Tuesday, May 6, 2008

NFL Draft Top 10 Recap

Oh, who really cares about predictions? We've all got only partial information, and it only takes one unexpected pick to throw a whole sequence awry. And when you take a chance on the #2 pick and miss (as we did with Gholston), the rest of your predictions will suffer accordingly.

When you think about it, though, Chris Long was definitely the right pick for St. Louis at #2. He's as good a talent as Gholston, but more importantly, he's got good character and is very charismatic. That will go a long way towards giving the Rams' defense a face that they haven't had in a long, long time.

I'm still surprised that an elite level defensive tackle like Glenn Dorsey fell all the way to the fifth pick and the Kansas City Chiefs. I don't think McFadden is as talented as Adrian Peterson (Min), nor is he as focused. Part of the reason Peterson was such a tremendous player last year was that he brought his A game every week. McFadden didn't do that in college, and isn't likely to change that in the pros. I like Dorsey as a long term big time player on that KC defensive line.

The Jets, the team that did acquire Gholston, got a premier defensive line presence. With Shaun Ellis and the newly acquired Kris Jenkins as the other projected starters, the Jets will have one of the best front 3's (among 3-4 teams) in football. That being said, I've over-projected the Jets as far as wins and losses for 5+ years now, so I'll temper my expectations.

But enough about the wrong. We got the first pick right (after the Dolphins had already signed Jake Long to a deal), and we correctly predicted that the Falcons would draft the top QB, Matt Ryan, in an effort to distance themselves as much as possible from Michael Vick. I like the pick from a team image standpoint, but not so much from a football standpoint. I think there were better ways to make this team better, and while getting a long term replacement for Vick is important, nothing makes people forget like winning. That's got to be front and center for the Falcons going forward.

What I took away from this draft more than anything was that I don't really like the NFL draft as much as the NBA draft. The NFL draft involves a lot of players I know nothing about, a lot of teams I don't care about, and a lot of analysis that seems awfully repetitive by round 2. You really only need that pros and cons page to tell you what you need to know: good speed, good leaping ability, suspect hands, lazy route-running. That's your average first round wide receiver.

But with either draft, the fun really enters when you do your research, so I'm looking to spend a lot of time reading about basketball prospects and team needs. That way, maybe we can get more than 2/10 right come NBA draft time.

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