Walt Disney World Trip: Day 2 (Saturday)

(With regards to rides, I'm going to use the same strategy that Plundo did, waiting until the end of the post to rate the rides, and using a 5-star system).

Friday night was nice, but the reason you go to Disney World is to ride rides (or at least, that's the reason I go to Disney World). And when you want a lot of rides, there's no better place than the Magic Kingdom. Kevin slept until about 11:00, so we didn't start our day until around 11:30.

The sit-down restaurant at Sarasota Springs is called the Turf Club Bar & Grill. I had a good burger (not a Goodburger), and Kevin and my mom both got the yellowfin tuna per our waiter's recommendation. They seemed to enjoy it, and I enjoyed mine, so we started our day's activities on the right foot. We hopped on a bus to the park and arrived in ten minutes or so.





When we arrived, we realized that there was a parade scheduled to come through the park shortly, and we weren't really looking to watch it, so we hopped on the Walt Disney World Railroad, which carries passengers to a couple stops around the park. We got off at Frontierland, and picked up Fast Passes for Splash Mountain. If you're unfamiliar, a Fast Pass is essentially an appointment for the ride. You can pick it up at any time during the day (only one at a time, though), and you'll be given a window later in the day during which you can redeem the pass and ride with virtually no line. It's a nice feature, taking some of the waiting time out of your theme park visit.

Armed with Fast Passes for Splash Mountain in 2 hours, we decided to check out a couple other rides. We hit the Mad Tea Party, Buzz Lightyear's Space Ranger Spin, and the Tomorrowland Transit Authority. We stopped off for ice cream and headed back to ride Splash Mountain (which I hadn't ridden in our trip last year, so it was a new and exciting experience).

Sufficiently happy (and a little soaked), we basically wandered the park for the rest of the day, hopping on whatever struck our fancy: Pirates of the Carribean, It's a Small World, and Peter Pan's Flight. Tired and pleased, we grabbed a bus back to our resort, and went back to the Turf Club for dinner. Our meals were good, but the real highlight was dessert. They cook some chocolate cake with chocolate from Madagascar, then top it with vanilla ice cream and some raspberry sauce. It was delicious.

Back to the room, I read more of Moneyball and got to bed early for Sunday, which would be our first "park-hopper" day.

Ride Reviews

Walt Disney World Railroad (2/5) - It's a railroad, fairly straightforward, and with surprisingly vanilla scenery. I only gave it two stars because it's functional, and it did what we wanted it to do, which was drive us to Frontierland.

Mad Tea Party (4/5) - It's not at all the kind of ride that you couldn't see at a standard amusement park, but it was a lot of fun. For those of you who've played Rollercoaster Tycoon, think Scrambled Eggs. There's a disc in the middle of each cup that you can spin manually to adjust your level of spinning; Kevin and I went pretty nuts with it.

Buzz Lightyear's Space Ranger Spin (4/5) - Plundo was right about this being sort of an outdated version of the new Toy Story ride at Hollywood Studios, but the Space Ranger Spin has more of a story to your shooting, rather than the shooting gallery setup in the Toy Story ride. I like being on a mission, what can I say?

Tomorrowland Transit Authority (3/5) - It's a simple transportation ride (as its name would indicate), but for whatever reason, I like it. It's relaxing, it's never in direct sunlight, and it gives you a tour of Tomorrowland.

Splash Mountain (5/5) - I loved the music and the atmosphere of the ride, and the drops are fun. This is my mom's favorite ride at the Magic Kingdom, and when we rode into "Brer Rabbit's Laughin' Place" at the end of the ride, they both laughed loudly and intentionally, which made the ride even more fun. It's also got comfortable seats, something that's particularly valuable for such a giant of a man as myself.

Pirates of the Carribean (3/5) - I like water rides, so Pirates gets a bump there, but really it's not a very exciting or interesting ride. It's essentially a slow river ride through a pirate town. They added a ship and a fort with some cannon fire, but in my opinion, not enough, and not enough explosions and damage on either side. I guess it's supposed to be a gentle ride and they have to maintain that, but I'd like a little more excitement. The Jack Sparrow singing at the end of the ride is pretty neat, though, and it gets the song in your head.

It's a Small World (2/5) - Another first-time ride for me, there was no line and I felt like I ought to do it at least once since it might be the most famous ride in Disney World. It was okay, not as good as some people have told me, but also not as bad as some other people have told me. It was another boat ride as well, so that was alright.

Peter Pan's Flight (2/5) - The line was 30 minutes, but my mom likes the ride, so we hopped in and waited. I remembered not liking the ride at all last year, so I wasn't expecting much, and the ride met expectations. I tried to like it more than last time, though, and that seemed to work, because last year I'd have given it a 1/5.

Next up: A split Sunday between Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios

Who Should You Keep?

We here at Joe and Joe Sports have done some market research, and we've come to find that a lot of our traffic here arrives as a result of Google searches to determine if particular players are keepers, or which player among a list should be kept. As good as we are at reading minds, we can't be certain that we'll address your question unless you ASK! So if you've got a tough decision on your hands with regards to a keeper league (or any other league, really), don't hesitate to ask!

You can contact us anytime at joe.joe.sports@gmail.com. We'll guarantee a response via email, and if we like your question, we'll post it on the blog, along with our response!

Is A.J. Burnett A Keeper?

A.J. Burnett had his best major-league season in 2008, posting career highs in wins (18), starts (34), innings pitched (221.1), and strikeouts (231). While he didn't even remotely have the most surprising career year in the American League (that distinction goes far and away to Cliff Lee), he rebounded after a tough first half to dramatically improve his stock in an opt-out year. He did in fact opt out, and made himself appealing enough that the New York Yankees signed him to a five-year, $82.5 million contract.

And that's great. But the really important question here is, should you invest in him long term, and declare him a keeper?

Well, first things first. Burnett's got more than enough talent to look at him as a potential keeper. He was a big time prospect coming up in the Marlins' organization, and tossed a no-hitter in 2001. While he's endured injury difficulties on and off since then (he's only had 30 starts twice in his 10-year career), he's pitched well when he's been healthy. Burnett sports a 3.81 career ERA and a K/9IP of 8.3. He's always walked too many batters, but has been able to clean it up with overpowering stuff.

Last year, Burnett certainly pitched like a keeper, leading the AL in strikeouts and winning 18 games for the 4th-place Blue Jays. His 4.07 ERA wasn't great, but he had an ERA under 3.00 after the all-star break, and helped a lot of fantasy teams in the stretch run. Now he heads to the Yankees, who I have to think will win more than Toronto's 86 from last year. Does all of this add up to Burnett being a keeper?

I've teetered both ways, but in the end, I've got to say no. That's not to say that I couldn't see a weaker team keeping Burnett, or a strong team without much depth taking a chance on him. But Burnett's got those two question marks (the walks and the health) that make me worry about his ability to reliably contribute to a fantasy team. Sure, Burnett could be a nice pitcher for you, but he could also take a step backwards, or miss half of his starts with another injury.

I've always been a fan of A.J. Burnett (though obviously I'm no fan of the Yankees), and I'd like him to succeed. But guys who generate a lot of strikeouts and walks worry me, and that's exactly what Burnett is. Look at him as a first or second round pick, rather than a keeper, if you can help it.

2009 projection: 15-10, 3.90 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 190 Ks

Walt Disney World Trip: Day 1 (Friday)

As many of you know, I went to Disney World last weekend, and as per Plundo's suggestion and example, I'll give you a run down of how the trip was (along with the occasional complementary picture and relevant Wikipedia links). I took the trip with my mom and my youngest brother, Kevin.

For starters, I was sick. I got sick at the beginning of last week, and just got sicker as the week went on. Friday morning, the day of our flight, I was sick as a dog, and had been swigging Dayquil and Nyquil to try to bust up the cold before the trip. No such luck. I ended up blowing my nose at least 100 times over the course of the trip, but I was able to shut out most of the sickness with the distraction of the parks.

We left the house around 9:30 to catch our 12:00 flight out of Dulles. We were able to get through security without too much of a wait. Our flight was fully booked, but without any of the hullabaloo that Plundo had to endure, and the rest of the transportation went off without a hitch. During this trip, I spent most of my downtime and flight time reading, starting with Moneyball. If you're unfamiliar with Moneyball, it's a non-fiction book that reports on how the Oakland A's were able to field a highly competitive team despite having a small payroll and a lack of big bopper power hitters. It's honestly one of the most exciting and interesting books I've ever read, and I'd recommend it to any reasonably intelligent sports fan.


When we arrived in Orlando, we were all pretty hungry, so we got a table at the airport Chili's. I don't know if I've ever had their fajitas before, but they were better than I expected. The steak was very flavorful, and it was just enough food that I would be sated until dinner time.

We stayed at the Saratoga Springs resort, which is a Disney resort. There are several advantages of this, and the first one starts when you step out of the airport. Disney has a Magical Express service that allows you to ride one of their private buses from the airport directly to your resort. After checking in, we were offered a cart ride to the front of our building (which of course we accepted), and we headed up to the room.

The Saratoga Springs rooms are suites with a bedroom or bedrooms, as well as a kitchen and a common area. The resort has a small grocery on the property, and we went there to pick up some essentials (most importantly an Entenmann's raspberry danish). We put the groceries away, and then decided to head to Epcot (each Disney resort offers free bus rides to all of their parks, another perk of stayin at a Disney resort).

Kevin's big thing this trip (although it would slip away fairly quickly) was that he wanted to eat at as many of the different countries at Epcot as possible. This started on Friday night, when we went to the Japanese portion of Epcot. We ate at a restaurant called Teppan Edo, which is essentially a Benihana. The food was very good; they offered three sauces, each of which was different and tasty. I got New York strip sirloin steak, but everyone's food looked good (even the vegitarian selection, which was somewhat surprising). Additionally, I got a drink called a "ninja," a combination of sake and plum wine. I'm not normally a wine fan, but this was good enough that I got two.



We walked around Epcot a little more after dinner, but it was surprisingly crowded, and we were all fairly tired after a travel day, so we decided to head back. At the hotel, I grabbed a slice of danish and read a chapter of Moneyball before hitting the hay.

Next up: Saturday at The Magic Kingdom.

Super Bowl 2009: Why the Steelers Will Win

"Because they're so much better, duh." I've just given you the essence of the average Pittsburgh Steelers fan's argument as to why the Steelers will win the Super Bowl. Daunting, huh? Towering logic, right? Well, as much as I like to bash Steeler fans (and oh Jesus how I love it), there's actually a little bit of validity to the simplistic argument. The Steelers were 12-4, with their only losses coming against the Eagles, Giants, Colts, and Titans, all playoff teams. The Cardinals were 9-7 and lost four of six heading into the playoffs. But when you're a Super Bowl team, you beat some decent competition to get there, so you can't shrug off the Cardinals' credentials any more.

So why will the Steelers win, then? There are a couple of crucial reasons, most of them related to the Steelers' vaunted, #1 rated defense. They boast the best pass defense in football, which is complemented by the NFL's second-best rush defense (behind the Vikings). They gave up the fewest yards per game in the league, besting the #2 Ravens by over twenty yards a game. They gave up under 14 points per game, also best in the league. Their defense has stifled some of the best rushing and passing attacks in football, and has carried them to the Super Bowl for the second time in four years.

But while this Pittsburgh defense is essentially the same as the 2005 championship squad, the offense has changed dramatically, some might say for the better (some = me). Santonio Holmes compares favorably to Antwaan Randle El (the 2005 team's second leading wide receiver). Heath Miller is still on the team and has become more comfortable in the offense. Willie Parker has taken the reins from Jerome Bettis and become a legitimate #1 RB. But most importantly, Ben Roethlisberger has become more than just a confident game-managing quarterback. He's able to avoid the rush and make plays on the run; as I'm sure you've seen in various television graphics through the years, Big Ben actually boasts a higher passer rating from outside the pocket than from inside it.

Arizona's had a nice run, but they haven't faced a defense anywhere near as staunch as Pittsburgh's. When the dust settles, those jerks from western Pennsylvania will have another title, and I'll have another reason to dislike them.

NBA Quick Hits: January 2009

It may be cold outside, but the NBA is red hot right now. With four elite teams, a log jam in the Western Conference and a genuine superstar on nearly every team, there is alot to discuss , so here is a few things you should know:

After being the Joe and Joe Sports preseason darlings and then proceeding to go 13-20, the Philadelphia 76ers have gotten it together. Before Monday's loss to Dallas , Philly had won 7 in a row and are currently sitting at 20-21, good enough for second place in the Atlantic division and the seventh seed in the East. With Elton Brand scheduled to return soon and an upcoming seven game home stand, the Sixers are poised to go on a run.

Brandon Roy is shaping up to be his generation's Paul Pierce. A scorer who is willing to do a little bit of everything else, Roy is leading a scrappy Portland squad to their first season over .500 since 2002-2003. Sure they will get bounced in the first round of the playoffs, but the Blazers are headed in the right direction.

If one of our readers happens to be the guy that engraves the "Comeback Player of the Year Award", you can save some time in May and just carve "Nene" into the trophy now. (Joe and Joe full disclosure: I just looked and the NBA Comeback Player of the Year award only existed between 1980-1986, but I had already typed the above, soooo... anyway, Nene is having a nice year after recovering from testicular cancer.)

Yep, I was completely wrong about O.J. Mayo.

I was going to argue that if Yao can stay healthy, the Rockets have to be considered one of the favorites in the West because of their defense, but EVERYBODY is playing D out west. The Nuggets, Mavs, Lakers, Rockets, Hornets and Suns (???) are all in the top half of NBA teams as far as opponents field goal percentage goes.

Toronto's chances of resigning Chris Bosh in 2010 are now at 0.00001%. The margin of error on that prediction is +/- 0.00001%.

The Cavs are a completely different team this year with the addition of Mo Williams and Lebron's improvement after spending the summer with team USA. Losing Zydrunas Ilgauskas for several weeks would have submarined Cleveland last season, but this year's squad just keeps rolling. If Z and Delonte West can return to full strength, the Cavs have the deepest squad in the NBA and have to be considered the favorite in the East.

Mock Draft Season

'Tis the season for mock drafts a-plenty. Fantasy baseball is fast approaching, and it's time to start getting a sense for where guys are getting drafted. While mock drafts won't tell you for sure where a guy will go in your draft, they can give you an idea of a window during which he might go.

When I do mock drafts, I try not to take any guys from my keeper fantasy team, because those are the players I want to learn about the most. This draft, however, I ended up taking a couple from my team. My first pick, Jimmy Rollins, was an auto-selection, as I was a few minutes late to the draft. Then, much later, I ended up taking Cameron Maybin, mostly because I didn't know who to take and I panicked. And yes, my team's name is Thunderchicken. It was assigned to me randomly, and I've embraced it as my own.

Below is the link for the mock draft in its entirety. Feel free to offer any opinions you've got on how things went down. Personally, I would've definitely taken Ryan Braun over Rollins at my first pick.

Mock Draft #1

How Many Countries Do You Know?

http://andys.org.uk/countryquiz/

To be fair, this quiz doesn't check your knowledge of every country, only those that are U.N. member nations (so Housingtonia won't come up on the list). But it's a fun little exercise to see how comfortable you are in naming countries. I'll be honest, I missed some easy ones. But I got 96 of the 192 countries, and feel pretty decent about that performance. That's what you get from playing world conquest video games, friends.

Pizza Hut

I bashed Pizza Hut in the past for not having coupons. Only 10 short months later, here's a Pizza Hut coupon, 20% off your first online order. They've got some new wings that are pretty tasty, I recommend the garlic parmesan. And the pizza's solid.

Click here for the coupon. My guess is you probably can't double up the coupons, so it won't be a barn-burner of a deal, but hey, pizza is good.

Is Garrett Atkins A Keeper?

In 2006, Garret Atkins had one of the best second half performances in recent MLB memory. He hit .354 with 18 HR, 62 RBI, and an OPS of 1.062. In 2007, he hit .349 after the all-star break, making many of us think that he might be one of those perennial second-half players that we could elect not to draft, trade for in June, and reap the benefits.

Hopefully, you didn't do that in 2008. He hit just .259 with 7 HRs after the break this past season, and generally disappointed fantasy owners after a very solid first half. The question for 2009 is, can Atkins work out the kinks and just be a good hitter all season long? The answer? Not likely.

Over the past three years, Atkins has declined in virtually every statistical category each year. He dropped from 29 to 25 to 21 HRs, and 120 to 111 to 99 RBI. His walks have gone down and his strikeouts have gone up. His batting average has gone from .329 to .301 to .286. All of this indicates that he's not getting more comfortable as he gets more at-bats in the majors, and it's possible he's getting worse.

I still believe that Atkins is a solid player with good hitting instincts and enough pop to be a fantasy factor. And if everything was the same as last year, I'd probably still look at him as a keeper. But the day that Matt Holliday was traded to Oakland was the day that Garrett Atkins became a non-keeper. The Rockies' best hitters now are Atkins, an aging Todd Helton (hi...) and Brad Hawpe, a nice player but just a roster-filler in fantasy baseball.

If I thought that Carlos Gonzalez, Ian Stewart, and Troy Tulowitzki were going to take big strides forward this season (or in the case of Tulowitzki, just stop taking steps backwards), I might consider keeping Atkins. But I just don't see where he can get 110 RBIs in 2009 out of this Rockies lineup.

2009 projections: .290, 85 R, 20 HR, 85 RBI

I Don't Need A Playoff Anymore

Don't misunderstand me, I still loathe the BCS system. It's completely dishonest and a total farce; it's a fallacy that it can even create a valid national championship game, let alone crown a champion. But I'm done demanding a college football playoff, for two reasons.

1. I don't care about college football. Anyone who listened to our radio show from last week (which featured mostly NFL discussion) knows that we were broadcasting right in the middle of the BCS National Championship game, and that didn't bother us one bit. Like most faux fans, I'm excited when my alma mater (Penn State) does well, and I have a sufficient level of fatalism when talking about them (as in, I told everyone that USC was going to crush the Nittany Lions in the Rose Bowl). But when it comes to tracking the season-long progress of various teams, I don't do it. And when it comes to watching the championship game, I don't do it unless I care about one of the teams, which we've already established is pretty rare. The last one I watched was that barn-burner between USC and Texas, which might be the best college football game I've ever seen. So they've got that going for them. But really, I'm just not that interested in the whole scene.


2. The playoff would still be wrong. There are a lot of ways you could set up a playoff in college football: anywhere from four to sixteen teams would work, bye weeks could be integrated (to keep the regular season meaningful), etc etc. But the reality is that, whatever system gets put into place will have its flaws. How will it reward conference champions? Will there be sufficient at-large bids to ensure that the very best teams are in the mix? How will the system confound potential problems with teams of identical records, or teams who play particularly weak or strong schedules? Will computers get involved? There are so many questions, and not a lot of reasonable answers. A playoff would be better, but it wouldn't be a final solution, because the determination of who gets into the playoff would still be based on opinion, a natural flaw of the college systems.
   

There are other issues that are often cited when explaining why a playoff system would be bad for college football, and I'm sure you've heard many of them:

• Missing class time. There's always an argument that missing class time in late December/early January is a detriment to student-athletes. Please feel free to check the University of Maryland's academic calendar (and remember that only dummies take class for the brief Winter Term). Most students aren't going to miss much/any class time.


• De-valuing the regular season. This might be true on a rare occasion. However, how can you say that de-valuing the regular season is a concern when we've had multiple teams in recent years go undefeated during the regular season, but have no chance at the national title? Also, does the NFL, which has a playoff system, suffer from a meaningless end-of-season?


• The eventual demise of the bowl system. This argument actually holds some water for me. Certainly, if we start taking the best eight to sixteen teams out of the regular bowl system, we're going to reduce the luster of the biggest bowls. Additionally, the single postseason game for each team in the current system allows alumni and fans to make a single, special trip to the bowl site for the festivities and the game. Multiple playoff games would likely result in corporate purchases and outrageously priced secondhand tickets for fans, which hasn't ever been the nature of college football.
  

The reality is this. While I'd probably prefer a playoff system as a casual fan, I am just that: a casual fan. For people who really love college football, the playoff system may deprive them of the ability to see their favorite team in their final game of the season (often a much stronger attachment than you'll find in professional teams' fans). The old system, without any mockery of a national championship game, gives each team's fans a decent chance to catch the game. You also keep the ticket prices low enough (at least the student tickets), and have enough lead time before the games to allow students to make travel plans and buy tickets, keeping the classic college football atmosphere.

When you think about it, some of the resistance of college football against a playoff system might be in deference to its most rabid fans, and in the interest of maintaining the things about college football that it's most staunch supporters love. I can't be too mad about that.

The BCS is still a joke, though. The national championship game that the purport to create is an absolute farce. Do you know how I know that? Because after the game, there are still lots of questions as to who the best team in the country is. You ever hear that after the Super Bowl or World Series? No sir. Personally, I'd rather have no championship game at all than a championship game that doesn't give me a feeling of having declared a champion.

Happy Wildcard Weekend! (part 2)

I was going to call it "part deux," but then I remembered I'm not a tool.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Miami Dolphins (11-5)

Full disclosure here, I absolutely hate the Ravens. Most of it is probably because Chip likes them so much, but some of it comes from a natural disdain for a foreign invader of the Washington Redskins' territory. "You don't belong here," "This seat's taken," that sort of thing, except less racist.

Anyways, to the game. Baltimore's got a rookie quarterback and a fantastic defense. Miami's got an experienced, efficient quarterback and a solid, if unspectacular, defense. Usually my picks lean heavily on quarterbacks and defenses, so this is a tight call. Miami just seems to belong here less, after the debacle last season. I'm rooting like crazy for the Dolphins, but my heart tells me to prepare for the worst.

Prediction: Ravens 23, Dolphins 17

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) at Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

One game features one of my least favorite teams, the other features my second favorite squad in the Vikings. It's virtually impossible for me to look at this game objectively, but I'll try to at least give some valid points. The Eagles' defense has been ridiculous, leading the NFC in points allowed, total yards allowed, and passing yards allowed. And Donovan McNabb seems to be hitting stride at the right time of year, not an altogether uncommon occurrence.

The Vikings are one of the better home teams at 6-2, their only home losses coming against the two playoff losers from Saturday, Indianapolis and Atlanta. Adrian Peterson is a monster, but he can't win the game alone, and I don't see him getting help anywhere else on this offense. The defense is strong against the run, which the Eagles do like twice a game. Even though I hate going with the crowds, I can't seem to talk myself out of this one.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Vikings 13

Playoff predictions to date (winners only): 1-1

Happy Wildcard Weekend!

It's not Christmas or Thanksgiving, but wildcard weekend in the NFL is cause for celebration. We've got four compelling matchups, and despite what anyone says, none of these games is a gimme. The games today:

Atlanta Falcons (11-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-7)

What a difference a year makes. This time last year, everyone was talking about what a slimeball Bobby Petrino was for walking out on this team, about how Michael Vick's dogfighting conviction decimated this team, and about how it would take years for the Falcons to be respectable again. However, if you go back into the Joe and Joe Sports radio vault, you'll hear me predict the Atlanta Falcons for a 9-7 record and the NFC South division title. And, you'll remember that I recommended that Atlanta start Matt Ryan immediately, while a certain colleague of mine who shall remain nameless (but not unlinked) declared that Ryan should be kept on the bench at least a year. While Ryan didn't lead the Falcons to the division crown, they won 11 games and proved me sort of right.

Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals finally won the division that everyone has been saying is theirs for the taking, albeit with an aging Kurt Warner at quarterback and a modest 9-7 record. But there's no doubt that Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are the best WR tandem in football today, and maybe ever. If there's any team in these playoffs that could surprise everyone and score 40 points a game, it's these Cardinals.

My pick: Arizona

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at San Diego Chargers (8-8)

This is a meeting of two teams on a serious roll. Peyton Manning and the Colts just wrapped up his third MVP trophy, and he's looked like championship caliber Manning for a couple of months now. While Marvin Harrison has slid a bit, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dominic Rhodes have picked up the offensive slack, and this offense is as dangerous as ever. And as long as Bob Sanders can stay healthy, the defense will be solid.

Meanwhile, San Diego won four straight games it had to win to stay alive for a playoff berth, including a showdown in the last week of the season that was essentially its own postseason game. Now, they get to play the Colts (who they beat last year in the playoffs) on their own turf. Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson are nicked up, but you'd better believe they'll be playing in this game. This one could be 42-38 or 13-10. I'm jazzed.

My pick: Indianapolis

Sure, the Redskins Blew It, But...

...there's an NFL team this year that blew it even bigger. I'll lay out the details, and you can decide for yourself if I'm right, or if I'm just blowing smoke.

The Washington Redskins were 5-1 after back-to-back NFC East victories over Dallas and Philadelphia, and the entire city was buzzing with talk of the playoffs, and more. Jim Zorn was the toast of the town, the offense was clicking, the defense was stalwart, and the goofier of us were doing dances. Even a shocking loss to the Rams wasn't enough to dampen our spirits, and two more wins gave us a first half record of 6-2 and an inside track on a wild card berth (the Giants were 7-1 and looking unstoppable at the time).

And then, in a blink of an eye, the wheels came off. Each week, it seemed as if the 'Skins had played their worst game ever, only to play even worse the next game. Even in a win against Seattle, the Skins looked nothing like the team lauded early in the season for avoiding mistakes and playing good, efficient football. Their games against Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Baltimore were virtually unwatchable. You've read my disdain for my favorite team's performance all season long on this blog.

But what is it that actually defines a great collapse? Wasting an opportunity is the key part: the more seemingly assured the opportunity, and the more precipitous the decline, the more dramatic the collapse. Without question, the Denver Broncos pulled off a greater collapse than the Redskins this season.

With three weeks to go, the Broncos' magic number was one; one win or a Chargers loss over the last three weeks of the season and the AFC West title was theirs, as well as a playoff spot. And even if they couldn't pull it off in their games in week 15 and 16 (against Carolina and Buffalo), they'd have the opportunity to close the deal on the field against San Diego in the final week of the season. Denver managed to lose all three games, and give the division to the Chargers.

And on top of that, Denver wasn't an "out of nowhere" team like the Redskins were. The Redskins had a first-year coach, an inexperienced and unproven quarterback, and the consensus toughest division in football to contend with. While San Diego was a sexy Super Bowl pick this season, Denver was thought highly enough of to merit playoff discussion in the offseason (specifically on Joe and Joe Sports' AFC preview show). Moreover, (now former) Broncos coach Mike Shanahan has a pair of Super Bowl rings on his fingers. He's the kind of coach you're looking for when you just need to win one game. Denver couldn't, and they're out of the playoff picture.

I am, by no means, suggesting that the Redskins didn't choke; absolutely they did. But Denver had a greater and later opportunity to close the door on a playoff spot, and they laid an egg. Maybe we shouldn't have been that surprised about Shanahan getting axed.

Top Five 2009 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Last week, I wrote up the top five likely busts for the 2009 fantasy football season, and hinted at this article's pending arrival. Not wanting to perpetuate the disappointment that often comes with any claim or promise made by Joe and Joe Sports, I present to you this article, addressing the players who might be under-valued going into next season. As with the last article, many things can change between now and then (retirements, free agency, trades, draft picks, etc), and this list is likely very different from one I might write in two months, let alone going into the 2009 season. But it's a fun exercise (which distinguishes it from leg lifts, a decidedly unpleasant exercise), so here we go.

1. Joseph Addai - Addai was a first round pick coming into this season, and was generally one of the most disappointing players in fantasy sports. He finished with just 544 yards and 5 TDs, and missed weeks 15 and 16 (fantasy playoff time) due to injury. All that being said, I like Addai to be a high level producer next year. He figures to be the featured back from week 1, and the Colts' offense is always one of the best in the NFL when Manning is healthy, which he should be from the get-go next year. My advice is to watch him slip to the third and fourth rounds, and scoop him up. 2009 projections: 1400 total yards, 12 TDs
2. Tom Brady - Brady is the kind of guy who's going to have lots of questions surrounding him next year, regardless of whether or not Matt Cassel returns (which I expect he won't). Brady, as you may remember, set a single-season record for passing touchdowns in 2007 with 50, and likely helped some opponent of yours nab the fantasy championship last year. And yet, there will likely be three or four QBs taken before him in your draft next year (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers all figure to be in the mix). Brady was never the beneficiary of pristine mechanics or a rocket arm. He's a smart quarterback who's got a great scheme and fantastic receivers for it, and all of that will be the same when he starts playing football again. Draft Brady with confidence anytime after the third round. 2009 projections: 4100 yards, 30 TDs, 13 INTs
   
3. Marques Colston - Normally I wouldn't put a guy who's got Colston's kind of track record on this list, but it seems like people still aren't sold on him. He missed 5 games this season, and finished with numbers that are unimpressive even when projected out for 16 games. But don't let the numbers deceive you. Colston is a very talented receiver who'll still have Drew Brees throwing to him, and will still be the #1 receiver in an extremely pass-happy offense. He's going to put up great numbers, and would be a steal in the fifth or sixth rounds. 2009 projections: 90 catches, 1200 yards, 9 TDs.
4. Chad Johnson (Chad Ocho Cinco) - Johnson had by far the worst season of his career, with just 53 catches and 540 yards. And if you listened to my early predictions on fantasy production, he probably cost you some victories, and you want to extract your vengeance from my skull. That's understandable, but I'm going to keep riding this train. I look at 2008 as an anomoly, and I expect Chad to be a worthwhile pick next year. I'll caution you against drafting him too high, but if you can grab him as a late #2 or early #3 receiver for your team, he could be the guy who leads your team to the promised land. 2009 projections: 85 catches, 1250 yards, 9 TDs
5. Darren McFadden - I'm not ready to discount McFadden as "injury-prone" just yet, although it's certainly possible that he'll end up being that kind of guy. But after being hobbled and generally un-used for most of the season, McFadden stands a pretty good chance of being ignored on draft day. That would be a mistake. He still averaged 4.4 yards per carry, and is still a very talented player. The Raiders aren't skilled enough to keep a player like McFadden off the field for very long, so I expect he'll get more opportunities next year. Don't draft McFadden to start for your team, but when you're filling out your roster in the middle rounds, make sure you don't let him slip too far. 2009 projections: 1200 total yards, 8 TDs

Redskins Report Card: Week 17 vs. San Francsico 49ers

49ers 27, Redskins 24

And so, the season ends much the way it began, with disappointment and speculation on what changes might be made. I'll be speaking with some of my journalistic colleagues (read: drinking buddies) and preparing a post to go over the Skins' offseason plans, what I think they will be and what I think they should be. But for now, let's review Washington's most recent loss.

Offense: C-

The offense did some things I'm happy about. They put together four drives of 40 or more yards, which is something they've struggled to do all season. Three of those drives resulted in touchdowns, also encouraging. But they also had three 3-and-outs and a devastating fumble to start the second half. Additionally, they had five drives that netted less than 10 yards, which means that they were providing no field position advantage to their defense most of the time.

Jason Campbell totaled just 156 yards passing, though he showed once again that, while he doesn't have great speed, his instincts on scrambling are almost always spot on. But the quarterback's job, first and foremost, is to get the ball down the field, and with 4.6 yards per passing play, Campbell failed miserably on that front. The ground game was decent but not special, and I'm beginning to think more and more that this was Portis' swan song as a premier running back in the NFL...which makes me wonder why Ladell Betts didn't get more opportunities this season (just 61 carries this season).

Defense: C-

The defense has been a strength all season, but this Sunday played at a very unimpressive level. The 49ers outgained the Redskins by nearly 100 yards, and had seven, seven drives of 20 yards or more. Most important, San Francisco put together scoring drives on all three of their 4th quarter possessions, gaining 80 yards for a TD, 34 yards for a FG, and 51 yards for another field goal to win the game at the buzzer. When the game was on the line, when the Redskins needed a stop, the defense just couldn't hold.

Once again, the defense was also unable to generate much in the way of turnovers, though it was nice to see Carlos Rogers actually hold on to an interception. But just once next year, I'd like to see a four turnover game. The 'Skins have got the personnel in the secondary to make it happen; they just need some pass rush to harass a quarterback or two.

Special Teams: C+

The special teams were anything but special. Shaun Suisham made a 41-yard field goal, his only attempt of the day, and Ryan Plackemeier was generally effective. But once again, the punt return game by Antwaan Randle El was atrocious. I hope they get Devin Thomas working on his hands and open-field moves, so we don't have to suffer through another season of these terrible, go-nowhere punt returns.

I'm fine with Randle El as the #2 receiver, by the way. He's got decent hands and seems to have a good rapport with Campbell. I don't think you can lay more money into receivers with Cooley being featured and after drafting three receivers in the second round last year. You have to ride the current group for the time being, and hope someone else emerges to go alongside Santana Moss.

Overall: C-

There's not much else to say about this performance. There were a few highlights, but as has been the case for much of the second half of the 2008 NFL season, the Redskins just didn't have what it takes to close the deal. The first year of the Jim Zorn era ends at 8-8, not a terrible season, but certainly a let-down after the 6-2 start in what should've been tougher games.

See you next year.

Top Five 2009 Fantasy Football Busts

It's never too early to start talking about the next fantasy season, especially for those of you in keeper leagues. So, as sort of a half 2008 wrap-up, half 2009 preview, let's take a look at the guys who played above their potential in 2008, and will likely be disappointments next season. This is, of course, with only partial information, so much can (and probably will) change before next season. Whatever, it's fun.

1. DeAngelo Williams - Listen, Williams was awesome this season. He was particularly dominant in the second half of the season, posting at least 70 yards and a touchdown in each of the past 8 games, and recording two games with 4 touchdowns, including in week 16, which likely won games for most of his owners. His stock will be in the clouds going into next season; I've seen projections that have him in the top 5. Wrong. He'll be good, but Jonathan Stewart is likely to figure into the offense more next year, and he was already a touchdown hawk. Look for a two-headed monster next year that gives fantasy owners fits. 2009 projections: 1200 total yards, 10 TDs
2. Matt Cassel - Cassel was actually not as good as people might feel. He had five games where he threw at least 3 TDs, but also had four games when he didn't score at all, far too many for an elite level QB. He can be solid, but no way does he come anywhere near the top guys' production (Manning, Brees, Romo, Brady). I do place one caveat on this, though. If he goes to Arizona this offseason, Cassel will be worth at least a 4th round pick, and should be considered a potential keeper. 2009 projections: 3800 yards, 24 TDs, 15 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
   
3. Dallas Clark - Another beneficiary of great fantasy playoff production, Clark had a touchdown in each of the final three games of the fantasy season (assuming your championship game is in week 16...and if it's not, you've probably got some hokey champions). People who won playoff games with Clark or lost games because of him will think of him as a powerhouse, but the reality is that, even with Harrison less than fantastic and injuries in the running game, creating a greater opportunity for Clark to step up and post big numbers, he accumulated only 789 yards and 6 TDs. Those are fine numbers from a tight end, as long as you're drafting him in the 10th round. Don't overpay, that's all I'm saying on this or any of these. 2009 projections: 700 yards, 8 TDs
   
4. Thomas Jones - Because he didn't get consistent playing time until 2004, many of your fellow fantasy owners won't realize that Jones will be 31 when the season opens next year. Don't make the same mistake. While he's been effective for 5 years now, he's in the midst of a career year, and the chances that he matches this production next year are extremely slim. Definitely take a look at Leon Washington in the later rounds, though. He's got great explosiveness, and if he's given a chance to be the featured back, he could be a stud. 2009 projections: 1100 total yards, 4 TDs
5. Kurt Warner - While I think Warner will be a colossal bust to anyone who drafts him next year, I've got him at number five because I think a lot of people will realize that he's not that good. His contract is up after this season, and I don't see him returning to the passing heaven that is the Arizona Cardinals. That means he'll be joining a team without two elite level wide receivers, and I just don't like Warner at all in Tampa Bay or Cleveland or wherever. 2009 projections: 3100 yards, 18 TDs, 20 INTs

I should note that two of the guys on the list, Williams and Cassel, were on my fantasy championship team. However, I managed to talk myself out of starting Cassel on most occasions, opting for Romo instead. So, thank goodness for DeAngelo. :)

I've got a similar article in the works, one that will focus on the opposite type of players: players who were disappointing this year, but I expect to bounce back next season. Should be up next week.

Christmas Eve Post

It's Christmas Eve, and I've got a couple things to mention, but figured it'd be a waste to put them in separate posts. First, a friend brought this to my attention; you can track Santa's sleigh ride 'round the world. So...enjoy that.

Additionally, our second round of voting also ended in a tie, so I'm just going to arbitrarily pick the song that was part of both of the ties, and play that one. Look forward to that.

My brother bought NHL '09 for the Xbox 360 a couple months ago, and while I was unexcited initially, I've come to really enjoy playing it. It's got a neat feature that coincides with similar features present in most other EA Sports games where you take control of a single player and try to guide them to the promised land...which I guess is the hockey hall of fame? I haven't gotten that far into it yet, still in season one. Anyways, it's really interesting to try to learn a specific position, to work off the puck, and to play positional defense (rather than the wild checkfest that my normal defense tends to deteriorate into).

Don't forget to check out our partner site, Joe and Joe Sports, now on its own domain!

Santa Gets the Boot

Today is Christmas Eve, and after doing my usual perusing through my sports websites, I noticed this little gem from www.si.com. I've got a couple extra minutes on my hand and thought the blog could use a sports/holiday related story. Its entitled "Tomlin annoyed by fake Santa." The title pretty much summarizes the story, but here's a little more detail:

A sports announcer has traditionally dressed up as Santa for the Steelers pre-Christmas press gathering. Apparently, he went a little overboard this year, though, after handing out gifts, cracking a few jokes, and even "roasting" a few Steelers, I'm not sure where he crossed the line.

The bottom of the article is what really gets me. "Later, the Steelers said there would be no future appearances from Santa at any of their news conferences." I do enjoy a fun tradition, and I understand that traditions will evolve and change over time, but putting an end to this bizarre tradition that apparently started during the Cowher era is silly. Its a silly tradition to begin with, but even the NFL needs a break from all the seriousness all the time. A little comedy and holiday spirit mixed together before the Christmas holiday sounds like a light-hearted laugh that has been enjoyed by the other press and Cowher when he coached. Tomlin clearly was not annoyed enough to boot Santa from press conferences last year. So what's the deal??

My only hope is that the football gods look down on this and hamper the Steelers winning ways.

Happy Holidays and Happy New Year!

Mark Teixeira: Worth It

For those of you just hearing, Mark Teixeira has reportedly signed an 8-year deal with the New York Yankees for $170 million, possibly more.

I'm going to do my best to make this less of a fantasy baseball article, and more of an MLB baseball article. I love fantasy baseball, but the dollars involved in Teixeira's upcoming contract are only partially related to fantasy sports. And I think he's going to be worth every penny he's paid, and even more (which means I think the Washington Nationals should've ponied up the dough).

First off, the talk is an 8-year deal worth $21.25 million per year. How does that compare to other salaries in baseball? Well, it's near the top. Listen, nobody's going to argue that Teixeira won't be that expensive. He absolutely will be among the highest paid players in baseball. Among contracts already signed, only Alex Rodriguez, Johan Santana, and CC Sabathia will also be members of the $20 Million Club (notice two future teammates of Teixeira on that list; don't even bother trying to argue that the Red Sox or Mets are on the same level as the Yankees when it comes to spending). Remember, though, that many of the best players in baseball are still on their initial contracts, or are going through arbitration, and thus haven't been paid full market value yet, like Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, and Matt Holliday. Furthermore, remember that there are a number of MLB veterans who've got fat contracts and aren't performing at that level, like Troy Glaus, Barry Zito, Garret Anderson, and J.D. Drew.

So why is Mark Teixeira worth the money that those players aren't? Because Teixeira is the real thing. His career lows are 26 HR and 84 RBI (both in his rookie season), and has the following five-year averages:

.285, 100 R, 35 HR, 118 RBI, 80 BB

Can you guarantee that kind of production over the next 8-10 years? No, of course not. Don Mattingly, Kent Hrbek, and Mo Vaughn were all top-tier hitters at 28 and out of baseball by their 36th birthdays. But Mark Teixeira has been amazingly consistent as one of the premier power hitters in baseball for five years, and he's succeeded in three different uniforms. I'm as close to certain as I can be about anyone that Teixeira will be a legitimate cleanup hitter for years to come, and those are guys you have to pay for. The reality is that nobody as good as Teixeira is available in free agency this season other than Manny Ramirez, and Manny comes with his own set of issues. Issues that apparently the Yankees were loathe to endure.

The Orioles apparently offered $140 million over 7 years and didn't budge from that, which was essentially conceding that they wouldn't sign Teixeira barring a dramatic hometown discount (which was unlikely with Scott Boras as his agent). The Nationals were in the $20 million per year range, but over 8 years, putting them in the same range as the reported offers by the Red Sox and Angels. The word on the street was that the Nationals would have to pay $200 million over 10 years to get Teixeira.

They should've done it.

Having a guy you can lock into the cleanup spot for at least the next 5-6 years (and probably longer; look at Carlos Delgado or Jim Thome) is an extremely valuable asset. Additionally, signing Teixeira immediately makes your team a legitimate destination for future free agents, as well as giving your still uncommitted fan base a reason to come to the ballpark.

I'm still an Orioles fan first and a Nationals fan second, but I want the Nationals to grow into my new favorite team. I loved the Expos; it's only right that I should like them when they move into my back yard. I was salivating at the thought of Teixeira coming this season, then the Nationals throwing a big contract offer at Matt Holliday next offseason, and riding those two guys in the heart of the lineup for years and years. I can only hope that the new stadium in New York doesn't offer the same short porch in right field, or it could be a long half-dozen years for the AL East.

Oh, who am I kidding. It's going to be long either way.

Redskins Report Card: Week 16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Redskins 10, Eagles 3

If you'd have told me the Washington Redskins could score 10 points and win a divisional game, I'd have called you a liar. Well, maybe not. It's professional football, and as the saying goes, anything can happen on "any given Sunday." But still, it's very surprising to see how things turned out.

Offense: C-

You can't score 10 points and have me give you a high rating on offense, win or no win. Jason Campbell had only 144 yards passing, and his completion percentage was only a tick over 50%. Clinton Portis averaged 3.2 yards per carry, and Ladell Betts averaged 3.3. The Redskins punted 8 times, and averaged a paltry 4.3 yards per play. Their sole touchdown came as a result of a turnover.

And in the last ten minutes of the game, when Washington was up by only 7 points, they got three possessions, averaged 1:24 per drive, and went 3-and-out on each of them. Those are the game-closing opportunities that good teams take advantage of to either score again to put the game out of reach, or drain the clock. The Redskins did neither, and it almost cost them the game.

In the vein of proposing completely ambiguous and unjustified concepts, it seems like Campbell is hesitant to throw deep balls. I'm not going to sit here and say that "I saw plenty of guys get open downfield," because the reality is that most guys aren't open most of the time. But some guys are more open than others, and when a guy is 40 yards downfield and is sort of open, the risk/reward suggests that's a pass you should take rather than a swing pass to a covered Portis or Betts. Deep passes open up everything; they open up the short and intermediate passing games, and give running backs much more room to work with. Additionally, Santana Moss and Devin Thomas are both long pass threats who aren't being used properly if they're not being targeted deep.

Defense: A

Before the last play of the game, the defense was sitting at around a B+, and had they given up a game-tying touchdown, would've likely dropped down to a B. But that play was just fantastic. Fred Smoot made a good play on the receiver, and LaRon Landry did exactly what you drafted LaRon Landry to do: lay hits and stop guys. Watching the play live went something like this:

anxiety - quick, deep breath - holding breath - grimace - tentative clap - intent stare at review - big fist pump

That's what watching football is all about.

Other than the final drive, the Redskins defense was stalwart. They forced six 3-and-outs, and allowed more than 15 yards on only two drives all game. Most exciting, however, was the fact that Jason Taylor actually started to produce, making two sacks, including one that forced a fumble by Donovan McNabb. It was the first glimpse of the Jason Taylor I had hoped the Redskins had acquired when I wrote about how good a move it was. If he returns next year as expected, hopefully we'll see more of this.

Special Teams: B

My longtime faith in Ryan Plackemeier paid dividends on Sunday, when he put the Eagles inside their own 20 yard line on five different occasions. Shaun Suisham was less impressive, picking up his league-leading 10th missed field goal. That's a bad category to lead the league in, and I'm starting to come around on Suisham not being the answer. Still, I don't see any value in benching/cutting him at this point, and I'd only dump him for next season if other roster changes suggest the 'Skins might be competing. That is, if it looks like the offense will score more than 15 points a game.

Antwaan Randle El had his first really nice punt return in weeks, gaining 36. Moss had a nice one as well, but it was called back on a penalty. Rock Cartwright picked up 20 yards on his only kickoff return of the day.

Overall: B

It was by no means a pretty game, and the offense looked as anemic as ever, which is definitely a concern for a supposed "offensive-minded" head coach. But a win is a win, and that last defensive play was perhaps the best moment in Redskins football this entire season.

Next week, I'll give analysis on the final game of the season against the 49ers, and then a full breakdown of the Redskins' entire season. We're also looking into a possible radio show (first in a while) discussing what the Redskins' offseason plans should entail. It should be fun.

A Comparison of Two Pitchers

The following are the stats from the rookie years of two starting pitchers:

Pitcher A: 19GS, 6-6, 116.2 IP, 147K, 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Pitcher B: 24GS, 7-5, 146.1 IP, 150K, 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Their records are essentially a wash. The rest of the stats lay in the favor of Pitcher A. Pitcher B had a K rate of 9.22/9IP, while Pitcher A had a K/9 rate of 11.34. Pitcher A had the lower ERA and WHIP, although a 4.00 and sub-1.30 WHIP for a rookie pitcher is certainly nothing to scoff at. But how did these two pitchers follow-up their rookie seasons?

Pitcher A: 30GS, 18-6, 211.1 IP, 245K, 2.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Pitcher B: 33GS, 18-5, 227.0 IP, 265K, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Both pitchers clearly had no trouble. Both posted impressive numbers across the board. Their records are again a wash and so is the K/9 rate with Pitcher B posting a slightly better rate than Pitcher A in their sophomore efforts (10.51 vs. 10.44). Pitcher A again led in terms of ERA and WHIP. Clearly fantasy owners and MLB general managers would be willing to plug either of these two youngsters in at the top of their rotation.

Each pitcher saw their innings increase significantly. Pitcher A had threw an additional 95 innings and Pitcher B threw an extra 81 innings. How will these two guys do from here on out? We will have to wait and see how Pitcher B fares in his effort to defend his NL Cy Young Award. The Giants placed a pretty heavy work load on Tim Lincecum as they (successfully) attempted to push Lincey to the top of Cy Young ballots and bring San Francisco a bright spot to their otherwise dim season. There have always been questions of Lincecum's ability to hold up over the long haul as a starting pitcher due to his small frame and mechanics. That said he has no injury history and getting through the 2009 season would go a long way in putting these fears to rest. How he will do from here on out is anybody's guess. Luckily we have some prior evidence to suggest how Lincecum's trajectory may turn out.

What about Pitcher A? The one that seemed to match or slightly outperform Lincecum over the course his first two seasons? No pitcher's future seemed quite so bright after Mark Prior completed his 2003 season especially when you consider his post all-star figures from that year (10-1, 1.52 ERA). That drove many average Joes to grab him early in 2004 keeper leagues. Since 2003 Prior has won a total of just 18 games. Of course when he came up people spoke about how he was built to be a starting pitcher (he has 6 inches and 55 pounds on Lincecum). That didn't really work out... I'm not saying that Lincecum will definitely not hold up. People said the same things about Pedro and he's had an okay career. But in a fantasy keeper league selling high may not be the worst idea. The worst idea would be to take Greg Maddux with the first pick. That guy isn't even playing next year.

Is Bobby Abreu A Keeper?

Bobby Abreu is a guy that we often think of as benefiting greatly from his presence in one of the strongest lineups in baseball as a member of the New York Yankees. With him likely not returning to the Yankees next season, does he retain his keeper value? There's actually a good amount of data on this, and the decision should be easier than you may realize.

Abreu was a 20-100-100-20 player last year (almost exactly), and hit .296. The previous season he had similar stats, with 16 HRs and 123 runs. The year before, again, very similar, with 15 HR and 30 SB. He's a career .300 hitter who has played in at least 150 games every season since he arrived in Philadelphia in 1998. He's as safe a bet for 15-100-100-15 as there is outside of the first round guys (A-Rod, Wright, Utley), and is a rare legitimate five-category producer.

Another bit of good news is that, being a productive veteran, he's going to command a substantial contract. That means he's most likely going to end up somewhere that's got a good lineup in place. It might not be "Yankee good," but he's not going to be hurting for protection or guys getting on base in front of him. The recent talk has been about the Rays; I'd definitely like him hitting behind Upton and in front of Longoria. If he doesn't end up in Tampa, he'll end up somewhere else with a team that's willing to spend money on a guy who will produce now, so most likely a team that's got the pieces in place to keep Abreu productive.

He's 34 years old, which might scare off some owners, but if you're at all planning on competing in the 2009 MLB season, you've got to hold on to Abreu. And if you're not, you need to put Abreu on the market. He deserves to be kept in medium-depth keeper leagues (6+ keepers per team).

2009 projected stats: .300, 110 R, 15 HR, 100 RBI, 20 SB

The Big Vote: Overtime!

So it turns out that we had a tie, and I didn't really have an opinion on how to resolve the tie, so I just posted two DMB songs and Hey Hey What Can I Do. Vote for whichever you want, and we'll try to get a winner here. Make your choice.

Redskins Report Card: Week 15 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals 20, Redskins 13

If you were to write a script for how Jim Zorn could be on the hot seat after that 6-2 start, it might go exactly like the past 6 games have gone. Seriously, this is bad, and it seems like the Washington Redskins are only getting worse. I want to offer some objective analysis, and I'm going to try to, but understand that with each passing week, it's become more and more difficult to separate my disappointment from my evaluations. Still, I'm in the business of trying and failing, rather than not trying, so here we go.

Offense: D+

I went all the way back to Week 1 against the Giants to find out what I had rated this offense in that game, and felt comfortable giving this performance a similar ranking. The running game was stifled throughout, and Campbell had a wholly unimpressive game. To be fair, he had the kind of game that he had several times during wins earlier in the season, but without the powerhouse running game to complement it, it's not nearly enough production.

This is the part of the analysis where you're expecting me to try to explain why giving the ball to Mike Sellers twice on the one yard line was a good idea, even though he was stuffed and then fumbled. Well, how's this for a shocker: it wasn't. Sellers' greatest asset is his ability to blast through arm tackles, and power forward for extra yardage on dump off passes. We saw him do just that on his only reception of the game, a 14-yard check-down. But the reality is that, while Sellers is technically a "fullback," he's best suited as a 3rd down back. Swing passes, screens, draws, that's where Sellers can be most effective. Running him up the gut at the goal line makes almost as little sense as if the Skins' had done it with Larry Centers back in the day.

One last thing. On my favorite local radio show, The Sports Reporters, co-host Steve Czaban made a comment regarding Santana Moss's ill-conceived celebration and Clinton Portis's mouthing off during the week. The connection between the two players, of course, is the University of Miami. His quote (roughly, I was in the car), "There is an absurd clique of entitlement and jack-assery from that university, and I just wish the Redskins would take their business elsewhere." He's got a good point; Portis seems to constantly be undermining his coaches and teammates, and Moss acts like a #1 wide receiver but plays like a #2. Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson were elite players when they took heat for celebrating too much. Moss is what, the 10th best receiver in the conference? Give me a break.

Defense: C+

The Redskins played F defense for one quarter, and A- defense for the rest of the game. Thus, C+ defense. Cincinnati and Ryan freaking Fitzpatrick picked apart the Skins to the tune of 14 first-quarter points, and gained over 180 yards on their four drives that started in the first quarter. Perhaps the most disappointing part of the Bengals' stat line is that Fitzpatrick had 11 carries. Why is that disappointing? Because that means that the Skins flushed him from the pocket at least a half-dozen times, and weren't able to put him on the ground before he passed the line of scrimmage. That's a symptom of a defense that doesn't disrupt the passer, and can't even generate coverage sacks when they lock down receivers.

Also, I don't want to beat a dead horse, but when your team doesn't have an explosive offense, you need to keep the turnover differential squared up. I think it's fair to say that, if the Redskins could've generated two takeaways to counter the two fumbles the offense lost, we might be talking about a hard-fought and troublesome win (like the one against Detroit), rather than a deflating loss.

Special Teams: B

If I were only evaluating the way they played, the special teams would get an A or A-. But unfortunately, the punt return game, finally showing some promise, was marred by constant penalties. On three different punt returns, the Redskins were called for penalties, including one penalty that negated a 28-yard return by Santana Moss. So they finally made something happen in the return game, where they've had trouble all year, and they draw a penalty to kill it.

Rock Cartwright is a beast, though. He had an 87 yard return late in the game that would've set up a touchdown for a good offensive team, and set up a field goal for the anemic Redskins offense. And while Ryan Plackemeier isn't an elite punter, he certainly had a good game, and got two great punts early in the game when the offense was stalled out. Unfortunately, the defense couldn't hold tough, and the lowly Bengals looked like mighty tigers.

Overall: C-

The only consolation after watching this game is that I know for certain that the Redskins aren't a playoff caliber team. Yes, they had a chance at making the playoffs if they had won, but anybody who saw the debacle on Sunday knows full well that Washington has no business in the playoffs. Now is the time to get Fred Davis, Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, and all the other youngsters into the lineup, and give them a chance to get a feel for the offense. I expect Jim Zorn to be back next season, and if the young guys, specifically Thomas, can start to get comfortable with the scheme, you never know, maybe one of them explodes for a great sophomore season.

PS: I decided to nix the evaluation of playoff scenarios that I talked about last week. It felt too early to start going into them, with so many teams still in the mix, and it also felt like the Redskins were going to lose this game. Now, fortunately or unfortunately, we don't have to delve into that topic, and we can focus on other things...like baseball. Expect a baseball-related article this week. See you soon.

Redskins Report Card: Week 14 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Ravens 24, Redskins 10

Well, that was that. I can't see a way that Redskins look likely to make the playoffs at this point, barring some big time collapses on the part of other teams. I'll put together a little examination of the possibilities as an article later this week, but for the time being, just accept that they're virtually eliminated.

Offense: D

I could just copy and paste last week's description, but I'll give you at least fresh language. The running game was pitiful, maybe even worse than it was against the Giants. Most notably, Clinton Portis, no longer the NFL's leading rusher, has combined for 22 carries and 54 yards between the past two games. Those are bad numbers for a single game; as two-game totals for the most important player on the Skins' team, they're fatal.

The passing game was anemic, accumulating just 192 net yards, with Jason Campbell tossing two interceptions. Turnovers were once again the death knell for this team; two early giveaways essentially ended the game. And this has been the story all season. When Washington has been able to limit (or eliminate) turnovers, they've been a good team, and a winning team. But ever since Campbell's first interception, the Redskins have gotten worse and worse on offense, looking less composed with every snap.

The blame for this problem goes all over. Campbell should be able to keep his cool better, he's been in the league for several years now. Additionally, Jim Zorn needs to see the way his quarterback is reacting and adjust his game plan to include more motion, screens, end-arounds, and swing passes, to keep Campbell's confidence up and keep the Ravens' defense off balance. When your running game isn't working (and against Baltimore, you have to expect it might not), you've got to find different ways to pull the defensive backs towards the line.

Speaking of the running game again, some of Campbell's problems have to be put on Portis' shoulders. Not just because the running game needs to be more effective, but because Portis is the face of the Washington offense. If the quarterback is getting jittery, it's Portis' job to say, "I got this, just relax," and then to blow up the next guy who comes in on a blitz, or to take one of those swing passes and blast his way to the sticks. He's got to be as much of a leader as Campbell; while obviously you want Campbell to be poised at all times, the goal is to win games. So if it means Campbell has to take a back seat to Portis in the huddle for a moment, then that's how it goes. They're in the midst of a 1-4 stretch that's sliding them out of the playoffs; long-term cultivation has to be nudged aside for now.

I'd like to re-iterate my comment from last week that Mike Sellers needs to be more involved in the offense. In a situation like Sunday when your #1 guy goes down, you have to use a committee to try to get the job done, and Sellers has to be part of that committee. He's simply too explosive to resign him to special teams and an occasional 3rd down. And it's not like this offense is clicking on all cylinders and could be disrupted by a shake up. Let's see what Sellers can do with 10-12 touches; I have no doubt that if we don't, whatever team signs him next will, and will reap the benefits.

Defense: B

I decided that, at least for this game, I'm not going to penalize the defense's score for the ineptitude of the offense. The defense actually played very well, save for a crucial fourth quarter drive that essentially ended the game. They held Baltimore to fewer first downs than the Redskins, and got two turnovers while holding Joe Flacco to a paltry 134 yards. They did enough to put the Redskins in a position to win the game, but the offense piddled away every opportunity the defense provided.

An extra piece of information that I think we can take away from this game is that Willis McGahee is no longer the Ravens' long-term #1 running back. Le'Ron McClain seems to have a real knack for rushing the football, and in the NFL, you go with whoever is getting it done. The whole concept of playing someone because their contract is greater, or they were traded for a lot, pretty much goes out the window when you're in the playoff hunt.

Special Teams: C-

You can look back at what I've said in any Special Teams segment all year to know what I thought about their special teams against Baltimore: Randle El stinks, Plackemeier is okay, Rock Cartwright is solid, and Shaun Suisham isn't as bad as you think he is. And as for people who say that the Redskins should get rid of Suisham, explain it to me. If you get rid of him now, you'd be signing a kicker who nobody thought enough of to have on their team. If you get rid of him in the offseason and invest in a big name kicker, you're stupid. You have to look at kickers the same way you look at closers in baseball: you don't invest in a good one until everything else is in place. Suisham is fine for now. Let the offense give him some 30- to 40-yard field goals to try before you hang him out to dry.

Overall: D+

The game was excruciating to watch, unless you're a Ravens fan like Chip, in which case I imagine it felt like you were kicking a retarded kid. Way to go, you bullied the kid with MS, dick.

Look for an article detailing the wild scenarios that would put the Redskins in the playoffs later this week.

A Neat Feature For Rock Band 2

There's an interesting (though functionally useless) feature for Rock Band 2 that I discovered last night. In your Band Profile, you can edit the list of "stand-ins" for your band. You can choose from any of your created characters, and assign them to different instruments. I had no idea what the actual result of this was until last night, when I finally assigned some characters to instruments just before playing a few sets.

The "stand-ins" are on stage with you when nobody takes that instrument. For example, my stand-in drummer is Randy Savage (yes, that Randy Savage). I played guitar last night (as Hulk Hogan), and while I played, Randy Savage was the computer player playing the drums.

Is it useless? Completely. Is it a feat of programming? Definitely not. But is it cool? It is. For some reason, it is.

Is Robinson Cano A Keeper?

Robinson Cano has been one of the great mysteries of fantasy baseball over the past four years. Like clockwork, he's been unimpressive before the all-star break, and again like clockwork, he's vastly outperformed in the second half, each of the past four seasons. And in fact, it seems to have gotten more pronounced recently. The numbers:

• 2005: .288 pre-all-star break, .303 post-all-star break
  
• 2006: .325, 4 HR, 27 RBI before, .365, 11 HR, 51 RBI after
• 2007: .274, 6 HR, 40 RBI before, .343, 13 HR, 57 RBI after
• 2008: .247, .358 slugging before, .307, .482 slugging after

But when you draft (or in this case, keep) someone, you're investing in them for a full season; you don't want to keep a second baseman like Cano and then know you have to draft another one to plug in for the first half. So we have to review Cano as a full year candidate. And as a full year candidate, Cano just doesn't measure up.

I did some quick math and calculated Cano's 162-game pace over his first four season in the majors, and here they are: .303 AVG, 85 R, 18 HR, 87 RBI, 3 SB. In his "career year" in 2007, he hit .306 with 93 runs, 19 HR, and 97 RBI. If you could count on those kinds of numbers at a still pretty weak position like second base, Cano might sneak into your keeper list.

But you simply can't. The reality is he'll likely slip down to those 4-year averages, which makes him about as valuable as Jose Lopez. Who, you ask? Well, it's not surprising that you don't know him; he finished the season on the waiver wire in our very competitive keeper league. Granted, he was good enough to be on a team, but the reality is that you can get numbers very similar to Cano's for a fraction of "keeper price." Lopez, Kelly Johnson, Mike Aviles, and Placido Polanco figure to be available several rounds into the draft, and Cano belongs just a tick above them. A worthy pick in the 3rd-5th rounds, but not a keeper.

2009 projection: .310, 90 R, 15 HR, 80 RBI

Does The NFL Hate The Vikings?

As many of you know, the Minnesota Vikings are my second-favorite football team. They're on a pretty good run, winning four of their last five games including two division games that even up some important tiebreakers for the Vikings. So why am I mad?

Because the Vikings are going to lose defensive tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams for the last four games of the season, which puts even this weekend's game against Detroit in doubt. The importance of the two Williams to the Vikings defense cannot be overstated. They are quite simply the reason that Minnesota sports the #2 rushing defense in football. Kevin Williams also has 8.5 sacks, and his strength in the pass rush has allowed offseason acquisition Jared Allen to run rampant on opposing quarterbacks to the tune of 11 sacks. Losing the "Williams brothers" (the men are not related) would be a virtual deathblow to a defense that has come up strong in this recent stretch, and potentially to the Vikings' playoff chances.

My opinions on the NFL's and all sports' steroid policies is a matter for another post; what I want to talk about here is the Vikings. The Vikings lost Bryant McKinnie for the first four games of this season due to a suspension stemming from a fight outside a night club in Miami. Hmm. A football player in a fight? Unheard of. Well, except for on the football field.

On November 2nd, Jaguars defensive tackle John Henderson and Bengals guard Andrew Whitworth were in a scuffle. According to ESPN.com, "Henderson and Whitworth exchanged punches after Henderson knocked off Whitworth's helmet, then appeared to try to gouge his eyes. Both players were penalized and ejected Sunday." Punches, eye gouging, sounds like an classic WWF match. Their punishments? Four-game suspensions? Not exactly. They were ejected, as mentioned, and fined $10,000 apiece.

Why? Why this disparity? As a Vikings fan, of course, I think it's because the NFL hates the Vikings (and I'm not so sure that they don't). But realistically, it's because the NFL likes there to be fights on the field. They want their games to be as close to gladiatorial combat as is legally allowed. Fights are great. Street fights at a night club don't help the NFL perpetuate that similarity, so you get suspended. It's a load of shit. How is a player more responsible for his conduct when on personal time than during an actual NFL function? You know, like a game?

It's all about the public perception among non-NFL fans. It's not a news story if NFL players fight on the field; it's not a story at all. You can tell that from the lack of concern that commentators show when players get into scuffles. "And now a little bit of chippiness after the play," that's what they say. But it's a news story if an NFL player gets into a fight at a night club, because regular people want to think that rich people are all arrogant jerks, and professional athletes are an easy target for that.

This post has gone in every direction, so I'm going to grab one more story and call it a day. I'm sure most of you know all about the Plaxico Burress story, so I'm not going to bore you with the details. What I am going to mention, though, is this: from everything I've read and heard, it sounds like Antonio Pierce committed a serious crime. If the NFL doesn't punish him to at least the extent that McKinnie, Williams, and Williams have been punished, I'm going to move the Giants up to #1 on the list of teams I hate the most. Yes, I keep a list.

And more than likely, your team is on it.

Poll-star

I posted a poll to the right, and I'll live up to it (though I don't know how long it'll take me to get the resulting audio track posted). Anyways, have a look, vote, and get out of my face. (Check it around 2:45 if you just want the highlights)

Redskins Report Card: Week 13 vs. New York Giants

Giants 23, Redskins 7

The score may fool you into thinking that this game was competitive, when it was anything but. And the worst part of the game was that it was the Redskins' supposed strengths that failed them.

Offense: D+

The Redskins' trademark this year, their signature, has been the strong running game. They've relied on Clinton Portis for 30% of their offense for a good portion of the season, and he's always delivered. But we all knew that, eventually, some team was going to take away the running game and force it all upon Jason Campbell. Not surprisingly, it happened when Washington faced one of the best-coached, most balanced teams in the NFL.

On Sunday, Portis accounted for a paltry 11% of a mostly unimpressive offense that had one really good play, a touchdown on an end-around to Devin Thomas. The pass protection has to account for a large part of this disappointment, giving up 4 sacks and several more hurries and scrambles. Obviously the Giants have a top tier pass rush, but with all the money the Redskins have poured into the offensive line, you'd expect a little more performance out of them.

One last thing is that this team was at its best last year when Mike Sellers was involved. Sellers proved to be a very appealing red zone option, which is a place the Redskins have struggled this season. Both on the ground and through the air, Sellers has got to have a bigger role if the 'Skins are going to make good on my prediction (which I'll give you at the end of this article).

Defense: C-

This was a bad defensive performance as well. They did a decent job at containing the run, holding both Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward under 4.0 yards per carry, and stifling a couple of drives inside the red zone. But the Redskins got absolutely picked apart by Eli Manning, not much differently from their first meeting. Manning picked up 305 yards through the air, and hit virtually every important pass in the first half, making clutch third-down throws and just generally dominating the vaunted 'Skins secondary.

Is Washington's defense a disaster? No, not at all. Jason Taylor just needs to start doing what he was acquired to do, which is disrupt the passing game. He's a physical freak and he's got an entire career of pressuring quarterbacks. It's about time he started doing it in a Redskins uniform.

Special Teams: C-

Alright, I'm ready to back off of my support for the kicking game...just a tiny little bit. Shaun Suisham missed a 42-yard field goal, his 3rd miss in 4 tries on kicks over 40 yards over the past three games. But the two games before that he was 5/6 on 40+, so it's not like my faith in him was completely unfounded. I still don't think you replace him or anything drastic like that, and you still give him a chance at any field goal 45 yards or shorter in decent weather. But if it's a long field goal, or if weather is an issue, then you give more consideration to going for it on 4th down. That's all.

Plackemeier had some good punts, though he was trading punts with the master, Jeff Feagles. Someday this guy will get the credit he deserves; he's a virtuoso. Oh, and James Thrash is just useless. He can be a gunner on punts and a coverage guy on kickoffs, but you just can't give him the opportunity to catch/carry the ball anymore. That's Devin Thomas' job. He can be a decent kickoff guy, and since he's under-utilized on offense anyways, putting him in the return game only helps, doesn't hurt. Do it.

Overall: D

My overall grade this week is lower than any of the individual grades, and here's why: the clutch factor. Whenever the Redskins needed to make a play on offense, they came up short. Whenever the Redskins needed to make a play to stop the Giants' offense, they came up lame. In a game that's as competitive as professional football is, it all comes down to converting third downs, making smart special teams plays, taking advantage of opportunities that present themselves. The Redskins failed on all of these levels on Sunday, and it showed in the final score.

All that being said, I think the Redskins are a playoff team. What's that you say? They'd have to win their final 4 games to make it into the playoffs? Well then, that's what I'm predicting. There's no reason they should lose to San Francisco or Cincinnati, and Philadelphia is always a beatable team. This weekend's game against Baltimore is, in my mind, their toughest game on the road to the playoffs, and I think they win it. Baltimore isn't the powerhouse that they're getting credit for being, and this group of Redskins players made late pushes last year and three years ago. I think they've got it in them to do it again.

So watch out, 11-5, here come the Redskins!