2010 NFL Draft Preview

This year's NFL Draft will start on Thursday night. I'm not sure what I think of that, and probably won't be sure until it actually happens. I know that the Washington Capitals are scheduled to play Wednesday and Friday, so we'll see if I'm up for spending three straight nights on my couch watching sports.

I do know that I'll at least watch through pick #4, as I'm very interested to see what the Redskins do with their first round pick. I'd be pretty surprised if they did anything other than draft offensive tackle Russell Okung, but you never know. That's why you tune in.

But of course, the Redskins aren't the only team whose fate will be affected on Thursday night. And so, we look forward to the 2010 NFL Draft. Like last year, we'll predict the top fifteen picks and give some analysis on each.

2010 NFL Mock Draft

1. The St. Louis Rams select Sam Bradford, quarterback, Oklahoma. Not much surprise here at this point, with how much discussion there has been about Bradford's rise up everyone's draft board, but remember right after the NCAA football season ended? Ndamukong Suh was everyone's #1 pick. I guess we shouldn't be surprised when a quarterback ends up going #1 overall, though. Seven of the past ten first overall selections have been quarterbacks.
2. The Detroit Lions select Ndamukong Suh, defensive tackle, Nebraska. I don't generally get into college football, but I rooted like crazy for Nebraska when they played Texas in the Big 12 title game. A loss by Texas could have forced Cincinnati, Boise State, or TCU into the BCS title game, which is all I've ever wanted out of college football. Anyways, Suh is an elite defensive line talent, and the Lions are still the kind of team that just needs players.
3. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Gerald McCoy, defensive tackle, Oklahoma. There's been some debate over which elite defensive tackle is the better player, but in the end, both guys will probably be long-time successful pros. There aren't a lot of ways to go wrong in this draft, especially early on. Tampa, like Detroit, should just be looking for talent, and McCoy has it in spades.
4. The Washington Redskins select Russell Okung, offensive tackle, Oklahoma State. The more I read about Okung and the other tackles in this draft, the more I want the Redskins to find a way to reasonably trade down. None of these OTs is an elite, Jonathan Ogden/Orlando Pace caliber player, and there look to be four or five potentially very good tackles. If the Redskins hold onto the pick, Okung is the closest to a sure thing, so he's the pick.
5. The Kansas City Chiefs select Eric Berry, safety, Tennessee. A lot of the talk has been that Berry would be the best player available, but that Kansas City would be concerned about giving "top 5 money" to a safety. Hogwash, I say. It would be much more costly to pass on a premier player and watch him return interceptions for touchdowns for the Browns. The first non-Big 12 player will be Berry, here at #5.
   
6. The Seattle Seahawks select C.J. Spiller, running back, Clemson. I do think that the Seahawks will look long and hard at the various offensive linemen available, but with a new coach, especially a coach from college like Pete Carroll, I just expect him to want to go out and get a new toy for his offense. Spiller is highly rated, and I think he's their main target. With another pick later in the round, I imagine they'll be hoping that one of the top offensive tackles falls to them, which is a fair guess.
7. The Cleveland Browns select Dez Bryant, wide receiver, Oklahoma State. This doesn't feel like the pick that the Browns will make, but every time I run through the logic in my head, it makes the most sense. Their offensive line is actually pretty good, so I don't see them going after one of the remaining tackles. Mike Holmgren apparently doesn't think much of Jimmy Clausen, or so people tell me. And the intriguing defensive options don't seem to have enough value to take here. Bryant could help a lethargic Browns offense to actually scare some folks, and after signing Jake Delhomme, you'd better get him a weapon.
8. The Oakland Raiders select Jimmy Clausen, quarterback, Notre Dame. After last year's selection of Darrius Heyward-Bey, and the selection of Sebastian Janikowski in the first round of the 2000 draft, the Raiders have this aura of unpredictability around them. But as you look deeper, that's just not the case. While Darren McFadden, JaMarcus Russell, and Robert Gallery may not have turned out, they were all very reasonable picks, even "safe" picks. You can't blame Al Davis for trying to think outside the box. I think this year he stays reasonable, and sees Clausen as a guy who put up great numbers against top competition in college. He's a completely fair pick.
9. The Buffalo Bills select Brian Bulaga, offensive tackle, Iowa. A pretty boring pick for a team that's been pretty boring the past few years. New head coach Chan Gailey has been coordinating offenses for long enough to know the value of a strong offensive line, and if Brian Bulaga falls to their pick at #9, I'd be pretty shocked if the Bills didn't snag him.
10. The Jacksonville Jaguars select Jason Pierre-Paul, defensive end, South Florida. The Jags registered a measly 14 sacks in 2009, so obviously getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks is a desperate need. I've seen Pierre-Paul, Derrick Morgan, and Jerry Hughes all mentioned as the top DE in this draft, so any of them could go here. I mostly picked Pierre-Paul because he went to USF, and so he could maybe generate a little more buzz by staying in-state. Unlike some pundits, I don't see Tim Tebow as an option here.
11. The Denver Broncos select Rolando McClain, linebacker, Alabama. Every "big board" I've seen has McClain lower than this, but every mock draft I've seen has the Broncos taking him here. I'm not going to pretend I know something that the experts don't. McClain was the anchor for a sensational Crimson Tide defense last year, and everything points to him being a high character guy as well. Denver recently acquitted themselves of Brandon Marshall, so you have to think character is a factor for them.
12. The Miami Dolphins select Dan Williams, defensive tackle, Tennessee. The Dolphins run a 3-4 defense and don't have an elite nose tackle, so Williams is a nice fit. There was some thought that Dez Bryant was a perfect fit at this pick, but A) I've already got him well off the board, and B) the Dolphins just acquired Brandon Marshall, so wide receiver is suddenly not a need.
13. The San Francisco 49ers select Trent Williams, offensive tackle, Oklahoma. Just a couple years ago, the 49ers took another workout warrior, tight end Vernon Davis. Williams was impressive at the combine, as well as already being a highly touted tackle. Honestly, after seeing Williams fall this far, I went back over my draft board to make sure I didn't miss something, but this is how I see things playing out, which would be a coup for San Francisco.
14. The Seattle Seahawks select Anthony Davis, offensive tackle, Rutgers. Remember when the Seahawks reached for C.J. Spiller in the hopes that one of the top tier offensive tackles would fall to them? Well, hello Seattle, Anthony Davis just so happens to fall into that category. He's actually got the upside to be the best tackle from this class if he can overcome maturity concerns. Davis or Trent Williams would be a great result here if the Seahawks go for Spiller with the #6 pick.
15. The New York Giants select Derrick Morgan, defensive end, Georgia Tech. The sports talk radio interviews I hear suggest that Osi Umenyiora may be dealt, possibly on draft day, which would create a distinct need for a defensive end. Morgan and TCU's Jerry Hughes are both on the board here, but Morgan's quality has been better publicized, so I'll go with him. Hey, the Giants are still a New York team. They still react to public opinion on some level.
    

I'm holding out hope that the Redskins are able to find a way to trade down a few picks and get back into the second and/or third rounds. Everyone says this is one of the deepest drafts in years, and given the fact that the Redskins seem likely to select merely the best of several offensive tackles, the opportunity for creating some value by trading down seems distinct.

Twi-Night Doubleheader - Week 2

Fantasy Players of the Week

• AL Hitter: Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Indians (.579, 5 R, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB) - Here's another tidbit: Choo struck out only once in 29 plate appearances last week.
• NL Hitter: Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies (.333, 8 R, 5 HR, 8 RBI) - He and Matt Kemp had almost identical lines, but Utley gets the nod for doing it while playing second base for you.
• AL Pitcher: Ricky Romero, SP, Blue Jays (1-1, 18 Ks, 1.69/0.63) - You all know about his near no-hitter, but he actually lowered his ERA in his following start, a tough loss to the Angels in which he gave up just one run.
• NL Pitcher: Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals (2-0, 16 Ks, 1.06/0/76) - Apparently Wainwright is taking out his frustration at losing last year's Cy Young race on every hitter he faces.

Go Pick Up...

• AL Hitter: Alberto Callaspo, 2B/3B, Royals (26% owned) - The concerns coming into this season were playing time and consistency. Callaspo's played in 11 of Kansas City's 12 games, and only failed to pick up a hit in two of them. Homers and steals will be limited, but he's a great filler, and his position flexibility helps even more in deeper leagues.
• NL Hitter: Ivan Rodriguez, C, Nationals (39% owned) - Pudge just isn't going away. He's now got six multi-hit games, and leads all NL starting catchers in runs (9) and batting average (.444). The job is all his until Jesus Flores recovers from his current injury, and it will be his again when Flores suffers his next injury.
• AL Pitcher: Fernando Rodney, RP, Angels (48% owned) - Inexplicably, he's available in more than half of Yahoo leagues. He hasn't given up a run since taking over the closer job for the injured Brian Fuentes. If he holds up, don't be surprised if he holds the job when Fuentes comes back.
• NL Pitcher: Matt Lindstrom, RP, Astros (37% owned???) - He's not amazing, and Houston may only win 50 games, but chances are they'll all be pretty close. He's a closer, and he's got electric stuff..sometimes.

Lamentations From My Main Fantasy Team

• Prince Fielder, Chris Davis, and Carlos Lee have zero home runs thus far. They combined for 93 HRs last year.
• In terms of runs scored last season, Jon Lester has faced the #1 (Yankees), #5 (Twins), and #7 (Rays) offenses in baseball so far this season. Starting him against two of them was my fault, not his.
• Trevor Hoffman has given up at least one run in four of his five appearances this year, yet he's 1-1 with 3 saves. Of even greater concern are the nine hits he's given up in five innings. He's been utterly hittable.
• Matt Kemp and Miguel Cabrera are awesome. Those aren't lamentations, just facts.
  

Is OPS a Useful Statistic?

What makes a statistic useful? I'd say two factors go into it.

1. How well does the statistic reflect the characteristics it's trying to portray? On-base percentage is a pretty good example; it does a great job of representing how frequently a player reaches base.
2. How easy is it to derive that information? Again, let's look at on-base percentage. If a player has a career OBP of exactly .400 (like Brian Giles), then you can say that, ignoring anomalies, he was able to reach first base and avoid generating an out in 40% of his plate appearances. Simple, straight to the point.

The statistic we're talking about, OPS, is the result of adding two other statistics together: on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The idea is that, by combining those two numbers, you can determine a player's value as far as avoiding outs (OBP) and hitting for power (SLG). In theory, this kind of action makes some sense. If you're able to find a player who doesn't cause outs and gets extra-base hits with regularity, he's clearly a hitter who's going to benefit your lineup.

Which brings us to our question. Is OPS a useful statistic? The answer, for the most part, is no.

I have no qualms with the theoretical side of OPS, and I have no problem with an attempt to generate a new statistic that helps people (both insiders and outside observers) know more about players. My problem is that adding those two statistics together is the most simple and illogical thing you can do.

I offer this illustration of my point. I have two quarters and four pennies in my pocket. How useful is it for me to say I have six "moneys" in my pocket? Or should I maybe try to think of some other way to convey what I've got in my pocket (like 54 cents)? OPS just seems like a lazy stat.

Furthermore, we all learned in elementary school that you can't add fractions that have different denominators. In order to add 1/3 to 1/4, you have to convert them. The maximum possible OBP is 1.000, if you reach base in every plate appearance. The maximum possible SLG is 4.000, if you were to hit a home run in every plate appearance. OPS basically says that .4/1 + .6/4 = 1. The math itself tells you that the statistic is flawed.

Let's go back to the two criteria I cited.

First, does OPS reflect the characteristics it's trying to portray? Well, sort of. The guys with the highest OPSs are generally the best hitters, but I have a hard time saying that the order of players' ranks in OPS is indicative of how effective they were at the plate. I can't really get behind the idea that Joey Votto had a better 2009 than Mark Teixeira. And it seems impossible that J.D. Drew was a better hitter than Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, and Victor Martinez last year.

But I think it's the second question that puts OPS completely out to pasture. What exactly does OPS mean? Ryan Howard had .931...whatevers? Units of OPS? OPS percentage? I'm willing to yield a little bit on slugging percentage (which as I mentioned is out of 4.000, rather than 1.000), because it's been around forever, and because it's got a specific formula whose result makes sense (total bases/plate appearances). It should probably be called "slugging ratio" or "slugging rate," but the name won't be changed. Regardless, the actual rates are useful; they tell us who makes the most out of their PAs. Prince Fielder slugged .602 last year, which means that over ten plate appearances, he would generate six total bases (e.g. a home run and two singles, or three doubles, or a double, two walks and two singles).

I think there is a stat out there waiting to be created that can combine this information into a useful, effective number. Heck, it probably already exists as VORP or runs created, two stats I don't really appreciate because they're not on Yahoo's player pages. I just know one thing: the stat we're looking for is not OPS.

Should Ben Stay or Should He Go?

First, let's dispense with one thing. I don't like the Pittsburgh Steelers. Some might say that I hate the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they wouldn't be completely wrong. There's certainly something that feels like hate brewing inside of me when I talk about them.

That being said, I've generally been able to be pretty objective when it comes to talking about them in Joe and Joe context, or in any analytical context, so I'm going to take a crack at the current situation with Ben Roethlisberger.

Let's start with the facts. Roethlisberger faced criminal charges on sexual assault in two different circumstances. In both instances, the charges were eventually dropped, though there's still a civil suit outstanding in one case. Additionally, the Steelers have had a well-publicized and long-cultivated reputation for being intolerant of people with poor characters, parting ways with Bam Morris (marijuana), Plaxico Burress (attitude), and Cedrick Wilson (hit his girlfriend) for character issues. Additionally, just this week the Steelers traded Santonio Holmes to the New York Jets after finding out he'd be suspended the first four games of the 2010 season, for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy.

But hang on. Right around the time Cedrick Wilson was cut for hitting his girlfriend, James Harrison broke down his girlfriend's door, snapped her cell phone in half, and slapped her across the face. Harrison faced no punishment from the Steelers' front office. Why? The company line was that each instance was viewed independently, and the two situations were not the same. To Pittsburgh apologists, the difference was a closed fist versus an open hand. To everyone else, the difference was that Wilson was a fourth string wide receiver, and Harrison was arguably their best linebacker. To fans in the rest of the league, it was a message saying that the Steelers are no different than any other team; on-field performance outweighs off-field transgressions.

It should then come as no surprise that Santonio Holmes was only traded once it was determined that he would miss four games in 2010 due to suspension. Pittsburgh likely felt they could make a statement and cut someone who was going to play at most 12 games anyways, so the decision was easier.

But now, with a large public outcry, specifically from the African-American community, the Steelers are faced with the decision on what to do with Ben Roethlisberger. The commissioner's office is expected to make a ruling soon on whether or not Roethlisberger will be punished through the NFL's personal conduct policy, and a 4+ game suspension by Roger Goodell could take the Rooneys off the hook. They'd be able to say, "We agree with the commissioner's decision, and consider the matter closed." Most teams have abided this general train of thought, and suspended players' teams have not been held accountable for discipline as a result (I cite Michael Vick on the Eagles, Adam Jones on the Titans/Cowboys, and Tank Johnson on the Bears/Cowboys). The commissioner has basically agreed to play bad cop for the whole league, allowing the teams to be the good cops.

And so now we come to the real question, and the title of this post. Should the Pittsburgh Steelers actively attempt to trade Ben Roethlisberger? I've heard and read that the rumors floating around about a trade to the Rams are untrue, and generally I believe that, since franchise quarterbacks rarely get traded. But we're not here to talk about "will it happen" or "won't it happen"; that's for the experts and the insiders. I'm an opinion-speaker, and so I will state my opinion.

If there were an offer from the Rams of this year's #1 overall pick and a first round pick next year, I think that the Steelers should think long and hard before turning it down. The reasons:

1. The window on this team's potential short-term success may already be closed. The defense is getting older, Hines Ward probably will be gone in two to three years, you just traded Santonio Holmes, and Troy Polamalu, the team's most popular and most important player, has two years left on his deal, and will almost certainly command a $10 million/year contract. That means he'll likely be gone as well.
   
   
2. The #1 overall pick is a great pick to have. If the team and Mike Tomlin both like Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen, you have the chance to draft a guy you believe will be your next franchise quarterback. If you're not wild about either of them, you can take Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy and have an elite defensive tackle for the next ten years. Furthermore, the opportunity to trade down always exists, and the Steelers have been fantastic at finding good talent between picks 10 and 75.
   
   
3. The resulting PR would be a boon. Right now, the Steelers are in a no-man's land between "character counts" and "anything to win." Among sports analysts or more passive sports fans, these minor hypocrisies are irrelevant. To the average sports fan, though, they're unacceptable. Most Steelers fans I've met take pride in their team's "no nonsense" stance when it comes to character issues, and are either emotionally torn or uninformed regarding James Harrison's infractions. Not that Pittsburgh needs much of a boost when it comes to fanship, but you can never have too many fans.

That's my theoretical analysis of the trade. My personal opinion? No way you trade him.

See, I fall into the "anything to win" camp much more distinctly than most. I think it's silly that no team has signed Barry Bonds. I thought it was ridiculous that Terrell Owens got deactivated for the second half of the season for saying he'd rather have Brett Favre as his quarterback than Donovan McNabb. Does that mean that I buy into guys like Albert Haynesworth, who seem to care very little about their team and winning? Sometimes, yes. But it's not like Roethlisberger hasn't shown that he wants to win. He leaves it all out on the field, and his track record is impressive, even if you're accounting for him being backed up by one of the best defenses in the world.

Of course, I also say you pay Troy Polamalu whatever he asks for.

NHL 2010 Playoff Picks - First Round

I don't claim to be a hockey expert, but I am enjoying hockey more and more these days, and I'm paying more and more attention to it. Also, this is a sports blog, so it's my responsibility to talk about most sports. Not golf, of course, because golf is absurd and pointless. But most other sports.

Eastern Conference

#1 Washington Capitals vs. #8 Montreal Canadiens
I'm hearing all over town that Montreal was the one matchup we didn't want to see in the first round. I still feel fine about the Caps' ability to overwhelm opponents, even Canadian opponents.
Washington in 5

#2 New Jersey Devils vs. #7 Philadelphia Flyers
All I know for sure is that the Devils are really damn good. Martin Brodeur is still elite, and I don't care how physical the Flyers play, Zach Parise is going to find a way to put goals in nets.
New Jersey in 5

#3 Buffalo Sabres vs. #6 Boston Bruins
This seems to be one of the sexier picks for an upset, and I do think the Bruins have got a good squad, but I just can't see Ryan Miller letting the Sabres come up short in the first round.
Buffalo in 6

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Ottawa Senators
Neither team is particularly good defensively, but the Penguins have the offensive firepower and a potentially dominant goaltender. It could be explosive, but it could also just not be close.
Pittsburgh in 5


Western Conference

#1 San Jose Sharks vs. #8 Colorado Avalanche
I wish I could predict good things for Colorado, but there's really no chance they come out of this series with a win. I mean, like a win in any game. San Jose is stacked.
San Jose in 4

#2 Chicago Blackhawks vs. #7 Nashville Predators
The Blackhawks are basically Capitals West: they've got a ton of firepower, but their defense can be problematic. Nashville is the opposite, which could make the series interesting, but I wouldn't bank on it.
Chicago in 5

#3 Vancouver Canucks vs. #6 Los Angeles Kings
The Kings? The Kings are in the playoffs? Is nothing sacred? Seriously, though, they're actually pretty decent, and the Canucks aren't unstoppable. In the end, though, I'll take the veterans.
Vancouver in 6

#4 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings
Unstoppable force (Red Wings' puck movement) vs. immovable object (Phoenix's Ilya Bryzgalov). Today, I'll take Detroit, but if Bryzgalov gets hot, forget about it.
Detroit in 7

Twi-Night Doubleheader - Week 1

We're going to try something new this year. I'm going to give you a fantasy baseball update on a weekly basis, with various tidbits of information. And I'm naming it "Twi-Night Doubleheader" because it's a sweet baseball term. Here goes.

(Ownage numbers retrieved from Yahoo)

Fantasy Players of the Week

AL Hitter: Curtis Granderson (.348, 4 runs, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB) - A couple other guys had better run production, but getting two homers and three steals in one week is truly a fantasy.
NL Hitter: Albert Pujols (.375, 7 runs, 4 HR, 10 RBI) - You have to think Pujols will find his way onto this list more often than anyone else. Pujols 1, Rest of NL 0.

AL Pitcher: Dallas Braden (1-0, 12 Ks, 2.77/0.85) - The AL didn't have the elite performances that the NL did, but Braden had one great start with a no-decision, and a good start with a win. Honorable mention goes to Jon Rauch, who picked up 4 saves in his first week as the Twins' closer.
NL Pitcher: Roy Halladay (2-0, 17 Ks, 0.56/0.94) - It was neck and neck between Halladay and Tim Lincecum, but I'll give the nod to Halladay for having a better ERA over more innings. You have to think that any week either of these guys pitches twice, though, they'll be the favorites.

Go Pick Up...

AL Hitter: J.J. Hardy, SS, Twins (.286, 3 runs, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 37% owned) - My guess is that 2009 was the anomaly. A .280 batting average with around 25 home runs seems pretty reasonable.
NL Hitter: Kelly Johnson, 2B, Diamondbacks (.368, 6 runs, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 25% owned) - It was just last year that pundits projected a 15-15 or better season for Johnson. And Arizona is a fine place to hit, even if you're batting eighth.
AL Pitcher: Kevin Gregg, RP, Blue Jays (2 saves, 4 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 22% owned) - It's obvious that the Jays' pen is still open to interpretation, but Gregg has been their best reliever so far. If that endures more than another week or two, I can't see him not being handed the closer job for good.
NL Pitcher: Franklin Morales, RP, Rockies (2 saves, 3.00 ERA, 38% owned) - He may not be completely lights out, but Morales has elite stuff, and with Huston Street's injury history, he could be good for 15-20 saves when all is said and done.

Thought You Ought To Know...

• ...Brad Lidge still can't get anyone out, but now it's A ball hitters who are knocking him around. If you've got Ryan Madson, keep him.
• ...Barry Bonds hasn't retired...yet.
• ...Brian Roberts just got sent to the DL; fantasy owners who have been starting him through this .143 early period are not unhappy.
• ...Mike Gonzalez is in trouble.
  

An Admission

I think I'm probably in the minority among Capitals fans when I say this, but I can't help it. My fanship of any team has always been deeply rooted in terror, so here goes:

I hope Washington doesn't have to play the Pittsburgh Penguins in the playoffs.

Despite sweeping the Penguins in the regular season, I still feel like the Capitals would face an unfavorable matchup if pitted against the Penguins. Sidney Crosby is obviously an elite talent, and he seems to play big in big games. Additionally, while Pittsburgh was hotter going into the playoffs in 2009 than they are this year, they've got much of the same personnel, including, most importantly, Marc-Andre Fleury, who was absolutely fantastic in the playoffs last season.

Do I think the Caps can beat the Penguins? Of course I do. They've already taken four out of four games thus far this season. And I know that the Caps will have to face off against at least one other opponent before a possible matchup against Pittsburgh. And, while I'm no hockey expert, I know the Capitals this year are arguably the best team in hockey. I'm just saying that, as a fan, I'm generally panicked about my favorite team's ability to succeed. And with Pittsburgh being last year's villain, I'm going to be worried about them until they're gone.

I'm looking at you, Ottawa.

Declawed

Who is this person people are calling Tiger Woods? This is not the Tiger I enjoyed watching strike fear into the hearts of every golfer with the misfortune of being paired with him. I understand this is a different time in Tiger's life. He is trying to rebuild his image, if only for the sponsors.

But I find myself growing tiresome of his, "I didn't like the person I had become" attitude. Grow some balls. Learn from Sir Charles Barkley. He doesn't apologize for his compulsive gambling habit, his multiple DUIs, or his outspoken nature. This is who he is. He came out and said, "I don't believe professional athletes should be role models, parents should be." So why such an outcry for an apology from Tiger Woods? He hasn't broken any laws; in fact, you might argue he was a victim of domestic violence.

With each public apology, my opinion of him erodes. I understand the need for the first public explanation of the events. I can even understand the interviews he had with selected members of the media, but was his press conference at the Masters this past Monday really necessary? If this were the old Tiger he would have answered every question about his personal life with "I have already addressed that" and would have moved on. But this "new and improved," in-treatment Tiger still feels the need to ingratiate himself with the public. He reeks of weakness. It makes me have less respect for him as a golfer.

I'm not a Tiger fan because of what he does with his private life. I am a fan because he is a magician on the golf course. I find that magic fading with every sad, pathetic look he gives to the camera. I can only hope this is temporary, and he'll soon get back to making his opponents shake like a junkie needing a fix.

Lords of the Realm 2 / Summer Reading

First and foremost, any of you who played Lords of the Realm 2 need to listen to this song:



(You can download the track for yourself here)

Now that that's out of the way, let's talk about the other topic: summer reading. Remember when we were in school and we were expected to read on our own over the summer? I say "supposed to" because I know I never actually did, unless I could get away with something I was going to read anyways (Michael Crichton's Sphere comes to mind). But now, as an adult, I've come to appreciate the occasional foray into literature. I've even purchased more than one book in the past twelve months. I've got at least one extremely long road trip, and I'll likely have many other opportunities to get some serious reading done.

So I turn to you, my loyal readers...or reader. Offer me suggestions of books I should perhaps attempt to read this summer. Particular attention should be paid to books in two categories:

1. Books that you yourself own and could let me borrow.
2. Books by Nick Hornby.

I look forward to your suggestions/offerings.

The #4 Pick

The Redskins have the #4 pick in this year's draft. Because of that, they only really need to determine a "Top 4" prospects for that pick. And after having traded their second round pick to acquire Donovan McNabb, the #4 guy is probably the last guy they'll draft for a while. Obviously, they'll develop an entire draft board, but with regards to that first pick, barring a trade, they need four guys on their big board.

And so, I will now tell them who they should take, in order, at that #4 pick. Right now, it seems like any of three players could go first, and any of six or seven players could be a reasonable selection at #4. A lot of it depends on how things go in those first three picks, and from what I hear, those picks are a little bit wide open.

Initially, it seemed like the Rams would take Ndamukong Suh as a no-brainer first pick, but after Sam Bradford had a productive workout and proved his health, he's gotten himself back into the top pick discussion, and it's thrown the whole top ten of the draft into question. So, for the Redskins' benefit, I will come up with a top 4 list, a list of the only four guys that Washington should consider with their #1 pick. And here it is.

The Washington Redskins Top Four

1. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
   The reality, I believe, is that Suh is the one surefire transcendent talent in this year's draft. While defensive tackle might not be a glaring need for the Redskins, they did part ways with Cornelius Griffin, creating a potential opening. I know that the defense is expected to run as a 3-4, but I feel like you work with elite talent if you can get it, and Suh would be elite talent. He's also the one guy that you know, without a doubt, will not be available at the fourth pick.
2. Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
   I truly believe that Suh and McCoy are the kind of players who trump the Redskins' potential needs and demand being taken if at all available. I don't expect either to be on the board when Washington picks at #4, so it's probably not worth arguing about, but you've got to come up with a top four going into this draft day. Suh and McCoy belong at the top.
   
3. Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
   I had Sam Bradford at #3, but when Washington went and traded for Donovan McNabb, everything changed. Suddenly, the 'Skins needed to fill holes, because they've got a veteran QB and an opportunity to be successful in the short term. "Best available" became less reasonable, and "best fit" replaced it. Okung is the consensus best offensive lineman in the draft, and seems to also be the closest to a sure thing as a plug-and-play left tackle. With limited draft picks and a dearth of options in free agency, you almost have to take a tackle here.
   
4. Anthony Davis, Rutgers
   I would have liked to have found a way to recommend Eric Berry, who I think will be a superstar, but after the McNabb trade, this first round pick became a pick that you absolutely have to use to make your team better right now. Berry will be great, but a game-changer he may not be. Davis could be the most talented offensive lineman in the draft, though he's got some character questions. Still, with him, the risk/reward is star OL versus problem child OL, where taking Berry will leave offensive line as a glaringly empty position. If Okung and the two elite DTs are off the board, you might as well take a potential big time player.
   

Just to give you a little bit extra, here's what I had written about Bradford when I had him at #3, pre-McNabb.

Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
I've always liked Bradford. As you might remember, he was looked at as a potential #1 overall pick last year, before he decided that he was coming back for another year of college ball. The talent seems there, but perhaps more importantly, every interview I've heard and every report on him has given him really exceptional marks on character and leadership. As we've learned from guys like Jeff George and Ryan Leaf, a big arm isn't all you need to succeed in the NFL. All indications are that Bradford has the head for the job.

Perhaps the most important piece of this sequence is that the acquisition of McNabb should completely remove Jimmy Clausen from consideration for the #4 pick. He's not the best quarterback prospect in the draft, and something about him just doesn't strike me as a potential franchise quarterback. I'm hoping the Redskins were unsatisfied with him as well, and that's why they made this trade.

I still do like Bradford, and if Shanahan likes Bradford too, and he's available at the #4 pick, I won't be mad at the Skins for taking him. But I would wonder where exactly they'd expect to get the kind of players you need to fill out a professional offensive line that won't leave McNabb running for the hills.

Donovan Comes To Town

He's not exactly Santa Claus, but the addition of Donovan McNabb to the Redskins could be a nice gift for the people of Washington.

I'll state first, for the record, that I have always hated McNabb. I know some of it is due to a divisional bias I have against all other NFC East teams and players, but I've come around to Tony Romo a little bit, so it can't all be attributed to his team affiliation.

I don't know, between Rush Limbaugh and Terrell Owens, McNabb always seemed to be on the whiny, pitied side of things. Your wide receiver said he'd rather have another quarterback? Boo hoo. An historically racist political pundit talked about how the media had made you into a better quarterback than you actually are because you're black? I'm unsympathetic. Winning a Super Bowl, or at least treating the last two minutes of the Super Bowl like you want to win, cures all these issues.

Moreover, I've generally been unimpressed by his passing ability. As my Eagle fan colleagues will attest to, McNabb seems to short-arm or underthrow more passes than anyone in football. He's able to avoid interceptions this way, but it's frustrating to watch drives stall because your quarterback threw the ball into the ground. I do think he's one of the best quarterback runners I've ever seen, though; he's quick, he's elusive, and has great vision. If the Redskins' offensive line doesn't improve, that skill set will be uniquely useful.

Overall, though, McNabb has a far better track record of success than Jason Campbell or Rex Grossman, both individually and as a team leader. And with the salary cap being a non-factor, I have no problem with Washington taking on McNabb's salary, especially when Bruce Allen indicated that he had the authority to spend as much money as he saw fit this offseason. So I like the move. I think it makes the Redskins much better in 2010.

I do think it (rightly) changes how they will approach the NFL draft this April, and it's in that regard that I think this move might be the most valuable. I'll explain that in tomorrow's post, where I discuss the Redskins' first round pick in depth. Stay tuned.

The McNabb Trade

Over the weekend, I had crafted what I thought was a pretty interesting blog post regarding the Redskins' decision with the #4 overall pick in this April's NFL draft. I had marked Sam Bradford, Gerald McCoy, and Ndamukong Suh as the likely top three players selected, leaving Washington with a whole slew of comparably valued players to choose from.

And then, of course, the Redskins went out and traded for Donovan McNabb, and their whole team identity and potential draft strategy went out the window. So now I've got to craft a different blog post, and I'll do it, but you're not going to get it today. Today, you get my blog post telling you about the next blog post. Eat it.

Music Visualizations

So I was listening to some music today at the office (OC Remixes, of course), and I use Windows Media Player at work. I watched the visualization briefly, but it didn't seem to offer much of a matchup to the music. So my question to all of you is, do you guys know of any good visualizations out there? Obviously I'll put Google to work and see if I can't come up with something worthwhile, but I'd be appreciative if anyone has got a visualization they can recommend that really shines. Mostly, I'm just looking for something that does a good job of matching up with the music.

Anybody?

The Friday Before

First and foremost, yes, my colleague was correct when he called me out. Joe and Joe Sports isn't going anywhere; I will not be joining Yahoo's crack team of fantasy analysts...and Funston and Buser. I do have the utmost respect for Andy Behrens and his work, though, and I stand by my recommendation that you check out his stuff.

But today is more important than just the day after April Fool's day. It's the Friday before the beginning of the baseball (and fantasy baseball) season. I'm in three leagues this year (so far), one of which drafts on Saturday night (and I'm pushing for it to get changed to an auction draft; come on, Tony!).

The weekend before Opening Day is a great time. Every team has the ability to compete for a title, every team has the potential to win big or lose huge. All of your draft strategies and shrewd moves are still alive, could still pan out. In fact, April might be the most disappointing month of the fantasy baseball season, because that's when you start to realize that you overestimated this guy, or you were foolish to doubt that guy. Owners often over-emphasize happenings in April because that's when everyone is paying attention.

Is this where I tell you to stay the course? Have faith in your draft? Trust your instincts? No. Those instincts led me to ignore guys like Cliff Lee and Carlos Quentin. Make sure you're willing to adjust on the fly. Granted, you don't want to abandon all of your pre-season thought processes, but make sure that you don't allow yourself to be blinded by predisposition.

If you do, all those exciting "could be's" will turn into "might've been's."

Joe and Joe Sports Farewell

After an exciting last two years (and a fairly unexciting first two years), it is with a heavy heart that I report that Joe and Joe Sports will be closing down. I have a great opportunity to join Yahoo's fantasy sports team as a part-time assistant for Andy Behrens (yes, the Andy Behrens) on his Roto Arcade feature. Unfortunately, in order to join the Yahoo team, I have to sign a contract that stipulates that I won't compete for customers (web traffic in this instance), so I can no longer be a part of Joe and Joe Sports.

The agreement allows previously published content to remain published, so I will keep the site up for at least the duration of my contract with Google's web-hosting. I'm sure you'd all be heartbroken if you couldn't go back and see that I was dead-on about Matt Ryan being the right guy, right away for the Falcons in 2008. Heartbroken.

It's been a great run, everyone, and my work for Yahoo doesn't start until May 1st, so stick around while we clean up shop. Maybe you can take home a seat cover!

NCAA Tournament Expansion "Probable"

I read on ESPN today that Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany indicated that expansion of the NCAA men's basketball tournament from 65 to 96 was "probable." It sounds like a big mistake, for two major reasons.

First, the basketball side of things. Further diluting the tournament doesn't seem like my idea of making the tournament more fun. And you have to think that a lot of those teams will be the middle-of-the-pack power conference teams. I know that, because 14 of the 32 NIT teams were from BCS conferences. You'd also presumably be giving some teams a first round bye, which means that a lot of those bottom-seeded teams, the 14, 15, and 16 seeds, won't get a chance to play Kentucky or Duke. Instead, they'll have to face off against N.C. State or Dayton just to get a chance to get walloped.

Will it create the opportunity for more upsets? Sure. Siena has a much better chance of beating Northwestern than they do of beating Syracuse. But you watch because every once in a while, you get a game like Ohio vs. Georgetown this year, or Iowa State vs. Hampton from back in 2001. You watch because the upsets seem so improbable, and the big ones are so rare.

Additionally, from a business standpoint, I think expansion is a mistake. You've got a great thing going, where the first round games account for over a billion dollars in lost productivity, a tremendous amount of Internet traffic, a massive afternoon ratings boost for CBS, and probably increased business for sports bars and restaurants. It's essentially a sports fan's holiday. And I haven't heard any logical way for that excitement to be preserved in an expanded bracket.

Speaking of brackets, how on Earth are you going to fit 96 teams on one sheet of paper so you can cross off your picks as they (inevitably) get bounced?

The one thing that's been good about Delany's comment is the discussion it's prompted in the sports world. Doug Gottlieb has his opinion, all of my local sportscasters have theirs, and I had a discussion in the office today with a couple of co-workers about positives and negatives. One suggested that he'd be alright with adding more teams as long as there was some effort to ensure that most of those additional bids went to schools in small or mid-major conferences, and I echo his sentiment on that. Teams should have to earn their way into the tournament; Kent State (24-10, 13-3 in the MAC) accomplished more in 2009-2010 than N.C. State (20-16, 5-11 in the ACC), so they are more deserving of an NCAA tournament bid in my book.

One thing we can all agree on, though. Even 96 teams would be better than the BCS.

2010 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Draft Roundup

Just like any other league, we all think different things going into the draft, and we all have different responses to other teams' decisions. I decided to take a note from Yahoo's Brandon Funston and asked each team a couple of questions regarding their draft. I also asked each owner to declare who they thought to be the steal and reach of the draft.

I also asked Eddie Mattingly, brother and colleague, to come up with two questions for me, so I could defend my own rash decisions.

I offer the responses of each team that chose to participate below. This time, for kicks, I've sorted them alphabetically by owner's last name, then first name (since we have a few Mattinglys):

Ed Close, Columbus DamKnights

1) As I'm sure you noticed/planned, your team projects to finish well above everyone else in batting average, but looks underwhelming as far as power potential. Do you expect to be able to find power as the season progresses, or are you willing to just make that trade-off?

I'm certain that I tend to value batting average over other categories simply because I grew up that way, as a fan without regard to the fantasy value. However, I attempted to draft/keep younger players who hit well and would get an opportunity to bat in power or run producing positions in their respective lineups. I dislike drafting .250 hitting power hitters early in a draft. It is simply a prejudice of mine. I traded away Adam Dunn years ago because I hated the drag on BA.

As far as power, I've made a few trade overtures, even packaging Joe Mauer to one owner. Robinson Cano may bat 5th in a Yankees lineup and may be able to give me a lift. Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Snider, and Stephen Drew may deliver some needed power as well. Absent a big deal, I'll be patient and take a longer view (a few seasons) at this. I don't think you can pickup big boppers during the season. I added Jason Giambi one year and he gave me some pop at the end, but that was unexpected luck.

A note: I had Billy Butler on the top of my board but the Suspects drafted him earlier in round one.

2) Joe Nathan, one of your eight keepers, was injured early in our draft, and will be out for the season. Did his injury affect your draft plans? And if so, how?

I made a keeper-level investment in one of the few great reliable closers. That turned out to be a mistake. When Nathan went down, I did not feel that I could prudently fill that hole with the closers that were still available. The closers I saw available would provide perhaps 15-20 saves at the cost of elevated ERA/WHIP. I felt the DamKnights could do better by drafting to my other needs first - namely, young hitters and starting pitchers that I liked. After several rounds, I felt I could then invest in a few closers that had a chance of producing at the level of the closers that were available when Nathan went down.

3) Steal of the draft?

I liked the Pronks selection of Gutierrez with selection ten of round 8, and I liked the Mosquitoes selection of Matusz in round 5, selection eight.

4) Reach of the draft?

I think the Mosquitoes selection of Strasburg in round one stands out as a reach. But I hope he proves me wrong. I also was surprised to see The Usual Suspects select Sheets just after Matusz.


Nick Engle, Huber Heights Heroes

1) I'm sure by now everyone knows, you've got a unique strategy on the hitting side, where you punt batting average. How did that work out for you last year, and how do you think it'll work out in its second year?

Whoa whoa, did I not draft enough BA? All kidding aside, I think the strategy worked pretty well last year. I had never previously finished higher than 10th in this league and, in no small part because of punting BA, I finished in 4th place. I was even leading the pack for a while after
the all star break.

As far as this year is considered, I think my offensive stats will be great; it's my pitching that is a little worrisome. Due to the fact that I was pushing for the title last year, I had 1 pick in the first 5 rounds of the draft this year. That hamstrung me when drafting and kept me from surrounding my keepers with solid guys. I would have to have break out years from guys like Matt Latos and bounce back years from Erik Bedard and Johan Santana for any shot at competing for the 'ship.

2) You drafted several relievers, but they've all got question marks surrounding their capacity for picking up saves. Do you expect to have to make a move mid-season to acquire more saves, or do you have more faith in your guys than I do?

No, I do not have any more faith than you do in my relief pitching. Again, due to my lack of picks in the draft, I missed the first two runs for closers. I ended up with some pretty provincial guys (Kerry Wood, Mike Gonzalez) and a huge question mark in Brad Lidge. There is always an Andrew Bailey in the free agent pool to be found, but it is a shark tank out there trying to get him first. If I am competing for the title by the all star break, you'll see me dealing for a closer. The beauty of a keeper league is that not everyone is playing for this year.

3) Steal of the draft?

I'll look at teams other than my own. I think Alexei Ramirez in the 6th round was a great nab.

4) Reach of the draft?

It's hard to criticize picking prospects early because of being in a keeper league. I think Suspects took Juan Pierre a bit earlier (4th round) than anyone would have, but he was almost finished his draft by that time.


Chip Hart, Mercer AutoWreckers

1) Off-season trades brought in Andre Ethier and Roy Halladay, and you were able to snag Hunter Pence with your first round pick. Now, there are murmurs about the AutoWreckers being a championship contender in 2010. What weaknesses do you think you'll have to shore up before making a title run?

Well, lets be honest...our team has made serious strides to get from cellar-dweller to middle-of-the-pack. Our previous GM made some terrible "win now" moves that we've been paying for these last couple of years. We averaged 38.6 overall points during the first four years of Middle Earth and an average overall points of 58.5 in the last two years. That 20-point swing speaks volumes of our efforts to turn this team around.

I think it's obvious that we're leaning less on the "rebuilding" and more on the "win now" these days, but we still have a lot of work to do. Being a championship contender would be an appropriate and reasonable goal for us this year. Getting over the hump to land that #1 spot is going require special attention, some solid moves, and a little luck. It'll start with the hitting. We like the moves we made to put together a solid starting line-up. Our batting average is going to be great, but our home runs will be a point of concern. The draft helped us in steals, a category that we're continuously struggling to be respectable in. Getting back to the top in RBIs will obviously help too. The idea is that an increase in home runs will increase our run and RBI production. Even a shot at a championship hinges on our ability to hit the ball.

2) Between Rick Porcello and Mark Buehrle, you've got two guys with really terrible K/IP rates. Do you expect their strikeout rates to improve, or do you see their other numbers as valuable enough to accept lower strikeout numbers?

The pitching, overall, is currently the least of our concerns. We have a strong staff after some bold trades and made some solid picks to support that. With Roy Halladay pitching in the National League and King Felix being known for his high K/IP, not to mention the strikeouts we'll be getting from our relievers, our strikeout production should be extremely high. During the draft process, we believed that we had a good handle on strikeouts and it allowed us to draft these players for their other qualities, and the potential they bring to the table. Though, let's be honest, an increase in their strikeout rate would definitely help the AutoWreckers.

3) Steal of the draft?

Our steals in the draft would have to include Chipper Jones, who we acquired with the 6th pick of the 8th round. Despite his age, he still produces at a high level. He dropped down the draft for awhile. We were lucky to acquire a solid veteran. He'll also be a great clubhouse presence. Another steal is looking like Chris Perez, who we took with the 6th pick of the last round. Since Kerry Wood sustained an injury, Perez will be looking to fill in and steal a few saves early on for us.

Other than the AutoWreckers' reach of the draft, Nolan Reimold who was taken in the 10th round with the 8th pick by Stewie's SexyParties. He's a burgeoning young star on the Orioles roster. He came up late last year and put up some decent numbers. He was even in the Rookie of the Year talks for much of the end of last season. Despite recovering from an Achilles injury, he'll probably be starting for the Orioles in left field. The reason I think he was such a steal at that spot comes from the ESPN projections, which are just slightly lower than Hunter Pence's projections (whom I took with my 1st round, 6th pick). Now, these are just predictions, but I was pretty surprised when I made the comparison. Reimold has a lot to do, I think, to get those numbers (like get back to 100%), but I feel like he dropped pretty far.

4) Reach of the draft

Honestly, its hard to say which players were a reach for us. AutoWreckers all have a superb talent and each bring a special quality to the game. However, if we had to mention someone, we'd probably have to say Miguel Montero. He was selected in the 7th round with the 6th pick. Up to that point, only the four catchers that were kept were off the board. We think he'll have a great year, but in hindsight, we probably could have waited another round or more before selecting him or another catcher. Mark Buehrle, who was selected in the 11th round with the 6th pick, was a surprise reach for us as well. In fact, when we drafted him, we originally considered him a steal since he dropped as low as he did. After a respectable year, we were surprised to realize he was on such few radars. Regardless, we were excited to take him and know he'll give us a great year.

Other than the AutoWreckers' reach of the draft, Steven Strasburg and Jason Heyward. These two prospects have been talked about as much any elite veteran. Will they be good? All indications up to this point seem to say, "yes." Will either of them be start the season on a Major League roster? Not Strasburg. Should these kids have been drafted? Yes, of course, but in the first two rounds? A little to high for me, but then again, I'm not really a great fantasy baseball source.

All in all, the offseason and draft has treated the AutoWreckers well. We have lofty goals this year and definitely hope to meddle with the best in Middle Earth. Our long term goals from a few years ago have turned to short term goals today. A championship would be a sweet treat and is the ultimate goal, but we have to keep reality in check. We're still a handful of moves and possibly a year or two away.


Joe Mandi, Akron Pronks

1) You ended up with a lot of guys with 20 HR / 20 SB potential, a tactic that landed your commissioner in 8th place in the league's inaugural season. Was this by design, or just a matter of happenstance with a "best available" strategy?

Loading up on 20/20 guys was a combination of several things. Since I was keeping Brian Roberts, Jayson Werth and Shin-Soo Choo, I already had three combo guys locked up. With my three other offensive keepers (Victor Martinez, Kendry Morales and Kevin Youkilis), I only had three offensive starter positions to fill and then two to three additional bench spots. My initial strategy was to nab one combo outfielder, one power bat for my utility spot and a young, speedy shortstop. After several rounds of filling pitching needs, I was able to land the combo outfielder in Nate McLouth, but the speed shortstops (Andrus, Escobar and Cabrera) went several rounds before I was willing to pay for them. I was ecstatic about being able to fall back on Alexi Ramirez, but this meant that I was probably going to be short on steals and that instead of drafting a power bat I would have to land another power/speed guy. Luckily, one of my pre-drafts targets was still around in Franklin Gutierrez, a guy I think is poised for a 25/25 season.

At the end of the day, my numbers showed that I would still probably be a little short on both power and speed, but hopefully my offensive team is well rounded enough to compete in all categories. All that being said, I invested in a potential bounce back power guy (Ryan Ludwick) and am going to be closely watching the waiver wire for a speedster to make up any deficiencies I have.

2) We'd all love to have Tim Lincecum as the anchor to our staff. How does having the most productive starter in baseball change your approach to putting together your pitching staff?

Lincy (as I like to call him) makes putting a pitching staff together a lot easier from the perspective that his ratios are so low that you can afford more risk without worrying about blowing a category. Generally I'm looking for guys with good strikeout ratios and with Lincecum I know I can absorb, for example, Jonathan Sanchez's ERA, keep my team ERA low and still get all those sweet, sweet Ks. While I didn't get Sanchez, I did latch onto Javier Vazquez's 200K, 15 win potential with the knowledge that if his ERA is 4.0+, I'll still be OK. Having Lincecum also allowed me to trade Cliff Lee for Victor Martinez prior to the season. While I'll miss Cliff Lee's great numbers, the positional scarcity Martinez has makes my team better, while I hoping I found someone (I'm looking at you Gavin Floyd) that isn't too big of a downgrade from Lee.

3) Steal of the draft?

Overall Steal of the Draft? Ryan Madson, 13th Round...umm, embarrassingly I kinda thought he had been off the board for several rounds when this pick was made.

Pronks Steal of the Draft? Alexei Ramirez, 6th Round...less experienced shortstops were flying off the board in front of him, but Ramirez has 20 HR / 15 SB potential.

4) Reach of the draft?

Overall Reach of the Draft? Mariano Rivera, 1st Round...39 year old closer, coming off a near career year in a keeper league wasn't the right pick for a Those Guys team looking to rebuild.

Pronks Reach of the Draft? Gavin Floyd, 3rd Round...Floyd probably would have been available a round or two later, but I love the pedigree (4th overall pick in 2001) and the 2009 post-May numbers.


Edward Mattingly, The Usual Suspects

1) You mortgaged a lot of your draft and talent in 2009 in order to position yourself to have a stacked draft this season. With all those early draft picks, how do you feel about your team's makeup, and your ability to bring home the gold in 2010?

I like my team's make up. I think a majority of my team's starters come opening day will be around the age of 25. I feel confident that at the end of the year I will have eight very good keepers. In addition to that, I think my team has upside at every position, and if things develop quickly I will be in the thick of it come September. And if that isn't enough, this clip pretty much sums up my response... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuBnlNjZq24

2) The Suspects come into this season with only one 100-RBI player from 2009, and only three players who hit 20 or more home runs. Which of your players do you expect to turn up the voltage and provide the power numbers you'll need to compete?

I think Billy Butler and David Wright will have to be the cornerstones of my offense for me to have a chance to compete. Butler absolutely killed the ball with over 50 doubles last year, and I am looking at some of those to carry a little further over the fence this year. In addition, Wright’s HR production plummeted to 10 after averaging 30 over the previous 4 seasons. That will need to return in the 2010 season. That combined with my four OF (minus Pierre) getting good 25+ 100+ production (when they play) will help set up my team to be at least competitive in power statistics and give me a chance to compete for the title.

3) Steal of the draft?

Vladimir Guerrero. Hands down I think this was the steal of the draft. He is two years removed from a .329-30-125 season. Now, do I think he will do that this year...no. Do I think he’s a risk...yes. But a return to 25 HR with 100+ RBI and over .300 avg in Texas’ loaded offense is very possible. And that kind of upside and eventual production out of the 177 pick in the draft is the definition of a steal.

4) Reach of the draft?

Jason Heyward. I think people might agree with me when I say Heyward was probably the reach of the draft. I think he was probably a round at least from being on people’s radar when I selected him at the end of the second round. When I made the selection, I thought there was a 50/50 chance he would begin with Atlanta to start the season (UPDATE: Heyward was named the starting right fielder). With his ability to take walks and work the count, I thought he would reach his ceiling much faster than most hitting prospects. Also, there is just a gut feeling I get about certain guys. It’s not always right (Evan Longoria, Francisco Liriano, Matt Wieters, Delmon Young), but I honestly might like Heyward more than any of those guys. It might blow up in my face, but with so many high picks, I figured why not reach for a guy I really want?


Joseph Mattingly, Riders of Rohan

1) Last year, you traded your first two picks to make a run at the title, leaving your draft weaker than most other contenders. However, with eleven 3rd basemen kept, you still used one of your first two picks on a 1st/3rd basemen (Chris Davis) ranked outside the top 25 at both positions. If given the opportunity, would you make that pick again or would you try to address another possible weakness on your team?

First off, Davis was well inside the top 25 on pretty much every expert list I saw at both 1B and 3B. Yahoo's O-Rank seemed to be the only list that suggested he deserved to be ignored for a few rounds. Yahoo's composite expert rankings put Chris Davis as both the #1 first baseman and #1 third baseman on the board when I took him. While I might have been able to wait another round or two, the depth at 3B is virtually nonexistent, and I didn't want to be left choosing between Adrian Beltre and Martin Prado for my starter.

I like Davis' upside, and his turnaround in the second half of 2009 gave me all the encouragement I needed to think he'd be able to get back on track. He cut his strikeouts down and jacked up his batting average. I don't regret reaching a little bit for Davis at all.

2) The only trade made during the draft was your trade involving Jimmy Rollins for Jon Lester. What factors weighed in on making this deal? Without Rollins 30-40 steals do you feel like steals may be an area of concern?

Sometime in October, probably during the playoffs, I took a long look at Jon Lester's numbers, and fell in love. While Josh Beckett (deservedly) gets a lot of attention, Lester was quietly dominant in 2009, and has been getting better year by year. I know Rollins was the victim of bad luck last year, and I actually expect him to bounce back in a big way. But with my annual dearth of wins, I saw Lester as a guy who could hopefully get me off on track. The fact that I was able to move up in the draft sealed the deal for me, as I was beginning to see that depth was getting thinner.

Regarding steals, I'm hoping that between Alcides Escobar (Rollins' replacement on my team at shortstop) and either Alex Rios or Alfonso Soriano (whoever ends up spending the most time in my lineup), I'll make up whatever deficiencies I created by moving Rollins.

3) Steal of the draft?

I'm still stunned that Dan Uggla lasted 'til the 6th round. He's a 90-30-90 machine at second base. I also think the 13th round pick of Stephen Drew by the DamKnights could be one of those picks we look back on and say, "Really? He got him then?" My pick of Rios felt like a steal as well. If I'm picking one steal, though, it's Uggla.

4) Reach of the draft?

I generally accept that other people have a plan, so their picks can seem like reaches when in actuality they're just part of a strategy. Of course, my pick of Carlos Marmol is pretty much indefensible. It may go down as one of the dumbest in league history; he's had a rocky spring and has a history of control issues. I didn't exactly get great value on David Aardsma, either.

If I had to call out another owner, I guess I'd say Rich Harden went too early. He's injury-prone, and last year he wasn't even his usual dominant self. Package all that up with a move to Texas, and that seems like a lot of obstacles to overcome.


Michael Mattingly, Cleveland Enforcers

1) After a championship 2008, your 2009 was ravaged by injuries and disappointment. How much of a bounce-back are you expecting out of guys like Cole Hamels, Josh Hamilton, and Carlos Quentin?

I expect Hamels to approach his numbers from 2008, probably closer to 3.50 than 3.00 though. Quentin should be recovered from his various injuries over the past year and a half. I expect about 30 home runs out of him to go with a .280 average. Hamilton is the wild card. I'm expecting 25-30 home runs with a .285 batting average and 110 RBI if he can stay on the field. But that is a big if.

2) After drafting Carlos Gonzalez (who won't start for your team yet) in the first round, you seemed to back into four legitimate closers. Had you known beforehand that you'd be able to get 101 saves from 2009 at such value, would you have still taken Gonzalez in the first round?

I remember not liking any of the pitchers that I thought would go in the next round, and historically the Enforcers do not take closers that early which left me with hitters. Butler would have been a great pick but went the selection before, and no other 1B or C seemed to be worth the slot. I went into the draft not being sold on the heath of Quentin, Hamilton, or Reyes so an extra hitter seemed like a good idea. The team has been built around flexibility allow Gonzalez to be the replacement of Zobrist, Rodriguez, Reyes, Hamilton, Upton, Quentin, and Beckham. And chances are, a couple will miss time (Reyes will already be out at the beginning of the season).

3) Steal of the draft?

Vladimir Guerrero in the 11th round by Those Guys. He was a keeper after the 2008 season and hit .300 with 11 home runs after the break last year. I hear he is projected to hit between Hamilton and Kinsler in Texas. Seems like a good situation. Side note: Does anybody in MLB have a more injury-prone middle of their lineup?

4) Reach of the draft?

Asdrubal Cabrera in the second round to the DamKnights. I get the sense that most people are higher on Cabrera than I am but this seemed early. Especially when Alexei Ramirez went four rounds later.


Patrick Mattingly, Feisty Mosquitoes

1) You went young right away, grabbing Stephen Strasburg in the first round, and picking up Brian Matusz and Wade Davis in the 5th and 6th, respectively. Is it fair to say you're confident in your ability to pick up replacement starters if the youngsters falter, or start in the minors (as Strasburg will)?

This begins with drafting 12th (not exactly 'right away'). Having won the previous year, the chance to repeat is difficult. I had kept 7 hitters, so it had to be a pitcher. I took Strasburg because I believe young hard throwing pitchers have the upper hand when they hit the big leagues initially. They usually falter after there is enough tape, and then have to work there way back up to good pitching stats. I was projecting a mid-season arrival with a good year and a cathedral ceiling, with the possibility that maybe, just maybe, he's the one that the rest of the league never catches up with.

The rest was just hunt & peck, click and take. I almost took an SP with my back to back picks in the 2nd/3rd round, but made the decision to take proven closers and be done with that so I was free to go to starters. But when I got back to drafting, all the ones I was eyeballing were gone. After I took Burnett, I felt 'enough of that...so I started to draft potential, hoping one or two pan out. If not, well, off to the waiver wire (isn't Pettitte still available?). I have had success with replacement starters, but of course, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future success.

2) Similarly, you drafted four middle relievers late in the draft, rather than acquiring any more proven starters. Are you prospecting for saves, or expecting their other numbers to help mitigate any weaknesses you might find in replacement starters?

Well, gee why don't you just give away my secrets...yes, yes, yes.

3) Steal of the draft?

Strasburg

4) Reach of the draft?

Heyward


Mike Plundo, Stewies SexyParties

1) You've got three of the top ten talents in fantasy baseball (Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, and Ryan Braun). How does having those elite players change your draft strategy with regards to younger players?

I tried to draft the best players to help my team make a run at the league title this year. I did not really focus on trying to get young guys that may develop into future keepers. The other thing that I was able to do was get Andrew McCutchen before the draft started, who I figured will fill the role as a young guy who could develop into a great player and be kept for a number of years. That said, if he wasn't ready to play this year, I wouldn't have grabbed him. My draft strategy was definitely to try to compete this year and not 3 years from now.

2) Your lineup looks more balanced than it has in years. How possible do you think it is that you sweep and pick up the maximum 60 points from the hitting categories?

I'd say 0.5% possible, there are a lot of teams with great hitters this year. I need to get as many hitting points as I can though, because in my opinion, my pitching is not as good as I'd hoped this year. And now I may have 3 pitchers start the year on the DL, so it might be a rough year from a pitching stand-point.

3) Steal of the draft?

Since it looks like Jason Heyward is going to be starting out of the box for Atlanta, he may end of being the steal of the draft, especially in a keeper league. I think perhaps my steal of the draft was getting Tim Hudson with the 216th pick (final pick in the 10th round) in the draft. If he's 1/2 as good as they're saying he's looked this spring, he'll be a steal for me since he was basically "no risk" at that point in the draft.

4) Reach of the draft?

You hate to pick a "reach," especially in a keeper league since people could be thinking 2 years down the road with picks and keepers, but I guess that I would say that keeping Brandon Webb as a 7th keeper was probably a reach. ESPN has him ranked #180 overall for this season, I think there were better pitchers available that could have been acquired and kept, for instance I happen to know that Nolasco could have been had very cheap in the days leading up to the draft and I think he's a much better option going into the season.


Mark Sabina, Those Guys

1) In off-season trades, you moved your 3rd and 4th round picks to improve your keepers, acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Josh Johnson. After seeing how your team panned out, how happy are you with those moves?

At the end of last season, I knew I needed pitching badly. I didn't think the draft (especially in the 3rd round) was going to yield any more talented pitchers than I could have traded my picks for. Having the 1st pick definitely helped to get better pitchers than if I were to have had a middle or late round pick, so I figured I would use it to my advantage. Having the 3 J's (Josh, Josh, John Lackey) in my keeper list allowed me to focus on improving other positions before filling out the rest of my starters. The trade that gave me Gonzo was just a good deal all around for me. Like Joe expressed in his blog post, I agree that Gonzo was my top keeper. And for me to only give up my 4th and 8th to get him, he was a steal in my mind.

2) You used the first overall pick to select Mariano Rivera, but then spent most of the rest of the draft targeting younger players, including Pedro Alvarez and Mike Stanton who may not break spring training with their teams. What was the strategy behind those combination of moves?

Since I had Papelbon on my roster, I knew I only needed 1 more ace reliever and I would be somewhat good on that front, and who better to fill that ace reliever role than Rivera? Taking him with my first pick allowed me to focus on filling the rest of my roster out. Although age-wise Rivera should be way past his prime, you wouldn't be able to tell that from looking at his numbers. Seeing how everyone seemed to be focusing on pitching early in the draft, even if I had my 2nd round pick, I don't think he would have fallen to me. For my roster, and for my draft plan, Rivera was the best pick out there for me.

3) Steal of the draft?

Lilly, definitely. Sure his injury might have turned people off to him, but I don't think he should have fallen to the 10th. Once my b2b2b picks came around and he was still on the board, I knew he would be one of the three. I believe I got him in the 6th last year, and his numbers at the end of the season showed he should have been a 4th or even mid-late 3rd rounder. Sure he's getting older, but his numbers these past few seasons show he's not losing much on his pitches.

4) Reach of the draft?

Mike Stanton was my reach of the draft solely on the reason that he may not even move up to the majors until the end of the season. Pair him with Alvarez and that's 2 roster spots that are useless until the at least the middle of the season. If players start to go down (thank god I don't have Chipper this season) it will make things a little more difficult. But of course those 2 picks weren't for this season. Hopefully Stanton's minor league numbers and Alvarez's minor (or major?) league numbers at the end of the season will prove why they should be kept.

2010 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Projected Standings

The culmination of our Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League discussion is, of course, the league projections. Here's how we come up with the projections:

• We determine logical starting lineups for each team, mostly based on draft order, with an occasional switch for players with limited projected statistics, usually youngsters with undetermined playing time.
• We use the normal starting lineup of 1 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS, 3 OF, and 1 Util. For pitchers, we use six SPs and three RPs.
• Projected statistics are gathered from an Internet source (ESPN.com this year), and recorded for each team. Starting pitchers' ERAs and WHIPs are adjusted to be twice as influential on team ERA and WHIP as the relievers' statistics. Batting averages are weighed evenly.
• All of this information is compiled together to get totals for each team, and then sorted into standings. Rotisserie points are assigned, and the standings are complete.
  

2010 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League Projected Standings

A couple of things to note. First, ESPN's projections generally seemed to under-value young players. Additionally, they appeared to be fairly conservative with regards to ERA and WHIP, only declaring a few players to maintain WHIPs under 1.20. Finally, this obviously only takes into account project-able performances. Oftentimes, leagues are won as a result of virtually unpredictable performances, such as Javier Vazquez's insane second half in 2009, or Keith Ginter's amazing final week of the 2004 season.

Best of luck to all teams, and I look forward to an exciting and active season.

2010 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Draft Analysis

Relax, I'm not going to go through every pick. I'm just going to give a general feel, offer my thoughts on who each team's best and worst picks were, and give a grade for the whole draft. It'll be quick and fairly painless.

The draft can be viewed here.

#1 - Those Guys
They moved their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks in trades, so depth was going to be an obvious concern. Even still, they made smart picks with what they had, and there's potential for greatness down the road.

• Best Pick - Ted Lilly (9.12). Possibly the best pick of the whole draft.
• Worst Pick - Mariano Rivera (1.1). With no pick for four rounds, you'd have liked to see Those Guys grab someone with more upside, more long-term potential.
• Draft Grade: B-
  

#2 - Dunedain Rangers
The Roy Halladay/Dan Haren for Brandon Webb trade left the Rangers with two extra high draft picks, allowing them to trade their third round pick to re-acquire Haren. The Rangers grabbed several prospects, but in having only seven pitchers, they'll have a tough time competing at all this season without changes.

• Best Pick - Jason Kubel (6.2). He's young, and doesn't have to improve to be worth his slot.
  
• Worst Pick - Jay Bruce (1.11). His upside doesn't seem to be much higher than guys like Alfonso Soriano or Kubel or Raul Ibanez, all of whom went at least two rounds later.
  
• Draft Grade: B
  

#3 - The Usual Suspects
After clearing out talent and draft picks from 2009, the Suspects had a stacked draft this season. They were able to pile on talent, but I wonder if they might not have been better off playing it a little safer and grabbing a guy like Dan Uggla or Jose Lopez to man second base, rather than counting on Rickie Weeks' first healthy season...ever.

• Best Pick - Billy Butler (1.3) or Joakim Soria (2.1). Sometimes the easy picks are the best ones.
  
• Worst Pick - Carlos Beltran (4.8) AND Juan Pierre (4.9). Either one is a good pick. But drafting both seemed out of place with solid closers and Uggla & Lopez still on the board.
  
• Draft Grade: A-
  

#4 - Cleveland Enforcers
The Enforcers were the victims of some horrible luck in 2009, so they've got keepers with high upside, but still have a solid draft. They used their favorable draft picks to grab several high-end pitching prospects, and while the team will still live or die with its outfield, they're in solid shape going forward.

• Best Pick - Brian Fuentes (6.4). Despite his unexceptional peripherals in 2009, Fuentes racked up saves. I was surprised he lasted that long.
  
• Worst Pick - Rich Harden (2.4). At 28, with several injuries under his belt and an unimpressive 2009, I felt like he would've lasted longer.
  
• Draft Grade: B
  

#5 - DamKnights of Columbus
Tragedy struck Columbus when it was reported that Joe Nathan had a torn tendon in his pitching elbow and would miss the 2010 season. It happened mid-draft, after the Knights had already passed on several upper-tier closers. Still, their draft yielded several exciting young players to go with keepers who hit about .320 last year.

• Best Pick - Stephen Drew (13.5). Somehow, a consensus top 8 shortstop lasted until the second-to-last round of the draft.
  
• Worst Pick - James Loney (9.5). A little late to call it the "worst" pick, but I feel like Loney's numbers are easily replaceable. We should've all listened when the "experts" said he'll never hit 20 HR in a season.
  
• Draft Grade: A-
  

#6 - Mercer AutoWreckers
The AutoWreckers had a solid but unexciting draft. I don't see too much potential for guys to outperform expectations, which means another middle-of-the-pack finish seems in order.

• Best Pick - Hunter Pence (1.6). The former Mosquito will look dashing in AutoWrecker Blue.
  
• Worst Pick - Rick Porcello (8.1). I worry about a guy who doesn't strike anybody out.
  
• Draft Grade: B-

#7 - Vandelay Industries
As with most seasons, Vandelay spent much of the draft targeting high upside starting pitchers, sprinkling in hitters for flavor. This year, however, they used one of their keeper SPs (Jon Lester) to acquire Jimmy Rollins, solidifying their offense with perhaps the perfect piece to send them on a championship run.

• Best Pick - Edwin Jackson (9.7). A repeat of 2009 and a lot of people are going to look foolish for passing on him.
  
• Worst Pick - Manny Ramirez (1.7). Certainly the possibility of a great season is still there, but he's had trouble putting together a whole season of elite performance for a while now.
  
• Draft Grade: B

#8 - Stewies SexyParties
The SexyParties are always competitive because they've got three elite keepers in Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, and Ryan Braun. Their draft is always a matter of trying to surround those guys with complementary pieces, and this year Stewie was pretty successful. Most of their picks were good value, and while there's not much upside, the Sexies don't need all that much upside.

• Best Pick - Roy Oswalt (3.8). I just can't see him not bouncing back and having another solid season in 2010.
  
• Worst Pick - Daisuke Matsuzaka (6.8). There were more interesting guys still on the board, and Daisuke seemed to have been playing with fire for a while before last year's implosion.
  
• Draft Grade: B
  

#9 - Huber Heights Heroes
The recently renamed Heroes are a team that I have to judge slightly differently based on their unique, batting-average-punting strategy. Luckily, the strategy had a much greater impact on last year's draft than this year's. The Heroes' pitching is still suspect, but their hitting should keep them in the race most of the season.

• Best Pick - Dan Uggla (6.3). Uggla would've been a great fit for a lot of teams. I'm amazed he lasted as long as he did.
• Worst Pick - Garrett Jones (9.9). Jones is a fine player, but the Heroes needed speed from their last outfield spot. They grabbed Dexter Fowler in the twelfth who will likely start, but that means that they picked up Jones before him to be a bench player.
  
• Draft Grade: B-
  

#10 - Akron Pronks
After finishing with the bronze medal for the third straight season, you'd have thought the Pronks might take more chances on risky players to see if they could catch lightning in a bottle and win a title. But they ended up just taking more solid guys, and they look like they'll be in the mix again, but may unfortunately come up short one more time.

• Best Pick - Alexei Ramirez (6.10). It was a pretty late spot to grab your starting shortstop, but the Pronks did very well, grabbing a guy with impressive talent and, like most of their players, a power/speed combo.
  
• Worst Pick - Nate McLouth (5.10). Not a particuarly bad pick, per se, but I think there were better fits out there at this point in the draft. Uggla, for starters.
  
• Draft Grade: A-
  

#11 - Riders of Rohan
The Riders were without their own 1st and 2nd round picks, but through offseason trades acquired additional 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks. They were able to generate depth, but there's an obvious drop off in talent after the eight keepers. Their bullpen especially is full of questions.

• Best Pick - Alex Rios (6.11). If you look at 2009 as anomalous (and you should), Rios is a .290 hitter with power and speed.
  
• Worst Pick - Carlos Marmol (2.6). A failed attempt to trade up and acquire Joakim Soria left the Riders scrambling for saves. But they didn't really get good value with any of their closer picks.
  
• Draft Grade: B-
  

#12 - Feisty Mosquitoes
The champion drafts last, the only negative about grabbing a title. The Mosquitoes took their draft position as an impetus to take chances on young starters and worry about the rest of their pitching staff later. When you keep seven hitters, though, you're looking at pitchers anyways. And with the innate risk of any pitcher, at least with prospects you're getting a chance at gold.

• Best Pick - Raul Ibanez (5.12). He's got the potential to be just as good as several first round picks (Bruce, Manny, Pena). Great value.
  
• Worst Pick - A.J. Burnett (4.12). Initially, my thinking was that Burnett is on a good team and has talent, so what's not to like? But he was in the same situation last year, and he didn't do much with it.
  
• Draft Grade: B+
  

I would be remiss if I didn't mention how even I felt that all of the drafts were. I don't think any team had a particularly excellent or a particularly terrible draft. This speaks volumes to the growth of our league and its owners, and it makes me excited for how competitive this league could be in two or three years. I can see any of these teams winning the title in 2015...

...except Akron. They'll be in third.

New NFL Overtime Rules

So it looks like the NFL will be adopting a change to the playoff overtime rules. Owners voted this week to adopt the following changes:

If the team that wins the coin toss scores a field goal on their opening possession, the opposing team will have one possession to tie or win the game. If the team receiving the ball second also scores a field goal, the game will go into a sudden death format, where the first team to score next will win.

If the team that wins the coin toss scores a touchdown on their opening possession, they will win the game.

If the team that wins the coin toss does not score on their opening possession, the game will go into a sudden death format, where the first team to score next will win.

Got it? It's actually not all that complicated, despite Sean Payton's whining.

In fact, it sounds like there are a decent number of people who really dislike this rule change. There are also a lot of people who think it's about time. I fall into neither category.

I never really thought that a team that went to overtime and got beat on the first possession had much to gripe about. When you go to overtime, that means that you didn't play well enough during regulation to win the game. You have 60 minutes of regulation to prove you're the superior team. When you go to overtime, you're getting extra time to make a play because fans generally don't like ties. But getting an overtime possession isn't your "right."

By the same token, I don't have a problem with extending football games a little bit, if they reach overtime. It will create more dramatic, do-or-die situations at the end of a couple of games, and I'm alright with that.

I didn't need the overtime rules to be changed, but I'm fine with the fact that they were.

Now, college football overtime rules are just a bastardization of football, and should be abolished.