Sunday, October 29, 2017

The Baseball Story of Dale Murphy / Is Dale Murphy a Hall of Famer?

This article was founded in the following conversational sequence between myself and Other Joe:
Me: So you got any suggestions for people for me to look at as my next topic for either "The Baseball Story of..." or "Is He a Hall of Famer?"
Other Joe: Dale Murphy.
Me: Is Dale Murphy already a Hall of Famer?
Other Joe: Sounds like you have an article to write.
So I started looking into Dale Murphy (not already a Hall of Famer, by the way). And as I delved into his history, his stats, his awards, I became really uncertain as to whether or not he was legitimately a Hall of Famer.

My decision became that I'm going to write this article, not knowing where I'm headed at the end, and try to be open to whatever result to which my writing brings me. And because I want to get the whole picture, this is going to be a combination of an abbreviated version of "The Baseball Story of Dale Murphy" and "Is Dale Murphy a Hall of Famer?" You get like 1.5 articles for the price of one. Which is still nothing, but hey, the price is right either way.

Early Days

Dale Murphy was drafted by the Braves 5th overall in 1974, and was a September call-up in 1976 and 1977. He acquitted himself nicely in his second September (.316-2-14), and managed full-time at-bats for Atlanta in 1978, going .226 with 23 homers and 79 RBI. He also led the league in strikeouts with 145, the first of three different times pacing the league in that category.

From 1979-81, he'd have his share of ups and downs, batting anywhere from 2nd to 7th as he would average .270-22-65 per year. He'd settled in as a solid bat for the Braves, but was hardly a potential HOFer.

A Monster Stretch

From 1982-1985, Murphy was arguably the most exciting hitter in baseball. He played in every game for the Braves all four of those years, and earned MVP awards in 1982 and 1983. His average season was as follows: .296 batting average, 114 runs scored, 36 home runs, and 110 RBI. And remember, this is in an era when baseball went without a 50 HR hitter for twenty years.

Murphy picked up a bunch of that notable "black ink," the kind of stuff that would catch your attention on the back of a baseball card. He led the league in HR twice, RBI twice, SLG twice, and R, BB, and SO once each.

He had a down year in 1986, but bounced right back in '87 with a career-high 44 home runs as well as another season of 105+ runs and RBI. He finished 11th in the MVP voting with the Braves languishing towards the bottom of the standings.

Vanishing from Relevance

That was pretty much the end of his reign of terror, though. His free-swinging ways started to get the best of him, as he piled up 125+ strikeouts in each of his next three seasons, slipping back into the 6-hole all-or-nothing hitter he had been at the beginning of his career. He joined the Colorado Rockies for their inaugural season, but only managed 49 plate appearances, and didn't make much of them when he got them, hitting .143 with one double being his only extra-base hit. He played his last game in May of 1993.

Is Dale Murphy a Hall of Famer?

So, time for some comparables, right? That's how we judge people most effectively, against other people. Two people who come to mind pretty quickly are a pair of guys who also played for the Rockies, but with a lot more flourish.

Andres Galarraga was a solid middle-of-the-order hitter for the Expos in the late 80s and early 90s, though he shared Murphy's penchant for swinging and missing; he led the NL in strikeouts for three consecutive seasons from 1988 to 1990. He really took off after joining the Rockies in 1993, batting a scorching .370 in their inaugural season. He followed that with five years that matched Murphy's relative mastery, averaging a .305-102-39-120 line.

But the whole league was trending upwards, and he only finished as high as sixth in MVP voting. Let's try another guy, a pitcher this time.

Tim Lincecum had a pair of Cy Young awards in his second and third seasons, but trailed off mightily in the second half of his career. He reached the same heights as Murphy, though he had more team success and less longevity.

What's the Verdict?

I think Dale Murphy falls just behind Juan Gonzalez in my assessment of his Hall of Fame credentials. While Gonzalez may very well have been a beneficiary of illegal supplements, he has always denied that, and no legitimate proof has ever been produced to indicate decisively otherwise. And his production, particularly during his prime, was exceptional. He averaged .302-36-116 for ten years from 1992-2001, and earned a pair of MVP trophies himself. His lows were higher than Murphy's, and he had a longer, more productive career.

And all of that considered, I think Gonzalez (and as a result Murphy) falls short of the Hall of Fame.

While Gonzalez and Murphy had great years, and Gonzalez even had a fairly prolific 10-year stretch, baseball has always been a game about longevity. Cal Ripken Jr. is one of the legends of the game because he played every day for years and years and years. The big numbers in people's minds when they consider players for the Hall of Fame aren't 200 hits or 300 strikeouts or even 60, 61, or 70 home runs. The big numbers are 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, 300 wins. Longevity matters.

Hall of Fame status should be reserved for those players who embody what we love most about baseball, not just the highlights, but the grind.

Hank Aaron never hit 50 home runs in a single season, but he's lauded as perhaps the greatest home run hitter of all time, because he did it every year for many, many years.

Ted Williams is revered not just for hitting .406 in the third season of his career, but for somehow battering 521 home runs during a career that gave up perhaps its three best years to fighting World War II.

That's not to say that you can't be Joe DiMaggio and do something no one has ever done like hit in 56 consecutive games to solidify your spot in Cooperstown. But you have to already be close, and while Murphy and Lincecum Gonzo had a couple of MVP (or Cy Young) seasons, none of them has the "never-been-done-before" nature to it. Plenty of guys have won MVPs.


So anyways, that's the whole story about Dale Murphy. It was an interesting little investigation, though I wish I'd come back with a positive result. I feel like this whole series is becoming, "Why Doesn't XYZ Belong In the Hall of Fame?" Ah well, I'm sure there'll be an ebb and flow to it, as there is to all things.

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

WWE TLC 2017 Results

So obviously there was a big change-up in two of the matches at TLC, inserting AJ Styles and Kurt Angle for Bray Wyatt and Roman Reigns, respectively. I had a really shitty and busy weekend, and I gave it some thought and decided I wouldn't change my prediction based on the changes anyways, so I didn't post any updates.

Sasha Banks vs. Alicia Fox (Pre-Show)

My prediction: Fox via pin
Result: Banks via submission

Not that I care a whole lot, but I still think this was a waste of a match. You don't need to add a random win over Alicia Fox to convince me that Sasha Banks is really good. A six-day feud is just unnecessary.

Cedric Alexander and Rich Swann vs. The Brian Kendrick and Jack Gallagher

My prediction: Kendrick and Gallagher
Result: Alexander and Swann via pin

This match was fine. I picked it incorrectly, but again, my level of caring was just zero. Another situation where a manager would do a ton to give us some story substance. I think the biggest problem with 205 Live is that it gives potential managers a lot of space to go not be managers. And the WWE could really use some managers.

Emma vs. Asuka

My prediction: Asuka via submission
Result: Asuka via submission


Raw Women's Championship Match: Alexa Bliss (c) vs. Mickie James

My prediction: Alexa Bliss via pin
Result: Alexa Bliss via pin

I love how Alexa manages to win these matches basically "clean," but always with some kind of tainting that makes you remember she's a heel. This time it was a fakeout begging off that let her lure Mickie into a turnbuckle smash and her finisher DDT. She's one of the best-booked heels in the company right now.

Cruiserweight Championship Match: Kalisto (c) vs. Enzo Amore

My prediction: Amore via pin
Result: Amore via pin

Kind of an old school "dirty" win for the heel, a thumb to the eye while the ref wasn't looking and then a finisher for the 1-2-3. I'm okay with it. Not sure what the cruiserweight division has to offer going forward, but they stand a better chance of being interesting with Enzo than with Kalisto as the champ.

WTF Match: Finn Balor/The Demon King vs. Bray Wyatt/Sister Abigail A.J. Styles

My prediction: Pain...and I guess Balor via pin
Result: Balor via pin

Look, maybe Wyatt would have won against Balor according to the original script. But there's no way they were going to book Styles with no buildup as being the first person to beat "The Demon King" version of Finn Balor.

Styles and Balor put on a pretty decent albeit very vanilla match. Would've liked to see more substance to it, but I understand that a guy flying across the globe and jumping in at the last second is probably not ready to give a match-of-the-year performance.

Only thing I'd add is that, in how the match played out, it felt like a waste of one of those first-ever "dream matches." Oh well.

The Shield (minus Reigns, plus Kurt Angle) vs. The Miz, Sheamus, Cesaro, Braun Strowman, and Kane

My prediction: The Shield via pin
Result: The Shield via pin

Adding Kurt Angle at the last minute didn't make the match less of a mess, that's for sure. I'd be interested to know how the match was originally booked, but my guess is that Angle filled Reigns' role pretty much to the letter. It seems like a situation where they would've sent Roman out via some big bump, had him return mid-match, just to continue conditioning people to cheer when they hear Roman's music.

The pop for Angle's music was definitely bigger than Reigns' would have been, though. And look, it was great to see Kurt in the ring again. He's so charismatic, so entertaining, and obviously still can get around pretty well. If that's his last ever match, he did it well.

Overall: 5/7 (71% correct)

As I said, I had a shitty weekend. My dog had surgery on Friday, and we really don't know if it was truly successful, or how long he has. So my head wasn't really in the PPV, and I can't say for sure how I felt about it. Probably I'll never be able to look at it objectively, because of all the emotions I've got associated with it now.

But in my current mentality, it was okay. I didn't like that we had so little in the way of story advancement, with all of the big players confined to 1.5 matches (and Lesnar obviously not on the show, because reasons). The matches were okay. And the main event, while a train wreck, was moderately entertaining. Good to see that Kane still can acquit himself pretty well in the ring. That guy's an all-time great.

Here's hoping Survivor Series gives us more story to work with (doubtful), and that my dog makes a full recovery. If I have to choose between them, though, Survivor Series can suck an egg.

Hang in there Franklin.

Friday, October 20, 2017

WWE TLC 2017 Predictions

In looking over this card, I'm having some regrets about starting up this whole "do a prediction blog for each PPV" policy. TLC looks to be a really, really, really bad pay-per-view.

The Universal, Intercontinental, and Raw Tag Team titles are all not being defended, which dramatically reduces the amount of excitement surrounding the card. When that happens, the other matches have to pick up the slack; Wyatt/Balor V and a 5-on-3 meaningless main event do not pick up said slack.

This is a pay-per-view that really would've benefited from a random Brock Lesnar title defense, but we don't even get that. This is gonna be bad.

Sasha Banks vs. Alicia Fox (Pre-Show)

I can't really bring myself to care about this match. I think Fox wins dirty, under the assumption that they hope this to be just the beginning of a feud. Also because heels always win the pre-show matches.

My prediction: Fox via pin

Cedric Alexander and Rich Swann vs. The Brian Kendrick and Jack Gallagher

I have to admit, I'm completely out of the loop when it comes to the cruiserweight feuds outside of the stuff that gets pushed on Raw. I like Jack Gallagher as a heel, and Kendrick has always been a really skilled performer. Swann and Alexander can put on decent matches too.

When in doubt on a Raw PPV, pick the heels.

My prediction: Kendrick and Gallagher

Emma vs. Asuka

With great writing and incredible work, Emma could win this match and keep the Asuka hype train moving, but the great writing doesn't exist in the current WWE. There's a non-zero chance they try it anyways, but my money is on the easy story here.

My prediction: Asuka via submission

Raw Women's Championship Match: Alexa Bliss (c) vs. Mickie James

Hard to say what's going to happen here. Initially I thought this was just a filler feud to set up for Bliss vs. Asuka, but the buildup has been effective at convincing me Mickie has a shot. Of course, now that I've become aware that the buildup is what's convincing me that Mickie has a shot, I'm back to my original viewpoint.

Yeah. Yeah that makes the most sense.

My prediction: Alexa Bliss via pin

Cruiserweight Championship Match: Kalisto (c) vs. Enzo Amore

As an aside, if Neville doesn't return to the WWE, it'll be another blow to an already unexciting cruiserweight division. It's a shame because the talent is there for a really exceptional division to exist, between Neville and Austin Aries, Akira Tozawa, Gallagher, Kendrick, and yes Enzo.

I remember being excited about cruiserweight matches back in the late 90s in WCW, with guys like Chris Jericho, Dean Malenko, Eddie Guerrero, Rey Mysterio Jr., etc. There's no reason you couldn't hit that same height when you're the only game in town.

Alright, back to this match. I feel like Enzo is likely to reclaim the title, no doubt through nefarious means. Maybe he puts together a small stable of heels who he "pays" to ensure his victory. Or maybe he wins on his own with something like his victory over Neville. Something predictable but useful.

My prediction: Amore via pin

WTF Match: Finn Balor/The Demon King vs. Bray Wyatt/Sister Abigail

I'm so pissed off at this "feud." I don't know why they dislike each other, I don't know what the premise is supposed to be with these alter-egos, I don't know why the one question left for Bray Wyatt would be answered with "it's just me in a dress." It feels like they didn't know what to do with Balor or Wyatt, so they just threw some terrible Hollywood director at the feud and figured it would get worked out.

Oh, which is exactly what happened with Wyatt and Orton earlier this year, with that bizarre projected bug ring at Wrestlemania and then the terrible House of Horrors match. I'm horrified to say it, but I wonder if Wyatt has some input on these miserable storylines.

Or maybe the deal was, "Okay, we'll let you win the title at Elimination Chamber, but then you have to let my idiot nephew Todd write all your stories the rest of the year." And Bray says, "Sure, how bad could they be?"

Oh Bray.

My prediction: Pain...and I guess Balor via pin

The Shield vs. The Miz, Sheamus, Cesaro, Braun Strowman, and Kane

Speaking of WTF. Why would you throw these five people together, and ignore the fact that The Miz already had a stable? Why would you book a 5-versus-3 match? Why did Kane come back? Why does TLC have the IC and Tag title holders in a non-title quasi-handicap match with random other folks?


I think this match will be effectively a "no contest" in the end. This whole deal smacks of outside interference (Bo Dallas? Curtis Axel?), surprise returns (Samoa Joe? The Undertaker?), turns (Kane? Reigns?), and utter nonsense (everything WWE). But the WWE doesn't go with the "sports entertainment finish" these days, so I'll say that at the end, The Shield gets the victory, as they have three main-event-caliber wrestlers, and their opponents have 1.5 (Braun and sort of The Miz).

My prediction: The Shield via pin

My expectations were high for Hell In A Cell, and they were met and exceeded. My expectations for TLC are ridiculously low. I'm worried that they might not even be met.

I guess you never know.

Sunday, October 15, 2017

WWE Hell in a Cell 2017 Results

For as ho-hum as No Mercy was, Hell in a Cell was actually a really, really good pay-per-view. While we still didn't get a ton in the way of story advancement, stuff did happen, and most of the matches were really entertaining. I'd say it was the best event the WWE has put on all year.

And that's not just because I had a lot of correct predictions.  :)

Chad Gable and Shelton Benjamin vs. The Hype Bros

My prediction: Gable and Benjamin via pin
Result: Gable and Benjamin via pin

Decent match, though nothing really happened. But that's what you usually get on the pre-show. I will say that Gable and Benjamin are starting to show some more chemistry, which I do appreciate. I wish they had an actual tag team name, but if they're entertaining I can get over it (see: Sheamus and Cesaro).

Randy Orton vs. Rusev

My prediction: Orton via RKOOUTTANOWHERE

God, they gotta do something with Rusev. He's just so entertaining, such a great heel even during the match. His whole style, his crowd interactions, everything screams that he should have gotten the push that Jinder Mahal got. Frustrating.

Smackdown Tag Team Championship Match in Hell in a Cell: The New Day (c) vs. The Usos

My prediction: The Usos via pin
Result: The Usos via pin

This match was phenomenal. They had a bunch of great spots, the workers are great, they were creative and explosive. Hopefully this opens up The New Day for some singles competition as well, as it feels like a waste to have three great workers condensed into a single match every month.

Smackdown Women's Championship: Natalya (c) vs. Charlotte

My prediction: Charlotte via submission
Result: Charlotte via disqualification

I don't find Natalya all that entertaining to watch, and this match wasn't any exception. It wasn't a bad match or anything, just didn't feel like it had the excitement of a title match. That it ended in a DQ was fine with me; extending the strife between these two is okay, and you want Charlotte to stay strong. She doesn't need to take a loss to Natty, even a clean one.

Dolph Ziggler vs. Bobby Roode

My prediction: Ziggler via pin (dirty)
Result: Roode via pin

My first incorrect winner, but I'm okay with it. It set off a continuation of the feud, which is fine with these two accomplished workers. I also absolutely loved Ziggler's 80s heel entrance. I was just thinking that a no-music entrance would be a cool throwback, and while he wasn't the wrestler who came to mind, Ziggler ran with it perfectly.

I mean, of course he did. He's Dolph freakin' Ziggler.

United States Title Match: A.J. Styles (c) vs. Baron Corbin (vs. Tye Dillinger)

My prediction: Corbin via pin
Result: Corbin via pin

This was actually a really well-crafted match. During the pre-show, Dillinger chatted his way into the match after showing he beat Corbin on Smackdown, adding some last-minute excitement. Then for the finish, Styles hit his finisher on Dillinger but Corbin shoved him off and stole the pinfall. It worked out well for everyone.

And now that Styles lost his rematch on Smackdown, he can get out of the U.S. Title picture and into the WWE championship scene.

WWE Championship Match: Jinder Mahal (c) vs. Shinsuke Nakamura

My prediction: Nakamura via pin
Result: Mahal via pin

Mahal was about a C- in this match, which is considerably better than he's been in all of his other matches. It still wasn't good, but it was a bit better than usual. They probably could've afforded to drag out the ending a little more; if the Kinshasa is supposed to be a true finisher, an extra four seconds for Charles Robinson to get back in the ring shouldn't be the difference between a pin or a fail.

Anywho, overall the match was fine, probably bottom three on the night though, which isn't what you want out of your premier title. Hopefully something good is coming.

Hell in a Cell Match: Kevin Owens vs. Shane McMahon

My prediction: Owens via pin
Result: Owens via pin

Remember how I said my expectations were high for this match? Well, consider them met. Owens is such a great, animated competitor, his matches always seem to have so much meaning for his character.

The whole sequence where he sets Shane up on the table and tries to psyche himself up to jump off the cell onto him was just brilliant. Then when Shane climbed the cage and they executed a bunch of moves on top of the cell, even though they were on the same section and you knew it wouldn't break, there was always the worry that something would go horribly wrong. It was well-executed drama.

Then, finally, FINALLY, they had a PPV match end with some questions about what's going to happen next. The insertion of Sami Zayn to save Owens and then plop him on top of Shane for the win was a great way to refresh Sami's character and generate buzz for Smackdown.

Overall: 6/8 (75% correct)

Even though this PPV was fairly predictable (and really any non-mark should've gotten Roode and Mahal correct), it was immensely entertaining. Great matches, good story progression, good setups for future feuds, it was all there. It's no coincidence that the better brand seems to be the one with Kevin Owens on it. The man is just incredible at his job. And A.J. Styles is probably the best in-ring wrestler in the company.

RAW has The Shield again. So...I guess that's cool.

Good luck at TLC.

Saturday, October 7, 2017

WWE Hell in a Cell 2017 Predictions

EDIT: I completely forgot Corbin/Styles when I wrote this initially. Added it below.

First off, I think Hell in a Cell is a terrible name for a pay-per-view. I don't think the match stands out as so different from a regular steel cage match that you need to name the event for it (unlike Royal Rumble or Elimination Chamber), and now that we're into having more than one Hell in a Cell matches in a given card, it's not even describing the main event.

Also, in general, I'm not really into the death-defying leaps that typically "make" a Hell in a Cell match, so I could really just do without the match type altogether.

But, this is what we've got, so this is what we'll predict.

Chad Gable and Shelton Benjamin vs. The Hype Bros

The problem with this is that it's most likely just incredibly predictable. I assume that the Hype Bros will lose, probably as a result of some mistake Mojo Rawley makes, and that Zack Ryder will turn heel on him, and ho hum boring next match please.

In a perfect world, the Hype Bros would actually win the match as a result of Gable turning on Shelton Benjamin for the sole reason of, "You're not Jason Jordan, you could never be Jason Jordan! I AM THE AMERICAN ALPHA!" That'd be cool, and it would preserve one of a short list of tag teams that have joint names.

But, I can't predict that. I predict disappointment.

Winner: Gable and Benjamin via pin

Randy Orton vs. Rusev

You can't convince me that Randy Orton was willing to do the job to Jinder Mahal three times in a row without some guarantees that he was going to win at least his next couple feuds. This is one of those feuds. Rusev is the guy who should have gotten Jinder's push, but alas, he's from Bulgaria and Jinder is from India. It's a numbers game...because apparently according to the WWE writing staff, good characters and storylines are less likely to sell the Network than "Hey that guy is from where I'm from!"



Smackdown Tag Team Championship Match in Hell in a Cell: The New Day (c) vs. The Usos

It's been a pretty good feud, and their matches have actually been really, really good. But all good things must come to an end, so this match has to end in a way that sets up the future for the tag team titles. That means the heels have to win.

The only other tag teams that even exist on Smackdown are all faces, at least currently. You've got The Hype Bros (who I expect to not exist after this PPV), Gable and Benjamin (the likely next opponent for The Usos), and Breezango (an outside shot at the next title feud, or more likely to feud with whomever has been destroying their locker room/office, probably NXT's Authors of Pain). Regardless of who's next, they're all faces, which means the heels have to have the titles.

Or you put The Ascension into a tag team title feud. It would be funny to watch The New Day make fun of them for a month, but that'd be a short ass feud, and you'd be back to square one in a month.

Winner: The Usos via pin

Smackdown Women's Championship: Natalya (c) vs. Charlotte

Initially I went into a diatribe about the problems I have with the women's division in WWE, but it got way out of hand. Maybe an article for another time.

I think Charlotte should be the champion, but that would translate to an awfully short title reign for Natalya. Is it possible this is the first of two or three matches, culminating in a Charlotte victory? Perhaps. But I know Charlotte should win the title, so I'm not going to pick against that happening ASAP.

Winner: Charlotte via submission

Dolph Ziggler vs. Bobby Roode

I go back and forth here. Ziggler really deserves to win a feud here one of these days. He's charismatic, an incredible performer, and he's put over plenty of guys of late. But on the other side of the coin, bringing up Bobby Roode from NXT (where he was absolutely electric) to have him lose his first pay-per-view match seems an odd choice.

In the end, I think Roode as a face can survive a loss, especially some heel-ish loss like a foreign object. Ziggler coming to the ring as The Mountie with the shock stick would be hilarious and give them an easy weapon to use. Heck, maybe he could even get Jimmy Hart to manage him in a one-off.

Winner: Ziggler via pin (dirty)

United States Title Match: A.J. Styles (c) vs. Baron Corbin

I think we're supposed to think of this as a match that Styles should win because he's a better wrestler. He is a better wrestler, but that's why he should lose it. Get him out of the US title picture and into the WWE title picture.

One of the hallmark moments of the Money in the Bank match this year was the staredown between Nakamura and Styles. As you'll read below, I think Nakamura will win the WWE title on Sunday, and there's no reason to wait for Nakamura/Styles. Set it up for Survivor Series. They could probably do a 3-4 match run all the way up to Wrestlemania, and we'd eat it up. Do it.

I'll mention just for posterity that Baron Corbin is Styles' opponent.

Winner: Corbin via pin

WWE Championship Match: Jinder Mahal (c) vs. Shinsuke Nakamura

Lord in heaven.

I gotta tell you, I find Jinder Mahal incredibly boring to watch wrestle. He's stiff in a bad way, strong in a bad way, and he can't sell. Shinsuke is basically the opposite on all counts. I would be delighted to watch Nakamura take down Mahal and win the title on Sunday, but I just can't figure out a reason why you wouldn't have that happen at SummerSlam if you wanted it to happen.

Oh wait. The WWE thinks they're smarter than anyone else. I'm sure some idiot in a meeting somewhere said, "Let's not waste Nakamura winning the title at SummerSlam, where we're already gonna have Seth and Dean win. Let's save it for Hell in a Cell.

It's stupid, and I 100% believe it's what's going to happen.

Winner: Nakamura via pin

Hell in a Cell Match: Kevin Owens vs. Shane McMahon

I have to admit, my expectations are high for this match. As I said before, I'm not a big fan of the whole high spot style, and Hell in a Cell is purely a high spot style match. But Owens and Shane are so good at executing a story in the ring, so good at putting on a great match, just so good at wrestling that I'm expecting a really fun, really brutal, really exciting match.

I'm also not certain how the story advances from here. Obviously this will not be the end of the saga, so the match could go either way. I've heard theories that Triple H will interfere on one side or the other, or the Undertaker, or Sami Zayn, or Daniel Bryan, or one of the other McMahons (Vince or Stephanie, Linda obviously is busy being part of Donald Trump's cabinet).

In the end, my general policy is to pick the guy who benefits most from going over, so I'm going with Owens. You don't want Owens to lose clean to Shane, so if he does end up losing, it has to be with some kind of interference. If Shane wins clean, it'll just be another sign that WWE is clueless on what to do with KO, when he could be the next Triple H. Seriously, he's that good.

Winner: Owens via pin

Monday, October 2, 2017

Is Carlos Beltran a Hall of Famer?

In the spirit of revival, as I do my best to bring the blog back to relative activity, I'm bringing back a small feature I did that I like to call, "Is He a Hall of Famer?" It was started by Other Joe, as he posited that Jorge Posada was not deserving of a place in Cooperstown.

The question was brought up by a Twitter follow of mine, Josh Reese, who works in Houston sports:

The reaction among his comments was overwhelmingly in favor of Beltran's status as a surefire future Hall of Famer. My initial reaction was that he's a good player, but not ultimately destined for the Hall. Like any good baseball question, though, this is the kind of thing we figure out with statistics.

Arguments in Favor

Beltran's career triple crown numbers are...solid. He has a career batting average of .279 with 2,724 hits, 435 HR, and 1,587 RBI. The numbers are eerily similar to HOFer Andre Dawson (.279, 2,774 438, and 1,591). Obviously the numbers don't cross the magic thresholds of 3,000 hits and 500 HR (neither of which I expect Beltran to surpass before retirement), but they're very good.

He also raised his game during the playoffs, upping his average to .323 across 55 postseason games and mashing 16 home runs, including 8 bombs in two series with the Astros in 2004.

Beltran has been a big-time run producer, notching seven seasons of at least 100 runs and eight seasons of at least 100 RBI. Again, very good numbers.

Arguments Against

Of course, the Hall of Fame isn't for players who are "very good." It's for the ultimate elite in baseball history. Andre Dawson's numbers were accumulated in a much weaker offensive era, a period when baseball went from 1978 through 1989 without anyone hitting 50 home runs. During Beltran's career, 22 different seasons of 50+ home runs have been recorded.

Also worth noting is that the Hall of Fame, historically, has been meant to reflect the players who were at the top of the game during their careers. The players who most frequently are elected to the Hall of Fame are those who have league-leading statistical seasons, MVP seasons, Cy Young seasons, etc.

Albert Pujols is a great example. He'll undoubtedly be a Hall of Famer, and probably a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He finished first in MVP voting three times, and four other times he finished second or third. He led the league in HR twice, R five times, SLG three times, and a number of other top finishes. Beltran has led the league games played. He did win Rookie of the Year, which puts him in such elite company as Raul Mondesi, of embezzlement fame.

Tying It All Together

In the end, the argument usually ends up somewhere in between. This time, we've got a pretty fair comparable player we can use to determine what we should think about Beltran: Gary Sheffield. Sheffield came into the league a little bit earlier, but his playing prime was right around when Beltran's was. He won a single batting title, but overall shared Beltran's lack for individual accolades. He generated impressive power numbers during a period when everybody was generating impressive power numbers.

His final tallies come in at a .292 batting average, 2,689 hits, 509 home runs, and 1,676 runs batted in. I think you can fairly compare the two players, and I think the final verdict is going to be that Sheffield, while a very good player, is not a Hall of Famer. He picked up just 13% of the vote last year, in his 3rd year on the ballot. I don't expect he'll get anywhere near the late surge that Tim Raines or Bert Blyleven got. In the end, he'll likely be left on the outside looking in, as a member of the Hall of Really Good.

That's my call for Beltran as well.

Verdict: Not a Hall of Famer

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