Tuesday, March 29, 2011

2011 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Draft Analysis

Eddie beat me to the punch, but here's my draft analysis.

Those Guys
  • Best pick: Carlos Marmol (1.1)
    As I've said before, sometimes the easiest pick is still the best pick. Blake Griffin was a great pick, and so is Marmol.
  • Worst pick: Aubrey Huff (7.1)
    Huff doesn't strike me as a guy with a ton of appealing upside. While the 7th round isn't early per se, I'd have liked to see the Guys go after some younger players. Luke Scott and Carlos Lee are similar players, and both went three rounds later.
  • Overall Draft Grade: B-
    The whole draft seemed like a draft by a team that felt it was ready to compete: two closers early, Vlad Guerrero and Tim Hudson in the 4th and 5th, and more veterans to fill in the lineup/rotation. A good fit for some teams, but Those Guys seem at least a year away. I would've liked to see more risks, more youth.
Vandelay Industries
  • Best pick: Carl Pavano (14.3)
    Pavano's had more bad years than good ones, but seems to have found a home in Minnesota. Can you trust him? Probably not. But landing a guy who could be as good as Tim Hudson in the last round is nice value.
  • Worst pick: Carlos Quentin (6.3)
    I just hate him.
  • Overall Draft Grade: C
    So much of this draft relies on the first two guys, neither of whom is a sure thing. But, if Carlos Santana grows up fast, and Pablo Sandoval bounces back, the draft could be looking a lot better in 2 months. And, like Eddie said, Vandelay used their draft picks to dramatically upgrade their keepers.
Riders of Rohan
  • Best pick: Austin Jackson (11.2)
    I see him as better-hitting Curtis Granderson with a little less pop. Eight rounds later, that sounds good.
  • Worst pick: Paul Konerko (2.2)
    It's not that Konerko is some nightmare player, or a bad bet. He's a consistent veteran power source. I just know I didn't want to take him there, and I was frustrated when I did.
  • Overall Draft Grade: B+
    I like my balance between young players and proven commodities. It sounds like Drew Storen is having about the worst spring training possible, but other than him, I'm excited to see how things pan out.
Dunedain Rangers
  • Best pick: Adam Jones (9.4)
    After 2009, Jones was a mega-hyped star-in-the-making. You're telling me that after a similar 2010, we've suddenly given up on him? Kudos to the Rangers for swooping in.
  • Worst pick: Chad Billingsley (2.4)
    Initially this was going to be Gio Gonzalez. Then I realized Billingsley is similar to Gonzalez, but got picked five rounds earlier. So there you go.
  • Overall Draft Grade: B+
    The early picks were a little bland, but I completely loved the back half of their draft. Tabata and Jones specifically were really good value.
Howard's Heroes
  • Best pick: Brett Gardner (3.5)
    A lot of people are going to disagree with me here, but the rumors of Gardner leading off make a lot of sense. And if he's there, Gardner's a prize.
  • Worst pick - Tim Stauffer (6.5)
    If I'm being perfectly honest, I don't know enough about Stauffer to really dismiss him. I see he's a former first round pick, #4 overall in 2003. But 2003 was a while ago. I could see Stauffer not being drafted at all, which means the sixth round is way too early.
  • Overall Draft Grade: C-
    I just wasn't excited about most of the guys the Heroes picked up in the draft. Gardner's a nice player, and several of his guys should be solid, but nobody gets me excited.
  • Best pick: Trevor Cahill (4.6)
    Cahill factored into keeper discussions for his former team, the Heroes. The fact that the DamKnights were able to scoop him up in the fourth was a nice surprise for them.
  • Worst pick: Nick Markakis (2.6)
    I used to have Markakis. He was part of my championship squad. But with 138 doubles and only 50 homers over the past three years, it's starting to look like he might just have warning track power.
  • Overall Draft Grade: C
    I like a lot of the later pieces, but the early picks seemed to go way too safe. Bryce Harper is a nice pickup, though.
Stewies SexyParties
  • Best pick: Homer Bailey (9.7)
    Post All-Star break numbers: 10 starts, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 59 Ks in 58.1 IP. And how's this for a surprise: Bailey's still only 25.
  • Worst pick - Adam Lind (6.7)
    I feel similar to Lind as I feel about Huff. The difference is that Lind at least has a crazy good season in his recent history. Still, I think the sixth round is too early to be taking a flier on a guy who could just be a .260/20/80 player.
  • Overall Draft Grade: A-
    A lot of responsible picks by the SexyParties, with enough pizazz sprinkled in to keep things exciting. The lack of saves is a temporary concern, but it's always a concern, even if you draft a few closers.
Akron Pronks
  • Best pick: Brandon League (13.8)
    It's always nice when you can get some value out of your very late picks, and League is a nice pull. I don't expect a season of production out of him, but he could steal some saves while David Aardsma recovers.
  • Worst pick - Carlos Pena (7.8)
    I haven't made my distaste for Pena a secret. Plus, the Pronks really just needed another potential 20/20 guy. Jose Tabata, Adam Jones, and Torii Hunter were all still available.
  • Overall Draft Grade: B
    I don't think the Pronks got great value anywhere, but they got decent value and pretty much every pick. That sort of performance gives us a B on the report card.
Mercer AutoWreckers
  • Best pick: Rajai Davis (10.9)
    I don't think Davis is a fantastic real-life baseball player, but with an everyday opportunity, you can count on a lot of steals and a solid average. Good pickup.
  • Worst pick: Ricky Romero (4.9)
    I don't like that he's being thrust into the #1 starter role, I don't like that he pitches in the AL East, in Toronto, and overall I just don't like him. I liked both of the next two picks (Colby Lewis and Phil Hughes) better than Romero.
  • Overall Draft Grade: B-
    It was a pretty boring draft by the AutoWreckers. That usually means solid picks, and they were, but I think they could've had a little more fun.
Feisty Mosquitoes
  • Best pick: Chris Young (12.10)
    He's got some injury history, but he's generally been very good when healthy. The Mets are a bloodbath, but he might be a fine starter this year.
  • Worst pick: Howie Kendrick (11.10)
    It's kind of tough to declare an eleventh round pick as a "bad pick," but Kendrick seems like a minimally valuable player. I just don't like spending a draft pick (any draft pick) on a guy whose most valuable asset is being a .295-hitting second baseman.
  • Overall Draft Grade: B-
    I like the offense they kept, but look at the starters they drafted: Jaime Garcia, Jordan Zimmermann, Johan Santana, Chris Young, Carlos Zambrano. Would've liked to see them find someone with a little less volatility...anyone.
The Usual Suspects
  • Best pick: Juan Pierre (9.11)
    I'm learning that I seem to like speed picks, with Gardner, Davis, and now Pierre. But it's a tough task to find enough speed when just putting together talent. Having a 50-steal weapon like Pierre in your arsenal gives you a nice way to make up ground.
  • Worst pick: Josh Beckett (3.11)
    Beckett's a nice enough player, with upside and downside, as most players have. But I feel like I'd have been happier with a lot of the pitchers who went in the next couple rounds (Matusz, Cahill, Matt Garza, Lewis, Hughes, John Danks, Ian Kennedy).
  • Overall Draft Grade: A-
    I really didn't think much of the Beckett pick, but the Suspects got really good value at pretty much every other pick. The two catcher picks were a little mystifying, but individually, even they were alright.
Cleveland Enforcers
  • Best pick: Lance Berkman (12.12)
    Berkman's 2008 line: .312, 114 R, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 18 SB. I trust any lineup with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday to give a guy like Berkman a good chance to succeed. See Ryan Ludwick.
  • Worst pick - Geovany Soto (4.12) / Manny Ramirez (9.12)
    The Enforcers let us all know that Soto was a mistake pick, so while it was definitely their worst pick, I figured I should pick another. Ramirez was great in 2008, but since then he's seemed to just not have his head on straight. Tampa's lineup isn't as good as you might think; I have trouble seeing Manny bounce back.
  • Overall Draft Grade: C+
    The Soto error really hurt the flow (and caliber) of their draft, but they came back to find some nice players. I think they found some good pieces, though, particularly Gordon Beckham, Aramis Ramirez, and Berkman, along with some decent upside in Mike Moustakas and Domonic Brown.


Eddie Mattingly said...

I disagree with everything you wrote...

GoodPointJoe said...

Including rating your draft as tied for the best one this season?

gpbroNick said...

You do realize that after publicly declaring both my keepers and draft as pretty much terrible, I'm now going to win the league right?

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