Tuesday, March 31, 2015
A Single Happy Return
Apologies for my recent dead time here. I've had trouble focusing my thoughts as of late, and I've been working on a few other projects, both for work and personally. But don't worry; I'm still writing things, I'm just not finishing any of them. Hopefully soon, though.
Friday, March 6, 2015
2015 Fantasy Baseball - First Round Busts and Busters
Every year, fantasy baseball sees several new faces at the top of drafts, and every year a couple of last year's heroes turn into this year's zeroes. It's usually difficult to predict this sort of thing, but that's absolutely not my concern. I'm going to make some wild predictions here (potentially more bold than my "bold" predictions) about this year's first round picks, and about some players who aren't in the top two rounds this year, but I foresee making the jump.
First, let's look at who actually is a first-round pick, according to Yahoo:
Yahoo's Top Twelve Players, According to O-Rank
1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
3. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
Barring massive injury, I think these guys are safe bets to stick around at least a few years. Transcendent talents.
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers
Cabrera is interesting, because I really think he's going to do well this year, but it's very likely that he loses 3B going into next year. Probably still a first-round pick, though. He's the best hitter the league has seen since Manny Ramirez.
5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
6. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
7. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
8. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
I expect all four of these guys to remain in the first or early second rounds, depending on their relative performances and health. Goldschmidt, Stanton, and Abreu are all high end power talent, and even though people still mistrust Gomez, he's been a power-speed guy for years now. It's time to buy in.
9. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
Jones is a tough nut to crack. In a full season, he's almost a lock for .280-90-30-90. His speed is fading, and his plate discipline is zero (he walked just 19 times last year), but consistent power, average, and run production will always have value. I think he'll drop to the second round next year, but no farther than around 18th.
10. Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays
I hate thinking of Jose Bautista as "old" since he's two-and-a-half months younger than me, but the reality is that 34 is pretty old in baseball (maybe this is why it always seems to be sports fans who have midlife crises). If he stays healthy, he's probably got another year or two of top tier production, but his batting average dips in 2012 and 2013 give me pause.
11. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
I don't trust Rizzo, but he's got fair pedigree. I expect him to regress a little, but still be in the ballpark of .270 and 30 HR, and at his age, that'll keep people buying. I predict other people will have him in the first round again next year, and I predict I still won't.
12. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays
Encarnacion is like his teammate Bautista in a lot of ways. They both had slow starts to their careers, and they both appear to be top-level mashers with modest batting averages. I just don't trust Encarnacion. He has the smell of Adam Dunn to me, and that means while I expect he'll still hit with power, his dropoff in other categories will be precipitous. With a history of back ailments, I think there's a reasonable chance that Edwin could slip again this year, down to a .240-.260 hitting 1B with very good pop. On your draft boards, that's somewhere between David Ortiz (48) and Chris Carter (96).
My bets for dropping out of Yahoo's top round in 2016 are #9 Adam Jones, #10 Jose Bautista, and #12 Edwin Encarnacion. The rest I expect to stick around, again, barring massive injury.
Now for the more fun part: who's taking their spots? Since I have three guys dropping from the first round, I'm going to give you three guys to take their places. And to maximize the fun(/crazy) aspect, I'll only pick people outside of the top 25.
Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers (#36)
It's extremely difficult for a starting pitcher to get into the first round of a fantasy draft. The fact that Kershaw has been securely in the first round for multiple years is pretty remarkable. I think Darvish has that kind of next-level talent. His strikeout rate is fantastic, a must-have for a first round pitcher. While last season was cut short for him because of elbow inflammation, I think he's closer to his 2013 performance at his core. That's 2.83/1.07/.194 batting-average-against, for those of you unwilling to Google the man.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (#59)
I've never been totally wild about Joey Votto. I'm still not all the way on board with drafting guys who don't really have any speed upside; I always seem to have trouble finding steals. But in today's fantasy baseball world, batting average and run production puts you near the top of the draft. Votto has never hit lower than .297 in any season in which he played at least 100 games, and he still hits in Cincinnati, one of the better hitting ballparks out there. He may suffer from "broken heart syndrome," where people discount him because they got burned drafting him the past couple years, but I think a bounce-back is very possible, and that would put him right in the mix for the first round.
Not crazy enough for you? Alright, well how about...
Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles (#123)
If I'm being honest, I wouldn't bet much money on Machado actually breaking into the top 12 of Yahoo's O-Rank next season. That said, I think there's a ton of room for improvement here, and, just as importantly, I think the fantasy community is ready to believe in him. Machado was a top-tier prospect who's acquitted himself well in the major leagues. He's still just 22, which means there's plenty of time for him to evolve into the type of player he was projected to be. He's never been much of a speedster, but with a reasonable level of improvement, I don't think it's out of the question to see him take a 2006-Matt-Holliday-sized leap forward. A line of .310/100/30/100 is feasible, and at third base, that's first round magic.
So there you have it, my take on the first round this year and next. Stay tuned this season to see how right I was (or on the off chance I was slightly wrong, to harass me for it).
First, let's look at who actually is a first-round pick, according to Yahoo:
Yahoo's Top Twelve Players, According to O-Rank
- Mike Trout, OF, Angels
- Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
- Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
- Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
- Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
- Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
- Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
- Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
- Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays
1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
3. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
Barring massive injury, I think these guys are safe bets to stick around at least a few years. Transcendent talents.
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers
Cabrera is interesting, because I really think he's going to do well this year, but it's very likely that he loses 3B going into next year. Probably still a first-round pick, though. He's the best hitter the league has seen since Manny Ramirez.
5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
6. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
7. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
8. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
I expect all four of these guys to remain in the first or early second rounds, depending on their relative performances and health. Goldschmidt, Stanton, and Abreu are all high end power talent, and even though people still mistrust Gomez, he's been a power-speed guy for years now. It's time to buy in.
9. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
Jones is a tough nut to crack. In a full season, he's almost a lock for .280-90-30-90. His speed is fading, and his plate discipline is zero (he walked just 19 times last year), but consistent power, average, and run production will always have value. I think he'll drop to the second round next year, but no farther than around 18th.
10. Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, Blue Jays
I hate thinking of Jose Bautista as "old" since he's two-and-a-half months younger than me, but the reality is that 34 is pretty old in baseball (maybe this is why it always seems to be sports fans who have midlife crises). If he stays healthy, he's probably got another year or two of top tier production, but his batting average dips in 2012 and 2013 give me pause.
11. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
I don't trust Rizzo, but he's got fair pedigree. I expect him to regress a little, but still be in the ballpark of .270 and 30 HR, and at his age, that'll keep people buying. I predict other people will have him in the first round again next year, and I predict I still won't.
12. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays
Encarnacion is like his teammate Bautista in a lot of ways. They both had slow starts to their careers, and they both appear to be top-level mashers with modest batting averages. I just don't trust Encarnacion. He has the smell of Adam Dunn to me, and that means while I expect he'll still hit with power, his dropoff in other categories will be precipitous. With a history of back ailments, I think there's a reasonable chance that Edwin could slip again this year, down to a .240-.260 hitting 1B with very good pop. On your draft boards, that's somewhere between David Ortiz (48) and Chris Carter (96).
My bets for dropping out of Yahoo's top round in 2016 are #9 Adam Jones, #10 Jose Bautista, and #12 Edwin Encarnacion. The rest I expect to stick around, again, barring massive injury.
Now for the more fun part: who's taking their spots? Since I have three guys dropping from the first round, I'm going to give you three guys to take their places. And to maximize the fun(/crazy) aspect, I'll only pick people outside of the top 25.
Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers (#36)
It's extremely difficult for a starting pitcher to get into the first round of a fantasy draft. The fact that Kershaw has been securely in the first round for multiple years is pretty remarkable. I think Darvish has that kind of next-level talent. His strikeout rate is fantastic, a must-have for a first round pitcher. While last season was cut short for him because of elbow inflammation, I think he's closer to his 2013 performance at his core. That's 2.83/1.07/.194 batting-average-against, for those of you unwilling to Google the man.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (#59)
I've never been totally wild about Joey Votto. I'm still not all the way on board with drafting guys who don't really have any speed upside; I always seem to have trouble finding steals. But in today's fantasy baseball world, batting average and run production puts you near the top of the draft. Votto has never hit lower than .297 in any season in which he played at least 100 games, and he still hits in Cincinnati, one of the better hitting ballparks out there. He may suffer from "broken heart syndrome," where people discount him because they got burned drafting him the past couple years, but I think a bounce-back is very possible, and that would put him right in the mix for the first round.
Not crazy enough for you? Alright, well how about...
Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles (#123)
If I'm being honest, I wouldn't bet much money on Machado actually breaking into the top 12 of Yahoo's O-Rank next season. That said, I think there's a ton of room for improvement here, and, just as importantly, I think the fantasy community is ready to believe in him. Machado was a top-tier prospect who's acquitted himself well in the major leagues. He's still just 22, which means there's plenty of time for him to evolve into the type of player he was projected to be. He's never been much of a speedster, but with a reasonable level of improvement, I don't think it's out of the question to see him take a 2006-Matt-Holliday-sized leap forward. A line of .310/100/30/100 is feasible, and at third base, that's first round magic.
So there you have it, my take on the first round this year and next. Stay tuned this season to see how right I was (or on the off chance I was slightly wrong, to harass me for it).
Monday, February 16, 2015
2015 Major League Baseball Bold Predictions
Everyone wants to be the guy who "just knew" something was going to happen before everyone else did. I drafted Clayton Kershaw the year before he exploded onto the scene, and I did the same with Jose Abreu last season. I'll always remember those "clever" picks (though really they were mostly lucky).
So this year, I'm going to make a bold prediction about each team, or a player on that team. Some will be bolder than others, naturally. But I'm posting this as a record for all to see, so that you may either laud my precognition or laugh at my foolishness come October.
Baltimore Orioles - Jonathan Schoop will hit 30 home runs, but he'll still have his name mispronounced regularly.
Boston Red Sox - All of the Red Sox' changes will appear to pay off from a statistical standpoint, but inexplicably won't be reflected in the win-loss columns. Boston will be out of the playoff mix by August.
New York Yankees - The Yankees will start off hot, and sometime before May 31st, there'll be a prominent story somewhere talking about how Derek Jeter was holding back the Yankees in his final years.
Tampa Bay Rays - Evan Longoria will the finest season of his career, but he won't be able to help the Rays stay out of last place.
Toronto Blue Jays - A Blue Jay will hit 50 home runs in 2015. I can't get more specific than that, but they have so much power in their lineup that someone is bound to go off.
Chicago White Sox - Jose Abreu won't lead the team in home runs, but he will be the team's highest vote-getter for MVP.
Cleveland Indians - The Indians will be the only team in baseball to get single-digit home runs from their combined first basemen.
Detroit Tigers - Everything will go wrong this year (it's already starting with Victor Martinez's surgery), and Detroit will finish second-to-last in the AL Central.
Kansas City Royals - The Royals will hit, but the rotation will crumble like a saltine in a blender. They'll try Wade Davis in the rotation. It'll work out well, and he'll be a sexy fantasy pick next year.
Minnesota Twins - The Twins will finish last in the division, but things will look up towards the end of the season as prospects acquit themselves well.
The "California" Angels - The Angels will break through and win the West going away, and two starting pitchers will receive votes for the Cy Young award, though neither will win. They'll lose in the World Series because Huston Street will be injured.
Houston Astros - Houston's record won't be any better than they were last year, but they'll be way more fun to watch. And by that I mean their bullpen will blow thirty saves, but they'll win half of those games anyways.
Oakland Athletics - Brett Lawrie will be exactly as uninspiring as he was in Toronto, except that even fewer of his hits will leave the yard due to the spacious Oakland Coliseum. The magic will be over, and the A's will fall behind the rest of the division, for one year anyways.
Seattle Mariners - Despite the large yard, the Mariners will be one of the top home run hitting teams in the AL. Nelson Cruz will mash.
Texas Rangers - The Rangers will never get going, and Adrian Beltre will be on a different team by the end of the year.
Atlanta Braves - Freddie Freeman will hit .280 with 20 HR again. That's not the bold part, though. The bold prediction is that people will actually realize that he's simply a serviceable first baseman, and not the masher that fantasy "experts" seem to think he is.
Miami Marlins - Jose Fernandez won't pitch for the Marlins this year.
New York Mets - The Mets will have three pitchers toss 175+ strikeouts, but still won't be able to hit a lick.
Philadelphia Phillies - Despite being in obvious "rebuilding" mode, the Phillies' starting pitchers will keep them in a lot of games, and they'll be competitive for the first third of the season. Then Cliff Lee, Aaron Harang, and Carlos Ruiz will be traded, and the Phillies will be "who we thought they were."
Washington Nationals - Despite a strong lineup and one of the best starting rotations in history, the Nationals will have problems winning close games. They'll reacquire Tyler Clippard for far more than they got when they traded him away. But they'll win the World Series, so it'll be worth it.
Chicago Cubs - Jon Lester will suck this year.
Cincinnati Reds - The wheels will fall off for Billy Hamilton, but Joey Votto will flourish again, and the Reds will compete for a Wild Card berth.
Milwaukee Brewers - Jean Segura and Ryan Braun will have bounce-back years, but the rotation isn't strong enough for the Brew Crew to be serious contenders.
Pittsburgh Pirates - Between batting position, playing time, and managerial support, Gregory Polanco will be given every opportunity to succeed...and he just won't.
St. Louis Cardinals - Jason Heyward won't have the explosion that everyone seems to think he'll have, nor will Kolten Wong evolve into much more than he was last year, but it won't matter; the Cardinals will still win the division.
Arizona Diamondbacks - The D'Backs starting pitchers will have the fewest total innings of any team in history, which obviously won't bode well for the season's outlook.
Colorado Rockies - The Rockies will have two 20-20 outfielders, but neither will be Carlos Gonzalez.
Los Angeles Dodgers - Kershaw and the gang will once again dominate on the mound, but without Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp, the team will struggle to score runs. No playoffs this year for the boys in blue.
San Diego Padres - Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers will all flourish in San Diego. The Padres, despite playing in massive Petco Park, will score in bunches and nab a Wild Card spot.
San Francisco Giants - Joe Panik will win the NL batting title.
Yeah, I decided to go with something memorable and bananas to finish, to give you guys an easy razz you can use anytime.
So this year, I'm going to make a bold prediction about each team, or a player on that team. Some will be bolder than others, naturally. But I'm posting this as a record for all to see, so that you may either laud my precognition or laugh at my foolishness come October.
AL East
Baltimore Orioles - Jonathan Schoop will hit 30 home runs, but he'll still have his name mispronounced regularly.
Boston Red Sox - All of the Red Sox' changes will appear to pay off from a statistical standpoint, but inexplicably won't be reflected in the win-loss columns. Boston will be out of the playoff mix by August.
New York Yankees - The Yankees will start off hot, and sometime before May 31st, there'll be a prominent story somewhere talking about how Derek Jeter was holding back the Yankees in his final years.
Tampa Bay Rays - Evan Longoria will the finest season of his career, but he won't be able to help the Rays stay out of last place.
Toronto Blue Jays - A Blue Jay will hit 50 home runs in 2015. I can't get more specific than that, but they have so much power in their lineup that someone is bound to go off.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox - Jose Abreu won't lead the team in home runs, but he will be the team's highest vote-getter for MVP.
Cleveland Indians - The Indians will be the only team in baseball to get single-digit home runs from their combined first basemen.
Detroit Tigers - Everything will go wrong this year (it's already starting with Victor Martinez's surgery), and Detroit will finish second-to-last in the AL Central.
Kansas City Royals - The Royals will hit, but the rotation will crumble like a saltine in a blender. They'll try Wade Davis in the rotation. It'll work out well, and he'll be a sexy fantasy pick next year.
Minnesota Twins - The Twins will finish last in the division, but things will look up towards the end of the season as prospects acquit themselves well.
AL West
The "California" Angels - The Angels will break through and win the West going away, and two starting pitchers will receive votes for the Cy Young award, though neither will win. They'll lose in the World Series because Huston Street will be injured.
Houston Astros - Houston's record won't be any better than they were last year, but they'll be way more fun to watch. And by that I mean their bullpen will blow thirty saves, but they'll win half of those games anyways.
Oakland Athletics - Brett Lawrie will be exactly as uninspiring as he was in Toronto, except that even fewer of his hits will leave the yard due to the spacious Oakland Coliseum. The magic will be over, and the A's will fall behind the rest of the division, for one year anyways.
Seattle Mariners - Despite the large yard, the Mariners will be one of the top home run hitting teams in the AL. Nelson Cruz will mash.
Texas Rangers - The Rangers will never get going, and Adrian Beltre will be on a different team by the end of the year.
NL East
Atlanta Braves - Freddie Freeman will hit .280 with 20 HR again. That's not the bold part, though. The bold prediction is that people will actually realize that he's simply a serviceable first baseman, and not the masher that fantasy "experts" seem to think he is.
Miami Marlins - Jose Fernandez won't pitch for the Marlins this year.
New York Mets - The Mets will have three pitchers toss 175+ strikeouts, but still won't be able to hit a lick.
Philadelphia Phillies - Despite being in obvious "rebuilding" mode, the Phillies' starting pitchers will keep them in a lot of games, and they'll be competitive for the first third of the season. Then Cliff Lee, Aaron Harang, and Carlos Ruiz will be traded, and the Phillies will be "who we thought they were."
Washington Nationals - Despite a strong lineup and one of the best starting rotations in history, the Nationals will have problems winning close games. They'll reacquire Tyler Clippard for far more than they got when they traded him away. But they'll win the World Series, so it'll be worth it.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs - Jon Lester will suck this year.
Cincinnati Reds - The wheels will fall off for Billy Hamilton, but Joey Votto will flourish again, and the Reds will compete for a Wild Card berth.
Milwaukee Brewers - Jean Segura and Ryan Braun will have bounce-back years, but the rotation isn't strong enough for the Brew Crew to be serious contenders.
Pittsburgh Pirates - Between batting position, playing time, and managerial support, Gregory Polanco will be given every opportunity to succeed...and he just won't.
St. Louis Cardinals - Jason Heyward won't have the explosion that everyone seems to think he'll have, nor will Kolten Wong evolve into much more than he was last year, but it won't matter; the Cardinals will still win the division.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks - The D'Backs starting pitchers will have the fewest total innings of any team in history, which obviously won't bode well for the season's outlook.
Colorado Rockies - The Rockies will have two 20-20 outfielders, but neither will be Carlos Gonzalez.
Los Angeles Dodgers - Kershaw and the gang will once again dominate on the mound, but without Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp, the team will struggle to score runs. No playoffs this year for the boys in blue.
San Diego Padres - Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers will all flourish in San Diego. The Padres, despite playing in massive Petco Park, will score in bunches and nab a Wild Card spot.
San Francisco Giants - Joe Panik will win the NL batting title.
Yeah, I decided to go with something memorable and bananas to finish, to give you guys an easy razz you can use anytime.
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Top 3 Skins (2013-2014) - P250, Dual Berettas, Desert Eagle
In the first leg of this journey, I looked at the three starting pistols in CS:GO. This time, I'll be looking at the three pistols that are always available to players for purchase, regardless of team or loadout: the P250, the Dual Berettas, and the big money pistol, the Desert Eagle.
That said, while it's an amazingly useful gun, the P250 doesn't have a whole lot of exciting skins. Here are the best of the bunch, but like I said, not that exciting.
The Supernova skin is one that I think actually looks better the less you look at it. At first glance, it's got a cool color scheme and sort of an interstellar vibe (hence the name). But when you really stare at it, to me, it doesn't hold up. The sharpness of a lot of it seems counter to the theme. It's still a fine-looking skin, just not as good as it maybe could have been.
The Nuclear Threat is probably the P250 skin I would want to use on a regular basis. While it's not as "attractive" as my #1 option, it's a bit more flashy in a smooth kind of way. It's also very distinguishable from the base option, which I do kind of like. Plus, Nuke is one of my favorite maps.
In a vacuum, Cartel is my favorite P250 skin. It's sharp, uses blacks and silvers and greys, and overall looks fairly realistic. As I said, I think I'd prefer to play with the Nuclear Threat. But the Cartel has all the aspects I like in a weapon skin.
It's basically the opposite of the P250 though, because there are several Beretta skins that I enjoy. None of them is a high-rarity skin, since the gun isn't widely used. But as someone who appreciates a level of subtlety, the Beretta skins are right in my wheelhouse.
The Panther skin is the essence of subtlety. Black guns with red highlights just to give it enough character to be unique, that's what I like. They look good in-game, too.
Black Limbas look a lot like the base Beretta skin, but with a bit more severity, a bit more of a "criminal underworld" hue. I like the base skin a lot, so I like these a lot, but I like these more. And if I'm being honest, I occasionally buy Berettas in casual games because using this skin makes me feel like an outlaw.
As much as I like the other skins I've mentioned, Retribution is easily my favorite weapon skin for the Dualies. When I was a kid, I played with a lot of G.I.Joe toys, and for some reason this skin reminds me of that. In addition to being a slick-looking skin, nostalgia puts it way over the top.
The skins for the Desert Eagle are all up and down the range. But because it's that "glamor" option, they tend to be a little higher on the rarity spectrum, which means they're often quite attractive. Plenty of good options, but here are my favorites.
I find myself swinging a lot with regards to how much I like the Crimson Web skin on the Desert Eagle. Sometimes it looks amazing, first-rate. Other times, it looks unassuming and unspectacular. The particular image of it above is more the latter, but it still looks alright. I'd like a little more of a "webby" look, and less of a "fractured earth" look, but it's still nice enough.
Conspiracy is exactly my kind of gun skin. Dark colors, highlighted by metallic accents. If the color scheme wasn't so close to the Pittsburgh Penguins' team colors, this might be my #1 skin. Alas, screw the Pens.
The Heirloom skin shares a lot of features with the Pilot skin from the Baggage Collection, so I excluded the Pilot from the list. No point in telling you I also like this other skin that looks like the one I just mentioned. Anyways, the Heirloom honestly looks the way I would expect a fancy base Deagle skin would look. I absolutely love it, and I'm glad I have my own version to use, even if I almost never use it.
P250
It's taken me a little while, but I've gotten to the point where I buy a P250 anytime I'm not buying a high-end rifle. It's low-cost, good rate and ammo and accuracy, and solid armor penetration, which is vital in those middle rounds when everybody's got armor.That said, while it's an amazingly useful gun, the P250 doesn't have a whole lot of exciting skins. Here are the best of the bunch, but like I said, not that exciting.
#3 - Supernova
The Supernova skin is one that I think actually looks better the less you look at it. At first glance, it's got a cool color scheme and sort of an interstellar vibe (hence the name). But when you really stare at it, to me, it doesn't hold up. The sharpness of a lot of it seems counter to the theme. It's still a fine-looking skin, just not as good as it maybe could have been.
#2 - Nuclear Threat
The Nuclear Threat is probably the P250 skin I would want to use on a regular basis. While it's not as "attractive" as my #1 option, it's a bit more flashy in a smooth kind of way. It's also very distinguishable from the base option, which I do kind of like. Plus, Nuke is one of my favorite maps.
#1 - Cartel
In a vacuum, Cartel is my favorite P250 skin. It's sharp, uses blacks and silvers and greys, and overall looks fairly realistic. As I said, I think I'd prefer to play with the Nuclear Threat. But the Cartel has all the aspects I like in a weapon skin.
Dual Berettas
I do not enjoy using the Dual Berettas. While I appreciate that they've got a lot of ammo, and the damage is okay, I just find that the accuracy isn't great and the accuracy "feel" is even worse. I remember in the original Counter-Strike I enjoyed the feeling of wielding two guns, but in here, with a better appreciation for how well (or poorly) I'm playing, it's less appealing.It's basically the opposite of the P250 though, because there are several Beretta skins that I enjoy. None of them is a high-rarity skin, since the gun isn't widely used. But as someone who appreciates a level of subtlety, the Beretta skins are right in my wheelhouse.
#3 - Panther
The Panther skin is the essence of subtlety. Black guns with red highlights just to give it enough character to be unique, that's what I like. They look good in-game, too.
#2 - Black Limba
Black Limbas look a lot like the base Beretta skin, but with a bit more severity, a bit more of a "criminal underworld" hue. I like the base skin a lot, so I like these a lot, but I like these more. And if I'm being honest, I occasionally buy Berettas in casual games because using this skin makes me feel like an outlaw.
#1 - Retribution
As much as I like the other skins I've mentioned, Retribution is easily my favorite weapon skin for the Dualies. When I was a kid, I played with a lot of G.I.Joe toys, and for some reason this skin reminds me of that. In addition to being a slick-looking skin, nostalgia puts it way over the top.
Desert Eagle
The Desert Eagle is the glamor pistol option. It's the most expensive and most powerful, but with its small clip, it's a high-risk, high-reward option. I hardly ever buy it myself, but if I come across one dropped in a pistol round or some such, I'll give it a whirl. I'll also occasionally buy it when my primary is a P90, to give myself a better option at range.The skins for the Desert Eagle are all up and down the range. But because it's that "glamor" option, they tend to be a little higher on the rarity spectrum, which means they're often quite attractive. Plenty of good options, but here are my favorites.
#3 - Crimson Web
I find myself swinging a lot with regards to how much I like the Crimson Web skin on the Desert Eagle. Sometimes it looks amazing, first-rate. Other times, it looks unassuming and unspectacular. The particular image of it above is more the latter, but it still looks alright. I'd like a little more of a "webby" look, and less of a "fractured earth" look, but it's still nice enough.
#2 - Conspiracy
Conspiracy is exactly my kind of gun skin. Dark colors, highlighted by metallic accents. If the color scheme wasn't so close to the Pittsburgh Penguins' team colors, this might be my #1 skin. Alas, screw the Pens.
#1 - Heirloom
The Heirloom skin shares a lot of features with the Pilot skin from the Baggage Collection, so I excluded the Pilot from the list. No point in telling you I also like this other skin that looks like the one I just mentioned. Anyways, the Heirloom honestly looks the way I would expect a fancy base Deagle skin would look. I absolutely love it, and I'm glad I have my own version to use, even if I almost never use it.
Thursday, January 22, 2015
Grammar Points - It's vs. Its
Grammar Points is going to be kind of a quick-hitter series that looks to address some common writing questions/difficulties that even accomplished writers can encounter. This first one is a doozy, and you'll find it handled incorrectly even by the most learned folks.
It's vs. Its
What's interesting about this is that the two words have such distinct definitions that, as long as you know what you're talking about, it's easy to use the right one. See? I just did.
It's
The word "it's," as you can see, is a contraction. You're combining two words ("it" and "is") into a single contracted word. The value in using the contraction over the individual words is that you don't sound like Data from Star Trek: The Next Generation. So unless you want to get used to randomly tilting your head and wearing a ton of white makeup, you'll find yourself using this contraction regularly when describing an action that an object is taking, or a state that an object is in. Some examples:
Your face doesn't look as pretty when it's covered in makeup.It's raining pretty hard out there.
Its
In contrast to the use of "it's," the use of "its" is solely to describe possession. The reason people get tripped up is that most of the time, when you type about someone owning something, you use an apostrophe followed by the letter "s." For example, "Joe's butt looks big in those pants."
(Joke's on you guys, my butt looks big in all pants).
By contrast, because of the way we use the "it's" contraction, the English language makes a special exception for the "apostrophe-s" rule. In order to demonstrate possession by something referred to as "it," we add the "s" but without the apostrophe. The rule actually exists to increase clarity in writing, which is kind of funny because of the confusion people have towards the words. But in truth, as long as you take the time to train yourself, you'll find that knowing the difference and being able to read and write the two words with confidence will help you immensely.
Once again, here are some examples:
(Joke's on you guys, my butt looks big in all pants).
By contrast, because of the way we use the "it's" contraction, the English language makes a special exception for the "apostrophe-s" rule. In order to demonstrate possession by something referred to as "it," we add the "s" but without the apostrophe. The rule actually exists to increase clarity in writing, which is kind of funny because of the confusion people have towards the words. But in truth, as long as you take the time to train yourself, you'll find that knowing the difference and being able to read and write the two words with confidence will help you immensely.
Once again, here are some examples:
A good deed is its own reward.
Your Corvette has lost its luster.
Tricks
Whenever possible, I'll provide you with a few tricks you can use when you're confused about word usage. This one isn't super easy, but it'll always get you the right answer, and that's at least as valuable. When you're unsure, try swapping in "it is" for the word you're using. If it works, you want to use "it's." If not, you're looking for "its."
If you run into a circumstance where you're just not sure, feel free to drop me a line in the comments. I'll take a look at it and let you know.
If you run into a circumstance where you're just not sure, feel free to drop me a line in the comments. I'll take a look at it and let you know.
Monday, January 19, 2015
Good Point Editing
If you've been keeping up with GoodPointJoe's blog posts, you know that on New Year's Day, I gave kind of a soft reveal on the fact that I've been working on getting an editing side business going. This is the "hard reveal," and I'll give you a little more information on my process.
I've been doing editing for friends and family for years, and my time as a technical support staff member at Westat put me into a position where I was constantly writing and reviewing emails, memos, manuals, instructions, and other content. That "wordwork" was actually the most rewarding part of my job, so lately I've been seeking out independent opportunities to exercise that skill set.
The most prominent project I've been working on is assisting a friend of a friend in developing his website, ALTInsider.com. It's a site about how to make the most of your life working as an Assistant Language Teacher (ALT) in Japan. I've worked with him for several hours, helping to clarify and refine his message, and I have a standing agreement to continue to offer reviews of new content that he produces.
I've also assisted other friends with smaller tasks, such as college homework assignments, blog posts, and professional letters. I enjoy the opportunity to help someone convey their intended message with the highest possible clarity and readability. Some have been free (usually family), some have been for a nominal fee.
But since I started doing this more regularly, I've been working on creating a framework for offering this kind of service to a broader audience. While continuing to take advantage of personal contacts, I'm hoping to find a way to offer my services to college students, small business owners, and other independent folks who could use a hand crafting their messages. If any of you reading this blog have a need of that kind of assistance, let me know! Friends and family always get a discount!
Since you guys are kind of behind the curtain, though, I'd love to hear any feedback on what I've got set up so far. The two key pages I have are my landing page and my request form. This is a situation where I actually want you to tell me everything that bothers you about either page. The landing page feels a little text-heavy, but I'm not sure what to cut, if anything. Your input is most welcome.
And as I said, your business is welcome here, too.
I've been doing editing for friends and family for years, and my time as a technical support staff member at Westat put me into a position where I was constantly writing and reviewing emails, memos, manuals, instructions, and other content. That "wordwork" was actually the most rewarding part of my job, so lately I've been seeking out independent opportunities to exercise that skill set.
The most prominent project I've been working on is assisting a friend of a friend in developing his website, ALTInsider.com. It's a site about how to make the most of your life working as an Assistant Language Teacher (ALT) in Japan. I've worked with him for several hours, helping to clarify and refine his message, and I have a standing agreement to continue to offer reviews of new content that he produces.
I've also assisted other friends with smaller tasks, such as college homework assignments, blog posts, and professional letters. I enjoy the opportunity to help someone convey their intended message with the highest possible clarity and readability. Some have been free (usually family), some have been for a nominal fee.
But since I started doing this more regularly, I've been working on creating a framework for offering this kind of service to a broader audience. While continuing to take advantage of personal contacts, I'm hoping to find a way to offer my services to college students, small business owners, and other independent folks who could use a hand crafting their messages. If any of you reading this blog have a need of that kind of assistance, let me know! Friends and family always get a discount!
Since you guys are kind of behind the curtain, though, I'd love to hear any feedback on what I've got set up so far. The two key pages I have are my landing page and my request form. This is a situation where I actually want you to tell me everything that bothers you about either page. The landing page feels a little text-heavy, but I'm not sure what to cut, if anything. Your input is most welcome.
And as I said, your business is welcome here, too.
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Top 3 Skins (2013-2014) - P2000, USP-S, Glock-18
When Counter-Strike:Global Offensive was originally released, I was mildly interested. I had played the original Half-Life mod and enjoyed it somewhat, but I wasn't really any good at it. It was more, I appreciated the concept, and how it would be fun if engaged in with teammates and opponents of equal skill. I had occasionally read updates on CS:GO, and noted that it included a matchmaking mechanism that would theoretically set you up to play in games with people of similar skill. Still, I didn't rush to grab the game.
Then I heard about their skin system, and how some items were worth a considerable amount of money on the Steam Market, and I was all-in.
Now, while I still have a large number of small investments, and a number of mildly valuable skins (mostly less than a dollar apiece), I've bought into the whole concept of skins, and I find myself comparing new skins to previous ones on a basis of "coolness" rather than simply on investment potential.
In that vein, I'd like to now present the first in a series (yes, another series, relax jerk) of posts sharing my favorite gun skins from the beginning of their implementation in CS:GO through the end of 2014. The final collection included here would be the Vanguard Collection; the Chroma Collection (which looks solid though unspectacular) would be included in some future review.
This post will focus on the three starting pistols: the P2000 and USP-S (counter-terrorist team), and the Glock-18 (terrorist team).
The P2000 is a solid option as a starting pistol. It's got a fairly large clip with good damage. It doesn't have much armor penetration, but neither do any of the other starting pistols. That's why you buy P250s, obviously.
The P2000 hasn't gotten many flashy skins thus far, but in truth, I appreciate subtlety as much as anybody when it comes to skins. So I still enjoy the P2000 options as much as most guns.
The Fire Elemental is from the most newly released weapon case (Operation Vanguard), and is probably the flashiest P2000 skin available. Part of my appreciation for the gun probably comes from my years of playing fantasy RPGs, and having fond recollections of fire elementals in a variety of circumstances. Still, it's a nice, bold skin.
Pulse is the kind of skin I enjoy almost unequivocally. Dark colors, sharp edges, a kind of electronic vibe. It's also not a high level skin, so chances are I'll grab one for myself at some point. For now, though, I've got way too many of my #1 skin to justify spending more money on P2000 skins.
The Amber Fade doesn't look that exceptional in the market, but in-game, it feels like you're the man with the golden gun. It's from the Dust 2 Collection, which many investors including myself believed would be discontinued this past autumn with the new operation. Instead, the collection was made more available, so my stock of Amber Fade P2000s became less valuable. It's bounced back a bit, but it'll probably be a while before I can get my money back on these guys. In the meantime, though, sweet skin.
The USP-S was added after the game had been around for a little while (along with the M4A1-S) to give counter-terrorists a few additional gun options. It doesn't have as much ammo as the P2000, so it's better for more accurate players (read: not me). But it's already got several attractive skins, including one of my "wishlist" skins at #1.
It also sounds amazing when you take off the silencer. Functionally it's worse in every way, but the sound, wowie.
Stainless is a simple, classy skin. It looks how a real-life version of the gun might look, which I enjoy. It's just got a nice clean look, definitely one of my favorites.
The Baggage Collection is full of quirky skins, and Business Class is one of the best. The skin really makes you believe in the altered texture of the gun, thinking that if you were to touch it, it would feel leathery, or soft like suede. A definite win.
The USP-S | Orion can actually no longer be pulled from the Huntsman Case. The original submitter of the skin had apparently stolen artwork on another skin, and as such got all of their skins removed from the case (six skins all told). But art theft aside, the Orion is a beautiful gun skin. It's got the dark, sharp colors I love, and possibly some subconscious Orioles magic in there as well. Orion, Orioles...can't be coincidence, right?
The Glock is the default terrorist pistol, and by far my least favorite of the three. I feel like I have no control over the Glock, even though I've seen videos displaying how it can be pretty accurate even when running. It also, for my money, has some of the weaker skin options. There are a few solid ones, but none of these top three would make either of my other two lists. Still, there is a noteworthy skin at #2, one worth talking (and reading) about.
This is a skin that looks a fair amount better in-game, actually. The fissures aren't quite so pronounced, and it looks more textured, less broken. This is another skin I think I'd like to own at some point.
The Glock-18 | Fade is one of the most famous skins in all of CS:GO. It was a top-rarity skin in the first group of skins released into the game, and its desirability and rarity make it one of the most expensive non-StatTrak guns in the Steam market. Personally, I think the style is pretty good, but not as amazing as others do. Still, among a fairly weak class, the Fade is a strong Glock skin.
Introducing one of my favorite collections, the Cache Collection. Almost every skin in this set is appealing to me, and it tops off with restricted-level skins for the two cheap assault rifles, the Galil and FAMAS. And anyone who knows me knows I love me some Galil. The Reactor is a fine skin as well, a bit more subtle than some of the other options. I like the black base with the nuclear-feeling orange on top. Quite a solid skin.
That'll do it for the first round of reviews. Tune in next time when I get to some of the other pistol options, including a couple of market movers.
Then I heard about their skin system, and how some items were worth a considerable amount of money on the Steam Market, and I was all-in.
Now, while I still have a large number of small investments, and a number of mildly valuable skins (mostly less than a dollar apiece), I've bought into the whole concept of skins, and I find myself comparing new skins to previous ones on a basis of "coolness" rather than simply on investment potential.
In that vein, I'd like to now present the first in a series (yes, another series, relax jerk) of posts sharing my favorite gun skins from the beginning of their implementation in CS:GO through the end of 2014. The final collection included here would be the Vanguard Collection; the Chroma Collection (which looks solid though unspectacular) would be included in some future review.
This post will focus on the three starting pistols: the P2000 and USP-S (counter-terrorist team), and the Glock-18 (terrorist team).
P2000
The P2000 is a solid option as a starting pistol. It's got a fairly large clip with good damage. It doesn't have much armor penetration, but neither do any of the other starting pistols. That's why you buy P250s, obviously.
The P2000 hasn't gotten many flashy skins thus far, but in truth, I appreciate subtlety as much as anybody when it comes to skins. So I still enjoy the P2000 options as much as most guns.
#3 - Fire Elemental
The Fire Elemental is from the most newly released weapon case (Operation Vanguard), and is probably the flashiest P2000 skin available. Part of my appreciation for the gun probably comes from my years of playing fantasy RPGs, and having fond recollections of fire elementals in a variety of circumstances. Still, it's a nice, bold skin.
#2 - Pulse
Pulse is the kind of skin I enjoy almost unequivocally. Dark colors, sharp edges, a kind of electronic vibe. It's also not a high level skin, so chances are I'll grab one for myself at some point. For now, though, I've got way too many of my #1 skin to justify spending more money on P2000 skins.
#1 - Amber Fade
The Amber Fade doesn't look that exceptional in the market, but in-game, it feels like you're the man with the golden gun. It's from the Dust 2 Collection, which many investors including myself believed would be discontinued this past autumn with the new operation. Instead, the collection was made more available, so my stock of Amber Fade P2000s became less valuable. It's bounced back a bit, but it'll probably be a while before I can get my money back on these guys. In the meantime, though, sweet skin.
USP-S
The USP-S was added after the game had been around for a little while (along with the M4A1-S) to give counter-terrorists a few additional gun options. It doesn't have as much ammo as the P2000, so it's better for more accurate players (read: not me). But it's already got several attractive skins, including one of my "wishlist" skins at #1.
It also sounds amazing when you take off the silencer. Functionally it's worse in every way, but the sound, wowie.
#3 - Stainless
Stainless is a simple, classy skin. It looks how a real-life version of the gun might look, which I enjoy. It's just got a nice clean look, definitely one of my favorites.
#2 - Business Class
The Baggage Collection is full of quirky skins, and Business Class is one of the best. The skin really makes you believe in the altered texture of the gun, thinking that if you were to touch it, it would feel leathery, or soft like suede. A definite win.
#1 - Orion
The USP-S | Orion can actually no longer be pulled from the Huntsman Case. The original submitter of the skin had apparently stolen artwork on another skin, and as such got all of their skins removed from the case (six skins all told). But art theft aside, the Orion is a beautiful gun skin. It's got the dark, sharp colors I love, and possibly some subconscious Orioles magic in there as well. Orion, Orioles...can't be coincidence, right?
Glock-18
The Glock is the default terrorist pistol, and by far my least favorite of the three. I feel like I have no control over the Glock, even though I've seen videos displaying how it can be pretty accurate even when running. It also, for my money, has some of the weaker skin options. There are a few solid ones, but none of these top three would make either of my other two lists. Still, there is a noteworthy skin at #2, one worth talking (and reading) about.
#3 - Blue Fissure
This is a skin that looks a fair amount better in-game, actually. The fissures aren't quite so pronounced, and it looks more textured, less broken. This is another skin I think I'd like to own at some point.
#2 - Fade
The Glock-18 | Fade is one of the most famous skins in all of CS:GO. It was a top-rarity skin in the first group of skins released into the game, and its desirability and rarity make it one of the most expensive non-StatTrak guns in the Steam market. Personally, I think the style is pretty good, but not as amazing as others do. Still, among a fairly weak class, the Fade is a strong Glock skin.
#1 - Reactor
Introducing one of my favorite collections, the Cache Collection. Almost every skin in this set is appealing to me, and it tops off with restricted-level skins for the two cheap assault rifles, the Galil and FAMAS. And anyone who knows me knows I love me some Galil. The Reactor is a fine skin as well, a bit more subtle than some of the other options. I like the black base with the nuclear-feeling orange on top. Quite a solid skin.
That'll do it for the first round of reviews. Tune in next time when I get to some of the other pistol options, including a couple of market movers.
Saturday, January 10, 2015
Brian Giles Deserved Better
First things first, I don't think Brian Giles is a Hall of Famer. I don't think you'd find many people who think he is. He was a really good player for about ten years on a couple of obscure teams, and he was a fantasy STUD in the old Sandbox system that rewarded players for drawing walks. He wasn't an all-time great, which is the designation that someone should have if they're getting named to the Hall of Fame.
That said, Giles was way better than Hall voters apparently think he was.
Earlier this week, the 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot results were revealed, and Brian Giles received a whopping zero votes. Among the players who received at least one vote:
I will grant certain factors. Giles' power peak only lasted about five years, and he played in an era with inflated power numbers across the board, so his career-high of 39 home runs doesn't play as well as it might in today's game. And he wasn't particularly fast either, notching only 109 steals over a career that spanned more than 1,800 games.
But Giles was a consistent force at the plate. In eight different seasons, his on-base percentage was .396 or higher; Giles ended two out of every five plate appearances with a positive result. His career on-base percentage is .3998, lower than only four players: Joey Votto, Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, and Joe Mauer. Those are two likely Hall of Fame caliber players (Manny and Pujols), and two guys who should find themselves at least in the conversation if their next eight years go like their last eight years went. He consistently threatened .300, hitting at least .298 in seven different seasons.
He played in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and San Diego, so his media exposure was limited, as were his postseason opportunities. And the numbers suggest he was a below-average fielder. But in a world where you just know, you just know that Kevin Youkilis is going to get a couple of HoF votes, Giles deserved better than he got.
That said, Giles was way better than Hall voters apparently think he was.
Earlier this week, the 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot results were revealed, and Brian Giles received a whopping zero votes. Among the players who received at least one vote:
- Tom Gordon, whose claim to fame is having led the league in saves once, and being a pretty good reliever sometimes;
- Troy Percival, a solid closer who pitched for the champion Angels in 2002; and
- Aaron Boone, a career .263 hitter who had that one big home run.
I will grant certain factors. Giles' power peak only lasted about five years, and he played in an era with inflated power numbers across the board, so his career-high of 39 home runs doesn't play as well as it might in today's game. And he wasn't particularly fast either, notching only 109 steals over a career that spanned more than 1,800 games.
But Giles was a consistent force at the plate. In eight different seasons, his on-base percentage was .396 or higher; Giles ended two out of every five plate appearances with a positive result. His career on-base percentage is .3998, lower than only four players: Joey Votto, Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, and Joe Mauer. Those are two likely Hall of Fame caliber players (Manny and Pujols), and two guys who should find themselves at least in the conversation if their next eight years go like their last eight years went. He consistently threatened .300, hitting at least .298 in seven different seasons.
He played in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and San Diego, so his media exposure was limited, as were his postseason opportunities. And the numbers suggest he was a below-average fielder. But in a world where you just know, you just know that Kevin Youkilis is going to get a couple of HoF votes, Giles deserved better than he got.
Monday, January 5, 2015
Awesome Games Done Quick - The Best of Twitch
GamesDoneQuick is an organization of video game speedrunners. Speedrunners are players who attempt to take advantage of every possible shortcut, tactic, or nuance of a game to complete it in as short a period as possible. They're basically the sprinters of the eSports world.
Every winter and summer for the past few years, they've put on a charity stream on Twitch, and they're in the middle of that right now. This stream highlights some of the more popular speedrunners in the community, but also extends an invitation to anyone in the speedrunning community to establish themselves as an elite player, make the trip out to wherever the event is (this time it's in Virginia), and join the stream as a participant or fan.
This event is remarkable for several reasons.
1. AGDQ is an event that features small-time streamers and relative nobodies. Unlike the championships of competitive games like Counter-Strike:Global Offensive or Dota 2, AGDQ doesn't have the same huge, single-game community to generate competitive interest. The very best speedrunners are appreciated mostly by other speedrunners, or fans of a particular game. That is, the best Contra speedrunners will attract mostly fans of Contra, and other people who speedrun Contra or similar games. Yet despite these smaller fan bases, AGDQ will regularly have around 100,000 concurrent viewers, and generate hundreds of thousands of dollars in charity. With virtually zero starpower, that's incredible.
2. Related to that factor, the stream succeeds despite changing games constantly. Most streams succeed because of consistency. They feature the same streamer streaming the same game for several hours, several times a week. This marathon stream, however, will include Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, Streets of Rage 2, Pilotwings 64, and Halo 2. And it's a fair bet that a lot of the same people will be watching each of those speedruns. The nature of the speedrunning community is such that they enjoy all attempts to attack world records and display virtuosity. And somehow, random viewers hold similar priorities.
3. The stream generates an ass-load of money for charity. Look, everyone likes charity. We all like the idea of pitching in to help combat a disease, or clean water, or assist the less fortunate. But most of us, on a given day, do not contribute to charity. Then, along comes this stream, and people give donations of $50, $100, or $10,000 dollars (this legitimately happens). Lots of people try to generate money for charity while playing video games, and many of them use Twitch streams to do this. But success to this level is incredible.
4. The streams aren't really "competitive" streams. Rather, they're solo or cooperative streams against each game's innate artificial intelligence. Far and away the most watched game on Twitch is League of Legends. The rest of the top four are usually (in some order) CS:GO, Dota 2, and Hearthstone. Competitive games are what draw the most water on streams, but AGDQ has no trouble pulling amazing numbers despite staying in the realm of single-player or competitive games. This might be the most impressive factor here; nobody cares about time trials when it comes to track and field, or swimming, or stock car racing. It's all about the races. Granted, there are a few races on AGDQ as well, but people appreciate both kinds of content just the same.
Despite these factors going against them, AGDQ is able to regularly produce a wildly entertaining stream that generates massive revenue for a good cause. If you've got the time and the inclination, I strongly encourage you to check out the stream (link here again for ease of access). And marvel at the beauty that is a speedrunner's paradise.
Every winter and summer for the past few years, they've put on a charity stream on Twitch, and they're in the middle of that right now. This stream highlights some of the more popular speedrunners in the community, but also extends an invitation to anyone in the speedrunning community to establish themselves as an elite player, make the trip out to wherever the event is (this time it's in Virginia), and join the stream as a participant or fan.
This event is remarkable for several reasons.
1. AGDQ is an event that features small-time streamers and relative nobodies. Unlike the championships of competitive games like Counter-Strike:Global Offensive or Dota 2, AGDQ doesn't have the same huge, single-game community to generate competitive interest. The very best speedrunners are appreciated mostly by other speedrunners, or fans of a particular game. That is, the best Contra speedrunners will attract mostly fans of Contra, and other people who speedrun Contra or similar games. Yet despite these smaller fan bases, AGDQ will regularly have around 100,000 concurrent viewers, and generate hundreds of thousands of dollars in charity. With virtually zero starpower, that's incredible.
2. Related to that factor, the stream succeeds despite changing games constantly. Most streams succeed because of consistency. They feature the same streamer streaming the same game for several hours, several times a week. This marathon stream, however, will include Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, Streets of Rage 2, Pilotwings 64, and Halo 2. And it's a fair bet that a lot of the same people will be watching each of those speedruns. The nature of the speedrunning community is such that they enjoy all attempts to attack world records and display virtuosity. And somehow, random viewers hold similar priorities.
3. The stream generates an ass-load of money for charity. Look, everyone likes charity. We all like the idea of pitching in to help combat a disease, or clean water, or assist the less fortunate. But most of us, on a given day, do not contribute to charity. Then, along comes this stream, and people give donations of $50, $100, or $10,000 dollars (this legitimately happens). Lots of people try to generate money for charity while playing video games, and many of them use Twitch streams to do this. But success to this level is incredible.
4. The streams aren't really "competitive" streams. Rather, they're solo or cooperative streams against each game's innate artificial intelligence. Far and away the most watched game on Twitch is League of Legends. The rest of the top four are usually (in some order) CS:GO, Dota 2, and Hearthstone. Competitive games are what draw the most water on streams, but AGDQ has no trouble pulling amazing numbers despite staying in the realm of single-player or competitive games. This might be the most impressive factor here; nobody cares about time trials when it comes to track and field, or swimming, or stock car racing. It's all about the races. Granted, there are a few races on AGDQ as well, but people appreciate both kinds of content just the same.
Despite these factors going against them, AGDQ is able to regularly produce a wildly entertaining stream that generates massive revenue for a good cause. If you've got the time and the inclination, I strongly encourage you to check out the stream (link here again for ease of access). And marvel at the beauty that is a speedrunner's paradise.
Friday, January 2, 2015
The 2015 Winter Classic
Coming into this Washington Capitals season, I was optimistic about the team's chances to make some noise, but I didn't really plan on going to the Winter Classic. My family has season tickets, so we were awarded two tickets as part of the season ticket package, and afforded the opportunity to buy up to 4 more (double the number of our season tickets), but to me, it seemed foolish to spend that money. Ticket resale was high, so I figured, why not just resell the tickets and make a little cash?
Well, time passed and time passed, and none of us made the call on what to do with the tickets. My one brother was adamant about going, and the other was interested if not quite so demanding. We had three pairs of tickets available, and the decision on what to do with them went unmade for far too long. Finally about two weeks ago, we finalized our plans: my cousin and I would join my two brothers at the game, and we'd sell the final pair. We ended up getting back a little extra for the pair, though it wasn't the windfall I had originally hoped for. Still, positive is better than negative.
And so, the four of us went to the game.
I remember going to Disney World for the first time, and that being the most "magical" experience I can remember. But there was something even more special about this experience for me.
There's a great camaraderie at any sporting event, but the Winter Classic felt like it reached a whole different level. I felt excited while walking up to Nationals Stadium with hundreds of other fans, enthralled while stepping to the railing in center field and seeing the scene, and a combination of frustrated and pleased while trying to navigate through a sea of thousands of fans in the concourse. The singing of the national anthem was done by an armed forces chorus, punctuated by a flyover by a pair of fighter jets, and that was probably the height of the non-hockey events for me. Just a really cool presentation.
The seats we had were center ice, though they were fairly low, which made it difficult to see all of the action. The big screen in center field provided a good view of the game when things got too muddled, but it was fantastic to see things play out on the ice level when I was able.
And the game was amazing. Eric Fehr's early goal on a breakaway was reminiscent of his similar goal at the Winter Classic in Pittsburgh. After Chicago tied the game at 2 in the second period, tensions were high throughout the stadium. Every penalty (and most of them were against the Capitals) created a chance for someone to break through, but the score remained tied through most of the third.
Late in the third, Matt Niskanen got called for a questionable boarding penalty, then a few minutes later, perhaps as a make-up call (which I hate, by the way), Jonathan Toews got called for something of a phantom hooking penalty. On the ensuing penalty, after Alex Ovechkin carried the puck into the zone...
...well, you really just have to watch it.
The crowd exploded after the goal, reminding me of playoff goals back when the Caps scored those kinds of goals. I also just love everything about how Ovechkin carried himself throughout the whole day. He was grinning almost every minute, and he pumped up his guys on every play.
The thing that struck me the most was that, for the first time since he got the letter sewn on his jersey, he really looked like a captain. Not a captain in the snarky, dickish way that some guys can be, but a guy who leads by playing his ass off and getting his teammates excited to compete for 60+ minutes. He may never get recognized as one of the great leaders in hockey, and maybe that's correct, but there's no doubt in my mind that Barry Trotz has helped Ovechkin to rediscover himself, and be a better version of himself.
I can't help it. I'm optimistic. This might be a really good year.
Well, time passed and time passed, and none of us made the call on what to do with the tickets. My one brother was adamant about going, and the other was interested if not quite so demanding. We had three pairs of tickets available, and the decision on what to do with them went unmade for far too long. Finally about two weeks ago, we finalized our plans: my cousin and I would join my two brothers at the game, and we'd sell the final pair. We ended up getting back a little extra for the pair, though it wasn't the windfall I had originally hoped for. Still, positive is better than negative.
And so, the four of us went to the game.
I remember going to Disney World for the first time, and that being the most "magical" experience I can remember. But there was something even more special about this experience for me.
There's a great camaraderie at any sporting event, but the Winter Classic felt like it reached a whole different level. I felt excited while walking up to Nationals Stadium with hundreds of other fans, enthralled while stepping to the railing in center field and seeing the scene, and a combination of frustrated and pleased while trying to navigate through a sea of thousands of fans in the concourse. The singing of the national anthem was done by an armed forces chorus, punctuated by a flyover by a pair of fighter jets, and that was probably the height of the non-hockey events for me. Just a really cool presentation.
The seats we had were center ice, though they were fairly low, which made it difficult to see all of the action. The big screen in center field provided a good view of the game when things got too muddled, but it was fantastic to see things play out on the ice level when I was able.
And the game was amazing. Eric Fehr's early goal on a breakaway was reminiscent of his similar goal at the Winter Classic in Pittsburgh. After Chicago tied the game at 2 in the second period, tensions were high throughout the stadium. Every penalty (and most of them were against the Capitals) created a chance for someone to break through, but the score remained tied through most of the third.
Late in the third, Matt Niskanen got called for a questionable boarding penalty, then a few minutes later, perhaps as a make-up call (which I hate, by the way), Jonathan Toews got called for something of a phantom hooking penalty. On the ensuing penalty, after Alex Ovechkin carried the puck into the zone...
...well, you really just have to watch it.
The crowd exploded after the goal, reminding me of playoff goals back when the Caps scored those kinds of goals. I also just love everything about how Ovechkin carried himself throughout the whole day. He was grinning almost every minute, and he pumped up his guys on every play.
The thing that struck me the most was that, for the first time since he got the letter sewn on his jersey, he really looked like a captain. Not a captain in the snarky, dickish way that some guys can be, but a guy who leads by playing his ass off and getting his teammates excited to compete for 60+ minutes. He may never get recognized as one of the great leaders in hockey, and maybe that's correct, but there's no doubt in my mind that Barry Trotz has helped Ovechkin to rediscover himself, and be a better version of himself.
I can't help it. I'm optimistic. This might be a really good year.
Thursday, January 1, 2015
2015 - The Year of the Blog
Longtime blog-readers will know that 2014 was a pretty solid year for this blog. While it wasn't as prolific as some years, I feel like I provided some of my best content overall in 2014. Between some standard sports posts, a few new feature-style sports posts, and a variety of gaming-related articles, I generated something for everyone. Alright, well, not everyone, but anybody who would've come to the blog in the first place should have been able to find something fun to read.
Still, when it comes down to it, I had higher hopes for the blog than the totality of the year that I had. I wanted to expand the features to include not just baseball stories, but interesting tales from other sports as well. And just on sheer volume, there were extended periods during which I didn't provide any content, and I don't feel great about that.
But, rather than lament about opportunities lost, I'm going to set goals for the coming year. Most of these will be blog-related goals, but I'm going to throw a few other goals up there, just so you know what I've got brewing in my mind, and so that I feel a little more beholden to the goals, since "everyone" will know about them.
Here goes.
If you've got any suggestions or naysaying you'd like to offer, feel free to post a comment.
Happy new year!
Still, when it comes down to it, I had higher hopes for the blog than the totality of the year that I had. I wanted to expand the features to include not just baseball stories, but interesting tales from other sports as well. And just on sheer volume, there were extended periods during which I didn't provide any content, and I don't feel great about that.
But, rather than lament about opportunities lost, I'm going to set goals for the coming year. Most of these will be blog-related goals, but I'm going to throw a few other goals up there, just so you know what I've got brewing in my mind, and so that I feel a little more beholden to the goals, since "everyone" will know about them.
Here goes.
- Publish a blog post at least once every week. There's really no reason I couldn't do this; there have been stretches on the blog when I've posted 2-3 times a week for over a month. Part of what hangs me up is that a lot of my blog ideas are larger posts; the CS:GO trade-up post took me over a month to compose and revise. So, this goal is going to have a couple of sub-goals:
- Plan ahead. Have a couple of larger posts in the pot simmering at all times, and try to schedule posts in advance
- Find smaller post options. Not everything has to be a six page epic about the adventures of Bret Saberhagen. Some of them, sure, just not all of them.
- Post about the big three at least once a month. My big three topics are sports (baseball), sports (non-baseball), and gaming (board or video). This plan should help me get focused on my bigger posts, and also help give myself some direction for goal #1.
- Get my editing landing page refined and ready to share. Most of you are probably unaware this has been going on in the background, but I've been spending some time trying to set myself up to offer editing services. I've been editing for a website for a few months, and editing for friends, family, and co-workers for years. I'm hoping to turn those skills into a small supplemental income. So as the main part of that, I've been working on a landing page to be able to link for potential customers. My goal is to have that up and running by the end of January.
- Stream more (or at all). Longtime readers will know that a previous role of this blog was to support a regular Friday night Twitch stream by myself and two friends. We streamed mostly Magic, and we generated a small but robust following. Problems with Twitch, changes in our personal responsibilities, a general displeasure with Magic's recent sets, and MTGO's consistent bugs and other issues made us mostly give up the streaming game, but almost any time I've streamed solo, I've still enjoyed it. Whenever I set out to stream again I seem to get distracted from it, but hopefully establishing it as a goal will get me back on the horse. And of course, I'll continue to use this blog to support the stream, when necessary.
- If possible, find ways to monetize the blog that also add value to it. I have an affiliate partnership with Amazon.com, and Amazon has thousands of ways to link to their goods and services. Right now I just have a single banner advertising Amazon Prime, but I'm thinking that with sufficient commitment, I may be able to post timely advertisements of great deals to both provide a useful deal-finding service to readers, and create a small amount of income for myself. I'm sure there are other ways to effectively monetize the blog, but those will take some further research.
- Post something in the Steam Workshop. There are two possible avenues I could use here. The first is posting a CS:GO skin. I've tinkered with the workbench a little bit, and while I'm no expert, I'm definitely more comfortable with it than I was at the outset. I haven't made anything too exciting so far, but I've got some more content to work with, so we'll see if it goes anywhere.
The second possibility is posting a collection on Tabletop Simulator, a recent gift I received (thanks Nick). I've collected a few items and boards from other workshop posts, and I'd like to assemble a kind of "catch-all" collection for a certain tabletop role-playing game I've played with a few friends. (Nerd alert! Just kidding, you knew I was a nerd when I started posting Magic decks.)
If you've got any suggestions or naysaying you'd like to offer, feel free to post a comment.
Happy new year!
Thursday, December 11, 2014
Magic Deck Review - Landfall and Fling (RG), First Pass
As some of you (probably most of you) will remember, I posted not too long ago regarding the first homebrew deck I wanted to retool. It was a Red and Green deck focusing mostly on Landfall boosts, and using Fling to snipe problem creatures or finish off opponents. In case you don't remember, the full deck is here.
Well, I got a bit of feedback in various mediums, and I've got some possibilities as far as additions/replacements for the deck. Here are the brainstorms I received (not Brainstorms)...
Titania, Protector of Argoth - The biggest (and most expensive) possible addition is Titania. She's a big creature with a distinct lean towards land action. Specifically, she makes Evolving Wilds and Harrow absolute monsters. It's a fairly expensive card though ($6.75 average price on TCGPlayer), so it may not be in the cards...pun intended.
Groundswell - I'm pretty sure I have a couple of these in my vast collection. Although truthfully, if I do, I'm not sure why I wouldn't have included them in the first place. They're simple Giant Growth-type cards, but obviously they fit nicely with the deck's theme.
Gatecreeper Vine - This is a card that probably wouldn't make the cut. It's a perfectly fine card, but it doesn't really solve our creature problem, and we've already got plenty of fixing in the deck.
Vinelasher Kudzu - I like a few things about this card. First, it's a creature, which as I said was something this deck is looking for. Second, it's a low drop. This deck spends a lot of time with lands that have entered the battlefield tapped, so having a minimal mana cost is important. And third, obviously, it benefits a lot from all the land drops this deck offers. Should be less than a dollar to acquire as well, so wins all around.
Rampaging Baloths - Baloths is a card that fits with the deck's style, but isn't as clever or exciting as some of the other cards I've mentioned. That said, while it's deliberate, it certainly gets work done. I'm not sure it's considerably better than Baloth Woodcrasher based on how the deck hopes to win, but I'm open to including maybe a one-off of RB.
Scute Mob - I feel like Scute Mob is maybe a card that helps you out when you don't have the action cards like Harrow or Baloth Woodcrasher to make the magic happen. Kind of like an insurance policy for the Landfall blasts. I do have one copy of Scute Mob in one of my other decks, so maybe I'll transition it over to this one.
What do you guys think of the cards I've mentioned? Anything else come to mind? Leave it in the comments below!
Well, I got a bit of feedback in various mediums, and I've got some possibilities as far as additions/replacements for the deck. Here are the brainstorms I received (not Brainstorms)...
Titania, Protector of Argoth - The biggest (and most expensive) possible addition is Titania. She's a big creature with a distinct lean towards land action. Specifically, she makes Evolving Wilds and Harrow absolute monsters. It's a fairly expensive card though ($6.75 average price on TCGPlayer), so it may not be in the cards...pun intended.
Groundswell - I'm pretty sure I have a couple of these in my vast collection. Although truthfully, if I do, I'm not sure why I wouldn't have included them in the first place. They're simple Giant Growth-type cards, but obviously they fit nicely with the deck's theme.
Gatecreeper Vine - This is a card that probably wouldn't make the cut. It's a perfectly fine card, but it doesn't really solve our creature problem, and we've already got plenty of fixing in the deck.
Vinelasher Kudzu - I like a few things about this card. First, it's a creature, which as I said was something this deck is looking for. Second, it's a low drop. This deck spends a lot of time with lands that have entered the battlefield tapped, so having a minimal mana cost is important. And third, obviously, it benefits a lot from all the land drops this deck offers. Should be less than a dollar to acquire as well, so wins all around.
Rampaging Baloths - Baloths is a card that fits with the deck's style, but isn't as clever or exciting as some of the other cards I've mentioned. That said, while it's deliberate, it certainly gets work done. I'm not sure it's considerably better than Baloth Woodcrasher based on how the deck hopes to win, but I'm open to including maybe a one-off of RB.
Scute Mob - I feel like Scute Mob is maybe a card that helps you out when you don't have the action cards like Harrow or Baloth Woodcrasher to make the magic happen. Kind of like an insurance policy for the Landfall blasts. I do have one copy of Scute Mob in one of my other decks, so maybe I'll transition it over to this one.
What do you guys think of the cards I've mentioned? Anything else come to mind? Leave it in the comments below!
Friday, December 5, 2014
The Buggy Old Republic
Overall, I've been fine with the game quality of Star Wars: The Old Republic. It does definitely seem to be a little laggy at times; sometimes an ability will finish channeling on the server well before it shows on my end, or I'll miss an interrupt that it doesn't look like I should've missed. But all told, while it's not as crisp as World of Warcraft, the combat is fairly stable.
The video rendering can be a little twisty, though. Here are a few screenshots from my time in The Old Republic that I found pretty funny. None of them created a quest issue for me, so I could appreciate them as simple video quirks.
I've got one more image for you. It's not an issue with the video loading slowly or improperly, though. It's just a funny little design choice that I appreciate...even though I'm not a big fan of Johnnie Walker:
Apparently folks on Tattooine enjoy their scotch.
The video rendering can be a little twisty, though. Here are a few screenshots from my time in The Old Republic that I found pretty funny. None of them created a quest issue for me, so I could appreciate them as simple video quirks.
I've got one more image for you. It's not an issue with the video loading slowly or improperly, though. It's just a funny little design choice that I appreciate...even though I'm not a big fan of Johnnie Walker:
Apparently folks on Tattooine enjoy their scotch.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Trade String - Bartolo Colon
Note: This post uses links from baseball-reference.com. I'm still not pleased with their advertising system, as it still punishes your entire computer if you even just keep a browser window open for too long, or try to open more than one window from the site. I just wanted to provide links to some older players, and that's more easily done through Baseball Reference than through other sites.
I've always been fascinated with trades. When I was a kid, I used to trade baseball cards, not really knowing anything about their values, just swapping this guy for that guy. I remember trading a lot of nobody players (mostly non-Orioles to get Orioles), but I also remember doing trades involving cards of Gary Sheffield, Nolan Ryan, and for some reason Gregg Jefferies.
My love of trades has continued into adulthood, moving from sports cards to fantasy players, Steam games, and whatever else I've got in my life, physical or digital. When I moved back to the area from college, I remember I traded my desk, a microwave, and a bookshelf for a PS2 console, a couple accessories, and some PS2 and N64 games. I was pleased, the other guy was pleased, it was a great experience. And my interest in bartering grew.
I've also always been interested in trades that real-life sports teams make. When I was little, I remember writing a letter to the Baltimore Orioles (I don't know if I wrote it to someone in particular), listing out a number of players I thought they should trade for. I don't know if the letter ever got mailed or read, but I don't think I ever got a response. I still believe they should've traded for Julio Franco. I'll believe that 'til the day I die.
Anyways, all of this is leading into what this new "segment" will be about: trades. The question that these posts will seek to answer is, "What did they really end up getting for _______?" Mostly, it will focus on players who were involved in large trades that sent them alone from one team to another in exchange for a variety of veterans, rookies/minor leaguers, and draft picks. The articles will delve into what those assets actually were, and, if they were subsequently traded, for whom they were traded. The idea here is that when a deal is made, you create a string connecting the involved players; these posts will follow those strings to see the "end result" of those trades.
Here's our first one.
June 27, 2002: Montreal Expos Acquire Bartolo Colon
On the morning of June 27th, the MLB-owned Montreal Expos were 40-36, and Major League Baseball was under scrutiny for its management of this league asset. There were questions abound as to whether or not this arrangement was creating an unfair situation for other teams in the league; were the Expos, without an ownership group behind them, still pursuing victories as aggressively as other teams?
Perhaps as an answer to these contentions, and perhaps in a genuine attempt to make a push for the playoffs over the summer, the Expos traded a few young prospects and Lee Stevens to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon. Were they important prospects? Well, who can know?
We can, duh, that's what this is all about. Here's the full list of players involved in the trade:
Cleveland Indians trade
Oh god.
Cliff Lee was one of Cleveland's strongest starting pitchers in twenty years, going 83-48 from 2002-2009, and capturing the 2008 Cy Young award. Phillips never amounted to much for the Indians, but since being shuffled off to Cincinnati has been named to three All-Star teams, and has netted four Gold Gloves. Grady Sizemore was one of baseball's most prolific power-speed combo guys for several years, and he won a pair of Gold Gloves, although truthfully he may have been more useful as a fantasy player than a real-life player. Lee Stevens was past his prime by 2002, and didn't play in the majors beyond that season.
The problem for the Indians, of course, is that they didn't make the most of these assets. As the other Joe will constantly point out, Cleveland has a notorious history of poor player evaluations, and the fact that they couldn't find a way to get Brandon Phillips more than 12 games between 2004 and 2005 is criminal. They traded him to the Reds for a player to be named, who ended up being Jeff Stevens. If the name doesn't ring a bell, don't worry. He was a small-time reliever who didn't play in the majors until 2009...with the Cubs.
They did have four really good years with Grady Sizemore, and four-and-a-half with Cliff Lee. Sizemore suffered a variety of injuries and missed the 2012 and 2013 seasons altogether and being granted free agency by Cleveland. He signed with the Red Sox last offseason, played up and down for a couple months and was released. He caught on with the Phillies, and figures to be in a platoon or serving as a 4th outfielder for them next year.
Lee was traded along with Ben Francisco to the Phillies in a deadline deal that brought back Carlos Carrasco as well as three non-factor players (Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson. Carrasco was supposed to be the jewel of the deal, but didn't produce right away. Things are finally looking up a little bit after five years; he pitched in middle- and late-relief during the dog days of summer last year, and finished strong and back in the rotation. He's still under his rookie contract until 2018, so the Indians have some time to figure out if he's for real.
What about those 2002 Expos? They finished 83-79 and missed the playoffs. Colon went 10-4 with 3.31/1.32 averages, fine numbers, but not nearly as good as they were with the Indians prior to the trade. At the end of the season, Montreal traded Colon and minor leaguer Jorge Nunez to the White Sox for Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, and Jeff Liefer, none of whom had a noticeably positive impact on the Expos.
This was a curious case, where one of the most valuable pieces (Phillips) ended up being particularly valuable, but not for the team he was originally traded to. Still, the Indians were able to get four great years of production from Sizemore and Lee in exchange for an over-performing starting pitcher.
Endgame Winner: Cleveland Indians
(sub-winner: Cincinnati Reds)
I've always been fascinated with trades. When I was a kid, I used to trade baseball cards, not really knowing anything about their values, just swapping this guy for that guy. I remember trading a lot of nobody players (mostly non-Orioles to get Orioles), but I also remember doing trades involving cards of Gary Sheffield, Nolan Ryan, and for some reason Gregg Jefferies.
My love of trades has continued into adulthood, moving from sports cards to fantasy players, Steam games, and whatever else I've got in my life, physical or digital. When I moved back to the area from college, I remember I traded my desk, a microwave, and a bookshelf for a PS2 console, a couple accessories, and some PS2 and N64 games. I was pleased, the other guy was pleased, it was a great experience. And my interest in bartering grew.
I've also always been interested in trades that real-life sports teams make. When I was little, I remember writing a letter to the Baltimore Orioles (I don't know if I wrote it to someone in particular), listing out a number of players I thought they should trade for. I don't know if the letter ever got mailed or read, but I don't think I ever got a response. I still believe they should've traded for Julio Franco. I'll believe that 'til the day I die.
Anyways, all of this is leading into what this new "segment" will be about: trades. The question that these posts will seek to answer is, "What did they really end up getting for _______?" Mostly, it will focus on players who were involved in large trades that sent them alone from one team to another in exchange for a variety of veterans, rookies/minor leaguers, and draft picks. The articles will delve into what those assets actually were, and, if they were subsequently traded, for whom they were traded. The idea here is that when a deal is made, you create a string connecting the involved players; these posts will follow those strings to see the "end result" of those trades.
Here's our first one.
June 27, 2002: Montreal Expos Acquire Bartolo Colon
On the morning of June 27th, the MLB-owned Montreal Expos were 40-36, and Major League Baseball was under scrutiny for its management of this league asset. There were questions abound as to whether or not this arrangement was creating an unfair situation for other teams in the league; were the Expos, without an ownership group behind them, still pursuing victories as aggressively as other teams?
Perhaps as an answer to these contentions, and perhaps in a genuine attempt to make a push for the playoffs over the summer, the Expos traded a few young prospects and Lee Stevens to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon. Were they important prospects? Well, who can know?
We can, duh, that's what this is all about. Here's the full list of players involved in the trade:
Cleveland Indians trade
- Bartolo Colon
- Tim Drew
- Cliff Lee
- Brandon Phillips
- Grady Sizemore
- Lee Stevens
Oh god.
Cliff Lee was one of Cleveland's strongest starting pitchers in twenty years, going 83-48 from 2002-2009, and capturing the 2008 Cy Young award. Phillips never amounted to much for the Indians, but since being shuffled off to Cincinnati has been named to three All-Star teams, and has netted four Gold Gloves. Grady Sizemore was one of baseball's most prolific power-speed combo guys for several years, and he won a pair of Gold Gloves, although truthfully he may have been more useful as a fantasy player than a real-life player. Lee Stevens was past his prime by 2002, and didn't play in the majors beyond that season.
The problem for the Indians, of course, is that they didn't make the most of these assets. As the other Joe will constantly point out, Cleveland has a notorious history of poor player evaluations, and the fact that they couldn't find a way to get Brandon Phillips more than 12 games between 2004 and 2005 is criminal. They traded him to the Reds for a player to be named, who ended up being Jeff Stevens. If the name doesn't ring a bell, don't worry. He was a small-time reliever who didn't play in the majors until 2009...with the Cubs.
They did have four really good years with Grady Sizemore, and four-and-a-half with Cliff Lee. Sizemore suffered a variety of injuries and missed the 2012 and 2013 seasons altogether and being granted free agency by Cleveland. He signed with the Red Sox last offseason, played up and down for a couple months and was released. He caught on with the Phillies, and figures to be in a platoon or serving as a 4th outfielder for them next year.
Lee was traded along with Ben Francisco to the Phillies in a deadline deal that brought back Carlos Carrasco as well as three non-factor players (Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson. Carrasco was supposed to be the jewel of the deal, but didn't produce right away. Things are finally looking up a little bit after five years; he pitched in middle- and late-relief during the dog days of summer last year, and finished strong and back in the rotation. He's still under his rookie contract until 2018, so the Indians have some time to figure out if he's for real.
What about those 2002 Expos? They finished 83-79 and missed the playoffs. Colon went 10-4 with 3.31/1.32 averages, fine numbers, but not nearly as good as they were with the Indians prior to the trade. At the end of the season, Montreal traded Colon and minor leaguer Jorge Nunez to the White Sox for Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, and Jeff Liefer, none of whom had a noticeably positive impact on the Expos.
This was a curious case, where one of the most valuable pieces (Phillips) ended up being particularly valuable, but not for the team he was originally traded to. Still, the Indians were able to get four great years of production from Sizemore and Lee in exchange for an over-performing starting pitcher.
Endgame Winner: Cleveland Indians
(sub-winner: Cincinnati Reds)
Friday, November 28, 2014
Sigh...the Washington Redskins
Note: This post has nothing to do with the Redskins' team nickname, other than its use of the nickname in discussion.
So the Redskins are pretty bad. I mean, they've been competitive in some games this year, and they've even won a couple, but overall, they're just not very good. Historically, I'd have a standard response to this issue, but the more I think about it, the more I believe that my old solutions are symptomatic of the overall problem with the Skins (and to a lesser extent, the Capitals).
In the past, I've constantly come up with trade ideas or exciting potential free agent acquisitions, always thinking of ways to "win the offseason" in order to become a better team. This very rarely works. Teams that are good tend to have gotten good over the course of time. The Seahawks didn't show up out of nowhere; they'd been building up for years.
Now, with the impending change from Robert Griffin III to Colt McCoy, there's a lot of frustration in the air, and with good reason. Some people think Griffin deserves to finish out the season on merit. Others believe McCoy doesn't have a future as a starting QB, so any game he starts is a waste of an opportunity to learn about other QBs like Griffin or Kirk Cousins. And a lot of people are just pissed off that we're in this situation less than two years after the Griffin-led Redskins beat the Cowboys in week 17 to get into the playoffs. They're all valid gripes, and par for the course in Washington...which is exactly the problem.
I didn't agree with signing Ryan Clark in the offseason. He's past his prime, and I never thought he was a great player to begin with; he benefited from one of the most consistently strong defenses in the league in Pittsburgh. But he did have a history of playing on good teams, and I think that's what this Redskins team lacks the most. So many of the Skins' players are longtime Redskins, which means they're longtime losers. The culture of failure and disappointment is I think what's most problematic in Washington. That doesn't get solved overnight, and it doesn't get solved by addressing a skill concern.
The way I would approach trying to fix the Redskins is a "five-point plan" overhaul (I'm still feeling political; Election Day wasn't that long ago):
I'm just trying to get there.
So the Redskins are pretty bad. I mean, they've been competitive in some games this year, and they've even won a couple, but overall, they're just not very good. Historically, I'd have a standard response to this issue, but the more I think about it, the more I believe that my old solutions are symptomatic of the overall problem with the Skins (and to a lesser extent, the Capitals).
A change in personnel will not improve this team.
In the past, I've constantly come up with trade ideas or exciting potential free agent acquisitions, always thinking of ways to "win the offseason" in order to become a better team. This very rarely works. Teams that are good tend to have gotten good over the course of time. The Seahawks didn't show up out of nowhere; they'd been building up for years.
Now, with the impending change from Robert Griffin III to Colt McCoy, there's a lot of frustration in the air, and with good reason. Some people think Griffin deserves to finish out the season on merit. Others believe McCoy doesn't have a future as a starting QB, so any game he starts is a waste of an opportunity to learn about other QBs like Griffin or Kirk Cousins. And a lot of people are just pissed off that we're in this situation less than two years after the Griffin-led Redskins beat the Cowboys in week 17 to get into the playoffs. They're all valid gripes, and par for the course in Washington...which is exactly the problem.
I didn't agree with signing Ryan Clark in the offseason. He's past his prime, and I never thought he was a great player to begin with; he benefited from one of the most consistently strong defenses in the league in Pittsburgh. But he did have a history of playing on good teams, and I think that's what this Redskins team lacks the most. So many of the Skins' players are longtime Redskins, which means they're longtime losers. The culture of failure and disappointment is I think what's most problematic in Washington. That doesn't get solved overnight, and it doesn't get solved by addressing a skill concern.
The way I would approach trying to fix the Redskins is a "five-point plan" overhaul (I'm still feeling political; Election Day wasn't that long ago):
- Refuse to accept losing. After a near lifetime of disappointment, we in Washington expect to fail. So, why not "fail big" in order to improve draft status? I would cite the 76ers, the Raiders, and the Jaguars. The players you acquire have to hate losing. Fighting tooth and nail for every win is a direct way to improving the team's culture. And that means giving Colt McCoy a chance.
- Stick with the same coach. Some people don't like Jay Gruden, but I think his tell-it-like-it-is nature is refreshing. And by the way, other than Marty Schottenheimer, the Redskins' fan base was on board with every coaching change the Redskins have made in recent years. Steve Spurrier was panned, Jim Zorn was despised, and Mike Shanahan was soured upon. Don't get pissed at Dan Snyder for changing coaches when you call for exactly the same moves.
- Draft people, not skillsets. The players who pay off the most are players who are driven to perform from within. JaMarcus Russell was an impressive physical specimen with great arm strength and size, but he seemed to coast along, expecting those skills to carry him. You want guys who have fight in their hearts, who strive to improve every day. Football is such an intense sport that guys who take plays off are going to cost you, on the field and in the locker room.
- Stop signing bad players to bad contracts. Albert Haynesworth was one of the worst signings in NFL history, but he's far from the only mistake Washington's made in recent years. Signing guys off their best seasons, signing accomplished veterans for starter money when they aren't worthy of starting any more, signing guys because of their names and not because of their skills. All bad. I don't know if it's a scouting issue, or an "owner-involvement" issue, but the Skins have had trouble using their funds appropriately of late. So, in the same vein...
- Sign the "right" guys. There are thousands of guys trying to play professional football, and hundreds more come in from college every year. But there are a few key components the Skins have been missing. This past offseason was the first time they'd spent any legitimate money on a punt/kickoff return guy, even though it's been a weakness for a decade. They still lack a LOT in the leadership department; when DeAngelo Hall went down, could anybody name a leader on this defense? Plenty of good players, but no leaders. If I could draw a blueprint for the perfect guy for the Skins to sign, he'd be a productive middle linebacker with pedigree, leadership skills, a clean bill of health, and experience winning in the playoffs. I know that's a narrow definition, but I'm not saying it's got to be Brian Urlacher or Ray Lewis. Just someone who can play.
I'm just trying to get there.
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Unsubscribing from Star Wars
So I recently allowed my subscription to lapse for Star Wars: The Old Republic
. It wasn't a mistake; I had subscribed for a month and enjoyed it, but I knew going in that I'd be headed back to a free-to-play status. Well, not exactly that; SW:TOR has a middle tier called "preferred" players, giving a few extra bonuses for players who have spent any money in the Cartel Market, or have ever been subscribers. The middle tier has a few more character slots, quickbars (which really shouldn't be limited on any tier; they're part of gameplay), auction slots, etc. It's also got a credit limit of 350,000 credits for each character, and this factor has had an effect that I couldn't have anticipated:
I'm playing the game again.
While I was a subscriber, I spent the majority of my time trying to make money. I was going to say "a good portion," but the truth is it was a majority of my time in the game. I would log in, send my crew on missions to pick up crafting materials, then peruse the auction house for this or that, then Alt+Tab to work on whatever else I had going on, or just watch Orange Is the New Black
.
Sometimes I'd swap into another character while I was waiting for my crew to get back, so that I could send another companion on another crew mission. I was literally grinding out a job on days I had off from my real job. And not even with a goal in mind; there isn't really anything credit-wise I was saving up for. I was just acquiring credits so that I had them.
But now, with the 350,000 credit limit, there's no reason for me to wildly accumulate. As a result, instead of wallowing on the Imperial Fleet, I'm pushing forward with my class missions. I'm a bit over-leveled because I have a habit of doing every single mission I get, so I only get experience on like half of the missions, but the story is moving along, and I'm enjoying that.
Additionally, I'm less concerned about spending money on the Galactic Trade Network (I called it the auction house earlier, but GTN is the official name). The one thing I'd spent money on before was mounts, but I was always reticent to shell out the cash, because I didn't know if I was getting a good deal. Now I don't care much; I have a credit limit, so if I don't spend the money, it gets locked away in "escrow" until I pay to have it transferred or re-subscribe. So if I see a mount I don't already have, I buy it. No researching the prices, no wondering if it was for sale somewhere from a vendor, just nom nom nom.
I still send my guys on crew missions, of course. I'm not going to change who I am at my core. But the credit limit has helped to change my play habits, I think for the better. I'm getting a lot closer to that "experiential gaming" I mentioned in a post last week.
And I am pleased.
. It wasn't a mistake; I had subscribed for a month and enjoyed it, but I knew going in that I'd be headed back to a free-to-play status. Well, not exactly that; SW:TOR has a middle tier called "preferred" players, giving a few extra bonuses for players who have spent any money in the Cartel Market, or have ever been subscribers. The middle tier has a few more character slots, quickbars (which really shouldn't be limited on any tier; they're part of gameplay), auction slots, etc. It's also got a credit limit of 350,000 credits for each character, and this factor has had an effect that I couldn't have anticipated:I'm playing the game again.
While I was a subscriber, I spent the majority of my time trying to make money. I was going to say "a good portion," but the truth is it was a majority of my time in the game. I would log in, send my crew on missions to pick up crafting materials, then peruse the auction house for this or that, then Alt+Tab to work on whatever else I had going on, or just watch Orange Is the New Black
.Sometimes I'd swap into another character while I was waiting for my crew to get back, so that I could send another companion on another crew mission. I was literally grinding out a job on days I had off from my real job. And not even with a goal in mind; there isn't really anything credit-wise I was saving up for. I was just acquiring credits so that I had them.
But now, with the 350,000 credit limit, there's no reason for me to wildly accumulate. As a result, instead of wallowing on the Imperial Fleet, I'm pushing forward with my class missions. I'm a bit over-leveled because I have a habit of doing every single mission I get, so I only get experience on like half of the missions, but the story is moving along, and I'm enjoying that.
Additionally, I'm less concerned about spending money on the Galactic Trade Network (I called it the auction house earlier, but GTN is the official name). The one thing I'd spent money on before was mounts, but I was always reticent to shell out the cash, because I didn't know if I was getting a good deal. Now I don't care much; I have a credit limit, so if I don't spend the money, it gets locked away in "escrow" until I pay to have it transferred or re-subscribe. So if I see a mount I don't already have, I buy it. No researching the prices, no wondering if it was for sale somewhere from a vendor, just nom nom nom.
I still send my guys on crew missions, of course. I'm not going to change who I am at my core. But the credit limit has helped to change my play habits, I think for the better. I'm getting a lot closer to that "experiential gaming" I mentioned in a post last week.
And I am pleased.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Pie Tuesday
Today is Pie Tuesday.
I know some of you recognize March 14 (or 3-14) as Pi Day, and bully for you. But Pie Tuesday has a storied history that goes back like seven or eight years.
Alright, I'm being a little facetious, but I like that Pie Tuesday is our own. The original Pie Tuesday sprung from my friend Mark and I visiting my cousin Michael at his late night job as a desk clerk in College Park. The plan was to surprise him with snacks and company. We went to a few different spots searching for pies (on a whim), but each place we went to was closed. Perkins, Target, even the Wal-Mart we visited was shut down for the night. We were all set to give up hope when we remembered that there was a Shoppers Food Warehouse in College Park. So we scooted on down the highway and made our way to CP.
We grabbed a case of Little Hugs
fruit drinks, a tray of cinnamon rolls, a half gallon of ice cream, and a pair of pies that would become our standard: apple and pumpkin. We surprised Michael, fun times were had, snacks were eaten, and a tradition was born.
These days, Pie Tuesday has evolved into a general guy-time hangout, with an emphasis on pies (unsurprisingly). It's no longer a surprise for anyone, but we sit around and play board games, watch sports, stuff our faces, and be loud and obnoxious. It's great.
If you're not celebrating Pie Tuesday, you should. And if you are, save me a slice.
I know some of you recognize March 14 (or 3-14) as Pi Day, and bully for you. But Pie Tuesday has a storied history that goes back like seven or eight years.
Alright, I'm being a little facetious, but I like that Pie Tuesday is our own. The original Pie Tuesday sprung from my friend Mark and I visiting my cousin Michael at his late night job as a desk clerk in College Park. The plan was to surprise him with snacks and company. We went to a few different spots searching for pies (on a whim), but each place we went to was closed. Perkins, Target, even the Wal-Mart we visited was shut down for the night. We were all set to give up hope when we remembered that there was a Shoppers Food Warehouse in College Park. So we scooted on down the highway and made our way to CP.
We grabbed a case of Little Hugs
fruit drinks, a tray of cinnamon rolls, a half gallon of ice cream, and a pair of pies that would become our standard: apple and pumpkin. We surprised Michael, fun times were had, snacks were eaten, and a tradition was born.These days, Pie Tuesday has evolved into a general guy-time hangout, with an emphasis on pies (unsurprisingly). It's no longer a surprise for anyone, but we sit around and play board games, watch sports, stuff our faces, and be loud and obnoxious. It's great.
If you're not celebrating Pie Tuesday, you should. And if you are, save me a slice.
Monday, November 24, 2014
A Gambler's Secret CS:GO Fun: The Trade-Up Contract
Note: Prices from this article were retrieved in November, 2014. CS:GO market fluctuations may result in jumps and dips, but the relative prices between tiers should be consistent.
If, like me, you're new-ish to CS:GO, you may only have a cursory knowledge of the Trade-Up Contract. And that's okay; it's not like you're missing out on a key game feature, like grenades or deathmatch. It's a sideways way of getting new weapon skins when you've got a lot of junkers. But if you like gambling, it can be a slightly less risky way to wet your whistle than opening cases.
The Basics
First, let's go over how it works. Weapon skins have multiple grades, progressing in the following order from least rare to most rare:
In order to "trade up," you select ten weapons of all the same grade, and you will receive one weapon of the next grade up. For example, If you trade up ten industrial grade weapons, you get one mil-spec weapon. If you trade up ten mil-spec weapons, you'll get a restricted weapon, and so on. So, if you wanted to trade from only consumer grade weapons and get a covert weapon, you'd need 100,000 consumer grade weapons. There are certainly that many consumer grade weapons out there, but at a nickel apiece, you'd be spending five grand to get to that point; not exactly a great strategy.
Map Collections and Case Collections
Of course, there's more to it than that. How does the game decide what weapon to grant you? Each weapon is part of a specific "collection." There are two different kinds of collections. There are collections that drop at the end of matches. We'll call these "map collections," because each of these collections is named after a map in CS:GO. So you have the Dust Collection, the Mirage Collection, the Train Collection, etc. The other kind of collections are those that drop when you use a key to open a weapon case. We'll call these "case collections," for obvious reasons. Something to note is that case collections only drop mil-spec or higher weapons. Consumer and industrial grade weapons only exist in map collections, and only drop at the end of matches.
If you trade up ten items from within the same collection, you'll get an item from the next tier up in that collection. For example, take a look at the Arms Deal Collection, the first case collection in the game. If you were to trade up ten AUG | Wings, you would be guaranteed to get one of three items: Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo, USP-S | Dark Water, or M4A1-S | Dark Water. So, your chances of getting any one of those three items would be about 33.3%. You could also trade up three AUG | Wings, three SG 553 | Ultraviolet, and four MP7 | Skulls, and have the same odds of the three restricted-grade weapon skins.
With the original Trade Up Contract, this was your only option. You were required to trade up within the same collection. Now, however, you have more options, which creates greater gambling possibilities.
Mix and Match
With the current Trade Up format, you can now trade up ten equal grade weapons from any collection and receive a random item from the next tier up among those collections. Each of the ten items contributes 10% of the odds of the resulting skin. So for example, using the AUG | Wings from above, each AUG | Wings you use in a contract would add a 3.33% chance to draw each of the Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo, the USP-S | Dark Water, and the M4A1-S | Dark Water. If you were to add a PP-Bizon | Brass from the Dust 2 Collection, you would add a full 10% chance of drawing the P2000 | Amber Fade (one of my personal favorite skins). Each base item contributes ten percent to the total, so adding this list of guns to your Trade Up Contract...
AUG | Wings
AUG | Wings
AUG | Wings
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
...would result in the following odds:
Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo = (3.33 + 3.33 + 3.33) = 10%
USP-S | Dark Water = 10%
M4A1-S | Dark Water = 10%
P2000 | Amber Fade = (10 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 10) = 70%
But Math Isn't Fun...
So what's the big deal, right? The Mil-Spec weapons from the Phoenix case (UMP-45 | Corporal, Negev | Terrain, etc) are about $0.05 apiece, and at the trade up level, the Restricted weapons from that case range from $0.25 to $0.45 apiece. So a trade up only loses you money...
...unless you mix and match sets. For example, look at the Assault Collection (which you'll find is everyone's favorite because of the Glock-18 | Fade). The only industrial grade skin is the Five-SeveN | Candy Apple, which is about $1.11 on the market right now. If you traded up with only consumer grade skins from the Assault Collection, you'd spend about $1.50. But, if you only included, say, two skins from the Assault Collection, and then put in eight skins from lower end collections (Dust 2 consumer grade skins are about $0.03 right now), you could roll the dice on a 20% chance at getting the Candy Apple. It's still mathematically a losing proposition, but now it at least boasts the possibility of a big win. That's gambling, folks.
So what you're looking for are skins whose values at various tiers are notably different from the same tiers in other collections. Some rough base values to use:
An important note: there are some skins that are regularly below average market value for their grade that you should never, ever buy for trade ups. The reason is that some skins below Covert are still the top level weapon skin for their collection.
Which Collections Have Outliers?
All collections are going to have some variation in price from one tier to the next. It's a complicated result of a number of factors, most specifically the following:
You can, of course, do your own research, but I wanted to provide a little information directly regarding which spots have some potential for gambling upside. These are skins that you can slide in as your "lotto ticket" for a reasonable price, and give yourself a chance at a big win. These are in no way guarantees, and I want to impress upon you that, even these adjusted tactics will still, more often than not, lead to a negative result, value-wise. It's just fun to give yourself that chance.
Anyways, these skins have trade-up potential that goes above and beyond the normal values for that tier. These are also only skins that have 100% trade up "win" potential; that is, if you "hit" on this skin, you're going to get a valuable skin as a result.
Assault Collection
All consumer grade skins
Five-SeveN | Candy Apple
Bank Collection
CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo
Galil AR | Tuxedo
Cobblestone Collection
All industrial grade skins
All mil-spec grade skins
All restricted grade skins
Italy Collection
Sawed-Off | Full Stop
Overpass Collection
All industrial grade skins
Vertigo Collection
All consumer grade skins
For giggles, and in case you were unsure of what this whole process looks like, I've prepared the videos below for your pleasure.
Thanks for reading all the way down, and good luck with your gambling!
If, like me, you're new-ish to CS:GO, you may only have a cursory knowledge of the Trade-Up Contract. And that's okay; it's not like you're missing out on a key game feature, like grenades or deathmatch. It's a sideways way of getting new weapon skins when you've got a lot of junkers. But if you like gambling, it can be a slightly less risky way to wet your whistle than opening cases.
The Basics
First, let's go over how it works. Weapon skins have multiple grades, progressing in the following order from least rare to most rare:
- Consumer
- Industrial
- Mil-Spec
- Restricted
- Classified
- Covert
- Contraband*
In order to "trade up," you select ten weapons of all the same grade, and you will receive one weapon of the next grade up. For example, If you trade up ten industrial grade weapons, you get one mil-spec weapon. If you trade up ten mil-spec weapons, you'll get a restricted weapon, and so on. So, if you wanted to trade from only consumer grade weapons and get a covert weapon, you'd need 100,000 consumer grade weapons. There are certainly that many consumer grade weapons out there, but at a nickel apiece, you'd be spending five grand to get to that point; not exactly a great strategy.
Map Collections and Case Collections
Of course, there's more to it than that. How does the game decide what weapon to grant you? Each weapon is part of a specific "collection." There are two different kinds of collections. There are collections that drop at the end of matches. We'll call these "map collections," because each of these collections is named after a map in CS:GO. So you have the Dust Collection, the Mirage Collection, the Train Collection, etc. The other kind of collections are those that drop when you use a key to open a weapon case. We'll call these "case collections," for obvious reasons. Something to note is that case collections only drop mil-spec or higher weapons. Consumer and industrial grade weapons only exist in map collections, and only drop at the end of matches.
If you trade up ten items from within the same collection, you'll get an item from the next tier up in that collection. For example, take a look at the Arms Deal Collection, the first case collection in the game. If you were to trade up ten AUG | Wings, you would be guaranteed to get one of three items: Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo, USP-S | Dark Water, or M4A1-S | Dark Water. So, your chances of getting any one of those three items would be about 33.3%. You could also trade up three AUG | Wings, three SG 553 | Ultraviolet, and four MP7 | Skulls, and have the same odds of the three restricted-grade weapon skins.
With the original Trade Up Contract, this was your only option. You were required to trade up within the same collection. Now, however, you have more options, which creates greater gambling possibilities.
Mix and Match
With the current Trade Up format, you can now trade up ten equal grade weapons from any collection and receive a random item from the next tier up among those collections. Each of the ten items contributes 10% of the odds of the resulting skin. So for example, using the AUG | Wings from above, each AUG | Wings you use in a contract would add a 3.33% chance to draw each of the Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo, the USP-S | Dark Water, and the M4A1-S | Dark Water. If you were to add a PP-Bizon | Brass from the Dust 2 Collection, you would add a full 10% chance of drawing the P2000 | Amber Fade (one of my personal favorite skins). Each base item contributes ten percent to the total, so adding this list of guns to your Trade Up Contract...
AUG | Wings
AUG | Wings
AUG | Wings
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
...would result in the following odds:
Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo = (3.33 + 3.33 + 3.33) = 10%
USP-S | Dark Water = 10%
M4A1-S | Dark Water = 10%
P2000 | Amber Fade = (10 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 10) = 70%
But Math Isn't Fun...
So what's the big deal, right? The Mil-Spec weapons from the Phoenix case (UMP-45 | Corporal, Negev | Terrain, etc) are about $0.05 apiece, and at the trade up level, the Restricted weapons from that case range from $0.25 to $0.45 apiece. So a trade up only loses you money...
...unless you mix and match sets. For example, look at the Assault Collection (which you'll find is everyone's favorite because of the Glock-18 | Fade). The only industrial grade skin is the Five-SeveN | Candy Apple, which is about $1.11 on the market right now. If you traded up with only consumer grade skins from the Assault Collection, you'd spend about $1.50. But, if you only included, say, two skins from the Assault Collection, and then put in eight skins from lower end collections (Dust 2 consumer grade skins are about $0.03 right now), you could roll the dice on a 20% chance at getting the Candy Apple. It's still mathematically a losing proposition, but now it at least boasts the possibility of a big win. That's gambling, folks.
So what you're looking for are skins whose values at various tiers are notably different from the same tiers in other collections. Some rough base values to use:
- Consumer - $0.03 - $0.05
- Industrial - $0.05 - $0.09
- Mil-Spec - $0.09 - $0.14
- Restricted - $0.34 - $0.45
- Classified - $2.00 - $2.45
An important note: there are some skins that are regularly below average market value for their grade that you should never, ever buy for trade ups. The reason is that some skins below Covert are still the top level weapon skin for their collection.
Which Collections Have Outliers?
All collections are going to have some variation in price from one tier to the next. It's a complicated result of a number of factors, most specifically the following:
- Age/supply of collection
- Demand for highest tier of weapon
You can, of course, do your own research, but I wanted to provide a little information directly regarding which spots have some potential for gambling upside. These are skins that you can slide in as your "lotto ticket" for a reasonable price, and give yourself a chance at a big win. These are in no way guarantees, and I want to impress upon you that, even these adjusted tactics will still, more often than not, lead to a negative result, value-wise. It's just fun to give yourself that chance.
Anyways, these skins have trade-up potential that goes above and beyond the normal values for that tier. These are also only skins that have 100% trade up "win" potential; that is, if you "hit" on this skin, you're going to get a valuable skin as a result.
Assault Collection
All consumer grade skins
Five-SeveN | Candy Apple
Bank Collection
CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo
Galil AR | Tuxedo
Cobblestone Collection
All industrial grade skins
All mil-spec grade skins
All restricted grade skins
Italy Collection
Sawed-Off | Full Stop
Overpass Collection
All industrial grade skins
Vertigo Collection
All consumer grade skins
For giggles, and in case you were unsure of what this whole process looks like, I've prepared the videos below for your pleasure.
Thanks for reading all the way down, and good luck with your gambling!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
-
When I think about why I'm making this blog post, I'm reminded of a memorable quote from my all-time favorite show, The West Wing : ...
-
Games are a little tougher to judge, because frankly I play a lot of games that I don't finish, but often I don't finish them like, ...
-
We're making progress! I've got kind of a reputation for being way behind on movies and shows, a reputation well-earned. Even with t...
