The Penn State Sexual Abuse Scandal

I'm probably going to piss off a lot of people with this post, and alienate other people, and maybe get through to a couple as well. But I'm too upset with what I hear from too many people to not talk about this.

By now, most people know the testimony. Former Penn State defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky is accused of molesting eight different young boys over a 15-year period. Head coach Joe Paterno comes into the picture in 2002, when graduate assistant Mike McQueary observed Sandusky doing something to a young boy in a locker room shower (his grand jury testimony says sodomy, the testimony by Penn State higher-ups says McQueary reported a more vague level of fondling or other sexual contact; either way, up to no good). McQueary spoke to his father, who told him to speak to Paterno, and things went up the ladder, where a decision was made to bar Sandusky from bringing children to the campus.

How many people here are morally culpable? Probably everyone. But there's an order to things, and Paterno is not at the top of the list. How would I sort the villainy? Well, starting here:

Sandusky
Sandusky
Sandusky
Sandusky
Sandusky

Let's not lose sight of the actual situation. Jerry Sandusky is a sick and deplorable human being. He's far and away the villain here, since, you know, he was the guy who was actually raping children. Everyone else who's at fault (and there are plenty) would've never been put in a position to disappoint if Sandusky just wasn't a monster.

Mike McQueary

McQueary actually witnessed Sandusky in the act of committing one of these crimes, and what did he do? He called his dad and asked him what to do, then called Paterno the next day. McQueary was 28 at the time of the incident. He was a grown-ass man who saw another man raping a child, and did nothing. I can maybe understand being scared; it's an inconceivable thing to see, and in seeing it, you have to think that the perpetrator is capable of anything. So maybe you're too frightened to confront the guy alone. But come on. I'm sure other people were in the building; get a mob together if you're scared. And if nothing else, you call the cops.

The report said that both Sandusky and the victim made eye contact with McQueary at the time of the incident. So that kid saw an adult come across him being assaulted, and the adult walked away, and left him with his assailant. If we're making a list of things that will do severe psychological damage to a child, that's got to be on that list somewhere.

University President Graham Spanier
University Vice President Gary Schultz
Athletic Director Tim Curley

Curley was the person to whom Paterno reported what he heard from McQueary. Curley, along with Schultz, are the two people held legally responsible for their failure to report this incident to law enforcement authorities. They also both face perjury charges for what is believed to be dishonest or incomplete testimony to the grand jury.

Additionally, some combination of these three individuals came up with the response plan for Sandusky's assault, which was to take away his locker room keys and ban him from bringing children onto campus. ESPN's Jay Bilas addressed the toothlessness of this "punishment" perfectly by interpreting the message from Spanier as essentially saying, "Just don't do it here." It indicates an utter disregard for morality, and a complete focus on preserving university image. It's complicit, and disgusting.

Centre County District Attorney Ray Gricar

This excerpt is from an ESPN article available here:

Victim 6 is taken into the locker rooms and showers when he is 11 years old. When Victim 6 is dropped off at home, his hair is wet from showering with Sandusky. His mother reports the incident to the university police, who investigate.

Detective Ronald Schreffler testifies that he and State College Police Department Detective Ralph Ralston, with the consent of the mother of Victim 6, eavesdrop on two conversations the mother of Victim 6 has with Sandusky. Sandusky says he has showered with other boys and Victim 6's mother tries to make Sandusky promise never to shower with a boy again but he will not. At the end of the second conversation, after Sandusky is told he cannot see Victim 6 anymore, Schreffler testifies Sandusky says, "I understand. I was wrong. I wish I could get forgiveness. I know I won't get it from you. I wish I were dead."

Jerry Lauro, an investigator with the Pennsylvania Department of Public Welfare, testifies he and Schreffler interviewed Sandusky, and that Sandusky admits showering naked with Victim 6, admits to hugging Victim 6 while in the shower and admits that it was wrong.

The case is closed after then-Centre County District Attorney Ray Gricar decides there will be no criminal charge.

Nice work, counselor. Way to serve and protect.

Head Coach Joe Paterno

Paterno is the face of Penn State, and there's no denying that this happened on his watch. There's also no denying that Paterno was aware of something involving Sandusky; he has admitted as much, and said that he wishes he had done more, in hindsight.

We don't know what Paterno really knew. We know his testimony indicated that he was aware of an incident occurring between Sandusky and a child, and others' testimony corroborates that. We also know that he didn't hear about the incident from McQueary until the day after the event, and he was undoubtedly aware that McQueary apparently didn't think enough of the incident to contact the police at all. What we know now about Sandusky's continued harassment makes the choice obvious, but given the limited information regarding this one incident, and the question marks about the words McQueary actually used to describe the incident, and the fact that Paterno had known Sandusky for thirty-odd years, it's not cut and dry.

Consider your own job. Imagine a subordinate (we're talking about your job, because I have no subordinates to imagine) reported to you that another employee was engaged in a sexually inappropriate act with a child. Your main responsibility is to put that subordinate in touch with the appropriate person at your organization, or if you are the appropriate person, to get in touch with the authorities. After connecting the relevant parties, it's not your business anymore.

Paterno got Curley involved. Curley conducted his investigation (however much of a sham it might have been), came to his conclusions (however blind), and implemented his resolution (however insufficient). We don't know what Paterno was told about this process. It's not inconceivable that he was lied to by Curley and Schultz about the investigation, since those two are already suspected of lying to the grand jury.

Jemele Hill wrote a piece for ESPN (applauding Penn State for firing Paterno) that includes the following paragraph:

"For those who continue to cling to the notion that because Paterno fulfilled his legal obligation, he should be allowed to finish this season on his own terms, I pose this question: If that 10-year-old in the showers with Sandusky was your brother, cousin, nephew, friend or neighbor, would you be satisfied with how Paterno handled the situation?"

First, I think we can all agree that if it was your brother, you would want Penn State University brought to the ground. Not metaphorically; literally leveled with dynamite and wrecking balls. And you wouldn't care who was inside. You would just want someone to pay, and the more people who pay, the better. So let's try to appreciate that adding that level of emotion isn't going to result in reasoned discourse.

Second, flip the switch. What if Sandusky was your brother? Your cousin? Your friend? Wouldn't you look for ways, consciously or subconsciously, to convince yourself that the worst isn't true? Wouldn't you want to get your hands off the situation and put it in the hands of people whose responsibility it was to handle these kinds of situations?

American media, particularly sports media, tends to try to look at everything in a vacuum. One of my favorite shows, PTI, consistently asks un-nuanced all-or-nothing questions of its hosts. And maybe the best part of PTI is that Michael Wilbon and especially Tony Kornheiser offer decidedly measured and broad-scope responses to these questions. Taking the whole picture into account shouldn't be so rare.

But as I peruse through Facebook messages, and Twitter posts, and the comments attached to the various articles regarding this horrific story, I find very little in the way of thoughtful discussion. What's more troublesome is that I also haven't found much among those people who are paid to be insightful, like ESPN's Hall.

Another couple quotes from Hall's article:

"There have been 40 counts of felony sex abuse of minors levied against former Paterno assistant Jerry Sandusky, and though I am sickened by what Sandusky is accused of, our judicial system presumes his innocence until he is proved guilty.

But we're free to judge Paterno outside the constricts of the law. A lengthy indictment spells out what he did (or, more disturbing, what he failed to do) and what he knew."

"If Sandusky is proved guilty, he is obviously the worst monster in this sordid horror story. But it isn't a stretch to suggest that Paterno played the role of Dr. Frankenstein. He didn't create the monster, but if Sandusky is guilty, then Paterno is at least partially responsible for the tragedies of every one of the victims assaulted after that unidentified boy in the shower."

Throughout the article, Hall acknowledges that Sandusky's guilt is yet to be determined, and she consistently uses terms like "accused of" and "alleged." Paterno receives the benefit of no such doubt.

My last point here is in response to Hall's last point, and a point that is going to echo in the voice of every sportscaster on the planet, and I'm going to be angry about it every time. She declares that Penn State was courageous for ousting Joe Paterno. Her claim is that today's world sees football coaches as the "final authority" for high profile schools, and it's important that the Penn State board of trustees exercise their authority here.

My final response to that is my own post on a friend's comment on Facebook from last night:

"Everyone's mad. But Paterno leaving the school isn't going to make anyone less angry or hurt or disgusted or shocked. His departure is a front page story for a couple days, then PSU gets to shrink away while other tragedies (and other sports stories) overtake it, and the general public will forget and move on. But a lot of good people who rely on Penn State football for a thousand different reasons are going to suffer. What Sandusky did was damnable and shameful. What's happening to Paterno is just a damn shame."

Almost Guilty Until Proven Guilty

The chatter on Facebook/Twitter/the blogosphere has been pretty uniform today: Auburn had better enjoy their title while it lasts. There appears to be a consensus that the NCAA will eventually find additional information that will be enough to declare him to have acted improperly, and that Auburn will have to vacate their title victory from last night.

I find that unlikely. First off, an investigation was conducted and completed. Cam Newton was declared ineligible for a couple hours, then, after Auburn filled out the proper paperwork, was reinstated. The end result was that the NCAA investigated cleared Newton to play.

The reasoning I've heard is that, with regards to a parent or third party requesting illegal benefits, there are three circumstances for which a player can be suspended:

1. The parent or third party accepts benefits.
2. The parent or third party asks for benefits with the player's knowledge.
3. The parent or third party asks for benefits, then the player attends the solicited school, regardless of whether or not the player knew.

Apparently the information here has indicated that none of those three situations occurred. My understanding is that Cam Newton's father and some other guy tried to get money from Mississippi State in exchange for sending Newton there to play. Mississippi State didn't pay, and Newton went to Auburn. The only circumstance under which Newton would be ineligible would be if he knew that his dad asked for this money, and proving that someone knew something is nearly impossible (see Barry Bonds).

Do I think something improper went down that actually involved Cam Newton? It's possible. I operate under the assumption that pretty much every star college athlete gets some kind of improper benefit or preferential treatment. There's too much money in college sports, and the elite players are too valuable to their schools not to get some kind of extra cheese on their pizzas. But based on everything we've heard, Newton was okay to play, and Auburn was fine to play him.

If new information comes out, then the NCAA will react to that as necessary. But right now, I don't see things going that way. So I extend my congratulations to Auburn on the national title they deserved to win in 2004.

The Washington Redskins Offseason

Initially I was going to just talk about the Redskins' draft, but I figured there was no harm, and in fact something to gain by expanding the topic, so I did just that.

(Not So) Sexy Rexy

Rex Grossman was brought in, and while the company line was that Jason Campbell was still the starter, talk of an "open competition" festered, and the writing was pretty much on the wall. At this point, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen looked like potential draft picks for the 'Skins, so the expectation was that either Grossman or Campbell would be a placeholder while the rookie got himself up to speed.

New Running Backs

Three new halfbacks are in town, and each of them has a level of intrigue.

Larry Johnson had back-to-back 1700+ yard seasons for the Kansas City Chiefs, but that was 4 years ago. It remains to be seen if he can recapture some of that magic.

Willie Parker was a home run threat for the Steelers during both of their Super Bowl runs, setting the all-time record for longest rush in a Super Bowl in 2006. But his productivity has slid recently, and last year he was relegated to a backup role when Rashard Mendenhall burst onto the scene.

Ryan Torain has essentially played in one game as a pro, and while he did well (12 rushes for 68 yards and a TD against Cleveland in 2008 as a member of Mike Shanahan's Denver Broncos), he obviously is unproven. Shanahan must like him, though, so you could see him breaking into the rotation.

These three acquisitions point to the Redskins potentially parting ways with Clinton Portis, or at least down-sizing his role. I'm not opposed to that, as Portis has been "too big for his britches" for a year and a half now.

Mc-Nabbing a Quarterback

You see what I did there? I incorporated the concept of theft into the title of this section, which is appropriate, because I really believe that the Redskins trade of their second round pick and a mid-round pick next year for Donovan McNabb is a steal. While he's not in the first tier of quarterbacks (where Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers reside), he's right behind them, and in watching the Eagles over the past few years, I think McNabb still has the ability to make a play at any time, which is something you haven't been able to say about a quarterback in Washington for...twenty years? Maybe more?

This was obviously by far the biggest acquisition the Redskins made this offseason, and I think it immediately puts them into wild card contention.

A Name Worth Mentioning

When Adam Carriker was selected by the St. Louis Rams in the first round of the 2007 draft, I didn't know much about him, but I knew he had the kind of name you'd expect out of an elite player, so I figured he must be pretty good. It's kind of silly to admit that, but seriously, when you hear names like Peyton Manning, Golden Tate, Knowshon Moreno, and Anquan Boldin, you just know they're football players. Carriker had that kind of name.

So naturally, when he struggled early on, I was pretty surprised. The Redskins dropped back 28 picks in the 5th round to pick up the former first rounder, and I won't lie, I'm a little excited about what he could do. I mean, the talent was there for him to be an early pick in the draft. Hopefully Mike Shanahan and Jim Haslett can turn around Carriker's career, even if it's just to the point of being a starter. The price was right.

The Redskins' Brief Foray Into NFL Draft

Washington held the #4 overall pick in this year's NFL draft, and I don't think I'm the only one who was really hoping the 'Skins would be able to trade down a few slots, get some additional picks, and still acquire one of the top four offensive tackles, someone who can protect McNabb. They went 1/2, staying at the #4 slot and selecting Trent Williams out of Oklahoma. Everything I hear is that A) Williams is a great fit for Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme, and B) Williams and Rutgers tackle Anthony Davis have the highest upsides of offensive linemen in the draft. I have to trust other people on evaluating offensive linemen, so I feel pretty good about the move.

I can't speak much to the rest of the draft, because they only took players I've never heard of. The Redskins traded down a couple times in the later rounds and acquired extra picks, which I approve of as a general policy. I hope that their two late offensive linemen selections, C Erik Cook and OL Selvish Capers, are uniquely suited to the zone-blocking scheme, and will end up being shrewd moves. But that's really just blind hope.

The Campbell Era Ends

As expected, the Redskins finally traded away Jason Campbell. Somewhat surprising, though, was the marginal price that he commanded in the trade market. The Oakland Raiders acquired Campbell in exchange for a 4th round pick...in 2012. It would have been nice to trade Campbell for a commodity that helps right away, but I guess you take what you can get. If there's no market, there's no market. And really, you can't expect there to be much of a market for a QB outside of the top 20, which Campbell most certainly is.

I think a lot of local fans have a slightly misguided concept of how good Campbell was, and how good he could've been "if he had an offensive line," as the line tends to go. As a direct comparison, I offer Aaron Rodgers, superstar QB for the Green Bay Packers.

• Rodgers - 64.7% completions, 4,434 yards, 30 TDs, 7 INTs, 50 sacks for 306 yards, 10 fumbles, 4 lost.
  
• Campbell - 64.5% completions, 3,618 yards, 20 TDs, 15 INTs, 43 sacks for 285 yards, 11 fumbles, 3 lost.
  

Rodgers received just as much pressure as Campbell, completed about the same number of throws, and was unequivocally a better quarterback than Campbell. I can't in good conscience say that Campbell was put into a position to succeed, but I'm generally of the opinion that QB talent will bear out, and with Campbell it just never did. I never saw a game where Campbell made me think, "Holy cow, this guy is good."

I do wish the best for him this season and going forward, as I do think he was put into a tough situation and handled it with class. But I never want him to be either of my favorite teams' starting quarterbacks again.

Going Forward

So that's what we're looking at so far. I don't think the Redskins are done just yet; I could certainly see them signing former Cowboy Flozell Adams for a year or two to add some offensive line depth. And I think they'll still likely look at other opportunities to trade disgruntled defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. But even if no further changes are made, I think we're looking at a very productive offseason for the 'Skins. The addition of McNabb alone adds a couple of wins, and if Shanahan adds a couple more, we're looking at a playoff-caliber team.

And that's all we Washington fans want. We just want the opportunity to be disappointed in December and January. We want to care just enough to get slapped down by the hand of god.

And yes, I'm alluding to the Washington Capitals' crushing loss in seven games to the Montreal Canadiens. I'll try to talk about what happened at some point, but not now. I have not the heart to say. For me, the pain is still too near. But someday, when I've cooled off, we'll have a heart-to-heart about it, just you and me. Promise.

NFL Draft 2010 - Rounds 2-7

First round analysis can be found here.

Picks

The Vikings traded out of the first round, but put themselves behind the Colts, Saints, and Rams, three teams who wouldn't take a quarterback. So, with Brett Favre's future in question and Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels unlikely to be long-term options, I expected/hoped that Minnesota would snag Jimmy Clausen at great value. They didn't, so hopefully Favre will be back in 2010.

Clausen meanwhile ended up with the Panthers. The Panthers, who were without a first round pick, ended up with a very appealing quarterback option with the 48th pick in the draft. I'm not sure why they took QB Armanti Edwards in the third round (though he's likely to change positions) and Tony Pike in the sixth round after grabbing Clausen, but one thing is for sure: the Panthers are committed to finding a new quarterback.

The Ravens traded out of the first round, picked up 3rd and 4th round picks, and still got a first-round talent in Sergio Kindle. Unbelievable how this team is able to constantly acquire great players at great value. If I didn't dislike them so, they'd be the kind of team I'd love to root for.

I saw mock drafts in March suggest that the Raiders might take Bruce Campbell with their first round pick because of his excellent combine performance. The fact that he was available in the fourth round makes me think two things: first, the league is cooling off on dramatically changing a player's draft stock based on a few workouts, and second, despite general opinion, the Raiders have some idea what they're doing.

Trades

The Vikings traded up to grab Toby Gerhart, an interesting player, but one who Minnesota must like a lot more than I do, because I just couldn't see giving up a third rounder to move up 11 spots to make the pick. I could be wrong, though; my brother thinks he's going to be fantastic.

The Seattle Seahawks traded down a couple picks to acquire RB LenDale White, who'll be reunited with his old coach at USC, Pete Carroll. White showed flashes of being a very good short yardage back, and he could be a nice complement to the speed and elusiveness of Justin Forsett. The Seahawks also traded their 5th round pick to the Jets for Leon Washington, giving them several options going into training camp. The backfield will give fantasy owners fits, but could be productive in the world of, you know, real football.

There were several other trades made in the later rounds, but mostly they involved teams selecting players I've never heard of, so I don't feel qualified to talk about them.

Coming up, I've got an all-Redskins article, which will evaluate the Redskins' offseason moves, with an obvious emphasis on the draft.

Drive home safely everybody.

NFL Draft 2010 - First Round

So we're going to split this into several posts. The first one (this one) will be about the players selected and trades made in the first round of the NFL draft, last Thursday night. It won't include any selections by the Washington Redskins, which I'll cover in a Redskin-specific post in the near future.

First things first, the St. Louis Rams took Sam Bradford as the number one pick in the 2010 NFL draft. A lot of people like Sam Bradford, and I'm one of them. I think he's going to be a good pro quarterback. But for the Rams, I think grabbing one of the premier defensive tackles would've been a better move. Last week's pre-draft post goes over most of the logic behind taking someone else, but just for the record, I'll let you know that this quote was mine:

"First off, I acknowledge the importance of a quarterback. It's extremely rare that a single player at any other position takes their team to the playoffs; you're talking about Barry Sanders and Warren Sapp in those instances, a couple of all-time greats. But I'm going with Ndamukong Suh, and here's why. First, he's probably the safest bet for long-term production, with the potential to in fact be one of those amazing players who can put a team on their backs. More importantly, I don't know that Sam Bradford is the best quarterback in the draft, and I'd be loathe to take Bradford and have Jimmy Clausen blossom into a top-tier signal-caller. Suh saves me from that possibility."

Seeing how the draft ended up playing out only makes me more certain that a defensive tackle was the way to go. Clausen being available at the Rams' second round pick means that they could have still likely acquired the #2 quarterback on every reasonable person's draft board, but been able to draft a potentially franchise-changing defensive player like Suh or Gerald McCoy.

I think Eric Berry was skilled enough to go #1 overall, as I really think he'll have that kind of long-term impact, but I get that teams are more willing to invest in quarterbacks and defensive linemen. Still, I think he'll help Kansas City in a big way, and wouldn't have been mad if Washington had elected to take him instead of an offensive lineman.

I've heard some talk about the Raiders' selection of Rolando McClain being surprising and a reach, but he was creeping up draft boards all week. It's obvious he's perceived to be a potentially great player, so I'm not going to say Al Davis made a bad move here. Now, Darrius Heyward-Bey last year over Michael Crabtree was just silly.

The San Francisco 49ers grabbed potentially the top tackle and the top guard in the draft, giving them a completely rejuvenated offensive line. Mike Singletary clearly is putting his stamp on this team, and you have to think his hard-nosed mentality can rub off on these guys. If it does, they could both be stars.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers got Maurkice Pouncey at 18, and the Green Bay Packers nabbed Brian Bulaga at 23. Apparently everyone else though that it was important to give a couple of very solid teams the chance to dramatically improve their offensive lines. Well done, NFL teams.

Picks 24 and 25 couldn't be more different. Dallas took Dez Bryant at 24; he's a kid with character questions but a world of talent. Meanwhile, Denver traded up to the 25 slot and acquired Tim Tebow, a god-fearing, hard-working project of a quarterback. I hate the idea of taking a quarterback like Tebow in the first round, when his skills don't really scream quarterback. Tarvaris Jackson was a project in 2006 when the Vikings took him in the second round, and he's still a work in progress...hopefully. Still, Tebow could end up being very productive, and certainly his work ethic screams leadership.

I think the Colts did great to acquire Jerry Hughes with the 31st overall pick. His size doesn't wow you, but everything else about him does. The Colts just know how to do business.

Well, that's the first round for you. Next, I'll look at the happenings in the remainder of the draft, including some of the notable trades that took place. See you soon.

Who Should The Rams Take With The #1 Overall Pick?

I decided to ask this question of anyone whose email address I could get my hands on. I now offer you their anonymous responses.

"Ndamukong Suh
The Rams have problems everywhere...everywhere. They aren't going to be a playoff team this year, next year or probably the year after that. Suh is the surest bet in the draft, can make an immediate impact and will probably still be around in 3 or 4 years when the Rams get out of their substantial hole...something that is 50-50 for quarterbacks. Names like JaMarcus Russell and Alex Smith should be ringing in the ears of St. Louis execs."
-Chevy Chase, MD

"Sam Bradford - They say his pro day workout was something like best seen since Aikman, and they ain't got no QB. Then again, some people say that McCoy would work better for their scheme, but since I don't know jack about their scheme: Bradford."
-Rockville, MD

"Tim Tebow, because he loves Jesus and circumcises babies."
-Rockville, MD

"I would trade down with the Redskins, get Haynesworth or Cambell from them and select Russell Okung, OT. I don't think any of the QBs are worthy of the first overall pick. I question Bradford's durability, and he played in a spread offense. I'd draft Suh if I had to stay at that pick, but would be hesitant since the last two drafts we went defense and neither of those picks panned out."
-Frederick, MD

"The Rams have to pick a QB. They are in a rebuilding stage and the best way to start that rebuild is with a QB. So that means they are going to select Bradford right? The experts would have you believe there is no other possible choice. So why hasn’t a contract been agreed to? Have there even been any contract talks between Bradford and the Rams? The Rams are going to select Jimmy Clausen. He has proven he can be successful behind a crappy o-line and an even worse defense. He has proven his durability and toughness by playing through injuries. The last thing the Rams would want is to take a QB number 1 and have that QB go out with another shoulder injury. And Clausen has played his whole career in a pro-style offense, not the spread like Bradford. Clausen is the pick. (I make no apologies for my bias opinion on all things Notre Dame football)."
-Rockville, MD

"First off, I acknowledge the importance of a quarterback. It's extremely rare that a single player at any other position takes their team to the playoffs; you're talking about Barry Sanders and Warren Sapp in those instances, a couple of all-time greats. But I'm going with Ndamukong Suh, and here's why. First, he's probably the safest bet for long-term production, with the potential to in fact be one of those amazing players who can put a team on their backs. More importantly, I don't know that Sam Bradford is the best quarterback in the draft, and I'd be loathe to take Bradford and have Jimmy Clausen blossom into a top-tier signal-caller. Suh saves me from that possibility."
-Rockville, MD

We're minutes away now. Best of luck to all the draftees...except anybody drafted by the Giants, Bears, Steelers, Cowboys, Eagles, Patriots, and, we'll say, the Chiefs.

2010 NFL Draft Preview

This year's NFL Draft will start on Thursday night. I'm not sure what I think of that, and probably won't be sure until it actually happens. I know that the Washington Capitals are scheduled to play Wednesday and Friday, so we'll see if I'm up for spending three straight nights on my couch watching sports.

I do know that I'll at least watch through pick #4, as I'm very interested to see what the Redskins do with their first round pick. I'd be pretty surprised if they did anything other than draft offensive tackle Russell Okung, but you never know. That's why you tune in.

But of course, the Redskins aren't the only team whose fate will be affected on Thursday night. And so, we look forward to the 2010 NFL Draft. Like last year, we'll predict the top fifteen picks and give some analysis on each.

2010 NFL Mock Draft

1. The St. Louis Rams select Sam Bradford, quarterback, Oklahoma. Not much surprise here at this point, with how much discussion there has been about Bradford's rise up everyone's draft board, but remember right after the NCAA football season ended? Ndamukong Suh was everyone's #1 pick. I guess we shouldn't be surprised when a quarterback ends up going #1 overall, though. Seven of the past ten first overall selections have been quarterbacks.
2. The Detroit Lions select Ndamukong Suh, defensive tackle, Nebraska. I don't generally get into college football, but I rooted like crazy for Nebraska when they played Texas in the Big 12 title game. A loss by Texas could have forced Cincinnati, Boise State, or TCU into the BCS title game, which is all I've ever wanted out of college football. Anyways, Suh is an elite defensive line talent, and the Lions are still the kind of team that just needs players.
3. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Gerald McCoy, defensive tackle, Oklahoma. There's been some debate over which elite defensive tackle is the better player, but in the end, both guys will probably be long-time successful pros. There aren't a lot of ways to go wrong in this draft, especially early on. Tampa, like Detroit, should just be looking for talent, and McCoy has it in spades.
4. The Washington Redskins select Russell Okung, offensive tackle, Oklahoma State. The more I read about Okung and the other tackles in this draft, the more I want the Redskins to find a way to reasonably trade down. None of these OTs is an elite, Jonathan Ogden/Orlando Pace caliber player, and there look to be four or five potentially very good tackles. If the Redskins hold onto the pick, Okung is the closest to a sure thing, so he's the pick.
5. The Kansas City Chiefs select Eric Berry, safety, Tennessee. A lot of the talk has been that Berry would be the best player available, but that Kansas City would be concerned about giving "top 5 money" to a safety. Hogwash, I say. It would be much more costly to pass on a premier player and watch him return interceptions for touchdowns for the Browns. The first non-Big 12 player will be Berry, here at #5.
   
6. The Seattle Seahawks select C.J. Spiller, running back, Clemson. I do think that the Seahawks will look long and hard at the various offensive linemen available, but with a new coach, especially a coach from college like Pete Carroll, I just expect him to want to go out and get a new toy for his offense. Spiller is highly rated, and I think he's their main target. With another pick later in the round, I imagine they'll be hoping that one of the top offensive tackles falls to them, which is a fair guess.
7. The Cleveland Browns select Dez Bryant, wide receiver, Oklahoma State. This doesn't feel like the pick that the Browns will make, but every time I run through the logic in my head, it makes the most sense. Their offensive line is actually pretty good, so I don't see them going after one of the remaining tackles. Mike Holmgren apparently doesn't think much of Jimmy Clausen, or so people tell me. And the intriguing defensive options don't seem to have enough value to take here. Bryant could help a lethargic Browns offense to actually scare some folks, and after signing Jake Delhomme, you'd better get him a weapon.
8. The Oakland Raiders select Jimmy Clausen, quarterback, Notre Dame. After last year's selection of Darrius Heyward-Bey, and the selection of Sebastian Janikowski in the first round of the 2000 draft, the Raiders have this aura of unpredictability around them. But as you look deeper, that's just not the case. While Darren McFadden, JaMarcus Russell, and Robert Gallery may not have turned out, they were all very reasonable picks, even "safe" picks. You can't blame Al Davis for trying to think outside the box. I think this year he stays reasonable, and sees Clausen as a guy who put up great numbers against top competition in college. He's a completely fair pick.
9. The Buffalo Bills select Brian Bulaga, offensive tackle, Iowa. A pretty boring pick for a team that's been pretty boring the past few years. New head coach Chan Gailey has been coordinating offenses for long enough to know the value of a strong offensive line, and if Brian Bulaga falls to their pick at #9, I'd be pretty shocked if the Bills didn't snag him.
10. The Jacksonville Jaguars select Jason Pierre-Paul, defensive end, South Florida. The Jags registered a measly 14 sacks in 2009, so obviously getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks is a desperate need. I've seen Pierre-Paul, Derrick Morgan, and Jerry Hughes all mentioned as the top DE in this draft, so any of them could go here. I mostly picked Pierre-Paul because he went to USF, and so he could maybe generate a little more buzz by staying in-state. Unlike some pundits, I don't see Tim Tebow as an option here.
11. The Denver Broncos select Rolando McClain, linebacker, Alabama. Every "big board" I've seen has McClain lower than this, but every mock draft I've seen has the Broncos taking him here. I'm not going to pretend I know something that the experts don't. McClain was the anchor for a sensational Crimson Tide defense last year, and everything points to him being a high character guy as well. Denver recently acquitted themselves of Brandon Marshall, so you have to think character is a factor for them.
12. The Miami Dolphins select Dan Williams, defensive tackle, Tennessee. The Dolphins run a 3-4 defense and don't have an elite nose tackle, so Williams is a nice fit. There was some thought that Dez Bryant was a perfect fit at this pick, but A) I've already got him well off the board, and B) the Dolphins just acquired Brandon Marshall, so wide receiver is suddenly not a need.
13. The San Francisco 49ers select Trent Williams, offensive tackle, Oklahoma. Just a couple years ago, the 49ers took another workout warrior, tight end Vernon Davis. Williams was impressive at the combine, as well as already being a highly touted tackle. Honestly, after seeing Williams fall this far, I went back over my draft board to make sure I didn't miss something, but this is how I see things playing out, which would be a coup for San Francisco.
14. The Seattle Seahawks select Anthony Davis, offensive tackle, Rutgers. Remember when the Seahawks reached for C.J. Spiller in the hopes that one of the top tier offensive tackles would fall to them? Well, hello Seattle, Anthony Davis just so happens to fall into that category. He's actually got the upside to be the best tackle from this class if he can overcome maturity concerns. Davis or Trent Williams would be a great result here if the Seahawks go for Spiller with the #6 pick.
15. The New York Giants select Derrick Morgan, defensive end, Georgia Tech. The sports talk radio interviews I hear suggest that Osi Umenyiora may be dealt, possibly on draft day, which would create a distinct need for a defensive end. Morgan and TCU's Jerry Hughes are both on the board here, but Morgan's quality has been better publicized, so I'll go with him. Hey, the Giants are still a New York team. They still react to public opinion on some level.
    

I'm holding out hope that the Redskins are able to find a way to trade down a few picks and get back into the second and/or third rounds. Everyone says this is one of the deepest drafts in years, and given the fact that the Redskins seem likely to select merely the best of several offensive tackles, the opportunity for creating some value by trading down seems distinct.

The McNabb Trade

Over the weekend, I had crafted what I thought was a pretty interesting blog post regarding the Redskins' decision with the #4 overall pick in this April's NFL draft. I had marked Sam Bradford, Gerald McCoy, and Ndamukong Suh as the likely top three players selected, leaving Washington with a whole slew of comparably valued players to choose from.

And then, of course, the Redskins went out and traded for Donovan McNabb, and their whole team identity and potential draft strategy went out the window. So now I've got to craft a different blog post, and I'll do it, but you're not going to get it today. Today, you get my blog post telling you about the next blog post. Eat it.

New NFL Overtime Rules

So it looks like the NFL will be adopting a change to the playoff overtime rules. Owners voted this week to adopt the following changes:

If the team that wins the coin toss scores a field goal on their opening possession, the opposing team will have one possession to tie or win the game. If the team receiving the ball second also scores a field goal, the game will go into a sudden death format, where the first team to score next will win.

If the team that wins the coin toss scores a touchdown on their opening possession, they will win the game.

If the team that wins the coin toss does not score on their opening possession, the game will go into a sudden death format, where the first team to score next will win.

Got it? It's actually not all that complicated, despite Sean Payton's whining.

In fact, it sounds like there are a decent number of people who really dislike this rule change. There are also a lot of people who think it's about time. I fall into neither category.

I never really thought that a team that went to overtime and got beat on the first possession had much to gripe about. When you go to overtime, that means that you didn't play well enough during regulation to win the game. You have 60 minutes of regulation to prove you're the superior team. When you go to overtime, you're getting extra time to make a play because fans generally don't like ties. But getting an overtime possession isn't your "right."

By the same token, I don't have a problem with extending football games a little bit, if they reach overtime. It will create more dramatic, do-or-die situations at the end of a couple of games, and I'm alright with that.

I didn't need the overtime rules to be changed, but I'm fine with the fact that they were.

Now, college football overtime rules are just a bastardization of football, and should be abolished.

2009 Redskins Report Card: Week 15 vs. New York Giants

Giants 45, Redskins 12

Oh no.

Offense: C-
Defense: D
Special Teams: D
Overall: D+

It would be fair to wonder how much the coaching/front office situation might have distracted the players this week. The hiring of Bruce Allen has led everyone in town to believe that Jim Zorn is 100% finished as the Redskins' head coach, and they're all probably correct. So it's not unreasonable to think that the resignation of Vinny Cerrato and the addition of Allen might've caused some players to lose focus.

But the cause for this awful performance was beyond just a lack of focus. The offensive line prevented the 'Skins from getting any sort of momentum, though I'm willing to attribute some of that to the Giants' elite front four. But outside of a 20-yard scamper by Marcus Mason, the running game was stifled. Jason Campbell wasn't ineffective at quarterback, but he was sacked five times and threw two interceptions, so it's not like the passing game offered much more.

When you give up 45 points, though, blame has to be directed at the defense. Eli Manning is generally overrated, in my book, but the Washington defense was all too happy to let him have open looks all night. You know I'm not crazy about passer rating as a statistic, but when you get up to 144.4, that's sort of beyond the "reasonable doubt" zone.

Ways to improve? I don't know. I feel like you just want to get through the end of the season without costing yourself anything for next season, injury-wise. So I'd limit the snaps of guys like Fred Davis, Devin Thomas, and honestly, Quinton Ganther. The young fella can play, and perhaps most importantly, he seems to have a nose for the end zone that nobody's had in this town since Terry Allen.

Around the League

• Despite the Colts' victory, Jack Del Rio finally forced Maurice Jones-Drew down the throat of his opponents, and the result was a competitive game against the best team in football. Maybe continue to employ your best player, Jackie boy?
• Can we finally put to rest the idea that Tony Romo turns to a pumpkin after December 1st?
• Jerome Harrison and Joshua Cribbs shredded the Chiefs like tissue paper. Like red and yellow tissue paper. Am I the only one who's not surprised that Mike Holmgren agreed to come to town after that showing?
  
• While the Bengals couldn't pull off a victory, they played a fantastic game against the Chargers. Chris Henry would've been proud.
• Was JaMarcus Russell the problem the whole time? Suddenly the Raiders are a tough spot on the schedule. The Raiders.
• It might just be me, but the way that the Ravens are playing, I'd hate to get matched up against them in the first round.
• I think the Golden Gophers and Vikings must've gotten on the wrong planes, because Minnesota looked like a college team against the Panthers.

Dallas next week. Here we go.

BCS Rantings and Ravings

I'm going to try to not go all the way off about the BCS and what a joke it is, because I've done that here, here, and here. Additionally, Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports did a great job of spelling out all of the different ways that colleges, fans, and teams could benefit from a playoff system in this article, posted a couple weeks ago. I'm just going to talk about this year, and the different games that led us to our current BCS bowl lineup. And, what the heck, make some picks too.

Rose Bowl
(8) Ohio State vs. (7) Oregon

This feels like the least nationally relevant Rose Bowl in a long time, but maybe that's just because USC was bad this year. "Bla bla, they still went 8-4 and beat Ohio State." Yeah, and they lost to Washington and Arizona. Don't argue with me; using USC's standards, they had a terrible year.

Anyways, this game seems to be Oregon's to lose. They're one of the hottest teams in college football, and their offense has posted 37+ points in six straight games. The coolest thing, though, is that at the end of the season, we might be able to look back at the Oregon/Boise State game in week one as a matchup of eventual top five teams. Makes me almost wish I had watched it...almost. It was 19-8, that doesn't look like the kind of score that I want to see.

Prediction: Oregon 34, Ohio State 17

Sugar Bowl
(5) Florida vs. (4) Cincinnati

This game probably spells the biggest trouble for defenders of the BCS. While TCU certainly has a valid gripe, Cincinnati is an undefeated team from a "power conference" (as long as the Big East gets an automatic BCS bid, you can't argue me on that). Like the 2005 Auburn team, Cincinnati has a chance to be an undefeated team from a BCS conference that never got a chance to play for the championship.

By the way, one of the clearest ways that you can tell that there's a problem with the BCS is that the team that loses the BCS title game doesn't finish the season ranked #2. If the title game is supposed to be between the #1 and #2 teams, doesn't that mean that the loser is the #2 team? Does anyone think that the Cardinals weren't the runner-up team in the NFL last season? Sigh, ridiculous.

It probably won't matter, though. Florida should beat Cincinnati and wrap up one of the great college careers of all time for Tim Tebow. I don't know how good he'll be in the NFL, but I definitely look forward to it.

Prediction: Florida 35, Cincinnati 25

Fiesta Bowl
(6) Boise State vs. (3) Texas Christian

Undefeated TCU takes on undefeated Boise State in what I am now calling the Joe Mattingly NCAA Championship game. Alabama and Texas can fight for the intercontinental title; this game is for the heavyweight belt. Because this game should be awesome.

TCU has one of the strongest running attacks in college football, with three different players averaging at least 50 yards rushing per game, plus 43 more yards per game from their quarterback. Oh, and said quarterback, Andy Dalton, has a ho-hum passer rating of 159.6.

Meanwhile, Broncos quarterback Kellen Moore has 39 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions this season, and they've scored 42+ in ten of their thirteen games. Did you catch that? Par for this team is six touchdowns. Their competition is a little suspect, but they beat currently 7th-ranked Oregon in their season-opener, so they're at least pretty good.

I have more faith in Boise State being able to close the deal, because they've been playing big teams in big games for a few years now. They know how to react to big game situations, whereas I could see TCU getting a little star-studded.

Prediction: Boise State 44, TCU 39

Orange Bowl
(10) Iowa vs. (9) Georgia Tech

In the "who gives a damn" BCS game, Iowa plays Georgia Tech.

Prediction: Iowa 24, Georgia Tech 22

BCS Championship Game
(2) Texas vs. (1) Alabama

It's hard not to look at this game and only think about the last game each of these two teams played. Alabama handled Florida with relative ease, and it took Texas three different bonehead plays by Nebraska to pull out the Big 12 title. Honestly, the Cornhuskers looked like the better team in that game. So how can I look at this game and see anything but a rout by the Crimson Tide?

Trick question; I can't. There's just so much talent on both sides of the ball for Alabama, and Texas' best player (Colt McCoy) seemed lost during the Big 12 championship game. Some of that can be attributed to playing against perhaps the most skilled player in the country, Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. But it's not like McCoy will be facing my Magruder High School Colonels in the BCS title game. They allowed the fewest points per game and second fewest yards per game in the country this year.

It's gonna be a bloodbath.

Prediction: Alabama 33, Texas 6

Enjoy the games, everybody. I mean, as much as you can enjoy an essentially meaningless collection of postseason games.

Crabtree vs. Edwards

Since the announcements came within hours of each other yesterday, I figure there's no reason not to examine the two big NFL wide receiver acquisitions and compare their relative impacts on their teams, this year and going forward.

Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers

Crabtree was the 10th player selected in this year's NFL draft. He was perhaps a victim of Oakland's Al Davis becoming enamored with Darrius Heyward-Bey from the University of Maryland. Most projections I saw around draft day were putting him between pick five to the Browns and pick eight to the Jaguars, so while falling to tenth was probably disappointing, it was by no means a ridiculous dropoff. That's just one more puzzling part of the holdout that kept Crabtree unsigned until now.

Crabtree's holdout extended well into the season, and most fans saw it as a ridiculous sequence of events. The player was asking for money greater than players drafted in front of him because he dropped a few picks beyond where he expected to be drafted. These negotiations were the first anyone's heard of in which mock drafts and blog posts were produced as justification for more money by the player. It sounds like it was ludicrous.

But he's signed now, and it's time to assess how he can help this team. The reality is that the San Francisco 49ers have one of the weakest passing attacks in football (fifth fewest passing yards per game, and they're dead last in passing attempts per game), so adding some kind of talent might have a serious positive impact.

And make no mistake, Crabtree has got talent. There's a reason he was the #1 rated wide receiver on everybody's board in the 2009 NFL draft. He posted huge numbers and made big plays in two prolific years at Texas Tech, and he was almost always on the field for that offense, demonstrating impressive stamina. He's extremely competitive, very physical, and well-rounded. He's also more than happy to throw blocks, which fits perfectly with the 49ers run-first offense. He's only 6'1", but I don't expect his height to prevent him from becoming a solid receiver.

It's always difficult for rookie receivers to have substantial impact, and Crabtree won't likely be any different. Add to that his late arrival to the team, and San Francisco should probably be happy if he can simply run a few crisp patterns in each game over the next 3-4 weeks. Long-term, I expect Crabtree to develop into a Hines Ward type of player, and if he can provide the 49ers with some intensity and consistency, he can help bring this team all the way back from the dead.

Braylon Edwards, New York Jets

There are suspicions abound regarding the relationship between the Jets acquiring Edwards via trade and Crabtree agreeing to a deal with the 49ers. While everything I read says the Jets won't be found guilty of tampering with Crabtree, the timing of the two transactions is certainly conspicuous.

Anyways, let's focus on Braylon Edwards. Edwards had a monster season in 2007, registering 80 catches and 16 TDs, but he fell way back down to Earth last season. He caught just three touchdown passes all season, and he became famous for dropping pass after pass, regardless of quarterback. Interestingly, his yards per game fell from 80.6 right back down to around his previous average of 53.7, which begs the question: was Edwards' fantastic 2007 just an anomaly, and is that mediocre production what we should expect from year to year?

There's always the chance, of course, that his hands get better, and he suddenly becomes an elite WR, year in and year out. Unfortunately for the Jets, though, Edwards' contract runs out after this season, and there were murmurs that he was looking for $9 million a year on a new deal. If he doesn't improve, he's not worth $9 million a year, but if he does, he's worth more like $11 million a year. It's a "rock and a hard place" situation for New York, but my guess is they'd rather Edwards made their decision easy by becoming an elite wideout.

The Comparison

Let me just start by saying I don't think either of these players will be team-changers this season. Both the Jets and 49ers are solid teams right now, and they'll both get a little better by augmenting their receiving corps. Additionally, they're both run-first teams, so the pressure to succeed may be lessened. But I think Crabtree, despite being inexperienced and unproven, will make a greater positive impact on his team than Edwards will on his.

Crabtree's playing mentality fits beautifully with the 49ers' philosophies. He likes getting physical, he likes blocking, and he likes taking short plays and trying to break them for big plays. He's both a good complement to a strong running game, and a useful tool for a non-elite quarterback.

Edwards, meanwhile, will be expected to jump start the Jets' passing game, and bring balance to the Force...and the play-calling. The problem is, Edwards' talents are most effective when he can get loose and catch deep passes, which seem to always be difficult for young quarterbacks. Mark Sanchez looks like he's got the ability to be a nice NFL quarterback, but Edwards' presence may hinder the offense as much as it helps.

Statistically, their production might be fairly close. But I don't think we'll have any doubts at season's end which wide receiver was the bigger addition.

Projections (starting with week 5 statistics):
Michael Crabtree: 48 receptions, 625 yards, 5 TDs
Braylon Edwards: 40 receptions, 675 yards, 2 TDs

Disagree? Vote against me in the poll to the right, and we'll see what you guys think.

What to look forward to from Joe and Joe Sports this fall...

It's September, and football seasons have just kicked off. Baseball's regular season is screaming towards the finish line, and while St. Louis has the NL Central wrapped up, most of the other playoff spots are still up for grabs. College and pro basketball are on the horizon, and the NHL has already started having preseason games. Early autumn is perhaps the most exciting time in sports, and we're happy to say that it will also be an exciting time on Joe and Joe Sports.

If you've been a frequenter of our blog, you know a few things:

• You know that we're better writers than a lot of bloggers. Rather than quick blurbs with PhotoShopped pictures of players' heads on animals' bodies, we try to give you in-depth analysis that reads more like an article than a rant. We won't stop doing that.
• You know that we love baseball. We love the one-on-one competition between pitcher and batter, and we love the over-arching strategies that surround that competition. You can look forward to our postseason picks, both for the MLB playoffs and for the various award-winners in baseball for 2009. And I could maybe see us having another argument or two.
  
• You know we love our home teams. You've probably seen that I've revived the Redskins Report Card feature, and I'll keep that going all season again. Meanwhile, I know my partner in crime has been working on a post about his beloved Cleveland Browns. As different as our two cities might be, we share a fatalist desperation that all true sports fans should feel. I'll let him tell you about his when he's ready.
• You know it's been forever since we had a radio show. We know it, too.
• And lastly, you know that we're conceited, self-absorbed, arrogant bastards. Oh. Well, if you didn't, you do now.

We'll have all of that and a whole lot more as the leaves begin to change. Got any ideas or requests? Email us at joe.joe.sports@gmail.com.

2009 AFC West Preview

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (8-8)
Key Additions: RB Knowshon Moreno, DE Robert Ayers, CB Alphonso Smith, QB Kyle Orton, WR Brandon Lloyd, S Renaldo Hill, LB Andra Davis
Key Subtractions: QB Jay Cutler, LB Jamie Winborn, S Marquand Manuel, CB Dre' Bly, WR Brandon Marshall???

The defensive overhaul that the Broncos went through this offseason doesn't look like it will yield a much different result. They changed several players, but don't seem to have a distinct upgrade anywhere. I do like Renaldo Hill, though, and Andra Davis is at least a revolutionary name-speller.

Rookie Knowshon Moreno has got top-tier ability, and the turnover on the defensive side of the ball shouldn't create much of an overall difference in performance. Jay Cutler's tantrum was quelled with a trade to Chicago that netted multiple first round picks as well as Cutler's replacement, Kyle Orton. Orton isn't the same caliber quarterback as Cutler, and it wouldn't be terribly shocking if Chris Simms got a look under center at some point this season. Either way, the passing game won't be as potent as it was last year.

But perhaps the biggest issue for the Broncos going into the 2009 season is the drama surrounding superstar wideout Brandon Marshall. Marshall has 206 receptions over the past two seasons, and has established himself as one of the elite receivers today. But he's unhappy about his current deal ($2.2 million this year) and has demanded either a contract extension or a trade. Denver hasn't offered either, and it's degraded into a situation where nobody knows what will happen. If he plays for Denver this year, everyone benefits. If not, the whole team suffers.

I love Eddie Royal.

Projected 2009 record: 5-11

Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
Key Additions: QB Matt Cassel, DE Tyson Jackson, LB Mike Vrabel, LB Zach Thomas
Key Subtractions: TE Tony Gonzalez

Four of the Chiefs' top five tacklers last season were the starting secondary, which means the front seven wasn't getting the job done. To attempt to resolve that problem, the Chiefs drafted a gigantic defensive end in Jackson, and acquired two veteran linebackers. These changes don't put Kansas City on the fast-track to the Super Bowl, or even the playoffs, but I do believe Vrabel and Thomas will help Jackson, Glenn Dorsey, and Tamba Hali develop into a pretty fearsome young front.

Is Matt Cassel the answer to all of Kansas City's offensive questions? Probably not, but I can't help but pull for Cassel, for both parties. Cassel is the guy everyone (including me) thinks was just a beneficiary of a good system last year in New England, and the Chiefs got branded as suckers (again, by me) for paying full price. Prove me wrong, kids! Prove me wrong! I don't think the Chiefs will do much this year, but if Larry Johnson can recapture some of his old fire, there's no reason that Kansas City can't be a dangerous stop for any visiting team.

Projected 2009 record: 6-10

Oakland Raiders (5-11)
Key Additions: QB Jeff Garcia, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey
Key Subtractions: S Gibril Wilson, DE Derrick Burgess

Oh my, the Raiders. Every year I expect them to be the worst team in the NFL, and while they usually find a way to back into a few wins, they're always at least among the worst teams. They haven't won more than five games in any season since going to the Super Bowl after the 2002 season. It's really a shame, because Oakland has got good fans and some interesting players. The pick of Heyward-Bey in this year's draft was shocking to most, but he may have the most talent of any receiver in that draft. JaMarcus Russell was everybody's #1 overall pick in 2007, and Darren McFadden was the logical pick in 2008. The Raiders make some interesting decisions, but they seem to know talent when they see it.

This year could be trouble, though. Wilson and Burgess were important parts of the defense last year, and it's a defense that's been getting worse since they surprisingly had the #3 yardage defense in 2006. Michael Huff hasn't impressed since being taken in the first round that season, and he's been pushed to third on the safety depth chart behind two even younger players, Tyvon Branch and Hiram Eugene. I do expect the offense to finally take a little pressure off of the defense, and maybe that'll be enough to help the Raiders win some games.

Projected 2009 record: 3-13

San Diego Chargers (8-8)
Key Additions: DE/LB Larry English
Key Subtractions: none

Talk about a team that is staying the course. The Chargers return virtually every relevant player from last season, including an offense that was second in the NFL in points scored. In fact, the Chargers have been in the top five in points scored every year since 2004. With LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, and Philip Rivers all returning for another go-around, there's no reason they can't plant themselves back near the top.

What they need to take the next step is for their defense to recapture their dominance from 2006 and 2007. They gave up under 300 total yards only three times last season, and gave up over 400 yards on four different occasions. Two of those occasions, however, were against the Jay Cutler-led Broncos, which should be considerably less potent this season without him. The reality is that there's no reason the Chargers can't finish in the top 5 along with their offense, which would make San Diego easily the team to beat in the AFC West. My guess is they wrap up the division by Thanksgiving and lose one or two meaningless games down the stretch (hopefully including their game against Washington to end the season).

Projected 2009 record: 11-5

2009 AFC South Preview

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans (8-8)
Key Additions: LB Brian Cushing, DE Antonio Smith, DE Connor Barwin
Key Subtractions: RB Ahman Green, QB Sage Rosenfels

Andre Johnson was the key part of the fourth best passing attack in football last year, and if Matt Schaub can stay healthy, there's no reason that ranking can't move up. Of course, that's no sure thing, given that he's only played in eleven games in each of his first two seasons in Houston. RB Green would be a more notable subtraction if Steve Slaton hadn't developed into a high caliber option at tailback. The major concern though, is getting into the end zone. Even with the third most total yardage in football, the Texans were just 17th in points scored. Slaton has to help that, but TE Owen Daniels also carries a responsibility to be a red zone receiving option. He had just two touchdowns last season.

The defense looks to still be a year away from making any big strides, but there's plenty of talent in line to produce. Veteran safety Eugene Wilson is the centerpiece of a defense mostly comprised of players drafted between 2006 and 2009. If the youngsters mature quickly, this defense could get better in a hurry. If not...well, Texans fans had better hope that 4,400 yards passing was a floor for this offense.

Projected 2009 record: 9-7

Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Key Additions: RB Donald Brown, DT Fili Moala
Key Subtractions: WR Marvin Harrison, RB Dominic Rhodes

As the old saying goes, "If it's not broke, don't fix it." That's the story with the Colts, who won at least ten games and made the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year, coinciding with Tony Dungy's tenure as head coach. Following such success puts a lot of pressure on new head coach Jim Caldwell, but the talent is all there for another successful season.

Peyton Manning recorded his ninth career season with at least 4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns. Yes, by the way, it is time to start talking about him among the all-time great quarterbacks. Dominic Rhodes was replaced by rookie Donald Brown out of Connecticut, who has been wowing people in camp and preseason. Joseph Addai is still the starter, but it's obvious that Brown will play a considerable role in the offense. The loss of Harrison isn't as big as it seems, as his production had slipped considerably last season. At age 37, it's unlikely he'll see any major bounceback, so the time had come to move on. Anthony Gonzalez will never be as good as Harrison or Reggie Wayne, but he'll be good enough to keep this offense chugging along.

The defense, meanwhile, continues to be what it's been for years: great pass rush, good pass defense, inept run defense. The advantage comes when the offense and defense both act like themselves in the same game. When Manning puts up points, he forces opponents to pass the ball, playing into the Colts defenders' hands. Dwight Freeney remains an elite pass rusher, but the other defensive end, Robert Mathis, has quietly become just as productive, averaging ten sacks per season over the past five years. So, like always, the game plan against the Colts is, "Don't let Peyton Manning beat you." Good luck.

Projected 2009 record: 12-4

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
Key Additions: WR Torry Holt, S Sean Considine, OT Eugene Monroe
Key Subtractions: RB Fred Taylor, WR Matt Jones, S Gerald Sensabaugh

Okay, so I was a year early when I predicted the Jaguars would be terrible in 2007. Let's not dwell on the past. And what I mean by that is, let's not dwell on the old Jaguars defense that was so good, and let's instead look at the new Jaguars defense, which isn't that good. They've got a high-caliber, big-play secondary, but the front line isn't nearly what it used to be. Nobody on the team had more than 4.5 sacks, and cornerback Brian Williams led the team in tackles. Swapping out Sensabaugh for Considine isn't a big change in talent or syllables.

The offense is going to have to all go through RB Maurice Jones-Drew. With Taylor moving north to New England, MJD has the whole backfield to himself, and he'd better produce, because there's not much else to get excited about here. Holt should still be productive, but how can you get excited about him when he's not even better than Matt Jones, the guy he's replacing? David Garrard threw an absurdly low three interceptions in 2007, and the team won 11 games. He threw a more normal 13 picks last year, and the team finished 5-11. I expect more of the latter this year.

Projected 2009 record: 5-11

Tennessee Titans (13-3)
Key Additions: WR Kenny Britt, WR Nate Washington
Key Subtractions: DT Albert Haynesworth, WR Brandon Jones

The Titans were one of the big surprises last year, and that was due in no small part to the emergence of rookie running back Chris Johnson, and his ability to perfectly complement LenDale White in a speed/power combo. They each found the end zone at least ten times last season, and combined for over 2,000 yards rushing. This ground game allowed Kerry Collins to stay within himself, and he was able to do so perfectly, turning the ball over just 8 times. More impressive, however, is the fact that he was only sacked 8 times as well, an obscene number for any starting quarterback. The additions of Nate Washington (if he can get healthy) and Britt give Collins a more skilled receiving corps, so who knows, maybe the offense could be more balanced this season.

Haynesworth's departure leaves a huge space in the middle of the defensive line (literally and metaphorically). The Titans still have six players who had at least three sacks last season, and their starting secondary had 18 INTs between them last season, so the pass defense should be up to the task. But Haynesworth was a huge body and a big factor in stuffing the run, and that could get opened up with him out of town.

The reality is that Tennessee got a lot of breaks last season, and executed a lot of performances that they're unlikely to repeat. I've always been a fan of Jeff Fisher, and I like a lot of Titans players. That's why I'm sure they'll be disappointing.

Projected 2009 record: 9-7

2009 AFC North Preview

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Key Additions: C Matt Birk, OT Michael Oher, TE L.J. Smith, CB Domonique Foxworth
Key Subtractions: CB Chris McAlister, LB Bart Scott, S Jim Leonhard, CB Corey Ivy

Oher, acquired in the draft, plugs in immediately as the starter at right tackle, and Birk is a Pro Bowl center who'll start immediately. Those additions help solidify a line that allowed Joe Flacco to be sacked 33 times last season. Not that 33 is a terrible number, but it's not a great number either, especially when you note that they attempted the third fewest passes per game. On most teams, L.J. Smith isn't a key addition, but I imagine you'll see he and Todd Heap lined up together more than a few times to help with pass protection, run blocking, and the short passing game.

The Ravens saw a mass exodus of talent from their defense this season, losing four of last year's starters. Foxworth is a decent addition, but the rest of the holes are being addressed in-house. I understand that Ray Lewis has been the face of the franchise, and for one year, Lewis is the guy I'd rather have. But the Ravens have always been pretty good at looking forward, so the decision to put money into Lewis instead of Scott was surprising. I don't see the defense being as good as they were last year, and I don't expect Flacco to be able to take a mediocre receiving corps and make them good.

Projected 2009 record: 8-8

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)
Key Additions: WR Laveranues Coles, DT Tank Johnson, OL Andre Smith, LB Rey Maualuga, S Roy Williams
Key Subtractions: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Carson Palmer's injury last year was pretty much the entire reason that Cincinnati's season was in the toilet. They had the worst offense in football, both in points and yardage. That's how they went from a .500 team to among the league's worst in just a few seconds. The loss of Houshmandzadeh to the Seahawks doesn't help, but Coles is a fairly logical replacement. Cedric Benson is one of the least appealing options you could have at running back, but unfortunately for them, the Bengals' other options are among those few less appealing ones. This will once again be a pass-first offense.

The Bengals weakness has always been their defense, and they took several steps to attempt to correct that this offseason. They made one big acquisition at each level of the defense, and the hope is that the influx of talent will yield results somewhere. Roy Williams has to prove that his reputation for making big mistakes in Dallas was just a result of over-anxious fans, and not a legitimate concern. And Tank Johnson has to prove that he can go to a team with a reputation like Cincinnati and not get arrested.

Projected 2009 record: 7-9

Cleveland Browns (4-12)
Key Additions: C Alex Mack, WR Brian Robiskie, WR Mohamed Massaquoi, WR Mike Furrey, DE Kenyon Coleman, LB David Bowens, LB Eric Barton, S Abram Elam
Key Subtractions: TE Kellen Winslow Jr., LB Willie McGinest, LB Andra Davis, S Sean Jones

Eric Mangini came in and made wholesale changes almost immediately, bringing in four new defensive starters from his old team, the Jets. He inherited an awful rush defense, so the replacement of most of the linebacking corps is not unreasonable. Sean Jones was a pretty productive safety, so replacing him with a guy who's been on three teams in four years in Elam is a little suspect to me.

Mangini also inherited a quarterback controversy, and he's done nothing to dissipate it. Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are both vying for the starting spot, though it's difficult to know exactly why. Braylon Edwards drops more balls than puberty, Winslow is a thousand miles away, and the rest of the Browns' receivers are either unproven or overproven. Between all of them someone should pan out, but it may take a while. Still, a young and talented offensive line got even better, now that they're entering the Secret World of Alex Mack (look it up).

Projected 2009 record: 6-10

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Key Additions: DE Evander "Ziggy" Hood, WR Shaun McDonald, CB Keiwan Ratliff
Key Subtractions: CB Bryant McFadden, WR Nate Washington

As always, the Steelers continue to build from within. Each of their projected defensive starters was on the team last year, which should mean trouble once again for opposing offenses. It'll also spell disaster for those of us who wish for the Steelers' demise every year. I think that, if the Steelers hadn't won their two recent Super Bowls, I'd probably be fine with them, and even tolerant of their fans. It's much easier to appreciate a team that has a great development plan and fields very good teams when they don't win it all. I'm like the opposite of a bandwagon fan.

Back to the team, pretty much the entire offense returns as well. Rashard Mendenhall should be recovered from his mid-season injury against the Ravens, and they replaced Nate Washington with Shaun McDonald, two players with similar capabilities. Washington is a larger target, but between McDonald and second-year player Limas Sweed, Washington's production should be more than recovered. It's worth mentioning that they went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl even though Ben Roethlisberger had a bad season (don't argue, 17 TDs and 15 INTs, 46 sacks and 14 fumbles is bad). If Roethlisberger can bounce back, take care of the ball a little better, and find the end zone a little more frequently, another trip to the Super Bowl is definitely within their reach.

It's interesting to see two very different but successful teams like the Patriots and Steelers build their teams in very different ways. The Steelers draft players who fit their mold, and take the time to develop them behind veterans. They hardly ever pay top dollar, and continue to replace veterans with young players in-house. The Patriots find under-valued players around the league like Wes Welker and Fred Taylor, and plug them into a potent offensive machine.

Projected 2009 record: 13-3

2009 AFC East Preview

And now, we move on to the jerk conference. I'm not even going to apologize or mitigate my personal opinions. The AFC is for jerks.

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills (7-9)
Key Additions: WR Terrell Owens, DE Aaron Maybin, G Eric Wood
Key Subtractions: CB Jabari Greer, QB J.P. Losman

The "key subtraction" of Losman is really only relevant because it solidifies Trent Edwards as the starting quarterback, and eliminates any potential for an early season quarterback controversy. Edwards should enjoy his best season ever, partly because of maturity, and partly because Owens just makes quarterbacks better. Hate him all you want, but his physical dominance over opponents has helped every quarterback he's played with (Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo). Also, Lee Evans has always struck me as a very good #2 receiver, but not capable of being a #1. The addition of T.O. puts Evans where I believe he can flourish.

With Leodis McKelvin and Donte Whitner, the Bills have got the makings of a pretty good secondary. First round pick Maybin is a Penn State product, which doesn't exactly bode well (LaVar Arrington, Courtney Brown, Ki-Jana Carter), but maybe he and fellow Nittany Lion Paul Posluszny can generate some more pass rush. Doing that could dramatically improve what was just an average defense last year.

Projected 2009 record: 8-8

Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Key Additions: CB Vontae Davis, QB Pat White, C Jake Grove, DE/LB Jason Taylor, S Gibril Wilson
Key Subtractions: DE Vonnie Holliday, S Renaldo Hill

The Dolphins seem to have only improved, and they acquired a perfect weapon for their wildcat formation in Pat White. There are always questions about Ronnie Brown's health and Ricky Williams' commitment, but they're both ready to play come opening kickoff, and both have shown themselves to be solid at one point or another. The maturation of their young receivers (Ted Ginn Jr., Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo) will likely determine how far this team goes.

The Jason Taylor experiment in Washington was a disaster, but he's allegedly back and ready to play for the Dolphins. Do I think it was just a ploy for Taylor to get paid the remainder of his contract and come back to Miami after a year? Of course I do. I'm an emotional, foolish Redskins fan, and Jason Taylor broke my heart.

Anyways, Gibril Wilson is pretty good and Vonnie Holliday's best days are behind him.

Projected 2009 record: 10-6

New England Patriots (11-5)
Key Additions: DB Patrick Chung, CB Shawn Springs, RB Fred Taylor, CB Leigh Bodden
Key Subtractions: QB Matt Cassel, WR Jabar Gaffney, LB Mike Vrabel, CB Ellis Hobbs, CB Deltha O'Neal, S Rodney Harrison

The return of Tom Brady from last year's week 1 season-ending injury is far and away the story with the most mainstream appeal regarding the Patriots, but I would venture to say that the wholesale changes to the secondary are at least as important to this team's success. I don't think I'm alone when I say I don't expect the Patriots to set more offensive records this season as they did in 2007, so the defense will have to at least play occasionally. Replacing Hobbs and O'Neal with Bodden and Springs is most certainly a downgrade, and it'll be interesting to see how the defense works without Mike Vrabel as an anchor for the first time since 2003.

Running back will once again be a question mark for the Patriots, as they'll be boasting perhaps the league's only five-headed monster committee. Laurence Maroney is the favorite to emerge as the featured back, but Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis were all productive at times for the Patriots last year, and they didn't bring Fred Taylor into town to ride the pine. With their talent distribution, though, I'd be surprised if the Patriots weren't back to their old ways of throwing the ball 40 times a game, which favors Faulk, the best pass-catcher of the bunch. Regardless, Randy Moss and Wes Welker will once again be the peanut butter and jelly of an elite receiver sandwich. Try not to think of that in a gross way.

Projected 2009 record: 12-4

New York Jets (9-7)
Key Additions: QB Mark Sanchez, LB Bart Scott, CB Lito Sheppard, RB Shonn Greene, S Jim Leonhard, DE Marques Douglas
Key Subtractions: QB Brett Favre, WR Laveranues Coles, LB Eric Barton, CB Hank Poteat

New head coach Rex Ryan certainly didn't waste any time revamping his defense, bringing Scott, Leonhard, and Douglas from his old team in Baltimore. Eric Barton was the team's leading tackler last season, but Scott should slide comfortably into that role this year. Lito Sheppard was the third wheel in Philly, but he'll be a starter and a lynchpin for the Jets' defense this year.

I know, bla bla bla, defense, who cares? The biggest change this season comes at the biggest position: quarterback. Favre's brief stint in the Big Apple is over, and the Jets traded the farm for Mark Sanchez, who I'll now refer to as "Magic Beans" Sanchez. He could grow into a giant beanstalk that leads to a goose who lays golden eggs. Or it could just be a shortcut to a giant who'll squash the hopes of Jets fans. One thing is for sure though: as goes Sanchez for the next four years, so go the Jets. This year, that means growing pains and patience.

Projected 2009 record: 6-10

2009 NFC West Preview

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Key Additions: RB Chris Wells, CB Bryant McFadden
Key Subtractions: RB Edgerrin James, RB J.J. Arrington, CB Rod Hood, DE Antonio Smith

The Cardinals boasted one of the strongest offenses in the league last year, particularly with regards to their passing game. Swapping Beanie Wells in for Edge should improve their rushing attack, but it's unclear as to how the carries will actually be split up between Wells and Tim Hightower. Anquan Boldin is still in Arizona for now, but he's been unhappy for a while. Someone needs to hook up the Panthers and Cardinals so they can swap Peppers and Muhammad for Boldin and Calais Campbell. Oh well.

Speaking of the Cardinals defense, not great. They gave up the fifth most points in football last season, and allowed a 44% third down conversion rate. That's how you end up 9-7, even if you do make it to the Super Bowl. McFadden is good, but he wasn't the reason the Steelers had such a great defense, and his addition will have a limited positive impact. Unless the aforementioned Campbell progresses considerably, I have a tough time thinking the Cardinals will roll over the NFC West again.

Projected 2009 record: 7-9

San Francisco 49ers (7-9)
Key Additions: WR Michael Crabtree, RB Glen Coffee, CB Dre' Bly
Key Subtractions: RB DeShaun Foster, WR Bryant Johnson

I used to have some faith in the 49ers. I used to think they were a year of maturity away from competing for the NFC West title. Used to. When I really look at this team, they just don't have a lot to get excited about. Shaun Hill, a popular sleeper pick in fantasy football, had at least two turnovers in three of his eight starts. Crabtree isn't even signed yet. Frank Gore and Coffee could be a nice one-two punch, but if we've learned anything from watching football, it's that one-dimensional teams without excellent defenses tend to lose a lot of games (see Rams, circa the past two years).

Bly has probably still got something in the tank, but don't expect him to be the difference here. The defense would be adequate on a strong offensive team, but for San Francisco, you're just looking at another dismal season. I don't see a way for them to take any steps forward this year, no matter how many times Coach Mike Singletary shows his wang.

Projected 2009 record: 5-11

Seattle Seahawks (4-12)
Key Additions: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, LB Aaron Curry, WR Deon Butler, DT Colin Cole
Key Subtractions: RB Maurice Morris, WR Bobby Engram, WR Koren Robinson, LB Julian Peterson, DT Rocky Bernard

Matt Hasselbeck was clipped by the injury bug and was generally ineffective when he did play. But he's got a legitimately dangerous receiver for perhaps the first time in his career, so there are reasons to be optimistic. Engram and Robinson were the beneficiaries of opportunity and still combined for less than 80 catches and 1,000 yards receiving, both of which Houshmandzadeh should surpass on his own. I only mentioned Deon Butler as a key addition because he went to Penn State. It's the very least I can do for a guy who was always good for a 40-yard catch...literally, the very least I can do.

Aaron Curry has #1 overall talent, but fell to the Seahawks at #4 in the draft because he plays linebacker, and linebackers and running backs just don't go as high as other positions. He should step in and immediately make a positive impact for this defense, which is good, because they were awful last year. They gave up the 3rd-most total yards per game, and the most passing yards per game. They ranked 25th in both points scored and points allowed. Still, part of that comes from an inept offense that should be better this season. I expect improvement all around.

Projected 2009 record: 10-6

St. Louis Rams (2-14)
Key Additions: OT Jason Smith, LB James Laurinaitis, WR Laurent Robinson
Key Subtractions: WR Torry Holt, LB Pisa Tinoisamoa

The Rams lost their top tackler in Tinoisamoa, but with a defense was 31st in points allowed, it's debatable as to whether or not a loss from that group is actually a detriment. More important will be the development of second-year player Chris Long, and whether Laurinaitis can conjure images of his father, Road Warrior Animal. I generally don't root for former Buckeyes, but there's an exception clause for the progeny of former professional wrestlers.

Steven Jackson is, and has always been, a wrecking ball, but without some support from the passing game, he'll see way too many 8- and 9-man boxes. Torry Holt may only be a shadow of his former self, but this receiving corps could ill afford to lose any talent. Then again, maybe the 2004 Randy McMichael will show up, and everything will be alright.

Probably not, though.

Projected 2009 record: 4-12

2009 NFC South Preview

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Key Additions: TE Tony Gonzalez, LB Mike Peterson, DT Peria Jerry
Key Subtractions: LB Keith Brooking, CB Domonique Foxworth

What a story the Falcons were last year. Despite being under the shadow of Michael Vick, they found a way to succeed. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Michael Turner became one of the best QB-WR-RB tandems in football, and they went to the playoffs. Now they've added ultra-professional Tony Gonzalez, giving Ryan another weapon, particularly in the red zone.

Brooking was a key cog to this defense, but Peterson should be able to help fill that gap. The most important position on the team is probably defensive end, where Jamaal Anderson has to prove he was worth the 8th overall pick in 2007. He's had just two sacks in his two years in the NFL, and if the Falcons are going to take another step forward, they'll need Anderson to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The talent is there, though, so I like his chances.

Projected 2009 record: 11-5

Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Key Additions: DE Everette Brown
Key Subtractions: KR/PR Mark Jones, CB Ken Lucas

The Panthers have become a classic Pittsburgh Steelers team, with a strong, punishing defense and a power running attack. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are perhaps the best 1-2 punch in football, and if they kick off 2009 like they finished 2008, good luck to anyone trying to stop them. The defense returns just about everyone, and the Panthers drafted Brown as a potential successor when Peppers inevitably leaves after this season. Never has a player been so frequently talked about as leaving a team and consistently returning. You have to think this season, barring a Super Bowl run, will be Peppers' last in the tobacco state.

I was surprised, though, that the Panthers didn't try to do something about their receivers in the offseason. Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad combined for 2,344 yards receiving, and the next highest total was from tight end Dante Rosario with 209. Dwayne Jarrett is going to need to take a considerable step forward to keep the "Bust" sign from flashing. Of course, how strong do your receivers need to be when you average 4.8 yards per carry?

Projected 2009 record: 11-5

New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Key Additions: CB Malcolm Jenkins, CB Jabari Greer, S Darren Sharper
Key Subtractions: RB Deuce McAllister, CB Jason David

Not surprisingly, very few changes were made to the offensive juggernaut that is the New Orleans Saints. McAllister was allowed to depart, but really he was gone by mid-season last year anyways. Word is that Sean Payton loves running back Pierre Thomas, and Reggie Bush will still get reps as the tailback. Between Bush, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, and Lance Moore, Brees has one of the better receiving corps in football, and he's shown he knows just how to exploit that. Whether that will translate to victories is anyone's guess.

I put Jason David as a key subtraction, but it's also a form of addition by subtraction. David led the team with five interceptions, but got beat week after week for huge plays and touchdowns. He had become a liability, and they let him just last week after another poor performance in the preseason. Darren Sharper should stabilize the secondary, and keep the Saints out of at least a couple of the shootouts they always seem to get into.

Projected 2009 record: 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
Key Additions: TE Kellen Winslow Jr., RB Derrick Ward, QB Josh Freeman, QB Byron Leftwich
Key Subtractions: QB Jeff Garcia, RB Warrick Dunn, LB Cato June, LB Derrick Brooks

It's the end of an era in Tampa Bay, with Derrick Brooks' tenure in Tampa ending relatively unceremoniously (by the way, if you want to call in to your local sports radio station and say something, you'll generally get positive feedback if you say your team should sign Brooks). No one was really added to replace Brooks, so Tampa Bay is looking at youngster Quincy Black to fill in the hole left by Brooks.

The departure that will probably have the greatest impact on the Buccaneers' season, though is Jeff Garcia's. The quarterback job will fall to Luke McCown, Freeman, or Leftwich, none of whom should get you excited. I like the additions of Ward and Winslow, but it's a shame that Garcia is gone, because he actually would've been a pretty good fit for those new players. This is likely going to be a tough year for the Bucs, so I say throw Freeman in there and let's see what he can do.

Projected 2009 record: 4-12