2011 NBA Draft Predictions

Other people like ESPN's Chad Ford rely on insider information to determine which prospect will be drafted by each of the various NBA teams on Thursday night's NBA draft. I use what limited information I have about each player's pro potential, and what I perceive to be each team's needs. Remember 2009, when I inexplicably put DeJuan Blair ahead of Austin Daye? Well, Blair is a solid contributor on a good team, and Daye is a do-nothing forward on a crummy team. So maybe I'm not always wrong.

Anyways, here we go. A wide open draft lottery gets predicted by an amateur...right now:

1. The Cleveland Cavaliers select Kyrie Irving, guard from Duke University. The Cavs are feinting that they're still considering Derrick Williams at the #1 pick, but I don't buy it unless they work out a deal with the #4 pick. Irving and Williams are neck-and-neck in this draft, but Irving would be harder to replace with the talent I expect to be available at #4.
2. The Minnesota Timberwolves select Derrick Williams, forward from the University of Arizona. Even the Timberwolves can't mess this one up, right? Whoever doesn't go #1 is a no-brainer at the second pick, and while Minnesota has made some no-brain picks in the past (drafting Ricky Rubio, then drafting Jonny Flynn, then drafting and trading Ty Lawson), Williams is a lock for #2. It's possible they trade the pick, but Williams will go second, for sure.
3. The Utah Jazz select Brandon Knight, guard from the University of Kentucky. When you're consistently a good team, you don't have many opportunities at high draft picks. But they've made the most of their limited opportunities, grabbing superstar Deron Williams with their only top 5 pick since 1982. They're back at the top of the draft with a pick they acquired for Williams, and I think they'll use it on the most similar player to Williams in this draft. Knight is smart, agile, and motivated, and he's a great finisher at the rim. He might not be the next Deron Williams, but he also might be.
4. The Cleveland Cavaliers select Jonas Valanciunas, center from Lithuania. I went back and forth on this pick, and this is where the draft really shakes loose, so each of these picks has a huge impact on the next few. Valanciunas is apparently locked in for another year with his Lithuanian team, which people say is scaring teams off. Hogwash, I say. The Cavs are among several teams that love love love the big man, and I think, with two top picks in the draft, they know they've got a couple years before they can expect to compete. So pick the guy you want, and be patient. And send a coach over there to keep him on the right path, basketball and otherwise.
5. The Toronto Raptors select Enes Kanter, center from Turkey. I'd like to find a way to have Kanter drop to the Wizards at #6, but realistically he'll go at four or five, and I'll sigh. Anyways, Kanter is a banger with good hands, the kind of guy who can really improve his teammates. His presence, along with the hopeful development of Ed Davis, could allow Andrea Bargnani more freedom to possibly grow into a legitimate star. Good fit.
6. The Washington Wizards select Kawhi Leonard, forward from San Diego State University. As I said, I think the Wizards would love to have Kanter as a Robin to John Wall's Batman, and they should explore trading up to get him (especially if they can unload that nightmare Andray Blatche). But if things go as I project, I think Leonard is a nice piece. He's unrefined, and he's still growing into his body, but his intensity is the real deal, and it shows in his defense and rebounding. It does mean the team is still on the lookout for a Robin, though.
7. The Sacramento Kings select Jan Vesely, forward from the Czech Republic. The Kings have a sort of patchwork team right now, one without much of an identity. They've got some interesting pieces, particularly Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins. Vesely should slide in easily, even though he's still unrefined. He can play either forward slot, and has a lot he can do from mid-range offensively. The Heat's big three they ain't, but Evans, Cousins, and Vesely could definitely guide the Kings back into the playoff hunt.
8. The Detroit Pistons select Bismack Biyombo, forward from the Congo. Detroit allowed the highest field goal percentage in basketball last year, which is simply unacceptable from the way this franchise has won titles in the past. Biyombo is one of the mysteries of this year's draft, but the physical tools are there to be a defensive force immediately, and a defensive superstar soon enough. There's risk, sure, but there's reward as well.
9. The Charlotte Bobcats select Kemba Walker, guard from the University of Connecticut. Charlotte is paltry up front, but two things prompt them taking Walker in my estimation. First, he's the best player on the board by a good margin. Second, the word is that Charlotte would like to get someone who can contribute right away, which jives with my assessment of Michael Jordan's preferences. Which are wholly speculative, of course, but as good a guess as anybody's.
   
10. The Milwaukee Bucks select Alec Burks, guard from the University of Colorado. Apparently the Bucks cooled on Brandon Jennings pretty quickly, as he's now been the subject of trade rumors. I think Burks is a good fit for the team either way. He's a slasher guard who can make his own shot. There are concerns about his ability to hit jumpers, but some good old-fashioned practice should take care of that.
    
11. The Golden State Warriors select Klay Thompson, guard from Washington State University. Golden State's top two scorers from last season were Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis, their starting backcourt. So why would they draft another two guard? Well first, Thompson would be a nice complement to either Curry or Ellis, making both expendable if needed. The Warriors could really use a center, but they're better off trying to get one via trade at this draft position.
12. The Utah Jazz select Jimmer Fredette, guard from Brigham Young University. Honestly, when I started putting this together, I thought the Knight pick at #3 would preclude Fredette going to Utah here. But the reality is that Utah's most glaring need is scoring punch, and if Fredette has shown one thing, it's a knack for putting the ball in the bucket. Utah's best move might be to simply go with a small lineup and try to play Suns-style basketball, running and gunning. Could be fun to watch.
    
13. The Phoenix Suns select Tristan Thompson, forward from the University of Texas. Kind of a coup for the Suns to land Thompson, who's more like a top 10 talent in this year's draft. He's a do-everything forward, but in a good Jeff Green way, not a bad Joe Alexander way. He might not project to be a superstar, but I'd be pretty shocked if he wasn't still an effective NBA player in ten years. His character and ability should make him a lifer.
14. The Houston Rockets select Nikola Vucevic, center from the University of Southern California. The Rockets are a mess. They have needs basically across the board, and since there's no lightning in a bottle at this point in the draft, I think they'll go with the most projectable guy out there. Vucevic played three years of college ball, improving each year, and becoming a very good scorer and rebounder by his junior season. He's not Dirk, but he's got a good shooting touch and can help any team. It's a start.

The Wizards pick again at 18, which will probably be the last pick I watch live. The draft is basically a crapshoot after #9 (and Valanciunas could fall back into that area as well), but one guy I'd like to see Washington take with their second pick would be Jeremy Tyler. He's got size, athleticism, and skill, but is utterly lacking in maturity. My dream scenario would have the Wizards acquiring Shane Battier, and letting Battier groom Tyler. But that's probably just that: a dream.

Good luck to all the teams in the lottery, and here's hoping that the Wizards are a winner on draft night. And also that there are lots of trades. Big ones.

Twi-Night Doubleheader - Week 20

Fantasy Players of the Week

• AL Hitter: Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees (.385, 8 R, 4 HR, 14 RBI) - Cano is putting together a nice little season here. His run production has been outstanding all season, but 14 RBI in a week? Obscene.
  
• NL Hitter: Omar Infante, all positions, Braves (.452, 8 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB) - I'm not even kidding; Infante has started at least five games at three infield positions and two outfield positions this year. He was maybe the most controversial All-Star selection ever, but since the break he's hitting .379 with 4 HR, 11 RBI, and 20 R.
  
• AL Pitcher: CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees (2-0, 17 K, 1.38/0.85) - Sabathia continues his fantastic run as a home Yankee, chalking up two more wins and improving his Cy Young resume. I'd have to say he's the front-runner right now, but nobody has been overwhelming in the American League. This looks like a classic RACE TO THE FINISH!
  
• NL Pitcher: Roy Oswalt, SP, Phillies (2-0, 15 K, 1.93/0.86) - Oswalt seems to be trying to remind people that, before the Astros went into the crapper, he was a pretty damn good pitcher. It's nice to see him able to thrive in a pennant race again, and between him, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hamels, Philadelphia has got a pretty daunting rotation to throw at anybody this postseason...if they can just get past the Braves.
  

No bonus coverage this week, folks.

Twi-Night Doubleheader - Week 19

Does it bother you guys when I don't do these posts on Mondays? It should. I'm not going to be any better about it, just saying, you should be pretty pissed.

Fantasy Players of the Week

• AL Hitter: Michael Brantley, OF, Indians (.375, 7 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB) - This is the kind of across-the-board production those of us who were watching Brantley at the beginning of the season were hoping for. The .203 season average and only 143 at-bats...not so much.
  
• NL Hitter: Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins (.556, 5 R, 4 HR, 8 RBI) - That caliber of batting average is always great to see, and when you partner it with as many homers as anyone over the past week, the pick is kind of a no-brainer. As in, pick anyone else and you don't have a brain.
  
• AL Pitcher: Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners (1-1, 20 K, 0.00/1.09) - Felix was a party to one of the weirder SP games this year on Sunday. He gave up six hits (one home run) and four walks over 6.2 innings, yet allowed zero earned runs. The problem, of course, was six unearned runs, but as fantasy owners, those are just runs that affect your chance at a win. Fantasy-wise, he's your pitcher of the week in the Junior Circuit.
  
• NL Pitcher: R.A. Dickey, SP, Mets (1-0, 7 Ks, 0.00/0.22) - While you could pretty reasonably argue that Wade LeBlanc (2-0, 15 Ks, 2.13/1.03) has had a better past seven days, I'm going with Dickey. He's having a career year, and at this point, with 2.43/1.15 ratios and by far his best ever K/BB ratio (2.4), he should really be on a team in most leagues (he's only 39% owned right now).
  

Buy-Backs

We had an interesting situation crop up in our fantasy baseball keeper league this past weekend, as a result of some new trade clauses. There was a buildup this season over the course of three trades, each including a variation on a concept.

The first trade (completed about 8 weeks ago) included The Usual Suspects sending Daniel Bard and a second-round pick to the Huber Heights Heroes, in exchange for a few pitchers. The trade included the following clause:

If Daniel Bard is kept by any team, the second round pick is sent back to the Suspects, in exchange for their 4th round pick.

Fast forward to last weekend, when two teams (one of them being my own Riders of Rohan) decided to take this concept a step forward. A trade of Jose Bautista, Mariano Rivera, and Kevin Gregg for Jonathan Sanchez and Carlos Marmol included the following additional features:

Riders of Rohan also trade their 10th round pick to Those Guys.

Additionally, after the season has concluded, Those Guys have the option (before 31 December, 2010) to reacquire Jose Bautista in exchange for the 10th round pick, previously acquired from Riders of Rohan.

A few hours later, the following trade was made:

Cleveland Enforcers trade Trevor Hoffman and their 2011 2nd round pick to Huber Heights Heroes for Matt Cain. After the season, Heroes have the option to reacquire Cain in exchange for their 2011 4th round pick.

And we realized we had a problem on our hands. The Enforcers and Heroes' trade was basically just a rental of Matt Cain for the remainder of the season, and most of the league (including the Enforcers and Heroes, by the way) felt the trade was in bad taste.

In the short term, we decided to force renegotiation of both trades from this past weekend. Long term, we're trying to figure out a couple things. How far do we want our brand new "conditional pick" ban to go? Should the Bard trade be revisited? What should the language of our rules addendum say?

I'm asking, what do you think?

Wins Update - 4/22

As you may remember, I had employed a few strategies this year in trying to improve my position in the Wins category in our main fantasy baseball league. A few weeks in, let's take a look at how things are panning out.

I currently have five wins, tied for second-to-last place. The top two teams have 13 and 12 wins, respectively. The top team, Mercer AutoWreckers, acquired 4-win Roy Halladay from me prior to this year's keeper submissions. In retrospect, perhaps trading him and working to acquire Jon Lester (0-2, 8.44/1.88) was not the best idea.

But there are reasons to be hopeful. Phil Hughes is coming off of a fantastic start last night against the Athletics, and despite still being winless, Zack Greinke looked like his old self yesterday, allowing just three baserunners in a hard luck no-decision. I feel like I've got a pretty good pitching staff, and if Lester can get his act together, maybe the best top-to-bottom in our league. I'll give you another update on chasing wins as the league starts to take shape.

2010 NFL Draft Preview

This year's NFL Draft will start on Thursday night. I'm not sure what I think of that, and probably won't be sure until it actually happens. I know that the Washington Capitals are scheduled to play Wednesday and Friday, so we'll see if I'm up for spending three straight nights on my couch watching sports.

I do know that I'll at least watch through pick #4, as I'm very interested to see what the Redskins do with their first round pick. I'd be pretty surprised if they did anything other than draft offensive tackle Russell Okung, but you never know. That's why you tune in.

But of course, the Redskins aren't the only team whose fate will be affected on Thursday night. And so, we look forward to the 2010 NFL Draft. Like last year, we'll predict the top fifteen picks and give some analysis on each.

2010 NFL Mock Draft

1. The St. Louis Rams select Sam Bradford, quarterback, Oklahoma. Not much surprise here at this point, with how much discussion there has been about Bradford's rise up everyone's draft board, but remember right after the NCAA football season ended? Ndamukong Suh was everyone's #1 pick. I guess we shouldn't be surprised when a quarterback ends up going #1 overall, though. Seven of the past ten first overall selections have been quarterbacks.
2. The Detroit Lions select Ndamukong Suh, defensive tackle, Nebraska. I don't generally get into college football, but I rooted like crazy for Nebraska when they played Texas in the Big 12 title game. A loss by Texas could have forced Cincinnati, Boise State, or TCU into the BCS title game, which is all I've ever wanted out of college football. Anyways, Suh is an elite defensive line talent, and the Lions are still the kind of team that just needs players.
3. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Gerald McCoy, defensive tackle, Oklahoma. There's been some debate over which elite defensive tackle is the better player, but in the end, both guys will probably be long-time successful pros. There aren't a lot of ways to go wrong in this draft, especially early on. Tampa, like Detroit, should just be looking for talent, and McCoy has it in spades.
4. The Washington Redskins select Russell Okung, offensive tackle, Oklahoma State. The more I read about Okung and the other tackles in this draft, the more I want the Redskins to find a way to reasonably trade down. None of these OTs is an elite, Jonathan Ogden/Orlando Pace caliber player, and there look to be four or five potentially very good tackles. If the Redskins hold onto the pick, Okung is the closest to a sure thing, so he's the pick.
5. The Kansas City Chiefs select Eric Berry, safety, Tennessee. A lot of the talk has been that Berry would be the best player available, but that Kansas City would be concerned about giving "top 5 money" to a safety. Hogwash, I say. It would be much more costly to pass on a premier player and watch him return interceptions for touchdowns for the Browns. The first non-Big 12 player will be Berry, here at #5.
   
6. The Seattle Seahawks select C.J. Spiller, running back, Clemson. I do think that the Seahawks will look long and hard at the various offensive linemen available, but with a new coach, especially a coach from college like Pete Carroll, I just expect him to want to go out and get a new toy for his offense. Spiller is highly rated, and I think he's their main target. With another pick later in the round, I imagine they'll be hoping that one of the top offensive tackles falls to them, which is a fair guess.
7. The Cleveland Browns select Dez Bryant, wide receiver, Oklahoma State. This doesn't feel like the pick that the Browns will make, but every time I run through the logic in my head, it makes the most sense. Their offensive line is actually pretty good, so I don't see them going after one of the remaining tackles. Mike Holmgren apparently doesn't think much of Jimmy Clausen, or so people tell me. And the intriguing defensive options don't seem to have enough value to take here. Bryant could help a lethargic Browns offense to actually scare some folks, and after signing Jake Delhomme, you'd better get him a weapon.
8. The Oakland Raiders select Jimmy Clausen, quarterback, Notre Dame. After last year's selection of Darrius Heyward-Bey, and the selection of Sebastian Janikowski in the first round of the 2000 draft, the Raiders have this aura of unpredictability around them. But as you look deeper, that's just not the case. While Darren McFadden, JaMarcus Russell, and Robert Gallery may not have turned out, they were all very reasonable picks, even "safe" picks. You can't blame Al Davis for trying to think outside the box. I think this year he stays reasonable, and sees Clausen as a guy who put up great numbers against top competition in college. He's a completely fair pick.
9. The Buffalo Bills select Brian Bulaga, offensive tackle, Iowa. A pretty boring pick for a team that's been pretty boring the past few years. New head coach Chan Gailey has been coordinating offenses for long enough to know the value of a strong offensive line, and if Brian Bulaga falls to their pick at #9, I'd be pretty shocked if the Bills didn't snag him.
10. The Jacksonville Jaguars select Jason Pierre-Paul, defensive end, South Florida. The Jags registered a measly 14 sacks in 2009, so obviously getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks is a desperate need. I've seen Pierre-Paul, Derrick Morgan, and Jerry Hughes all mentioned as the top DE in this draft, so any of them could go here. I mostly picked Pierre-Paul because he went to USF, and so he could maybe generate a little more buzz by staying in-state. Unlike some pundits, I don't see Tim Tebow as an option here.
11. The Denver Broncos select Rolando McClain, linebacker, Alabama. Every "big board" I've seen has McClain lower than this, but every mock draft I've seen has the Broncos taking him here. I'm not going to pretend I know something that the experts don't. McClain was the anchor for a sensational Crimson Tide defense last year, and everything points to him being a high character guy as well. Denver recently acquitted themselves of Brandon Marshall, so you have to think character is a factor for them.
12. The Miami Dolphins select Dan Williams, defensive tackle, Tennessee. The Dolphins run a 3-4 defense and don't have an elite nose tackle, so Williams is a nice fit. There was some thought that Dez Bryant was a perfect fit at this pick, but A) I've already got him well off the board, and B) the Dolphins just acquired Brandon Marshall, so wide receiver is suddenly not a need.
13. The San Francisco 49ers select Trent Williams, offensive tackle, Oklahoma. Just a couple years ago, the 49ers took another workout warrior, tight end Vernon Davis. Williams was impressive at the combine, as well as already being a highly touted tackle. Honestly, after seeing Williams fall this far, I went back over my draft board to make sure I didn't miss something, but this is how I see things playing out, which would be a coup for San Francisco.
14. The Seattle Seahawks select Anthony Davis, offensive tackle, Rutgers. Remember when the Seahawks reached for C.J. Spiller in the hopes that one of the top tier offensive tackles would fall to them? Well, hello Seattle, Anthony Davis just so happens to fall into that category. He's actually got the upside to be the best tackle from this class if he can overcome maturity concerns. Davis or Trent Williams would be a great result here if the Seahawks go for Spiller with the #6 pick.
15. The New York Giants select Derrick Morgan, defensive end, Georgia Tech. The sports talk radio interviews I hear suggest that Osi Umenyiora may be dealt, possibly on draft day, which would create a distinct need for a defensive end. Morgan and TCU's Jerry Hughes are both on the board here, but Morgan's quality has been better publicized, so I'll go with him. Hey, the Giants are still a New York team. They still react to public opinion on some level.
    

I'm holding out hope that the Redskins are able to find a way to trade down a few picks and get back into the second and/or third rounds. Everyone says this is one of the deepest drafts in years, and given the fact that the Redskins seem likely to select merely the best of several offensive tackles, the opportunity for creating some value by trading down seems distinct.

Should Ben Stay or Should He Go?

First, let's dispense with one thing. I don't like the Pittsburgh Steelers. Some might say that I hate the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they wouldn't be completely wrong. There's certainly something that feels like hate brewing inside of me when I talk about them.

That being said, I've generally been able to be pretty objective when it comes to talking about them in Joe and Joe context, or in any analytical context, so I'm going to take a crack at the current situation with Ben Roethlisberger.

Let's start with the facts. Roethlisberger faced criminal charges on sexual assault in two different circumstances. In both instances, the charges were eventually dropped, though there's still a civil suit outstanding in one case. Additionally, the Steelers have had a well-publicized and long-cultivated reputation for being intolerant of people with poor characters, parting ways with Bam Morris (marijuana), Plaxico Burress (attitude), and Cedrick Wilson (hit his girlfriend) for character issues. Additionally, just this week the Steelers traded Santonio Holmes to the New York Jets after finding out he'd be suspended the first four games of the 2010 season, for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy.

But hang on. Right around the time Cedrick Wilson was cut for hitting his girlfriend, James Harrison broke down his girlfriend's door, snapped her cell phone in half, and slapped her across the face. Harrison faced no punishment from the Steelers' front office. Why? The company line was that each instance was viewed independently, and the two situations were not the same. To Pittsburgh apologists, the difference was a closed fist versus an open hand. To everyone else, the difference was that Wilson was a fourth string wide receiver, and Harrison was arguably their best linebacker. To fans in the rest of the league, it was a message saying that the Steelers are no different than any other team; on-field performance outweighs off-field transgressions.

It should then come as no surprise that Santonio Holmes was only traded once it was determined that he would miss four games in 2010 due to suspension. Pittsburgh likely felt they could make a statement and cut someone who was going to play at most 12 games anyways, so the decision was easier.

But now, with a large public outcry, specifically from the African-American community, the Steelers are faced with the decision on what to do with Ben Roethlisberger. The commissioner's office is expected to make a ruling soon on whether or not Roethlisberger will be punished through the NFL's personal conduct policy, and a 4+ game suspension by Roger Goodell could take the Rooneys off the hook. They'd be able to say, "We agree with the commissioner's decision, and consider the matter closed." Most teams have abided this general train of thought, and suspended players' teams have not been held accountable for discipline as a result (I cite Michael Vick on the Eagles, Adam Jones on the Titans/Cowboys, and Tank Johnson on the Bears/Cowboys). The commissioner has basically agreed to play bad cop for the whole league, allowing the teams to be the good cops.

And so now we come to the real question, and the title of this post. Should the Pittsburgh Steelers actively attempt to trade Ben Roethlisberger? I've heard and read that the rumors floating around about a trade to the Rams are untrue, and generally I believe that, since franchise quarterbacks rarely get traded. But we're not here to talk about "will it happen" or "won't it happen"; that's for the experts and the insiders. I'm an opinion-speaker, and so I will state my opinion.

If there were an offer from the Rams of this year's #1 overall pick and a first round pick next year, I think that the Steelers should think long and hard before turning it down. The reasons:

1. The window on this team's potential short-term success may already be closed. The defense is getting older, Hines Ward probably will be gone in two to three years, you just traded Santonio Holmes, and Troy Polamalu, the team's most popular and most important player, has two years left on his deal, and will almost certainly command a $10 million/year contract. That means he'll likely be gone as well.
   
   
2. The #1 overall pick is a great pick to have. If the team and Mike Tomlin both like Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen, you have the chance to draft a guy you believe will be your next franchise quarterback. If you're not wild about either of them, you can take Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy and have an elite defensive tackle for the next ten years. Furthermore, the opportunity to trade down always exists, and the Steelers have been fantastic at finding good talent between picks 10 and 75.
   
   
3. The resulting PR would be a boon. Right now, the Steelers are in a no-man's land between "character counts" and "anything to win." Among sports analysts or more passive sports fans, these minor hypocrisies are irrelevant. To the average sports fan, though, they're unacceptable. Most Steelers fans I've met take pride in their team's "no nonsense" stance when it comes to character issues, and are either emotionally torn or uninformed regarding James Harrison's infractions. Not that Pittsburgh needs much of a boost when it comes to fanship, but you can never have too many fans.

That's my theoretical analysis of the trade. My personal opinion? No way you trade him.

See, I fall into the "anything to win" camp much more distinctly than most. I think it's silly that no team has signed Barry Bonds. I thought it was ridiculous that Terrell Owens got deactivated for the second half of the season for saying he'd rather have Brett Favre as his quarterback than Donovan McNabb. Does that mean that I buy into guys like Albert Haynesworth, who seem to care very little about their team and winning? Sometimes, yes. But it's not like Roethlisberger hasn't shown that he wants to win. He leaves it all out on the field, and his track record is impressive, even if you're accounting for him being backed up by one of the best defenses in the world.

Of course, I also say you pay Troy Polamalu whatever he asks for.

Donovan Comes To Town

He's not exactly Santa Claus, but the addition of Donovan McNabb to the Redskins could be a nice gift for the people of Washington.

I'll state first, for the record, that I have always hated McNabb. I know some of it is due to a divisional bias I have against all other NFC East teams and players, but I've come around to Tony Romo a little bit, so it can't all be attributed to his team affiliation.

I don't know, between Rush Limbaugh and Terrell Owens, McNabb always seemed to be on the whiny, pitied side of things. Your wide receiver said he'd rather have another quarterback? Boo hoo. An historically racist political pundit talked about how the media had made you into a better quarterback than you actually are because you're black? I'm unsympathetic. Winning a Super Bowl, or at least treating the last two minutes of the Super Bowl like you want to win, cures all these issues.

Moreover, I've generally been unimpressed by his passing ability. As my Eagle fan colleagues will attest to, McNabb seems to short-arm or underthrow more passes than anyone in football. He's able to avoid interceptions this way, but it's frustrating to watch drives stall because your quarterback threw the ball into the ground. I do think he's one of the best quarterback runners I've ever seen, though; he's quick, he's elusive, and has great vision. If the Redskins' offensive line doesn't improve, that skill set will be uniquely useful.

Overall, though, McNabb has a far better track record of success than Jason Campbell or Rex Grossman, both individually and as a team leader. And with the salary cap being a non-factor, I have no problem with Washington taking on McNabb's salary, especially when Bruce Allen indicated that he had the authority to spend as much money as he saw fit this offseason. So I like the move. I think it makes the Redskins much better in 2010.

I do think it (rightly) changes how they will approach the NFL draft this April, and it's in that regard that I think this move might be the most valuable. I'll explain that in tomorrow's post, where I discuss the Redskins' first round pick in depth. Stay tuned.

The McNabb Trade

Over the weekend, I had crafted what I thought was a pretty interesting blog post regarding the Redskins' decision with the #4 overall pick in this April's NFL draft. I had marked Sam Bradford, Gerald McCoy, and Ndamukong Suh as the likely top three players selected, leaving Washington with a whole slew of comparably valued players to choose from.

And then, of course, the Redskins went out and traded for Donovan McNabb, and their whole team identity and potential draft strategy went out the window. So now I've got to craft a different blog post, and I'll do it, but you're not going to get it today. Today, you get my blog post telling you about the next blog post. Eat it.

Crabtree vs. Edwards

Since the announcements came within hours of each other yesterday, I figure there's no reason not to examine the two big NFL wide receiver acquisitions and compare their relative impacts on their teams, this year and going forward.

Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers

Crabtree was the 10th player selected in this year's NFL draft. He was perhaps a victim of Oakland's Al Davis becoming enamored with Darrius Heyward-Bey from the University of Maryland. Most projections I saw around draft day were putting him between pick five to the Browns and pick eight to the Jaguars, so while falling to tenth was probably disappointing, it was by no means a ridiculous dropoff. That's just one more puzzling part of the holdout that kept Crabtree unsigned until now.

Crabtree's holdout extended well into the season, and most fans saw it as a ridiculous sequence of events. The player was asking for money greater than players drafted in front of him because he dropped a few picks beyond where he expected to be drafted. These negotiations were the first anyone's heard of in which mock drafts and blog posts were produced as justification for more money by the player. It sounds like it was ludicrous.

But he's signed now, and it's time to assess how he can help this team. The reality is that the San Francisco 49ers have one of the weakest passing attacks in football (fifth fewest passing yards per game, and they're dead last in passing attempts per game), so adding some kind of talent might have a serious positive impact.

And make no mistake, Crabtree has got talent. There's a reason he was the #1 rated wide receiver on everybody's board in the 2009 NFL draft. He posted huge numbers and made big plays in two prolific years at Texas Tech, and he was almost always on the field for that offense, demonstrating impressive stamina. He's extremely competitive, very physical, and well-rounded. He's also more than happy to throw blocks, which fits perfectly with the 49ers run-first offense. He's only 6'1", but I don't expect his height to prevent him from becoming a solid receiver.

It's always difficult for rookie receivers to have substantial impact, and Crabtree won't likely be any different. Add to that his late arrival to the team, and San Francisco should probably be happy if he can simply run a few crisp patterns in each game over the next 3-4 weeks. Long-term, I expect Crabtree to develop into a Hines Ward type of player, and if he can provide the 49ers with some intensity and consistency, he can help bring this team all the way back from the dead.

Braylon Edwards, New York Jets

There are suspicions abound regarding the relationship between the Jets acquiring Edwards via trade and Crabtree agreeing to a deal with the 49ers. While everything I read says the Jets won't be found guilty of tampering with Crabtree, the timing of the two transactions is certainly conspicuous.

Anyways, let's focus on Braylon Edwards. Edwards had a monster season in 2007, registering 80 catches and 16 TDs, but he fell way back down to Earth last season. He caught just three touchdown passes all season, and he became famous for dropping pass after pass, regardless of quarterback. Interestingly, his yards per game fell from 80.6 right back down to around his previous average of 53.7, which begs the question: was Edwards' fantastic 2007 just an anomaly, and is that mediocre production what we should expect from year to year?

There's always the chance, of course, that his hands get better, and he suddenly becomes an elite WR, year in and year out. Unfortunately for the Jets, though, Edwards' contract runs out after this season, and there were murmurs that he was looking for $9 million a year on a new deal. If he doesn't improve, he's not worth $9 million a year, but if he does, he's worth more like $11 million a year. It's a "rock and a hard place" situation for New York, but my guess is they'd rather Edwards made their decision easy by becoming an elite wideout.

The Comparison

Let me just start by saying I don't think either of these players will be team-changers this season. Both the Jets and 49ers are solid teams right now, and they'll both get a little better by augmenting their receiving corps. Additionally, they're both run-first teams, so the pressure to succeed may be lessened. But I think Crabtree, despite being inexperienced and unproven, will make a greater positive impact on his team than Edwards will on his.

Crabtree's playing mentality fits beautifully with the 49ers' philosophies. He likes getting physical, he likes blocking, and he likes taking short plays and trying to break them for big plays. He's both a good complement to a strong running game, and a useful tool for a non-elite quarterback.

Edwards, meanwhile, will be expected to jump start the Jets' passing game, and bring balance to the Force...and the play-calling. The problem is, Edwards' talents are most effective when he can get loose and catch deep passes, which seem to always be difficult for young quarterbacks. Mark Sanchez looks like he's got the ability to be a nice NFL quarterback, but Edwards' presence may hinder the offense as much as it helps.

Statistically, their production might be fairly close. But I don't think we'll have any doubts at season's end which wide receiver was the bigger addition.

Projections (starting with week 5 statistics):
Michael Crabtree: 48 receptions, 625 yards, 5 TDs
Braylon Edwards: 40 receptions, 675 yards, 2 TDs

Disagree? Vote against me in the poll to the right, and we'll see what you guys think.

NHL Free Agency... East Edition Pt. 2

Back at the Free Agency/Draft Recap.. 7 teams left, and the two "sexiest" teams are included.

Here we go.

New York Rangers

The Rangers are a team that traditionally tries to win the N.Y. Yankees way. See good player. Target good player. Overpay for good player. Looks like this year they might have continued the trend by signing the often injured Martin Gaborik to a 5 year deal. They did manage to get rid of the ANCHOR of a contract held by Scott Gomez by trading him and his 16 goal scoring 7.5!!! million dollar a year deal to the Habs. They also snatched away veteran goon Donald Brashear from the Caps.

As long as the Rangers have "The King" Henrik Lundqvist in net, they are in the playoffs. But I'm not sure they they are good enough defensively to make a huge impact this year.

Why you should care:

Messier.

Goes to the papers and says " We WILL win tonight" before their Stanley Cup Final game against the Canucks in 1994. Scores a hat trick that night. What a captain. They go on to win the Cup.

Ottawa Senators

The definition of a classless move in sports is asking your team for a trade through the media. It makes it impossible for your team to get fair value. Well, Dany Heatley did just that, and then, when his team found a team that wanted to trade for him, he exercised his no-trade clause. Dick. It will be interesting to see how the fans treat Heats in his first game back in Ottawa, where it appears he will be playing whether he likes wants to or not.

They did nothing in free agency besides signing the pest Chris Niel. Looks like a tough year for the Sens.

Why you should care:

This is less why you should care, more why you should laugh. Movie tie-ins in a pregame ceremony that aren't just actually movie clips will ALWAYS FAIL.....

Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers traded for defensemen Chris Pronger, which is huge. This guy was made to play in Philly. Pronger always dances on that line of playing tough and playing cheap, which is a good assessment of the Flyers as a whole. They lost net presence specialist Mike Knuble to the Caps, but they still have Captain Mike Richards, Daniel Briere, and Simon Gagne to put in the goals.

They signed goalie Ray Emery who had been playing in Russia for the last 2 years to be the started. Flyer fans can't be too confident with that. Pronger will make the team better, but can Emery take them into the playoffs

Why you should care:

Mike Richards plays hockey like it's meant to be played. Scores goals, blocks shots, goes into the dirty areas, fights, kills penalties, he's a superstar paying the price most superstars don't.

Pittsburgh Penguins

When you win a championship in the NHL, the next season you're going to lose some guys. People will overpay for your free agents because they won a championship and now have seemingly more value.

Penguins have added nothing of note, but have retained two key free agents, the aging but still contributing Bill Geurin, and playoff specialist Ruslan Fedetenko. Both players left money and years on the table to return.

Penguins have lost, the tower of a defensemen Hal Gill, and the SUPER solid Rob Scuderi through free agency with the streaky sniper Petr Sykora probably also leaving.

But as a Pens fan, I ain't sweating it. Last year, after the Penguins lost in the finals, they lost the following players:

• Marion Hossa
• Ryan Malone
• Gary Roberts
• Jarkko Ruutu
• Georges Laraque
• Ty Conklin

THAT year they lost a big part of the team, and they won the Stanley Cup the following year. GM Ray Shero has shown he knows what moves to make at the trade deadline to make it to the Finals. And let's be honest, when you have 2 of the best 3 players in the league on your team, you're going to be good.

Why you should care:

Champs. And this song.

Tampa Bay Lighting

Jokes. Like anyone cares. After new ownership took over last year, things have been bad for the Lightning. Questionable trades, questionable Signings, no one coming to the games. The Lightning are a mess.

They added defensemen Mattius Ohlund who is a nice pick up, but they overpayed. Will last year's #1 pick Steve Stamkos make a difference this year?

I dont think so. Lecavelier is dying alive.

Why you should care:

Don't.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto is a team still in rebuild mode, but this year the additions of defensemen Hal Gill and Mike Komisarek will make this year's Leafs better than last year's. Flamboyant GM looked hard for a big splash signing at forward, but hasn't found one yet. I don't think the Leafs are done. Would Alexei Kovalev come to the Leafs?

Step in the right direction year, but not quite playoff caliber yet.

Why you should care:

If you have patience, you'll love this team.

Washington Capitals

The Caps had what should be considered a successful season last year, but losing in Game 7 always gives you a bad taste in your mouth. It was obvious in that series with the Pens that the Caps have enough skill to win. But did they have enough grit?

Well, they may have plugged this hole with the signing of Mike Knuble. This guy goes to the net and is never afraid of contact. Guys like Semin need a Knuble on their line. Even though he is on the bad side of 35, it's a great pick up.

They did lose Federov and Victor Kozlov. Kozlov was just another one of the Caps skilled but soft players, so I think Knuble is an upgrade. Fedorov's leadership will surely be missed, but he wasn't a big producer throughout the season or playoffs. Tough guy Donald Brashear also walked, but tough guys, no matter how loved by the fans, never make or break a lineup.

Capitals will no doubt be a top team in the East. Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Semin will take care of that. But do they have enough toughness to advance further in the playoffs? Will this year be goalie Varlamov's true coming out party? Will Nylander do ANYTHING to earn his 5 million a year? Will Ovechkin ever backcheck? (had to get one stinger in here)

I think it still will take a trade deadline deal for the Caps to move past the second round.

Why you should care:

Ovechkin vs. Crosby meeting every Playoffs should be awesome for years to come.

30 down! That's all for me. Enjoy the summer. Hockey Rules.

NHL Free Agency... East Edition Pt. 1

On to the more interesting and usually more entertaining Eastern Conference.

I always wondered how different conferences get their own personalities. I can't speak for other sports, but in hockey, the East is the more skilled, scoring conference, while the west is the more smash-mouth, grind it out conference. How does that happen? Some things I'll never know.

Here we go.

Atlanta Thrashers

Thrashers are a franchise still searching for their first playoff win in their short history. The insanely good Kovulchuk is really the only player of note on this team. In free agency, they added the solid forward Nik Antropov to help Kovulchuk score goals, and a returning strong no-name back line should have this team fighting for a playoff spot. The big problem on the horizon is they have to convince Kovulchuk to resign next summer. He will demand HUGE numbers to stay in the Atlanta.

Why you should care:

Kovulchuk and Crosby have a little fued that started with this.

Boston Bruins

Over the last two years, the Bruins have returned to their old form, being a bad ass. They went after Hossa, but lost out on him to Chicago. They didn't do much in free agency but I don't think they needed too. They were close last year (conference semifinals), and they are maybe a trade or two away from getting over that hump this year. Definitely a top 3 seed again this year.


Why you should care:

Tim Thomas is old school. Who needs technique?




Buffalo Sabres

After losing Daniel Briere and Chris Drury a few years ago, the Sabres have been a team without any identity. Sure they have the 40 goal scorer Thomas Vanek and the solid goaltending of Ryan Miller, but nothing much after that. They lost a defensemen in Spacek, and gained a defensemen in Montador in free agency. Not much different than last year for the Sabres. They barely missed the playoffs last year, and will probably do the same this year.

Why you should care:

Worst uniform change in history.
From This: ( see the Buffalo AND the Sabres??)
To This:
Let me introduce you to the BuffleSlug
Carolina Hurricanes

The Canes came from the 6th seed last year all the way to the conference finals. Their goalie Cam Ward got hot at exactly the right time. In Free Agency they didn't do much except lock up some of their own important pieces to long term deals. The Canes will go as far as Eric Staal and Cam Ward can take them. 6,7,8 seed seems about right.

Why you should care:

Last year they earned the nickname the Cardiac Canes for this reason. Brodeur=STUNNED

Florida Panthers

The Panthers lost a HUGE piece with the loss of D-man David Boumeester. Panthers will let in at least 25 more goals this season. Mark it down. They did lock up the exciting David Booth to a long term deal after he emerged last year as a real goal scorer. They also signed Marty Brodeur's understudy Scott Clemmenson in goal who did a good job backing up when Marty went down last year. Florida is one of those teams that will always have a tough time. It's not really a free agent destination. They had to draft and trade well to compete. No playoffs again in Sunrise, Florida.

Why you should care:

Check out their Radio Announcer. Gauranteed LOLz. Personal fav 2:55

Montreal Canadiens

Le Bleu-Blanc-et-Rouge lost a lot this offseason. Alex Kovalev, captain Saku Koivu being the biggest names. But to counter that, they signed a lot as well. They acquired the highly overpaid small center Scott Gomez from the Rangers, and three forwards from New Jersey: Gionta, Pandolfo and Brylin. The Habs also got the 30 goal man Mike Camilleri from the Flames. On the defensive side, they added Jaroslav Spacek from the Sabres and the huge Hal Gill from the champion pens. Lots of new names, but lost of big names lost as well.

Montreal was looking for a identity change after a dissapointing 100-year celebration season. Change they got, but improvement? I'm not sure.

Why you should care:

In Montreal 1. Hockey 2. Everything Else.
Also they sing the HELL out of their national anthem. And it's ALWAYS televised. Some things are more important than another commercial. I wish America would follow suit on this one.





New Jersey Devils

Devils are about one man. Goalie Martin Brodeur. As much as I truly hate him, I have to respect him. The Devils ALWAYS make the playoffs because of him. They are slowly shedding their image of being a defensive, sleep-inducing team, and are becoming more of an offesive team. But this off-season the Devils lost a lot of peices and havent added anything yet. Still, when you have Brodeur, you're making the playoffs.

Why you should care:

Brodeur.

New York Islanders

There is a bit of a buzz around the Islanders since they drafted John Tavares #1 in the draft. This kid broke Gretzky's records in junior hockey and should make an immediate impact. But will it be enough? I think not. Caps drafted Ovechkin, one year sucking ensued. Pens drafted Crosby, one year of sucking ensued. Islanders need to suck one more year to get another high draft pick to be a real playoff threat.

Why you should care?

Is this kid the real deal? Only thing we know now is he's not an exciting interview

23 down 7 left!

NHL Free Agency... West Edition Pt. 2

Back at it. Let's finish up the Western Conference.

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings have added two big pieces with acquiring Ryan Smyth from the Avalanche and "The Piece" Rob Scuderi from the Stanley Cup Penguins. They probably paid too much for both players, but they needed them.

Ryan Smythe is one of the NHL players I love. Not that tall, not that strong, not that skilled, but he works his ass off and will pay the price to score goals. Just looking at his face you can see the miles hes put in. His front 6 teeth are all fake. But with all that, he really isnt a #1 center. He's usually good for 30 goals but no more. Every team that wins a cup has a Ryan Smyth.

Scuderi is just a rock. His price rose tremendously with his Stanley Cup win. He scored one goal all season last year, but his job is to stop pucks from going in, not scoring them himself. He's one of those guys that when you see their number flash by the screen, you know this shift will be safe.

Question mark for the Kings is definitely the goaltending. But this year they should see the playoffs.

Why you should care:

Last week I met former Kings prospect Yutaka Fukufuji at the ice rink here in my town in Japan. I asked him, "How was the NHL?" He looked at me, smiled, and said "Fast." He played just one season for the Kings and is now playing in Japan.

Minnesota Wild

Minnesota is one of those teams always fighting with Devils for the title of the most boring style of play in hockey. And they sell out EVERY game. I mean EVERY game in their history. Minnesota people love thier hockey. But new coach this year is promising a more up-tempo game.

Well, they lost the oft-injured but highly skilled Gaborik and gained the slightly less skilled Havlat. Minnesota is always right at the edge of being good. This year I don't think they did enough to change that. They will probably fight for that 6,7,8 seed spot again this year.

Why you should care:

Their logo is kind of weird.

Nashville Predators

The Preds did nothing in free agency besides sign a few of their own guys to new contracts. I don't expect much from them this year, but I've always liked their captain Jason Arnott. Last year he put up the highest goal total (33) of his career at 34 years old. But I get the feeling he wouldn't mind a trade deadline deal to a cup contender before his career is over.

Nashville is one of those teams in a non traditional market that have to OVERPAY for free agents. I mean, would a Canadian player rather play in Montreal or Nashville? Other teams like this are Columbus, Florida, and Phoenix.

Why you should care:

They love knocking each other out after goals.

Phoenix Coyotes

You know you're not good when your coach is the only person people can name from your team. This team is now bankrupt and looking for buyers. Possibly will move out of Phoenix. Yeah, like any free agent was going to sign here.

Coyotes are a mess. No way they make the playoffs.

Why you should care:

You shouldn't but I like watching Gretzky yell.



San Jose Sharks

Sharks have been pissing their fans off for years now. Awesome regular season, lose quickly in the playoffs. They promised their fans some changes after their current playoff exit, but didn't really do much. They are still good and will likely again be in the top three seeds. But can they get over that hump they've been stuck in for the last 3 years? I wouldn't be surprised if they pull a trade before the season to chance something up. They need a little more grit to touch the silver.

Why you should care:

Joe Thornton. Second best passer in the game. Also listen to this big-time play by play guy. This is how its done. You can tell he's genuinely pumped as hell.

St. Louis Blues

Last year the Blues surprised everyone and made the playoffs, only to be bounced in 4 games. But it was still a year of much improvement. With young defensemen Johnson and the scorer Kariya coming back from injury this year, the Blues should only get better. Last year, TJ Oshie came out of nowhere and became a star. He should only improve. I think the Blues are not elite, but a solid playoff caliber team. Their shaved head goalie Mason really carries them.

Why you should care:

Paul Kariya will always be a bad ass in my mind because of this game while he was a Duck. Watch for the puff of air on his visor as the life comes back into him. Serious concussion, comes back and scores. In what other sports do athletes give more to win? Kariya's face after his goal still gives me goosebumps. What a human.

Vancouver Canucks

Vancouver will always be an alright team as long as they keep their insane goalie Roberto Luongo. They just signed their most important forwards Daniel and Henrik Sedin (they're twins) to long term deals, and also got the winger Samuelson from the Wings. Sundin is still undecided about playing next year or not. But the Canucks are for real. They still need one solid defender to be elite, but they will definitely be there in the running for the Cup.

Why you should care:

It's a real hockey town. When I was in Vancouver for a week a few years ago me and my friends were walking down the street. We walk past a restaurant and everyone inside is standing looking at the TV. I mean EVERYONE had stopped. Waiters, Bartenders, everyone. I ask whats happening, and someone tells me, "Its a shootout, the restaurants stops until the shoot out is over." A REAL hockey town.

15 down 15 to go! The East is NEXT.

NBA Draft Debriefing 2009 Part 2: How Did They Do?

Now that we've addressed how those of us who don't get paid anything did in their draft day projections, let's look at how those who get paid millions did. We'll split this business into a couple of Top 5 lists, since that's how I like to look at things.

Top 5 Picks (quality and value)

1. Blake Griffin, Clippers, #1 overall. Sometimes, the best pick you can make is the one everyone knows you're going to do anyways. I don't want to repeat myself too much, but suffice it to say that I think he'll be a big time player in the NBA.
2. DeJuan Blair, Spurs, #37 overall. I stand by my statement that Blair was worth taking in the top 10. Getting a top 10 guy in the second round is awesome.
3. Ty Lawson, Nuggets (from Timberwolves), #18 overall. Lawson is a gamer, and it looks like he'll have plenty of teams to show up. In Denver, he can be a star, a perfect transition piece from Chauncey Billups.
4. Brandon Jennings, Bucks, #10 overall. The more I've seen of Jennings, and after seeing a brief interview with him last night, I'm sold. There's no doubt in my mind he can be as good as any point guard in this draft.
5. Jordan Hill, Knicks, #8 overall. The Knicks were undoubtedly disappointed that Stephen Curry got swiped one pick ahead of them, but I think I've got Hill ahead of Curry in terms of potential. People worry about Hill's commitment, but I think the Knicks got a guy who could explode...in a good way.

Top 5 Trades (quality and value)

1. Spurs acquire Richard Jefferson from Bucks for Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas, and Fabricio Oberto. The Spurs basically traded two crummy big men and Bowen for a dramatic improvement over Bowen. Lots of teams will cite "financial flexibility" when they make trades; I prefer to look at "getting better" as the main factor.
2. Wizards acquire Randy Foye and Mike Miller from Timberwolves for the #5 pick (Ricky Rubio), Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, and Oleksiy Pecherov. I like Songaila as bench depth, but the other two guys were just bodies. Rubio might make this deal look silly later, but by adding Foye and Miller, Washington now has five proven scorers. Do something, Flip.
3. Magic acquire Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson from Nets for Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston, and Tony Battie. Lee was a solid producer for Orlando last year, but Alston is a constant headache. Carter, for all his flashiness, is a reliable scorer who can also fill up the rest of the stat sheet.
4. Knicks acquire Darko Milicic from Grizzlies for Quentin Richardson and cash. Richardson had become an overpaid underperformer in a crowded backcourt. Milicic gives the Knicks a solid defender with decent hands who can start fast breaks in Mike D'Antoni's high-powered offense.
5. Cavaliers acquire Shaquille O'Neal from Suns for Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, Cavs' 2010 second round pick, and $500,000. I'm not in the camp that thinks Shaq is going to be the difference in Cleveland, but he's certainly better than Ben Wallace. Moreover, he's got a $20 million contract that ends after this upcoming season, so even if he's a total bust, he'll have value for teams like Memphis, who'll undoubtedly be looking to shed more payroll, just as soon as they find any.

I'd like to write a section about the Wizards, and perhaps I'll get an article together in the future, but if I were to write it now, it'd basically just be re-hashing the Mike Miller trade and the passing on DeJuan Blair. Let's wait a little while for some new news. See you next year, NBA draft.

NBA Draft Debriefing 2009 Part 1: How Did We Do?

The NBA draft is in the books, and while the talent level of the players available in this draft may not be as exciting as it was in past seasons, the amount of talent that changed teams over the past week is astonishing. We'll start with a review of my picks and how they compare to what actually happened. The number after the player is how early or late I was in picking them. A plus sign means I was early, a minus sign means I had them going later.

1. Clippers - My pick: Blake Griffin. Correct!
   
2. Grizzlies - My pick: Ricky Rubio. +3
   
3. Thunder - My pick: Hasheem Thabeet. -1
   
4. Kings - My pick: Jordan Hill. +4
5. Timberwolves - My pick: Tyreke Evans. -1
   
6. Timberwolves - My pick: Stephen Curry. +1
7. Warriors - My pick: DeJuan Blair. +1...ROUND
8. Knicks - My pick: James Harden. -5
9. Raptors - My pick: DeMar DeRozan. Correct!
   
10. Bucks - My pick: Gerald Henderson. +2
11. Nets - My pick: Jrue Holiday. +6
12. Bobcats - My pick: Brandon Jennings. -2
13. Pacers - My pick: Terrence Williams. -2
14. Suns - My pick: Austin Daye. +1

So obviously DeJuan Blair was my big misread. How he managed to slip through all those teams at the bottom of the first round is utterly beyond me. I knew I put him higher on my projections than most mock drafts had him, but the fact that no playoff team thought he was worth their first round pick is astonishing.

Jeff Van Gundy said all night that maybe the most reliably predictable aspect of a game is rebounding, and Blair was a monster on the boards. He's long, he's strong, and he's got a serious motor. No joke, when the Wizards passed on Blair with their second round pick, I felt like I was watching a championship piece slip through their fingers. And of course, the San Antonio Spurs were happy to gobble him up at pick 37.

The other surprise for me was Jonny Flynn going at number six to Minnesota. He's undersized even for a point guard, and you simply don't find many NBA stars who are undersized. I honestly like Ty Lawson more than Flynn. Time will tell whether I'm seeing this correctly, but I stand by my mock.

Other than Blair and Flynn, though, I think we here at Joe & Joe did a pretty good job of handicapping the draft. We got two lottery picks correct, four more we missed by just one slot, and two more by just two slots. That's pretty good in my book.

Part 2 of our 2009 NBA Draft Debriefing will look at how teams tried to improve themselves through the draft, as well as through trades in the days leading up to the draft. And I'll probably bring up DeJuan Blair seven or eight more times. See you then.

The Old Redskins Are Back

Well, after a year-long hiatus, the old Redskins have returned. Last offseason, Washington made very few waves in the free agent market, instead focusing on the draft and holding onto their own players. Early this morning, the Redskins re-signed DeAngelo Hall for $54 million over six years, then just hours later completed a deal to bring Albert Haynesworth, the jewel of this year's free agent class, to town. The price? A cool $100 million over seven years.

I'm not sure how I feel about the policy as a whole, but I do like both of the players. Whether they'll be worth their price, that's something we'll find out over the next two, three, four years. The local sports talk radio station had a free agency special this morning, where I heard a couple of interesting things.

1. One of the Redskins top two corners from the beginning of 2008 will most likely not be back. The initial word is that Carlos Rogers is being shopped around; trading him would save a few million dollars towards the cap, though there would be a cap penalty that would mitigate the savings. The other option is to cut Shawn Springs, which is something we've heard about since late in the season as being at least a possibility. Springs ended up playing both corner and safety last season, safety more so after the 'Skins acquired Hall. Cutting springs would free up $6 million in cap room. With Hall obviously locking down one of the starting spots, it's unlikely that Washington will spend big money on a nickel corner, so unless Springs moves to safety full time (where he'd be far more expensive than current safety Chris Horton), one of these guys is gone.
2. Local radio host Andy Pollin still believes (and I'm starting to see it more) that Jason Taylor will be cut by the Redskins this offseason. Taylor will count as $8 million against the cap this year, and because he was acquired via trade, there is no cap penalty for releasing him. That means $8 million in savings by cutting a guy who had 29 tackles and 3.5 sacks in 13 games for the 'Skins, and will be turning 35 around opening day. I'd still be surprised if they cut him, but that's a lot of money to be putting into a guy who could certainly be unimpressive this season.
3. Vinny Cerrato, Executive Vice President of Football Operations, came on the show briefly and said that the Redskins were actually slightly outbid on both players, but were still able to sign them. Apparently, the Haynesworth deal has about $15 million in incentives, so maybe he was referring to the base salaries. Still, I like performance incentives; they're a good way to hedge your investment while still giving the player an opportunity to make a lot of money.

I can't say for sure that these were the moves that needed to be made, but they differ a little bit from some of the more famous Redskins deals in the past. First, they're two young players. This isn't Bruce Smith and Deion Sanders, these are youngsters who should still have plenty of mileage left in them. Second, they weren't brought in to band-aid the problem. Six- and seven-year contracts are long-term investments (though Derrick Dockery would disagree), so Hall and Haynesworth should be staples of the defense for years to come.

Do I wish we could be more like the Steelers and Giants, drafting smart and only going into free agency to grab role players? Of course. Every team would like their draft picks to all work out. But it's become clear that the Redskins are pretty bad at drafting, so why not spend your money on free agents? I've never doubted that everyone in the franchise, from ownership on down, has wanted to win, and that's really all I can ask.

Top 5 Most Lopsided Deals In Our Keeper League

There has been a lot of talk over the past couple of years about some of the lopsided deals that have happened in our baseball keeper league (for those of you not in the league, you can click here and have a look at most of our history). But which deals actually ended up being the most lopsided?

Well, I'll take a crack at it. I won't be including any deals from the 2008 season, because we don't really know what to make of those deals just yet. Besides, I've found that as time has gone on, the deals have gotten substantially more reasonable.

Here we go:

1. Mercer AutoWreckers trade Hanley Ramirez and Jeff Francoeur to Stewies SexyParties for Freddie Sanchez and Jeremy Hermida, July 2006 - At the time, I really didn't think this was that terrible a trade. Hanley was a speedy rookie who was playing pretty well, but Sanchez was leading the NL in batting average (and did end up winning the batting title). Obviously, though, Hanley has become arguably the most valuable player in fantasy baseball, and neither Sanchez nor Hermida are fantasy starters.
   
2. The Usual Suspects trade Juan Uribe, Danny Bautista, and their 2005 11th round pick to ________ for Lance Berkman and their 2005 13th round pick, May, 2004 - Yes, unfortunately, the top two lopsided trades in our history were both at the expense of the AutoWreckers (formerly named "_______"). Bautista is out of baseball, and Uribe's career has slipped every year since 2004. Meanwhile, Berkman, while inconsistent, has been a keeper every year since. Chip was able to trade two guys who will be taken in the first two rounds this year and still finish ahead of me last season. Ouch.
   
3. Cleveland Enforcers trade John Lackey and their 2007 4th round pick to Those Guys for Andruw Jones, February 2007 - While Lackey has blossomed into a star pitcher, the real reason this trade is on this list is because of how colossally bad Andruw Jones has been. Colossally, inexplicably bad.
   
4. Riders of Rohan trade their 2006 5th round pick to Big Bounty Blokes for Zach Duke and their 2006 14th round pick, February 2006 - A bit of a mistake for the Riders, Zach Duke ended up doing substantial damage to my ERA and WHIP. I probably should've known better, but I wanted to get on the train and pick up one of these young stud pitchers that everyone seemed to have. Now, all I want is six Greg Maddux's on my team.
   
5. Cleveland Enforcers trade Eric Gagne and Jim Edmonds to The Usual Suspects for Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera, July 2004 - While the value difference on this trade is fairly substantial, I pushed it down to #5 because the Suspects had a plan, and the trade didn't kill the plan. They moved a couple of youngsters in an attempt to get the premier closer in baseball at the time and make a run at the title. While they fell just a half a point short, certainly Gagne's 22 second-half saves didn't hurt the Suspects' title run.

Think I'm wrong? Comment to your heart's content.

Buy, Sell, Buy, Sell

This is a point in the fantasy football season where a deal can make or break your season. Football is particularly tough to make predictions for, because the game is so violent and so dynamic that many players can lose their jobs due to injury or ineffectiveness. This is particularly true of running backs, which of course are the backbone of most fantasy football teams (and is the reason I recommend investing heavily in your quarterback and wide receivers).

So how do you know what moves you should make, and what moves you shouldn't make? Well, there's no surefire way to tell, and anyone who says they can is lying. It's a lot like poker in that regard. The idea isn't to make one right decision by acquiring one specific player. The way you win is by making as many correct decisions as possible. This includes waiver acquisitions and making trades, but also includes not making trades.

Here are five guys you should buy low/not trade. Following that will be a list of five guys you should sell high/not trade for.

Buy Low/Wait It Out

1. Chad Johnson - You may not like his attitude, but his talent is as good as anyone in the league not named Moss or Owens. Five straight years of 1250+ yards and 7+ TDs says to me that this slump won't hold.
2. Ryan Grant - I don't think he'll be able to get to last year's post-bye-week pace (roughly 100 yards and a TD per game), but he's going to be productive. And as the weather demands more of a ground game, Grant will rise to the occasion.
3. Steven Jackson - Chances are, his owner won't part with him for that much under the pre-season value, but if you can get any kind of discount on Jackson, go get him. He's a no-brainer fantasy stud.
4. Torry Holt - Word is, the first thing new coach Jim Haslett did when he took over the Rams was tell Al Saunders to give Holt the damn ball. Good enough for me.
5. Matt Hasselbeck - When he lost Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson, and Deion Branch early, you knew Hasselbeck was going to have a rough start. But Engram and Branch are getting healthier, and Hasselbeck is too good to be held down for too long. Also, the Seahawks play the Rams and Jets in weeks 15 and 16, not bad playoff matchups.

Sell High/Don't Buy The Hype

1. Brett Favre - It's a nice story, but Favre isn't going to have many more 3 touchdown games, let alone 6 touchdown games. I think he'll still be productive, but if you can find someone who thinks he's an elite level QB, let them pay for him.
2. Reggie Bush - His point totals are bumped by three (count 'em, three) return touchdowns. Teams will stop punting to him, and with Deuce McAllister getting healthier, Bush will turn into just a solid receiver.
3. Kurt Warner - Warner is only a few weeks removed from being uncertain as the starter in Arizona, and only a week removed from a 6-turnover game. If the Cardinals begin to slip and Warner returns to his giveaway ways, I could actually see the team going with Matt Leinart. That means, sell sell sell.
4. Felix Jones - Jones won't get more than 8 carries a game, and some play in the return game. But his scoring right now isn't bad for a flex option or backup RB. Move him now and get someone you can rely on.
5. Laveranues Coles - Coles' season numbers are bumped by the Arizona game, when he had 44% of his receptions, 41% of his yardage, and 75% of his TDs. Make a move while his averages still look impressive.
   

Steve Novak = Marcus Camby?

You'll all be happy to know that Steve Novak was just acquired by the Clippers in a deal similar to the one the Clippers swung to acquire Marcus Camby: Houston gets the choice to swap second round picks in the 2011 draft.

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What an obscene system.

Better Trade: Jeremy Shockey or Jason Taylor?

As I'm sure most of you have heard by now, the NFL has seen a couple of big moves this week. Jeremy Shockey and Jason Taylor have both been traded for similar packages this week. Shockey goes to the Saints in exchange for 2nd and 5th round picks in the 2009 draft, while Taylor heads to Washington for a 2nd rounder in 2009 and a 6th rounder in 2010. So, as always on Joe & Joe Sports, we wonder, "Who got the better deal?"

First, it's pretty fair to say the two players were acquired for roughly the same value. The Saints and Redskins figure to have similar records this season (the Skins were a game better last year), so the 2nd round picks will probably be of similar value. And between a 5th rounder this year and a 6th rounder next year, while you'd obviously rather have the 5th, the difference is mostly irrelevant. At least these two football teams have helped us out in that regard.

We'll start with the money end of things, which is often important in football. Jason Taylor will count about $8 million a year for the next two years against the salary cap (the same cost for Christian Guzman; funny how things tie together like that). Shockey, meanwhile, will make between $5 million and $6 million a year for the next three years. Both players will be on the high end of their position with regards to cap numbers (Shockey was 4th among tight ends last year, Taylor was 2nd among DEs).

It's obviously difficult to compare two players who don't play the same position, and even more difficult to compare two players on different sides of the ball. But hey, that's what I get paid (absolutely nothing) to do. So here goes: Jason Taylor was a better acquisition.

I think the three factors that you can use to evaluate any acquisition are as follows: health, production, team need. If the player is normally healthy, is a good bet for production, and the team improves itself substantially at that position, it's a good acquisition.

You can count the number of games Jason Taylor has missed over the past eight years on your tusks. That's right, zero. He's missed zero games over the past eight seasons (and you, hopefully, have zero tusks). Health: check.

As far as the kind of production you can expect from the 2006 defensive player of the year, well, he should be pretty good. Over the same eight year period discussed above, he's averaged 12.5 sacks per season, placing in the top 5 in sacks in five different seasons. He had 11 sacks last year, more than any Redskin. He's no Michael Strahan, but he's pretty damn good.

So that's health and production. Team need? The 'Skins were the second worst passing defense and had the third fewest sacks among playoff teams. Then they lost Philip Daniels for the season on the first day of training camp. I don't know of many teams that have needed a defensive end more than Washington did after that first practice. So that's the trio, health, production, team need. This move has got it all, and it looks like a very good move for my home town team.

But what about the Shockey deal? Certainly the Saints didn't get taken for a ride. Again, I'll look at health, production, and team need. The most obvious here is team need; the Saints have been absmal at the tight end position for years now. They've tried a few different guys (Boo Williams, Eric Johnson, Ernie Conwell), and all have been failures. Shockey is certain to perform better than any Saints' tight end since Hoby Brenner, a standout from the mid-80s. So we can definitely check off "team need" as something this trade addresses.

I do want to make one additional point about the "team need" aspect, though. New Orleans had the 3rd most passing yards in football last year. It might be true that the team has been lacking at tight end for a while, but it doesn't seem like the offense suffered. So while the improvement at the position is legitimate, the improvement of the unit is questionable.

Health? A little more questionable. He's never played 16 games in a season, and is coming off of a postseason where he didn't play a snap. Still, he's played in at least 14 games in five of his six seasons, and I don't think anyone would accuse him of being soft. The health isn't a sure thing, but it's football, everyone gets hurt.

Production is where Shockey is actually a little suspect. His best year was his rookie season, when he posted his career highs in yards (894) and receptions (74). He's improved his touchdown numbers (from 2 in 2002 to 7 in '05 and '06), and certainly touchdowns are important for tight ends, but he dropped back down to only 3 last year. That's not enough to pay the bills; it wasn't enough in New York, and it won't be enough in New Orleans.

As I said, I like the Taylor deal better for the Redskins, but I'll concede that the Shockey trade can turn out just as well. Shockey never seemed fully suited to the glamor and pressure of playing in New York City. He may find the fans and media in Louisiana more to his liking, and his production could improve accordingly. And, if Shockey can become as valuable as some of the other elite tight ends (Antonio Gates, Kellen Winslow), he can actually help the Saints save some money: high caliber tight ends don't get paid like high caliber wide receivers do.

Either way, both teams look to have made a big splash, and it'll be very interesting to see how things turn out as the season progresses.

Update: Jason Taylor to the Redskins

Only a few hours later, my hope has become a reality: Jason Taylor was traded to the Redskins. Granted, giving up a second round pick may come back to bite them soon enough, but with a suddenly extremely depleted defensive line, and a defense still looking for its identity after the shocking loss of Sean Taylor last season, a surefire Hall of Famer like Jason Taylor seems like a worthwhile addition.