Monday, March 29, 2010

2010 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Projected Standings

The culmination of our Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League discussion is, of course, the league projections. Here's how we come up with the projections:
  • We determine logical starting lineups for each team, mostly based on draft order, with an occasional switch for players with limited projected statistics, usually youngsters with undetermined playing time.
  • We use the normal starting lineup of 1 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS, 3 OF, and 1 Util. For pitchers, we use six SPs and three RPs.
  • Projected statistics are gathered from an Internet source (ESPN.com this year), and recorded for each team. Starting pitchers' ERAs and WHIPs are adjusted to be twice as influential on team ERA and WHIP as the relievers' statistics. Batting averages are weighed evenly.
  • All of this information is compiled together to get totals for each team, and then sorted into standings. Rotisserie points are assigned, and the standings are complete.
2010 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League Projected Standings

A couple of things to note. First, ESPN's projections generally seemed to under-value young players. Additionally, they appeared to be fairly conservative with regards to ERA and WHIP, only declaring a few players to maintain WHIPs under 1.20. Finally, this obviously only takes into account project-able performances. Oftentimes, leagues are won as a result of virtually unpredictable performances, such as Javier Vazquez's insane second half in 2009, or Keith Ginter's amazing final week of the 2004 season.

Best of luck to all teams, and I look forward to an exciting and active season.

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