- NBA conference finals matchups
- Who to hold on to and who to cut loose in early fantasy baseball
Monday, May 19, 2008
Show Scheduled: May 20, 2008
We'll be doing a full Joe & Joe Sports episode tomorrow night, starting around 9:30. Potential topics:
The Washington Wizards Should Trade Gilbert Arenas
Gilbert Arenas is a great player. Joe told you all about how well he's played, and that he's still relatively early in his career. And he wasn't really wrong in describing him to you. He gave you the facts, and the facts clearly state that Arenas is a top tier player.
But he's got to go.
First things first, let's deal with the basketball side of things. Arenas has averaged 27.7 points per game over his past three full seasons (not including this past year, when he only started 8 games). Arenas also averaged 20.3 field goal attempts per game during that stretch. As a comparison, Allen Iverson, the premier scoring point guard in basketball, averaged 30.2 points per game and 23.4 attempts per game. I see Iverson as a more valid comparison for Arenas than Kobe Bryant, since Kobe is a legitimate two-guard, and Arenas is supposed to be a point guard.
And there's the first problem I have with Arenas. He's covering a position that, to be fair to everyone, he doesn't play. He's most effective individually when he's got the ball in his hands, but he's not much of a distributor. Arenas' career high assists per game is 6.1, lower than Iverson's average in any of the past five years. Stephon Marbury, an alleged team-killer because of his lack of a willingness to pass the ball, played for a decade before his assists per game average dropped below 6.1 per game. I'm not saying that Marbury was a better player in his first ten years than Arenas is today....or am I?
The real problem for me is that the Wizards have to position him as at least the unofficial point guard, because if he doesn't have the ball in his hands, he's not doing what you're paying him to do. But what good is a guy playing point guard if he's jacking up 20 shots a game? Find me an NBA championship team that's had a point guard like that in the last 20 years. The closest I could find was Isiah Thomas in the 1989-90 season, when he averaged 18.4 points and 16.3 attempts. But he also had 9.4 assists per game, 50% more than Arenas' best season.
The thought that they had a point guard may have also led to the Wizards picking Oleksiy Pecherov (with 319 total NBA minutes) over Rajon Rondo in the 2006 NBA draft. Rondo is obviously no Gilbert Arenas, but as I've suggested, the Wizards don't need an Arenas.
"Injury-prone" may not yet be a hat that Arenas wears, but after last year where he missed the playoffs altogether, and this year when he played 94 minutes in 4 games and then shut himself down, it may be time to get fitted. Joe says it's part of the same injury; maybe so, but if it's lingered for over a year now, at what point does it become a legitimate concern? Do you have to hit Mark Prior status and miss multiple seasons before you make a conclusion? Taking a chance on an inevitable max contract on a guy whose last NBA action was pulling himself from a playoff series because of injury is risky. Anyone who says otherwise is a fool.
Now, let's take a step back from Arenas' numbers and look at the big picture: the Wizards haven't won anything with this crew. They've lost three straight first round matchups against the Cavaliers (to my dismay and Joe's delight), including the 2005-06 series when Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison were all healthy and effective, averaging 71.7 points between the three of them during the series. If they can't win with their "big three," then why would you want to keep them together? For a while, just getting into the playoffs was a treat for Washington basketball fans, but that time has passed. We want to see a team moving forward, getting better, and positioning itself to take the next step towards the NBA finals (I'm not delusional; just reaching the finals is a great achievemnt for 90% of the teams in the NBA). So if these guys can't do it, we've got to get some guys who can.
And how's this for a transition, getting rid of Gilbert Arenas gives the Wizards the opportunity to get some other guys. Arenas deserves and will get a max contract, and as many of us know, you get an extra year and some more money if you sign with your current team (which is the reason you see sign-and-trade deals). So, for Arenas to get a true max contract, he'll have to sign with the Wizards and then get traded to another team. (The sign-and-trade concept also allows teams without cap space to acquire free agents, as a result of the NBA's salary cap rules).
This could be a great situation for the Wizards, as the one thing Joe and I do agree on is that Jamison is not an elite frontcourt player, which means the Wizards don't have one. Among the high-caliber frontcourt players who could be available in their own sign-and-trades: Jermaine O'Neal, Elton Brand, Emeka Okafor, as well as other potential free agents like Baron Davis, Ron Artest, Andre Iguodala, Shawn Marion, and Josh Smith. Are all of those players more valuable than Arenas? No; in fact, it's debateable as to whether or not any of them are more valuable than Arenas. But I'd rather have at least a couple of them, like Brand, Marion, and Smith.
Would a sign-and-trade actually get the Wizards anything, though? I mean, Rashard Lewis' sign-and-trade netted the Sonics just a second round pick. But Joe Johnson was traded for Boris Diaw and two first round draft picks, and Kenyon Martin was traded for three future first round picks. Given Arenas' tremendous talent, it's fair to expect that the Wizards would be able to work something out where they get solid value in return.
Additionally, even after a sign-and-trade, the Wizards would likely still be a few million dollars under the salary cap, giving them the option to pursue another mid-level role player, such as an energy forward or a bench shooter. That opportunity to shift the talent around from small to big is a rare one, and I think it's one that Washington has got to take advantage of. Especially if the Clippers are as dumb as they look and would be willing to part with Brand for Arenas.
As I said, the point that Joe made about Jamison not being an elite frontcourt player is correct, but let me give you some more information about this player that Joe was so quick to bash. As he said, Jamison was one of four 20-10 guys in basketball last year, and he did sport by far the lowest FG% of any of them. But Jamison doesn't shoot from under the basket, he shoots jumpers and 3-pointers. Shaq's field goal percentage has always been higher than Rashard Lewis', that doesn't mean that Lewis is innately worse than Shaq. Jamison is a rare rebounder who also shoots from the outside. In fact, you could add up the 3-pointers made by the top 23 other rebounders in basketball and not equal the total 3s made by Jamison. He also had more steals than any of the other top 22 rebounders. So let's give him a little credit.
Additionally, as Jamison is a Wizards' free agent and has spent more than 3 years on the team, the Wizards can re-sign him at any price up to a max contract if they so desire. So the choice isn't so much between Jamison or Arenas; it's between Jamison and Arenas or Jamison and whoever they could get for Arenas.
Now, try this fantasy on for size. Arenas gets traded for Brand. Starting lineup is Antonio Daniels at point, Butler as a tall shooting guard, Jamison as a tall small forward, Brand as a heavy power forward, and Brendan Haywood in the pivot. I'm not saying that's the best starting lineup in the league, but I am saying that's an extremely balanced squad in terms of both offense/defense and inside/outside. I like that five a lot better than Arenas, DeShawn Stevenson, Butler, a smallish Jamison, and Haywood. Stevenson, Nick Young, Darius Songaila, and Etan Thomas would make up a nice bench, and you'd have a nice target in the draft/free agency of a backup point guard.
Gilbert Arenas has done fine work for the Wizards. But for this team to take the next step, they've got to move Agent Zero.
But he's got to go.
First things first, let's deal with the basketball side of things. Arenas has averaged 27.7 points per game over his past three full seasons (not including this past year, when he only started 8 games). Arenas also averaged 20.3 field goal attempts per game during that stretch. As a comparison, Allen Iverson, the premier scoring point guard in basketball, averaged 30.2 points per game and 23.4 attempts per game. I see Iverson as a more valid comparison for Arenas than Kobe Bryant, since Kobe is a legitimate two-guard, and Arenas is supposed to be a point guard.
And there's the first problem I have with Arenas. He's covering a position that, to be fair to everyone, he doesn't play. He's most effective individually when he's got the ball in his hands, but he's not much of a distributor. Arenas' career high assists per game is 6.1, lower than Iverson's average in any of the past five years. Stephon Marbury, an alleged team-killer because of his lack of a willingness to pass the ball, played for a decade before his assists per game average dropped below 6.1 per game. I'm not saying that Marbury was a better player in his first ten years than Arenas is today....or am I?
The real problem for me is that the Wizards have to position him as at least the unofficial point guard, because if he doesn't have the ball in his hands, he's not doing what you're paying him to do. But what good is a guy playing point guard if he's jacking up 20 shots a game? Find me an NBA championship team that's had a point guard like that in the last 20 years. The closest I could find was Isiah Thomas in the 1989-90 season, when he averaged 18.4 points and 16.3 attempts. But he also had 9.4 assists per game, 50% more than Arenas' best season.
The thought that they had a point guard may have also led to the Wizards picking Oleksiy Pecherov (with 319 total NBA minutes) over Rajon Rondo in the 2006 NBA draft. Rondo is obviously no Gilbert Arenas, but as I've suggested, the Wizards don't need an Arenas.
"Injury-prone" may not yet be a hat that Arenas wears, but after last year where he missed the playoffs altogether, and this year when he played 94 minutes in 4 games and then shut himself down, it may be time to get fitted. Joe says it's part of the same injury; maybe so, but if it's lingered for over a year now, at what point does it become a legitimate concern? Do you have to hit Mark Prior status and miss multiple seasons before you make a conclusion? Taking a chance on an inevitable max contract on a guy whose last NBA action was pulling himself from a playoff series because of injury is risky. Anyone who says otherwise is a fool.
Now, let's take a step back from Arenas' numbers and look at the big picture: the Wizards haven't won anything with this crew. They've lost three straight first round matchups against the Cavaliers (to my dismay and Joe's delight), including the 2005-06 series when Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison were all healthy and effective, averaging 71.7 points between the three of them during the series. If they can't win with their "big three," then why would you want to keep them together? For a while, just getting into the playoffs was a treat for Washington basketball fans, but that time has passed. We want to see a team moving forward, getting better, and positioning itself to take the next step towards the NBA finals (I'm not delusional; just reaching the finals is a great achievemnt for 90% of the teams in the NBA). So if these guys can't do it, we've got to get some guys who can.
And how's this for a transition, getting rid of Gilbert Arenas gives the Wizards the opportunity to get some other guys. Arenas deserves and will get a max contract, and as many of us know, you get an extra year and some more money if you sign with your current team (which is the reason you see sign-and-trade deals). So, for Arenas to get a true max contract, he'll have to sign with the Wizards and then get traded to another team. (The sign-and-trade concept also allows teams without cap space to acquire free agents, as a result of the NBA's salary cap rules).
This could be a great situation for the Wizards, as the one thing Joe and I do agree on is that Jamison is not an elite frontcourt player, which means the Wizards don't have one. Among the high-caliber frontcourt players who could be available in their own sign-and-trades: Jermaine O'Neal, Elton Brand, Emeka Okafor, as well as other potential free agents like Baron Davis, Ron Artest, Andre Iguodala, Shawn Marion, and Josh Smith. Are all of those players more valuable than Arenas? No; in fact, it's debateable as to whether or not any of them are more valuable than Arenas. But I'd rather have at least a couple of them, like Brand, Marion, and Smith.
Would a sign-and-trade actually get the Wizards anything, though? I mean, Rashard Lewis' sign-and-trade netted the Sonics just a second round pick. But Joe Johnson was traded for Boris Diaw and two first round draft picks, and Kenyon Martin was traded for three future first round picks. Given Arenas' tremendous talent, it's fair to expect that the Wizards would be able to work something out where they get solid value in return.
Additionally, even after a sign-and-trade, the Wizards would likely still be a few million dollars under the salary cap, giving them the option to pursue another mid-level role player, such as an energy forward or a bench shooter. That opportunity to shift the talent around from small to big is a rare one, and I think it's one that Washington has got to take advantage of. Especially if the Clippers are as dumb as they look and would be willing to part with Brand for Arenas.
As I said, the point that Joe made about Jamison not being an elite frontcourt player is correct, but let me give you some more information about this player that Joe was so quick to bash. As he said, Jamison was one of four 20-10 guys in basketball last year, and he did sport by far the lowest FG% of any of them. But Jamison doesn't shoot from under the basket, he shoots jumpers and 3-pointers. Shaq's field goal percentage has always been higher than Rashard Lewis', that doesn't mean that Lewis is innately worse than Shaq. Jamison is a rare rebounder who also shoots from the outside. In fact, you could add up the 3-pointers made by the top 23 other rebounders in basketball and not equal the total 3s made by Jamison. He also had more steals than any of the other top 22 rebounders. So let's give him a little credit.
Additionally, as Jamison is a Wizards' free agent and has spent more than 3 years on the team, the Wizards can re-sign him at any price up to a max contract if they so desire. So the choice isn't so much between Jamison or Arenas; it's between Jamison and Arenas or Jamison and whoever they could get for Arenas.
Now, try this fantasy on for size. Arenas gets traded for Brand. Starting lineup is Antonio Daniels at point, Butler as a tall shooting guard, Jamison as a tall small forward, Brand as a heavy power forward, and Brendan Haywood in the pivot. I'm not saying that's the best starting lineup in the league, but I am saying that's an extremely balanced squad in terms of both offense/defense and inside/outside. I like that five a lot better than Arenas, DeShawn Stevenson, Butler, a smallish Jamison, and Haywood. Stevenson, Nick Young, Darius Songaila, and Etan Thomas would make up a nice bench, and you'd have a nice target in the draft/free agency of a backup point guard.
Gilbert Arenas has done fine work for the Wizards. But for this team to take the next step, they've got to move Agent Zero.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
The Washington Wizards Should Keep Gilbert Arenas
Why should the Washington Wizards maintain the services of Gilbert Arenas? The short answer is 29.3, as in 29.3 points per game, Gilbert Arenas scoring average in 2005-2006. That is an elite number. How elite? Well only three players have topped it since 2005-2006. Maybe you have heard of those players, it's Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson and Lebron James, that's it. In three seasons only Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson and Lebron James have gone higher than 29.3 ppg. Plain and simple, Gilbert Arenas is an elite scorer in the NBA.
There are two arguments that one can use against the Wizards keeping Agent Zero, the first one is that Arenas is over the hill, injury prone or just can't score 30 points a game for entire season again. The idea that Gilbert is past his prime is laughable. Kobe is three and a half years older than Arenas and nobody is telling the 2007-2008 MVP that he is past his prime. Also, Kobe has had three of his top five scoring seasons since turning 27, coincidently the age Arenas will be next year. Gilbert may not be Kobe Bryant, but he certainly isn't over the hill.
Is Gilbert Arenas injury prone? Maybe. The MCL injury that ended his 2006-2007 injury lingered into 2007 eventually causing him to have surgery, missing most of the 2007-2008 injury. Really only sounds like one injury to me, so rather than brand the guy with the "injury prone" label, let's just see how next season goes after Arenas has had an entire offseason to recover.
Can Arenas score maintain a 30 ppg scoring average again? Looks like it. After the aforementioned 29.3, Gilbert scored at a 28.5 ppg clip in 2006-2007 and hasn't been fully healthy since. His 19.3 in 2007-2008 looks like a pretty big drop off, but looks can be deceiving. In the nine games that Arenas came off the bench for late in the 2008 season, he scored at a rate of 0.57 points per minute of floor time. While this is down from his impressive 0.72 pt/min in 2006-2007 and 0.69 pt/min in 2005-2006, it's certainly not bad for a guy that wasn't even close to 100%. In fact, over the course of a 40 minute game, it's only the difference of six points, something I can easily see Arenas overcoming when he returns to full health. Even if Gilbert only comes back to score at a 0.57 pt/min clip, that would have probably put him somewhere around the 8th best scorer in the NBA, somewhere around Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Redd. If Michael Redd is the ground floor, it's definitely worth it for the Wizards to see how high the Gilbert Arenas elevator can go.
The second argument is that the Wizards would be better off building around Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison and developing Roger Mason Jr. or Deshawn Stevenson into the combo guard that Arenas is. Caron Butler is under contract until 2011-2012, so he is definitely part of the Wizards long-term plans. The debate is between Antwan Jamison (currently a free agent) and Gilbert Arenas (a free agent if he options out of the last year of his contract, which he has indicated he will do). The choice here is Arenas. While Jamison is coming off a 20 point, 10 rebound season (matched by only 3 other players in the NBA this season: Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson and Carlos Boozer) he isn't an elite NBA big man. Yet somebody is going to pay him like an elite big man, probably somewhere near $20 million per season. Jamison shot a miserable 43.6% from the floor this year (Howard, Jefferson and Boozer were all over 50%). In fact, of the 18 players that averaged at least nine rebounds per game in 2007-2008, only Zydrunas Ilgauskas had a lower point to shot attempt ratio than Jamison. This puts a little tarnish on Antwan's 20 ppg. While Jamison's rebounding ability is legit (although playing more than 1 min/game more than any of the other guys averaging at least 9 reb/game), he is historically known as a guy that doesn't play a lot of defense, something you would ideally like from a power forward. So it comes down to a choice, the Wizards can either pay for an elite scorer or a defensively challenged, poor shooting power forward.
The combination of Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas will pick up most of Jamison's scoring load, while the developing, defensive-minded Andray Blatche and the returning Eton Thomas can clear the boards and provide a toughness down low that the Wizards haven't had in some time. This is a much better solution than retaining Jamison (with his aforementioned flaws) and having a gaping hole at point guard. If you haven't been convinced yet, consider that the 2007-2008 Wizards team was basically the Jamison/Butler option, and how did that work out?
There are two arguments that one can use against the Wizards keeping Agent Zero, the first one is that Arenas is over the hill, injury prone or just can't score 30 points a game for entire season again. The idea that Gilbert is past his prime is laughable. Kobe is three and a half years older than Arenas and nobody is telling the 2007-2008 MVP that he is past his prime. Also, Kobe has had three of his top five scoring seasons since turning 27, coincidently the age Arenas will be next year. Gilbert may not be Kobe Bryant, but he certainly isn't over the hill.
Is Gilbert Arenas injury prone? Maybe. The MCL injury that ended his 2006-2007 injury lingered into 2007 eventually causing him to have surgery, missing most of the 2007-2008 injury. Really only sounds like one injury to me, so rather than brand the guy with the "injury prone" label, let's just see how next season goes after Arenas has had an entire offseason to recover.
Can Arenas score maintain a 30 ppg scoring average again? Looks like it. After the aforementioned 29.3, Gilbert scored at a 28.5 ppg clip in 2006-2007 and hasn't been fully healthy since. His 19.3 in 2007-2008 looks like a pretty big drop off, but looks can be deceiving. In the nine games that Arenas came off the bench for late in the 2008 season, he scored at a rate of 0.57 points per minute of floor time. While this is down from his impressive 0.72 pt/min in 2006-2007 and 0.69 pt/min in 2005-2006, it's certainly not bad for a guy that wasn't even close to 100%. In fact, over the course of a 40 minute game, it's only the difference of six points, something I can easily see Arenas overcoming when he returns to full health. Even if Gilbert only comes back to score at a 0.57 pt/min clip, that would have probably put him somewhere around the 8th best scorer in the NBA, somewhere around Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Redd. If Michael Redd is the ground floor, it's definitely worth it for the Wizards to see how high the Gilbert Arenas elevator can go.
The second argument is that the Wizards would be better off building around Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison and developing Roger Mason Jr. or Deshawn Stevenson into the combo guard that Arenas is. Caron Butler is under contract until 2011-2012, so he is definitely part of the Wizards long-term plans. The debate is between Antwan Jamison (currently a free agent) and Gilbert Arenas (a free agent if he options out of the last year of his contract, which he has indicated he will do). The choice here is Arenas. While Jamison is coming off a 20 point, 10 rebound season (matched by only 3 other players in the NBA this season: Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson and Carlos Boozer) he isn't an elite NBA big man. Yet somebody is going to pay him like an elite big man, probably somewhere near $20 million per season. Jamison shot a miserable 43.6% from the floor this year (Howard, Jefferson and Boozer were all over 50%). In fact, of the 18 players that averaged at least nine rebounds per game in 2007-2008, only Zydrunas Ilgauskas had a lower point to shot attempt ratio than Jamison. This puts a little tarnish on Antwan's 20 ppg. While Jamison's rebounding ability is legit (although playing more than 1 min/game more than any of the other guys averaging at least 9 reb/game), he is historically known as a guy that doesn't play a lot of defense, something you would ideally like from a power forward. So it comes down to a choice, the Wizards can either pay for an elite scorer or a defensively challenged, poor shooting power forward.
The combination of Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas will pick up most of Jamison's scoring load, while the developing, defensive-minded Andray Blatche and the returning Eton Thomas can clear the boards and provide a toughness down low that the Wizards haven't had in some time. This is a much better solution than retaining Jamison (with his aforementioned flaws) and having a gaping hole at point guard. If you haven't been convinced yet, consider that the 2007-2008 Wizards team was basically the Jamison/Butler option, and how did that work out?
Update: Cleveland Browns Draft Analysis
It looks like the Browns didn't have a pick until the fourth round, so, gracious and generous as he is, my partner has decided it would be a more valuable use of his time to pick a fight with yours truly about whether or not the Wizards should sign & trade Gilbert Arenas than to comment on whether Beau Bell (LB, UNLV) can solidify a rushing defense that gave up 130 yards per game on the ground. My guess is he can't, but best of luck to him.
Joe's hoops post should be up tonight or tomorrow.
Joe's hoops post should be up tonight or tomorrow.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Washington Redskins Draft Recap
Hold on, before you go crazy and start expecting draft recaps for every team, stop right there. I'll be doing a draft recap on my hometown Washington Redskins, and my partner will try to get you some analysis on his hometown Cleveland Browns. For everyone else, you'll have to do your own research.
FIRST DAY
Round 1: The Skins traded out of the first round, and while they didn't have any picks, I did want to say that trading down may have been a mistake. They only acquired later picks this year, and no picks for next year, which would have been a better call, I believe. They were able to get some solid prospects later in the draft, and I'm not suggesting that they should have necessarily kept the pick, but I think they should have pursued future commodities, not just more, worse commodities.
Round 2: This is where the Skins made their hay. They acquired Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, two wide receivers who could develop into #1 guys, and a tight end in Fred Davis who has some attitude concerns but has definite playmaker ability. I've heard a lot of local commentators say that Washington made a mistake in drafting three receivers and not taking a lineman early in this draft, and I've heard national commentators commend the Skins for a great draft and give them the highest rank in the NFC. I think the truth, as always, lies somewhere in between. It might have been a mistake to focus so much on one aspect of the team early on, but it's fair to say that they believed that Davis and Kelly were the best players on the board at the point where each of them were drafted.
Worth noting also is that Washington ended the season with the 20th rated points per game average in football, placing them as the second worst among playoff teams. For anyone who watched the Skins last year, I don't have to tell you how lethargic the offense looked 95% of the time. Adding playmakers in the passing game was definitely a valid priority for this team, and you take them when you can get them. I don't fault the Redskins for seeing a need and attempting to address it.
There was a bit of an outcry that the defensive line needed help getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but the numbers reflect a very solid defense last year. They had the 11th best points defense, and the 8th best yards defense. The seven teams ahead of them were Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, New England, Tennessee, Baltimore, and the New York Giants, all of whom sport notoriously effective defenses. So while certainly the Skins could use a premier pass rusher, who couldn't? When it came down to it, a premier pass rusher wasn't available at those picks, and I'd be much more unhappy with my team if they made bad value picks that happened to fit one of multiple points of need. I'll take a few chances in the passing game with three guys who were all looked at as potential first round picks at one point in this pre-draft season.
SECOND DAY
I don't know much about most of these second day picks, but the Skins did make a splash by taking an early Heisman hopeful in Colt Brennan. I can't say for sure what he's going to look like in the pros, but in the sixth round, a guy who sported a college career 167.6 passer rating and completed 70% of his passes is a worthwhile risk. I think generally the second day quarterbacks (Dennis Dixon, John David Booty, Josh Johnson, Brennan) may look at least as good as the first day guys (Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Brian Brohm) when all is said and done. Watching the development of young quarterbacks is always one of the more interesting storylines of a draft to look back at.
So that's the situation. I like the way the Skins draft looks on paper right now, and that's the only way we can look at it at this point. It'll be very interesting to see what sort of playing time each of those three early picks gets, with Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle-El, and Chris Cooley locked in as the starters. Don't be surprised if that's one of our main topics come NFL preview radio show time.
FIRST DAY
Round 1: The Skins traded out of the first round, and while they didn't have any picks, I did want to say that trading down may have been a mistake. They only acquired later picks this year, and no picks for next year, which would have been a better call, I believe. They were able to get some solid prospects later in the draft, and I'm not suggesting that they should have necessarily kept the pick, but I think they should have pursued future commodities, not just more, worse commodities.
Round 2: This is where the Skins made their hay. They acquired Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, two wide receivers who could develop into #1 guys, and a tight end in Fred Davis who has some attitude concerns but has definite playmaker ability. I've heard a lot of local commentators say that Washington made a mistake in drafting three receivers and not taking a lineman early in this draft, and I've heard national commentators commend the Skins for a great draft and give them the highest rank in the NFC. I think the truth, as always, lies somewhere in between. It might have been a mistake to focus so much on one aspect of the team early on, but it's fair to say that they believed that Davis and Kelly were the best players on the board at the point where each of them were drafted.
Worth noting also is that Washington ended the season with the 20th rated points per game average in football, placing them as the second worst among playoff teams. For anyone who watched the Skins last year, I don't have to tell you how lethargic the offense looked 95% of the time. Adding playmakers in the passing game was definitely a valid priority for this team, and you take them when you can get them. I don't fault the Redskins for seeing a need and attempting to address it.
There was a bit of an outcry that the defensive line needed help getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but the numbers reflect a very solid defense last year. They had the 11th best points defense, and the 8th best yards defense. The seven teams ahead of them were Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, New England, Tennessee, Baltimore, and the New York Giants, all of whom sport notoriously effective defenses. So while certainly the Skins could use a premier pass rusher, who couldn't? When it came down to it, a premier pass rusher wasn't available at those picks, and I'd be much more unhappy with my team if they made bad value picks that happened to fit one of multiple points of need. I'll take a few chances in the passing game with three guys who were all looked at as potential first round picks at one point in this pre-draft season.
SECOND DAY
I don't know much about most of these second day picks, but the Skins did make a splash by taking an early Heisman hopeful in Colt Brennan. I can't say for sure what he's going to look like in the pros, but in the sixth round, a guy who sported a college career 167.6 passer rating and completed 70% of his passes is a worthwhile risk. I think generally the second day quarterbacks (Dennis Dixon, John David Booty, Josh Johnson, Brennan) may look at least as good as the first day guys (Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Brian Brohm) when all is said and done. Watching the development of young quarterbacks is always one of the more interesting storylines of a draft to look back at.
So that's the situation. I like the way the Skins draft looks on paper right now, and that's the only way we can look at it at this point. It'll be very interesting to see what sort of playing time each of those three early picks gets, with Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle-El, and Chris Cooley locked in as the starters. Don't be surprised if that's one of our main topics come NFL preview radio show time.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Portal
I tried to think of a witty title for this post, but I was up late playing the aforementioned game, and I'm too tired now at work to be creative.
Portal is part of The Orange Box
, a 5-game pack from the makers of Half-Life. In addition to Portal, it includes the previously released Half-Life 2, as well as two follow-up "episodes," and Team Fortress 2, a multiplayer shooter game that involves characters with different roles (medic, engineer, soldier, 6 others). While I'm excited about playing the rest of the games in the suite, Portal is the only game I'm going to discuss right now.
The basic concept of the game is one of solving puzzles. Think of a first-person version of The Adventures of Lolo or Solomon's Key. The equivalent of Solomon's wand in this game is the Portal gun, which you don't have fully together until level 7 or so. Using the portal gun, you can create two ends of a portal, one orange and one blue. The two portals link to each other, so you can transport yourself to many different places in the world, and you'll have to do just that to progress in this game.
The first 15-20 challenges are refined, constructed rooms, designed specifically to test the player in a training sort of context. There are still deadly foes, so your life is on the line, but the game auto-saves after every minor accomplishment, and it offers a manual save anywhere in the game, so you won't have to worry about "lives" like in old NES puzzle games. After the final "test" room, you begin the more intense and more Half-Life style portion of the game. You still use your portal gun to move forward in the game, but things are much more dangerous, and you'll have to dodge bullets and pistons to stay alive.
One of the more endearing aspects of this game is GLaDOS, the artificial intelligence that guides you through the test rooms, and becomes the main antagonist by the end of the game. It's a robotic female voice that offers advice, quips, and sometimes outright lies about your progress in the game (such as the one room that she states is impossible). She's very funny, as are a few other aspects of the game, such as the machine gun drones who whine when you disable them. GLaDOS also sings a song at the end of the game that really embodies the attitude of the game. If you're itching to hear/see it, YouTube has got a bunch of videos of the end credits (the song is called Still Alive). For those of you who own Rock Band for the 360, it's a free download to add the song to your game.
The one shortcoming of the game is that it's very short. I played for two hours one night, then beat it the following night after another hour. But even though the game doesn't last very long, it's got a decent amount of lasting appeal, as I could definitely see going through the game again in a month.
A link I've found when reading about the game is here. It's a blog with a lot of Portal-inspired media, like songs and sound clips. Some pretty neat stuff on there, worth checking out I think.
, a 5-game pack from the makers of Half-Life. In addition to Portal, it includes the previously released Half-Life 2, as well as two follow-up "episodes," and Team Fortress 2, a multiplayer shooter game that involves characters with different roles (medic, engineer, soldier, 6 others). While I'm excited about playing the rest of the games in the suite, Portal is the only game I'm going to discuss right now.The basic concept of the game is one of solving puzzles. Think of a first-person version of The Adventures of Lolo or Solomon's Key. The equivalent of Solomon's wand in this game is the Portal gun, which you don't have fully together until level 7 or so. Using the portal gun, you can create two ends of a portal, one orange and one blue. The two portals link to each other, so you can transport yourself to many different places in the world, and you'll have to do just that to progress in this game.
The first 15-20 challenges are refined, constructed rooms, designed specifically to test the player in a training sort of context. There are still deadly foes, so your life is on the line, but the game auto-saves after every minor accomplishment, and it offers a manual save anywhere in the game, so you won't have to worry about "lives" like in old NES puzzle games. After the final "test" room, you begin the more intense and more Half-Life style portion of the game. You still use your portal gun to move forward in the game, but things are much more dangerous, and you'll have to dodge bullets and pistons to stay alive.
One of the more endearing aspects of this game is GLaDOS, the artificial intelligence that guides you through the test rooms, and becomes the main antagonist by the end of the game. It's a robotic female voice that offers advice, quips, and sometimes outright lies about your progress in the game (such as the one room that she states is impossible). She's very funny, as are a few other aspects of the game, such as the machine gun drones who whine when you disable them. GLaDOS also sings a song at the end of the game that really embodies the attitude of the game. If you're itching to hear/see it, YouTube has got a bunch of videos of the end credits (the song is called Still Alive). For those of you who own Rock Band for the 360, it's a free download to add the song to your game.
The one shortcoming of the game is that it's very short. I played for two hours one night, then beat it the following night after another hour. But even though the game doesn't last very long, it's got a decent amount of lasting appeal, as I could definitely see going through the game again in a month.
A link I've found when reading about the game is here. It's a blog with a lot of Portal-inspired media, like songs and sound clips. Some pretty neat stuff on there, worth checking out I think.
NFL Draft Top 10 Recap
Oh, who really cares about predictions? We've all got only partial information, and it only takes one unexpected pick to throw a whole sequence awry. And when you take a chance on the #2 pick and miss (as we did with Gholston), the rest of your predictions will suffer accordingly.
When you think about it, though, Chris Long was definitely the right pick for St. Louis at #2. He's as good a talent as Gholston, but more importantly, he's got good character and is very charismatic. That will go a long way towards giving the Rams' defense a face that they haven't had in a long, long time.
I'm still surprised that an elite level defensive tackle like Glenn Dorsey fell all the way to the fifth pick and the Kansas City Chiefs. I don't think McFadden is as talented as Adrian Peterson (Min), nor is he as focused. Part of the reason Peterson was such a tremendous player last year was that he brought his A game every week. McFadden didn't do that in college, and isn't likely to change that in the pros. I like Dorsey as a long term big time player on that KC defensive line.
The Jets, the team that did acquire Gholston, got a premier defensive line presence. With Shaun Ellis and the newly acquired Kris Jenkins as the other projected starters, the Jets will have one of the best front 3's (among 3-4 teams) in football. That being said, I've over-projected the Jets as far as wins and losses for 5+ years now, so I'll temper my expectations.
But enough about the wrong. We got the first pick right (after the Dolphins had already signed Jake Long to a deal), and we correctly predicted that the Falcons would draft the top QB, Matt Ryan, in an effort to distance themselves as much as possible from Michael Vick. I like the pick from a team image standpoint, but not so much from a football standpoint. I think there were better ways to make this team better, and while getting a long term replacement for Vick is important, nothing makes people forget like winning. That's got to be front and center for the Falcons going forward.
What I took away from this draft more than anything was that I don't really like the NFL draft as much as the NBA draft. The NFL draft involves a lot of players I know nothing about, a lot of teams I don't care about, and a lot of analysis that seems awfully repetitive by round 2. You really only need that pros and cons page to tell you what you need to know: good speed, good leaping ability, suspect hands, lazy route-running. That's your average first round wide receiver.
But with either draft, the fun really enters when you do your research, so I'm looking to spend a lot of time reading about basketball prospects and team needs. That way, maybe we can get more than 2/10 right come NBA draft time.
When you think about it, though, Chris Long was definitely the right pick for St. Louis at #2. He's as good a talent as Gholston, but more importantly, he's got good character and is very charismatic. That will go a long way towards giving the Rams' defense a face that they haven't had in a long, long time.
I'm still surprised that an elite level defensive tackle like Glenn Dorsey fell all the way to the fifth pick and the Kansas City Chiefs. I don't think McFadden is as talented as Adrian Peterson (Min), nor is he as focused. Part of the reason Peterson was such a tremendous player last year was that he brought his A game every week. McFadden didn't do that in college, and isn't likely to change that in the pros. I like Dorsey as a long term big time player on that KC defensive line.
The Jets, the team that did acquire Gholston, got a premier defensive line presence. With Shaun Ellis and the newly acquired Kris Jenkins as the other projected starters, the Jets will have one of the best front 3's (among 3-4 teams) in football. That being said, I've over-projected the Jets as far as wins and losses for 5+ years now, so I'll temper my expectations.
But enough about the wrong. We got the first pick right (after the Dolphins had already signed Jake Long to a deal), and we correctly predicted that the Falcons would draft the top QB, Matt Ryan, in an effort to distance themselves as much as possible from Michael Vick. I like the pick from a team image standpoint, but not so much from a football standpoint. I think there were better ways to make this team better, and while getting a long term replacement for Vick is important, nothing makes people forget like winning. That's got to be front and center for the Falcons going forward.
What I took away from this draft more than anything was that I don't really like the NFL draft as much as the NBA draft. The NFL draft involves a lot of players I know nothing about, a lot of teams I don't care about, and a lot of analysis that seems awfully repetitive by round 2. You really only need that pros and cons page to tell you what you need to know: good speed, good leaping ability, suspect hands, lazy route-running. That's your average first round wide receiver.
But with either draft, the fun really enters when you do your research, so I'm looking to spend a lot of time reading about basketball prospects and team needs. That way, maybe we can get more than 2/10 right come NBA draft time.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
How Many Hand Motions Would We Have....
... if DeShawn Stevenson were any good? The Washington Wizards outspoken shooting guard was in rare form during Sunday's Game 4 of the Wizard/Cavaliers playoff series, unleashing at three different hand gestures following rather routine baskets. The gestures, including Stevenson's trademark "I can't feel my face" where he waves his hand in front of his ugly mug, were often accompanied by yapping to anyone within earshot. One has to wonder how many additional hand gestures Stevenson would have used on Sunday had he made more than five shots.
Not only was Stevenson outplayed by Lebron James (and who isn't), but was also outshined by DC native Delonte West. West, to the surprise of many, utilized exactly zero hand gestures, facial ticks or interpretive dances, not even when knocking down the game winner with 5 seconds remaining. While Stevenson is no doubt impressed by his own 5-12 with 2 threes, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, the non-theatric West was 5-8 from three point land, hitting 3 of 5 in the last ten minutes. Thankfully for the Verizon Center cleaning staff it wasn't Stevenson hitting the game winner, otherwise his performance of Swan Lake may still be going on.
Not only was Stevenson outplayed by Lebron James (and who isn't), but was also outshined by DC native Delonte West. West, to the surprise of many, utilized exactly zero hand gestures, facial ticks or interpretive dances, not even when knocking down the game winner with 5 seconds remaining. While Stevenson is no doubt impressed by his own 5-12 with 2 threes, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, the non-theatric West was 5-8 from three point land, hitting 3 of 5 in the last ten minutes. Thankfully for the Verizon Center cleaning staff it wasn't Stevenson hitting the game winner, otherwise his performance of Swan Lake may still be going on.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
National League Award Winners and Playoff Teams
NL MVP - Matt Holliday - Back to Back years winning the "Joe & Joe Sports MVP", but his first official MVP. Holiday established himself as the best hitter in the NL last year and will continue to bash in 2008. Sleeper - Carlos Lee
NL Cy Young - Johan Santana - Johan will benefit from not only moving to the lighter hitting NL, but he will also benefit from NL hitter that have never seen his nasty stuff. The explosive Mets lineup should also contribute to Santana's win total. Sleeper - Tim Lincecum (oh come on, who did you think I was going to say?)
NL Manager of the Year - Dusty Baker - Despite the slow start, the Reds should be in contention in the NL Central. Sleeper - Bob Melvin
NL Rookie of the Year - Johnny Cueto - The live-armed righty has already become a household name in fantasy circles, but should flirt with 200 strikes outs. Sleeper - Max Scherzer
NL Playoff Teams
New York Mets - Santana and a more consistent Reyes are enough to put the Mets into the post-season as the NL East champs.
Chicago Cubs - The most complete team in the NL Central.
Arizona Diamondbacks - Two dominant pitchers and a young core that has matured quickly make the Dbacks looks like the best in the west.
Philadelphia Phillies - Just too much offensive firepower to be denied, 30+ games against the Marlins and Nats won't hurt either.
NL Cy Young - Johan Santana - Johan will benefit from not only moving to the lighter hitting NL, but he will also benefit from NL hitter that have never seen his nasty stuff. The explosive Mets lineup should also contribute to Santana's win total. Sleeper - Tim Lincecum (oh come on, who did you think I was going to say?)
NL Manager of the Year - Dusty Baker - Despite the slow start, the Reds should be in contention in the NL Central. Sleeper - Bob Melvin
NL Rookie of the Year - Johnny Cueto - The live-armed righty has already become a household name in fantasy circles, but should flirt with 200 strikes outs. Sleeper - Max Scherzer
NL Playoff Teams
New York Mets - Santana and a more consistent Reyes are enough to put the Mets into the post-season as the NL East champs.
Chicago Cubs - The most complete team in the NL Central.
Arizona Diamondbacks - Two dominant pitchers and a young core that has matured quickly make the Dbacks looks like the best in the west.
Philadelphia Phillies - Just too much offensive firepower to be denied, 30+ games against the Marlins and Nats won't hurt either.
NFL Draft Top 10 Projection
Just like last year, Joe & Joe Sports is happy to bring you our projections for how the top ten picks in the first round of the NFL draft will play out. Unlike last year, however, we'll be posting this information right here on the blog, rather than in one of our radio shows. It was a confluence of events that made this happen, including unexpectedly long baseball shows, my move from Pennsylvania to Maryland, poor planning, and tax season. But you, the fans, will still enjoy the benefit of our analysis (and wit).
So, without further ado (haha), our top ten picks for the 2008 NFL draft.
#1 Miami Dolphins - Jake Long, OT, Michigan. The Dolphins made this one easy for us, signing Long days before they actually went onto the clock. I think this is the right move; when you've got a team with a lot of holes, you either trade down for more picks (which is more difficult than we often give it credit for) or draft the best lineman available. Long is that lineman in this draft, and he should be an asset for Miami for years to come.
#2 St. Louis Rams - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State. How funny would it be if players from Michigan and Ohio State went back to back as the first and second picks? Well, I guess not that funny really, but I'm sure there'd be some comments about Michigan finally beating Ohio State at something. Gholston is considered by many to be the best bet for becoming a future superstar in the entire draft, and with as poor as the Rams' pass rush was last year, he makes good sense for St. Louis.
#3 Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College. The consensus number one quarterback in the draft is Ryan, and I project him to go third to the Falcons. While I don't think Ryan is really the best player available at this point (or even the best fit for the Falcons), I think it's important for the Falcons to take a quarterback high in this draft to distance themselves mentally from the Michael Vick era. Ryan can be a solid quarterback, not a special quarterback, but he can give the Atlanta fans a new face to represent their franchise.
#4 Oakland Raiders - Glenn Dorsey, DT, Louisiana State. It'd be something a coup for Dorsey to fall this far in the draft, as he's widely considered the only legitimate #1 overall pick, with regards to talent. But if he does, you can be sure that the Raiders will stop the dropping right there. Dorsey would be a perfect heir to their retiring franchise defensive tackle, Warren Sapp, and he'd be able to step in immediately and have a positive impact on that defensive front. Oakland has got lots of problems, and nobody they draft here could turn them into a playoff team, but Dorsey puts them on the right path.
#5 Kansas City Chiefs - Chris Long, DE, Virginia. The other Long in this draft is the son of former Raider great Howie Long, and while it might take a couple of preseason games for Chiefs fans to warm up to him, his talent will go a long way towards forgetting that fact. Chris Long isn't necessarily a transcendent talent, but he's got great character and seems to be a smart player. He dominated at Virginia, and while he probably won't reach a Michael Strahan or Charles Haley level, most players don't. Long can be a valuable producer and a starter in this league for 12-15 years.
#6 New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. Let me start by saying this: McFadden is not Adrian Peterson. Peterson dominated every caliber of competition he faced in college; McFadden seemed to have trouble with the better defenses in the SEC. That being said, Larry Johnson had trouble with the better defenses in the Big Ten, and he's turned out pretty well. McFadden would give the Jets three legitimate starting caliber running backs along with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. A two-headed monster of Washington and McFadden for the next three years sounds very appealing to me.
#7 New England Patriots - Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy. The Patriots haven't had a pick this high in the draft for a while, which I think explains why they've tended to not "go after" top tier talent at cornerback. But this is an opportunity that New England won't squander, and they'll take advantage and grab the top defensive back in the draft. Their position of greatest need is probably linebacker, but at this point the best linebacker looks more likely to fall into the 15-20 pick range, and one thing you can count on the Patriots avoiding is wasting the value of this high pick. McKelvin gives them another option to replace Pro-Bowler Asante Samuel.
#8 Baltimore Ravens - Branden Albert, OG, Virginia. There's talk of Albert jumping up the draft board and going as high as fifth to the Chiefs, but this seems to be a more likely value spot. The Ravens would like to see Matt Ryan fall to this point, but if he's not available, you can never have too many offensive linemen. Albert gives them depth, and could give whatever new quarterback ends up starting in Baltimore an extra second or two to deliver the ball to their solid receiving corps. With Steve McNair retired and Kyle Boller having lost his favor with Ravens fans, quarterback is absolutely a position they'll need to address. But Baltimore historically has been too smart with their picks to reach for Brian Brohm or Joe Flacco, who both figure to be second round picks.
#9 Cincinnati Bengals - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida. The Bengals' draft plans would change mightily if they acquire another first round pick by trading Chad Johnson before the draft, but assuming no trades take place, I see the Bengals going after Harvey here. While he's been playing defensive end, he's got the speed to switch to linebacker, giving Cincinnati the opportunity to evaluate him as a general talent and find a way to get him on the field at different positions for crucial plays. Sedrick Ellis is another player the Bengals are rumored to like, and I really have no reason to say why Ellis or Harvey is a better fit than the other. Basically just flipping a coin.
#10 New Orleans Saints - Sedrick Ellis, DT, Southern California. The trouble with creating mock drafts is that someone always slips through the cracks and falls way later than you'd expect them to go. Ellis is one of those players, a guy that a lot of different teams like enough to take, but who seem to have more evident holes to fill. Ellis could go as high as fourth to the Raiders, but I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that he could also fall to this pick, though certainly not beyond. There's been talk of the Saints trading up to acquire Ellis, so if he falls into their laps, I'd be shocked if they didn't take him. He's a great pass and run defender who has played in big games at USC. Against Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, and whoever the Falcons run out there at QB, he could be a real disruption and a fantastic piece to help the Saints get back into the playoff picture.
Now, if you want to talk about accuracy, remember that last year each of us Joe's got three picks correct out of our first ten. So when you think about bashing us after we miss half the picks, just remember that the bar was set relatively low. And then feel free to bash us, either in the comments here on the blog (you can comment anonymously if you so choose) or via e-mail at joe.joe.sports@gmail.com.
So, without further ado (haha), our top ten picks for the 2008 NFL draft.
#1 Miami Dolphins - Jake Long, OT, Michigan. The Dolphins made this one easy for us, signing Long days before they actually went onto the clock. I think this is the right move; when you've got a team with a lot of holes, you either trade down for more picks (which is more difficult than we often give it credit for) or draft the best lineman available. Long is that lineman in this draft, and he should be an asset for Miami for years to come.
#2 St. Louis Rams - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State. How funny would it be if players from Michigan and Ohio State went back to back as the first and second picks? Well, I guess not that funny really, but I'm sure there'd be some comments about Michigan finally beating Ohio State at something. Gholston is considered by many to be the best bet for becoming a future superstar in the entire draft, and with as poor as the Rams' pass rush was last year, he makes good sense for St. Louis.
#3 Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College. The consensus number one quarterback in the draft is Ryan, and I project him to go third to the Falcons. While I don't think Ryan is really the best player available at this point (or even the best fit for the Falcons), I think it's important for the Falcons to take a quarterback high in this draft to distance themselves mentally from the Michael Vick era. Ryan can be a solid quarterback, not a special quarterback, but he can give the Atlanta fans a new face to represent their franchise.
#4 Oakland Raiders - Glenn Dorsey, DT, Louisiana State. It'd be something a coup for Dorsey to fall this far in the draft, as he's widely considered the only legitimate #1 overall pick, with regards to talent. But if he does, you can be sure that the Raiders will stop the dropping right there. Dorsey would be a perfect heir to their retiring franchise defensive tackle, Warren Sapp, and he'd be able to step in immediately and have a positive impact on that defensive front. Oakland has got lots of problems, and nobody they draft here could turn them into a playoff team, but Dorsey puts them on the right path.
#5 Kansas City Chiefs - Chris Long, DE, Virginia. The other Long in this draft is the son of former Raider great Howie Long, and while it might take a couple of preseason games for Chiefs fans to warm up to him, his talent will go a long way towards forgetting that fact. Chris Long isn't necessarily a transcendent talent, but he's got great character and seems to be a smart player. He dominated at Virginia, and while he probably won't reach a Michael Strahan or Charles Haley level, most players don't. Long can be a valuable producer and a starter in this league for 12-15 years.
#6 New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. Let me start by saying this: McFadden is not Adrian Peterson. Peterson dominated every caliber of competition he faced in college; McFadden seemed to have trouble with the better defenses in the SEC. That being said, Larry Johnson had trouble with the better defenses in the Big Ten, and he's turned out pretty well. McFadden would give the Jets three legitimate starting caliber running backs along with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. A two-headed monster of Washington and McFadden for the next three years sounds very appealing to me.
#7 New England Patriots - Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy. The Patriots haven't had a pick this high in the draft for a while, which I think explains why they've tended to not "go after" top tier talent at cornerback. But this is an opportunity that New England won't squander, and they'll take advantage and grab the top defensive back in the draft. Their position of greatest need is probably linebacker, but at this point the best linebacker looks more likely to fall into the 15-20 pick range, and one thing you can count on the Patriots avoiding is wasting the value of this high pick. McKelvin gives them another option to replace Pro-Bowler Asante Samuel.
#8 Baltimore Ravens - Branden Albert, OG, Virginia. There's talk of Albert jumping up the draft board and going as high as fifth to the Chiefs, but this seems to be a more likely value spot. The Ravens would like to see Matt Ryan fall to this point, but if he's not available, you can never have too many offensive linemen. Albert gives them depth, and could give whatever new quarterback ends up starting in Baltimore an extra second or two to deliver the ball to their solid receiving corps. With Steve McNair retired and Kyle Boller having lost his favor with Ravens fans, quarterback is absolutely a position they'll need to address. But Baltimore historically has been too smart with their picks to reach for Brian Brohm or Joe Flacco, who both figure to be second round picks.
#9 Cincinnati Bengals - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida. The Bengals' draft plans would change mightily if they acquire another first round pick by trading Chad Johnson before the draft, but assuming no trades take place, I see the Bengals going after Harvey here. While he's been playing defensive end, he's got the speed to switch to linebacker, giving Cincinnati the opportunity to evaluate him as a general talent and find a way to get him on the field at different positions for crucial plays. Sedrick Ellis is another player the Bengals are rumored to like, and I really have no reason to say why Ellis or Harvey is a better fit than the other. Basically just flipping a coin.
#10 New Orleans Saints - Sedrick Ellis, DT, Southern California. The trouble with creating mock drafts is that someone always slips through the cracks and falls way later than you'd expect them to go. Ellis is one of those players, a guy that a lot of different teams like enough to take, but who seem to have more evident holes to fill. Ellis could go as high as fourth to the Raiders, but I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that he could also fall to this pick, though certainly not beyond. There's been talk of the Saints trading up to acquire Ellis, so if he falls into their laps, I'd be shocked if they didn't take him. He's a great pass and run defender who has played in big games at USC. Against Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, and whoever the Falcons run out there at QB, he could be a real disruption and a fantastic piece to help the Saints get back into the playoff picture.
Now, if you want to talk about accuracy, remember that last year each of us Joe's got three picks correct out of our first ten. So when you think about bashing us after we miss half the picks, just remember that the bar was set relatively low. And then feel free to bash us, either in the comments here on the blog (you can comment anonymously if you so choose) or via e-mail at joe.joe.sports@gmail.com.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
The Other Joe's NL Award Winners and Playoff Teams
NL Most Valuable Player - Chase Utley: He'll make it three straight Philadelphia NL MVPs. Utley is probably the best pure hitter on the Phillies, and early this season he's really shined. For those of us who are fantasy baseball players, Utley's dominance is old hat, but he'll become widely known this year, owing partly to Rollins and Howard generating buzz from the city of Brotherly Love. Sleeper - Derrek Lee
NL Cy Young - Johan Santana: I've felt he was the best pitcher in baseball despite being in the burlier American League, so his move to the senior circuit should only be beneficial. Realistically though, you're looking at a great Cy Young race in the NL between Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, and Cole Hamels. Sleeper - Yovani Gallardo
NL Manager of the Year - Joe Torre: I don't think the Dodgers will be among the best teams in the league, but they'll be in the playoff hunt right up until the last week of the season. As I don't expect a surprise team to improve dramatically, and I don't see any of these teams going crazy and winning 100+ games, Torre will be one of the more heart-warming stories in the manager realm. How he handles the logjam in the outfield will prominently affect his potential for this award. Sleeper - Manny Acta
NL Rookie of the Year - Kosuke Fukudome: Whether or not players who have played professionally overseas should be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award is a debate for another time. The fact is, he's a disciplined bat who will be a vital cog for what figures to be a playoff team. His year-end numbers will justify a ROY award. Sleeper - Jay Bruce
NL Playoff Teams
New York Mets - Too much talent to fall apart like last year. Adding Santana gives them a legitimately scary rotation.
Chicago Cubs - I teeter between the Cubs and Brewers, but I believe the Cubs' starting pitchers and defense to be the difference.
Arizona Diamondbacks - The most exciting part of the D'Backs is that they can still get a lot better. Their young talent has room to improve, which could culminate in a 110 win season down the road.
Philadelphia Phillies - They're a pretty typical good team, and come playoff time they could surprise some people. As it is, though, they're looking like a wild card team.
NL Cy Young - Johan Santana: I've felt he was the best pitcher in baseball despite being in the burlier American League, so his move to the senior circuit should only be beneficial. Realistically though, you're looking at a great Cy Young race in the NL between Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, and Cole Hamels. Sleeper - Yovani Gallardo
NL Manager of the Year - Joe Torre: I don't think the Dodgers will be among the best teams in the league, but they'll be in the playoff hunt right up until the last week of the season. As I don't expect a surprise team to improve dramatically, and I don't see any of these teams going crazy and winning 100+ games, Torre will be one of the more heart-warming stories in the manager realm. How he handles the logjam in the outfield will prominently affect his potential for this award. Sleeper - Manny Acta
NL Rookie of the Year - Kosuke Fukudome: Whether or not players who have played professionally overseas should be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award is a debate for another time. The fact is, he's a disciplined bat who will be a vital cog for what figures to be a playoff team. His year-end numbers will justify a ROY award. Sleeper - Jay Bruce
NL Playoff Teams
New York Mets - Too much talent to fall apart like last year. Adding Santana gives them a legitimately scary rotation.
Chicago Cubs - I teeter between the Cubs and Brewers, but I believe the Cubs' starting pitchers and defense to be the difference.
Arizona Diamondbacks - The most exciting part of the D'Backs is that they can still get a lot better. Their young talent has room to improve, which could culminate in a 110 win season down the road.
Philadelphia Phillies - They're a pretty typical good team, and come playoff time they could surprise some people. As it is, though, they're looking like a wild card team.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Ikariam
I've been monitoring the progress of a pending MMORTS (massively multiplayer online real-time strategy) game called Beyond Protocol. It seems very interesting, at least in theory, and I've been doing a little pestering of the folks there, re-applying to the beta at least one extra time, I think twice, and reading up on the discussions people are having about the game. The diplomacy portion is what I'm really interested in, as it looks like they're planning on having a galaxy-governing body through which players can actually generate changes to the game. How this actually shakes out remains to be seen, but needless to say, I'm intrigued.
But in the meantime, I've been looking for other MMORTS-style games to quench my thirst. I play the occasional game of WarCraft III online, but it's not really what I'm looking for. I want more of a broad scope interactive game that includes diplomacy, economics, city management, and a civilian aspect of the game. Beyond Protocol may not even be that game, as I haven't seen much as far as the civilian side of things. So I've been looking around.
I did some browsing on Wikipedia and stumbled upon Ikariam. I've created an account (on Lambda world, if anyone else wants to join up), and I'm sort of testing the waters. It's a free system, though there is some kind of enhanced experience that you can get by buying "ambrosia" (using real money) and spending that. I haven't investigated that aspect too much, since for the time being I'm really just looking for a time-killer.
In that vein, one of the most appealing aspects of Ikariam is that it's a browser-based game. This means that, if I like, I can check in on it while I'm at work without having to install a big program or anything. I like the idea of checking in, giving new orders, and then getting back to the business of the day....which for me would probably be looking for more of those kinds of games.
Anyways, I've gotten to play it a little bit, and it seems very Civilization-esque. It's got a few different levels of management, from inside your city to the island that you share with a number of other cities, to the whole world (again, Lambda for me). You allocate resources to different tasks (military, research, resource management, etc.), and try to build your city so that it's strong enough to defend itself from eventual attackers while having the capacity to expand to new territories. Again, I'm very early in the game, and don't know exactly how combat or expansion works, but I know they're in the game somehow, and I'm looking forward to finding out.
All in all, it seems encouraging. I'm not going to declare right now that it's my kind of game, but it's certainly got the tools to be something I'm happy to throw some time into. If you decide to join up, let me know so I can track your town's progress and direct you towards my own.
But in the meantime, I've been looking for other MMORTS-style games to quench my thirst. I play the occasional game of WarCraft III online, but it's not really what I'm looking for. I want more of a broad scope interactive game that includes diplomacy, economics, city management, and a civilian aspect of the game. Beyond Protocol may not even be that game, as I haven't seen much as far as the civilian side of things. So I've been looking around.
I did some browsing on Wikipedia and stumbled upon Ikariam. I've created an account (on Lambda world, if anyone else wants to join up), and I'm sort of testing the waters. It's a free system, though there is some kind of enhanced experience that you can get by buying "ambrosia" (using real money) and spending that. I haven't investigated that aspect too much, since for the time being I'm really just looking for a time-killer.
In that vein, one of the most appealing aspects of Ikariam is that it's a browser-based game. This means that, if I like, I can check in on it while I'm at work without having to install a big program or anything. I like the idea of checking in, giving new orders, and then getting back to the business of the day....which for me would probably be looking for more of those kinds of games.
Anyways, I've gotten to play it a little bit, and it seems very Civilization-esque. It's got a few different levels of management, from inside your city to the island that you share with a number of other cities, to the whole world (again, Lambda for me). You allocate resources to different tasks (military, research, resource management, etc.), and try to build your city so that it's strong enough to defend itself from eventual attackers while having the capacity to expand to new territories. Again, I'm very early in the game, and don't know exactly how combat or expansion works, but I know they're in the game somehow, and I'm looking forward to finding out.
All in all, it seems encouraging. I'm not going to declare right now that it's my kind of game, but it's certainly got the tools to be something I'm happy to throw some time into. If you decide to join up, let me know so I can track your town's progress and direct you towards my own.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Things To Do Today...
If you live in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States, you've got a really lovely Saturday to work with today. Now, most sports radio shows, blogs, and television programs will tell you to get a couple friends, hop in a car, and go watch a baseball game, the weather's great for it. And they're right, the weather is great for watching a ballgame.
But really, what you should do is grab a couple friends, get outside, and play catch. You can watch a ballgame when the temperature climbs up to 85 or 90, but it gets uncomfortable to play catch at around 80. You've got to take advantage of these temperate days while we have them, because you know damn well that come July, we're looking at 90+ every single day.
Unless you don't like baseball. In which case, do whatever you want, we're obviously not friends anyways. I have no friends that don't like baseball.
But really, what you should do is grab a couple friends, get outside, and play catch. You can watch a ballgame when the temperature climbs up to 85 or 90, but it gets uncomfortable to play catch at around 80. You've got to take advantage of these temperate days while we have them, because you know damn well that come July, we're looking at 90+ every single day.
Unless you don't like baseball. In which case, do whatever you want, we're obviously not friends anyways. I have no friends that don't like baseball.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Carlos Marmol and the Middle Reliever's Fantasy Value
Last year Carlos Marmol established himself as one of the elite middle relievers in the league; posting excellent strikeout rate and ratios. But how valuable is such a player? Pitchers that are drafted tend to be starters which can rack up wins or closer which obviously grab the saves. But what about the middle ground?
A great middle reliever can lower your team's ERA and WHIP. Last year Marmol had an ERA of 1.43 over 69.1 innings. That is about a third of what a very solid starting pitcher will have. These innings will have an effect on your bottom line. It is sometimes difficult to imagine a middle reliever having significant value over the course of the season but there will be times when after a night of baseball one of your starting pitchers will have had a less than stellar game and a solid two innings in relief can help bring all of your final numbers for the night back to respectability.
Additionally Marmol had 96 strikeouts last season or 8 less than Chien-Ming Wang (in 130 less innings). A hard throwing reliever can help to balance out a crafty starter. These solid arms will get brought into close games late leading to more wins than the typical reliever and are the first in line for save opportunity if something were to happen to the closer. The closer situation is typically good to look at when valuing middle relievers. Kerry Wood's injury history makes Marmol a bit more valuable than if he were setting up Nathan. That being said, value picks are what win fantasy leagues. So while I think Marmol is very good pitcher, top- and middle-tier closers should go first. Marmol's value comes from being a contributor on your team that got taken late in a draft and offers mid-draft value.
Inconsistency is an issue with all relievers and pitching in general. Linebrink strung together three very good seasons but has been somewhat mediocre in recent years. Brad Lidge went from being a dominant force to not being able to hold off Dan Wheeler for the closer's job in just a couple of years. Spending a high draft pick on a player that could be relegated to mop-up duty after a bad month is a risky proposition.
My team includes the likes of the suddenly questionable Francisco Rodriguez, the always injury-prone Huston Street, and the incredibly hittable Jose Valverde. So, I'm glad I took Marmol in the 12th round of my draft, as he has already racked up 17 strikeouts in 12.1 innings. But could this end up blowing up in my face?
No, it can't. Did you even read the post?
A great middle reliever can lower your team's ERA and WHIP. Last year Marmol had an ERA of 1.43 over 69.1 innings. That is about a third of what a very solid starting pitcher will have. These innings will have an effect on your bottom line. It is sometimes difficult to imagine a middle reliever having significant value over the course of the season but there will be times when after a night of baseball one of your starting pitchers will have had a less than stellar game and a solid two innings in relief can help bring all of your final numbers for the night back to respectability.
Additionally Marmol had 96 strikeouts last season or 8 less than Chien-Ming Wang (in 130 less innings). A hard throwing reliever can help to balance out a crafty starter. These solid arms will get brought into close games late leading to more wins than the typical reliever and are the first in line for save opportunity if something were to happen to the closer. The closer situation is typically good to look at when valuing middle relievers. Kerry Wood's injury history makes Marmol a bit more valuable than if he were setting up Nathan. That being said, value picks are what win fantasy leagues. So while I think Marmol is very good pitcher, top- and middle-tier closers should go first. Marmol's value comes from being a contributor on your team that got taken late in a draft and offers mid-draft value.
Inconsistency is an issue with all relievers and pitching in general. Linebrink strung together three very good seasons but has been somewhat mediocre in recent years. Brad Lidge went from being a dominant force to not being able to hold off Dan Wheeler for the closer's job in just a couple of years. Spending a high draft pick on a player that could be relegated to mop-up duty after a bad month is a risky proposition.
My team includes the likes of the suddenly questionable Francisco Rodriguez, the always injury-prone Huston Street, and the incredibly hittable Jose Valverde. So, I'm glad I took Marmol in the 12th round of my draft, as he has already racked up 17 strikeouts in 12.1 innings. But could this end up blowing up in my face?
No, it can't. Did you even read the post?
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Race For The MVP
Listen, for those of you who have been on top of the NBA all season, you should really not have any trouble picking the MVP this year. One player really transcended both his own impressive track record and the rest of the NBA to be, without a doubt, the most important player on one of the best teams in its conference. And the team really wasn't expected to be a powerhouse, more of a bottom of the playoff bracket team. So who am I talking about? Well, as I said, if you've had your finger on the pulse of basketball this year, you know. If not, you'll just have to toil through my analysis of the top four contenders: Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, and Chris Paul. You like how my description could suit any of those players? That's coincidence, I don't think when I write, I just commentate on my writing afterwards.
Kobe Bryant
Kobe Bryant was absolutely one of the best players in basketball this year. Despite constant offseason bitterness and demands to be traded off the Lakers, Bryant came to play from day one. He averaged 28 points per game, and played in every single one despite injuring his shooting hand. His performance somehow didn't slip, and he led the Lakers to the #1 seed in the extraordinary Western Conference this season. He's not known as being a terribly mature player or teammate, and he does have that tiny little incident in Colorado from a couple years ago, but on the court, he's among the best of our time. He's as close to Michael Jordan as we've got right now.
Kevin Garnett
The biggest offseason move was the trade of Kevin Garnett from the Timberwolves, where he had spent his entire career, to the Celtics, who traded almost the equivalent of a full roster in acquiring Ray Allen and Garnett. The results were a sight for sore eyes for Celtics fans (at least those ones who aren't baseball or football fans). Boston won 66 games this year, a full seven games ahead of the Pistons for the #1 seedd in the Eastern Conference. Garnett's points, rebounds, and assists were actually down from his career averages, but he was more efficient than ever, posting a career high shooting percentage and cutting almost a whole turnover per game off of his stat sheet. The reality of Garnett is that he started to play more like a true point forward, starting the offense, but not being relied upon to make every play. The Celtics would have been better just by adding Ray Allen, but most anybody in basketball will tell you that Garnett is the reason the Celtics are primed for their first NBA finals in a generation.
LeBron James
Ho hum. LeBron quietly averaged 30 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists per game this season. You wouldn't think that'd be possible, but because of the resurgence of the classic Lakers Celtics rivalry, the 45-37 Cavaliers and their superstar have gone somewhat unappreciated. LeBron took yet another step towards becoming a legend in the sport, increasing his assists, steals, blocks, and rebounds. His free throw percentage is still not what it should be for a player of his caliber, but that will improve as he becomes more committed to good form and follow-through. He had 7 triple-doubles this year, and in only 5 of his 74 starts did he post fewer than 20 points, showing a consistency he lacked in previous seasons. This could be especially valuable in the playoffs, as the Cavaliers are a team that really can't afford for their best player to have an off night. They live and die with James, and at least for the first round against my woeful Wizards, they figure to survive. LeBron has got a killer instinct that seems to be matched only by Kobe Bryant.
Chris Paul
The fire for Chris Paul seems to have died out a little bit, though the Hornets still won by far the toughest division in the NBA, the Southeast, which features four 50-win teams. Paul increased his scoring, assists, and field goal percentage for the second straight year, and was the first guy in a while who wasn't Steve Nash to lead the NBA in assists per game. The Hornets were a real shocker as far as their performance this year, and all of the credit for that has got to go to Paul, who made every clutch play when his team needed it. It's nice when your best player is a young point guard, and the Hornets can be excited about their prospects with Paul at the helm for years to come.
So who's your MVP? Don't make me laugh. Kobe Bryant has got to win this award in a landslide. The two main factors for an MVP award are individual performance and team performance. Garnett's team was exceptional, but his numbers were only very good. LeBron had absurd numbers, but his team was only 8 games over .500. Chris Paul shined along with his team, but he clocks in a tick below Bryant in each of those departments. Ladies and gentlemen, your MVP, Kobe Bryant.
Kobe Bryant
Kobe Bryant was absolutely one of the best players in basketball this year. Despite constant offseason bitterness and demands to be traded off the Lakers, Bryant came to play from day one. He averaged 28 points per game, and played in every single one despite injuring his shooting hand. His performance somehow didn't slip, and he led the Lakers to the #1 seed in the extraordinary Western Conference this season. He's not known as being a terribly mature player or teammate, and he does have that tiny little incident in Colorado from a couple years ago, but on the court, he's among the best of our time. He's as close to Michael Jordan as we've got right now.
Kevin Garnett
The biggest offseason move was the trade of Kevin Garnett from the Timberwolves, where he had spent his entire career, to the Celtics, who traded almost the equivalent of a full roster in acquiring Ray Allen and Garnett. The results were a sight for sore eyes for Celtics fans (at least those ones who aren't baseball or football fans). Boston won 66 games this year, a full seven games ahead of the Pistons for the #1 seedd in the Eastern Conference. Garnett's points, rebounds, and assists were actually down from his career averages, but he was more efficient than ever, posting a career high shooting percentage and cutting almost a whole turnover per game off of his stat sheet. The reality of Garnett is that he started to play more like a true point forward, starting the offense, but not being relied upon to make every play. The Celtics would have been better just by adding Ray Allen, but most anybody in basketball will tell you that Garnett is the reason the Celtics are primed for their first NBA finals in a generation.
LeBron James
Ho hum. LeBron quietly averaged 30 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists per game this season. You wouldn't think that'd be possible, but because of the resurgence of the classic Lakers Celtics rivalry, the 45-37 Cavaliers and their superstar have gone somewhat unappreciated. LeBron took yet another step towards becoming a legend in the sport, increasing his assists, steals, blocks, and rebounds. His free throw percentage is still not what it should be for a player of his caliber, but that will improve as he becomes more committed to good form and follow-through. He had 7 triple-doubles this year, and in only 5 of his 74 starts did he post fewer than 20 points, showing a consistency he lacked in previous seasons. This could be especially valuable in the playoffs, as the Cavaliers are a team that really can't afford for their best player to have an off night. They live and die with James, and at least for the first round against my woeful Wizards, they figure to survive. LeBron has got a killer instinct that seems to be matched only by Kobe Bryant.
Chris Paul
The fire for Chris Paul seems to have died out a little bit, though the Hornets still won by far the toughest division in the NBA, the Southeast, which features four 50-win teams. Paul increased his scoring, assists, and field goal percentage for the second straight year, and was the first guy in a while who wasn't Steve Nash to lead the NBA in assists per game. The Hornets were a real shocker as far as their performance this year, and all of the credit for that has got to go to Paul, who made every clutch play when his team needed it. It's nice when your best player is a young point guard, and the Hornets can be excited about their prospects with Paul at the helm for years to come.
So who's your MVP? Don't make me laugh. Kobe Bryant has got to win this award in a landslide. The two main factors for an MVP award are individual performance and team performance. Garnett's team was exceptional, but his numbers were only very good. LeBron had absurd numbers, but his team was only 8 games over .500. Chris Paul shined along with his team, but he clocks in a tick below Bryant in each of those departments. Ladies and gentlemen, your MVP, Kobe Bryant.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Flight of the Conchords
Alright, it's time. You've probably heard me allude to them on here or my other blog, or make countless references in conversation. But now it's finally time for me to tell you how much I love Flight of the Conchords.
A lot.
There are actually two entities called Flight of the Conchords: the band and the show, starring the band. I like the band, but I'm more impressed with the show. Granted, each episode has at least two songs written by the band, and they're not always perfectly integrated, but their main goal is comedic, and the show has more LPMs (laughs per minute) than any of their songs.
The trouble, of course, is that retelling the jokes in written form is a complete waste. You'll have to get out there and look for yourselves. YouTube has got a lot of clips from the show, but some of them are out of context and may not be as humorous as they could be. In fact, to really show you what the show is all about, it's probably better to tell you to look up the music videos from the show on YouTube. Some of them don't really fit into the storylines, or give you a good idea of what the show is all about, but I've got a few that are particularly funny, and also give you a good sense of the show's sense of humor. I'll link them to their respective videos when I get home; I'm at work right now and YouTube is among the very few restricted websites.
With season one available for $19.99 at Circuit City online, it's a small investment that you can expect to return a lot of laughs. If you enjoy the videos, you'll love the show. Think of the Office, except with characters who are more quirky and less insane.
A lot.
There are actually two entities called Flight of the Conchords: the band and the show, starring the band. I like the band, but I'm more impressed with the show. Granted, each episode has at least two songs written by the band, and they're not always perfectly integrated, but their main goal is comedic, and the show has more LPMs (laughs per minute) than any of their songs.
The trouble, of course, is that retelling the jokes in written form is a complete waste. You'll have to get out there and look for yourselves. YouTube has got a lot of clips from the show, but some of them are out of context and may not be as humorous as they could be. In fact, to really show you what the show is all about, it's probably better to tell you to look up the music videos from the show on YouTube. Some of them don't really fit into the storylines, or give you a good idea of what the show is all about, but I've got a few that are particularly funny, and also give you a good sense of the show's sense of humor. I'll link them to their respective videos when I get home; I'm at work right now and YouTube is among the very few restricted websites.
With season one available for $19.99 at Circuit City online, it's a small investment that you can expect to return a lot of laughs. If you enjoy the videos, you'll love the show. Think of the Office, except with characters who are more quirky and less insane.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Middle Earth Draft Analysis - Rounds 13 & 14
Round 13
145. Mercer AutoWreckers - Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Orioles
146. Vandelay Industries - Chase Headley, 3B, Padres
147. Dunedain Rangers - Jake Westbrook, SP, Indians
148. Those Guys - Raul Ibanez, OF, Mariners
149. Howard's Heroes (from The Usual Suspects) - Boof Bonser, SP, Twins
150. Howard's Heroes - Ryan Theriot, 2B, Cubs
151. Cleveland Enforcers - Joel Zumaya, RP, Tigers
152. DamKnights - Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins
153. Feisty Mosquitos - Jose Guillen, OF, Royals
154. Akron Pronks - Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Red Sox
155. Stewies SexyParties - Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies
156. Vandelay Industries (from Riders of Rohan) - Ryan Spilborghs, OF, Rockies
Round 14
157. Akron Pronks (from Mercer AutoWreckers) - Scott Baker, SP, Twins
158. Vandelay Industries - Gio Gonzalez, SP, Athletics
159. Dunedain Rangers - Willy Mo Pena, Nationals
160. Those Guys - Brian Fuentes, RP, Rockies
161. Howard's Heroes (from The Usual Suspects) - Luke Scott, OF, Orioles
162. Howard's Heroes - Andrew Miller, SP, Marlins
163. Howard's Heroes (from Cleveland Enforcers) - Joe Crede, 3B, White Sox
164. DamKnights - Henry Owens, RP, Marlins
165. Feisty Mosquitos - Scot Shields, RP, Angels
166. Akron Pronks - Bill Hall, OF, Brewers
167. Stewies SexyParties - Bartolo Colon, SP, Red Sox
168. Vandelay Industries (from Riders of Rohan via The Usual Suspects) - David Price, SP, Rays
Best Pick(s) - I'll take this opportunity to highlight the solid job Howard's Heroes did in acquiring solid talent despite trading a lot of earlier picks. Ryan Theriot, Luke Scott, and Joe Crede all figure to be solid producers, with Theriot a speed merchant, and Scott and Crede having decent power potential. Andrew Miller and Boof Bonser are both high caliber pitching prospects, so with five picks in the last two rounds, the Heroes were able to find a lot of valuable pieces.
Worst Pick(s) - Jake Westbrook seems to have reached his ceiling, and it's not impressive. Joel Zumaya seems to be the heir apparent to Jeff Kent in finding weird ways to get himself hurt, and wouldn't you know it, he started the season on the DL. But really, in the last two rounds, half of these guys are going to be on waivers before the season anyways, so the "bad" picks here are merely guys ready to be dropped for whoever starts hot.
Riders' Pick(s) - No picks.
Overall Analysis - I enjoyed this draft, but I think I prefer to have more of a standard draft, rather than shifting all around the board. With my picks bunched together, I couldn't really do any "best available" picks; I had to grab what I needed because I wasn't going to be picking for a couple rounds. A lot of the guys taken in the last two rounds were very intriguing, but because of my situation, I wasn't really in a position to pick a guy like David Price, Carlos Gomez, or Bartolo Colon. It'll be very interesting to see in the middle of the season how that has affected the standings.
That's the last of the draft analysis, so I'll start getting back to regular professional sports commentary. But don't worry; there'll be plenty of fantasy discussion mixed in.
145. Mercer AutoWreckers - Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Orioles
146. Vandelay Industries - Chase Headley, 3B, Padres
147. Dunedain Rangers - Jake Westbrook, SP, Indians
148. Those Guys - Raul Ibanez, OF, Mariners
149. Howard's Heroes (from The Usual Suspects) - Boof Bonser, SP, Twins
150. Howard's Heroes - Ryan Theriot, 2B, Cubs
151. Cleveland Enforcers - Joel Zumaya, RP, Tigers
152. DamKnights - Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins
153. Feisty Mosquitos - Jose Guillen, OF, Royals
154. Akron Pronks - Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Red Sox
155. Stewies SexyParties - Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies
156. Vandelay Industries (from Riders of Rohan) - Ryan Spilborghs, OF, Rockies
Round 14
157. Akron Pronks (from Mercer AutoWreckers) - Scott Baker, SP, Twins
158. Vandelay Industries - Gio Gonzalez, SP, Athletics
159. Dunedain Rangers - Willy Mo Pena, Nationals
160. Those Guys - Brian Fuentes, RP, Rockies
161. Howard's Heroes (from The Usual Suspects) - Luke Scott, OF, Orioles
162. Howard's Heroes - Andrew Miller, SP, Marlins
163. Howard's Heroes (from Cleveland Enforcers) - Joe Crede, 3B, White Sox
164. DamKnights - Henry Owens, RP, Marlins
165. Feisty Mosquitos - Scot Shields, RP, Angels
166. Akron Pronks - Bill Hall, OF, Brewers
167. Stewies SexyParties - Bartolo Colon, SP, Red Sox
168. Vandelay Industries (from Riders of Rohan via The Usual Suspects) - David Price, SP, Rays
Best Pick(s) - I'll take this opportunity to highlight the solid job Howard's Heroes did in acquiring solid talent despite trading a lot of earlier picks. Ryan Theriot, Luke Scott, and Joe Crede all figure to be solid producers, with Theriot a speed merchant, and Scott and Crede having decent power potential. Andrew Miller and Boof Bonser are both high caliber pitching prospects, so with five picks in the last two rounds, the Heroes were able to find a lot of valuable pieces.
Worst Pick(s) - Jake Westbrook seems to have reached his ceiling, and it's not impressive. Joel Zumaya seems to be the heir apparent to Jeff Kent in finding weird ways to get himself hurt, and wouldn't you know it, he started the season on the DL. But really, in the last two rounds, half of these guys are going to be on waivers before the season anyways, so the "bad" picks here are merely guys ready to be dropped for whoever starts hot.
Riders' Pick(s) - No picks.
Overall Analysis - I enjoyed this draft, but I think I prefer to have more of a standard draft, rather than shifting all around the board. With my picks bunched together, I couldn't really do any "best available" picks; I had to grab what I needed because I wasn't going to be picking for a couple rounds. A lot of the guys taken in the last two rounds were very intriguing, but because of my situation, I wasn't really in a position to pick a guy like David Price, Carlos Gomez, or Bartolo Colon. It'll be very interesting to see in the middle of the season how that has affected the standings.
That's the last of the draft analysis, so I'll start getting back to regular professional sports commentary. But don't worry; there'll be plenty of fantasy discussion mixed in.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Middle Earth Draft Analysis - Rounds 11 & 12
Round 11
121. Mercer AutoWreckers - Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox
122. Vandelay Industries - Bob Howry, RP, Cubs
123. Dunedain Rangers - Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees
124. Those Guys - Kazuo Matsui, 2B, Astros
125. Riders of Rohan (from The Usual Suspects) - Jeff Kent, 2B, Dodgers
126. Howard's Heroes - Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants
127. Cleveland Enforcers - Mark Beuhrle, SP, White Sox
128. DamKnights - Kevin Slowey, SP, Twins
129. Feisty Mosquitos - Ian Kennedy, SP, Yankees
130. Akron Pronks - Hideki Okajima, RP, Red Sox
131. Stewies SexyParties - Ryan Garko, 1B, Indians
132. Riders of Rohan - Jason Schmidt, SP, Dodgers
Round 12
133. Mercer AutoWreckers - Bronson Arroyo, SP, Reds
134. Vandelay Industries - Andy Pettitte, SP, Yankees
135. Dunedain Rangers - Felix Pie, OF, Cubs
136. Those Guys - Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals
137. The Usual Suspects - Jay Bruce, OF, Reds
138. The Usual Suspects (from Howard's Heroes) - Pat Neshek, RP, Twins
139. Cleveland Enforcers - Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks
140. DamKnights - Conor Jackson, 1B, Diamondbacks
141. Feisty Mosquitos - Nick Johnson, 1B, Nationals
142. Akron Pronks - Curt Schilling, SP, Red Sox
143. Stewies SexyParties - Cameron Maybin, OF, Marlins
144. Vandelay Industries (from Riders of Rohan) - Matt Garza, SP, Rays
Best Pick(s) - Stephen Drew is still considered a can't-miss prospect, so getting him this late seems like a worthy acquisition. Jeff Kent and Aaron Rowand could be very solid producers, and the kind of guys that competitive owners should target at low cost in keeper leagues.
Worst Pick(s) - Even at the time of the draft, Schmidt and Schilling were expected to miss substantial time. While it's late enough in the draft that the risk is minimal, it's still a pick used on a guy who simply can't be a big producer.
Riders' Pick(s) - As you might've guessed, I really liked my Kent pick, and wasn't as keen on my Schmidt acquisition. But it did complete the unholy trinity of injured pitchers (Prior, Carpenter, Schmidt), so I've at least got that going for me.
Overall Analysis - As I said about the last two rounds, most of the guys here are being taken where they ought to be taken. Role players, sleepers, and youngsters highlight these later rounds, and those that work out tend to be integral parts of the teams in the top half of the standings.
121. Mercer AutoWreckers - Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox
122. Vandelay Industries - Bob Howry, RP, Cubs
123. Dunedain Rangers - Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees
124. Those Guys - Kazuo Matsui, 2B, Astros
125. Riders of Rohan (from The Usual Suspects) - Jeff Kent, 2B, Dodgers
126. Howard's Heroes - Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants
127. Cleveland Enforcers - Mark Beuhrle, SP, White Sox
128. DamKnights - Kevin Slowey, SP, Twins
129. Feisty Mosquitos - Ian Kennedy, SP, Yankees
130. Akron Pronks - Hideki Okajima, RP, Red Sox
131. Stewies SexyParties - Ryan Garko, 1B, Indians
132. Riders of Rohan - Jason Schmidt, SP, Dodgers
Round 12
133. Mercer AutoWreckers - Bronson Arroyo, SP, Reds
134. Vandelay Industries - Andy Pettitte, SP, Yankees
135. Dunedain Rangers - Felix Pie, OF, Cubs
136. Those Guys - Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals
137. The Usual Suspects - Jay Bruce, OF, Reds
138. The Usual Suspects (from Howard's Heroes) - Pat Neshek, RP, Twins
139. Cleveland Enforcers - Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks
140. DamKnights - Conor Jackson, 1B, Diamondbacks
141. Feisty Mosquitos - Nick Johnson, 1B, Nationals
142. Akron Pronks - Curt Schilling, SP, Red Sox
143. Stewies SexyParties - Cameron Maybin, OF, Marlins
144. Vandelay Industries (from Riders of Rohan) - Matt Garza, SP, Rays
Best Pick(s) - Stephen Drew is still considered a can't-miss prospect, so getting him this late seems like a worthy acquisition. Jeff Kent and Aaron Rowand could be very solid producers, and the kind of guys that competitive owners should target at low cost in keeper leagues.
Worst Pick(s) - Even at the time of the draft, Schmidt and Schilling were expected to miss substantial time. While it's late enough in the draft that the risk is minimal, it's still a pick used on a guy who simply can't be a big producer.
Riders' Pick(s) - As you might've guessed, I really liked my Kent pick, and wasn't as keen on my Schmidt acquisition. But it did complete the unholy trinity of injured pitchers (Prior, Carpenter, Schmidt), so I've at least got that going for me.
Overall Analysis - As I said about the last two rounds, most of the guys here are being taken where they ought to be taken. Role players, sleepers, and youngsters highlight these later rounds, and those that work out tend to be integral parts of the teams in the top half of the standings.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
New NFL Rules
The NFL passed a few new rules into law this week, most of which seem like a good idea:
- Field goals are now reviewable, which seems like the kind of thing that should have always been reviewable, so I'm in favor of that.
- Teams can elect to "defer" the coin toss to the opposing team, rather than choosing to receive or kick off. That's fine, though I really don't care, and I imagine most coaches don't care either. Possession seems much more important than direction.
- The 5-yard variety of facemask penalties was eliminated. My hope with this rule change is that, while the total number of facemask penalties will go down, the number of 15-yard facemask penalties will go up. Any level of twisting or pulling should now be a 15-yard personal foul. This rule change seems to be closer to the spirit of football, where sometimes you're going to get your hand on somebody's facemask.
- Defensive players can now also wear radio helmets, just like the offense has with the quarterback. Though I didn't see any specifics, I assume they mean just one player on defense. This seems like a direct response to the Patriots' spying scandal, and a way to even the playing field a little bit. I'm in favor.
But there's one rule that, at least at first glance, seems like a bad idea:
- The concept of a "force out" on the sidelines was eliminated with regards to pass completions. I could maybe see this being a good idea if you go with the "one foot in bounds" rule that college uses, but all signs point to it still being a two feet league. That means that defensive backs are all going to be trying to force receivers out of bounds, and we're going to get a lot less passes near the sidelines. In case you can't put two and two together, this means that late game drives are going to be a lot more difficult, which is a shame, because late game drives are really the most entertaining part of football. I'll need more concrete information on this rule to know for sure, but at first glance, it doesn't look good.
I do like that the NFL, as a league that relies heavily on its rules to define the game, is willing to make changes from year to year in the hopes of creating a better package, a safer and fairer sport. Kudos on the effort, just make sure you get that sideline catch rule right.
NL Delay
We apologize to all of our loyal fans for our delay in getting National League preview shows recorded and available for download, but a few mitigating factors this weekend/week have created some difficulties, not the least of which is my own relocation from Altoona, PA to Gaithersburg, MD. We apologize for the delay and hope to get at least one show up later this week. As my living situation stabilizes, we'll figure to get back into our normal groove of a show every 1-2 weeks.
Thanks for keeping up with Joe & Joe Sports, and we look forward to giving you our often entertaining and occasionally correct analysis very soon!
Thanks for keeping up with Joe & Joe Sports, and we look forward to giving you our often entertaining and occasionally correct analysis very soon!
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