8. Carl Crawford, OF, Red Sox - A lot of people are going to tell you that Crawford's speed numbers will go down because he'll end up batting 2nd or 3rd in the Red Sox lineup. Those people are retarded. Crawford batted in the two-hole 408 times last year, and in the three-hole 192 times. Will he steal 50 bases? Probably not. But he's a very skilled hitter with pop and speed, and he's going into a lineup that might be the best in baseball. I'd expect a broad range of statistical contributions.
9. David Wright, 3B, Mets - Two years ago, David Wright was a "question mark." His power dipped to 10 HR and 72 RBI, his steals spiked to 27, but his batting average stayed high (.307). In 2010, Wright got back to his normal line, though he posted the lowest average of his career at .283. I trust the overall package, though. Wright will always find a way to be a fantasy force, even if his team is in constant disarray. Constant, extreme disarray.
10. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies - Alright, chances are he's not going to go 34-26 again. And it's almost a certainty that his batting average will drop off from the crazy .336 he hit last year. The thing is..."almost"..."chances are"...but what if? He certainly showed that he has the capacity to be a nightmare for opposing pitchers, and a ridiculous fantasy contributor (#1 ranked player in Yahoo last season). I wouldn't necessarily recommend Gonzalez as a pick for everybody here, but if you're pretty confident in your ability to draft down the board, his upside is tremendous.
11. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers - Ever since he came into the league, Braun has been a spectacularly steady producer for fantasy owners. Very good power, good speed, career .307 hitter, plenty of run production. Basically, Braun is exactly what you're looking for if Carlos Gonzalez looked too risky for you.
12. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox - This tier of first basemen is a little tough to analyze, until you actually start to consider the difference in Gonzalez's situation between last year and this year. In 2010, Gonzalez hit 36 points higher on the road, and hit 20 HR away from Petco, versus just 11 in San Diego. Partner that with the fact that he goes from the Padres (22nd in the majors in runs scored) to the Red Sox (2nd), and you're looking at a very real chance of a .300-110-35-110 season out of Gonzalez...as a floor.
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins - I'll summarize my argument for taking Ramirez over Albert Pujols. Shortstop is miserable this year. Hanley is an across-the-board producer at the game's weakest non-catcher position.
2. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals - Pujols is the epitome of reliability. His .312 average last year was actually 19 points lower than his career average. The guy is a hitting machine, and you won't be unhappy with him, even if you take him first.
3. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - This is where your draft list gets a lot tougher. So I'll repeat: shortstop is miserable this year. Tulowitzki has had a couple of really nice seasons, and just a filthy September: .322, 30 R, 15 HR, 40 RBI. Even after only playing 18 games in June and July, his season was good enough to rate in the top 25 in Yahoo's ranking system. If he can stay healthy, it looks like he's the real deal, and his wide contributions at a thin position make him one of the more useful guys out there.
4. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds - Almost every list I saw coming into this season actually had Miguel Cabrera at #3, behind Pujols and Ramirez. The thing is, Votto has all the pedigree that Cabrera has, he puts up the same kind of numbers, but he's got the ability to contribute on the basepaths as well. Add in the question marks that we're hearing about Cabrera's drinking issues, which could cost him some playing time this season, and I think Votto is a decidedly better pick this season.
5. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays - Third base isn't quite shortstop, but it's still a fairly tough position to fill. And Longoria is another 5 category contributor who's valuable no matter where you play him. It's also worth mentioning that his 22 home runs last year were actually a career low. An uptick back to around 30 HR is completely reasonable. Partner that with a .285 average, 100 runs and RBI, and the potential for double-digit steals, and I think we're happy.
6. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers - Listen, on a basic, baseball-only level, Cabrera is better than everybody except for Pujols. He's a fantastic hitter with tremendous power, and he posts stats every year, without fail. But there are two small factors that pull Cabrera down from #3 to #6 in my book. First, the aforementioned alcohol issues. I'm not too concerned with it affecting his on-field performance (it doesn't seem to have ever had an impact in the past), but with the legal system being involved again, there's the chance of missing some time. Second, he's still a first basemen. I mean that in two regards: he's only 1B eligible, and he doesn't steal any bases.
7. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies - This is one spot where I tend to differ from general fantasy baseball opinions. Most people will have Robinson Cano as their #1 second baseman. But Utley is a completely proven commodity, who from 2005-2009 averaged the following stat line: .301, 111 R, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 15 SB. He was injured for part of last year, but came back and looked fine. He had 8 multi-hit games in September. I'll bet on Utley every time.
8. Carl Crawford, OF, Red Sox - A lot of people are going to tell you that Crawford's speed numbers will go down because he'll end up batting 2nd or 3rd in the Red Sox lineup. Those people are retarded. Crawford batted in the two-hole 408 times last year, and in the three-hole 192 times. Will he steal 50 bases? Probably not. But he's a very skilled hitter with pop and speed, and he's going into a lineup that might be the best in baseball. I'd expect a broad range of statistical contributions.
9. David Wright, 3B, Mets - Two years ago, David Wright was a "question mark." His power dipped to 10 HR and 72 RBI, his steals spiked to 27, but his batting average stayed high (.307). In 2010, Wright got back to his normal line, though he posted the lowest average of his career at .283. I trust the overall package, though. Wright will always find a way to be a fantasy force, even if his team is in constant disarray. Constant, extreme disarray.
10. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies - Alright, chances are he's not going to go 34-26 again. And it's almost a certainty that his batting average will drop off from the crazy .336 he hit last year. The thing is..."almost"..."chances are"...but what if? He certainly showed that he has the capacity to be a nightmare for opposing pitchers, and a ridiculous fantasy contributor (#1 ranked player in Yahoo last season). I wouldn't necessarily recommend Gonzalez as a pick for everybody here, but if you're pretty confident in your ability to draft down the board, his upside is tremendous.
11. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers - Ever since he came into the league, Braun has been a spectacularly steady producer for fantasy owners. Very good power, good speed, career .307 hitter, plenty of run production. Basically, Braun is exactly what you're looking for if Carlos Gonzalez looked too risky for you.
12. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox - This tier of first basemen is a little tough to analyze, until you actually start to consider the difference in Gonzalez's situation between last year and this year. In 2010, Gonzalez hit 36 points higher on the road, and hit 20 HR away from Petco, versus just 11 in San Diego. Partner that with the fact that he goes from the Padres (22nd in the majors in runs scored) to the Red Sox (2nd), and you're looking at a very real chance of a .300-110-35-110 season out of Gonzalez...as a floor.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Why I'm Taking Hanley Over Pujols
As you might have been able to tell from the title of this post, I'm assuming some level of knowledge with regards to fantasy baseball among readers of this article. If you're uninterested in fantasy baseball, you're probably better off waiting until April, when the NFL draft comes around, and the NHL season draws to a close.
Every list I look at has Albert Pujols as its #1 player. He's the consensus first player that should come off the board in every league. And really, you can never go wrong acquiring Albert Pujols. He's a megastar, unquestionably the best hitter in baseball. He gives you batting average, runs, home runs, and RBI, all in spades, and even tosses in a couple steals, because why not?
But if it's me with the #1 overall pick, or setting up a top __ list, or deciding how to allocate my auction funds, Hanley Ramirez is at the top of my rankings. Since it'd be a pretty boring post if I didn't, I'll explain why.
(By the way, this article assumes a 12-team league. In a 10-team league, position eligibility loses some of its importance, and I think makes it a dead heat between Hanley and Pujols).
We'll start with a look at their stats. These are their average 5x5 stats over the past five years (starting with Hanley's first full season):
Ramirez: .313, 112 runs, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 39 SB
Pujols: .330, 111 runs, 41 HR, 122 RBI, 9 SB
Obviously you're ecstatic with either of those lines. Hanley gives you across the board plus production other than RBI, and Pujols will post outstanding numbers in four different categories. Based purely on numbers, you're probably leaning towards Pujols, and that's perfectly reasonable. You're thinking, "Oh, I can just draft Michael Bourn in the 11th round to take care of my steals." And you can, of course you can. I won't ever say that taking Pujols first overall is a bad pick. It's a safe pick, a sure thing, and you'd be following the advice of all the experts.
But not my advice (notice how I just labeled myself a non-expert...oops!). I'm assuming you've all done ten or twelve fantasy baseball drafts, yes? When you're going through your draft, true or false, you much more often find yourself trying to find a reasonable steals guy to draft than a reasonable power guy to draft?
Of course it's steals. The thing about steals guys is that, when it comes to baseball, they're actually not all that valuable. Sure, speed is nice, and if you can be a very effective basestealer, you can put yourself into a position to score a lot of runs. But a bopper will always be more valuable, have a more solidified lineup spot, and thus, be a safer pick in the middle rounds. Think about guys like Dave Roberts and Eric Young, speed guys who disappeared because their speed wasn't enough to keep them playing every day.
The speed of Hanley acts as a counter-weight to Pujols' power numbers. Now, Pujols still has a 17 point edge in batting average. What position does he play again? First base? And Hanley plays...shortstop, that's right. But is position eligibility something you even want to take into account at the top of the draft?
Umm...yes? Why is Robinson Cano's average draft position 9.9? Because it's so impossible to find a .315 hitter who gets 25 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 runs? Kevin Youkilis is going 19 picks later. Vlad Guerrero is going 107 picks later. The reason Cano is so enticing (beyond his talent) is that he's a second baseman.
To wrap it all up, what position would rather be in 22 picks: you've got a huge-hitting 1B and holes at all the tougher positions to fill, or you've got a do-everything SS, and can wait for the right 1B at the right time in the draft? As a bit of reference, here are a couple guys at each position, their numbers from last year, and their average draft position (ignoring guys whose ADP is less than 24, since theoretically they won't be available, and guys with multiple position eligibility):
1B
The ultimate scenario would be if Jose Reyes were to fall to your second round pick, but there's just no way you could count on that. And if you miss out on Reyes, you're sifting through the bargain bin at shortstop. Meanwhile, you should be able to get Morales or Morneau with your 5th round pick (#49), or Konerko all the way down in the 7th (#73). Or, if you wanted to just ignore 1B for a while, both Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche had at least 19 HR, 75 R, and 80 RBI, and they're both going after pick #200, putting their draft spot somewhere in the middle of the 16th round.
You know what shortstop falls in that area? Yunel Escobar (.256, 60 R, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 6 SB in 135 games).
Take Hanley. Unless you're in the same league as me, and I've got the #2 pick. In that scenario, Albert Pujols is a no-brainer. :)
Every list I look at has Albert Pujols as its #1 player. He's the consensus first player that should come off the board in every league. And really, you can never go wrong acquiring Albert Pujols. He's a megastar, unquestionably the best hitter in baseball. He gives you batting average, runs, home runs, and RBI, all in spades, and even tosses in a couple steals, because why not?
But if it's me with the #1 overall pick, or setting up a top __ list, or deciding how to allocate my auction funds, Hanley Ramirez is at the top of my rankings. Since it'd be a pretty boring post if I didn't, I'll explain why.
(By the way, this article assumes a 12-team league. In a 10-team league, position eligibility loses some of its importance, and I think makes it a dead heat between Hanley and Pujols).
We'll start with a look at their stats. These are their average 5x5 stats over the past five years (starting with Hanley's first full season):
Ramirez: .313, 112 runs, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 39 SB
Pujols: .330, 111 runs, 41 HR, 122 RBI, 9 SB
Obviously you're ecstatic with either of those lines. Hanley gives you across the board plus production other than RBI, and Pujols will post outstanding numbers in four different categories. Based purely on numbers, you're probably leaning towards Pujols, and that's perfectly reasonable. You're thinking, "Oh, I can just draft Michael Bourn in the 11th round to take care of my steals." And you can, of course you can. I won't ever say that taking Pujols first overall is a bad pick. It's a safe pick, a sure thing, and you'd be following the advice of all the experts.
But not my advice (notice how I just labeled myself a non-expert...oops!). I'm assuming you've all done ten or twelve fantasy baseball drafts, yes? When you're going through your draft, true or false, you much more often find yourself trying to find a reasonable steals guy to draft than a reasonable power guy to draft?
Of course it's steals. The thing about steals guys is that, when it comes to baseball, they're actually not all that valuable. Sure, speed is nice, and if you can be a very effective basestealer, you can put yourself into a position to score a lot of runs. But a bopper will always be more valuable, have a more solidified lineup spot, and thus, be a safer pick in the middle rounds. Think about guys like Dave Roberts and Eric Young, speed guys who disappeared because their speed wasn't enough to keep them playing every day.
The speed of Hanley acts as a counter-weight to Pujols' power numbers. Now, Pujols still has a 17 point edge in batting average. What position does he play again? First base? And Hanley plays...shortstop, that's right. But is position eligibility something you even want to take into account at the top of the draft?
Umm...yes? Why is Robinson Cano's average draft position 9.9? Because it's so impossible to find a .315 hitter who gets 25 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 runs? Kevin Youkilis is going 19 picks later. Vlad Guerrero is going 107 picks later. The reason Cano is so enticing (beyond his talent) is that he's a second baseman.
To wrap it all up, what position would rather be in 22 picks: you've got a huge-hitting 1B and holes at all the tougher positions to fill, or you've got a do-everything SS, and can wait for the right 1B at the right time in the draft? As a bit of reference, here are a couple guys at each position, their numbers from last year, and their average draft position (ignoring guys whose ADP is less than 24, since theoretically they won't be available, and guys with multiple position eligibility):
1B
- Kevin Youkilis* (.307, 77 R, 19 HR, 62 RBI in 102 games) - ADP of 28.6
- Adam Dunn (.260, 85 R, 38 HR, 103 RBI) - ADP of 50.6
- Kendry Morales (.290, 29 R, 11 HR, 39 RBI in 51 games) - ADP of 59.6
- Justin Morneau (.345, 53 R, 18 HR, 56 RBI in 81 games) - ADP of 60.3
- Billy Butler (.318, 77 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI) - ADP of 66.5
- Paul Konerko (.312, 89 R, 39 HR, 111 RBI) - ADP of 93.4
- Jose Reyes (.282, 83 R, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 30 SB in 133 games) - ADP of 27.2
- Jimmy Rollins (.243, 48 R, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 17 SB in 88 games) - ADP of 44.6
- Derek Jeter (.270, 111 R, 10 HR, 67 RBI, 18 SB) - ADP of 52.5
- Alexei Ramirez (.282, 83 R, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB) - ADP of 70.2
- Elvis Andrus (.265, 88 R, 0 HR, 35 RB, 32 SB) - ADP of 99.3
- Stephen Drew (.278, 83 R, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 10 SB) - ADP of 100.4
The ultimate scenario would be if Jose Reyes were to fall to your second round pick, but there's just no way you could count on that. And if you miss out on Reyes, you're sifting through the bargain bin at shortstop. Meanwhile, you should be able to get Morales or Morneau with your 5th round pick (#49), or Konerko all the way down in the 7th (#73). Or, if you wanted to just ignore 1B for a while, both Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche had at least 19 HR, 75 R, and 80 RBI, and they're both going after pick #200, putting their draft spot somewhere in the middle of the 16th round.
You know what shortstop falls in that area? Yunel Escobar (.256, 60 R, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 6 SB in 135 games).
Take Hanley. Unless you're in the same league as me, and I've got the #2 pick. In that scenario, Albert Pujols is a no-brainer. :)
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