With no expertise and seconds before the puck is dropped in the decisive game seven between the Philadelphia Flyers and the Boston Bruins, I offer my quick analysis and pick.
The Flyers are physical, and Simon Gagne is back from injury. Additionally, they've won three straight games to force this game seven, which would suggest that they're on a roll.
But Tuukka Rask has the ability to just flatten an opponent, where I just don't feel that way about Michael Leighton. Moreover, I still think the home ice advantage will have an impact, albeit a small one. It has to matter one of these days, right? We won't see the Penguins, Capitals, Coyotes and Bruins lose game 7's on home ice in the same playoffs, right?
Guys? Right?
Friday, May 14, 2010
Thursday, May 13, 2010
What Does This Change?
The Penguins' loss to the Canadiens last night really helped to temper my disdain for Pittsburgh and its fans. Knowing that I won't have to hear about any Pittsburgh team for at least a few months is some comfort. I'm sure I'll still encounter my share of snotty Penguins fans who'll make fun of the Capitals for losing in the first round, but at least now, with the Penguins having come up short in these playoffs as well, I can feel a little more comfortable citing the Caps' regular season sweep of the Penguins as a counter-argument.
Do I still hate Pittsburgh? Probably, though it's a question I'm trying to give more thought these days. I have a couple of good friends who are fans of all things Pittsburgh, and they're pretty reasonable folks, guys I like hanging out with. I had a Facebook friend who was just horrible in his interactions with Capitals fans, but he has since been un-friended, so that's that.
There'll always be people who are nasty about their favorite sports teams, regardless of the team you're talking about. People want to be a part of something bigger than themselves, and they want to be a part of a successful venture. Some people will react to that success with grace, and others will react with venom. It all depends on the nature of the person, not the nature of the team.
I'd like to think that I'm fairly gracious in victory, though in this town, that's not a characteristic we have to worry about too much. I do feel like I can now just sit down and watch hockey, rather than being worried about how far the Penguins will go and how much shit I'm going to have to listen to if I watch a game. And that feels good.
By the way, my new rooting interest has become the San Jose Sharks (starting in round 2, after they ousted my favorite Western Conference team, the Colorado Avalanche). I like Joe Thornton a lot, but more so I like that they had a reputation for being playoff chokers, and they're shedding that reputation before our eyes.
Also, they're freaking sharks! :)
Do I still hate Pittsburgh? Probably, though it's a question I'm trying to give more thought these days. I have a couple of good friends who are fans of all things Pittsburgh, and they're pretty reasonable folks, guys I like hanging out with. I had a Facebook friend who was just horrible in his interactions with Capitals fans, but he has since been un-friended, so that's that.
There'll always be people who are nasty about their favorite sports teams, regardless of the team you're talking about. People want to be a part of something bigger than themselves, and they want to be a part of a successful venture. Some people will react to that success with grace, and others will react with venom. It all depends on the nature of the person, not the nature of the team.
I'd like to think that I'm fairly gracious in victory, though in this town, that's not a characteristic we have to worry about too much. I do feel like I can now just sit down and watch hockey, rather than being worried about how far the Penguins will go and how much shit I'm going to have to listen to if I watch a game. And that feels good.
By the way, my new rooting interest has become the San Jose Sharks (starting in round 2, after they ousted my favorite Western Conference team, the Colorado Avalanche). I like Joe Thornton a lot, but more so I like that they had a reputation for being playoff chokers, and they're shedding that reputation before our eyes.
Also, they're freaking sharks! :)
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Someone Get LaVar Arrington off My Radio
I've had very little nice to say about LaVar Arrington since about three years into his tenure as a Washington Redskin. He was a disappointing high draft pick, and perhaps served as a warning to other teams regarding early linebacker picks. Their skills don't always translate to the NFL, as they rely on being faster than college running backs, and strong enough to take them down.
But I can get past a bad draft pick. He didn't work out, that's alright, it happens. I wouldn't be talking about Arrington today if that's where it stopped. But he's got his own radio show in the DC area. It's on from 2 PM - 6 PM, afternoon drive time, which means someone decided he was one of the best options they have, and whoever that is should be fired.
LaVar is awful. He comes across as naive and foolish, and he's just about the worst interviewer I've ever heard. Some commentators will offer leading questions; LaVar outright answers his own questions, then says, "Right?" He basically instructs his interviewee to use as many cliches as possible. His radio partner, Chad Dukes, has some more sense than Arrington, but he encourages LaVar enough that he's complicit in this crime. And make no mistake; what LaVar Arrington does to his radio listeners is criminal.
The worst part of it all is that I think Arrington is just not all that familiar with today's NFL. Just yesterday, the discussion focused on DeSean Jackson's comments about being happy that Donovan McNabb was out of town. That kind of discussion, a division rival talking smack about your quarterback, that's easy radio fodder. Arrington managed to make himself look like an idiot. First, he referred to McNabb's replacement as Schaub. Three times. Matt Schaub is the starting quarterback for the Houston Texans, and is fairly accomplished. Kevin Kolb is McNabb's replacement in Philadelphia.
If that were the only mistake he made, while silly, it could be chalked up to misspeaking once, then repeating the misspeak. But just a minute later, this exchange took place between LaVar and Dukes:
L: "How many teams are in the NFL? Thirty-five?"
C: "Thirty-two."
L: "Yeah, I guess there would have to be an even number."
Congratulations, LaVar Arrington. You've established yourself as the least qualified sports commentator in the Washington, DC area. Seriously, how many teams are in the NFL? I'll give you a clue, LaVar. No teams have been added to the league since you stopped playing football less than five years ago.
I mean, come on, this is the guy's job. If there's one expectation about a former NFL player when it comes to his radio show, it's that he'll be able to speak with some expertise about the NFL. I can accept that he's not a hockey expert, and doesn't know much about baseball, but he'd better know the NFL up and down.
I don't mean for this post to make you think I dislike LaVar Arrington as a person. He seems like a fine person, fairly good-natured, and while I personally don't care, he's got a history of being very charitable. But companies shouldn't (and overwhelmingly don't) employ people because they're good people. They employ people because they're good at their job. And LaVar isn't.
But I can get past a bad draft pick. He didn't work out, that's alright, it happens. I wouldn't be talking about Arrington today if that's where it stopped. But he's got his own radio show in the DC area. It's on from 2 PM - 6 PM, afternoon drive time, which means someone decided he was one of the best options they have, and whoever that is should be fired.
LaVar is awful. He comes across as naive and foolish, and he's just about the worst interviewer I've ever heard. Some commentators will offer leading questions; LaVar outright answers his own questions, then says, "Right?" He basically instructs his interviewee to use as many cliches as possible. His radio partner, Chad Dukes, has some more sense than Arrington, but he encourages LaVar enough that he's complicit in this crime. And make no mistake; what LaVar Arrington does to his radio listeners is criminal.
The worst part of it all is that I think Arrington is just not all that familiar with today's NFL. Just yesterday, the discussion focused on DeSean Jackson's comments about being happy that Donovan McNabb was out of town. That kind of discussion, a division rival talking smack about your quarterback, that's easy radio fodder. Arrington managed to make himself look like an idiot. First, he referred to McNabb's replacement as Schaub. Three times. Matt Schaub is the starting quarterback for the Houston Texans, and is fairly accomplished. Kevin Kolb is McNabb's replacement in Philadelphia.
If that were the only mistake he made, while silly, it could be chalked up to misspeaking once, then repeating the misspeak. But just a minute later, this exchange took place between LaVar and Dukes:
L: "How many teams are in the NFL? Thirty-five?"
C: "Thirty-two."
L: "Yeah, I guess there would have to be an even number."
Congratulations, LaVar Arrington. You've established yourself as the least qualified sports commentator in the Washington, DC area. Seriously, how many teams are in the NFL? I'll give you a clue, LaVar. No teams have been added to the league since you stopped playing football less than five years ago.
I mean, come on, this is the guy's job. If there's one expectation about a former NFL player when it comes to his radio show, it's that he'll be able to speak with some expertise about the NFL. I can accept that he's not a hockey expert, and doesn't know much about baseball, but he'd better know the NFL up and down.
I don't mean for this post to make you think I dislike LaVar Arrington as a person. He seems like a fine person, fairly good-natured, and while I personally don't care, he's got a history of being very charitable. But companies shouldn't (and overwhelmingly don't) employ people because they're good people. They employ people because they're good at their job. And LaVar isn't.
Twi-Night Doubleheader - Week 5 (belated)
Apologies to everyone who was expecting this post yesterday. Most of our writing staff was in Atlantic City for the weekend, and we had a hard time getting back on track. And yes, this means that it'll take into account the last seven days from today, rather than yesterday. You'll have to stomach that.
Fantasy Players of the Week
AL Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Rangers (.381, 4 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB) - Vlad is looking more and more like one of the best picks of our draft. He's forcing you to play him, even though he only qualifies at Utility.
NL Hitter: Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers (.379, 12 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB) - I hate giving my players of the week awards to the top Yahoo-rated guy from each league, but 12 runs and 8 RBI is just too much to ignore. Take note, though, of Carlos Ruiz, C, Phillies, who hit .632 with a pair of homers last week. Not bad from a catcher who's owned in only 15% of leagues.
AL Pitcher: Dallas Braden, SP, Athletics (1-0, 6 Ks, 0.00/0.00) - Jon Lester went 2-0 with 12 Ks and great averages, but perfect is perfect.
NL Pitcher: Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals (3-0, 6 Ks, 1.59/1.41)/Matt Capps, RP, Nationals (0-1, 3 SVs, 2 Ks, 1.93/0.43) - Clippard probably gets the nod, but I wanted to cite both players. The Nationals' bullpen has historically been a disaster, so the fact that it's performing at such a high level was, I thought, notable.
Reach for the Rolaids
Joe Mandi likes to complain that David Aardsma (one of my closers) has it in for Doug Fister (one of his starters). I figured he was just being emotional, but...
In 4 games in relief of Fister, Aardsma is 0-2 with one save, two blown saves. He has two strikeouts in four innings. And his ERA in those games is 11.25, with a WHIP of 3.00.
In his 8 other games, Aardsma is 0-0 with seven saves and zero blown saves. He has nine strikeouts in eight innings. His ERA is 0.00, and his WHIP is 0.25.
Maybe Joe Mandi's on to something, maybe not...but I'm strongly considering putting Aardsma on my bench for Fister's next start.
Fantasy Players of the Week
AL Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Rangers (.381, 4 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB) - Vlad is looking more and more like one of the best picks of our draft. He's forcing you to play him, even though he only qualifies at Utility.
NL Hitter: Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers (.379, 12 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB) - I hate giving my players of the week awards to the top Yahoo-rated guy from each league, but 12 runs and 8 RBI is just too much to ignore. Take note, though, of Carlos Ruiz, C, Phillies, who hit .632 with a pair of homers last week. Not bad from a catcher who's owned in only 15% of leagues.
AL Pitcher: Dallas Braden, SP, Athletics (1-0, 6 Ks, 0.00/0.00) - Jon Lester went 2-0 with 12 Ks and great averages, but perfect is perfect.
NL Pitcher: Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals (3-0, 6 Ks, 1.59/1.41)/Matt Capps, RP, Nationals (0-1, 3 SVs, 2 Ks, 1.93/0.43) - Clippard probably gets the nod, but I wanted to cite both players. The Nationals' bullpen has historically been a disaster, so the fact that it's performing at such a high level was, I thought, notable.
Reach for the Rolaids
- Clippard is available in 40% of leagues, and with 6 wins and over 1 K/IP, he's worth throwing in your lineup. The wins may not endure, but he's getting the chance to pitch in tight games, and he's pitching well.
- Bobby Jenks is getting a few days off as the closer, which means if Matt Thornton is available, you must pick him up. And if J.J. Putz is available, you should consider picking him up, too.
- Jose Contreras (yes, he's still in baseball) is in line to pick up a few save opportunities while Ryan Madson is on the DL and Brad Lidge is getting over elbow pain. With as horrible as Madson and Lidge have been in attempting to close games over the past year, don't you think you should do your part to put Contreras on more than 7% of rosters?
- Octavio Dotel has proven himself more and more hittable as his career has progressed (he's 36 now), and he's been just terrible this year. Don't be surprised if Evan Meek starts stealing save opportunities from Dotel. And if he does well, don't be surprised if Meek takes the job altogether.
Joe Mandi likes to complain that David Aardsma (one of my closers) has it in for Doug Fister (one of his starters). I figured he was just being emotional, but...
In 4 games in relief of Fister, Aardsma is 0-2 with one save, two blown saves. He has two strikeouts in four innings. And his ERA in those games is 11.25, with a WHIP of 3.00.
In his 8 other games, Aardsma is 0-0 with seven saves and zero blown saves. He has nine strikeouts in eight innings. His ERA is 0.00, and his WHIP is 0.25.
Maybe Joe Mandi's on to something, maybe not...but I'm strongly considering putting Aardsma on my bench for Fister's next start.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Steroids v. Rape
Mark McGwire has been demonized for having used steroids and (until recently) not admitting so. Barry Bonds continues to be shunned from baseball because the belief is that major league fans won't tolerate their team signing him, because of the assumption, most likely correct, that he used performance-enhancing substances during his career.
Lawrence Taylor is a member of the NFL Hall of Fame, despite a fairly long rap sheet. Will he be removed from it if this most recent (and most heinous) charge sticks? Is cheating at your job more horrible than rape? It can't be, right?
I'm trying not to rush to judgment, trying not to assume that Taylor is guilty before he's been given a chance to defend himself. But if he ends up being guilty of this crime, the NFL has to step up and say, "Despite his amazing on-field performances, we refuse to be associated with Lawrence Taylor any further. While his statistics will remain in our record books, he has been removed from the NFL Hall of Fame."
And the media needs to react with similar disgust. Otherwise, keeping McGwire and Bonds out of the baseball Hall of Fame is just petulant.
Lawrence Taylor is a member of the NFL Hall of Fame, despite a fairly long rap sheet. Will he be removed from it if this most recent (and most heinous) charge sticks? Is cheating at your job more horrible than rape? It can't be, right?
I'm trying not to rush to judgment, trying not to assume that Taylor is guilty before he's been given a chance to defend himself. But if he ends up being guilty of this crime, the NFL has to step up and say, "Despite his amazing on-field performances, we refuse to be associated with Lawrence Taylor any further. While his statistics will remain in our record books, he has been removed from the NFL Hall of Fame."
And the media needs to react with similar disgust. Otherwise, keeping McGwire and Bonds out of the baseball Hall of Fame is just petulant.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Tasered
By now, I'm sure all of you have heard about the kid who ran on the field at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and got Tasered for his transgression. On the radio and on sports websites, there's been a lot of to-do about whether the officer overstepped his authority, and whether there should be changes to stadium policies going forward. Certainly there is some level of merit on each side of this discussion.
Those who argue that the officer acted excessively would point to the 99% of field trespassers who are similar to the boy who was Tasered; non-malicious, reckless, but not violently so. Most people who run onto the field are simply foolish people making foolish decisions, the kind of foolish decisions that a few more ladies in my zip code could afford to make.
Additionally, there's the legal concept of infraction versus punishment. Does the act of trespassing on the field of play warrant the use of a Taser to subdue the trespasser? Would we be comfortable with all trespassers on the field of play being Tasered?
The other side of the argument mostly points to the two jackasses (a father and son) who stormed onto the field in Chicago and attacked the Royals' first base coach Tom Gamboa. Would the threatening of Taser use have prevented the attack? That's a difficult question to answer. The father, by the way, received 30 months of probation...for battery...on TV.
Additionally, the use of a Taser to subdue suspects who are belligerent, violent, or attempt to escape has been accepted nationwide as a viable method. It has a regulated amount of charge, which theoretically prevents incidents of excessive police force. The Taser has been approved for civilian use in 43 states. The debate about the safety of Tasers rages on, but at least for today, they're considered part of the police officer's arsenal to "protect and serve."
I have trouble staying unbiased in these situations. As many of you know, my father was a police officer, and as a result, I view the average police officer as being honorable and responsible. Extending that sentiment towards all police officers is not necessarily rational, and I accept that. But I do believe that, as long as Tasers are considered safe and legal by state and local governments, they are an option for officers to use as instructed and as necessary.
The general concept people have is, "If a guy is violent, Tase him. If not, just run him down." What if Prefontaine decided he wanted to get on the field and prevent a game from ending? The guy could outrun any police officer, and probably several police officers, for ten, twenty, maybe thirty minutes? Or what if A.J. Hawk got loose on a baseball diamond? At any point, he could go from carefree dodger to shortstop crusher.
Now, pretend instead it's A.J. Feeley...but he's got a knife in his pocket. He's running around, la di da, but his plan is to stab Joakim Soria, because he's crazy, and he thinks if he stabs Soria, his White Sox will be able to beat whatever reliever comes in to replace him? I just think that anyone who invades the field of play already knows that they're going to be arrested, possibly tackled, definitely manhandled.
The reality is that you can't judge someone's intent when they run on the field, other than that they intend to stir something up. The only reason you run onto the field is if there's something on the field that you want to touch. For a lot of people, maybe most, it's just those three minutes of quasi-fame when the people in the stands watch to see how long you can run around before getting nabbed. For a few people, it's touching the jersey of their favorite player. For the very rare psychotic, it's injury, of themselves or others.
The Taser may seem a bit extreme, but it ends the incident quickly, and, according to most accounts, is independently safe. The kid who got Tased in Philadelphia is fine, other than being clearly mentally retarded. Seriously, he apparently called his dad to ask if he could run on the field? So not only is he a delinquent, but he's got some sense that his dad might encourage his activities? His mom seems to be the only sensible person, apologizing for the kid's idiotic act, and saying this gem, similar to something I'm sure we've all heard our mothers say: "It was stupid. It was just absolutely stupid."
I say, when you go on the field, you're aware that you're breaking the law, and doing it in broad daylight. You can't be surprised when you get Tased because you evade security. And I don't fault any officer who, after giving the person a chance to yield, uses appropriate force to end an encounter.
Those who argue that the officer acted excessively would point to the 99% of field trespassers who are similar to the boy who was Tasered; non-malicious, reckless, but not violently so. Most people who run onto the field are simply foolish people making foolish decisions, the kind of foolish decisions that a few more ladies in my zip code could afford to make.
Additionally, there's the legal concept of infraction versus punishment. Does the act of trespassing on the field of play warrant the use of a Taser to subdue the trespasser? Would we be comfortable with all trespassers on the field of play being Tasered?
The other side of the argument mostly points to the two jackasses (a father and son) who stormed onto the field in Chicago and attacked the Royals' first base coach Tom Gamboa. Would the threatening of Taser use have prevented the attack? That's a difficult question to answer. The father, by the way, received 30 months of probation...for battery...on TV.
Additionally, the use of a Taser to subdue suspects who are belligerent, violent, or attempt to escape has been accepted nationwide as a viable method. It has a regulated amount of charge, which theoretically prevents incidents of excessive police force. The Taser has been approved for civilian use in 43 states. The debate about the safety of Tasers rages on, but at least for today, they're considered part of the police officer's arsenal to "protect and serve."
I have trouble staying unbiased in these situations. As many of you know, my father was a police officer, and as a result, I view the average police officer as being honorable and responsible. Extending that sentiment towards all police officers is not necessarily rational, and I accept that. But I do believe that, as long as Tasers are considered safe and legal by state and local governments, they are an option for officers to use as instructed and as necessary.
The general concept people have is, "If a guy is violent, Tase him. If not, just run him down." What if Prefontaine decided he wanted to get on the field and prevent a game from ending? The guy could outrun any police officer, and probably several police officers, for ten, twenty, maybe thirty minutes? Or what if A.J. Hawk got loose on a baseball diamond? At any point, he could go from carefree dodger to shortstop crusher.
Now, pretend instead it's A.J. Feeley...but he's got a knife in his pocket. He's running around, la di da, but his plan is to stab Joakim Soria, because he's crazy, and he thinks if he stabs Soria, his White Sox will be able to beat whatever reliever comes in to replace him? I just think that anyone who invades the field of play already knows that they're going to be arrested, possibly tackled, definitely manhandled.
The reality is that you can't judge someone's intent when they run on the field, other than that they intend to stir something up. The only reason you run onto the field is if there's something on the field that you want to touch. For a lot of people, maybe most, it's just those three minutes of quasi-fame when the people in the stands watch to see how long you can run around before getting nabbed. For a few people, it's touching the jersey of their favorite player. For the very rare psychotic, it's injury, of themselves or others.
The Taser may seem a bit extreme, but it ends the incident quickly, and, according to most accounts, is independently safe. The kid who got Tased in Philadelphia is fine, other than being clearly mentally retarded. Seriously, he apparently called his dad to ask if he could run on the field? So not only is he a delinquent, but he's got some sense that his dad might encourage his activities? His mom seems to be the only sensible person, apologizing for the kid's idiotic act, and saying this gem, similar to something I'm sure we've all heard our mothers say: "It was stupid. It was just absolutely stupid."
I say, when you go on the field, you're aware that you're breaking the law, and doing it in broad daylight. You can't be surprised when you get Tased because you evade security. And I don't fault any officer who, after giving the person a chance to yield, uses appropriate force to end an encounter.
Monday, May 3, 2010
Twi-Night Doubleheader - Week 4
Four weeks in, and all we've gotten is four weeks older.
Fantasy Players of the Week
AL Hitter: Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays (.417, 7 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SB) - Kind of a down week for the American League, but no Longoria owner is unhappy with how his week went.
NL Hitter: Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Diamondbacks (.391, 5 R, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 3 SB) - Looks like I probably should've let my offer of Carlos Lee for Gonzalez sit up there for a bit and force the issue.
AL Pitcher: Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins (2-0, 19 Ks, 1.80/1.07) - Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke also had fantastic weeks, but neither of them pick up a pair of wins. Greinke is particularly perplexing, giving up 1 run over 15 innings and not being able to pick up a victory. The Royals apparently really are that terrible.
NL Pitcher: Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins (2-0, 20 Ks, 1.80/0.73) - Johnson gets the nod over Yovani Gallardo, who also had two wins, but couldn't match Johnson's fantastic WHIP.
Go Pick Up
AL Hitter: Brett Gardner (49%) and Alberto Callaspo (41%) are still sitting out there, just waiting for someone like you to give them a home. Seriously, don't be an idiot. If they're out there in your league, go get them.
NL Hitter: Kosuke Fukudome (41%) - After two completely uninteresting fantasy seasons, Fukudome has started off hot, particularly in the run production categories (14 runs, 17 RBI). I don't expect him to hit .342 this season, but it's possible he's finally settled in against major league pitching, and can be productive for you.
AL Pitcher: Doug Fister (31%) - I guess it's the lack of strikeouts that's keeping you away (16 Ks in 35 IP)? Everything else looks good, and Fister isn't showing any signs of slowing down yet, and now has given up 2 or fewer runs in each of his five starts this season.
NL Pitcher: Jaime Garcia (49%) - I don't want to imply that I think he's the next Chris Carpenter, but he could be the next Barry Zito. Well, without the Cy Young award, probably. But he's got good stuff and he's on a team that should put him in line for plenty of wins.
Top Five Teams Against Whom To Always Start Your SPs
Fantasy Players of the Week
AL Hitter: Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays (.417, 7 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SB) - Kind of a down week for the American League, but no Longoria owner is unhappy with how his week went.
NL Hitter: Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Diamondbacks (.391, 5 R, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 3 SB) - Looks like I probably should've let my offer of Carlos Lee for Gonzalez sit up there for a bit and force the issue.
AL Pitcher: Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins (2-0, 19 Ks, 1.80/1.07) - Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke also had fantastic weeks, but neither of them pick up a pair of wins. Greinke is particularly perplexing, giving up 1 run over 15 innings and not being able to pick up a victory. The Royals apparently really are that terrible.
NL Pitcher: Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins (2-0, 20 Ks, 1.80/0.73) - Johnson gets the nod over Yovani Gallardo, who also had two wins, but couldn't match Johnson's fantastic WHIP.
Go Pick Up
AL Hitter: Brett Gardner (49%) and Alberto Callaspo (41%) are still sitting out there, just waiting for someone like you to give them a home. Seriously, don't be an idiot. If they're out there in your league, go get them.
NL Hitter: Kosuke Fukudome (41%) - After two completely uninteresting fantasy seasons, Fukudome has started off hot, particularly in the run production categories (14 runs, 17 RBI). I don't expect him to hit .342 this season, but it's possible he's finally settled in against major league pitching, and can be productive for you.
AL Pitcher: Doug Fister (31%) - I guess it's the lack of strikeouts that's keeping you away (16 Ks in 35 IP)? Everything else looks good, and Fister isn't showing any signs of slowing down yet, and now has given up 2 or fewer runs in each of his five starts this season.
NL Pitcher: Jaime Garcia (49%) - I don't want to imply that I think he's the next Chris Carpenter, but he could be the next Barry Zito. Well, without the Cy Young award, probably. But he's got good stuff and he's on a team that should put him in line for plenty of wins.
Top Five Teams Against Whom To Always Start Your SPs
- Houston Astros - But you already knew that. Even with Berkman returning to the lineup and Carlos Lee starting to heat up, the team is still terrible. Roy Oswalt would have to pitch out of his mind to win 15 games on this team.
- Seattle Mariners - So apparently this "defense first" mentality just makes you lose close games. The Mariners are tied with Houston for the fewest home runs (9) and scored 4 runs over the weekend's three games against Texas.
- Pittsburgh Pirates - With a team ERA of 6.79, you can usually count on Pittsburgh starters to give up enough runs to give your starter a chance at a win. Just make sure your starter isn't Clayton Kershaw; the Pirates have won both starts against him this season.
- Kansas City Royals - They're actually in the middle of the pack in slugging percentage, and in the top 10 in batting average, but this hasn't translated into wins or runs. And I have a hard time thinking that the Royals will end up quite so high in those two stats, meaning they're going to get worse.
- Baltimore Orioles - They've started to right the ship a little bit, but now it looks like Brian Roberts could be out for months. That doesn't bode well for the team with the 5th-fewest runs in baseball.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
The Washington Redskins Offseason
Initially I was going to just talk about the Redskins' draft, but I figured there was no harm, and in fact something to gain by expanding the topic, so I did just that.
(Not So) Sexy Rexy
Rex Grossman was brought in, and while the company line was that Jason Campbell was still the starter, talk of an "open competition" festered, and the writing was pretty much on the wall. At this point, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen looked like potential draft picks for the 'Skins, so the expectation was that either Grossman or Campbell would be a placeholder while the rookie got himself up to speed.
New Running Backs
Three new halfbacks are in town, and each of them has a level of intrigue.
Larry Johnson had back-to-back 1700+ yard seasons for the Kansas City Chiefs, but that was 4 years ago. It remains to be seen if he can recapture some of that magic.
Willie Parker was a home run threat for the Steelers during both of their Super Bowl runs, setting the all-time record for longest rush in a Super Bowl in 2006. But his productivity has slid recently, and last year he was relegated to a backup role when Rashard Mendenhall burst onto the scene.
Ryan Torain has essentially played in one game as a pro, and while he did well (12 rushes for 68 yards and a TD against Cleveland in 2008 as a member of Mike Shanahan's Denver Broncos), he obviously is unproven. Shanahan must like him, though, so you could see him breaking into the rotation.
These three acquisitions point to the Redskins potentially parting ways with Clinton Portis, or at least down-sizing his role. I'm not opposed to that, as Portis has been "too big for his britches" for a year and a half now.
Mc-Nabbing a Quarterback
You see what I did there? I incorporated the concept of theft into the title of this section, which is appropriate, because I really believe that the Redskins trade of their second round pick and a mid-round pick next year for Donovan McNabb is a steal. While he's not in the first tier of quarterbacks (where Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers reside), he's right behind them, and in watching the Eagles over the past few years, I think McNabb still has the ability to make a play at any time, which is something you haven't been able to say about a quarterback in Washington for...twenty years? Maybe more?
This was obviously by far the biggest acquisition the Redskins made this offseason, and I think it immediately puts them into wild card contention.
A Name Worth Mentioning
When Adam Carriker was selected by the St. Louis Rams in the first round of the 2007 draft, I didn't know much about him, but I knew he had the kind of name you'd expect out of an elite player, so I figured he must be pretty good. It's kind of silly to admit that, but seriously, when you hear names like Peyton Manning, Golden Tate, Knowshon Moreno, and Anquan Boldin, you just know they're football players. Carriker had that kind of name.
So naturally, when he struggled early on, I was pretty surprised. The Redskins dropped back 28 picks in the 5th round to pick up the former first rounder, and I won't lie, I'm a little excited about what he could do. I mean, the talent was there for him to be an early pick in the draft. Hopefully Mike Shanahan and Jim Haslett can turn around Carriker's career, even if it's just to the point of being a starter. The price was right.
The Redskins' Brief Foray Into NFL Draft
Washington held the #4 overall pick in this year's NFL draft, and I don't think I'm the only one who was really hoping the 'Skins would be able to trade down a few slots, get some additional picks, and still acquire one of the top four offensive tackles, someone who can protect McNabb. They went 1/2, staying at the #4 slot and selecting Trent Williams out of Oklahoma. Everything I hear is that A) Williams is a great fit for Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme, and B) Williams and Rutgers tackle Anthony Davis have the highest upsides of offensive linemen in the draft. I have to trust other people on evaluating offensive linemen, so I feel pretty good about the move.
I can't speak much to the rest of the draft, because they only took players I've never heard of. The Redskins traded down a couple times in the later rounds and acquired extra picks, which I approve of as a general policy. I hope that their two late offensive linemen selections, C Erik Cook and OL Selvish Capers, are uniquely suited to the zone-blocking scheme, and will end up being shrewd moves. But that's really just blind hope.
The Campbell Era Ends
As expected, the Redskins finally traded away Jason Campbell. Somewhat surprising, though, was the marginal price that he commanded in the trade market. The Oakland Raiders acquired Campbell in exchange for a 4th round pick...in 2012. It would have been nice to trade Campbell for a commodity that helps right away, but I guess you take what you can get. If there's no market, there's no market. And really, you can't expect there to be much of a market for a QB outside of the top 20, which Campbell most certainly is.
I think a lot of local fans have a slightly misguided concept of how good Campbell was, and how good he could've been "if he had an offensive line," as the line tends to go. As a direct comparison, I offer Aaron Rodgers, superstar QB for the Green Bay Packers.
I do wish the best for him this season and going forward, as I do think he was put into a tough situation and handled it with class. But I never want him to be either of my favorite teams' starting quarterbacks again.
Going Forward
So that's what we're looking at so far. I don't think the Redskins are done just yet; I could certainly see them signing former Cowboy Flozell Adams for a year or two to add some offensive line depth. And I think they'll still likely look at other opportunities to trade disgruntled defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. But even if no further changes are made, I think we're looking at a very productive offseason for the 'Skins. The addition of McNabb alone adds a couple of wins, and if Shanahan adds a couple more, we're looking at a playoff-caliber team.
And that's all we Washington fans want. We just want the opportunity to be disappointed in December and January. We want to care just enough to get slapped down by the hand of god.
And yes, I'm alluding to the Washington Capitals' crushing loss in seven games to the Montreal Canadiens. I'll try to talk about what happened at some point, but not now. I have not the heart to say. For me, the pain is still too near. But someday, when I've cooled off, we'll have a heart-to-heart about it, just you and me. Promise.
(Not So) Sexy Rexy
Rex Grossman was brought in, and while the company line was that Jason Campbell was still the starter, talk of an "open competition" festered, and the writing was pretty much on the wall. At this point, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen looked like potential draft picks for the 'Skins, so the expectation was that either Grossman or Campbell would be a placeholder while the rookie got himself up to speed.
New Running Backs
Three new halfbacks are in town, and each of them has a level of intrigue.
Larry Johnson had back-to-back 1700+ yard seasons for the Kansas City Chiefs, but that was 4 years ago. It remains to be seen if he can recapture some of that magic.
Willie Parker was a home run threat for the Steelers during both of their Super Bowl runs, setting the all-time record for longest rush in a Super Bowl in 2006. But his productivity has slid recently, and last year he was relegated to a backup role when Rashard Mendenhall burst onto the scene.
Ryan Torain has essentially played in one game as a pro, and while he did well (12 rushes for 68 yards and a TD against Cleveland in 2008 as a member of Mike Shanahan's Denver Broncos), he obviously is unproven. Shanahan must like him, though, so you could see him breaking into the rotation.
These three acquisitions point to the Redskins potentially parting ways with Clinton Portis, or at least down-sizing his role. I'm not opposed to that, as Portis has been "too big for his britches" for a year and a half now.
Mc-Nabbing a Quarterback
You see what I did there? I incorporated the concept of theft into the title of this section, which is appropriate, because I really believe that the Redskins trade of their second round pick and a mid-round pick next year for Donovan McNabb is a steal. While he's not in the first tier of quarterbacks (where Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers reside), he's right behind them, and in watching the Eagles over the past few years, I think McNabb still has the ability to make a play at any time, which is something you haven't been able to say about a quarterback in Washington for...twenty years? Maybe more?
This was obviously by far the biggest acquisition the Redskins made this offseason, and I think it immediately puts them into wild card contention.
A Name Worth Mentioning
When Adam Carriker was selected by the St. Louis Rams in the first round of the 2007 draft, I didn't know much about him, but I knew he had the kind of name you'd expect out of an elite player, so I figured he must be pretty good. It's kind of silly to admit that, but seriously, when you hear names like Peyton Manning, Golden Tate, Knowshon Moreno, and Anquan Boldin, you just know they're football players. Carriker had that kind of name.
So naturally, when he struggled early on, I was pretty surprised. The Redskins dropped back 28 picks in the 5th round to pick up the former first rounder, and I won't lie, I'm a little excited about what he could do. I mean, the talent was there for him to be an early pick in the draft. Hopefully Mike Shanahan and Jim Haslett can turn around Carriker's career, even if it's just to the point of being a starter. The price was right.
The Redskins' Brief Foray Into NFL Draft
Washington held the #4 overall pick in this year's NFL draft, and I don't think I'm the only one who was really hoping the 'Skins would be able to trade down a few slots, get some additional picks, and still acquire one of the top four offensive tackles, someone who can protect McNabb. They went 1/2, staying at the #4 slot and selecting Trent Williams out of Oklahoma. Everything I hear is that A) Williams is a great fit for Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme, and B) Williams and Rutgers tackle Anthony Davis have the highest upsides of offensive linemen in the draft. I have to trust other people on evaluating offensive linemen, so I feel pretty good about the move.
I can't speak much to the rest of the draft, because they only took players I've never heard of. The Redskins traded down a couple times in the later rounds and acquired extra picks, which I approve of as a general policy. I hope that their two late offensive linemen selections, C Erik Cook and OL Selvish Capers, are uniquely suited to the zone-blocking scheme, and will end up being shrewd moves. But that's really just blind hope.
The Campbell Era Ends
As expected, the Redskins finally traded away Jason Campbell. Somewhat surprising, though, was the marginal price that he commanded in the trade market. The Oakland Raiders acquired Campbell in exchange for a 4th round pick...in 2012. It would have been nice to trade Campbell for a commodity that helps right away, but I guess you take what you can get. If there's no market, there's no market. And really, you can't expect there to be much of a market for a QB outside of the top 20, which Campbell most certainly is.
I think a lot of local fans have a slightly misguided concept of how good Campbell was, and how good he could've been "if he had an offensive line," as the line tends to go. As a direct comparison, I offer Aaron Rodgers, superstar QB for the Green Bay Packers.
- Rodgers - 64.7% completions, 4,434 yards, 30 TDs, 7 INTs, 50 sacks for 306 yards, 10 fumbles, 4 lost.
- Campbell - 64.5% completions, 3,618 yards, 20 TDs, 15 INTs, 43 sacks for 285 yards, 11 fumbles, 3 lost.
I do wish the best for him this season and going forward, as I do think he was put into a tough situation and handled it with class. But I never want him to be either of my favorite teams' starting quarterbacks again.
Going Forward
So that's what we're looking at so far. I don't think the Redskins are done just yet; I could certainly see them signing former Cowboy Flozell Adams for a year or two to add some offensive line depth. And I think they'll still likely look at other opportunities to trade disgruntled defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. But even if no further changes are made, I think we're looking at a very productive offseason for the 'Skins. The addition of McNabb alone adds a couple of wins, and if Shanahan adds a couple more, we're looking at a playoff-caliber team.
And that's all we Washington fans want. We just want the opportunity to be disappointed in December and January. We want to care just enough to get slapped down by the hand of god.
And yes, I'm alluding to the Washington Capitals' crushing loss in seven games to the Montreal Canadiens. I'll try to talk about what happened at some point, but not now. I have not the heart to say. For me, the pain is still too near. But someday, when I've cooled off, we'll have a heart-to-heart about it, just you and me. Promise.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Layouts
We'll be trying out a few new layouts over the next couple of months. While I liked the colors of the previous layout, we were unable to adjust the width of the text area, which meant a lot of scrolling, and articles that appeared exorbitantly long. So, specifically, we'll be trying out templates that stretch the full width of the screen.
The current one, which has an orange headline bar, is called Sand Dollar. Let me know what you think of it, particularly if you dislike it.
The current one, which has an orange headline bar, is called Sand Dollar. Let me know what you think of it, particularly if you dislike it.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
NFL Draft 2010 - Rounds 2-7
First round analysis can be found here.
Picks
The Vikings traded out of the first round, but put themselves behind the Colts, Saints, and Rams, three teams who wouldn't take a quarterback. So, with Brett Favre's future in question and Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels unlikely to be long-term options, I expected/hoped that Minnesota would snag Jimmy Clausen at great value. They didn't, so hopefully Favre will be back in 2010.
Clausen meanwhile ended up with the Panthers. The Panthers, who were without a first round pick, ended up with a very appealing quarterback option with the 48th pick in the draft. I'm not sure why they took QB Armanti Edwards in the third round (though he's likely to change positions) and Tony Pike in the sixth round after grabbing Clausen, but one thing is for sure: the Panthers are committed to finding a new quarterback.
The Ravens traded out of the first round, picked up 3rd and 4th round picks, and still got a first-round talent in Sergio Kindle. Unbelievable how this team is able to constantly acquire great players at great value. If I didn't dislike them so, they'd be the kind of team I'd love to root for.
I saw mock drafts in March suggest that the Raiders might take Bruce Campbell with their first round pick because of his excellent combine performance. The fact that he was available in the fourth round makes me think two things: first, the league is cooling off on dramatically changing a player's draft stock based on a few workouts, and second, despite general opinion, the Raiders have some idea what they're doing.
Trades
The Vikings traded up to grab Toby Gerhart, an interesting player, but one who Minnesota must like a lot more than I do, because I just couldn't see giving up a third rounder to move up 11 spots to make the pick. I could be wrong, though; my brother thinks he's going to be fantastic.
The Seattle Seahawks traded down a couple picks to acquire RB LenDale White, who'll be reunited with his old coach at USC, Pete Carroll. White showed flashes of being a very good short yardage back, and he could be a nice complement to the speed and elusiveness of Justin Forsett. The Seahawks also traded their 5th round pick to the Jets for Leon Washington, giving them several options going into training camp. The backfield will give fantasy owners fits, but could be productive in the world of, you know, real football.
There were several other trades made in the later rounds, but mostly they involved teams selecting players I've never heard of, so I don't feel qualified to talk about them.
Coming up, I've got an all-Redskins article, which will evaluate the Redskins' offseason moves, with an obvious emphasis on the draft.
Drive home safely everybody.
Picks
The Vikings traded out of the first round, but put themselves behind the Colts, Saints, and Rams, three teams who wouldn't take a quarterback. So, with Brett Favre's future in question and Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels unlikely to be long-term options, I expected/hoped that Minnesota would snag Jimmy Clausen at great value. They didn't, so hopefully Favre will be back in 2010.
Clausen meanwhile ended up with the Panthers. The Panthers, who were without a first round pick, ended up with a very appealing quarterback option with the 48th pick in the draft. I'm not sure why they took QB Armanti Edwards in the third round (though he's likely to change positions) and Tony Pike in the sixth round after grabbing Clausen, but one thing is for sure: the Panthers are committed to finding a new quarterback.
The Ravens traded out of the first round, picked up 3rd and 4th round picks, and still got a first-round talent in Sergio Kindle. Unbelievable how this team is able to constantly acquire great players at great value. If I didn't dislike them so, they'd be the kind of team I'd love to root for.
I saw mock drafts in March suggest that the Raiders might take Bruce Campbell with their first round pick because of his excellent combine performance. The fact that he was available in the fourth round makes me think two things: first, the league is cooling off on dramatically changing a player's draft stock based on a few workouts, and second, despite general opinion, the Raiders have some idea what they're doing.
Trades
The Vikings traded up to grab Toby Gerhart, an interesting player, but one who Minnesota must like a lot more than I do, because I just couldn't see giving up a third rounder to move up 11 spots to make the pick. I could be wrong, though; my brother thinks he's going to be fantastic.
The Seattle Seahawks traded down a couple picks to acquire RB LenDale White, who'll be reunited with his old coach at USC, Pete Carroll. White showed flashes of being a very good short yardage back, and he could be a nice complement to the speed and elusiveness of Justin Forsett. The Seahawks also traded their 5th round pick to the Jets for Leon Washington, giving them several options going into training camp. The backfield will give fantasy owners fits, but could be productive in the world of, you know, real football.
There were several other trades made in the later rounds, but mostly they involved teams selecting players I've never heard of, so I don't feel qualified to talk about them.
Coming up, I've got an all-Redskins article, which will evaluate the Redskins' offseason moves, with an obvious emphasis on the draft.
Drive home safely everybody.
Monday, April 26, 2010
NFL Draft 2010 - First Round
So we're going to split this into several posts. The first one (this one) will be about the players selected and trades made in the first round of the NFL draft, last Thursday night. It won't include any selections by the Washington Redskins, which I'll cover in a Redskin-specific post in the near future.
First things first, the St. Louis Rams took Sam Bradford as the number one pick in the 2010 NFL draft. A lot of people like Sam Bradford, and I'm one of them. I think he's going to be a good pro quarterback. But for the Rams, I think grabbing one of the premier defensive tackles would've been a better move. Last week's pre-draft post goes over most of the logic behind taking someone else, but just for the record, I'll let you know that this quote was mine:
I think Eric Berry was skilled enough to go #1 overall, as I really think he'll have that kind of long-term impact, but I get that teams are more willing to invest in quarterbacks and defensive linemen. Still, I think he'll help Kansas City in a big way, and wouldn't have been mad if Washington had elected to take him instead of an offensive lineman.
I've heard some talk about the Raiders' selection of Rolando McClain being surprising and a reach, but he was creeping up draft boards all week. It's obvious he's perceived to be a potentially great player, so I'm not going to say Al Davis made a bad move here. Now, Darrius Heyward-Bey last year over Michael Crabtree was just silly.
The San Francisco 49ers grabbed potentially the top tackle and the top guard in the draft, giving them a completely rejuvenated offensive line. Mike Singletary clearly is putting his stamp on this team, and you have to think his hard-nosed mentality can rub off on these guys. If it does, they could both be stars.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers got Maurkice Pouncey at 18, and the Green Bay Packers nabbed Brian Bulaga at 23. Apparently everyone else though that it was important to give a couple of very solid teams the chance to dramatically improve their offensive lines. Well done, NFL teams.
Picks 24 and 25 couldn't be more different. Dallas took Dez Bryant at 24; he's a kid with character questions but a world of talent. Meanwhile, Denver traded up to the 25 slot and acquired Tim Tebow, a god-fearing, hard-working project of a quarterback. I hate the idea of taking a quarterback like Tebow in the first round, when his skills don't really scream quarterback. Tarvaris Jackson was a project in 2006 when the Vikings took him in the second round, and he's still a work in progress...hopefully. Still, Tebow could end up being very productive, and certainly his work ethic screams leadership.
I think the Colts did great to acquire Jerry Hughes with the 31st overall pick. His size doesn't wow you, but everything else about him does. The Colts just know how to do business.
Well, that's the first round for you. Next, I'll look at the happenings in the remainder of the draft, including some of the notable trades that took place. See you soon.
First things first, the St. Louis Rams took Sam Bradford as the number one pick in the 2010 NFL draft. A lot of people like Sam Bradford, and I'm one of them. I think he's going to be a good pro quarterback. But for the Rams, I think grabbing one of the premier defensive tackles would've been a better move. Last week's pre-draft post goes over most of the logic behind taking someone else, but just for the record, I'll let you know that this quote was mine:
"First off, I acknowledge the importance of a quarterback. It's extremely rare that a single player at any other position takes their team to the playoffs; you're talking about Barry Sanders and Warren Sapp in those instances, a couple of all-time greats. But I'm going with Ndamukong Suh, and here's why. First, he's probably the safest bet for long-term production, with the potential to in fact be one of those amazing players who can put a team on their backs. More importantly, I don't know that Sam Bradford is the best quarterback in the draft, and I'd be loathe to take Bradford and have Jimmy Clausen blossom into a top-tier signal-caller. Suh saves me from that possibility."Seeing how the draft ended up playing out only makes me more certain that a defensive tackle was the way to go. Clausen being available at the Rams' second round pick means that they could have still likely acquired the #2 quarterback on every reasonable person's draft board, but been able to draft a potentially franchise-changing defensive player like Suh or Gerald McCoy.
I think Eric Berry was skilled enough to go #1 overall, as I really think he'll have that kind of long-term impact, but I get that teams are more willing to invest in quarterbacks and defensive linemen. Still, I think he'll help Kansas City in a big way, and wouldn't have been mad if Washington had elected to take him instead of an offensive lineman.
I've heard some talk about the Raiders' selection of Rolando McClain being surprising and a reach, but he was creeping up draft boards all week. It's obvious he's perceived to be a potentially great player, so I'm not going to say Al Davis made a bad move here. Now, Darrius Heyward-Bey last year over Michael Crabtree was just silly.
The San Francisco 49ers grabbed potentially the top tackle and the top guard in the draft, giving them a completely rejuvenated offensive line. Mike Singletary clearly is putting his stamp on this team, and you have to think his hard-nosed mentality can rub off on these guys. If it does, they could both be stars.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers got Maurkice Pouncey at 18, and the Green Bay Packers nabbed Brian Bulaga at 23. Apparently everyone else though that it was important to give a couple of very solid teams the chance to dramatically improve their offensive lines. Well done, NFL teams.
Picks 24 and 25 couldn't be more different. Dallas took Dez Bryant at 24; he's a kid with character questions but a world of talent. Meanwhile, Denver traded up to the 25 slot and acquired Tim Tebow, a god-fearing, hard-working project of a quarterback. I hate the idea of taking a quarterback like Tebow in the first round, when his skills don't really scream quarterback. Tarvaris Jackson was a project in 2006 when the Vikings took him in the second round, and he's still a work in progress...hopefully. Still, Tebow could end up being very productive, and certainly his work ethic screams leadership.
I think the Colts did great to acquire Jerry Hughes with the 31st overall pick. His size doesn't wow you, but everything else about him does. The Colts just know how to do business.
Well, that's the first round for you. Next, I'll look at the happenings in the remainder of the draft, including some of the notable trades that took place. See you soon.
Twi-Night Doubleheader - Week 3
Fantasy Players of the Week
AL Hitter: Kendry Morales, 1B, Angels (.542, 7 R, 3 HR, 10 RBI) - Morales was one of the bigger question marks coming into this season, but so far, it's pretty obvious that his breakout 2009 was just the beginning.
NL Hitter: Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, Diamondbacks (.421, 5 R, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB) - After a slow start, Reynolds went on a tear last week, more than doubling his RBI output on the season. And he's likely now unavailable in a trade.
AL Pitcher: John Danks, SP, White Sox (2-0, 14 Ks, 1.69/0.69) - Danks had a great week, even outdueling laser hot David Price in a game against the Rays. His second great start helps him edge Phil Hughes' near no-hitter.
NL Pitcher: Mike Pelfrey, SP, Mets (2-0, 9 Ks, 0.00/1.33) - The WHIP is a little higher than you'd like, but all you can really ask of a guy is to give up no runs and get the win, and Pelfrey did that twice last week. Would've been nice if he pitched like this back when I drafted him last year.
Go Pick Up
AL Hitter: Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees (36% owned) - In case you haven't noticed, Gardner is getting regular playing time in the Yankees' lineup. That means he shouldn't have any trouble blowing past his career-high 48 runs from a year ago. He's also got plus speed, and the Yankees love sending him, so his 9 SB are just the beginning. His .327 batting average is probably an aberration, but .290 isn't unreasonable at all.
NL Hitter: Scott Rolen, 3B, Reds (28%) - Rolen is looking like he did a half a decade ago when he was healthy and productive. The chances of him continuing to be both are pretty slim, but you gotta ride him while he's hot.
AL Pitcher: Joel Zumaya, RP, Tigers (13% owned) - Don't necessarily count on him getting more wins (he's 2-0), but it looks like he's recaptured his rookie pitching form. Even better, he hasn't walked a batter yet in 12 IP. Closer Jose Valverde has been very good as well, so I wouldn't expect Zumaya to wrestle the closer role from him, but good innings are good innings, and Zumaya may have quite a few of them to offer.
NL Pitcher: Livan Hernandez, SP, Nationals (18% owned) - I can't believe I'm recommending that you go pick up Hernandez, but the numbers are right there. Three starts with 7+ IP, just 2 ER over 24 innings, and a WHIP under 1.00. I'd be an irresponsible fantasy writer if I didn't tell you to go pick him up.
A Tearful Goodbye
Though it pained me to do so, I waived two of this year's draft picks from my keeper league team: Drew Stubbs, and...sigh...Chris Davis. As last year's second place finisher, it's my responsibility to act like a team wanting to win this year, and after giving me zero production from 3B, then getting demoted, Davis really was just not going to offer anything in the near future. If no one picks him up, I'll keep an eye on him, but I'm expecting someone to be willing and able to take a flier on him.
Stubbs' departure was a little easier to palate for two reasons. First, he's well behind my top four outfielders (Matt Kemp, Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios), and I've already got Carlos Lee riding the pine while he figures out what to do, so Stubbs was essentially sixth on my OF depth chart. Second, he's already cleared waivers, so I feel comfortable thinking I didn't make a big mistake. I will be interested to see how long it takes for his hits (9) to eclipse his runs (11).
AL Hitter: Kendry Morales, 1B, Angels (.542, 7 R, 3 HR, 10 RBI) - Morales was one of the bigger question marks coming into this season, but so far, it's pretty obvious that his breakout 2009 was just the beginning.
NL Hitter: Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, Diamondbacks (.421, 5 R, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB) - After a slow start, Reynolds went on a tear last week, more than doubling his RBI output on the season. And he's likely now unavailable in a trade.
AL Pitcher: John Danks, SP, White Sox (2-0, 14 Ks, 1.69/0.69) - Danks had a great week, even outdueling laser hot David Price in a game against the Rays. His second great start helps him edge Phil Hughes' near no-hitter.
NL Pitcher: Mike Pelfrey, SP, Mets (2-0, 9 Ks, 0.00/1.33) - The WHIP is a little higher than you'd like, but all you can really ask of a guy is to give up no runs and get the win, and Pelfrey did that twice last week. Would've been nice if he pitched like this back when I drafted him last year.
Go Pick Up
AL Hitter: Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees (36% owned) - In case you haven't noticed, Gardner is getting regular playing time in the Yankees' lineup. That means he shouldn't have any trouble blowing past his career-high 48 runs from a year ago. He's also got plus speed, and the Yankees love sending him, so his 9 SB are just the beginning. His .327 batting average is probably an aberration, but .290 isn't unreasonable at all.
NL Hitter: Scott Rolen, 3B, Reds (28%) - Rolen is looking like he did a half a decade ago when he was healthy and productive. The chances of him continuing to be both are pretty slim, but you gotta ride him while he's hot.
AL Pitcher: Joel Zumaya, RP, Tigers (13% owned) - Don't necessarily count on him getting more wins (he's 2-0), but it looks like he's recaptured his rookie pitching form. Even better, he hasn't walked a batter yet in 12 IP. Closer Jose Valverde has been very good as well, so I wouldn't expect Zumaya to wrestle the closer role from him, but good innings are good innings, and Zumaya may have quite a few of them to offer.
NL Pitcher: Livan Hernandez, SP, Nationals (18% owned) - I can't believe I'm recommending that you go pick up Hernandez, but the numbers are right there. Three starts with 7+ IP, just 2 ER over 24 innings, and a WHIP under 1.00. I'd be an irresponsible fantasy writer if I didn't tell you to go pick him up.
A Tearful Goodbye
Though it pained me to do so, I waived two of this year's draft picks from my keeper league team: Drew Stubbs, and...sigh...Chris Davis. As last year's second place finisher, it's my responsibility to act like a team wanting to win this year, and after giving me zero production from 3B, then getting demoted, Davis really was just not going to offer anything in the near future. If no one picks him up, I'll keep an eye on him, but I'm expecting someone to be willing and able to take a flier on him.
Stubbs' departure was a little easier to palate for two reasons. First, he's well behind my top four outfielders (Matt Kemp, Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios), and I've already got Carlos Lee riding the pine while he figures out what to do, so Stubbs was essentially sixth on my OF depth chart. Second, he's already cleared waivers, so I feel comfortable thinking I didn't make a big mistake. I will be interested to see how long it takes for his hits (9) to eclipse his runs (11).
Friday, April 23, 2010
The Abbreviated Story of Chris Davis
I know you're all expecting analysis of the first round of last night's NFL draft, but I think it's a little rash to start analyzing teams' moves before they've actually made them. The Ravens acquired several picks last night in the trade that allowed the Broncos to select Tim Tebow, but we won't know how good the trade looks for the Ravens until they use those picks.
So, in the meantime, I figured I'd talk about a guy who I drafted fairly early in our keeper fantasy league, and whose story just got at least one chapter longer: Texas Rangers' first baseman Chris Davis.
Davis grew from relative obscurity to become one of the most prolific power hitters in the minors, and by the middle of 2008, the Rangers had to call him up. He produced immediately, smacking three homers in his first 19 MLB at-bats. But the warning signs were still there, as he struck out in six of those at-bats as well. Right away he established his propensity to be a "feast or famine" kind of player, and it's very difficult for those kinds of players to stay productive over an entire season.
He finished his rookie 2008 season with 17 HR and 55 RBI (along with 88 Ks) in 80 games, and his upside made him a keeper in our fantasy league. His owner, Vandelay Industries, saw the full crushing weight of those strikeouts firsthand, as Davis struck out 110 times in 247 at-bats through June, and while he had 15 home runs, he was hitting just .202, and his inability to make consistent contact held him to just 31 RBIs through the same time frame.
Davis was demoted in the first week of July, and many fantasy owners were happy to finally be rid of the question of what to do with him. But Davis worked on his approach, and earned another call-up in late August. He still suffered from a high strikeout rate, but he found his way to a lot more singles, and hit .308 to raise his average from .202 to .238 by the end of the season. He hit only 6 homers after his call-up, but a compromise between his two major league stints would theoretically offer a .275 hitter with 25-35 homer potential. It was that potential that led me to taking him in the 3rd round of our keeper league draft (after 8 keeper rounds).
Davis has been abysmal in 2010. Going into today's games, he was hitting .188 with zero home runs and 1 RBI. His single RBI accounted for the only RBI out of first base for the Rangers this season, the worst in the majors. He's still striking out a lot (17 times in 48 ABs, making his career rate a strikeout in 34.7% of his at-bats), and his complete inability to hit left-handers (.218 and a .409 slugging percentage in 220 career at-bats) makes me think he may be destined for a platoon.
Or not. Davis was demoted to triple-A Oklahoma City this morning by the Rangers, who called up super-prospect Justin Smoak to take over at first base for Davis. Smoak has played in just 134 minor league games since being drafted in 2008, but he's hit .293 with a more palatable 20.1% strikeout rate. Smoak hasn't displayed elite power potential in the minors thus far, and Davis will get an opportunity to play every day in Oklahoma City, so a return to the Rangers for Davis isn't impossible. But he's got to work on his approach again, and revisit the changes he made at the end of 2009 that turned him into a .300 hitter, albeit briefly.
I'm not dropping him just yet, as I had already grabbed Alberto Callaspo, who you may remember I told you to go pick up. So for as long as I can afford to sit on a minor leaguer with high-end power potential, I will. But it'll be a long time before I entrust him with a lineup spot again.
So, in the meantime, I figured I'd talk about a guy who I drafted fairly early in our keeper fantasy league, and whose story just got at least one chapter longer: Texas Rangers' first baseman Chris Davis.
Davis grew from relative obscurity to become one of the most prolific power hitters in the minors, and by the middle of 2008, the Rangers had to call him up. He produced immediately, smacking three homers in his first 19 MLB at-bats. But the warning signs were still there, as he struck out in six of those at-bats as well. Right away he established his propensity to be a "feast or famine" kind of player, and it's very difficult for those kinds of players to stay productive over an entire season.
He finished his rookie 2008 season with 17 HR and 55 RBI (along with 88 Ks) in 80 games, and his upside made him a keeper in our fantasy league. His owner, Vandelay Industries, saw the full crushing weight of those strikeouts firsthand, as Davis struck out 110 times in 247 at-bats through June, and while he had 15 home runs, he was hitting just .202, and his inability to make consistent contact held him to just 31 RBIs through the same time frame.
Davis was demoted in the first week of July, and many fantasy owners were happy to finally be rid of the question of what to do with him. But Davis worked on his approach, and earned another call-up in late August. He still suffered from a high strikeout rate, but he found his way to a lot more singles, and hit .308 to raise his average from .202 to .238 by the end of the season. He hit only 6 homers after his call-up, but a compromise between his two major league stints would theoretically offer a .275 hitter with 25-35 homer potential. It was that potential that led me to taking him in the 3rd round of our keeper league draft (after 8 keeper rounds).
Davis has been abysmal in 2010. Going into today's games, he was hitting .188 with zero home runs and 1 RBI. His single RBI accounted for the only RBI out of first base for the Rangers this season, the worst in the majors. He's still striking out a lot (17 times in 48 ABs, making his career rate a strikeout in 34.7% of his at-bats), and his complete inability to hit left-handers (.218 and a .409 slugging percentage in 220 career at-bats) makes me think he may be destined for a platoon.
Or not. Davis was demoted to triple-A Oklahoma City this morning by the Rangers, who called up super-prospect Justin Smoak to take over at first base for Davis. Smoak has played in just 134 minor league games since being drafted in 2008, but he's hit .293 with a more palatable 20.1% strikeout rate. Smoak hasn't displayed elite power potential in the minors thus far, and Davis will get an opportunity to play every day in Oklahoma City, so a return to the Rangers for Davis isn't impossible. But he's got to work on his approach again, and revisit the changes he made at the end of 2009 that turned him into a .300 hitter, albeit briefly.
I'm not dropping him just yet, as I had already grabbed Alberto Callaspo, who you may remember I told you to go pick up. So for as long as I can afford to sit on a minor leaguer with high-end power potential, I will. But it'll be a long time before I entrust him with a lineup spot again.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Who Should The Rams Take With The #1 Overall Pick?
I decided to ask this question of anyone whose email address I could get my hands on. I now offer you their anonymous responses.
"Ndamukong Suh
The Rams have problems everywhere...everywhere. They aren't going to be a playoff team this year, next year or probably the year after that. Suh is the surest bet in the draft, can make an immediate impact and will probably still be around in 3 or 4 years when the Rams get out of their substantial hole...something that is 50-50 for quarterbacks. Names like JaMarcus Russell and Alex Smith should be ringing in the ears of St. Louis execs."
-Chevy Chase, MD
"Sam Bradford - They say his pro day workout was something like best seen since Aikman, and they ain't got no QB. Then again, some people say that McCoy would work better for their scheme, but since I don't know jack about their scheme: Bradford."
-Rockville, MD
"Tim Tebow, because he loves Jesus and circumcises babies."
-Rockville, MD
"I would trade down with the Redskins, get Haynesworth or Cambell from them and select Russell Okung, OT. I don't think any of the QBs are worthy of the first overall pick. I question Bradford's durability, and he played in a spread offense. I'd draft Suh if I had to stay at that pick, but would be hesitant since the last two drafts we went defense and neither of those picks panned out."
-Frederick, MD
"The Rams have to pick a QB. They are in a rebuilding stage and the best way to start that rebuild is with a QB. So that means they are going to select Bradford right? The experts would have you believe there is no other possible choice. So why hasn’t a contract been agreed to? Have there even been any contract talks between Bradford and the Rams? The Rams are going to select Jimmy Clausen. He has proven he can be successful behind a crappy o-line and an even worse defense. He has proven his durability and toughness by playing through injuries. The last thing the Rams would want is to take a QB number 1 and have that QB go out with another shoulder injury. And Clausen has played his whole career in a pro-style offense, not the spread like Bradford. Clausen is the pick. (I make no apologies for my bias opinion on all things Notre Dame football)."
-Rockville, MD
"First off, I acknowledge the importance of a quarterback. It's extremely rare that a single player at any other position takes their team to the playoffs; you're talking about Barry Sanders and Warren Sapp in those instances, a couple of all-time greats. But I'm going with Ndamukong Suh, and here's why. First, he's probably the safest bet for long-term production, with the potential to in fact be one of those amazing players who can put a team on their backs. More importantly, I don't know that Sam Bradford is the best quarterback in the draft, and I'd be loathe to take Bradford and have Jimmy Clausen blossom into a top-tier signal-caller. Suh saves me from that possibility."
-Rockville, MD
We're minutes away now. Best of luck to all the draftees...except anybody drafted by the Giants, Bears, Steelers, Cowboys, Eagles, Patriots, and, we'll say, the Chiefs.
"Ndamukong Suh
The Rams have problems everywhere...everywhere. They aren't going to be a playoff team this year, next year or probably the year after that. Suh is the surest bet in the draft, can make an immediate impact and will probably still be around in 3 or 4 years when the Rams get out of their substantial hole...something that is 50-50 for quarterbacks. Names like JaMarcus Russell and Alex Smith should be ringing in the ears of St. Louis execs."
-Chevy Chase, MD
"Sam Bradford - They say his pro day workout was something like best seen since Aikman, and they ain't got no QB. Then again, some people say that McCoy would work better for their scheme, but since I don't know jack about their scheme: Bradford."
-Rockville, MD
"Tim Tebow, because he loves Jesus and circumcises babies."
-Rockville, MD
"I would trade down with the Redskins, get Haynesworth or Cambell from them and select Russell Okung, OT. I don't think any of the QBs are worthy of the first overall pick. I question Bradford's durability, and he played in a spread offense. I'd draft Suh if I had to stay at that pick, but would be hesitant since the last two drafts we went defense and neither of those picks panned out."
-Frederick, MD
"The Rams have to pick a QB. They are in a rebuilding stage and the best way to start that rebuild is with a QB. So that means they are going to select Bradford right? The experts would have you believe there is no other possible choice. So why hasn’t a contract been agreed to? Have there even been any contract talks between Bradford and the Rams? The Rams are going to select Jimmy Clausen. He has proven he can be successful behind a crappy o-line and an even worse defense. He has proven his durability and toughness by playing through injuries. The last thing the Rams would want is to take a QB number 1 and have that QB go out with another shoulder injury. And Clausen has played his whole career in a pro-style offense, not the spread like Bradford. Clausen is the pick. (I make no apologies for my bias opinion on all things Notre Dame football)."
-Rockville, MD
"First off, I acknowledge the importance of a quarterback. It's extremely rare that a single player at any other position takes their team to the playoffs; you're talking about Barry Sanders and Warren Sapp in those instances, a couple of all-time greats. But I'm going with Ndamukong Suh, and here's why. First, he's probably the safest bet for long-term production, with the potential to in fact be one of those amazing players who can put a team on their backs. More importantly, I don't know that Sam Bradford is the best quarterback in the draft, and I'd be loathe to take Bradford and have Jimmy Clausen blossom into a top-tier signal-caller. Suh saves me from that possibility."
-Rockville, MD
We're minutes away now. Best of luck to all the draftees...except anybody drafted by the Giants, Bears, Steelers, Cowboys, Eagles, Patriots, and, we'll say, the Chiefs.
Wins Update - 4/22
As you may remember, I had employed a few strategies this year in trying to improve my position in the Wins category in our main fantasy baseball league. A few weeks in, let's take a look at how things are panning out.
I currently have five wins, tied for second-to-last place. The top two teams have 13 and 12 wins, respectively. The top team, Mercer AutoWreckers, acquired 4-win Roy Halladay from me prior to this year's keeper submissions. In retrospect, perhaps trading him and working to acquire Jon Lester (0-2, 8.44/1.88) was not the best idea.
But there are reasons to be hopeful. Phil Hughes is coming off of a fantastic start last night against the Athletics, and despite still being winless, Zack Greinke looked like his old self yesterday, allowing just three baserunners in a hard luck no-decision. I feel like I've got a pretty good pitching staff, and if Lester can get his act together, maybe the best top-to-bottom in our league. I'll give you another update on chasing wins as the league starts to take shape.
I currently have five wins, tied for second-to-last place. The top two teams have 13 and 12 wins, respectively. The top team, Mercer AutoWreckers, acquired 4-win Roy Halladay from me prior to this year's keeper submissions. In retrospect, perhaps trading him and working to acquire Jon Lester (0-2, 8.44/1.88) was not the best idea.
But there are reasons to be hopeful. Phil Hughes is coming off of a fantastic start last night against the Athletics, and despite still being winless, Zack Greinke looked like his old self yesterday, allowing just three baserunners in a hard luck no-decision. I feel like I've got a pretty good pitching staff, and if Lester can get his act together, maybe the best top-to-bottom in our league. I'll give you another update on chasing wins as the league starts to take shape.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Twenty for Thirty Update - 4/20
So it's been another two months since my last update, and unfortunately, I haven't completed any additional goals. I've made minimal progress on a couple, but it's not about "moving towards goals;" it's about accomplishing them.
In thinking about some of these goals, though, I realize now that they weren't really my goals. They were goals that seemed considerable and reasonable, but weren't really things that I was going to set out to do, because they're not that important to me. They are:
1) Buy a car.
11) Bench press 200 pounds.
12) Go an entire week without drinking any caffeinated beverage.
20) Have a 60+ second conversation with a celebrity.
I'm debating whether or not I want to replace those four, or just roll with them and see how it goes. I'd be pretty surprised if I were to accomplish any of them, given that they're not actual personal goals. I don't really want to change them, though, since the year is already four months old, and it might marginalize the whole list. I'm thinking what I'll do, actually, is create a new list of twenty every year, removing goals accomplished and those that don't really qualify, and keeping goals that I hold dear but have not yet accomplished. Yes, that's what I'll do.
But for now, I'm going to get to work writing a song.
In thinking about some of these goals, though, I realize now that they weren't really my goals. They were goals that seemed considerable and reasonable, but weren't really things that I was going to set out to do, because they're not that important to me. They are:
1) Buy a car.
11) Bench press 200 pounds.
12) Go an entire week without drinking any caffeinated beverage.
20) Have a 60+ second conversation with a celebrity.
I'm debating whether or not I want to replace those four, or just roll with them and see how it goes. I'd be pretty surprised if I were to accomplish any of them, given that they're not actual personal goals. I don't really want to change them, though, since the year is already four months old, and it might marginalize the whole list. I'm thinking what I'll do, actually, is create a new list of twenty every year, removing goals accomplished and those that don't really qualify, and keeping goals that I hold dear but have not yet accomplished. Yes, that's what I'll do.
But for now, I'm going to get to work writing a song.
2010 NFL Draft Preview
This year's NFL Draft will start on Thursday night. I'm not sure what I think of that, and probably won't be sure until it actually happens. I know that the Washington Capitals are scheduled to play Wednesday and Friday, so we'll see if I'm up for spending three straight nights on my couch watching sports.
I do know that I'll at least watch through pick #4, as I'm very interested to see what the Redskins do with their first round pick. I'd be pretty surprised if they did anything other than draft offensive tackle Russell Okung, but you never know. That's why you tune in.
But of course, the Redskins aren't the only team whose fate will be affected on Thursday night. And so, we look forward to the 2010 NFL Draft. Like last year, we'll predict the top fifteen picks and give some analysis on each.
2010 NFL Mock Draft
I do know that I'll at least watch through pick #4, as I'm very interested to see what the Redskins do with their first round pick. I'd be pretty surprised if they did anything other than draft offensive tackle Russell Okung, but you never know. That's why you tune in.
But of course, the Redskins aren't the only team whose fate will be affected on Thursday night. And so, we look forward to the 2010 NFL Draft. Like last year, we'll predict the top fifteen picks and give some analysis on each.
2010 NFL Mock Draft
- The St. Louis Rams select Sam Bradford, quarterback, Oklahoma. Not much surprise here at this point, with how much discussion there has been about Bradford's rise up everyone's draft board, but remember right after the NCAA football season ended? Ndamukong Suh was everyone's #1 pick. I guess we shouldn't be surprised when a quarterback ends up going #1 overall, though. Seven of the past ten first overall selections have been quarterbacks.
- The Detroit Lions select Ndamukong Suh, defensive tackle, Nebraska. I don't generally get into college football, but I rooted like crazy for Nebraska when they played Texas in the Big 12 title game. A loss by Texas could have forced Cincinnati, Boise State, or TCU into the BCS title game, which is all I've ever wanted out of college football. Anyways, Suh is an elite defensive line talent, and the Lions are still the kind of team that just needs players.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Gerald McCoy, defensive tackle, Oklahoma. There's been some debate over which elite defensive tackle is the better player, but in the end, both guys will probably be long-time successful pros. There aren't a lot of ways to go wrong in this draft, especially early on. Tampa, like Detroit, should just be looking for talent, and McCoy has it in spades.
- The Washington Redskins select Russell Okung, offensive tackle, Oklahoma State. The more I read about Okung and the other tackles in this draft, the more I want the Redskins to find a way to reasonably trade down. None of these OTs is an elite, Jonathan Ogden/Orlando Pace caliber player, and there look to be four or five potentially very good tackles. If the Redskins hold onto the pick, Okung is the closest to a sure thing, so he's the pick.
- The Kansas City Chiefs select Eric Berry, safety, Tennessee. A lot of the talk has been that Berry would be the best player available, but that Kansas City would be concerned about giving "top 5 money" to a safety. Hogwash, I say. It would be much more costly to pass on a premier player and watch him return interceptions for touchdowns for the Browns. The first non-Big 12 player will be Berry, here at #5.
- The Seattle Seahawks select C.J. Spiller, running back, Clemson. I do think that the Seahawks will look long and hard at the various offensive linemen available, but with a new coach, especially a coach from college like Pete Carroll, I just expect him to want to go out and get a new toy for his offense. Spiller is highly rated, and I think he's their main target. With another pick later in the round, I imagine they'll be hoping that one of the top offensive tackles falls to them, which is a fair guess.
- The Cleveland Browns select Dez Bryant, wide receiver, Oklahoma State. This doesn't feel like the pick that the Browns will make, but every time I run through the logic in my head, it makes the most sense. Their offensive line is actually pretty good, so I don't see them going after one of the remaining tackles. Mike Holmgren apparently doesn't think much of Jimmy Clausen, or so people tell me. And the intriguing defensive options don't seem to have enough value to take here. Bryant could help a lethargic Browns offense to actually scare some folks, and after signing Jake Delhomme, you'd better get him a weapon.
- The Oakland Raiders select Jimmy Clausen, quarterback, Notre Dame. After last year's selection of Darrius Heyward-Bey, and the selection of Sebastian Janikowski in the first round of the 2000 draft, the Raiders have this aura of unpredictability around them. But as you look deeper, that's just not the case. While Darren McFadden, JaMarcus Russell, and Robert Gallery may not have turned out, they were all very reasonable picks, even "safe" picks. You can't blame Al Davis for trying to think outside the box. I think this year he stays reasonable, and sees Clausen as a guy who put up great numbers against top competition in college. He's a completely fair pick.
- The Buffalo Bills select Brian Bulaga, offensive tackle, Iowa. A pretty boring pick for a team that's been pretty boring the past few years. New head coach Chan Gailey has been coordinating offenses for long enough to know the value of a strong offensive line, and if Brian Bulaga falls to their pick at #9, I'd be pretty shocked if the Bills didn't snag him.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars select Jason Pierre-Paul, defensive end, South Florida. The Jags registered a measly 14 sacks in 2009, so obviously getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks is a desperate need. I've seen Pierre-Paul, Derrick Morgan, and Jerry Hughes all mentioned as the top DE in this draft, so any of them could go here. I mostly picked Pierre-Paul because he went to USF, and so he could maybe generate a little more buzz by staying in-state. Unlike some pundits, I don't see Tim Tebow as an option here.
- The Denver Broncos select Rolando McClain, linebacker, Alabama. Every "big board" I've seen has McClain lower than this, but every mock draft I've seen has the Broncos taking him here. I'm not going to pretend I know something that the experts don't. McClain was the anchor for a sensational Crimson Tide defense last year, and everything points to him being a high character guy as well. Denver recently acquitted themselves of Brandon Marshall, so you have to think character is a factor for them.
- The Miami Dolphins select Dan Williams, defensive tackle, Tennessee. The Dolphins run a 3-4 defense and don't have an elite nose tackle, so Williams is a nice fit. There was some thought that Dez Bryant was a perfect fit at this pick, but A) I've already got him well off the board, and B) the Dolphins just acquired Brandon Marshall, so wide receiver is suddenly not a need.
- The San Francisco 49ers select Trent Williams, offensive tackle, Oklahoma. Just a couple years ago, the 49ers took another workout warrior, tight end Vernon Davis. Williams was impressive at the combine, as well as already being a highly touted tackle. Honestly, after seeing Williams fall this far, I went back over my draft board to make sure I didn't miss something, but this is how I see things playing out, which would be a coup for San Francisco.
- The Seattle Seahawks select Anthony Davis, offensive tackle, Rutgers. Remember when the Seahawks reached for C.J. Spiller in the hopes that one of the top tier offensive tackles would fall to them? Well, hello Seattle, Anthony Davis just so happens to fall into that category. He's actually got the upside to be the best tackle from this class if he can overcome maturity concerns. Davis or Trent Williams would be a great result here if the Seahawks go for Spiller with the #6 pick.
- The New York Giants select Derrick Morgan, defensive end, Georgia Tech. The sports talk radio interviews I hear suggest that Osi Umenyiora may be dealt, possibly on draft day, which would create a distinct need for a defensive end. Morgan and TCU's Jerry Hughes are both on the board here, but Morgan's quality has been better publicized, so I'll go with him. Hey, the Giants are still a New York team. They still react to public opinion on some level.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Twi-Night Doubleheader - Week 2
Fantasy Players of the Week
Go Pick Up...
Lamentations From My Main Fantasy Team
- AL Hitter: Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Indians (.579, 5 R, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB) - Here's another tidbit: Choo struck out only once in 29 plate appearances last week.
- NL Hitter: Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies (.333, 8 R, 5 HR, 8 RBI) - He and Matt Kemp had almost identical lines, but Utley gets the nod for doing it while playing second base for you.
- AL Pitcher: Ricky Romero, SP, Blue Jays (1-1, 18 Ks, 1.69/0.63) - You all know about his near no-hitter, but he actually lowered his ERA in his following start, a tough loss to the Angels in which he gave up just one run.
- NL Pitcher: Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals (2-0, 16 Ks, 1.06/0/76) - Apparently Wainwright is taking out his frustration at losing last year's Cy Young race on every hitter he faces.
Go Pick Up...
- AL Hitter: Alberto Callaspo, 2B/3B, Royals (26% owned) - The concerns coming into this season were playing time and consistency. Callaspo's played in 11 of Kansas City's 12 games, and only failed to pick up a hit in two of them. Homers and steals will be limited, but he's a great filler, and his position flexibility helps even more in deeper leagues.
- NL Hitter: Ivan Rodriguez, C, Nationals (39% owned) - Pudge just isn't going away. He's now got six multi-hit games, and leads all NL starting catchers in runs (9) and batting average (.444). The job is all his until Jesus Flores recovers from his current injury, and it will be his again when Flores suffers his next injury.
- AL Pitcher: Fernando Rodney, RP, Angels (48% owned) - Inexplicably, he's available in more than half of Yahoo leagues. He hasn't given up a run since taking over the closer job for the injured Brian Fuentes. If he holds up, don't be surprised if he holds the job when Fuentes comes back.
- NL Pitcher: Matt Lindstrom, RP, Astros (37% owned???) - He's not amazing, and Houston may only win 50 games, but chances are they'll all be pretty close. He's a closer, and he's got electric stuff..sometimes.
Lamentations From My Main Fantasy Team
- Prince Fielder, Chris Davis, and Carlos Lee have zero home runs thus far. They combined for 93 HRs last year.
- In terms of runs scored last season, Jon Lester has faced the #1 (Yankees), #5 (Twins), and #7 (Rays) offenses in baseball so far this season. Starting him against two of them was my fault, not his.
- Trevor Hoffman has given up at least one run in four of his five appearances this year, yet he's 1-1 with 3 saves. Of even greater concern are the nine hits he's given up in five innings. He's been utterly hittable.
- Matt Kemp and Miguel Cabrera are awesome. Those aren't lamentations, just facts.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Is OPS a Useful Statistic?
What makes a statistic useful? I'd say two factors go into it.
Which brings us to our question. Is OPS a useful statistic? The answer, for the most part, is no.
I have no qualms with the theoretical side of OPS, and I have no problem with an attempt to generate a new statistic that helps people (both insiders and outside observers) know more about players. My problem is that adding those two statistics together is the most simple and illogical thing you can do.
I offer this illustration of my point. I have two quarters and four pennies in my pocket. How useful is it for me to say I have six "moneys" in my pocket? Or should I maybe try to think of some other way to convey what I've got in my pocket (like 54 cents)? OPS just seems like a lazy stat.
Furthermore, we all learned in elementary school that you can't add fractions that have different denominators. In order to add 1/3 to 1/4, you have to convert them. The maximum possible OBP is 1.000, if you reach base in every plate appearance. The maximum possible SLG is 4.000, if you were to hit a home run in every plate appearance. OPS basically says that .4/1 + .6/4 = 1. The math itself tells you that the statistic is flawed.
Let's go back to the two criteria I cited.
First, does OPS reflect the characteristics it's trying to portray? Well, sort of. The guys with the highest OPSs are generally the best hitters, but I have a hard time saying that the order of players' ranks in OPS is indicative of how effective they were at the plate. I can't really get behind the idea that Joey Votto had a better 2009 than Mark Teixeira. And it seems impossible that J.D. Drew was a better hitter than Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, and Victor Martinez last year.
But I think it's the second question that puts OPS completely out to pasture. What exactly does OPS mean? Ryan Howard had .931...whatevers? Units of OPS? OPS percentage? I'm willing to yield a little bit on slugging percentage (which as I mentioned is out of 4.000, rather than 1.000), because it's been around forever, and because it's got a specific formula whose result makes sense (total bases/plate appearances). It should probably be called "slugging ratio" or "slugging rate," but the name won't be changed. Regardless, the actual rates are useful; they tell us who makes the most out of their PAs. Prince Fielder slugged .602 last year, which means that over ten plate appearances, he would generate six total bases (e.g. a home run and two singles, or three doubles, or a double, two walks and two singles).
I think there is a stat out there waiting to be created that can combine this information into a useful, effective number. Heck, it probably already exists as VORP or runs created, two stats I don't really appreciate because they're not on Yahoo's player pages. I just know one thing: the stat we're looking for is not OPS.
- How well does the statistic reflect the characteristics it's trying to portray? On-base percentage is a pretty good example; it does a great job of representing how frequently a player reaches base.
- How easy is it to derive that information? Again, let's look at on-base percentage. If a player has a career OBP of exactly .400 (like Brian Giles), then you can say that, ignoring anomalies, he was able to reach first base and avoid generating an out in 40% of his plate appearances. Simple, straight to the point.
Which brings us to our question. Is OPS a useful statistic? The answer, for the most part, is no.
I have no qualms with the theoretical side of OPS, and I have no problem with an attempt to generate a new statistic that helps people (both insiders and outside observers) know more about players. My problem is that adding those two statistics together is the most simple and illogical thing you can do.
I offer this illustration of my point. I have two quarters and four pennies in my pocket. How useful is it for me to say I have six "moneys" in my pocket? Or should I maybe try to think of some other way to convey what I've got in my pocket (like 54 cents)? OPS just seems like a lazy stat.
Furthermore, we all learned in elementary school that you can't add fractions that have different denominators. In order to add 1/3 to 1/4, you have to convert them. The maximum possible OBP is 1.000, if you reach base in every plate appearance. The maximum possible SLG is 4.000, if you were to hit a home run in every plate appearance. OPS basically says that .4/1 + .6/4 = 1. The math itself tells you that the statistic is flawed.
Let's go back to the two criteria I cited.
First, does OPS reflect the characteristics it's trying to portray? Well, sort of. The guys with the highest OPSs are generally the best hitters, but I have a hard time saying that the order of players' ranks in OPS is indicative of how effective they were at the plate. I can't really get behind the idea that Joey Votto had a better 2009 than Mark Teixeira. And it seems impossible that J.D. Drew was a better hitter than Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, and Victor Martinez last year.
But I think it's the second question that puts OPS completely out to pasture. What exactly does OPS mean? Ryan Howard had .931...whatevers? Units of OPS? OPS percentage? I'm willing to yield a little bit on slugging percentage (which as I mentioned is out of 4.000, rather than 1.000), because it's been around forever, and because it's got a specific formula whose result makes sense (total bases/plate appearances). It should probably be called "slugging ratio" or "slugging rate," but the name won't be changed. Regardless, the actual rates are useful; they tell us who makes the most out of their PAs. Prince Fielder slugged .602 last year, which means that over ten plate appearances, he would generate six total bases (e.g. a home run and two singles, or three doubles, or a double, two walks and two singles).
I think there is a stat out there waiting to be created that can combine this information into a useful, effective number. Heck, it probably already exists as VORP or runs created, two stats I don't really appreciate because they're not on Yahoo's player pages. I just know one thing: the stat we're looking for is not OPS.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Should Ben Stay or Should He Go?
First, let's dispense with one thing. I don't like the Pittsburgh Steelers. Some might say that I hate the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they wouldn't be completely wrong. There's certainly something that feels like hate brewing inside of me when I talk about them.
That being said, I've generally been able to be pretty objective when it comes to talking about them in Joe and Joe context, or in any analytical context, so I'm going to take a crack at the current situation with Ben Roethlisberger.
Let's start with the facts. Roethlisberger faced criminal charges on sexual assault in two different circumstances. In both instances, the charges were eventually dropped, though there's still a civil suit outstanding in one case. Additionally, the Steelers have had a well-publicized and long-cultivated reputation for being intolerant of people with poor characters, parting ways with Bam Morris (marijuana), Plaxico Burress (attitude), and Cedrick Wilson (hit his girlfriend) for character issues. Additionally, just this week the Steelers traded Santonio Holmes to the New York Jets after finding out he'd be suspended the first four games of the 2010 season, for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy.
But hang on. Right around the time Cedrick Wilson was cut for hitting his girlfriend, James Harrison broke down his girlfriend's door, snapped her cell phone in half, and slapped her across the face. Harrison faced no punishment from the Steelers' front office. Why? The company line was that each instance was viewed independently, and the two situations were not the same. To Pittsburgh apologists, the difference was a closed fist versus an open hand. To everyone else, the difference was that Wilson was a fourth string wide receiver, and Harrison was arguably their best linebacker. To fans in the rest of the league, it was a message saying that the Steelers are no different than any other team; on-field performance outweighs off-field transgressions.
It should then come as no surprise that Santonio Holmes was only traded once it was determined that he would miss four games in 2010 due to suspension. Pittsburgh likely felt they could make a statement and cut someone who was going to play at most 12 games anyways, so the decision was easier.
But now, with a large public outcry, specifically from the African-American community, the Steelers are faced with the decision on what to do with Ben Roethlisberger. The commissioner's office is expected to make a ruling soon on whether or not Roethlisberger will be punished through the NFL's personal conduct policy, and a 4+ game suspension by Roger Goodell could take the Rooneys off the hook. They'd be able to say, "We agree with the commissioner's decision, and consider the matter closed." Most teams have abided this general train of thought, and suspended players' teams have not been held accountable for discipline as a result (I cite Michael Vick on the Eagles, Adam Jones on the Titans/Cowboys, and Tank Johnson on the Bears/Cowboys). The commissioner has basically agreed to play bad cop for the whole league, allowing the teams to be the good cops.
And so now we come to the real question, and the title of this post. Should the Pittsburgh Steelers actively attempt to trade Ben Roethlisberger? I've heard and read that the rumors floating around about a trade to the Rams are untrue, and generally I believe that, since franchise quarterbacks rarely get traded. But we're not here to talk about "will it happen" or "won't it happen"; that's for the experts and the insiders. I'm an opinion-speaker, and so I will state my opinion.
If there were an offer from the Rams of this year's #1 overall pick and a first round pick next year, I think that the Steelers should think long and hard before turning it down. The reasons:
See, I fall into the "anything to win" camp much more distinctly than most. I think it's silly that no team has signed Barry Bonds. I thought it was ridiculous that Terrell Owens got deactivated for the second half of the season for saying he'd rather have Brett Favre as his quarterback than Donovan McNabb. Does that mean that I buy into guys like Albert Haynesworth, who seem to care very little about their team and winning? Sometimes, yes. But it's not like Roethlisberger hasn't shown that he wants to win. He leaves it all out on the field, and his track record is impressive, even if you're accounting for him being backed up by one of the best defenses in the world.
Of course, I also say you pay Troy Polamalu whatever he asks for.
That being said, I've generally been able to be pretty objective when it comes to talking about them in Joe and Joe context, or in any analytical context, so I'm going to take a crack at the current situation with Ben Roethlisberger.
Let's start with the facts. Roethlisberger faced criminal charges on sexual assault in two different circumstances. In both instances, the charges were eventually dropped, though there's still a civil suit outstanding in one case. Additionally, the Steelers have had a well-publicized and long-cultivated reputation for being intolerant of people with poor characters, parting ways with Bam Morris (marijuana), Plaxico Burress (attitude), and Cedrick Wilson (hit his girlfriend) for character issues. Additionally, just this week the Steelers traded Santonio Holmes to the New York Jets after finding out he'd be suspended the first four games of the 2010 season, for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy.
But hang on. Right around the time Cedrick Wilson was cut for hitting his girlfriend, James Harrison broke down his girlfriend's door, snapped her cell phone in half, and slapped her across the face. Harrison faced no punishment from the Steelers' front office. Why? The company line was that each instance was viewed independently, and the two situations were not the same. To Pittsburgh apologists, the difference was a closed fist versus an open hand. To everyone else, the difference was that Wilson was a fourth string wide receiver, and Harrison was arguably their best linebacker. To fans in the rest of the league, it was a message saying that the Steelers are no different than any other team; on-field performance outweighs off-field transgressions.
It should then come as no surprise that Santonio Holmes was only traded once it was determined that he would miss four games in 2010 due to suspension. Pittsburgh likely felt they could make a statement and cut someone who was going to play at most 12 games anyways, so the decision was easier.
But now, with a large public outcry, specifically from the African-American community, the Steelers are faced with the decision on what to do with Ben Roethlisberger. The commissioner's office is expected to make a ruling soon on whether or not Roethlisberger will be punished through the NFL's personal conduct policy, and a 4+ game suspension by Roger Goodell could take the Rooneys off the hook. They'd be able to say, "We agree with the commissioner's decision, and consider the matter closed." Most teams have abided this general train of thought, and suspended players' teams have not been held accountable for discipline as a result (I cite Michael Vick on the Eagles, Adam Jones on the Titans/Cowboys, and Tank Johnson on the Bears/Cowboys). The commissioner has basically agreed to play bad cop for the whole league, allowing the teams to be the good cops.
And so now we come to the real question, and the title of this post. Should the Pittsburgh Steelers actively attempt to trade Ben Roethlisberger? I've heard and read that the rumors floating around about a trade to the Rams are untrue, and generally I believe that, since franchise quarterbacks rarely get traded. But we're not here to talk about "will it happen" or "won't it happen"; that's for the experts and the insiders. I'm an opinion-speaker, and so I will state my opinion.
If there were an offer from the Rams of this year's #1 overall pick and a first round pick next year, I think that the Steelers should think long and hard before turning it down. The reasons:
- The window on this team's potential short-term success may already be closed. The defense is getting older, Hines Ward probably will be gone in two to three years, you just traded Santonio Holmes, and Troy Polamalu, the team's most popular and most important player, has two years left on his deal, and will almost certainly command a $10 million/year contract. That means he'll likely be gone as well.
- The #1 overall pick is a great pick to have. If the team and Mike Tomlin both like Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen, you have the chance to draft a guy you believe will be your next franchise quarterback. If you're not wild about either of them, you can take Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy and have an elite defensive tackle for the next ten years. Furthermore, the opportunity to trade down always exists, and the Steelers have been fantastic at finding good talent between picks 10 and 75.
- The resulting PR would be a boon. Right now, the Steelers are in a no-man's land between "character counts" and "anything to win." Among sports analysts or more passive sports fans, these minor hypocrisies are irrelevant. To the average sports fan, though, they're unacceptable. Most Steelers fans I've met take pride in their team's "no nonsense" stance when it comes to character issues, and are either emotionally torn or uninformed regarding James Harrison's infractions. Not that Pittsburgh needs much of a boost when it comes to fanship, but you can never have too many fans.
See, I fall into the "anything to win" camp much more distinctly than most. I think it's silly that no team has signed Barry Bonds. I thought it was ridiculous that Terrell Owens got deactivated for the second half of the season for saying he'd rather have Brett Favre as his quarterback than Donovan McNabb. Does that mean that I buy into guys like Albert Haynesworth, who seem to care very little about their team and winning? Sometimes, yes. But it's not like Roethlisberger hasn't shown that he wants to win. He leaves it all out on the field, and his track record is impressive, even if you're accounting for him being backed up by one of the best defenses in the world.
Of course, I also say you pay Troy Polamalu whatever he asks for.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
NHL 2010 Playoff Picks - First Round
I don't claim to be a hockey expert, but I am enjoying hockey more and more these days, and I'm paying more and more attention to it. Also, this is a sports blog, so it's my responsibility to talk about most sports. Not golf, of course, because golf is absurd and pointless. But most other sports.
Eastern Conference
#1 Washington Capitals vs. #8 Montreal Canadiens
I'm hearing all over town that Montreal was the one matchup we didn't want to see in the first round. I still feel fine about the Caps' ability to overwhelm opponents, even Canadian opponents.
Washington in 5
#2 New Jersey Devils vs. #7 Philadelphia Flyers
All I know for sure is that the Devils are really damn good. Martin Brodeur is still elite, and I don't care how physical the Flyers play, Zach Parise is going to find a way to put goals in nets.
New Jersey in 5
#3 Buffalo Sabres vs. #6 Boston Bruins
This seems to be one of the sexier picks for an upset, and I do think the Bruins have got a good squad, but I just can't see Ryan Miller letting the Sabres come up short in the first round.
Buffalo in 6
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Ottawa Senators
Neither team is particularly good defensively, but the Penguins have the offensive firepower and a potentially dominant goaltender. It could be explosive, but it could also just not be close.
Pittsburgh in 5
Western Conference
#1 San Jose Sharks vs. #8 Colorado Avalanche
I wish I could predict good things for Colorado, but there's really no chance they come out of this series with a win. I mean, like a win in any game. San Jose is stacked.
San Jose in 4
#2 Chicago Blackhawks vs. #7 Nashville Predators
The Blackhawks are basically Capitals West: they've got a ton of firepower, but their defense can be problematic. Nashville is the opposite, which could make the series interesting, but I wouldn't bank on it.
Chicago in 5
#3 Vancouver Canucks vs. #6 Los Angeles Kings
The Kings? The Kings are in the playoffs? Is nothing sacred? Seriously, though, they're actually pretty decent, and the Canucks aren't unstoppable. In the end, though, I'll take the veterans.
Vancouver in 6
#4 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings
Unstoppable force (Red Wings' puck movement) vs. immovable object (Phoenix's Ilya Bryzgalov). Today, I'll take Detroit, but if Bryzgalov gets hot, forget about it.
Detroit in 7
Eastern Conference
#1 Washington Capitals vs. #8 Montreal Canadiens
I'm hearing all over town that Montreal was the one matchup we didn't want to see in the first round. I still feel fine about the Caps' ability to overwhelm opponents, even Canadian opponents.
Washington in 5
#2 New Jersey Devils vs. #7 Philadelphia Flyers
All I know for sure is that the Devils are really damn good. Martin Brodeur is still elite, and I don't care how physical the Flyers play, Zach Parise is going to find a way to put goals in nets.
New Jersey in 5
#3 Buffalo Sabres vs. #6 Boston Bruins
This seems to be one of the sexier picks for an upset, and I do think the Bruins have got a good squad, but I just can't see Ryan Miller letting the Sabres come up short in the first round.
Buffalo in 6
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Ottawa Senators
Neither team is particularly good defensively, but the Penguins have the offensive firepower and a potentially dominant goaltender. It could be explosive, but it could also just not be close.
Pittsburgh in 5
Western Conference
#1 San Jose Sharks vs. #8 Colorado Avalanche
I wish I could predict good things for Colorado, but there's really no chance they come out of this series with a win. I mean, like a win in any game. San Jose is stacked.
San Jose in 4
#2 Chicago Blackhawks vs. #7 Nashville Predators
The Blackhawks are basically Capitals West: they've got a ton of firepower, but their defense can be problematic. Nashville is the opposite, which could make the series interesting, but I wouldn't bank on it.
Chicago in 5
#3 Vancouver Canucks vs. #6 Los Angeles Kings
The Kings? The Kings are in the playoffs? Is nothing sacred? Seriously, though, they're actually pretty decent, and the Canucks aren't unstoppable. In the end, though, I'll take the veterans.
Vancouver in 6
#4 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings
Unstoppable force (Red Wings' puck movement) vs. immovable object (Phoenix's Ilya Bryzgalov). Today, I'll take Detroit, but if Bryzgalov gets hot, forget about it.
Detroit in 7
Monday, April 12, 2010
Twi-Night Doubleheader - Week 1
We're going to try something new this year. I'm going to give you a fantasy baseball update on a weekly basis, with various tidbits of information. And I'm naming it "Twi-Night Doubleheader" because it's a sweet baseball term. Here goes.
(Ownage numbers retrieved from Yahoo)
Fantasy Players of the Week
AL Hitter: Curtis Granderson (.348, 4 runs, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB) - A couple other guys had better run production, but getting two homers and three steals in one week is truly a fantasy.
NL Hitter: Albert Pujols (.375, 7 runs, 4 HR, 10 RBI) - You have to think Pujols will find his way onto this list more often than anyone else. Pujols 1, Rest of NL 0.
AL Pitcher: Dallas Braden (1-0, 12 Ks, 2.77/0.85) - The AL didn't have the elite performances that the NL did, but Braden had one great start with a no-decision, and a good start with a win. Honorable mention goes to Jon Rauch, who picked up 4 saves in his first week as the Twins' closer.
NL Pitcher: Roy Halladay (2-0, 17 Ks, 0.56/0.94) - It was neck and neck between Halladay and Tim Lincecum, but I'll give the nod to Halladay for having a better ERA over more innings. You have to think that any week either of these guys pitches twice, though, they'll be the favorites.
Go Pick Up...
AL Hitter: J.J. Hardy, SS, Twins (.286, 3 runs, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 37% owned) - My guess is that 2009 was the anomaly. A .280 batting average with around 25 home runs seems pretty reasonable.
NL Hitter: Kelly Johnson, 2B, Diamondbacks (.368, 6 runs, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 25% owned) - It was just last year that pundits projected a 15-15 or better season for Johnson. And Arizona is a fine place to hit, even if you're batting eighth.
AL Pitcher: Kevin Gregg, RP, Blue Jays (2 saves, 4 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 22% owned) - It's obvious that the Jays' pen is still open to interpretation, but Gregg has been their best reliever so far. If that endures more than another week or two, I can't see him not being handed the closer job for good.
NL Pitcher: Franklin Morales, RP, Rockies (2 saves, 3.00 ERA, 38% owned) - He may not be completely lights out, but Morales has elite stuff, and with Huston Street's injury history, he could be good for 15-20 saves when all is said and done.
Thought You Ought To Know...
(Ownage numbers retrieved from Yahoo)
Fantasy Players of the Week
AL Hitter: Curtis Granderson (.348, 4 runs, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB) - A couple other guys had better run production, but getting two homers and three steals in one week is truly a fantasy.
NL Hitter: Albert Pujols (.375, 7 runs, 4 HR, 10 RBI) - You have to think Pujols will find his way onto this list more often than anyone else. Pujols 1, Rest of NL 0.
AL Pitcher: Dallas Braden (1-0, 12 Ks, 2.77/0.85) - The AL didn't have the elite performances that the NL did, but Braden had one great start with a no-decision, and a good start with a win. Honorable mention goes to Jon Rauch, who picked up 4 saves in his first week as the Twins' closer.
NL Pitcher: Roy Halladay (2-0, 17 Ks, 0.56/0.94) - It was neck and neck between Halladay and Tim Lincecum, but I'll give the nod to Halladay for having a better ERA over more innings. You have to think that any week either of these guys pitches twice, though, they'll be the favorites.
Go Pick Up...
AL Hitter: J.J. Hardy, SS, Twins (.286, 3 runs, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 37% owned) - My guess is that 2009 was the anomaly. A .280 batting average with around 25 home runs seems pretty reasonable.
NL Hitter: Kelly Johnson, 2B, Diamondbacks (.368, 6 runs, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 25% owned) - It was just last year that pundits projected a 15-15 or better season for Johnson. And Arizona is a fine place to hit, even if you're batting eighth.
AL Pitcher: Kevin Gregg, RP, Blue Jays (2 saves, 4 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 22% owned) - It's obvious that the Jays' pen is still open to interpretation, but Gregg has been their best reliever so far. If that endures more than another week or two, I can't see him not being handed the closer job for good.
NL Pitcher: Franklin Morales, RP, Rockies (2 saves, 3.00 ERA, 38% owned) - He may not be completely lights out, but Morales has elite stuff, and with Huston Street's injury history, he could be good for 15-20 saves when all is said and done.
Thought You Ought To Know...
- ...Brad Lidge still can't get anyone out, but now it's A ball hitters who are knocking him around. If you've got Ryan Madson, keep him.
- ...Barry Bonds hasn't retired...yet.
- ...Brian Roberts just got sent to the DL; fantasy owners who have been starting him through this .143 early period are not unhappy.
- ...Mike Gonzalez is in trouble.
Friday, April 9, 2010
An Admission
I think I'm probably in the minority among Capitals fans when I say this, but I can't help it. My fanship of any team has always been deeply rooted in terror, so here goes:
I hope Washington doesn't have to play the Pittsburgh Penguins in the playoffs.
Despite sweeping the Penguins in the regular season, I still feel like the Capitals would face an unfavorable matchup if pitted against the Penguins. Sidney Crosby is obviously an elite talent, and he seems to play big in big games. Additionally, while Pittsburgh was hotter going into the playoffs in 2009 than they are this year, they've got much of the same personnel, including, most importantly, Marc-Andre Fleury, who was absolutely fantastic in the playoffs last season.
Do I think the Caps can beat the Penguins? Of course I do. They've already taken four out of four games thus far this season. And I know that the Caps will have to face off against at least one other opponent before a possible matchup against Pittsburgh. And, while I'm no hockey expert, I know the Capitals this year are arguably the best team in hockey. I'm just saying that, as a fan, I'm generally panicked about my favorite team's ability to succeed. And with Pittsburgh being last year's villain, I'm going to be worried about them until they're gone.
I'm looking at you, Ottawa.
I hope Washington doesn't have to play the Pittsburgh Penguins in the playoffs.
Despite sweeping the Penguins in the regular season, I still feel like the Capitals would face an unfavorable matchup if pitted against the Penguins. Sidney Crosby is obviously an elite talent, and he seems to play big in big games. Additionally, while Pittsburgh was hotter going into the playoffs in 2009 than they are this year, they've got much of the same personnel, including, most importantly, Marc-Andre Fleury, who was absolutely fantastic in the playoffs last season.
Do I think the Caps can beat the Penguins? Of course I do. They've already taken four out of four games thus far this season. And I know that the Caps will have to face off against at least one other opponent before a possible matchup against Pittsburgh. And, while I'm no hockey expert, I know the Capitals this year are arguably the best team in hockey. I'm just saying that, as a fan, I'm generally panicked about my favorite team's ability to succeed. And with Pittsburgh being last year's villain, I'm going to be worried about them until they're gone.
I'm looking at you, Ottawa.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Declawed
Who is this person people are calling Tiger Woods? This is not the Tiger I enjoyed watching strike fear into the hearts of every golfer with the misfortune of being paired with him. I understand this is a different time in Tiger's life. He is trying to rebuild his image, if only for the sponsors.
But I find myself growing tiresome of his, "I didn't like the person I had become" attitude. Grow some balls. Learn from Sir Charles Barkley. He doesn't apologize for his compulsive gambling habit, his multiple DUIs, or his outspoken nature. This is who he is. He came out and said, "I don't believe professional athletes should be role models, parents should be." So why such an outcry for an apology from Tiger Woods? He hasn't broken any laws; in fact, you might argue he was a victim of domestic violence.
With each public apology, my opinion of him erodes. I understand the need for the first public explanation of the events. I can even understand the interviews he had with selected members of the media, but was his press conference at the Masters this past Monday really necessary? If this were the old Tiger he would have answered every question about his personal life with "I have already addressed that" and would have moved on. But this "new and improved," in-treatment Tiger still feels the need to ingratiate himself with the public. He reeks of weakness. It makes me have less respect for him as a golfer.
I'm not a Tiger fan because of what he does with his private life. I am a fan because he is a magician on the golf course. I find that magic fading with every sad, pathetic look he gives to the camera. I can only hope this is temporary, and he'll soon get back to making his opponents shake like a junkie needing a fix.
But I find myself growing tiresome of his, "I didn't like the person I had become" attitude. Grow some balls. Learn from Sir Charles Barkley. He doesn't apologize for his compulsive gambling habit, his multiple DUIs, or his outspoken nature. This is who he is. He came out and said, "I don't believe professional athletes should be role models, parents should be." So why such an outcry for an apology from Tiger Woods? He hasn't broken any laws; in fact, you might argue he was a victim of domestic violence.
With each public apology, my opinion of him erodes. I understand the need for the first public explanation of the events. I can even understand the interviews he had with selected members of the media, but was his press conference at the Masters this past Monday really necessary? If this were the old Tiger he would have answered every question about his personal life with "I have already addressed that" and would have moved on. But this "new and improved," in-treatment Tiger still feels the need to ingratiate himself with the public. He reeks of weakness. It makes me have less respect for him as a golfer.
I'm not a Tiger fan because of what he does with his private life. I am a fan because he is a magician on the golf course. I find that magic fading with every sad, pathetic look he gives to the camera. I can only hope this is temporary, and he'll soon get back to making his opponents shake like a junkie needing a fix.
Lords of the Realm 2 / Summer Reading
First and foremost, any of you who played Lords of the Realm 2 need to listen to this song:
(You can download the track for yourself here)
Now that that's out of the way, let's talk about the other topic: summer reading. Remember when we were in school and we were expected to read on our own over the summer? I say "supposed to" because I know I never actually did, unless I could get away with something I was going to read anyways (Michael Crichton's Sphere comes to mind). But now, as an adult, I've come to appreciate the occasional foray into literature. I've even purchased more than one book in the past twelve months. I've got at least one extremely long road trip, and I'll likely have many other opportunities to get some serious reading done.
So I turn to you, my loyal readers...or reader. Offer me suggestions of books I should perhaps attempt to read this summer. Particular attention should be paid to books in two categories:
(You can download the track for yourself here)
Now that that's out of the way, let's talk about the other topic: summer reading. Remember when we were in school and we were expected to read on our own over the summer? I say "supposed to" because I know I never actually did, unless I could get away with something I was going to read anyways (Michael Crichton's Sphere comes to mind). But now, as an adult, I've come to appreciate the occasional foray into literature. I've even purchased more than one book in the past twelve months. I've got at least one extremely long road trip, and I'll likely have many other opportunities to get some serious reading done.
So I turn to you, my loyal readers...or reader. Offer me suggestions of books I should perhaps attempt to read this summer. Particular attention should be paid to books in two categories:
- Books that you yourself own and could let me borrow.
- Books by Nick Hornby.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
The #4 Pick
The Redskins have the #4 pick in this year's draft. Because of that, they only really need to determine a "Top 4" prospects for that pick. And after having traded their second round pick to acquire Donovan McNabb, the #4 guy is probably the last guy they'll draft for a while. Obviously, they'll develop an entire draft board, but with regards to that first pick, barring a trade, they need four guys on their big board.
And so, I will now tell them who they should take, in order, at that #4 pick. Right now, it seems like any of three players could go first, and any of six or seven players could be a reasonable selection at #4. A lot of it depends on how things go in those first three picks, and from what I hear, those picks are a little bit wide open.
Initially, it seemed like the Rams would take Ndamukong Suh as a no-brainer first pick, but after Sam Bradford had a productive workout and proved his health, he's gotten himself back into the top pick discussion, and it's thrown the whole top ten of the draft into question. So, for the Redskins' benefit, I will come up with a top 4 list, a list of the only four guys that Washington should consider with their #1 pick. And here it is.
The Washington Redskins Top Four
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
I've always liked Bradford. As you might remember, he was looked at as a potential #1 overall pick last year, before he decided that he was coming back for another year of college ball. The talent seems there, but perhaps more importantly, every interview I've heard and every report on him has given him really exceptional marks on character and leadership. As we've learned from guys like Jeff George and Ryan Leaf, a big arm isn't all you need to succeed in the NFL. All indications are that Bradford has the head for the job.
Perhaps the most important piece of this sequence is that the acquisition of McNabb should completely remove Jimmy Clausen from consideration for the #4 pick. He's not the best quarterback prospect in the draft, and something about him just doesn't strike me as a potential franchise quarterback. I'm hoping the Redskins were unsatisfied with him as well, and that's why they made this trade.
I still do like Bradford, and if Shanahan likes Bradford too, and he's available at the #4 pick, I won't be mad at the Skins for taking him. But I would wonder where exactly they'd expect to get the kind of players you need to fill out a professional offensive line that won't leave McNabb running for the hills.
And so, I will now tell them who they should take, in order, at that #4 pick. Right now, it seems like any of three players could go first, and any of six or seven players could be a reasonable selection at #4. A lot of it depends on how things go in those first three picks, and from what I hear, those picks are a little bit wide open.
Initially, it seemed like the Rams would take Ndamukong Suh as a no-brainer first pick, but after Sam Bradford had a productive workout and proved his health, he's gotten himself back into the top pick discussion, and it's thrown the whole top ten of the draft into question. So, for the Redskins' benefit, I will come up with a top 4 list, a list of the only four guys that Washington should consider with their #1 pick. And here it is.
The Washington Redskins Top Four
- Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
The reality, I believe, is that Suh is the one surefire transcendent talent in this year's draft. While defensive tackle might not be a glaring need for the Redskins, they did part ways with Cornelius Griffin, creating a potential opening. I know that the defense is expected to run as a 3-4, but I feel like you work with elite talent if you can get it, and Suh would be elite talent. He's also the one guy that you know, without a doubt, will not be available at the fourth pick. - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
I truly believe that Suh and McCoy are the kind of players who trump the Redskins' potential needs and demand being taken if at all available. I don't expect either to be on the board when Washington picks at #4, so it's probably not worth arguing about, but you've got to come up with a top four going into this draft day. Suh and McCoy belong at the top. - Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
I had Sam Bradford at #3, but when Washington went and traded for Donovan McNabb, everything changed. Suddenly, the 'Skins needed to fill holes, because they've got a veteran QB and an opportunity to be successful in the short term. "Best available" became less reasonable, and "best fit" replaced it. Okung is the consensus best offensive lineman in the draft, and seems to also be the closest to a sure thing as a plug-and-play left tackle. With limited draft picks and a dearth of options in free agency, you almost have to take a tackle here. - Anthony Davis, Rutgers
I would have liked to have found a way to recommend Eric Berry, who I think will be a superstar, but after the McNabb trade, this first round pick became a pick that you absolutely have to use to make your team better right now. Berry will be great, but a game-changer he may not be. Davis could be the most talented offensive lineman in the draft, though he's got some character questions. Still, with him, the risk/reward is star OL versus problem child OL, where taking Berry will leave offensive line as a glaringly empty position. If Okung and the two elite DTs are off the board, you might as well take a potential big time player.
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
I've always liked Bradford. As you might remember, he was looked at as a potential #1 overall pick last year, before he decided that he was coming back for another year of college ball. The talent seems there, but perhaps more importantly, every interview I've heard and every report on him has given him really exceptional marks on character and leadership. As we've learned from guys like Jeff George and Ryan Leaf, a big arm isn't all you need to succeed in the NFL. All indications are that Bradford has the head for the job.
Perhaps the most important piece of this sequence is that the acquisition of McNabb should completely remove Jimmy Clausen from consideration for the #4 pick. He's not the best quarterback prospect in the draft, and something about him just doesn't strike me as a potential franchise quarterback. I'm hoping the Redskins were unsatisfied with him as well, and that's why they made this trade.
I still do like Bradford, and if Shanahan likes Bradford too, and he's available at the #4 pick, I won't be mad at the Skins for taking him. But I would wonder where exactly they'd expect to get the kind of players you need to fill out a professional offensive line that won't leave McNabb running for the hills.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Donovan Comes To Town
He's not exactly Santa Claus, but the addition of Donovan McNabb to the Redskins could be a nice gift for the people of Washington.
I'll state first, for the record, that I have always hated McNabb. I know some of it is due to a divisional bias I have against all other NFC East teams and players, but I've come around to Tony Romo a little bit, so it can't all be attributed to his team affiliation.
I don't know, between Rush Limbaugh and Terrell Owens, McNabb always seemed to be on the whiny, pitied side of things. Your wide receiver said he'd rather have another quarterback? Boo hoo. An historically racist political pundit talked about how the media had made you into a better quarterback than you actually are because you're black? I'm unsympathetic. Winning a Super Bowl, or at least treating the last two minutes of the Super Bowl like you want to win, cures all these issues.
Moreover, I've generally been unimpressed by his passing ability. As my Eagle fan colleagues will attest to, McNabb seems to short-arm or underthrow more passes than anyone in football. He's able to avoid interceptions this way, but it's frustrating to watch drives stall because your quarterback threw the ball into the ground. I do think he's one of the best quarterback runners I've ever seen, though; he's quick, he's elusive, and has great vision. If the Redskins' offensive line doesn't improve, that skill set will be uniquely useful.
Overall, though, McNabb has a far better track record of success than Jason Campbell or Rex Grossman, both individually and as a team leader. And with the salary cap being a non-factor, I have no problem with Washington taking on McNabb's salary, especially when Bruce Allen indicated that he had the authority to spend as much money as he saw fit this offseason. So I like the move. I think it makes the Redskins much better in 2010.
I do think it (rightly) changes how they will approach the NFL draft this April, and it's in that regard that I think this move might be the most valuable. I'll explain that in tomorrow's post, where I discuss the Redskins' first round pick in depth. Stay tuned.
I'll state first, for the record, that I have always hated McNabb. I know some of it is due to a divisional bias I have against all other NFC East teams and players, but I've come around to Tony Romo a little bit, so it can't all be attributed to his team affiliation.
I don't know, between Rush Limbaugh and Terrell Owens, McNabb always seemed to be on the whiny, pitied side of things. Your wide receiver said he'd rather have another quarterback? Boo hoo. An historically racist political pundit talked about how the media had made you into a better quarterback than you actually are because you're black? I'm unsympathetic. Winning a Super Bowl, or at least treating the last two minutes of the Super Bowl like you want to win, cures all these issues.
Moreover, I've generally been unimpressed by his passing ability. As my Eagle fan colleagues will attest to, McNabb seems to short-arm or underthrow more passes than anyone in football. He's able to avoid interceptions this way, but it's frustrating to watch drives stall because your quarterback threw the ball into the ground. I do think he's one of the best quarterback runners I've ever seen, though; he's quick, he's elusive, and has great vision. If the Redskins' offensive line doesn't improve, that skill set will be uniquely useful.
Overall, though, McNabb has a far better track record of success than Jason Campbell or Rex Grossman, both individually and as a team leader. And with the salary cap being a non-factor, I have no problem with Washington taking on McNabb's salary, especially when Bruce Allen indicated that he had the authority to spend as much money as he saw fit this offseason. So I like the move. I think it makes the Redskins much better in 2010.
I do think it (rightly) changes how they will approach the NFL draft this April, and it's in that regard that I think this move might be the most valuable. I'll explain that in tomorrow's post, where I discuss the Redskins' first round pick in depth. Stay tuned.
The McNabb Trade
Over the weekend, I had crafted what I thought was a pretty interesting blog post regarding the Redskins' decision with the #4 overall pick in this April's NFL draft. I had marked Sam Bradford, Gerald McCoy, and Ndamukong Suh as the likely top three players selected, leaving Washington with a whole slew of comparably valued players to choose from.
And then, of course, the Redskins went out and traded for Donovan McNabb, and their whole team identity and potential draft strategy went out the window. So now I've got to craft a different blog post, and I'll do it, but you're not going to get it today. Today, you get my blog post telling you about the next blog post. Eat it.
And then, of course, the Redskins went out and traded for Donovan McNabb, and their whole team identity and potential draft strategy went out the window. So now I've got to craft a different blog post, and I'll do it, but you're not going to get it today. Today, you get my blog post telling you about the next blog post. Eat it.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Music Visualizations
So I was listening to some music today at the office (OC Remixes, of course), and I use Windows Media Player at work. I watched the visualization briefly, but it didn't seem to offer much of a matchup to the music. So my question to all of you is, do you guys know of any good visualizations out there? Obviously I'll put Google to work and see if I can't come up with something worthwhile, but I'd be appreciative if anyone has got a visualization they can recommend that really shines. Mostly, I'm just looking for something that does a good job of matching up with the music.
Anybody?
Anybody?
The Friday Before
First and foremost, yes, my colleague was correct when he called me out. Joe and Joe Sports isn't going anywhere; I will not be joining Yahoo's crack team of fantasy analysts...and Funston and Buser. I do have the utmost respect for Andy Behrens and his work, though, and I stand by my recommendation that you check out his stuff.
But today is more important than just the day after April Fool's day. It's the Friday before the beginning of the baseball (and fantasy baseball) season. I'm in three leagues this year (so far), one of which drafts on Saturday night (and I'm pushing for it to get changed to an auction draft; come on, Tony!).
The weekend before Opening Day is a great time. Every team has the ability to compete for a title, every team has the potential to win big or lose huge. All of your draft strategies and shrewd moves are still alive, could still pan out. In fact, April might be the most disappointing month of the fantasy baseball season, because that's when you start to realize that you overestimated this guy, or you were foolish to doubt that guy. Owners often over-emphasize happenings in April because that's when everyone is paying attention.
Is this where I tell you to stay the course? Have faith in your draft? Trust your instincts? No. Those instincts led me to ignore guys like Cliff Lee and Carlos Quentin. Make sure you're willing to adjust on the fly. Granted, you don't want to abandon all of your pre-season thought processes, but make sure that you don't allow yourself to be blinded by predisposition.
If you do, all those exciting "could be's" will turn into "might've been's."
But today is more important than just the day after April Fool's day. It's the Friday before the beginning of the baseball (and fantasy baseball) season. I'm in three leagues this year (so far), one of which drafts on Saturday night (and I'm pushing for it to get changed to an auction draft; come on, Tony!).
The weekend before Opening Day is a great time. Every team has the ability to compete for a title, every team has the potential to win big or lose huge. All of your draft strategies and shrewd moves are still alive, could still pan out. In fact, April might be the most disappointing month of the fantasy baseball season, because that's when you start to realize that you overestimated this guy, or you were foolish to doubt that guy. Owners often over-emphasize happenings in April because that's when everyone is paying attention.
Is this where I tell you to stay the course? Have faith in your draft? Trust your instincts? No. Those instincts led me to ignore guys like Cliff Lee and Carlos Quentin. Make sure you're willing to adjust on the fly. Granted, you don't want to abandon all of your pre-season thought processes, but make sure that you don't allow yourself to be blinded by predisposition.
If you do, all those exciting "could be's" will turn into "might've been's."
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Joe and Joe Sports Farewell
After an exciting last two years (and a fairly unexciting first two years), it is with a heavy heart that I report that Joe and Joe Sports will be closing down. I have a great opportunity to join Yahoo's fantasy sports team as a part-time assistant for Andy Behrens (yes, the Andy Behrens) on his Roto Arcade feature. Unfortunately, in order to join the Yahoo team, I have to sign a contract that stipulates that I won't compete for customers (web traffic in this instance), so I can no longer be a part of Joe and Joe Sports.
The agreement allows previously published content to remain published, so I will keep the site up for at least the duration of my contract with Google's web-hosting. I'm sure you'd all be heartbroken if you couldn't go back and see that I was dead-on about Matt Ryan being the right guy, right away for the Falcons in 2008. Heartbroken.
It's been a great run, everyone, and my work for Yahoo doesn't start until May 1st, so stick around while we clean up shop. Maybe you can take home a seat cover!
The agreement allows previously published content to remain published, so I will keep the site up for at least the duration of my contract with Google's web-hosting. I'm sure you'd all be heartbroken if you couldn't go back and see that I was dead-on about Matt Ryan being the right guy, right away for the Falcons in 2008. Heartbroken.
It's been a great run, everyone, and my work for Yahoo doesn't start until May 1st, so stick around while we clean up shop. Maybe you can take home a seat cover!
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