The Baseball Story of Dale Murphy / Is Dale Murphy a Hall of Famer?

This article was founded in the following conversational sequence between myself and Other Joe:

Me: So you got any suggestions for people for me to look at as my next topic for either "The Baseball Story of..." or "Is He a Hall of Famer?"
Other Joe: Dale Murphy.
Me: Is Dale Murphy already a Hall of Famer?
Other Joe: Sounds like you have an article to write.

So I started looking into Dale Murphy (not already a Hall of Famer, by the way). And as I delved into his history, his stats, his awards, I became really uncertain as to whether or not he was legitimately a Hall of Famer.

My decision became that I'm going to write this article, not knowing where I'm headed at the end, and try to be open to whatever result to which my writing brings me. And because I want to get the whole picture, this is going to be a combination of an abbreviated version of "The Baseball Story of Dale Murphy" and "Is Dale Murphy a Hall of Famer?" You get like 1.5 articles for the price of one. Which is still nothing, but hey, the price is right either way.

Early Days

Dale Murphy was drafted by the Braves 5th overall in 1974, and was a September call-up in 1976 and 1977. He acquitted himself nicely in his second September (.316-2-14), and managed full-time at-bats for Atlanta in 1978, going .226 with 23 homers and 79 RBI. He also led the league in strikeouts with 145, the first of three different times pacing the league in that category.

From 1979-81, he'd have his share of ups and downs, batting anywhere from 2nd to 7th as he would average .270-22-65 per year. He'd settled in as a solid bat for the Braves, but was hardly a potential HOFer.

A Monster Stretch

From 1982-1985, Murphy was arguably the most exciting hitter in baseball. He played in every game for the Braves all four of those years, and earned MVP awards in 1982 and 1983. His average season was as follows: .296 batting average, 114 runs scored, 36 home runs, and 110 RBI. And remember, this is in an era when baseball went without a 50 HR hitter for twenty years.

Murphy picked up a bunch of that notable "black ink," the kind of stuff that would catch your attention on the back of a baseball card. He led the league in HR twice, RBI twice, SLG twice, and R, BB, and SO once each.

He had a down year in 1986, but bounced right back in '87 with a career-high 44 home runs as well as another season of 105+ runs and RBI. He finished 11th in the MVP voting with the Braves languishing towards the bottom of the standings.

Vanishing from Relevance

That was pretty much the end of his reign of terror, though. His free-swinging ways started to get the best of him, as he piled up 125+ strikeouts in each of his next three seasons, slipping back into the 6-hole all-or-nothing hitter he had been at the beginning of his career. He joined the Colorado Rockies for their inaugural season, but only managed 49 plate appearances, and didn't make much of them when he got them, hitting .143 with one double being his only extra-base hit. He played his last game in May of 1993.

Is Dale Murphy a Hall of Famer?

So, time for some comparables, right? That's how we judge people most effectively, against other people. Two people who come to mind pretty quickly are a pair of guys who also played for the Rockies, but with a lot more flourish.

Andres Galarraga was a solid middle-of-the-order hitter for the Expos in the late 80s and early 90s, though he shared Murphy's penchant for swinging and missing; he led the NL in strikeouts for three consecutive seasons from 1988 to 1990. He really took off after joining the Rockies in 1993, batting a scorching .370 in their inaugural season. He followed that with five years that matched Murphy's relative mastery, averaging a .305-102-39-120 line.

But the whole league was trending upwards, and he only finished as high as sixth in MVP voting. Let's try another guy, a pitcher this time.

Tim Lincecum had a pair of Cy Young awards in his second and third seasons, but trailed off mightily in the second half of his career. He reached the same heights as Murphy, though he had more team success and less longevity.

What's the Verdict?

I think Dale Murphy falls just behind Juan Gonzalez in my assessment of his Hall of Fame credentials. While Gonzalez may very well have been a beneficiary of illegal supplements, he has always denied that, and no legitimate proof has ever been produced to indicate decisively otherwise. And his production, particularly during his prime, was exceptional. He averaged .302-36-116 for ten years from 1992-2001, and earned a pair of MVP trophies himself. His lows were higher than Murphy's, and he had a longer, more productive career.

And all of that considered, I think Gonzalez (and as a result Murphy) falls short of the Hall of Fame.

While Gonzalez and Murphy had great years, and Gonzalez even had a fairly prolific 10-year stretch, baseball has always been a game about longevity. Cal Ripken Jr. is one of the legends of the game because he played every day for years and years and years. The big numbers in people's minds when they consider players for the Hall of Fame aren't 200 hits or 300 strikeouts or even 60, 61, or 70 home runs. The big numbers are 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, 300 wins. Longevity matters.

Hall of Fame status should be reserved for those players who embody what we love most about baseball, not just the highlights, but the grind.

Hank Aaron never hit 50 home runs in a single season, but he's lauded as perhaps the greatest home run hitter of all time, because he did it every year for many, many years.

Ted Williams is revered not just for hitting .406 in the third season of his career, but for somehow battering 521 home runs during a career that gave up perhaps its three best years to fighting World War II.

That's not to say that you can't be Joe DiMaggio and do something no one has ever done like hit in 56 consecutive games to solidify your spot in Cooperstown. But you have to already be close, and while Murphy and Lincecum Gonzo had a couple of MVP (or Cy Young) seasons, none of them has the "never-been-done-before" nature to it. Plenty of guys have won MVPs.

Wrap-Up

So anyways, that's the whole story about Dale Murphy. It was an interesting little investigation, though I wish I'd come back with a positive result. I feel like this whole series is becoming, "Why Doesn't XYZ Belong In the Hall of Fame?" Ah well, I'm sure there'll be an ebb and flow to it, as there is to all things.

Best Baltimore Orioles Team of My Time

The Baltimore Orioles are my favorite baseball team. For a long time, they were my favorite team in all of sports, as baseball was my favorite sport. Over the past ten years or so, hockey and the Washington Capitals have supplanted baseball and the Orioles, respectively, but both sit right there at number two. As a result, I have a pretty long memory of Orioles players, and opinions on most of them.

Historically, when I've debated the "best XYZ ever," the standard has been to span all of history in order to find potential selections. Best home run hitter? Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron were always in the mix. Best basketball center? Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain find their ways into most lists. And deservedly so; all of those players had remarkable careers.

The thing is, I never saw them play. So I can reflect on their statistics and read articles about them and hear anecdotes about how dominant they were, but those aren't my stories. I have no firsthand experience with their play. And the reality is, sports are all about our personal connections to the games. I can talk all day and night about how good Walter Payton and Bobby Hull were, but there won't be any mustard behind it. Just as, if my nephew ever tries to talk about Frank Thomas or Larry Bird, there won't be any personal nature to it.

Therefore, what I like doing is proposing not to talk about the greatest XYZ of all-time, but to talk about the greatest XYZ of MY time. So, in a sort of tandem effort to go along with my recent podcast about the Orioles in 2016, I'm going to present for you the greatest Orioles team of my time, position-by-position. Well, most positions. I'm not going to try to rack my brain for the best long reliever of the past 30 years...even though it's obviously Rodrigo Lopez.

Here we go.

Catcher - Chris Hoiles
Hoiles was a middle-of-the-lineup masher for some good teams and some bad teams, all of them Orioles teams. He spent his entire ten-year career in Baltimore, and his 162-game average was 27 homers and 81 RBI. While he wasn't exceptional, he was a steady force for the Orioles for years and years.

First Base - Chris Davis
This choice was between Davis and Rafael Palmeiro. I went with Davis because, while Palmeiro was solid and productive, he was never the most important part of the team. Since 2012, Davis' bat has been crucial to the team's vault back into competitiveness. And while the metrics don't seem to bear it out, Davis' defense at first base has been surprisingly solid.

Second Base - Brian Roberts
I started coming up with this list of players while I was without Internet access for a week (yes, it was utterly miserable). After coming up with a starter list, I spoke with some friends and checked online to see who I was forgetting, and Roberts was the first of those guys. He's the Orioles' all-time leader in games played at second base, and he was a fixture at the top of Baltimore's lineup for the better part a decade. He might be an all-time Oriole; he's definitely the best 2B of my time.

Third Base - Melvin Mora
There's a case to be made for Manny Machado, even this early in his career, but as of today, Melvin Mora is my pick. He came over from the Mets in the Mike Bordick trade, and started out a super-utility player. After a couple years of filling in as needed, Mora developed into Mr. Reliable for the O's at third. He was a steady bat, contributing heavily to some of those competitive-but-still-not-very-good teams in the mid-2000s.

Shortstop - Cal Ripken, Jr.
I will not explain this. If you don't know why, I can't help you.

Left Field - Brady Anderson
Brady Anderson was a big part of the Orioles before I ever started paying attention to statistics, so it was kind of interesting to go back and look at his actual performance. One conspicuous aspect of Anderson's play is that he had a career on-base-percentage of .362. That's really, really good.

We'll always remember him as one of the more obvious beneficiaries of performance-enhancers (his 50 HR in 1996 were symptomatic of a culture of abuse), but the truth is that he was just a really great player for the Orioles. The only nuance was whether to pick him in left field or center field; I chose left field because center field had a better alternative.

Center Field - Adam Jones
The O's pulled off a pretty big theft in acquiring Jones, Chris Tillman, and George Sherrill for Erik Bedard in 2008. Bedard was a very good pitcher at the time (see below), but Jones and Tillman were both highly-touted prospects, and Sherrill was a serviceable bullpen arm. While Tillman's progress has been slow, Jones almost immediately became central to the Orioles' lineup. Jones's free-swinging ways are still a bit frustrating to watch, but his performance over the years more than makes up for the depressed on-base numbers.

Right Field - Nick Markakis
Markakis is a perfect example of a guy who shines on this type of list, but would never get consideration on an all-time list. He's a very good fielder and a high on-base guy, which slotted him in the leadoff spot for a good chunk of his time in Baltimore. He never produced at a high enough level to merit serious consideration for end-of-season awards, or even really as an All-Star, but he's one of the locals' favorites, and probably will be for years to come.

Starting Pitcher 1 - Mike Mussina
Starting Pitcher 2 - Erik Bedard
Starting Pitcher 3 - Wei-Yin Chen
Starting Pitcher 4 - Sidney Ponson
Starting Pitcher 5 - Scott Erickson
I sort of knew this before I started this exercise, but the Orioles' pitching has been pretty bad for a long time. Looking at that list up there, you're not finding many happy tales. Mussina is obviously the exception, a borderline Hall-of-Famer who won a ton of games for the Orioles and Yankees. After him, though, it gets pretty slim.

Bedard was solid for three years and spectacular for one. Chen was the most reliable pitcher on two playoff teams, so he gets that #3 nod. And Ponson and Erickson were both unexciting workhorses, the kind of pitcher the Orioles seem to target (welcome to the team, Yovani Gallardo!). If you want to talk about the Orioles, there's no need to mention much about the starting pitching.

Right-handed Reliever - Darren O'Day
Left-handed Reliever - B.J. Ryan
Closer - Gregg Olson
Despite their troubles in the starting rotation, the Orioles have actually had a fair share of dominant relievers. O'Day has had an ERA under 2.00 with the O's, with over a strikeout per inning. B.J. Ryan boasted incredible strikeout rates during his time with the O's. And Gregg Olson is the team's all-time leader in saves with 160. Perhaps that's why the O's have mostly invested in innings-eaters for their rotation; just get to the seventh and we're in good shape.

The Orioles of my lifetime don't boast many great players. Ripken was obviously huge, and Mussina could get some HOF votes (though I doubt enough to get in). But it's no surprise that they've had to scrap and claw for their few playoff opportunities in recent years. Hopefully Machado is ushering in a new era of competition for the O's...and let's keep snagging those ace relievers.

Fantasy Baseball Categories: New School vs. Old School

I've been playing fantasy baseball for something like twenty years. For about half that time, I've pondered the idea of whether or not on-base-percentage is a superior fantasy statistic to batting average. And even after a decade, I'm still not sure.

Obviously, on-base percentage captures a more complete picture of batters' plate appearances. And as Moneyball taught us, reaching base and avoiding an out is almost as valuable as actually making contact and getting a hit. So shouldn't your fantasy team be rewarded for that?

Well, maybe.

The most important factor in determining whether or not you should use a category for your fantasy league is not how well it reflects the level of a player's contribution towards his team's success. While you do generally want the best players in baseball to be the most valuable players in your fantasy league, you don't necessarily need them to line up perfectly. I'm sure that OPS+ and FIP and the dozens of other new statistics offer a new numerical method to determine the effectiveness of players in various circumstances. But that statistical fidelity doesn't satisfy the most crucial factor in competing against friends or co-workers in fantasy baseball.

Far more important is that the game is fun to play.

The best example of this is the use of pitcher wins as a category. I have an owner in my main league who's asked me multiple times if we should swap out wins and replace them with quality starts (not demanded mind you, just asked). His reasoning was that a pitcher could pitch poorly but still pick up a win. In this regard, pitchers on strong offensive teams get a value bump, and pitchers on weak teams leak a little value. Additionally, relief pitchers get completely shut out of the "quality starts" category, while they can vulture a win from time to time. His position was that quality starts would be a better representation of the "essence" of what a win should mean: a strong outing by a starting pitcher.

Only problem is, that's not what a win is. A win is when a pitcher satisfies the rules that dictate when a pitcher gets credit for a win. The nuances of those rules are part of what make fantasy baseball exciting. When you need one win and you've got no starting pitchers left, but Tony Watson just entered a tie game in the 8th, you've got a shot. That win is fucking ALIVE.

Anybody who's a football fan knows that those nuances are what make the game interesting. Every time there's a review on possession, or a question about an out-of-bounds play, or clock management issues, football fans go nuts. They talk and talk and talk about those nuances. Terms like "forward progress" and "football move" come into play, and everybody becomes a review official. Nuances are what make everyone feel like their team's got a chance, and those chances are what you would lose if you switched out wins for quality starts.

In fantasy baseball, the standard 5x5 categories create a lot of varied value from a lot of different players. I have a friend who plays in an 8x8 league that uses hits, batting average, and on-base percentage. Well guess what? The guys who get a lot of hits also have high batting averages and high on-base percentages. So everybody's looking at the same guys, because they register in six of the eight categories.

That's not interesting.

Interesting is making a choice between an AVG + SB guy or a HR + RBI guy, based on other factors like fielding position, injury history, your roster makeup, category depth, etc. The nuances that separate one player from another are what make fantasy baseball exciting and interesting.

If you're hoping to run a simulation, there are plenty of digital options for that. I got a huge kick out of player MLB Front Office Manager (despite its scathing reviews). My cousin and I used to play in simulation leagues using the All-Star Baseball games of the late 90's. And with the current age of PC gaming, there are dozens of well-designed options available.

But if you're playing fantasy baseball, you're looking at a different kind of experience. You want to be able to watch real games happen in real time, hoping for certain outcomes. You want to be able to rejoice at home runs and strikeouts. You want to check your lineup every day to see what happened, and how you might be able to do better tomorrow.

When you're considering what sort of statistical categories to use, I strongly recommend that you focus on those fun moments of watching GameCenter, checking box scores, and exulting or lamenting with each batter. A little simplicity will go a long way.

2016 Salary Keeper Machinations - Part 2

Click here to look at Part 1, where I discuss the rules of the league as well as my hitters.

Here we go with Part 2. One thing to note: this league uses non-specific pitching slots. The only difference between starting pitchers and relievers is the stats they produce. I can play up to 10 total pitchers, in any combination of starters and relievers.

PITCHERS

Jose Quintana - $11, C
I took a chance on Quintana in a pre-season trade last year. He wasn't terrible value at $6, but now that he's $11, he's definitely not on my keeper list. Plan: Release into draft.

Mike Fiers - $1, B
Fiers was actually in the same trade as Quintana, but I released him during the season, then re-acquired him off free agency for a dollar. He had a lot of ups and downs, but for $1, I'll probably take a flier. Plan: Keep if there's room.

Drew Pomeranz - $1, B
Late in the season, when I realized my best shot at getting enough points to reach 2nd place was with saves, I grabbed every closer I could. Pomeranz got a couple shots at saves late in the year, which was enough for me to go for him. But in 2016 as a back-end starter, even $1 is too much to pay. Plan: Release into draft.

Wade Davis - $6, C
After keeping Davis for $1 last year, I expected to let him go after 2015. But now he figures to be the closer all year for Kansas City, and $6 for a closer with excellent peripherals is a steal. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.

Kenley Jansen - $11, B
Jansen is probably my toughest call among pitchers. His value is certainly high, as a high-end closer. But $11 is a goodly sum. He'd probably cost $15-$18 in the draft, so I think I'll keep him, but he'll be on my trading block. Plan: Keep or trade.

Kevin Jepsen - $21, B
Jepsen was a fill-in closer who pitched well last year, but all that free agent budget I spent on him brought his contract to an ungodly number. Might pay $1 for him in the draft, but also might not. Plan: Release into draft.

A.J. Ramos - $1, B
Easy keep, one dollar for a closer is great value. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.

Shawn Tolleson - $1, B
As I said, one dollar for a closer is great value. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.

Tony Watson - $1, B
I kept Watson last year for $1 as a filler for my pitching staff. I dropped him during the season and reacquired him for $1 again, so I'm looking at a similar player situation. But my team is stronger this year than it was last year. Plan: Keep if there's room.

Joaquin Benoit - $1, B
Benoit is basically Watson except older, with a slightly higher chance of getting a few saves. So, same category. Plan: Keep if there's room.

PITCHERS - MINOR LEAGUES

Jose Berrios
Berrios is a strikeout pitcher who is going to be in spring training this year, with a chance to make the team out of spring. He's got tons of upside, and I'm definitely looking forward to seeing what he can do.

Lucas Giolito
Giolito was kept going into last season by another team, but they found themselves in a roster crunch and waived him, making him available for the midseason minor league draft. I scooped him up, and he immediately became and still is my best starting pitcher asset, even if he doesn't pitch in the majors in 2016.

Henry Owens
Owens was the only minor-leaguer on the team when I took over last offseason. He costs me nothing to keep, so I'll keep him, but he gave up 7 runs on three separate occasions. I'm not optimistic.

Jameson Taillon
Taillon was a big time Pirates pitching prospect, but he's undergone two big surgeries in two years, including Tommy John in 2014. We won't know much until he starts pitching again, but that should happen sooner than later.

KEEPER PLANS 

Now that I've gone through all of my players and given each of them a "plan," it's time to start sorting out what we might actually do this season. Here are all the players I listed as possible keepers, sorted under their various designations.

Locked in as a keeper
Manny Machado, 3B - $21
Mookie Betts, OF - $10
Shin-Soo Choo, OF - $1
Wade Davis, P - $6
A.J. Ramos, P - $1
Shawn Tolleson, P - $1

Keep as long as he doesn't suffer injury setbacks
Jung Ho Kang, 3B/SS - $1

Keep or trade
Alex Rodriguez, U - $2
Kenley Jansen, P - $11

Keep if there's money
Hunter Pence, OF - $15

Keep if there's room
Chris Colabello, 1B/OF - $1
Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B - $2
Mike Fiers, P - $1
Tony Watson, P - $1
Joaquin Benoit, P - $1

Just in looking at this list, I feel like I need to put out some trade feelers. I think all of these guys have value, not to mention my eight minor league keepers. I should have enough salary space to take on an expensive and high-quality keeper hitter, so that'll be my target.

Based on my (lack of) starting pitching, I think I might be looking at another year of riding relievers and hoping to finish 3rd, waiting for my prospects to blossom into something. Obviously the draft will dictate a lot of that, with who's available and how expensive they are. But I've already got a base of at least three closers, with an option for a fourth in Jansen. It doesn't make sense to just get 2-3 solid SPs, because they won't rack up enough wins to make a difference.

If, however, the trade market happens to have some appealing starting pitchers at reasonable prices, maybe I'll head down that road.

So this is where I am right now. As I get closer to the keeper deadline, and as I make transactions, I'll post updates.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."

-Rogers Hornsby

2016 Salary Keeper Machinations - Part 1

I'm in a salary-based fantasy baseball keeper league that is probably my most fun fantasy league right now. I have other leagues with more friends, but the framework of how this league is set up really piques my interest.

Last season I finished in third place, which paid for my entry into this year's league. The league just opened up, so I'm starting to look at my options for this coming season. I like writing, and I like talking about this league, so I'm going to post my whole roster with relevant contract information, and give my thoughts about each player. If you have any input, I'm happy to hear it.

Here are some of the basic rules to help you understand how the league works.

The league is run through CBS, and uses their position eligibility rules. The scoring is 5x5 rotisserie with on-base percentage instead of batting average. There are 12 teams in the league.

During the auction draft, players are put into type A contracts at their sale price. After the first season, you can keep any player on an A contract for the same price, moving them to a B contract. After that season, you can keep players on B contracts by paying $5 more and moving them to a C contract. Players on C contracts cannot be kept.

Each team gets $280 of salary. Each team can keep up to 10 A, B, or C keepers, and up to $100 of salary. There are also minor league contracts, but they don't suffer any limitations, so they'll just be an afterthought here. I'll mention who I've got on minor league deals, but only so you have a full picture of my team.

Here we go. The players will be listed with their position eligibility and their contract status if I choose to keep them (players who just finished C-contract seasons have already been removed from my team).

*** indicates player has multiple position eligibility

HITTERS

John Jaso, C - $6, B
Jaso was a spot-filler for me towards the end of the season. He did a fine job of posting mediocre stats to close out my run, but he's barely worth a roster spot. Plan: Release into draft.

Carlos Santana, 1B - $30, BSantana was one of a few "high OBP" targets in my first draft. He was also 3B eligible, increasing his value. But his bat was limp, and he's just a 1B now. Plan: Release into draft.

***Chris Colabello, 1B/OF - $1, B
Colabello had an insane BABIP, so it's fair to expect that he won't be hitting .321 again. But if he hits .275 with 20 HR, $1 is a reasonable price. I've also noticed that position flexibility is pretty useful, even if it's these two positions. Plan: Keep if there's room.

Robinson Cano, 2B - $35, B
Cano was a guy in that second tier that I'd hoped to capitalize on: strong, reliable players who wouldn't cost the $50-$60 that a guy like McCutchen or Goldschmidt would cost. Well, it turned out Cano was a real disappointment. Maybe he'll bounce back. I might end up with him on my team. But not at this price. Plan: Release into draft.

***Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B - $2, B
Forsythe is a curious case. He's projected to hit about .260 with 17 HR and 6 SB, making him the 12th-rated 2B. But that means he's a started in this league (we use MI spots as well). As long as he gets playing time, he should be fine. Using one spot out of ten might be too much for him, though. Plan: Keep if there's room.

Manny Machado, 3B - $21, B
Don't need to waste brain cells on this one. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.

***Jung Ho Kang, 3B/SS - $1, B
The only hesitation I have about Kang is that he was on the shelf to end the season last year. But if he's healthy, he's more valuable than Forsythe. He's expected to return in April; that timetable works for me. Plan: Keep as long as he doesn't suffer injury setbacks.

Mookie Betts, OF - $10, C
Betts was one of a short list of holdovers from the original team I picked up before the 2015 season. He really came into his own last year, which is nice, except that this is the last year I can keep him. Ah well, nothing lasts forever. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.

Hunter Pence, OF - $15, B
Pence is a rough decision. After a lifetime of durability, he muddled through injuries all year in 2015. Despite that, his pace would've put him at 27 HR, 120 RBI, and 90 R. If he's healthy, $15 is a good price, but it's a fair chunk to spend. Plan: Keep if there's money.

Kevin Kiermaier, OF - $6, B
Kiermaier is a nice player, but $6 is too much for a guy whose claim to (minimal) fame is solid defense. Plan: Release into draft.

Jayson Werth, OF - $9, B
Werth is a 36-year-old player coming off of a pretty bad year. Maybe he bounces back a little bit, but no way am I spending $9 and a keeper slot on that. Plan: Release into draft.

Shin-Soo Choo, OF - $1, B
Choo was one of the brightest spots on my team. That I managed to get a top 25 outfielder for a dollar made it even more exciting. No question about this one; the price is oh so right. Plan: Locked in as a keeper.

Khris Davis, OF - $7, B
This is a guy with a lot of power upside, but his inconsistent play and marginal batting average make him a risky play. I think, at worst, he'll be available for $4-$6 in the draft, so $7 to keep him isn't worth it. Plan: Release into draft.

Evan Gattis, U - $25, C
Gattis was a decent play last year when he was catcher-eligible, but he played almost exclusively at DH in 2015, and is only utility eligible. That won't do. Plan: Release into draft.

Alex Rodriguez, U - $2, B
A-Rod is one of my most difficult decisions. He's only a DH now, and at 40, a decline is almost inevitable. He popped 33 homers last year, though, and that kind of power isn't common in today's game. At $2 he's a keeper, but I might dangle him to see if I can divest. Plan: Keep or trade.

HITTERS - MINOR LEAGUES

*** Kyle Schwarber, C/OF
Schwarber was my first mid-season minor league draftee, and so far it looks like he'll pan out fairly well. He's already projected as a top five catcher, and if he can develop further in an improving Cubs lineup, the sky's the limit. Might just be an outfielder down the line, though.

Yoan Moncada, 2B
I acquired Moncada in a trade when I thought I was out of the running in July. Our fates were intertwined from that point, where he flourished and my team jumped up the standings. He's still probably a year away from getting to the big leagues, but he's trending very nicely.

Javier Baez, 2B
I'm not real excited about Baez at this point. He seems to be kind of a quadruple-A player; too good for the minors, but lacking the plate discipline to make it in the big leagues. Hopefully he develops an eye for the strike zone this year; next year he costs money to keep, and I can't see paying for him if it's a repeat of 2015.

Rafael Devers, 3B
Devers is probably two years from producing. He's a 19-year-old Red Sox prospect, but they say he can really hit. We'll find out down the road.

Aaron Judge, OF
Judge is the Yankees' top hitting prospect, which makes him big news. But he's 6'7", and height can be a problem for hitters (see Richie Sexson). He's highly touted, but I might try to move him. The height really does scare me.


That's the end of part 1. Part 2 will go into my pitching staff (a hodgepodge of miscreants and nobodies), and take an overall look at my team's keeper options. See you then!

Favorite Past Features

I've spent some time of late looking at a variety of my previous posts. I do a lot of self-critiquing and re-reading; I find myself constantly changing old posts that nobody will probably ever read again, but they've got an apostrophe in the wrong spot, or poor word usage in another spot, and I can't let that just hang there.

I also re-read for content, and I've found a few spots that I really enjoyed re-reading, and I enjoyed writing in the first place. As I'm trying to find more topics to write about, and formats within which to write, these old posts are a good first stop. Here are a couple I really enjoyed from the past, and maybe I'll resurrect them in some form.

Is He A Keeper?

Back in the early days of the fantasy baseball keeper league, we had a lot of questions about which players were legitimate keepers, which guys were borderline, and which guys were too unreliable, too unproven, or just too unexceptional. It was a fun little mental experiment for myself to judge a player's potential upside, downside, and general value in relation to other players. It was also a way that I sort of gave my (often unsolicited) advice to my fellow owners about their players, and hashed out some of my own players as well.

The odds of this one coming back are pretty slim, as I think most of my league has caught up to (or surpassed) me as far as baseball knowledge. As a result, I'd be out of order trying to declare what other teams should do. It was a fun exercise, though, and it's a good reminder that little discussion points were a good way to churn out several medium-sized posts.

Twi-Night Doubleheader

For most of one season, I did a little weekly recap on the fantasy comings and goings of the week. Best player of the week, biggest disappointment, etc. I was so tuned in to fantasy baseball at the time, and I had a ton of downtime sitting at a computer at my job, so it was natural for me to kill time by writing about what I was paying attention to.

The Game of Thrones posts I've been doing this season are a reasonable comparison to Twi-Night Doubleheader (though much less readable for cousin Michael), in that they're weekly recaps with quick-hitter topics. I don't foresee getting back into the weekly fantasy baseball recap post game, unless it were with a partner to bounce things off of, work together, and generate fast content. If anybody's got an itch, drop me a message and we'll see what might work.

Magic Decks for Review

It's hard to say this was really a feature on the blog, since I only really got one post up for it. But the idea was that I have all these decks I've thrown together over the years that could use some tightening, some review, and some revision. And, like most intellectual exercises, crowd-sourcing can create inputs from a lot of different angles, which is important considering the sheer volume of Magic cards that exist.

That single post and its follow-up (both regarding my Landfall deck) were actually pretty useful as far as trying to put together possible ideas for how to refine the deck. So in looking back, that's something I could definitely see myself getting back to posting. I still have the decks, and I think I put most or all of them on TappedOut, so they should still be visible to make comments and offer advice. Definitely something I could see revisiting.

Mega Man Magic Set

The Mega Man Magic Set wasn't exactly a "feature," as it had a specific endpoint. Once the set was fully released, that was that, the series was concluded. That said, it generated dozens of posts, numerous comments, and a good deal of discussion, not to mention the enjoyment I had in creating the cards and writing the posts. Overall, I would rate it as one of my most successful blogging adventures.

Additionally, while I can't generate many(/any?) more posts using that particular content, there are plenty of similar types of posts I can make. Most of them will be pretty hard geeky, but that's how it goes sometimes. I like sports and I like games, and sometimes the games take the lead. Lord knows I don't feel like talking about football anytime soon.

So here are some similar ideas that I've come up with, and I'm thinking I'll try my hand at in the near future:

• Create a D&D monster from other material
• Create a Magic card from other material
• Create another Magic set, this time using a different gaming "world"
• Create, create, create...

In thinking about these ideas, I think that the most fun exercises for me are when I'm trying to be creative using other people's bases. Kind of like a fan-fiction writer, except somehow even nerdier.

Anyways, that's it for this post. Just wanted to reminisce a little about some of our brighter moments, and give you guys a little insight into what goes into developing a post or feature. Until next time!

Top Five 2015 Baseball/Fantasy Baseball Stories So Far

Baseball presents a wide variety of surprises every year; some good, some bad. But there are some stories that just blow you away, and we've had our share in the short season so far. Because baseball goes along so well with its fantasy counterpart (and because I can't help but look at every baseball story within a fantasy context), I'll include a little fantasy spin here as well, when applicable.

1. Are the Nationals actually this bad?

I mean, obviously they're not this bad. This pace would be unsustainable for a team that didn't have top-to-bottom the best rotation in baseball. But the Nationals are a team that a lot of people, including ESPN and myself, picked to win the World Series. After tonight's come-from-behind victory over the Braves, they're 8-13, tied for last in the NL East.

I still expect their rotation to bear out and to at least notch 80-85 wins, but this early stretch has shown just how foolish it was to trade Tyler Clippard. He may not be lighting it up for the A's, but the bullpen depth was already suspect, and Yunel Escobar is utterly replaceable.

Anybody still got Rafael Soriano's phone number?

2. Dee Gordon is teaching us all an important lesson.

All throughout the preseason, you couldn't take two steps without hearing someone talk about how Dee Gordon's production was incredible for a few weeks early in the season, and then just solid the rest of the way. Most fantasy players took that to mean that his production during those "down" months was the correct representation of his skillset. A few people (like myself) saw that short explosion and had dreams of Dee Gordon shaped sugarplums dancing in their heads.

But the truth is that Gordon, like every other baseball player, can't be identified as only his hills or only his valleys. He's all of them, the whole topography of his production. So while he's blasting off right now (#14 rated player in Yahoo), his final statistics for the season will probably be somewhere around where they were last year. And that works fine for me, as a Gordon owner and someone who's always hurting for steals.

3. Ace relievers always look better early in the season than they ought to.

Now, don't take this as an invitation to try to lowball me on Wade Davis, who I own in a couple of leagues. But when you look at the top rated pitchers in Yahoo (and presumably other systems), right now, way too many of them are highly productive relievers. Davis, Andrew Miller, David Robertson, Jeurys Familia, Joakim Soria, Adam Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Boxberger, and Yimi Garcia are all rated among the top 25 pitchers. That's almost 40% of the top end.

The imbalance is inherent with the system. We want relievers to be appropriately rated at the end of the season, so we want a certain number of saves out of our relief pitchers. That brings guys like Familia and Soria to the top. Wins are one of the hardest stats to accumulate, so the guys who have lucked into a couple of wins early look (statistically) like dominant starting pitchers, albeit with limited innings.

While certain guys like Davis, Miller, Robertson, and Chapman have a history of dominance, none of them should be traded for as if they're a top 15-20 pitcher.

4. Remember when we all thought the A's were crazy for trading Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie?

We were right.

5. The Orioles and White Sox are going to play in front of absolutely nobody today.

There's not any sort of fantasy spin for this story, but it's insane. Baltimore is in such a state of disarray that the audience can't be trusted to collect in close quarters and not erupt into anarchy. I'm hopeful that things will turn for the better and soon, but in the meantime, best wishes to the Orioles and to all Baltimoreans.

2015 Fantasy Baseball - First Round Busts and Busters

Every year, fantasy baseball sees several new faces at the top of drafts, and every year a couple of last year's heroes turn into this year's zeroes. It's usually difficult to predict this sort of thing, but that's absolutely not my concern. I'm going to make some wild predictions here (potentially more bold than my "bold" predictions) about this year's first round picks, and about some players who aren't in the top two rounds this year, but I foresee making the jump.

First, let's look at who actually is a first-round pick, according to Yahoo:

Yahoo's Top Twelve Players, According to O-Rank

1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
3. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers
5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
6. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
7. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
8. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
9. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
10. Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays
11. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
12. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays

Let's go player-by-player:

1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
3. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers

Barring massive injury, I think these guys are safe bets to stick around at least a few years. Transcendent talents.

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers

Cabrera is interesting, because I really think he's going to do well this year, but it's very likely that he loses 3B going into next year. Probably still a first-round pick, though. He's the best hitter the league has seen since Manny Ramirez.

5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
6. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
7. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
8. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
I expect all four of these guys to remain in the first or early second rounds, depending on their relative performances and health. Goldschmidt, Stanton, and Abreu are all high end power talent, and even though people still mistrust Gomez, he's been a power-speed guy for years now. It's time to buy in.

9. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles

Jones is a tough nut to crack. In a full season, he's almost a lock for .280-90-30-90. His speed is fading, and his plate discipline is zero (he walked just 19 times last year), but consistent power, average, and run production will always have value. I think he'll drop to the second round next year, but no farther than around 18th.

10. Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays

I hate thinking of Jose Bautista as "old" since he's two-and-a-half months younger than me, but the reality is that 34 is pretty old in baseball (maybe this is why it always seems to be sports fans who have midlife crises). If he stays healthy, he's probably got another year or two of top tier production, but his batting average dips in 2012 and 2013 give me pause.

11. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs

I don't trust Rizzo, but he's got fair pedigree. I expect him to regress a little, but still be in the ballpark of .270 and 30 HR, and at his age, that'll keep people buying. I predict other people will have him in the first round again next year, and I predict I still won't.

12. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays

Encarnacion is like his teammate Bautista in a lot of ways. They both had slow starts to their careers, and they both appear to be top-level mashers with modest batting averages. I just don't trust Encarnacion. He has the smell of Adam Dunn to me, and that means while I expect he'll still hit with power, his dropoff in other categories will be precipitous. With a history of back ailments, I think there's a reasonable chance that Edwin could slip again this year, down to a .240-.260 hitting 1B with very good pop. On your draft boards, that's somewhere between David Ortiz (48) and Chris Carter (96).

My bets for dropping out of Yahoo's top round in 2016 are #9 Adam Jones, #10 Jose Bautista, and #12 Edwin Encarnacion. The rest I expect to stick around, again, barring massive injury.

Now for the more fun part: who's taking their spots? Since I have three guys dropping from the first round, I'm going to give you three guys to take their places. And to maximize the fun(/crazy) aspect, I'll only pick people outside of the top 25.


Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers (#36)
It's extremely difficult for a starting pitcher to get into the first round of a fantasy draft. The fact that Kershaw has been securely in the first round for multiple years is pretty remarkable. I think Darvish has that kind of next-level talent. His strikeout rate is fantastic, a must-have for a first round pitcher. While last season was cut short for him because of elbow inflammation, I think he's closer to his 2013 performance at his core. That's 2.83/1.07/.194 batting-average-against, for those of you unwilling to Google the man.

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (#59)
I've never been totally wild about Joey Votto. I'm still not all the way on board with drafting guys who don't really have any speed upside; I always seem to have trouble finding steals. But in today's fantasy baseball world, batting average and run production puts you near the top of the draft. Votto has never hit lower than .297 in any season in which he played at least 100 games, and he still hits in Cincinnati, one of the better hitting ballparks out there. He may suffer from "broken heart syndrome," where people discount him because they got burned drafting him the past couple years, but I think a bounce-back is very possible, and that would put him right in the mix for the first round.

Not crazy enough for you? Alright, well how about...


Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles (#123)
If I'm being honest, I wouldn't bet much money on Machado actually breaking into the top 12 of Yahoo's O-Rank next season. That said, I think there's a ton of room for improvement here, and, just as importantly, I think the fantasy community is ready to believe in him. Machado was a top-tier prospect who's acquitted himself well in the major leagues. He's still just 22, which means there's plenty of time for him to evolve into the type of player he was projected to be. He's never been much of a speedster, but with a reasonable level of improvement, I don't think it's out of the question to see him take a 2006-Matt-Holliday-sized leap forward. A line of .310/100/30/100 is feasible, and at third base, that's first round magic.

So there you have it, my take on the first round this year and next. Stay tuned this season to see how right I was (or on the off chance I was slightly wrong, to harass me for it).

2015 Major League Baseball Bold Predictions

Everyone wants to be the guy who "just knew" something was going to happen before everyone else did. I drafted Clayton Kershaw the year before he exploded onto the scene, and I did the same with Jose Abreu last season. I'll always remember those "clever" picks (though really they were mostly lucky).

So this year, I'm going to make a bold prediction about each team, or a player on that team. Some will be bolder than others, naturally. But I'm posting this as a record for all to see, so that you may either laud my precognition or laugh at my foolishness come October.

AL East

Baltimore Orioles - Jonathan Schoop will hit 30 home runs, but he'll still have his name mispronounced regularly.
Boston Red Sox - All of the Red Sox' changes will appear to pay off from a statistical standpoint, but inexplicably won't be reflected in the win-loss columns. Boston will be out of the playoff mix by August.
New York Yankees - The Yankees will start off hot, and sometime before May 31st, there'll be a prominent story somewhere talking about how Derek Jeter was holding back the Yankees in his final years.
Tampa Bay Rays - Evan Longoria will the finest season of his career, but he won't be able to help the Rays stay out of last place.
Toronto Blue Jays - A Blue Jay will hit 50 home runs in 2015. I can't get more specific than that, but they have so much power in their lineup that someone is bound to go off.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox - Jose Abreu won't lead the team in home runs, but he will be the team's highest vote-getter for MVP.
Cleveland Indians - The Indians will be the only team in baseball to get single-digit home runs from their combined first basemen.
Detroit Tigers - Everything will go wrong this year (it's already starting with Victor Martinez's surgery), and Detroit will finish second-to-last in the AL Central.
Kansas City Royals - The Royals will hit, but the rotation will crumble like a saltine in a blender. They'll try Wade Davis in the rotation. It'll work out well, and he'll be a sexy fantasy pick next year.
Minnesota Twins - The Twins will finish last in the division, but things will look up towards the end of the season as prospects acquit themselves well.

AL West

The "California" Angels - The Angels will break through and win the West going away, and two starting pitchers will receive votes for the Cy Young award, though neither will win. They'll lose in the World Series because Huston Street will be injured.
Houston Astros - Houston's record won't be any better than they were last year, but they'll be way more fun to watch. And by that I mean their bullpen will blow thirty saves, but they'll win half of those games anyways.
Oakland Athletics - Brett Lawrie will be exactly as uninspiring as he was in Toronto, except that even fewer of his hits will leave the yard due to the spacious Oakland Coliseum. The magic will be over, and the A's will fall behind the rest of the division, for one year anyways.
Seattle Mariners - Despite the large yard, the Mariners will be one of the top home run hitting teams in the AL. Nelson Cruz will mash.
Texas Rangers - The Rangers will never get going, and Adrian Beltre will be on a different team by the end of the year.

NL East

Atlanta Braves - Freddie Freeman will hit .280 with 20 HR again. That's not the bold part, though. The bold prediction is that people will actually realize that he's simply a serviceable first baseman, and not the masher that fantasy "experts" seem to think he is.
Miami Marlins - Jose Fernandez won't pitch for the Marlins this year.
New York Mets - The Mets will have three pitchers toss 175+ strikeouts, but still won't be able to hit a lick.
Philadelphia Phillies - Despite being in obvious "rebuilding" mode, the Phillies' starting pitchers will keep them in a lot of games, and they'll be competitive for the first third of the season. Then Cliff Lee, Aaron Harang, and Carlos Ruiz will be traded, and the Phillies will be "who we thought they were."
Washington Nationals - Despite a strong lineup and one of the best starting rotations in history, the Nationals will have problems winning close games. They'll reacquire Tyler Clippard for far more than they got when they traded him away. But they'll win the World Series, so it'll be worth it.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs - Jon Lester will suck this year.
Cincinnati Reds - The wheels will fall off for Billy Hamilton, but Joey Votto will flourish again, and the Reds will compete for a Wild Card berth.
Milwaukee Brewers - Jean Segura and Ryan Braun will have bounce-back years, but the rotation isn't strong enough for the Brew Crew to be serious contenders.
Pittsburgh Pirates - Between batting position, playing time, and managerial support, Gregory Polanco will be given every opportunity to succeed...and he just won't.
St. Louis Cardinals - Jason Heyward won't have the explosion that everyone seems to think he'll have, nor will Kolten Wong evolve into much more than he was last year, but it won't matter; the Cardinals will still win the division.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks - The D'Backs starting pitchers will have the fewest total innings of any team in history, which obviously won't bode well for the season's outlook.
Colorado Rockies - The Rockies will have two 20-20 outfielders, but neither will be Carlos Gonzalez.
Los Angeles Dodgers - Kershaw and the gang will once again dominate on the mound, but without Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp, the team will struggle to score runs. No playoffs this year for the boys in blue.
San Diego Padres - Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers will all flourish in San Diego. The Padres, despite playing in massive Petco Park, will score in bunches and nab a Wild Card spot.
San Francisco Giants - Joe Panik will win the NL batting title.

Yeah, I decided to go with something memorable and bananas to finish, to give you guys an easy razz you can use anytime.

Brian Giles Deserved Better

First things first, I don't think Brian Giles is a Hall of Famer. I don't think you'd find many people who think he is. He was a really good player for about ten years on a couple of obscure teams, and he was a fantasy STUD in the old Sandbox system that rewarded players for drawing walks. He wasn't an all-time great, which is the designation that someone should have if they're getting named to the Hall of Fame.

That said, Giles was way better than Hall voters apparently think he was.

Earlier this week, the 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot results were revealed, and Brian Giles received a whopping zero votes. Among the players who received at least one vote:

• Tom Gordon, whose claim to fame is having led the league in saves once, and being a pretty good reliever sometimes;
• Troy Percival, a solid closer who pitched for the champion Angels in 2002; and
• Aaron Boone, a career .263 hitter who had that one big home run.

I would say that these guys don't sound like Giles' peers, but they're not even; they're all considered deserving of a vote by at least one Hall of Fame voter, and Giles was not.

I will grant certain factors. Giles' power peak only lasted about five years, and he played in an era with inflated power numbers across the board, so his career-high of 39 home runs doesn't play as well as it might in today's game. And he wasn't particularly fast either, notching only 109 steals over a career that spanned more than 1,800 games.

But Giles was a consistent force at the plate. In eight different seasons, his on-base percentage was .396 or higher; Giles ended two out of every five plate appearances with a positive result. His career on-base percentage is .3998, lower than only four players: Joey Votto, Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, and Joe Mauer. Those are two likely Hall of Fame caliber players (Manny and Pujols), and two guys who should find themselves at least in the conversation if their next eight years go like their last eight years went. He consistently threatened .300, hitting at least .298 in seven different seasons.

He played in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and San Diego, so his media exposure was limited, as were his postseason opportunities. And the numbers suggest he was a below-average fielder. But in a world where you just know, you just know that Kevin Youkilis is going to get a couple of HoF votes, Giles deserved better than he got.

Trade String - Bartolo Colon

Note: This post uses links from baseball-reference.com. I'm still not pleased with their advertising system, as it still punishes your entire computer if you even just keep a browser window open for too long, or try to open more than one window from the site. I just wanted to provide links to some older players, and that's more easily done through Baseball Reference than through other sites.

I've always been fascinated with trades. When I was a kid, I used to trade baseball cards, not really knowing anything about their values, just swapping this guy for that guy. I remember trading a lot of nobody players (mostly non-Orioles to get Orioles), but I also remember doing trades involving cards of Gary Sheffield, Nolan Ryan, and for some reason Gregg Jefferies.

My love of trades has continued into adulthood, moving from sports cards to fantasy players, Steam games, and whatever else I've got in my life, physical or digital. When I moved back to the area from college, I remember I traded my desk, a microwave, and a bookshelf for a PS2 console, a couple accessories, and some PS2 and N64 games. I was pleased, the other guy was pleased, it was a great experience. And my interest in bartering grew.

I've also always been interested in trades that real-life sports teams make. When I was little, I remember writing a letter to the Baltimore Orioles (I don't know if I wrote it to someone in particular), listing out a number of players I thought they should trade for. I don't know if the letter ever got mailed or read, but I don't think I ever got a response. I still believe they should've traded for Julio Franco. I'll believe that 'til the day I die.

Anyways, all of this is leading into what this new "segment" will be about: trades. The question that these posts will seek to answer is, "What did they really end up getting for _______?" Mostly, it will focus on players who were involved in large trades that sent them alone from one team to another in exchange for a variety of veterans, rookies/minor leaguers, and draft picks. The articles will delve into what those assets actually were, and, if they were subsequently traded, for whom they were traded. The idea here is that when a deal is made, you create a string connecting the involved players; these posts will follow those strings to see the "end result" of those trades.

Here's our first one.

June 27, 2002: Montreal Expos Acquire Bartolo Colon

On the morning of June 27th, the MLB-owned Montreal Expos were 40-36, and Major League Baseball was under scrutiny for its management of this league asset. There were questions abound as to whether or not this arrangement was creating an unfair situation for other teams in the league; were the Expos, without an ownership group behind them, still pursuing victories as aggressively as other teams?

Perhaps as an answer to these contentions, and perhaps in a genuine attempt to make a push for the playoffs over the summer, the Expos traded a few young prospects and Lee Stevens to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon. Were they important prospects? Well, who can know?

We can, duh, that's what this is all about. Here's the full list of players involved in the trade:

Cleveland Indians trade

• Bartolo Colon
• Tim Drew

to the Montreal Expos for

• Cliff Lee
• Brandon Phillips
• Grady Sizemore
• Lee Stevens

Oh god.

Cliff Lee was one of Cleveland's strongest starting pitchers in twenty years, going 83-48 from 2002-2009, and capturing the 2008 Cy Young award. Phillips never amounted to much for the Indians, but since being shuffled off to Cincinnati has been named to three All-Star teams, and has netted four Gold Gloves. Grady Sizemore was one of baseball's most prolific power-speed combo guys for several years, and he won a pair of Gold Gloves, although truthfully he may have been more useful as a fantasy player than a real-life player. Lee Stevens was past his prime by 2002, and didn't play in the majors beyond that season.

The problem for the Indians, of course, is that they didn't make the most of these assets. As the other Joe will constantly point out, Cleveland has a notorious history of poor player evaluations, and the fact that they couldn't find a way to get Brandon Phillips more than 12 games between 2004 and 2005 is criminal. They traded him to the Reds for a player to be named, who ended up being Jeff Stevens. If the name doesn't ring a bell, don't worry. He was a small-time reliever who didn't play in the majors until 2009...with the Cubs.

They did have four really good years with Grady Sizemore, and four-and-a-half with Cliff Lee. Sizemore suffered a variety of injuries and missed the 2012 and 2013 seasons altogether and being granted free agency by Cleveland. He signed with the Red Sox last offseason, played up and down for a couple months and was released. He caught on with the Phillies, and figures to be in a platoon or serving as a 4th outfielder for them next year.

Lee was traded along with Ben Francisco to the Phillies in a deadline deal that brought back Carlos Carrasco as well as three non-factor players (Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson. Carrasco was supposed to be the jewel of the deal, but didn't produce right away. Things are finally looking up a little bit after five years; he pitched in middle- and late-relief during the dog days of summer last year, and finished strong and back in the rotation. He's still under his rookie contract until 2018, so the Indians have some time to figure out if he's for real.

What about those 2002 Expos? They finished 83-79 and missed the playoffs. Colon went 10-4 with 3.31/1.32 averages, fine numbers, but not nearly as good as they were with the Indians prior to the trade. At the end of the season, Montreal traded Colon and minor leaguer Jorge Nunez to the White Sox for Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, and Jeff Liefer, none of whom had a noticeably positive impact on the Expos.

This was a curious case, where one of the most valuable pieces (Phillips) ended up being particularly valuable, but not for the team he was originally traded to. Still, the Indians were able to get four great years of production from Sizemore and Lee in exchange for an over-performing starting pitcher.

Endgame Winner: Cleveland Indians
(sub-winner: Cincinnati Reds)

2014 National League Awards

As usual, the National League is worse than the American League.

I'm joking mostly, but it brings up an interesting point. When I was young, and interleague play wasn't a thing, I didn't care for the NL. I didn't really like any of the teams, and when I watched the All-Star Game, I was rooting, legitimately rooting for the American League to win. Not forced rooting because MLB tied World Series home-field advantage to the game, but just deep-in-the-soul rooting. I'm sure more people watch more baseball live and on TV because of interleague play, and I'm sure some people like that the All-Star game "counts" now, but I miss those days.

Rookie of the Year
Jacob deGrom, Mets
Billy Hamilton, Reds
Kolten Wong, Cardinals

While it may have been a joke, there was a smack of truth when I said the AL was better than the NL. Our choices here are a 9-6 starting pitcher, a .250 hitter with 56 steals, and a guy who started 100 games at second base for the division-winning Cardinals.

Hamilton will probably win, but my pick is deGrom. In addition to his 9-6 record, he posted averages of 2.69/1.14 and over a strikeout an inning. His final two starts were great, notching 23 strikeouts in 13 innings. The Mets still need hitters (they batted just .239 last season), but if Matt Harvey can come back and return to his 2013 form, they might have a nice little pitching staff.

Manager of the Year
Bruce Bochy, Giants
Clint Hurdle, Pirates
Matt Williams, Nationals

Be honest. None of you thought the Pirates could do it again, especially with young slugger Pedro Alvarez taking a big step backwards. But somehow Clint Hurdle dragged this scrappy group to another wild card game, losing to the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants. Bochy and Williams did well, but those were both teams that you sort of expected to do well. Right or wrong, Hurdle gets a bump in my book for cooking with raw ingredients.

Cy Young
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Johnny Cueto, Reds
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals

Kershaw led the NL in wins, ERA, WHIP, complete games, K/BB ratio, and basically every advanced metric you can think of, and he finished 3 strikeouts behind Cueto and Stephen Strasburg for the league lead. And he did it all while missing his first five starts of the season with a muscle strain in his back. Cueto and Wainwright were great, but Kershaw was a cut above.

Most Valuable Player
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

This is an interesting call. McCutchen was extremely productive, but without the eye-popping stats that draw people in. Stanton was the NL's most prolific masher, but he was on a bad team and struck out in 1/4 of his at-bats. Kershaw was phenomenal, but he only pitched 27 times, exactly 1/6 of a full season. On top of that, I'm just overall reticent to bestow the MVP award on a pitcher.

The way I approached it was this: if you took these players off of their respective teams, how would their seasons have been affected? A Stanton-less Marlins would probably drop from 4th in the NL East to 5th. Taking Kershaw off of the Dodgers would've been rough, but they're still a really good team (especially if they stop being ridiculous and play Matt Kemp every day).

But the Pirates' whole lineup is held together by McCutchen. He led the team in hits, runs, doubles, home runs, RBI, OBP, and slugging percentage, and finished second in just about everything else (batting average, triples, steals). I think Kershaw will probably actually win, in no small part because McCutchen won the MVP last year. And he's not a wrong pick. He's just not my pick.

2014 American League Awards

As usual, I'm here to offer my opinions on the baseball awards season. However, I wanted to say something first.

This year's awards seem way more predictable overall than they've been in years past. Some gambling websites aren't even offering odds on Mike Trout winning the MVP; it's such a sure bet that there are no odds that a bookmaker could offer and still expect profit. That said, there are a couple of ones that will be fun to talk about, as always. And probably my favorite argument is right here in this post. I'll give you a clue: it starts with American League, and ends with Cy Young.

I'd also like to point out that, at least for these two posts, I won't be using links to Baseball Reference. I continue to be frustrated by their bombardment of advertisements, and I refuse to link to them, as at this point, their usability is below even Yahoo or ESPN. It saddens me, but I can't in good faith link to such a problem website.

My choice in italics.

Rookie of the Year
Jose Abreu, White Sox
Dellin Betances, Yankees
Matt Shoemaker, Angels

Abreu holds a special place in my heart as one of my better draft picks in fantasy baseball history. Interestingly, I've traded almost all of my best picks: Abreu, Clayton Kershaw, Prince Fielder. Watch out Chris Sale, you're probably next.

Anyways, Abreu was a masher all year, and just his power numbers would've warranted a Rookie of the Year victory. But on top of that, he seemed to mature before our eyes over the course of the season, pushing his batting average up from a solid .292 in the first half to a stalwart .317 at the end of the season. Betances was a great short reliever, and Shoemaker had a great season (16-4, 3.04/1.07). But Abreu came onto the scene loudly and only got louder. He's my pick.

Manager of the Year
Mike Scioscia, Angels
Buck Showalter, Orioles
Ned Yost, Royals

I can't speak to this award much, because I'm biased towards Buck and because I think Manager of the Year is one of those awards that relies heavily on the eye test. Showalter is far and away the guy I saw the most of with regards to lineup adjustments and pitching decisions, and he managed to pull a patchwork pitching staff to a runaway win of the American League East. Good enough for me.

Cy Young
Felix Hernandez, Mariners
Cory Kluber, Indians
Chris Sale, White Sox

Sale had a great two-thirds of a season, but his injury took away his ability to earn the Cy Young award in my book. So it's really a two-man race between Felix and Kluber. Felix led the league in ERA and WHIP, while Kluber had more wins and strikeouts (total and per 9 innings) than Hernandez. Both guys finished strong, both guys played for teams that nearly played the playoffs.

It's six in one hand, half a dozen in the other, but I'm going with Kluber. I still don't like the idea of giving the Cy Young to someone who gets 15-16 wins, even if it's a flawed statistic. I also like that, while the Indians were gasping for air in September, Kluber registered at least 7 innings and 104 pitches in each of his final five starts, nabbing the win in all five. When the season was on the line, Kluber did his best work. Felix was good down the stretch, but not that good.

Most Valuable Player
Michael Brantley, Indians
Victor Martinez, Tigers
Mike Trout, Angels

It's not really worth discussing this one very much. Trout is far and away the most prolific offensive player in baseball right now. Every simple or advanced statistic you want to look at, he's at the top. Martinez and Brantley are fine players who had great seasons, but Trout is a force of nature.

We'll get the baseball writers' picks next week. My National League picks will come out before that.

Rooting

I'm mostly a Washington sports fan. I root my ass off for the Capitals, I'm lamentably a Redskins fan, and the first sports ticket I ever bought was to a Bullets game. We didn't have a baseball team in the DC area when I was younger, so I took on the Baltimore Orioles, and I was totally stoked for this postseason.

That said, being a fan of my teams has been trying over the years. I became an official baseball fan in 1988, the year the Orioles set the all-time AL record for losing streaks when they opened the season 0-21. The game I went to, they actually won, which I didn't realize was a rarity that season. After the Jeffrey Maier bullcrap in 1997, my O's suffered 14 straight losing seasons. This season has already been a success, but things aren't looking great for a title run.

When the Redskins won the Super Bowl after the 1991 season, I was too young to realize it wasn't the kind of thing that happens all the time. And I don't remember watching any football games in between that Super Bowl and the previous Super Bowl, so obviously I wasn't much into sports. I think I was all about Nintendo at that point in my life (and 90% of all moments in my life since then). Since then, and particularly since Daniel Snyder purchased the team, Washington has been a black hole for football.

As I said, I liked the Bullets a lot when I was younger. I went to a few games, and was stoked when they acquired Chris Webber. I figured the combination of he and Juwan Howard was so successful in college, how could it not bring them deep into the NBA playoffs? Of course, I was wrong, but I've kept tuned in, and I'm hoping to reap the benefits of some solid seasons with John Wall, Bradley Beal, and the lot. I watch almost every NBA draft, even though I don't really know anything about college basketball anymore, just because it's a tightly packed blast of offseason roster updates.

The Capitals were a regular participant in the wide-open NHL playoffs by the time I started paying attention to hockey at all. I remember my friends Mike and Sergio assigning me teams every few days, usually in the form of, "Joe Joe Joe, what happened to your Nordiques last night?" It was enough to encourage me to catch a few games here and there. I watched each game of the Stanley Cup in 1998, which is to say I watched the Caps get pummeled by a team that was insanely, insanely better than them.

I've enjoyed their recent moments of marginal success, but the Caps' limited success seems to have brought every Penguins fan out of the woodwork. I can't wear a Caps shirt or watch a Caps game without some jag off Pens fan making some sideways (or sometimes straight-up-and-down) comment about how the Penguins are so much better. Like I'm unaware of how these teams have performed recently.

Which brings us to the meat of what I actually wanted to talk about in this post. People are fans of teams for a million different reasons. The majority of people just pick their home teams, presumably due to some combination of convenience and inborn patriotism, that desire to be proud of where you're from, and to share that feeling with friends and family. Others choose their favorite teams because of that team's success in their childhood, or a favorite player, or something as simple as an attractive uniform.

Are any of these "wrong" reasons to root for a team? Nope. Are any of these "more right" than others?

Yes.

It is more right to root for your hometown team than another team. Not insofar as you live a better life or you deserve praise, but because you're not abandoning a problem. Enduring the hardships together as a fan base gives you something to talk about with other people from your home town, and a sense of community is a good thing, even if you're a community with an experience mostly riddled with failure.

In my sports-watching adult life, I've endured as much disappointment as a fan of any city's teams, save perhaps Cleveland. While Cleveland has only three professional teams, they manage to pack a lot of despair into those three teams. And if you happen to like the Ohio hockey team (the Columbus Blue Jackets), you're not making up any ground.

Cleveland has sported a poorly run and poorly performing football team in the Browns, and since the mid-90s, the Cleveland Indians have wallowed in and around mediocrity. The Cavaliers have been to the NBA Finals, but The Decision, the departure, and the Heat winning a pair of titles have made that Finals trip ancient history. Cleveland is also noteworthy as the sporting home of "other Joe," my former partner in crime in the radio world. He's a guy who's known my pain for years and years, and while LeBron James' return means he's likely closer to ending his drought, we're mostly in the same boat.

Between Cleveland and Washington, we've got disappointment covered.

So why endure it? Obviously it's easier to pick individual teams with amazing players like the Pittsburgh Penguins or the Green Bay Packers, or a city with gobs of money and history like Boston or Chicago. You've got a better shot at a title, which means you won't have to deal with the shit that everyone else seems to enjoy throwing at people who choose to remain hometown fans. As a Capitals fan, I've not met a single Penguin fan in the DMV who resists the urge to twist the knife. And good luck finding a Cowboys fan in Maryland who doesn't exude glee whenever the Redskins falter.

Which brings us back to the question: why endure such pain? Wouldn't it be easier to just switch over to a better team, or a better city? Wouldn't you feel less disappointment?

Maybe.

But the whole idea of sticking with your team is that one day, it'll be worth it. I've ridden the Bullets/Wizards since I was a little kid. If they're ever able to win the NBA title, I'll celebrate my butt off. If the Caps are ever able to overcome history and raise the Stanley Cup, I can't even begin to imagine the relief and joy I'll feel. We stick with our teams because we have faith and hope that one day, they'll win. And we want to be around for it.

We see all these cities hosting parades and we think, "God, that would be amazing." We watch other teams raise banners and we think, "Someday that'll be us." We see guys like Trent Dilfer and Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady talk about their trips to Disney World, and we think, "There's no reason Robert Griffin or Kirk Cousins couldn't take that trip, right?" Some of it is delusion (the 'Skins may never win another game). Some of it is playing the odds (hockey has a great deal of parity in its playoffs; almost any team has a shot). And some of it is wishful thinking (Kevin Durant hasn't said he wouldn't come to the Wiz). And part of it is simple stubbornness. But at this point, no way am I changing sides.

The O's are still just four wins from the World Series!

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals - Position By Position

I was watching SportsCenter yesterday, and I saw a segment in which Eduardo Perez went position-by-position among hitters and compared the two American League teams that will begin the Championship Series tonight: the upstart Kansas City Royals and my hometown Baltimore Orioles. I found myself interested in the results for obvious reasons; I like hearing what people think of the Orioles, and since we've had a little break here in between series, I'm frothing for baseball talk.

Well, Eduardo Perez seems to be stuck in his Cincinnati/St. Louis years, and can't get away from middle America, because his picks were mostly insane. Alright, not insane, but I disagreed with more than one. So, I decided to do my own comparison. It'll have to be quick, since the series starts today and I want this posted beforehand, so I can be accountable for my absurd claims. But I'll provide as much information as I can, and I'll definitely fly off at the handle on at least one of these.

Here we go. (Name preceded by * is my choice. WAR numbers, and most other statistics, retrieved from baseball-reference.com)

Catcher
*Kansas City - Salvador Perez (WAR 3.3) (Eduardo's pick)
Baltimore - Nick Hundley (0.1)/Caleb Joseph (1.2)

Can't really argue with Eduardo on this one. Perez is a solid hitter and has a good arm for throwing out base-stealers. That won't matter much against an Orioles team that doesn't run, but even if the Orioles never get caught stealing, Perez is a better catcher and better hitter than either of Baltimore's guys. If Matt Wieters were healthy this would be closer, but since he's not, Perez takes it easily.

First Base
Kansas City - Eric Hosmer (0.8) (Eduardo's pick)
*Baltimore - Steve Pearce (6.0)

Here we go, my first disagreement with Eduardo, but I can't really blame Eddie. He's fallen into the trap of recency. Eric Hosmer had an amazing Division series, hitting .500 and delivering a number of clutch hits for the Royals. But the reality is, there's no reason to expect Hosmer to continue to mash that way. His career slash line is .275/.328/.418. A .418 slugging percentage for your first baseman? Ask the Nationals how that turned out (sorry Adam LaRoche). I'll grant you that Pearce's performance this season has been somewhat out-of-nowhere, but so was Nelson Cruz's in 2009, and it turns out he can play.

Also of note is that Hosmer is actually a small minus as a defender, with a -0.3 dWAR. Maybe it comes into play, maybe it doesn't, but it's worth noting. Pearce, for what it's worth, posted a 1.5 dWAR.

Second Base
*Kansas City - Omar Infante (0.7) (Eduardo's pick)
Baltimore - Jonathan Schoop (1.5)

I would've liked to pick Schoop here, and obviously with their comparative WARs, I'd have had some justifications. Schoop was actually a really solid defender this year, and I like his pop, but I have a lot more faith in Infante. Infante is a veteran with some playoff experience. While he has been an abysmal batter in the playoffs, I don't buy into that as a characteristic. I think his experience will only prove to be a positive going forward.

And yes, I'm aware that Infante is 0/11 this postseason. I'm still leaning in his direction.

Third Base
*Kansas City - Mike Moustakas (0.4)
Baltimore - Ryan Flaherty (1.1)
(Eduardo called this a push)

While my pick is Moustakas by a hair, the reality is that neither guy figures to be a difference-maker in the series. Moustakas was a high draft pick who's shown very little hitting prowess outside of the occasional home run. Flaherty, meanwhile, is also a light-hitting marginal player. Moustakas showed some pop in the series against the California Angels (I'll never change), and he's got more pedigree, so he gets the nod. If Manny Machado were healthy, this would be a no-brainer pick for the O's though. Just another sad reminder of how injuries affect every season.

Shortstop
Kansas City - Alcides Escobar (2.4)
*Baltimore - J.J. Hardy (3.4) (Eduardo's pick)

Alcides Escobar is a slap hitter with good speed but minimal power. He's also one of those players who gets a reputation for being a good fielder because of his speed, when in reality he's simply average. Hardy, on the other hand, has been a plus defender at shortstop for years, winning Gold Glove Awards in 2012 and 2013. He historically has had good power as well, though it disappeared for most of the year. He beat up on the Tigers in the Divisional series, and clubbed what looked like an important homer in Game 1 (though that was before the O's went for 8 in the bottom of the eighth). I like Hardy here.

Left Field
*Kansas City - Alex Gordon (6.6) (Eduardo's pick)
Baltimore - Alejandro De Aza (0.7)

The Orioles have gone with a couple different options in the outfield, but De Aza seems to be the weapon of choice right now. He's been fine, but obviously Gordon is vital to the Royals and a much better player. I know his WAR was 6.6 this year, but when I heard Eduardo Perez say that Gordon is going to be in the MVP discussion this year, I lost my head. Gordon is a plus-plus defensive player, and that's great. But his offensive statistics simply don't warrant consideration. He played in 156 games, but didn't break 90 runs or RBI. He hit .266 with 19 homers. He stole 12 bases. Let me know which of those numbers you want to point to as MVP caliber.

Gordon is my pick, but come on Eddie. Don't make a fool of yourself.

Center Field
Kansas City - Lorenzo Cain (5.0)
*Baltimore - Adam Jones (4.9) (Eduardo's pick)

Get serious. I love Lorenzo Cain as much as the next guy, but get serious.

Right Field
Kansas City - Nori Aoki (1.0) (Eduardo's pick)
*Baltimore - Nick Markakis (2.1)

I actually don't agree that Markakis is even 2 wins better than a replacement-level player, but he's still better than Aoki. Aoki is representative of the whole Royals team: he's a guy with speed, decent batting average, and minimal power. He apparently posted a -1.3 dWAR, which I suppose I have to trust since I haven't seen him play outside of some limited playoff time. Markakis is mostly an on-base guy with a little pop and the ability to get around the bases. He's actually really good at scoring from second or going first-to-third on a single, which helps keep the pressure on and threaten big innings. So he's got that going for him.

Designated Hitter
Kansas City - Billy Butler (-0.3)
Baltimore - Nelson Cruz (4.7)
(No pick by Eduardo)

I thought about just letting the two WARs speak for themselves, but I decided I wanted to mention Cruz's stats for posterity. Also, Eduardo Perez simply ignored the DH spot, which basically writes off the Orioles' best hitter. Cruz hit 40 home runs to lead the American League this season, and if possible, he's gotten even more deadly in the postseason. He hit .500 against the Tigers in the ALDS, but that's nothing new for Cruz. In his career, he's hit .297 with 16 HR in 37 postseason games, and he figures once again to be the lynchpin for the Orioles' offense.

Pitching

These two teams actually have pretty similar pitching staffs. The best pitcher is a Royal (James Shields), but there's truthfully not much separating Shields from Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, or his teammate Yordano Ventura. Additionally, both bullpens are strong, though I'd give an edge to the Orioles, owing mostly to their trade deadline acquisition of Andrew Miller. He was an expensive addition, but that guy is as good as advertised.

Eduardo declared that the Royals had better pitching and defense.

Wrap-Up and Prediction

Listen, it's still baseball. I think the Orioles are the better hitting team, and the stats on Baseball Reference say that in fact they were the best fielding team in the majors this year. Their starters are okay, and their bullpen is excellent. But you still have to play the games. Just ask the Angels, Dodgers, and Nationals. I desperately want the Orioles to win, but everybody's going to have their day. Still, it's hard to go against all this data I managed to assemble, even if I did probably look at it with a biased point of view. So, what the heck.

Prediction: Baltimore Orioles over Kansas City Royals (4 games to 1)

The Baseball Story of Bret Saberhagen

This past week, Phil Hughes set an all-time record for strikeout-to-walk ratio for a season, breaking Bret Saberhagen's twenty-year-old record. That got me thinking about Bret Saberhagen, which led us here. Rock and roll.

It should be noted that, while advanced statistics support claims that Saberhagen was an exceptional pitcher, he doesn't have any actual connection to the term sabermetrics.

Immediate Dividends

Saberhagen was drafted straight out of Grover Cleveland High School in Reseda, California by the Kansas City Royals in 1982. He blew away hitters at single- and double-A in 1983, compiling a 16-7 record with a cumulative 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 27 starts. Unsurprisingly, Saberhagen broke camp with the major league ballclub in 1984.

Saberhagen was effective as a rookie as well. He went 10-11 with 3.48/1.10, and that WHIP is what's most impressive. Not many rookies are able to control innings as well as he did, and he did so with tremendous control and pitching to contact. He walked just 36 batters in 157.2 innings in his rookie season, a great rate for anyone and an amazing rate for such a young pitcher (he was 19 entering the season). As I mentioned at the beginning, that's kind of Saberhagen's thing, not walking guys.

Interestingly, Saberhagen didn't receive a single vote for Rookie of the Year. Granted, his numbers weren't tremendous, and the top two vote-getters absolutely deserved the lion's share: Alvin Davis won the ROY with .284-27-116, and Mark Langston finished second with 17-10, 3.40, and 204 strikeouts in 225 innings. But among the guys who managed to nab a single vote were Ron Romanick (12-12, 3.76, 87 K in 229.2 IP) and Saberhagen's teammate Mark Gubicza (10-14, 4.05, 111 K in 189.0 IP).

The only explanation I can think of is that innings pitched was a real barn-burner back in the early 80s. Although I don't think the innings disparity makes up for how much better Saberhagen was than Romanick and Gubicza, I'm okay with innings pitched getting a little more credit as a statistic. We talk all the time about the value of guys getting deep into games, giving their bullpens a break. Maybe we should acknowledge that effort in the raw statistics that give us that information.

Anywho, back to Sabes, who didn't let his lack of ROY votes get him down. Like, at all.

Winning, Winning, Winning

In 1985, Bret Saberhagen had a banner year. He started perfectly fine, with a record of 7-4 and an ERA of 3.23 through the end of June. But that's when he turned it on. Here's a list of amazing things that Saberhagen did in 17 starts from July 3rd through October 5th:

• posted a win-loss record of 13-2
• threw seven complete games, including a 10-inning game on August 19 against the Tigers
• pitched into the ninth inning or beyond in 10 different games
• walked two or fewer batters in every start
• yielded an absurdly low .256 OBP to opposing batters

Oh, and the Royals went from two games over .500 to twenty games over .500, edging the California Angels (I just love typing that) by a single game for the AL West crown. Saberhagen had a rough series against the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS, going only 4.1 and 3.0 innings in his two starts, but the Royals were able to squeak into the World Series with George Brett basically willing them there.

Then, after dropping the first two games at home to the St. Louis Cardinals, Dick Howser gave the ball to Saberhagen, and Bret answered with a complete game one run, six-hit win. Then in game seven, under the brightest lights, Saberhagen posted another complete game, this time a shutout. His two masterpieces earned him the World Series MVP award; his dominance all season earned him the 1985 Cy Young Award.

From 1986-1988, Saberhagen had his share of ups and downs. He won 18 games in 1987, but then gave up more hits than anyone in the league in 1988.

Then in 1989, Saberhagen was brilliant. Once again he was phenomenal after the All-Star break. From July 14 on, he went 15-2, receiving the decision in every start. By the end of the year, he led the AL in...everything?

• 23 wins
• .793 winning percentage
• 2.16 ERA
• 12 complete games
• 262.1 innings pitched
• 0.96 WHIP
• 4.49 K/BB ratio

He received 27 of 28 first place votes to win his second Cy Young Award (some crackhead gave Dave Stewart a vote).

Dethroned

The legacy of Bret Saberhagen, though, is inconsistency. He missed time in 1990 and 1991 with various ailments, though he did throw his only no-hitter in August of 1991, and the last no-hitter in Kansas City Royal history to date.

That offseason, Saberhagen's time with the Royals ended (get the "dethroned" title now?) as he was traded to the New York Mets along with Bill Pecota for Gregg Jefferies, Kevin McReynolds, and Keith Miller in a fierce collection of mostly irrelevant players. Saberhagen was solid for the Mets when he was able to stay healthy, maintaining his disdain for free passes. In 524.1 innings with New York, he issued just 77 total walks. In the strike-shortened 1994, he set the aforementioned previous record for best strikeout-to-walk ratio in a season at 11.00. But he also never managed more than 25 starts, again due to a variety of ailments, or perhaps just one big one that hadn't been detected yet...

Saberhagen was traded again in the middle of the 1995 season, this time to the playoff-bound Colorado Rockies, ruining fantasy owners everywhere. His ERA at the time of the trade was 3.35, but ballooned up to 4.18 in nine starts for the Rockies. Colorado still made the playoffs, but lost in the divisional round to the Braves. Saberhagen was no help, yielding six runs in 4 innings in his only start.

An Injury Unlike Any Other

Then, leading into 1996, Saberhagen found himself extremely bothered by an unresponsive shoulder injury. After multiple tests, he was found to have a torn anterior capsule in his pitching shoulder. Up to that point, surgery had been conducted to repair this injury exactly zero times. The reason you don't really hear about it is that the injury actually isn't often "successful." Among the folks who've had the surgery are a litany of "hey remember how good ____ was" names: Rich Harden, Mark Prior, Chien-Ming Wang, Johan Santana.

That said, Saberhagen actually recovered fairly well from the surgery. He missed all of the 1996 season and entered free agency. The Boston Red Sox signed him to a $500k contract for the year, and he missed most of the 1997 season as well, coming in for six starts starting in August. He wasn't impressive by any stretch (6.58 ERA, 1.54 WHIP), but the BoSox saw enough to keep him around, and it paid off handsomely. Over the next two seasons with Boston, he'd go 25-14 in 53 closely-monitored starts, and earning another award for his cabinet: 1998's Comeback Player of the Year.

Unfortunately, the year 2000 was not a new start for Saberhagen, as he encountered more shoulder problems and underwent another shoulder surgery. The Red Sox stood by him through it all, but this spelled the beginning of the end. Sabes made three starts for Boston in 2001, but it was clear he simply didn't have it, and he retired at the end of the season.

Of course, in those 15 innings, he didn't walk a batter.

Final Statistics
Career win-loss record: 167-117
Career ERA: 3.34
Career WHIP: 1.14
Career K/BB ratio: 3.64
Career complete games: 76
2 Cy Young Awards (1985, 1989)
1 World Series MVP Award (1985)
Career earnings: $47,688,230