WWE Hell in a Cell 2017 Predictions

EDIT: I completely forgot Corbin/Styles when I wrote this initially. Added it below.

First off, I think Hell in a Cell is a terrible name for a pay-per-view. I don't think the match stands out as so different from a regular steel cage match that you need to name the event for it (unlike Royal Rumble or Elimination Chamber), and now that we're into having more than one Hell in a Cell matches in a given card, it's not even describing the main event.

Also, in general, I'm not really into the death-defying leaps that typically "make" a Hell in a Cell match, so I could really just do without the match type altogether.

But, this is what we've got, so this is what we'll predict.

Chad Gable and Shelton Benjamin vs. The Hype Bros

The problem with this is that it's most likely just incredibly predictable. I assume that the Hype Bros will lose, probably as a result of some mistake Mojo Rawley makes, and that Zack Ryder will turn heel on him, and ho hum boring next match please.

In a perfect world, the Hype Bros would actually win the match as a result of Gable turning on Shelton Benjamin for the sole reason of, "You're not Jason Jordan, you could never be Jason Jordan! I AM THE AMERICAN ALPHA!" That'd be cool, and it would preserve one of a short list of tag teams that have joint names.

But, I can't predict that. I predict disappointment.

Winner: Gable and Benjamin via pin

Randy Orton vs. Rusev

You can't convince me that Randy Orton was willing to do the job to Jinder Mahal three times in a row without some guarantees that he was going to win at least his next couple feuds. This is one of those feuds. Rusev is the guy who should have gotten Jinder's push, but alas, he's from Bulgaria and Jinder is from India. It's a numbers game...because apparently according to the WWE writing staff, good characters and storylines are less likely to sell the Network than "Hey that guy is from where I'm from!"

Lame.

Winner: Orton via RKOOUTTANOWHERE

Smackdown Tag Team Championship Match in Hell in a Cell: The New Day (c) vs. The Usos

It's been a pretty good feud, and their matches have actually been really, really good. But all good things must come to an end, so this match has to end in a way that sets up the future for the tag team titles. That means the heels have to win.

The only other tag teams that even exist on Smackdown are all faces, at least currently. You've got The Hype Bros (who I expect to not exist after this PPV), Gable and Benjamin (the likely next opponent for The Usos), and Breezango (an outside shot at the next title feud, or more likely to feud with whomever has been destroying their locker room/office, probably NXT's Authors of Pain). Regardless of who's next, they're all faces, which means the heels have to have the titles.

Or you put The Ascension into a tag team title feud. It would be funny to watch The New Day make fun of them for a month, but that'd be a short ass feud, and you'd be back to square one in a month.

Winner: The Usos via pin

Smackdown Women's Championship: Natalya (c) vs. Charlotte

Initially I went into a diatribe about the problems I have with the women's division in WWE, but it got way out of hand. Maybe an article for another time.

I think Charlotte should be the champion, but that would translate to an awfully short title reign for Natalya. Is it possible this is the first of two or three matches, culminating in a Charlotte victory? Perhaps. But I know Charlotte should win the title, so I'm not going to pick against that happening ASAP.

Winner: Charlotte via submission

Dolph Ziggler vs. Bobby Roode

I go back and forth here. Ziggler really deserves to win a feud here one of these days. He's charismatic, an incredible performer, and he's put over plenty of guys of late. But on the other side of the coin, bringing up Bobby Roode from NXT (where he was absolutely electric) to have him lose his first pay-per-view match seems an odd choice.

In the end, I think Roode as a face can survive a loss, especially some heel-ish loss like a foreign object. Ziggler coming to the ring as The Mountie with the shock stick would be hilarious and give them an easy weapon to use. Heck, maybe he could even get Jimmy Hart to manage him in a one-off.

Winner: Ziggler via pin (dirty)

United States Title Match: A.J. Styles (c) vs. Baron Corbin

I think we're supposed to think of this as a match that Styles should win because he's a better wrestler. He is a better wrestler, but that's why he should lose it. Get him out of the US title picture and into the WWE title picture.

One of the hallmark moments of the Money in the Bank match this year was the staredown between Nakamura and Styles. As you'll read below, I think Nakamura will win the WWE title on Sunday, and there's no reason to wait for Nakamura/Styles. Set it up for Survivor Series. They could probably do a 3-4 match run all the way up to Wrestlemania, and we'd eat it up. Do it.

I'll mention just for posterity that Baron Corbin is Styles' opponent.

Winner: Corbin via pin

WWE Championship Match: Jinder Mahal (c) vs. Shinsuke Nakamura

Lord in heaven.

I gotta tell you, I find Jinder Mahal incredibly boring to watch wrestle. He's stiff in a bad way, strong in a bad way, and he can't sell. Shinsuke is basically the opposite on all counts. I would be delighted to watch Nakamura take down Mahal and win the title on Sunday, but I just can't figure out a reason why you wouldn't have that happen at SummerSlam if you wanted it to happen.

Oh wait. The WWE thinks they're smarter than anyone else. I'm sure some idiot in a meeting somewhere said, "Let's not waste Nakamura winning the title at SummerSlam, where we're already gonna have Seth and Dean win. Let's save it for Hell in a Cell.

It's stupid, and I 100% believe it's what's going to happen.

Winner: Nakamura via pin

Hell in a Cell Match: Kevin Owens vs. Shane McMahon

I have to admit, my expectations are high for this match. As I said before, I'm not a big fan of the whole high spot style, and Hell in a Cell is purely a high spot style match. But Owens and Shane are so good at executing a story in the ring, so good at putting on a great match, just so good at wrestling that I'm expecting a really fun, really brutal, really exciting match.

I'm also not certain how the story advances from here. Obviously this will not be the end of the saga, so the match could go either way. I've heard theories that Triple H will interfere on one side or the other, or the Undertaker, or Sami Zayn, or Daniel Bryan, or one of the other McMahons (Vince or Stephanie, Linda obviously is busy being part of Donald Trump's cabinet).

In the end, my general policy is to pick the guy who benefits most from going over, so I'm going with Owens. You don't want Owens to lose clean to Shane, so if he does end up losing, it has to be with some kind of interference. If Shane wins clean, it'll just be another sign that WWE is clueless on what to do with KO, when he could be the next Triple H. Seriously, he's that good.

Winner: Owens via pin

2012 NHL Playoffs - Conference Finals

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

#8 Los Angeles Kings over #3 Phoenix Coyotes, 7 games

This is a matchup of the two hottest playoff goalies this year, which is actually pretty common come playoff time. A hot goalie is going to win most games, and a team that wins most of their games usually progresses deeply into the playoffs.

Jonathan Quick might be the best goalie in the world right now, and he's got a team in front of him that's hitting stride at exactly the right time. Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar, and especially Dustin Brown are showing a lot of chemistry, and grit, and skill, and that combination is deadly. Drew Doughty had a rough regular season, but finally looks comfortable again at the point. But perhaps the most noteworthy point to make about the Kings is that they've beaten the #1 seed Canucks and #2 seed Blues, and lost a total of one game in those two series. They obviously know how to handle top-end talent.

Then again, the Coyotes don't have a ton of top end talent. Keith Yandle is an elite defenseman, and Shane Doan is skilled and tough, but outside of them, most of the Coyotes big-minute guys are guys past their prime, not yet in their prime, or quiet, shut-down players.

I've become a big fan of the way the Coyotes play, and every interview I see with Doan or their blossoming goalie Mike Smith makes me like the guys personally. I've been a Kings fan for a while, too, so I'm torn on who I'd like to see win this series. In the end, I'll have to actually watch some games to see who I find myself cheering for, but as far as predictions, I think the Kings will be too much for the 'Yotes to handle. They can counter every strength of Phoenix, and then they've got dynamic young playmakers that Phoenix just doesn't have an answer for.

Mostly I just hope whoever wins this series is able to bludgeon the Eastern Conference representative in the Stanley Cup Finals.

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

#6 New Jersey Devils over #1 New York Rangers, 6 games

I'll admit, I haven't seen a ton of Devils games during these playoffs. I caught a couple half-games from their first-round series against the Panthers, and I saw maybe 5 total periods between the Devils and Flyers. But from what I saw, the Devils seem like a pretty complete team. They've got the ability and the dedication to commit to shutting down an opposing team's top offensive players, particularly on the penalty kill. They've got a few high-caliber scorers in Patrick Elias, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Zach Parise. And they've got the winningest goalie in NHL history in Martin Brodeur.

The Rangers, meanwhile...well, it's tough to say exactly what they have. Brad Richards is a veteran who's playing like a kid; it seems like he's in on every scoring play, and he's both responsible and talented, a combination that made him the highest-paid free agent from hockey's last offseason. Marian Gaborik is an elite goal-scorer, but he goes through droughts as long as Alex Semin on the ice, or me at bars. The rest of their team is built to funnel easy shots to all-world goalie Henrik Lundqvist and grind the opposition on both ends of the ice.

The Rangers were able to disrupt Washington last round, but Washington was a team with a strong-minded midseason replacement coach, coming into a team that was built for a completely different style of hockey. New Jersey is all pulling in the same direction, and when that kind of talent and experience gets all their momentum together, they're tough to stop.

I won't dismiss the idea that after watching 9 hours of Rangers hockey over the past two weeks, I may have simply been exposed to a more complete picture of the team than I have of the Devils, but after watching New York, I'm just not convinced they're very good. And although I'm not at all a fan of New Jersey, between these two teams, you'd better believe I'm rooting against the Rangers.


Maybe I'll write a season debriefing for the Capitals sometime in the next couple weeks...if I can find a way to clean up all these tears.

2012 NHL Second Round Playoff Preview

Since I'm a fan of accountability, let's look back at how I did with my first round predictions. My "off by _ games" math accounts for both missed wins and missed losses. For example, I predicted the Penguins to win 4-3, but they lost 4-2. So I got one Penguins win wrong (3 vs 4) and two Flyers wins wrong (4 vs 2), making me off by 3 games total.

My predictions
Rangers over Senators (correct, off by 2 games)
Capitals over Bruins (correct)
Devils over Panthers (correct, off by 1 game)
Penguins over Flyers (incorrect, off by 3 games)

Canucks over Kings (incorrect, off by 3 games)
Blues over Sharks (correct, off by 2 games)
Blackhawks over Coyotes (incorrect, off by 4 games)
Predators over Red Wings (correct, off by 1 game)

Generally not too bad, I vastly under-estimated the Coyotes, and the Flyers/Penguins series was a bloodbath on all counts.  The nice thing is, I really don't like the Canucks or Blackhawks, so even where I was wrong, I was able to take some pleasure out of the result.

Now, on to round two.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#7 Washington Capitals over #1 New York Rangers, 6 games

(separate preview forthcoming)

#5 Philadelphia Flyers over #6 New Jersey Devils, 6 games

Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise are two of the more underrated scorers in hockey, and certainly Martin Brodeur has the potential to shut down anybody on any given night. But the Flyers have better scoring depth than the Devils, and while the Devils seemed to act like a physical team against Florida, they're going to run into a real deal physical squad in Philadelphia.

If this series were starting immediately after the Pens/Flyers series concluded, I'd have it as a toss-up.  But I think the time off has given Philadelphia a chance to gather themselves, both physically and mentally, and I have a hard time not seeing them overwhelm New Jersey with three strong scoring lines.  We'll be seeing Scott Hartnell's golden locks in the conference finals.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#8 Los Angeles Kings over #2 St. Louis Blues, 7 games

This is a matchup between two of my favorite Western Conference teams, and yet two very different teams.  The Blues are a gritty, defense-first team that had low expectations coming into this year and could, in fact, already view the season as a success.  The Kings, meanwhile, made a huge splash in the offseason by trading for Mike Richards, then followed that with a similarly impressive splash mid-season, trading for Richards' former Flyer teammate Jeff Carter.  They've got a dynamic set of scorers who'll give St. Louis' stout defense all it can handle.

It's going to be an epic struggle of offense versus defense, but I think the X-factor is Vezina finalist Jonathan Quick.  The Blues have a nice tandem of Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott, but neither of them is on the same level as Quick.  He'll end up stealing a game that the Blues should win, and that'll be the difference in the series.

And I have no idea who I'm rooting for.

#4 Nashville Predators over #3 Phoenix Coyotes, 6 games

What kind of sucks is that I decided sometime last week that I like the Coyotes enough to root for them against most teams.  I've been a big Shane Doan fan ever since my Xbox 360 NHL '09 Dallas Stars team traded for him in our playoff surge.  And the fact that the Lightning cast aside Mike Smith only to see him flourish elsewhere makes me smile (after last year's sweep at the hands of Tampa Bay, I severely dislike the Lightning).

But the reality is that Nashville is an extremely strong team.  They had the fifth-most points in all of hockey in 2011-2012, and they boast absolutely, unequivocally the best defensive pairing in the sport with Shea Weber and Ryan Suter.  Both teams are responsible defensively, and have strong goaltenders.  This is going to be an Big Ten kind of matchup, with plenty of low-scoring, tight games, and multiple overtime games.  It's really either team's series to lose, and it's going to come down to a couple of small mistakes deciding this series.  Which is what playoff hockey should be all about, right?  There's nothing like the utter disappointment of losing to a team you know you're just as good as, simply because of a bad bounce or some chipped ice or a flash bulb.

God, the playoffs are nerve-wracking.

2012 NHL Playoff Preview

Not much time before the games start, so here's a quick-hitter version of my playoff predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 New York Rangers over #8 Ottawa Senators, 5 games

Ottawa's got a potent offense, but the Rangers are built to stuff. When they added Brad Richards in the offseason, they became a much more dynamic team, and Henrik Lundqvist is a superstar. It was a nice run for the Sens, but this is where it ends.

#7 Washington Capitals over #2 Boston Bruins, 7 games

Call it a homer pick if you want, but it feels like the Caps are headed in the right direction, finally. The Bruins were up and down enough, and Tim Thomas isn't what he was last year. Braden Holtby being thrust into the starting goaltender role for Washington could be one of the best stories of the playoffs...assuming he doesn't fall flat.

#6 New Jersey Devils over #3 Florida Panthers, 6 games

Is it possible that the Panthers at #3 actually have a harder opening round matchup than the #7 Capitals? The Devils' offense is explosive, and they have, you know, a pretty solid goalie. One thing Florida has working in their favor is their depth of scoring. They had eleven different players with 20 or more points this season, so you can't gameplan against a particular line. Don't really need to, though.

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins over #5 Philadelphia Flyers, 7 games

Based purely on talent and coaching, I'd expect Pittsburgh to win in five or six, but the simple distaste these teams have for each other makes it hard for me to imagine them not playing as many games as possible. Sidney Crosby is back, and he joins Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal to make the strongest top three centers in the world. Side note: it should be fun as hell to see Jagr come back to Pittsburgh in a playoff setting.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 Vancouver Canucks over #8 Los Angeles Kings, 7 games

The Kings picked up Mike Richards last offseason, and Jeff Carter during the season. Add them to Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown and you've got a pretty solid set of lines. The real matchup here is from crease to crease, Jonathan Quick versus Roberto Luongo, two of the best goalies in hockey. I think in the end, Luongo's got a little more playoff experience and he'll help his team pull out the series, but this will be a nail-biter.

#2 St. Louis Blues over #7 San Jose Sharks, 7 games

The Blues have been playing playoff-style hockey all season, bruising opponents and getting incredible goalie play from Brian Elliott. But the Sharks have a ton of playoff experience (albeit mostly disappointing experience), and they'll give St. Louis all they can handle. I don't know how much the two will match up, but every moment when David Backes is skating against Joe Thornton is precisely what playoff hockey is all about.

#6 Chicago Blackhawks over #3 Phoenix Coyotes, 6 games

I wish I could predict the Coyotes to win their first playoff series since they became the Coyotes, but I just can't. Mike Smith has been incredible for Phoenix, and I'm expecting him to steal two games. In the end, though, unless Jonathan Toews doesn't play at all, the Blackhawks are just too strong top to bottom.

#4 Nashville Predators over #5 Detroit Red Wings, 6 games

The Red Wings were great at home, but decidedly unimpressive on the road, and as most of you know, teams play both at home and on the road during the playoffs. Pavel Datsyuk is one of my favorite players, but with Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, the Preds can counter pretty much any team's best line. The Wings' forward depth doesn't wow me like it used to, so I'm taking Nashville.

NHL 2011-2012 Preview

I won't lie to you; I'm a new hockey fan. In my life, I've probably watched 250 hockey games, and 200 of them were in the past three years. The vast extent of my knowledge comes from watching Capitals games and playing hockey video games...including NHL Breakaway '98. Granted, there are only like three players still in the NHL from that game, but between Jagr, Pronger, and Brodeur, I get that little historical edge that some of my colleagues lack...

...okay, they have the same edge, it's just fun to remember Breakaway.

Anyways, despite my limited experience as a hockey fan, I'm excited to offer you my preview of this year's NHL season. I'll give you a quick blurb on each team and let you know who I expect to make the playoffs, who I expect to advance in the playoffs, and what players I expect to win a couple of the higher-profile trophies this season.

* indicates predicted playoff team

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division

1. * Nashville Predators - Pekka Rinne is an elite goaltender who gets put into good situations by a great defensive team, led by Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, indisputably the best pairing in hockey (with apologies to Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook). There are again questions as to where the goals will come from, but the questions were there last year, and they found a way to win.
2. * Chicago Blackhawks - The aforementioned Keith and Seabrook are a dynamic duo, but the real bright spot for Chicago is their offensive prowess. Between Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, and Marian Hossa, they've got four of the most gifted scorers around. Points, both on the scoreboard and in the standings, should be plentiful.
3. * Detroit Red Wings - Skilled veteran leadership is abundant for the Red Wings, and I believe Pavel Datsyuk is one of the five most talented players in the game. But a tough division and my complete disdain for Jimmy Howard force me to put them third in the division, and 5th or 6th in the conference.
4. * St. Louis Blues - David Backes is one of my favorite players, and I acknowledge that as a factor in my picking the Blues to slide into the playoffs. But they're a talented young team that could get even more talented if David Perron is able to return from a concussion suffered last season. Of course, they'll have to overcome the Jamie Langenbrunner curse that killed the Devils early and ended the Stars' season...
5. Columbus Blue Jackets - Columbus actually had a good offseason, picking up Jeff Carter to center the top line. But they play in an impossibly tough division, and Steve Mason doesn't seem to be the goalie we thought he was two years ago. Here's hoping they can retool and improve, though, so my brother can enjoy playing with them in NHL '13.

Northwest Division

1. * Vancouver Canucks - I really don't like them, but they play in a weak division and they're damn talented. Ryan Kesler is going to miss early time, but the creepy Sedin twins should be able to generate enough offense to overcome his absence, and the whole back end (goalies and defensemen) for the Canucks is full of plus players.
2. Edmonton Oilers - Taylor Hall is just one of a plethora of talented but unproven players on the Oilers, including this year's #1 overall pick, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who made the opening roster due to injuries. It's too much to expect them to be a playoff team this season, but they're headed in the right direction...finally.
3. Calgary Flames - The Flames continue to basically be a two-man show, with Jarome Iginla and Mikka Kiprusoff highlighting an otherwise pedestrian squad. Former Capital Scott Hannan signed late in free agency, and you have to wonder how much his value took a hit because of his mistake in the playoffs last year that gave a breakaway goal to Tampa Bay in overtime.
4. Colorado Avalanche - I do believe the Avalanche vastly overpaid for Semyon Varlamov, but there's no denying the guy's talent. And future draft picks are unknown quantities. Varly has a chance to dominate on any given night, regardless of the opponent. And it goes unnoticed sometimes, but Matt Duchene and Paul Stastny actually make the Avs pretty strong down the middle.
5. Minnesota Wild - I wish I could say that the Wild will get back into the playoffs this year, but I just don't see it. They made a couple big trades with the Sharks, getting Devin Setoguchi and Dany Heatley, but they had to give up Martin Havlat and Brent Burns, which to me is mostly a push. The other Niklas Backstrom can be a very good goaltender, but he needs help that he's not going to get.

Pacific Division

1. * San Jose Sharks - I do get a kind of gratification from making "gutsy" calls, but there's simply no picking against the Sharks this year. They were dynamite last year, and they rearranged their team to be a little stronger defensively by adding Brent Burns from Minnesota. The potency is there for San Jose to win it all this year.
2. * Los Angeles Kings - Conventional thinking is that, to be successful come playoff time, your team has to be strong down the middle. That means centers, defensemen, goalie. By adding Mike Richards in the offseason, the Kings have two elite centers (Richards and Anze Kopitar), a great defenseman in Drew Doughty (and a should-be-better guy in Jack Johnson), and one of my favorite goalies in the league, Jonathan Quick. They're geared up for a run.
   
3. * Anaheim Ducks - I really wish they were still called the Mighty Ducks, but I guess that ship has sailed. The Ducks have probably the best single line in hockey, with Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Bobby Ryan. Jonas Hiller has good skill, but he gets a ton of shots sent his way because the Ducks can't/won't play defense. They're a fun team to watch, but I don't expect more than another first round exit from them.
4. Dallas Stars - The loss of Brad Richards is a big one, but the front line of Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow, and Loui Eriksson is more potent than it gets credit for. If Sheldon Souray can recapture some of his old magic, and if Kari Lehtonen can be solid in net, Dallas could give Anaheim a run for 3rd in the division and the last playoff spot.
5. Phoenix Coyotes - I'm not of the belief that Ilya Bryzgalov was some elite goaltender who didn't get enough opportunities to succeed by playing in Phoenix. I think he's a nice goalie who had Keith Yandle and a gritty group of forwards in front of him. That being said, I don't feel good at all about Mike Smith or Jason LaBarbera. Yandle, Shane Doan, Daymond Langkow and company are good, but not good enough for anything other than 5th place.
   

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

1. * Pittsburgh Penguins - From a personal standpoint, I really don't like the Penguins. But from an objective, "how well is this team going to do this season," you really can't like them enough...assuming they're healthy. Sidney Crosby is obviously one of the most electric players in the game, and as soon as he's back on the ice, Pittsburgh will have three top flight centers. They showed they can win without Crosby last year; with him, they're a powerhouse.
2. * New York Rangers - The story for the Rangers always starts with Henrik Lundqvist, perhaps the best goalie in the world. New York has built their team around supporting him, surrounding him with shot-blocking defensemen and gritty forwards. Adding Brad Richards to partner with Marian Gaborik should make their top line a lot more productive, and while they still won't blow anybody out of the building, they shouldn't need to.
3. * Philadelphia Flyers - I think the Flyers overall did a pretty poor job in the offseason, but that's from a completely chemistry-immune standpoint. We all heard that Richards and Carter were locker room problems, so I can't argue their departures completely, but there's no question that the talent level in Philly is lower than it was a year ago. Their only hope can be that Bryzgalov solves their goaltending question.
4. New Jersey Devils - I really wanted to predict the Devils to leapfrog the Flyers and get into the playoffs. I truly believe last year was an aberration, and that they'll be a better and more explosive team than in 2010-2011. But they traded Dave Steckel to the Maple Leafs just before the beginning of the season. Mark my words: they'll rue the day.
5. New York Islanders - The Isles should actually be improved this year, with more developing talent on board, and John Taveres seemingly coming into his own. But they're still soft at goalie with Rick "Glass Jaw" DiPietro and the unproven Al Montoya splitting time. Growing pains are likely, but a fast maturation is possible.
   

Northeast Division

1. * Buffalo Sabres - So, initially I had the Sabres out of the playoffs altogether in my preview. But I knew they were in it last year, so I figured I'd better give due diligence. Good thing. While I think Ville Leino was overpaid, Thomas Vanek and a healthy Derek Roy give the Sabres a stronger front line than they had last season. To say nothing of the fact that Christian Erhoff should dramatically improve their blue line offense. And we all know who Buffalo's goalie is.
2. * Boston Bruins - Last year's Stanley Cup champions figure to be back in the playoffs, despite the long season they played. Tim Thomas and Tukka Rask are a great 1-2 punch that give the Bruins every chance to win, every night. Zdeno Chara leads a very strong defensive corps, and though the forwards aren't superstars, they showed last year that they can plant the puck when they need to.
3. Toronto Maple Leafs - The aforementioned acquisition of Steckel probably doesn't merit this, but that was my deciding factor between Toronto and Montreal at #3 in the Northeast. Phil Kessel is a great scorer, and Dion Phaneuf is a dynamic defenseman. If youngster James Reimer can take the next step in his development in goal, the Maple Leafs could surprise some people.
4. Montreal Canadiens - I hate the Canadiens, for obvious reasons. But unlike the Penguins, I can feel comfortable projecting a mediocre finish for Montreal. I've never thought much of Carey Price, and I actually think P.K. Subban is overrated. They've got solid veterans all over the lineup, highlighted by Mike Cammalleri, Tomas Plekanec, and Brian Gionta, but I just don't see a scary team when I look at their depth chart.
5. Ottawa Senators - Speaking of unimpressive depth charts...jeez. Granted, if Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson can turn back the clock a couple years, they'd have a couple of legit 80-point threats. But clocks don't normally work that way. Erik Karlsson is a nice young defenseman, but the depth is suspect, and having Craig Anderson as the starter in net has to terrify Ottawa fans.
   

Southeast Division

1. * Washington Capitals - The Caps have won the Southeast four straight seasons, and there's no reason to think they won't do it again. An active offseason has them reshuffling their lineup, but there's still a lot of skill across the board. Most of all, they boast perhaps the best top 6 D-men in hockey, with Mike Green, Roman Hamrlik, John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Dennis Wideman, and Jeff Schultz. I'll tell you this, though: if the Caps don't at least get to the Conference Finals this year, there's just no way Bruce Boudrou survives next offseason.
2. * Tampa Bay Lightning - Tampa was one of the big stories during last year's playoffs, winning three straight to oust the Penguins, then sweeping the top-seeded Caps in the conference semifinals. Most of the team returns, and their offense has still got a trio of superstars in Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos, and Vincent Lecavalier. I don't see them getting the same insane performance out of Dwayne Roloson this season, though, so I see them as more of a 6 or 7 seed.
3. * Winnipeg Jets - Why not, right? Last year's Thrashers might not have scared anybody, but you know the Jets will draw a crowd every night, and there's more skill on this team than you might expect. Andrew Ladd and Evander Kane are very solid and very young, and Dustin Byfuglien might be the most exciting player in the division, because anything can happen when he's on the ice. Ondrej Pavelec showed flashes of dominance at times last year, so why not a storybook run to the playoffs (before being crushed by the Penguins)?
4. Carolina Hurricanes - They still have a fabulous center in Eric Staal, a workhorse goalie in Cam Ward, and a budding star in Jeff Skinner. But while Tomas Kaberle was a nice acquisition, their lineup still feels thin. And I mean, come on. There's a limit to how many Ruutu's I can project into the playoffs...it's zero.
5. Florida Panthers - The Panthers have already outperformed my expectations, as I didn't think they'd win a game. Truthfully, though, it's a ragtag bunch that could have some really good nights. Jose Theodore has been unimpressive in the past few years, but he's still got some fight left in him. Stephen Weiss, Tomas Kopecky, Kris Versteeg, Scottie Upshall, and former Capital Tomas Fleischmann all have decent scoring touch, and Ed Jovanovski and Brian Campbell, while overpaid, both have some upside. Still...I don't see a ton of wins going their way down south.
   

Eastern Conference Finals
Pittsburgh Penguins over Washington Capitals

Western Conference Finals
San Jose Sharks over Chicago Blackhawks

Stanley Cup Finals
San Jose Sharks over Pittsburgh Penguins

Hart Trophy
Winner - Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim Ducks
Finalist - Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Finalist - Zach Parise, New Jersey Devils

Vezina Trophy
Winner - Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers
Finalist - Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles Kings
Finalist - Antti Niemi, San Jose Sharks

Norris Trophy
Winner - Shea Weber, Nashville Predators
Finalist - Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks
Finalist - Dustin Byfuglien, Winnipeg Jets

2011 NBA Draft Predictions

Other people like ESPN's Chad Ford rely on insider information to determine which prospect will be drafted by each of the various NBA teams on Thursday night's NBA draft. I use what limited information I have about each player's pro potential, and what I perceive to be each team's needs. Remember 2009, when I inexplicably put DeJuan Blair ahead of Austin Daye? Well, Blair is a solid contributor on a good team, and Daye is a do-nothing forward on a crummy team. So maybe I'm not always wrong.

Anyways, here we go. A wide open draft lottery gets predicted by an amateur...right now:

1. The Cleveland Cavaliers select Kyrie Irving, guard from Duke University. The Cavs are feinting that they're still considering Derrick Williams at the #1 pick, but I don't buy it unless they work out a deal with the #4 pick. Irving and Williams are neck-and-neck in this draft, but Irving would be harder to replace with the talent I expect to be available at #4.
2. The Minnesota Timberwolves select Derrick Williams, forward from the University of Arizona. Even the Timberwolves can't mess this one up, right? Whoever doesn't go #1 is a no-brainer at the second pick, and while Minnesota has made some no-brain picks in the past (drafting Ricky Rubio, then drafting Jonny Flynn, then drafting and trading Ty Lawson), Williams is a lock for #2. It's possible they trade the pick, but Williams will go second, for sure.
3. The Utah Jazz select Brandon Knight, guard from the University of Kentucky. When you're consistently a good team, you don't have many opportunities at high draft picks. But they've made the most of their limited opportunities, grabbing superstar Deron Williams with their only top 5 pick since 1982. They're back at the top of the draft with a pick they acquired for Williams, and I think they'll use it on the most similar player to Williams in this draft. Knight is smart, agile, and motivated, and he's a great finisher at the rim. He might not be the next Deron Williams, but he also might be.
4. The Cleveland Cavaliers select Jonas Valanciunas, center from Lithuania. I went back and forth on this pick, and this is where the draft really shakes loose, so each of these picks has a huge impact on the next few. Valanciunas is apparently locked in for another year with his Lithuanian team, which people say is scaring teams off. Hogwash, I say. The Cavs are among several teams that love love love the big man, and I think, with two top picks in the draft, they know they've got a couple years before they can expect to compete. So pick the guy you want, and be patient. And send a coach over there to keep him on the right path, basketball and otherwise.
5. The Toronto Raptors select Enes Kanter, center from Turkey. I'd like to find a way to have Kanter drop to the Wizards at #6, but realistically he'll go at four or five, and I'll sigh. Anyways, Kanter is a banger with good hands, the kind of guy who can really improve his teammates. His presence, along with the hopeful development of Ed Davis, could allow Andrea Bargnani more freedom to possibly grow into a legitimate star. Good fit.
6. The Washington Wizards select Kawhi Leonard, forward from San Diego State University. As I said, I think the Wizards would love to have Kanter as a Robin to John Wall's Batman, and they should explore trading up to get him (especially if they can unload that nightmare Andray Blatche). But if things go as I project, I think Leonard is a nice piece. He's unrefined, and he's still growing into his body, but his intensity is the real deal, and it shows in his defense and rebounding. It does mean the team is still on the lookout for a Robin, though.
7. The Sacramento Kings select Jan Vesely, forward from the Czech Republic. The Kings have a sort of patchwork team right now, one without much of an identity. They've got some interesting pieces, particularly Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins. Vesely should slide in easily, even though he's still unrefined. He can play either forward slot, and has a lot he can do from mid-range offensively. The Heat's big three they ain't, but Evans, Cousins, and Vesely could definitely guide the Kings back into the playoff hunt.
8. The Detroit Pistons select Bismack Biyombo, forward from the Congo. Detroit allowed the highest field goal percentage in basketball last year, which is simply unacceptable from the way this franchise has won titles in the past. Biyombo is one of the mysteries of this year's draft, but the physical tools are there to be a defensive force immediately, and a defensive superstar soon enough. There's risk, sure, but there's reward as well.
9. The Charlotte Bobcats select Kemba Walker, guard from the University of Connecticut. Charlotte is paltry up front, but two things prompt them taking Walker in my estimation. First, he's the best player on the board by a good margin. Second, the word is that Charlotte would like to get someone who can contribute right away, which jives with my assessment of Michael Jordan's preferences. Which are wholly speculative, of course, but as good a guess as anybody's.
   
10. The Milwaukee Bucks select Alec Burks, guard from the University of Colorado. Apparently the Bucks cooled on Brandon Jennings pretty quickly, as he's now been the subject of trade rumors. I think Burks is a good fit for the team either way. He's a slasher guard who can make his own shot. There are concerns about his ability to hit jumpers, but some good old-fashioned practice should take care of that.
    
11. The Golden State Warriors select Klay Thompson, guard from Washington State University. Golden State's top two scorers from last season were Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis, their starting backcourt. So why would they draft another two guard? Well first, Thompson would be a nice complement to either Curry or Ellis, making both expendable if needed. The Warriors could really use a center, but they're better off trying to get one via trade at this draft position.
12. The Utah Jazz select Jimmer Fredette, guard from Brigham Young University. Honestly, when I started putting this together, I thought the Knight pick at #3 would preclude Fredette going to Utah here. But the reality is that Utah's most glaring need is scoring punch, and if Fredette has shown one thing, it's a knack for putting the ball in the bucket. Utah's best move might be to simply go with a small lineup and try to play Suns-style basketball, running and gunning. Could be fun to watch.
    
13. The Phoenix Suns select Tristan Thompson, forward from the University of Texas. Kind of a coup for the Suns to land Thompson, who's more like a top 10 talent in this year's draft. He's a do-everything forward, but in a good Jeff Green way, not a bad Joe Alexander way. He might not project to be a superstar, but I'd be pretty shocked if he wasn't still an effective NBA player in ten years. His character and ability should make him a lifer.
14. The Houston Rockets select Nikola Vucevic, center from the University of Southern California. The Rockets are a mess. They have needs basically across the board, and since there's no lightning in a bottle at this point in the draft, I think they'll go with the most projectable guy out there. Vucevic played three years of college ball, improving each year, and becoming a very good scorer and rebounder by his junior season. He's not Dirk, but he's got a good shooting touch and can help any team. It's a start.

The Wizards pick again at 18, which will probably be the last pick I watch live. The draft is basically a crapshoot after #9 (and Valanciunas could fall back into that area as well), but one guy I'd like to see Washington take with their second pick would be Jeremy Tyler. He's got size, athleticism, and skill, but is utterly lacking in maturity. My dream scenario would have the Wizards acquiring Shane Battier, and letting Battier groom Tyler. But that's probably just that: a dream.

Good luck to all the teams in the lottery, and here's hoping that the Wizards are a winner on draft night. And also that there are lots of trades. Big ones.

2011 NBA Draft Preview

I've always held a place in my heart for the NBA draft. Part of it is the hope that comes with adding the very best newly eligible players. Part of it is the fact that NBA draftees are often the most impactful of any of the sports. And part of it, I'm sure, is the fact that the Bullets/Wizards have had lottery picks more often than not over the past twenty years. They're really quite bad.

This year, however, I'm even more interested than usual. Here are a couple thoughts as to why:

• The Cavaliers' rebuilding. One year removed from losing Lebron James to free agency, the Cavs ended up with the #1 and #4 picks in this year's draft. They have a chance to acquire two potential all-stars in a single night, and that's exciting no matter what team it is.
• The Wizards have the #6 pick. It's early enough that you've got a shot at this draft's top tier talent, but not so early that you're out of the mix right away. Having to watch those first five picks go will be good drama for all thirty-six Wizards fans who watch the draft.
• College players at the top. While Enes Kanter and Jan Vesely will go early, the projected top three picks are all players out of college. I may not have watched much college hoops last year, but these are at least a few names I recognize.
• Trade buzz! There are always plenty of rumors leading up to the NBA draft, but it seems like the buzz is deafening this year. With so many of the early picks seemingly up for trade (the Timberwolves at 2, the Jazz at 3, the Cavaliers at 4, and the Wizards at 6), we're all hopeful for a flurry of activity on draft night. Usually that hope gets dashed by about pick 16, but hey, dare to dream, right?
• It's not the NFL draft. The NFL draft this year was just terrible. I'm interested to see if the NBA draft, which I've loved since I was in middle school, is its own machine, or if they suffer from the same shortcomings.

Look for my lottery mockery later today or tomorrow.

2011 - Who should the Panthers take with the #1 overall pick?

I asked friends of Joe and Joe Sports to say what they'd do with the #1 overall pick if they were the Carolina Panthers (as I did last year with the Rams' pick). The responses weren't quite as analytical as last year's, but to be fair, I gave our friends just a couple hours to respond.

Here you go:

"I just don't see their GM being willing to abandon hope on Jimmy Clausen, who had legitimate first fifteen pick potential last year. I think the right pick is either A.J. Green or Von Miller. I'll say Green, as he'd give Clausen a top flight weapon with whom to develop, or if Clausen doesn't end up working out, an enticing potential teammate for free agent quarterbacks in two years. And because linebackers just never go #1."
- Rockville, MD

"Doesn't matter who they take, it's not going to help. But probably Cam Newton."
- Bethesda, MD

"Going out on a limb (or maybe not, I haven't followed the draft too closely this year), I'm saying they will trade out of the top spot. Cam Newton seems to be the consensus top pick, but do they really need a guy who looks to be a "project" when they have Clausen in the fold? My gut tells me no. I think they trade down and pick up a few extra draft picks in order to fill multiple holes."
- Altoona, PA

"We always say 'don't take that project QB,' but those are usually the only QBs out there. Take Newton, and trust your coaches to be able to harness his skills and turn him into the quarterback you need."
- Waynesville, MO

"I think Carolina should select A. J. Green. I think they can select a QB in free agency or make a trade after the draft to get by for a year or two. Matt Hasselbeck, Kevin Kolb. None of the QBs in this years draft exhibit the qualities of a franchise QB. I think Green is a safe pick and can help the running game, Steve Smith and Clausen if you choose to go with him."
- Frederick, MD

"Cam Newton!!!!!!11"
- Reston, VA

NHL Second Round Predictions

As a review, here are my predictions from the first round. The results are in parentheses, bolded if I got the winner correct.

Western Conference
Vancouver over Chicago in 6 games (Vancouver in 7 games)
San Jose over Los Angeles in 7 games (San Jose in 6 games)
Phoenix over Detroit in 7 games (Detroit in 4 games)
Nashville over Anaheim in 6 games (Nashville in 6 games)

Eastern Conference
Washington over New York Rangers in 5 games (Washington in 5 games)
Philadelphia over Buffalo in 5 games (Philadelphia in 7 games)
Boston over Montreal in 5 games (Boston in 7 games)
Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay in 7 games (Tampa Bay in 7 games)

So I got three out of four right on each side. Not bad, though that Detroit/Phoenix series was a slap in the balls.

Both conferences in one post from here on out.

Western Conference Semifinals

#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #5 Nashville Predators

Vancouver had a rough time closing out the Blackhawks in the first round. Chicago has been a thorn in the Canucks' side for years, and you knew they weren't going to go away easily, but they were a lucky bounce away from ousting the President's Trophy winners and making everyone forget about the Caps' collapse last season.

But Vancouver did pull out the victory, and they're still the most skilled offensive team in the country. The thing that concerns me about this series for Vancouver is the state of Roberto Luongo, both physically and mentally. He got benched for game 6 (then came in as an injury replacement), and barely won in game 7. He wasn't on top of his game at the end of the series, and he knew it. Does that carry over?

I think it does. My "gutsy" pick last round didn't pan out at all, with my underdog Coyotes not winning a single game, but I'm going back to the well again. I'm taking the brutal Predators, led by their outstanding goalie Pekka Rinne, to grind the Canucks to a halt and move on to the conference finals.

Prediction: Predators in 7

#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #3 Detroit Red Wings

Every time I start to write something on this matchup, I delete it. These two teams are just so dynamic that it's impossible to pick against either of them. The Sharks are peaking at the right time, and with Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau, Ryan Clowe, and phenom Logan Couture, their offense is as talented as anybody's. But Detroit's got a couple of legitimate megastars in Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk, and a lineup riddled with winners like Niklas Lidstrom, Kris Draper, and Mike Modano. So how do you pick between them?

Goalies. The Sharks have got a goalie who showed last year that he's got the skills and the head to win a Cup. The Red Wings have a young goalie who keeps pushing the envelope to show how amazingly inconsistent a goalie can be. In a matchup between two juggernauts, you take the one that has the goalie who can turn in consistent, effective performances.

Prediction: Sharks in 6

Eastern Conference Semifinals

#1 Washington Capitals vs. #5 Tampa Bay Lightning

If the Capitals go deep into this postseason, I have to think we'll look back at game four against the Rangers as a turning point. Down three goals coming into the third period and hearing it from the rowdy Madison Square Garden crowd, the Capitals hunkered down, played aggressive and responsible hockey, equalized the game in regulation, then won on a decidedly non-Capitals-style goal by Jason Chimera in double-overtime.

That goal, and in fact that whole game, is a sign that this isn't last year's Capitals team. The mid-season course correction that Bruce Boudreau undertook to rededicate the team to defense and puck control has been completely embraced, and you can't understate the importance of Jason Arnott's addition to this team. While I was sad to see David Steckel go in the trade, the Caps needed a playmaking second-line center, and Arnott has been all that and more. His presence has been tremendous in helping the Capitals find goals that they couldn't before.

Tampa Bay had to come back from three games to one to beat Pittsburgh in the first round, and it was impressive that they were able to turn things around. They also flashed some of their vaunted offense, outscoring the Penguins 13-4 in those last three games. But you can't forget that they got down 3-1 in the first place. Against this Capitals team, the Lightning don't overcome that deficit. Let's hope the Verizon Center remains friendly for Washington this weekend.

Prediction: Washington in 5

#2 Philadelphia Flyers vs. #3 Boston Bruins

We were a game away from booting both of these teams in the first round, but the Sabres and Canadiens (respectively) couldn't close the deal. Now we've got a matchup between two very talented and downright ornery teams that should end up being very entertaining.

Boston holds the advantage at goalie, as Tim Thomas actually deserves a little bit of consideration for the MVP. While he didn't play every game (and in fact came into the season as the #2 goalie behind Tuukka Rask), he turned in one of the best statistical seasons a goalie has ever had. Ever. A 2.00 goals-against-average is simply unheard of. The Flyers, meanwhile, started three different goalies during their series against Buffalo, and while it seems clear that Brian Boucher should start, none of them is a game-changer.

But that's okay, they don't need to be. Philadelphia's strength is the depth of their skaters, both at forward and defense, and their rough and tumble attitude. They had ten different guys register at least 9 hits during the series, and their top two scorers (Claude Giroux and Danny Briere) were both also in the top three of hits on the team. That tells me that the whole team has a commitment to being physical, not just the fourth-liners. In the end, I think that physical nature and the offensive skill players for the Flyers will help them outlast the Bruins in what figures to be a nasty affair.

Prediction: Flyers in 7

LET'S GO CAPS!

NHL First Round Predictions - Eastern Conference

Here are the predictions you really care about, beginning with the most important one of all.

#1 Washington Capitals vs. #8 New York Rangers

The Caps are a tough team to figure out right now. They've been playing a lot better since the trading deadline, when they acquired Jason Arnott, Marco Sturm, and Dennis Wideman. Arnott and Wideman in particular have been tremendous. Problem is, Wideman is out for the first round of the playoffs, and he's not the only Caps player who's under the weather. Mike Green hasn't played since taking a blow to the head against these very Rangers on February 25th (a day which will live in infamy), Tom Poti has been out even longer, and almost every important Washington player has missed at least a game or two over the past few weeks. Hopefully that was just a matter of giving guys rest, but it gives me pause.

The Rangers are without their third-highest scorer Ryan Callahan, and this is a team that could ill-afford to lose any kind of offense. They're young, and they get contributions from a lot of different guys, but they mostly rely on defense, goaltending, and opportunity to win hockey games. Henrik Lundqvist is one of the best goalies in the East, but he went just 36-32 this season. Could he steal a game? Sure. But not more than one.

Prediction: Capitals in 5

#2 Philadelphia Flyers vs. #7 Buffalo Sabres

The sexy pick these days is to count out the Flyers after they stumbled into the playoffs. Did they lose the #1 overall seed? Yes. Did they almost yield the division to the streaking Penguins? Yes. Are they suddenly a crummy team? No.

Buffalo has a few nice pieces, including their all-world goalie Ryan Miller. But Miller hasn't been nearly as dominant this season as he was last year. And while neither of Philly's goalies (Sergei Bobrovsky and Brian Boucher) have been tremendous, they both benefit from an extremely physical team in front of them, and a team that loves blocking shots. I just don't see how Buffalo can overcome Philadelphia's depth and physicality.

Prediction: Flyers in 5

#3 Boston Bruins vs. #6 Montreal Canadiens

Carey Price has carried Montreal this season, but this is the same Carey Price who got ousted for Jaroslav Halak in last year's playoffs. He also appeared in 20 more games than he's ever played in before, second only to Cam Ward in games played and goalie minutes. All together, I feel like Price is setting up for a disappointment.

Meanwhile, the Bruins have arguably the NHL's best goalie in Tim Thomas, who led all of hockey in save percentage and goals against average. He was also afforded a good deal of rest by backup Tuukka Rask, and should be 100% ready to go come playoff time. Furthermore, with Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg, the Bruins might have the strongest defensive pairing in the Eastern Conference.

I could see half of the games going to overtime, but I'm confident the Bruins will take the series.

Prediction: Bruins in 5

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Tampa Bay Lightning

The Penguins definitely miss superstar Sidney Crosby, but they've acquitted themselves nicely of late, winning eight of their last ten regular season games. Of course, their two losses came against the last two playoff teams they faced, including a matchup against the Lightning on March 31st. The reality is that Pittsburgh is a nearly impossible team to figure out right now. Their two noteworthy deadline acquisitions, James Neal and Alex Kovalev, have been either inconsistent or downright disappointing. We know Kovalev can step his game up, but if Neal doesn't, who else scores on this team?

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is one of the easier teams to assess. They're gonna score, probably a lot, and they're going to give you your chances to score, too. Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis both registered more than 90 points on the year, but finished just a combined +3. They did, however, finish in the top 10 in both the power play and penalty kill, and led the NHL in shorthanded goals.

Marc-Andre Fleury is a damn fine goalie, and he's got a chance to win this series for the Penguins. They'll need exceptional play from unexceptional players. Dan Bylsma is a good coach, and he just might get his guys to rally. And there's always the chance that Crosby actually does play. If he does, make it five games instead of seven.

Prediction: Penguins in 7

NHL First Round Predictions - Western Conference

Nothing fancy, just predicting the first round matchups in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Here we go.

#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Chicago Blackhawks

What a treat for the President's Cup winners: you get to face the defending Stanley Cup champions in the first round! Honestly, though, the Blackhawks aren't nearly the team they were last year. They needed help from the Minnesota Wild on the last day of the season to even make the playoffs at all, edging out the Dallas Stars for the 8th seed. Vancouver, meanwhile, has had the Western Conference wrapped up for weeks.

So what's going to happen? Well, I normally like to see upsets, but I don't like the Blackhawks, and Vancouver boasts last year's MVP and this year's front-runner in Henrik and Daniel Sedin, respectively. Partner that with a solid goalie in Roberto Luongo and plenty of playoff experience, and I don't see the Blackhawks finding a way to win four games.

Prediction: Canucks in 6

#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #7 Los Angeles Kings

It's worth noting that just seven points separated these two teams at the end of the year. Not exactly a huge difference for such a spread on the seedings. That should tell you how strong a lot of the Western Conference is this season.

It took a little while, but the Sharks did finally start to show some of their old swagger. They finished with seven different twenty goal scorers, and discovered that Antti Niemi is a top end goalie, overtaking Antero Nittymaki as the #1 man between the pipes. Now, no team is as talented in the back end as the Kings, with Jonathan Quick, who's maybe the best goalie in hockey, and a whole rack of special defensemen, including Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson.

But Anze Kopitar is going to miss the whole playoffs due to a broken ankle, and without him in the lineup, they haven't got the firepower to compete with San Jose. Quick can probably steal a game on his own, and the overall defense will keep them competitive, maybe even push it to the brink. But in the end, the Sharks are going to move on.

Prediction: Sharks in 7

#3 Detroit Red Wings vs. #6 Phoenix Coyotes

This is one of the toughest first round matchups to predict. It's a rematch of last year's 4/5 series which the Coyotes pushed to seven games (before getting blasted 6-1 on home ice). This year, defenseman Keith Yandle has stepped up his offense, and in fact the whole team is extremely balanced. They don't really have a superstar (Shane Doan is as close as it gets), but that means they're unpredictable on offense.

Detroit, meanwhile, will be without Henrik Zetterberg for at least Game 1, and while there's still plenty of talent on the team, if Phoenix can steal a game in Detroit while Zetterberg is out of the lineup, the series is wide open. Jimmy Howard wasn't exactly stalwart in goal for the Wings, and it wasn't but a year ago that the Coyotes' Ilya Bryzgalov was arguably the best goalie in the West. Everybody likes to make a gutsy pick, so here's mine.

Prediction: Coyotes in 7

#4 Anaheim Ducks vs. #5 Nashville Predators

Nashville is one of those teams that nobody really wants to play. It's not because you don't think you can beat them; you just know that you're going to pay the price for every inch of real estate. Shea Weber is one of the biggest sons of bitches in the league, delivering tons of hits and blocking shot after shot. The rest of his defensive linemates fall in line with the same mentality, giving up their bodies and making sure their opponents take just as much damage. That's a big reason why goalie Pekka Rinne was third in GAA this year.

The Ducks, meanwhile, are an offensive juggernaut. Corey Perry led the whole NHL with 50 goals, and the team boasts three other 70 point players (Teemu Selanne, Ryan Getzlaf, and Bobby Ryan). But their commitment to defense leaves a lot to be desired. Only Detroit averaged more goals allowed per game than the Ducks among playoff teams. You can attribute that to their very good goalie, Jonas Hiller, but everything gets magnified in the playoffs. I foresee more problematic mistakes for the Ducks defensively, and I think Nashville will be opportunistic.

Prediction: Nashville in 6


Coming soon: Eastern Conference predictions...

2011 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Keeper Analysis

I did this last year, and it was fun, and a good exercise for me, so I'm doing it again. I'll be assigning point values to each team's eight keepers. The max value for any one player is 10, the minimum is 0, so the maximum total keeper score is 80. We'll go in draft order.

One note: there was a single trade between the submission of keeper lists and the draft. After some debate, I've decided to rate the keeper lists AFTER the trade. That is, these are the keeper lists as they stood going into the draft.

Here we go.

Those Guys

• Adrian Gonzalez, 1B - 10 points
  As I suggested last year, leaving San Diego was going to be a boon for him. Now that he's gone (and into one of the best lineups in baseball), I expect big things.
• Alex Rodriguez, 3B - 8 points
  He's getting a little older, and his production has slipped a bit, but he's still one of the most consistently productive players in fantasy.
• Mike Stanton, OF - 5 points
  I don't love him this year, but he looks to have Adam Dunn upside, and in a keeper league, you bet a lot on upside.
• Shane Victorino, OF - 5 points
  He's a speed guy who pitches in on run production and a little bit on power. And his lineup is stacked.
• Bobby Abreu, OF - 4 points
  Even a slight bounce back on batting average would make Abreu a big time asset this year. But, long term, it's unlikely he produces enough for long enough to be justified.
• Josh Johnson, SP - 7 points
  He had a career year last year, but you've got to be a little cautious with a guy who's missed as much time as Johnson. Still, the ability is there.
• Jonathan Sanchez, SP - 4 points
  I drafted Sanchez, so obviously I'm a fan. He also had a career year, but the strikeouts have always been great. No reason to think he can't build on last year and be solid again.
  
• Daniel Hudson, SP - 4 points
  He was utterly dominant after being traded to the Diamondbacks. He's got a very limited track record, but there are reasons to be excited about this youngster.
  

Riders of Rohan

• Prince Fielder, 1B - 7 points
  The power is there, and it will be there, but he's kind of tough to project outside of that. And he's also kind of tough to project within that. As in, will he hit 35, or will he hit 48?
• Ian Kinsler, 2B - 6 points
  So much potential, and some of it realized, but the constant injuries are beginning to wear on fantasy owners. Me, mostly.
• Evan Longoria, 3B - 10 points
  He's an across-the-board producer at a non-outfield position; that makes him pretty damn good.
• Matt Kemp, OF - 8 points
  The attitude concerns are there, but so it a plethora of talent. Power, speed, average, the whole package could be in there, somewhere.
  
• Jose Bautista, 3B/OF - 5 points
  Will he be able to repeat his power explosion from 2010? Probably not. But golly, he was good last year.
• Alex Rios, OF - 6 points
  Ozzie Guillen's infatuation with the stolen base should continue to prove useful for Rios owners.
• Jon Lester, SP - 8 points
  Great strikeouts, great wins, good averages.
• Clayton Kershaw, SP - 7 points
  Maybe even better than Lester, but he still has trouble getting decisions. Eventually, though, I'd expect him to figure it out.

Vandelay Industries

• Miguel Cabrera, 1B - 10 points
  Alcohol questions aside, Cabrera is legitimately the best hitter in the American League.
• Rickie Weeks, 2B - 6 points
  Weeks is impossible to value in all circumstances. Six points just seemed like the most reasonable "I don't know" amount
• Elvis Andrus, SS - 4 points
  If shortstop wasn't so weak, Andrus would rate lower. He's really a two-category producer at this point: runs and steals.
• Ichiro Suzuki, OF - 4 points
  Take Andrus, add in batting average, but remove SS eligibility, and you've got Ichiro. Something tells me he'll get some more RBIs this year, though.
• Zack Greinke, SP - 6 points
  He's in a situation considerably better than he was in Kansas City, and the talent is all there for a rebound...or a meltdown. Should be fun to watch either way.
• Ubaldo Jimenez, SP - 7 points
  Ridiculous first half, solid second half. Similar overall numbers are pretty reasonable, though.
• Yovani Gallardo, SP - 5 points
  Awesome strikeout numbers, but he lets an awful lot of guys get on base. Something's going to give eventually, one way or the other.
• Adam Wainwright, SP - 1 point
  I'm less negative on this keep than other people, but it's definitely a tough one. He's a superstar pitcher, but when you KNOW he's not playing this year...though call.

Dunedain Rangers

• Buster Posey, C/1B - 6 points
  I like Posey. But he's getting drafted in the 3rd round based on two-thirds of a season of solid production. I want to see more before I invest that kind of pick.
• Adam Dunn, 1B - 4 points
  Defense doesn't count, so that's good. And he's one of the safest picks in the game.
• Adrian Beltre, 3B - 4 points
  He hit .334 in 2004, then hit .255, .268, .276, .266, and .265 before hitting .321 last year. I'm not paying for a .300 average, and without that, he's just a decent third baseman.
  
• Hunter Pence, OF - 5 points
  He seems to get undervalued, but getting 25 HR and 14 SB with a .282 average in back to back seasons seems pretty decent to me.
• Jay Bruce, OF - 4 points
  He dramatically improved his batting average, but his power rate slipped. If he can ever put it all together, he'll be great, but I'm not holding my breath.
• Dan Haren, SP - 6 points
  He had trouble early last season, but bounced back in a big way after being traded to the Angels. I'd count on 3.00, 1.15, 175 Ks and 15 wins.
• Jered Weaver, SP - 7 points
  He's becoming less and less hittable each year. I like that kind of trend.
• Neftali Feliz, SP/RP - 4 points
  I like Feliz at closer because he's a known commodity there, but if he can translate his success to starting pitching, his value goes up.
  

Howard's Heroes (or whatever his name is this week)

• Ryan Howard, 1B - 8 points
  He's basically the same as Prince Fielder, except you trust him a little more because of his crazy good lineup
• Mark Teixeira, 1B - 8 points
  I'm a believer in Teixeira. I know he's been up and down in New York, but I just can't see him not succeeding.
• Dan Uggla, 2B - 8 points
  I tried to tell you all, Uggla's the man. A slide down to about .265 wouldn't shock me, but 30 HR and 90 runs and RBIs at second base is effin' good.
• Mark Reynolds, 3B - 3 points
  I don't know, maybe he'll be good? He's the biggest question mark on a team full of them.
• Jacoby Ellsbury, OF - 6 points
  If he can stay healthy, I'd expect 60 steals and 100 runs, with a .300-ish average.
• Matt Cain, SP - 5 points
  He's evolved into a nice little pitcher. And, he won't have to match up against other aces, which is always nice.
• Wandy Rodriguez, SP - 3 points
  Wandy's a tough guy to figure out. But at this point, I see him as just a useful pitcher...not so much a keeper.
• (no 8th keeper) - 2 points
  Getting the supplemental pick isn't worthless.
  

Columbus DamKnights

• Joe Mauer, C - 7 points
  He may have regressed on the power numbers from 2009, but a great batting average and good run production are givens with Mauer.
• Justin Morneau, 1B - 8 points
  We're all pulling for Morneau to get past his concussion and get back to concussing baseballs. What? Too soon?
• Robinson Cano, 2B - 9 points
  Cano's a very nice player, and appears to be a legitimate .315 hitter. I'm just not ready to push him into that tenth point just yet.
• Corey Hart, OF - 4 points
  There was a point when Hart was all the rage as a power/speed guy. But last year, he mostly hit home runs...mostly.
• Grady Sizemore, OF - 3 points
  What can you say about Sizemore? We know he's got speed and power. We don't know if he's healthy, or if he'll ever hit .280 again.
• Ricky Nolasco, SP - 4 points
  Might be this year's Jonathan Sanchez?
• Jeremy Hellickson, SP - 4 points
  Uber pitching prospect who flashed his stuff last year. I'm in.
• Joe Nathan, RP - 2 points
  His spring has been encouraging so far, but coming back from surgery is always risky.

Stewies SexyParties

• Chase Utley, 2B - 8 points
  Healthy, Utley is worth 10 points easy, but it seems like this knee injury has legs.
• Pedro Alvarez, 3B - 5 points
  He's supposed to be the real deal, and he's already shown major league pop. He doesn't have to improve much to be keeper-worthy again next year.
• Hanley Ramirez, SS - 10 points
  The best.
• Ryan Braun, OF - 10 points
  Just a great producer. His power numbers were down last year, but I see that as fluky, not cause for concern.
• Andrew McCutchen, OF - 8 points
  Don't undervalue McCutchen. He's potentially a plus in every category except RBIs, and he's still only 24.
• Colby Rasmus, OF - 5 points
  Two full seasons, but he's still just a .263 career hitter, and hasn't shown much speed. Might be more similar to Jay Bruce than we anticipated.
• Cliff Lee, SP - 8 points
  He's been all around the world in the past few years, but he's posted great numbers everywhere. Now that he's happy and settled, I expect him to really hit stride.
• Roy Oswalt, SP - 7 points
  Uh oh. You know what we did? We forgot how good Oswalt can be.

Akron Pronks

• Victor Martinez, C/1B - 8 points
  He should be going ahead of Posey in every draft. You know why? Because Posey's upside is Martinez.
• Kevin Youkilis, 1B - 7 points
  He should pick up 3B eligibility early this season, and his contributions in runs, RBIs, and batting average should only go up with the additions to the Red Sox lineup.
• Kendrys Morales, 1B - 5 points
  Yahoo says it's Kendrys now. Anyways, he's already got one great season and a tragic injury on his resume. All he needs now is a bounce back and he'll have a movie made about him.
  
• Brian Roberts, 2B - 4 points
  Back injuries are always cause for concern, but if he's able to straighten things out, he's a great option at a thin position.
• Shin-Soo Choo, OF - 7 points
  You can only go .300-80-20-80-20 so many times before people start betting on it. Two, actually. The number is two.
• Jayson Werth, OF - 6 points
  I don't expect Werth to hit .296 again (he's a career .272 hitter), but the rest of last year's numbers seem in line, even in a weaker Nationals lineup.
• Drew Stubbs, OF - 5 points
  Way too many strikeouts, but he's still young. Another guy I should have never dropped.
• Tim Lincecum, SP - 9 points
  Other than an 0-5, 7.82/1.82 August, Lincecum was tremendous again last season. I've still got him rated as a top 5 pitcher.

Mercer AutoWreckers

• Brian McCann, C - 5 points
  It's tough to get consistent play out of a catcher, and McCann is one of the most reliable guys out there. The Wreckers did pay a ton for him, though.
• Joey Votto, 1B - 10 points
  He's a slightly leaner Miguel Cabrera.
• Dustin Pedroia, 2B - 6 points
  Injuries ended his season last year, but he appears fully healthy and ready to do his part in the stacked Boston offense.
• Derek Jeter, SS - 6 points
  Even a repeat of last year's "down" performance (.270-111-10-67-18) would be very solid, considering this year's crop of shortstops.
• Andre Ethier, OF - 4 points
  We're all still waiting for Ethier to put it all together. Maybe Don Mattingly is the guy to help him do it?
• Roy Halladay, SP - 10 points
  No starting pitcher is better.
• Felix Hernandez, SP - 10 points
  But Felix comes close.
• Heath Bell, RP - 4 points
  He may still just be a closer, but another great year adds "proven" to his list of characteristics.

Feisty Mosquitoes

• Brandon Phillips, 2B - 6 points
  He'll hit about .270 with about 20 homers and about 20 steals. At second base, that works.
  
• Ryan Zimmerman, 3B - 5 points
  I think Zimmerman's a fine player, but he might be one of the more overrated guys in fantasy baseball. He'll be solid, but unspectacular.
• Troy Tulowitzki, SS - 10 points
  It's tough to trust him to stay healthy, but even missing 40 games last year, Tulo was extremely good. Expect more good things.
• Carl Crawford, OF - 10 points
  You can't tell me that Crawford's value will go down in that lineup. You just can't.
• Matt Holliday, OF - 8 points
  This cat can hit. Oh, and batting next to Albert Pujols never hurt anybody's numbers.
• Justin Upton, OF - 7 points
  The guy is just 23 years old. If he can play 150+ games in 2011, he's basically a lock for 25-25.
• CC Sabathia, SP - 8 points
  Sort of like Adam Dunn, CC's reliability gets undervalued sometimes. He's had at least 17 wins and 197 strikeouts in each of the past four seasons.
• Stephen Strasburg, SP - 1 point
  Mostly the Mosquitoes get a point for guts. Strasburg is out until at least September.
  

The Usual Suspects

• Albert Pujols, 1B - 10 points
  Seriously, let's argue about this.
• David Wright, 3B - 9 points
  I'm willing to look at Wright's down 2009 as an anomaly as long as he is.
• Jimmy Rollins, SS - 5 points
  Tough to make a call on Rollins. His upside still puts him as a potential 25/40 player, but he's been way off of that recently.
• Nelson Cruz, OF - 5 points
  If you look at Cruz's numbers, you're going to be surprised. He might pull it all together this year and challenge for the MVP.
• Jason Heyward, OF - 6 points
  Heyward really seemed to settle in during the second half of 2010. All the physical tools are there to take the next step. Matt Kemp upside is what I see.
• Justin Verlander, SP - 7 points
  Back to back fantastic seasons means Verlander's legit...probably. Have to wonder what happened in 2008, though.
• Tommy Hanson, SP - 6 points
  Hanson's got all the makings of a star, and his August and September were just filthy. Of course, plenty of guys can be stars; let's see if he can come through.
• Mat Latos, SP - 6 points
  Latos was remarkable last season, a plus in all the starting pitching categories. I expect a bit of a letdown, but it's tough to be that good and not be mostly legit...heck, even Jeff D'Amico couldn't put up those kind of Ks.

Cleveland Enforcers

• Jose Reyes, SS - 8 points
  Health is a minor concern, the lineup is a minor concern, but the player is good. Very good.
• Carlos Gonzalez, OF - 9 points
  I've read a few articles that try to temper Gonzalez's insane 2010 season, but those kinds of numbers don't just happen. Not all of them at once.
• Josh Hamilton, OF - 8 points
  One of the harder high-end players to judge, Hamilton showed last year that he can be among the best. I choose to bank on his talent and competitiveness.
• B.J. Upton, OF - 4 points
  Upton is not a power hitter. He averaged 15.5 homers per season over the past four years (in an average of 143 games per season). He's fine for steals, anything else is gravy.
• Cole Hamels, SP - 6 points
  Nice rebound after a frustrating 2009. However, his win-loss record seems awfully unimpressive for a team averaging 94 wins over the last three years.
• David Price, SP - 7 points
  Listen to these home numbers for Price: 9-2, 107 Ks in 114.2 IP, 1.96 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. Who knew orange juice was so good for you?
• Francisco Liriano, SP - 4 points
  Liriano seems to be fully healthy and recovered from arm surgery that cost him the entire 2007 season, but he may never be the same again.
• Max Scherzer, SP - 4 points
  Because there weren't enough guys I bailed on that ended up being good. Thanks Max.
  

Here are the standings in order of total points, along with the change from last year (and here's a link to last year's article, for your reference):

1. Stewies SexyParties - 61 points (+1 from last year)
2. Riders of Rohan - 57 points (-8)
   
3. Feisty Mosquitoes - 55 points (-7)
   
4. Mercer AutoWreckers - 55 points (+3)
   
5. The Usual Suspects - 54 points (+4)
   
6. Akron Pronks - 51 points (-3)
   
7. Cleveland Enforcers - 50 points (+1)
   
8. Those Guys - 47 points (+2)
   
9. Vandelay Industries - 43 points (-8)
   
10. Howard's Heroes - 43 points (-16)
    
11. Columbus DamKnights - 41 points (-7)
    
12. Dunedain Rangers - 40 points (+1)
    

Just from a cursory glance, it looks like I was harder on guys this year. Most teams went down, some a lot, including my own. That probably means that teams who went up at all this year are in fact dramatically improved, while teams that went down are probably not actually that much worse.

Fantasy Baseball 2011 - First Round

Two years ago I did a mental exercise of sorts and drafted my own first and second rounds of a 12-team fantasy baseball league. I didn't do it last year, but I'm ready to have another go. Again, I only do the first couple rounds, because I don't want to give away any of my personal information about guys I might be targeting when my ultra-competitive keeper league drafts this Saturday. But the first two rounds are the kind of hardball decisions that can make or break a draft. So let's get down to it.

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins - I'll summarize my argument for taking Ramirez over Albert Pujols. Shortstop is miserable this year. Hanley is an across-the-board producer at the game's weakest non-catcher position.

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals - Pujols is the epitome of reliability. His .312 average last year was actually 19 points lower than his career average. The guy is a hitting machine, and you won't be unhappy with him, even if you take him first.

3. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - This is where your draft list gets a lot tougher. So I'll repeat: shortstop is miserable this year. Tulowitzki has had a couple of really nice seasons, and just a filthy September: .322, 30 R, 15 HR, 40 RBI. Even after only playing 18 games in June and July, his season was good enough to rate in the top 25 in Yahoo's ranking system. If he can stay healthy, it looks like he's the real deal, and his wide contributions at a thin position make him one of the more useful guys out there.

4. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds - Almost every list I saw coming into this season actually had Miguel Cabrera at #3, behind Pujols and Ramirez. The thing is, Votto has all the pedigree that Cabrera has, he puts up the same kind of numbers, but he's got the ability to contribute on the basepaths as well. Add in the question marks that we're hearing about Cabrera's drinking issues, which could cost him some playing time this season, and I think Votto is a decidedly better pick this season.

5. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays - Third base isn't quite shortstop, but it's still a fairly tough position to fill. And Longoria is another 5 category contributor who's valuable no matter where you play him. It's also worth mentioning that his 22 home runs last year were actually a career low. An uptick back to around 30 HR is completely reasonable. Partner that with a .285 average, 100 runs and RBI, and the potential for double-digit steals, and I think we're happy.

6. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers - Listen, on a basic, baseball-only level, Cabrera is better than everybody except for Pujols. He's a fantastic hitter with tremendous power, and he posts stats every year, without fail. But there are two small factors that pull Cabrera down from #3 to #6 in my book. First, the aforementioned alcohol issues. I'm not too concerned with it affecting his on-field performance (it doesn't seem to have ever had an impact in the past), but with the legal system being involved again, there's the chance of missing some time. Second, he's still a first basemen. I mean that in two regards: he's only 1B eligible, and he doesn't steal any bases.

7. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies - This is one spot where I tend to differ from general fantasy baseball opinions. Most people will have Robinson Cano as their #1 second baseman. But Utley is a completely proven commodity, who from 2005-2009 averaged the following stat line: .301, 111 R, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 15 SB. He was injured for part of last year, but came back and looked fine. He had 8 multi-hit games in September. I'll bet on Utley every time.

8. Carl Crawford, OF, Red Sox - A lot of people are going to tell you that Crawford's speed numbers will go down because he'll end up batting 2nd or 3rd in the Red Sox lineup. Those people are retarded. Crawford batted in the two-hole 408 times last year, and in the three-hole 192 times. Will he steal 50 bases? Probably not. But he's a very skilled hitter with pop and speed, and he's going into a lineup that might be the best in baseball. I'd expect a broad range of statistical contributions.

9. David Wright, 3B, Mets - Two years ago, David Wright was a "question mark." His power dipped to 10 HR and 72 RBI, his steals spiked to 27, but his batting average stayed high (.307). In 2010, Wright got back to his normal line, though he posted the lowest average of his career at .283. I trust the overall package, though. Wright will always find a way to be a fantasy force, even if his team is in constant disarray. Constant, extreme disarray.

10. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies - Alright, chances are he's not going to go 34-26 again. And it's almost a certainty that his batting average will drop off from the crazy .336 he hit last year. The thing is..."almost"..."chances are"...but what if? He certainly showed that he has the capacity to be a nightmare for opposing pitchers, and a ridiculous fantasy contributor (#1 ranked player in Yahoo last season). I wouldn't necessarily recommend Gonzalez as a pick for everybody here, but if you're pretty confident in your ability to draft down the board, his upside is tremendous.

11. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers - Ever since he came into the league, Braun has been a spectacularly steady producer for fantasy owners. Very good power, good speed, career .307 hitter, plenty of run production. Basically, Braun is exactly what you're looking for if Carlos Gonzalez looked too risky for you.

12. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox - This tier of first basemen is a little tough to analyze, until you actually start to consider the difference in Gonzalez's situation between last year and this year. In 2010, Gonzalez hit 36 points higher on the road, and hit 20 HR away from Petco, versus just 11 in San Diego. Partner that with the fact that he goes from the Padres (22nd in the majors in runs scored) to the Red Sox (2nd), and you're looking at a very real chance of a .300-110-35-110 season out of Gonzalez...as a floor.

Why I'm Taking Hanley Over Pujols

As you might have been able to tell from the title of this post, I'm assuming some level of knowledge with regards to fantasy baseball among readers of this article. If you're uninterested in fantasy baseball, you're probably better off waiting until April, when the NFL draft comes around, and the NHL season draws to a close.

Every list I look at has Albert Pujols as its #1 player. He's the consensus first player that should come off the board in every league. And really, you can never go wrong acquiring Albert Pujols. He's a megastar, unquestionably the best hitter in baseball. He gives you batting average, runs, home runs, and RBI, all in spades, and even tosses in a couple steals, because why not?

But if it's me with the #1 overall pick, or setting up a top __ list, or deciding how to allocate my auction funds, Hanley Ramirez is at the top of my rankings. Since it'd be a pretty boring post if I didn't, I'll explain why.

(By the way, this article assumes a 12-team league. In a 10-team league, position eligibility loses some of its importance, and I think makes it a dead heat between Hanley and Pujols).

We'll start with a look at their stats. These are their average 5x5 stats over the past five years (starting with Hanley's first full season):

Ramirez: .313, 112 runs, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 39 SB
Pujols: .330, 111 runs, 41 HR, 122 RBI, 9 SB

Obviously you're ecstatic with either of those lines. Hanley gives you across the board plus production other than RBI, and Pujols will post outstanding numbers in four different categories. Based purely on numbers, you're probably leaning towards Pujols, and that's perfectly reasonable. You're thinking, "Oh, I can just draft Michael Bourn in the 11th round to take care of my steals." And you can, of course you can. I won't ever say that taking Pujols first overall is a bad pick. It's a safe pick, a sure thing, and you'd be following the advice of all the experts.

But not my advice (notice how I just labeled myself a non-expert...oops!). I'm assuming you've all done ten or twelve fantasy baseball drafts, yes? When you're going through your draft, true or false, you much more often find yourself trying to find a reasonable steals guy to draft than a reasonable power guy to draft?

Of course it's steals. The thing about steals guys is that, when it comes to baseball, they're actually not all that valuable. Sure, speed is nice, and if you can be a very effective basestealer, you can put yourself into a position to score a lot of runs. But a bopper will always be more valuable, have a more solidified lineup spot, and thus, be a safer pick in the middle rounds. Think about guys like Dave Roberts and Eric Young, speed guys who disappeared because their speed wasn't enough to keep them playing every day.

The speed of Hanley acts as a counter-weight to Pujols' power numbers. Now, Pujols still has a 17 point edge in batting average. What position does he play again? First base? And Hanley plays...shortstop, that's right. But is position eligibility something you even want to take into account at the top of the draft?

Umm...yes? Why is Robinson Cano's average draft position 9.9? Because it's so impossible to find a .315 hitter who gets 25 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 runs? Kevin Youkilis is going 19 picks later. Vlad Guerrero is going 107 picks later. The reason Cano is so enticing (beyond his talent) is that he's a second baseman.

To wrap it all up, what position would rather be in 22 picks: you've got a huge-hitting 1B and holes at all the tougher positions to fill, or you've got a do-everything SS, and can wait for the right 1B at the right time in the draft? As a bit of reference, here are a couple guys at each position, their numbers from last year, and their average draft position (ignoring guys whose ADP is less than 24, since theoretically they won't be available, and guys with multiple position eligibility):

1B

• Kevin Youkilis* (.307, 77 R, 19 HR, 62 RBI in 102 games) - ADP of 28.6
  
• Adam Dunn (.260, 85 R, 38 HR, 103 RBI) - ADP of 50.6
• Kendry Morales (.290, 29 R, 11 HR, 39 RBI in 51 games) - ADP of 59.6
• Justin Morneau (.345, 53 R, 18 HR, 56 RBI in 81 games) - ADP of 60.3
• Billy Butler (.318, 77 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI) - ADP of 66.5
  
• Paul Konerko (.312, 89 R, 39 HR, 111 RBI) - ADP of 93.4
  

SS

• Jose Reyes (.282, 83 R, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 30 SB in 133 games) - ADP of 27.2
• Jimmy Rollins (.243, 48 R, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 17 SB in 88 games) - ADP of 44.6
• Derek Jeter (.270, 111 R, 10 HR, 67 RBI, 18 SB) - ADP of 52.5
• Alexei Ramirez (.282, 83 R, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB) - ADP of 70.2
• Elvis Andrus (.265, 88 R, 0 HR, 35 RB, 32 SB) - ADP of 99.3
• Stephen Drew (.278, 83 R, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 10 SB) - ADP of 100.4
  

*Youkilis is slated to start at 3B for the Red Sox, so I'd reckon part of his value comes from that additional pending position eligibility.

The ultimate scenario would be if Jose Reyes were to fall to your second round pick, but there's just no way you could count on that. And if you miss out on Reyes, you're sifting through the bargain bin at shortstop. Meanwhile, you should be able to get Morales or Morneau with your 5th round pick (#49), or Konerko all the way down in the 7th (#73). Or, if you wanted to just ignore 1B for a while, both Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche had at least 19 HR, 75 R, and 80 RBI, and they're both going after pick #200, putting their draft spot somewhere in the middle of the 16th round.

You know what shortstop falls in that area? Yunel Escobar (.256, 60 R, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 6 SB in 135 games).

Take Hanley. Unless you're in the same league as me, and I've got the #2 pick. In that scenario, Albert Pujols is a no-brainer. :)