Here are the predictions you really care about, beginning with the most important one of all.
#1 Washington Capitals vs. #8 New York Rangers
The Caps are a tough team to figure out right now. They've been playing a lot better since the trading deadline, when they acquired Jason Arnott, Marco Sturm, and Dennis Wideman. Arnott and Wideman in particular have been tremendous. Problem is, Wideman is out for the first round of the playoffs, and he's not the only Caps player who's under the weather. Mike Green hasn't played since taking a blow to the head against these very Rangers on February 25th (a day which will live in infamy), Tom Poti has been out even longer, and almost every important Washington player has missed at least a game or two over the past few weeks. Hopefully that was just a matter of giving guys rest, but it gives me pause.
The Rangers are without their third-highest scorer Ryan Callahan, and this is a team that could ill-afford to lose any kind of offense. They're young, and they get contributions from a lot of different guys, but they mostly rely on defense, goaltending, and opportunity to win hockey games. Henrik Lundqvist is one of the best goalies in the East, but he went just 36-32 this season. Could he steal a game? Sure. But not more than one.
Prediction: Capitals in 5
#2 Philadelphia Flyers vs. #7 Buffalo Sabres
The sexy pick these days is to count out the Flyers after they stumbled into the playoffs. Did they lose the #1 overall seed? Yes. Did they almost yield the division to the streaking Penguins? Yes. Are they suddenly a crummy team? No.
Buffalo has a few nice pieces, including their all-world goalie Ryan Miller. But Miller hasn't been nearly as dominant this season as he was last year. And while neither of Philly's goalies (Sergei Bobrovsky and Brian Boucher) have been tremendous, they both benefit from an extremely physical team in front of them, and a team that loves blocking shots. I just don't see how Buffalo can overcome Philadelphia's depth and physicality.
Prediction: Flyers in 5
#3 Boston Bruins vs. #6 Montreal Canadiens
Carey Price has carried Montreal this season, but this is the same Carey Price who got ousted for Jaroslav Halak in last year's playoffs. He also appeared in 20 more games than he's ever played in before, second only to Cam Ward in games played and goalie minutes. All together, I feel like Price is setting up for a disappointment.
Meanwhile, the Bruins have arguably the NHL's best goalie in Tim Thomas, who led all of hockey in save percentage and goals against average. He was also afforded a good deal of rest by backup Tuukka Rask, and should be 100% ready to go come playoff time. Furthermore, with Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg, the Bruins might have the strongest defensive pairing in the Eastern Conference.
I could see half of the games going to overtime, but I'm confident the Bruins will take the series.
Prediction: Bruins in 5
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Tampa Bay Lightning
The Penguins definitely miss superstar Sidney Crosby, but they've acquitted themselves nicely of late, winning eight of their last ten regular season games. Of course, their two losses came against the last two playoff teams they faced, including a matchup against the Lightning on March 31st. The reality is that Pittsburgh is a nearly impossible team to figure out right now. Their two noteworthy deadline acquisitions, James Neal and Alex Kovalev, have been either inconsistent or downright disappointing. We know Kovalev can step his game up, but if Neal doesn't, who else scores on this team?
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is one of the easier teams to assess. They're gonna score, probably a lot, and they're going to give you your chances to score, too. Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis both registered more than 90 points on the year, but finished just a combined +3. They did, however, finish in the top 10 in both the power play and penalty kill, and led the NHL in shorthanded goals.
Marc-Andre Fleury is a damn fine goalie, and he's got a chance to win this series for the Penguins. They'll need exceptional play from unexceptional players. Dan Bylsma is a good coach, and he just might get his guys to rally. And there's always the chance that Crosby actually does play. If he does, make it five games instead of seven.
Prediction: Penguins in 7
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Playoff predictions: NHL Round 1
I have been watching and reading different "expert" picks for the last few days. They come from all over the internet, Ex. ESPN, NHL.com, and TSN. What I found was very few analysts were willing to gamble on upsets. The only upset pick was Buffalo over Philly. This comes a year after half the first round ended with upsets. So I've tried to put my big boy pants on and try not to be a tool like 90% of the people out there.
Eastern Conference
Washington Capitals Vs. New York Rangers
I have watched each of the four games between these two teams and it wasn't pretty. The Rangers will be looking for Marian Gaborik to break out of his funk and put goals on the board. Two things worry me about this series. 1. Washington has been killed by injuries on the defensive end as the season closes out. 2. Gaborik and several other Rangers just seem to kill the Caps over the years. With all that said I think the Caps take this one in 7. With a healthy Wideman and Green I do not think this is a series to be honest. However Tyler Sloan and Erskine on the ice together at MSG with Rangers having last change will make anyone worry. As Skinner says "Prove me wrong kids. Prove me wrong."
Philadelphia Flyers vs Buffalo Sabers
As I mentioned before this has been the trendy upset pick. In a way the Flyers remind me of the Caps last year. Great regular season but just seemed to get stagnant over the last month. That combined with a healthy Ryan Miller and an injured Chris Pronger I am also going to go with the Sabers. Remember these Sabers can score unlike in previous years. Sabers in 6.
Boston Bruins vs Montreal Canadians
Since the addition of Tomas Kaberle maybe people have loved the Bruins. I don't know what it is but I think Boston stumbles here. Maybe I just can not get past what Montreal did last year but Boston just seems like its primed for a fall. Call me crazy. Montreal in 7.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning
No Sid the Kid of Geno for half the season and still Pittsburgh comes within a game of taking the Atlantic and the 2nd seed. This team can play defense and has the top PK unit in the league. MAF has been outstanding over the last few months. Enough so, Mark and I have discussed if he should be in consideration for MVP. However picking Pitt just doesn't seem right to me. Pitt has won 10 games by way of SO. Which I have come to believe is not real hockey. Also their GPA is 2.3 since Crosby went out with an injury. That is not a lot of room for mistakes. While I would like to see a round two match up (or Eastern Conference Final for that matter) of Pens v Caps I think TB is able to take one game on road and win in 7.
Western Conference
Vancouver Canucks vs Chicago Blackhawks
Blackhawks control their own destiny and lose at home to Detroit. Not the best note to start the playoffs on. I like the Blackhawks a lot and I think they will score more in this series then people think. But Crawford makes me cringe in net. I just do not see him stopping Kesler and the Sedin twins. Vancouver in 5.
San Jose Sharks vs LA Kings
Jonathan Quick is a great goaltender. However the loss of Kopitar is just too much for LA. Penner has not meshed since being acquired and LA will struggle to score. I think this series goes to San Jose in 5.
Detroit Red Wings vs Phoenix Coyotes
Keith Yandle... ever since my All-Star draft I like this guy. However, I think Detroit is the better team even without Zetterberg for game 1. (By the way his wife or girlfriend is really attractive) Jimmy Howard comes up big and makes this a short series. Detroit in 5.
Anaheim Ducks vs Nashville Predators
Dan Ellis looks to be in goal for the Ducks for game 1. Ryan Suter and Shea Weber are great d-men and provide a good chance to slow down the Ducks offense. Many people have the Ducks as a dark horse Cup contender. I think Anaheim runs out of steam and falls to Nashville in a 7 game series. Nashville moves to the second round.
Think I'm crazy? Let me know comment below.
NHL First Round Predictions - Western Conference
Nothing fancy, just predicting the first round matchups in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Here we go.
#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Chicago Blackhawks
What a treat for the President's Cup winners: you get to face the defending Stanley Cup champions in the first round! Honestly, though, the Blackhawks aren't nearly the team they were last year. They needed help from the Minnesota Wild on the last day of the season to even make the playoffs at all, edging out the Dallas Stars for the 8th seed. Vancouver, meanwhile, has had the Western Conference wrapped up for weeks.
So what's going to happen? Well, I normally like to see upsets, but I don't like the Blackhawks, and Vancouver boasts last year's MVP and this year's front-runner in Henrik and Daniel Sedin, respectively. Partner that with a solid goalie in Roberto Luongo and plenty of playoff experience, and I don't see the Blackhawks finding a way to win four games.
Prediction: Canucks in 6
#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #7 Los Angeles Kings
It's worth noting that just seven points separated these two teams at the end of the year. Not exactly a huge difference for such a spread on the seedings. That should tell you how strong a lot of the Western Conference is this season.
It took a little while, but the Sharks did finally start to show some of their old swagger. They finished with seven different twenty goal scorers, and discovered that Antti Niemi is a top end goalie, overtaking Antero Nittymaki as the #1 man between the pipes. Now, no team is as talented in the back end as the Kings, with Jonathan Quick, who's maybe the best goalie in hockey, and a whole rack of special defensemen, including Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson.
But Anze Kopitar is going to miss the whole playoffs due to a broken ankle, and without him in the lineup, they haven't got the firepower to compete with San Jose. Quick can probably steal a game on his own, and the overall defense will keep them competitive, maybe even push it to the brink. But in the end, the Sharks are going to move on.
Prediction: Sharks in 7
#3 Detroit Red Wings vs. #6 Phoenix Coyotes
This is one of the toughest first round matchups to predict. It's a rematch of last year's 4/5 series which the Coyotes pushed to seven games (before getting blasted 6-1 on home ice). This year, defenseman Keith Yandle has stepped up his offense, and in fact the whole team is extremely balanced. They don't really have a superstar (Shane Doan is as close as it gets), but that means they're unpredictable on offense.
Detroit, meanwhile, will be without Henrik Zetterberg for at least Game 1, and while there's still plenty of talent on the team, if Phoenix can steal a game in Detroit while Zetterberg is out of the lineup, the series is wide open. Jimmy Howard wasn't exactly stalwart in goal for the Wings, and it wasn't but a year ago that the Coyotes' Ilya Bryzgalov was arguably the best goalie in the West. Everybody likes to make a gutsy pick, so here's mine.
Prediction: Coyotes in 7
#4 Anaheim Ducks vs. #5 Nashville Predators
Nashville is one of those teams that nobody really wants to play. It's not because you don't think you can beat them; you just know that you're going to pay the price for every inch of real estate. Shea Weber is one of the biggest sons of bitches in the league, delivering tons of hits and blocking shot after shot. The rest of his defensive linemates fall in line with the same mentality, giving up their bodies and making sure their opponents take just as much damage. That's a big reason why goalie Pekka Rinne was third in GAA this year.
The Ducks, meanwhile, are an offensive juggernaut. Corey Perry led the whole NHL with 50 goals, and the team boasts three other 70 point players (Teemu Selanne, Ryan Getzlaf, and Bobby Ryan). But their commitment to defense leaves a lot to be desired. Only Detroit averaged more goals allowed per game than the Ducks among playoff teams. You can attribute that to their very good goalie, Jonas Hiller, but everything gets magnified in the playoffs. I foresee more problematic mistakes for the Ducks defensively, and I think Nashville will be opportunistic.
Prediction: Nashville in 6
Coming soon: Eastern Conference predictions...
#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Chicago Blackhawks
What a treat for the President's Cup winners: you get to face the defending Stanley Cup champions in the first round! Honestly, though, the Blackhawks aren't nearly the team they were last year. They needed help from the Minnesota Wild on the last day of the season to even make the playoffs at all, edging out the Dallas Stars for the 8th seed. Vancouver, meanwhile, has had the Western Conference wrapped up for weeks.
So what's going to happen? Well, I normally like to see upsets, but I don't like the Blackhawks, and Vancouver boasts last year's MVP and this year's front-runner in Henrik and Daniel Sedin, respectively. Partner that with a solid goalie in Roberto Luongo and plenty of playoff experience, and I don't see the Blackhawks finding a way to win four games.
Prediction: Canucks in 6
#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #7 Los Angeles Kings
It's worth noting that just seven points separated these two teams at the end of the year. Not exactly a huge difference for such a spread on the seedings. That should tell you how strong a lot of the Western Conference is this season.
It took a little while, but the Sharks did finally start to show some of their old swagger. They finished with seven different twenty goal scorers, and discovered that Antti Niemi is a top end goalie, overtaking Antero Nittymaki as the #1 man between the pipes. Now, no team is as talented in the back end as the Kings, with Jonathan Quick, who's maybe the best goalie in hockey, and a whole rack of special defensemen, including Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson.
But Anze Kopitar is going to miss the whole playoffs due to a broken ankle, and without him in the lineup, they haven't got the firepower to compete with San Jose. Quick can probably steal a game on his own, and the overall defense will keep them competitive, maybe even push it to the brink. But in the end, the Sharks are going to move on.
Prediction: Sharks in 7
#3 Detroit Red Wings vs. #6 Phoenix Coyotes
This is one of the toughest first round matchups to predict. It's a rematch of last year's 4/5 series which the Coyotes pushed to seven games (before getting blasted 6-1 on home ice). This year, defenseman Keith Yandle has stepped up his offense, and in fact the whole team is extremely balanced. They don't really have a superstar (Shane Doan is as close as it gets), but that means they're unpredictable on offense.
Detroit, meanwhile, will be without Henrik Zetterberg for at least Game 1, and while there's still plenty of talent on the team, if Phoenix can steal a game in Detroit while Zetterberg is out of the lineup, the series is wide open. Jimmy Howard wasn't exactly stalwart in goal for the Wings, and it wasn't but a year ago that the Coyotes' Ilya Bryzgalov was arguably the best goalie in the West. Everybody likes to make a gutsy pick, so here's mine.
Prediction: Coyotes in 7
#4 Anaheim Ducks vs. #5 Nashville Predators
Nashville is one of those teams that nobody really wants to play. It's not because you don't think you can beat them; you just know that you're going to pay the price for every inch of real estate. Shea Weber is one of the biggest sons of bitches in the league, delivering tons of hits and blocking shot after shot. The rest of his defensive linemates fall in line with the same mentality, giving up their bodies and making sure their opponents take just as much damage. That's a big reason why goalie Pekka Rinne was third in GAA this year.
The Ducks, meanwhile, are an offensive juggernaut. Corey Perry led the whole NHL with 50 goals, and the team boasts three other 70 point players (Teemu Selanne, Ryan Getzlaf, and Bobby Ryan). But their commitment to defense leaves a lot to be desired. Only Detroit averaged more goals allowed per game than the Ducks among playoff teams. You can attribute that to their very good goalie, Jonas Hiller, but everything gets magnified in the playoffs. I foresee more problematic mistakes for the Ducks defensively, and I think Nashville will be opportunistic.
Prediction: Nashville in 6
Coming soon: Eastern Conference predictions...
Monday, April 11, 2011
Playoff Fantasy Hockey
Join the group, make a squad, embarrass your friend Joe:
http://games.espn.go.com/playoff-hockey-challenge/en/group?groupID=2063
http://games.espn.go.com/playoff-hockey-challenge/en/group?groupID=2063
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
2011 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Draft Analysis
Eddie beat me to the punch, but here's my draft analysis.
Those Guys
Those Guys
- Best pick: Carlos Marmol (1.1)
As I've said before, sometimes the easiest pick is still the best pick. Blake Griffin was a great pick, and so is Marmol. - Worst pick: Aubrey Huff (7.1)
Huff doesn't strike me as a guy with a ton of appealing upside. While the 7th round isn't early per se, I'd have liked to see the Guys go after some younger players. Luke Scott and Carlos Lee are similar players, and both went three rounds later. - Overall Draft Grade: B-
The whole draft seemed like a draft by a team that felt it was ready to compete: two closers early, Vlad Guerrero and Tim Hudson in the 4th and 5th, and more veterans to fill in the lineup/rotation. A good fit for some teams, but Those Guys seem at least a year away. I would've liked to see more risks, more youth.
- Best pick: Carl Pavano (14.3)
Pavano's had more bad years than good ones, but seems to have found a home in Minnesota. Can you trust him? Probably not. But landing a guy who could be as good as Tim Hudson in the last round is nice value. - Worst pick: Carlos Quentin (6.3)
I just hate him. - Overall Draft Grade: C
So much of this draft relies on the first two guys, neither of whom is a sure thing. But, if Carlos Santana grows up fast, and Pablo Sandoval bounces back, the draft could be looking a lot better in 2 months. And, like Eddie said, Vandelay used their draft picks to dramatically upgrade their keepers.
- Best pick: Austin Jackson (11.2)
I see him as better-hitting Curtis Granderson with a little less pop. Eight rounds later, that sounds good. - Worst pick: Paul Konerko (2.2)
It's not that Konerko is some nightmare player, or a bad bet. He's a consistent veteran power source. I just know I didn't want to take him there, and I was frustrated when I did. - Overall Draft Grade: B+
I like my balance between young players and proven commodities. It sounds like Drew Storen is having about the worst spring training possible, but other than him, I'm excited to see how things pan out.
- Best pick: Adam Jones (9.4)
After 2009, Jones was a mega-hyped star-in-the-making. You're telling me that after a similar 2010, we've suddenly given up on him? Kudos to the Rangers for swooping in. - Worst pick: Chad Billingsley (2.4)
Initially this was going to be Gio Gonzalez. Then I realized Billingsley is similar to Gonzalez, but got picked five rounds earlier. So there you go. - Overall Draft Grade: B+
The early picks were a little bland, but I completely loved the back half of their draft. Tabata and Jones specifically were really good value.
- Best pick: Brett Gardner (3.5)
A lot of people are going to disagree with me here, but the rumors of Gardner leading off make a lot of sense. And if he's there, Gardner's a prize. - Worst pick - Tim Stauffer (6.5)
If I'm being perfectly honest, I don't know enough about Stauffer to really dismiss him. I see he's a former first round pick, #4 overall in 2003. But 2003 was a while ago. I could see Stauffer not being drafted at all, which means the sixth round is way too early. - Overall Draft Grade: C-
I just wasn't excited about most of the guys the Heroes picked up in the draft. Gardner's a nice player, and several of his guys should be solid, but nobody gets me excited.
- Best pick: Trevor Cahill (4.6)
Cahill factored into keeper discussions for his former team, the Heroes. The fact that the DamKnights were able to scoop him up in the fourth was a nice surprise for them. - Worst pick: Nick Markakis (2.6)
I used to have Markakis. He was part of my championship squad. But with 138 doubles and only 50 homers over the past three years, it's starting to look like he might just have warning track power. - Overall Draft Grade: C
I like a lot of the later pieces, but the early picks seemed to go way too safe. Bryce Harper is a nice pickup, though.
- Best pick: Homer Bailey (9.7)
Post All-Star break numbers: 10 starts, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 59 Ks in 58.1 IP. And how's this for a surprise: Bailey's still only 25. - Worst pick - Adam Lind (6.7)
I feel similar to Lind as I feel about Huff. The difference is that Lind at least has a crazy good season in his recent history. Still, I think the sixth round is too early to be taking a flier on a guy who could just be a .260/20/80 player. - Overall Draft Grade: A-
A lot of responsible picks by the SexyParties, with enough pizazz sprinkled in to keep things exciting. The lack of saves is a temporary concern, but it's always a concern, even if you draft a few closers.
- Best pick: Brandon League (13.8)
It's always nice when you can get some value out of your very late picks, and League is a nice pull. I don't expect a season of production out of him, but he could steal some saves while David Aardsma recovers. - Worst pick - Carlos Pena (7.8)
I haven't made my distaste for Pena a secret. Plus, the Pronks really just needed another potential 20/20 guy. Jose Tabata, Adam Jones, and Torii Hunter were all still available. - Overall Draft Grade: B
I don't think the Pronks got great value anywhere, but they got decent value and pretty much every pick. That sort of performance gives us a B on the report card.
- Best pick: Rajai Davis (10.9)
I don't think Davis is a fantastic real-life baseball player, but with an everyday opportunity, you can count on a lot of steals and a solid average. Good pickup. - Worst pick: Ricky Romero (4.9)
I don't like that he's being thrust into the #1 starter role, I don't like that he pitches in the AL East, in Toronto, and overall I just don't like him. I liked both of the next two picks (Colby Lewis and Phil Hughes) better than Romero. - Overall Draft Grade: B-
It was a pretty boring draft by the AutoWreckers. That usually means solid picks, and they were, but I think they could've had a little more fun.
- Best pick: Chris Young (12.10)
He's got some injury history, but he's generally been very good when healthy. The Mets are a bloodbath, but he might be a fine starter this year. - Worst pick: Howie Kendrick (11.10)
It's kind of tough to declare an eleventh round pick as a "bad pick," but Kendrick seems like a minimally valuable player. I just don't like spending a draft pick (any draft pick) on a guy whose most valuable asset is being a .295-hitting second baseman. - Overall Draft Grade: B-
I like the offense they kept, but look at the starters they drafted: Jaime Garcia, Jordan Zimmermann, Johan Santana, Chris Young, Carlos Zambrano. Would've liked to see them find someone with a little less volatility...anyone.
- Best pick: Juan Pierre (9.11)
I'm learning that I seem to like speed picks, with Gardner, Davis, and now Pierre. But it's a tough task to find enough speed when just putting together talent. Having a 50-steal weapon like Pierre in your arsenal gives you a nice way to make up ground. - Worst pick: Josh Beckett (3.11)
Beckett's a nice enough player, with upside and downside, as most players have. But I feel like I'd have been happier with a lot of the pitchers who went in the next couple rounds (Matusz, Cahill, Matt Garza, Lewis, Hughes, John Danks, Ian Kennedy). - Overall Draft Grade: A-
I really didn't think much of the Beckett pick, but the Suspects got really good value at pretty much every other pick. The two catcher picks were a little mystifying, but individually, even they were alright.
- Best pick: Lance Berkman (12.12)
Berkman's 2008 line: .312, 114 R, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 18 SB. I trust any lineup with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday to give a guy like Berkman a good chance to succeed. See Ryan Ludwick. - Worst pick - Geovany Soto (4.12) / Manny Ramirez (9.12)
The Enforcers let us all know that Soto was a mistake pick, so while it was definitely their worst pick, I figured I should pick another. Ramirez was great in 2008, but since then he's seemed to just not have his head on straight. Tampa's lineup isn't as good as you might think; I have trouble seeing Manny bounce back. - Overall Draft Grade: C+
The Soto error really hurt the flow (and caliber) of their draft, but they came back to find some nice players. I think they found some good pieces, though, particularly Gordon Beckham, Aramis Ramirez, and Berkman, along with some decent upside in Mike Moustakas and Domonic Brown.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Eulogy
I've been thinking of my dad a lot recently, for a litany of reasons. In that spirit, posted below is the eulogy I gave him.
I would like to begin by thanking everyone for all of the support that they have offered. The amount of love and thoughtfulness from the Police Department, family and friends and everyone that knew my father has been truly overwhelming. It is a true testament to the caliber of man that he was.
Joseph Aloysius Mattingly, Jr. was a man called to duty. He showed his desire for leadership and his acumen for service at an early age. He grew up in a house that was built in the 1930's with seven brothers and sisters.
One cold winter morning after a snow, when the sun was not fully up, there were suspicious noises coming from downstairs. The kids began waking each other up. The boys had decided that someone had broken into the house. Intending to investigate, Joe and Sean, the older of the three brothers, armed themselves with baseball bats. Because there were only two bats, Patrick, the youngest, was assigned a baseball glove. Patrick, disappointed, asked Joe if he would exchange the bat for the glove. Joe set down the bat, and took the glove from Patrick. He swung it viciously, showing the true potency of such a lethal weapon, and said, "Patrick, I need you on the glove." He then handed it back to Patrick, who, suddenly aware of the weight of his charge, marched defiantly to meet the intruders. The intruders, of course, were various pots and pans set out to collect water droplets falling from a leaky roof. Patrick was no less proud to have been given such responsibility in defense of the home.
It was always very clear to us that my dad loved his job. Even after achieving rank, he never forgot what it meant to be a cop. I'm sure there isn't an officer in the county that does not know of my father's penchant for issuing citations. He believed that writing a ticket was one of the best ways to offer guidance on how to avoid destructive behavior.
Over the past few days, so many of his colleagues have shared their experiences involving dad with our family. What has impressed us are the remarks that demonstrate the high level of integrity that he displayed. His one desire was that his actions would always reflect favorably on the department. I know that he would be proud of how the department has taken care of us these past few days.
With what little time he didn't devote to being a police officer, my dad was very unique in the ways that he liked to relax.
Every Saturday morning, my father could be found patrolling the county for a Honus Wagner baseball card or an original GI Joe action figure. The nicest aspect of this is that he took requests. Whether it be a trumpet or a left-handed baseball glove, he was always willing to go out of his way in search of anything. What was bad about this is...well...just ask Mom about the garage.
My father also enjoyed a good drink. Some of the fondest memories I have of my dad were on Wednesday nights, watching Law & Order and nursing a beer. He also had quite a nice assortment of teas, and enjoyed sharing the story behind how he acquired each, as he brewed a small pot. And we always looked forward to the full-bodied, homemade egg nog he prepared during the holiday season.
And "Jumpin" Joe could dance! Even without having a drink, he loved tearing up the dance floor. He was waiting for Disco to make a deserved comeback, so that he could show off his moves again.
But the way that I will remember him is as a loving and giving father. When my sister was having trouble in school after we moved, my parents requested that she be transferred to the school that she would have attended had we still been living in our old home. My father had no qualms with making the half-hour drive every day for all four years of high school, and, I believe, cherished the opportunity to spend any extra time with his children that he could.
The one thing that impressed me the most was his ability to forgive. No matter what any of us had done, or how deeply it had hurt him, he was always ready to offer his love and companionship at a moment's notice.
Many people have asked us the question of what they can do for us. I never really had a response for that. But, as I was lying in bed Monday evening, I came up with the answer. What I would ask of all of you is that you honor the memory of my father by conducting yourselves with the same level of honor and integrity that he so joyfully offered us every single day.
Thank you.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Middle Earth Draft Review: 2011
Joey wrote up draft grades last year and I thought it was pretty neat to see another person's opinion on the draft. I picked a best and worse pick and also assigned a grade. I think overall I was pretty hard with grades. No one received an A or A+. I thought to receive a grade that high I had to be blown away by value with ever pick. Also if you have one arm or beat me out for first I probably knocked you down a few. Get over it.
Those Guys:
- Best Pick - Carlos Marmol (1.1). As the attempted trade right as keeper lists demonstrates, Marmol is a keeper talent. His k/9 is one of the highest baseball has ever seen.
- Worse Pick - Aubrey Huff (7.1). I understand the big post season leading into a big year idea, however with OF, 1B, and Util full and only 3 SP on the roster at this point I think getting an SP might have been a better pick.
- Grade: B- : I like the early picks of Marmol, Rivera, and Prado. However after the Ervin Santana pick I was not a huge huge fan.
Vandelay Industries
- Best pick - Carlos Santana (1.3). In my mind, with Wainwright out for the season, Vandelay needed to go young and upside. That is what this pick did. He gives a chance for a lot of production out of a weak position and a keeper for years to come.
- Worse Pick - Chris Coghlan (12.2) I know Drew grew up playing Dabl with Chris so maybe thats why he picked him. A pretty impressive rookie campaign was followed up by a so-so 2nd year. He should improve on his numbers but without a ton of speed or power there is limited upside.
- Grade C+ : You can look at Drew's draft and not be impressed by the talent but, many high picks were traded to beef up his keepers. While the draft suffered the additions of Weeks, Ubaldo, Miggy, and Greinke set him up for years to come.
Riders of Rohan
- Best Pick - Brett Myers (6.2) Brett Myers has always had the talent to be a very reliable fantasy starter. Will he get a lot of wins... No, but solid K and ERA numbers are likely.
- Worse Pick - Rafeal Furcal (3.3) Maybe people would argue with SS being so swallow this pick needed to be made. I'm someone who never pays for position. Furcal has played over 100 games once in last three years. Rather have a closer and go with Scutaro as starter.
- B- : Its not that I hate any of the picks Joe made. I just didn't love any of them either. Maybe they are just not my kind of players but with 2nd pick I was left wanting more.
Dunedain Rangers
- Best Pick - Madison Bumgarner (5.4). I think Hughes over Bumgarner may be the choice I am least happy with in my draft. With a weak hitting division and good stuff I see Bumgarner being slightly better across the board other than wins.
- Worse Pick -Angel Pagan (6.4). Pagan had good numbers last year with close to 40 steals. However his 2nd half was weak with .264 avg and .304 OBP. I think his real production falls closer to his 2nd half.
- Grade A- : I liked this draft a lot. Garrett was able to identify and acquire a lot of talent. Bumgarner, Gio, Tabalta, Jones, and Jennings are all guys with upside. Add in solid value picks of Cuddyer, Edwin Jackson, Kelly Johnson, and you have a very good draft.
Howards Hero's
- Best Pick - Mike Napoli (4.5) During the draft I did not care for this pick at all. However looking at his situation I think he will get more AB in Texas. He also kills the ball in Texas with a HR/AB of 6.6. 30HR upside at C... yea that sounds like a good pick.
- Worse Pick - Ian Desmond (3.9) This goes back to the problem I had with the Furcal pick. However at least Joey started a run (three ss taken round 3) Nick finished it. I hate finishing runs. There was not be another SS taken for 4 rounds.
- Grade B : I wasn't blown away by the Stauffer or Desmond selections (probably NL MVP candidates after saying that) but other than that Nick was able to get good young starting pitchers and a lot of saves. Also Bedard.... come on this is his year. Solid all around draft.
Dam Knight
- Best Pick- Bryce Harper (13.6). Will he play? Maybe not. But with a young team and a 2nd to last round pick whats the risk? All upside and could lead to a steal in years to come.
- Worse Pick- Brian Fuentes (11.6). Obviously the injury news with Bailey has changed the perception of this pick however looking at this at the time of the pick I think a good middle reliever in the 11th round seemed like a random pick
- Grade C+ : I liked several picks a lot: Harper, Peavy, and Scott. However the rest of the draft had more stable guys than upside. With a young rebuilding team I would like to see more risks. Harper was a start but I wanted a little more.
Stewies SexyParties
- Best Pick - Carlos Lee (10.7). I've heard everything you have. He doesn't work out, terrible commitment etc. However for a guy to hit below .300 for the first time in five years and it to be 60 pts below seems like an outlier. Plus with such a late pick even if he's 25 90 again its solid value.
- Worse Pick - Rafael Soriano (7.7). I have come around to the whole solid relief innings over the past few years. And I do believe that Soriano will give you that. However with closers (Nunez, Gregg) and SP (Zimmerman, Chacin, Floyd) it seemed a little early for him.
- Grade A- : I hate you Mike Plundo... but God Dammit do I respect you. Solid picks from start to finish, really only Soriano pick out of place. I like Lee, Garza and Granderson among others.
Akron Pronks
- Best Pick - Brett Anderson (3.8). Anderson was very good when he was healthy last year. I worry a little because 30% of his starts were vs Sea but even taking that into account his numbers were good. Going into keeper lists I had him just outside my top 8. Mandi got him after 44 other players were selected. Injury will decide how this pick is viewed but at the moment I like it.
- Worse Pick- Carlos Pena (7.8) "Am I really this desperate for power"... "Akron Pronks select Carlos Pena 1B CHC." What a fateful 30 seconds. I hate low avg guys. I feel like avg is the toughest thing to project and because of that the hardest to pick up during season. I think the .197 avg would have scared people away for several rounds. As principal Skinner says, "Prove me wrong kids... Prove me wrong"
- Grade B : I liked a lot of what Mandi did. I think Broxton has a small place in his heart and was picked a little early but he backed it up with Kuo later. In my opinion Pena is a brain fart on an otherwise very successful draft.
Mercer Autowreckers
- Best Pick - Jhoulys Chacin (7.9). With any Colorado pitcher there is a ceiling. However with a 130+ ip and a good ERA and K rate it looks like he might be the real deal. I think he will take a step back overall. Expect flashes of 7 IP 9 K games with the occasional clunker. Still a solid value at round 7.
- Worse Pick - David Aardsma (8.9). When making this pick I think Chip thought he was healthy.... which is not the case. If he comes back in May it won't be a bad pick but with injury there is always a cause for concern.
- Grade C+ : Overall good. However I look over Chip's draft and only see one maybe two guys that have keeper upside. Added stable talent to a very talented keeper list.
Feisty Mosquitoes
- Best Pick - Chris Young (12.10) Chris Young was very good in his short season (including 2 away from Petco) with SD last year. Is there a chance he breaks down after 50-75 IP? Yes. But at round 12 to get a chance at a solid starter with a team lacking in that department I think it was a very good pick.
- Worse Pick - Howie Kendrick (11.10) In the eleventh round you really can't be too hard on any pick. However with the makeup of the mosquitoes I found it odd to pick Kendrick in this spot. Phillips is young and healthy and 1B was open. I think Berkman or Laroche would have been better options to start at 1B. (My first pick here was Chapman.... but who am I to knock someone taking a young guy with high upside. :) )
- Grade B- : I like the talent but Mosquitoes are banking on finding a lot SP on waiver wire. I'm not in love with Garcia and almost every other pitcher is coming over a serious injury or has injury concerns. However without risk there is no reward.
The Usual Suspects
- Best Pick - Michael Pineda \ John Lackey (13.11 14.11) I like both these picks for difference reasons. I wanted get some solid depth to the back of my rotation.
- Pineda was one of the top prospect pitchers on my board. He tore through AA last year and has dynamic stuff. There is a question of getting on the roster but with a solid spring I think he might get a chance.
- In Lackey I saw a perfect bounce back pick. He has always been a solid pitcher that gets wins. If I avoid starts bad matchups (vs NYY etc) I think I can get a good amount out of this last round pick.
- Worse Pick- Miguel Montero (7.11). I did something I always hate to do... I paid for position. Don't get me wrong I think a healthy Montero could hit 18 and 70 over a season but I don't know that I needed to pay a 7th round pick for it. Next catcher taken was Jesus Montero... by me. Did I get the last catcher on a tier or just over pay?
- Grade B+ : Probably closer to a B- with objective critic but I like my guys... that's why I picked them. I would have done a few things differently but I like my depth a SP and flexibility to have 50+ SB guy backing up OF. Hill is a risk but with such a late pick not a lot to pay if it works out.
Cleveland Enforcers
- Best Pick - Lance Berkman (12.12) St. Louis seems like a perfect place for Berkman to rebound. Lance struggled last year between Hou and NY. Was that age and injury catching up with him? Maybe but with such a late pick I like the upside.
- Worse Pick - Geovany Soto (4.12) Joey later told me that this was a mistake pick by Mike. Just like with Chip he would probably be first to say its not his favorite.
- Grade B : Enforcers went much younger than I thought he needed to. Carrying two catchers and possibly 2 minor leaguers could put a strain on the roster. Keeper SP will need a repeat of last year or could be an area of need.
I didn't see any team really make bonehead picks or anyone pull away from the league. The difference between a C+ and a B is probably only my personal feeling on players. Without a title to my name what the hell do I know. Every year I think the draft its harder and harder to get an advantage.
Any comments on draft? Did it occur too early or late? Miss pre-draft?
Good Luck in the upcoming season.
Friday, March 11, 2011
2011 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Keeper Analysis
I did this last year, and it was fun, and a good exercise for me, so I'm doing it again. I'll be assigning point values to each team's eight keepers. The max value for any one player is 10, the minimum is 0, so the maximum total keeper score is 80. We'll go in draft order.
One note: there was a single trade between the submission of keeper lists and the draft. After some debate, I've decided to rate the keeper lists AFTER the trade. That is, these are the keeper lists as they stood going into the draft.
Here we go.
Those Guys
Here are the standings in order of total points, along with the change from last year (and here's a link to last year's article, for your reference):
One note: there was a single trade between the submission of keeper lists and the draft. After some debate, I've decided to rate the keeper lists AFTER the trade. That is, these are the keeper lists as they stood going into the draft.
Here we go.
Those Guys
- Adrian Gonzalez, 1B - 10 points
As I suggested last year, leaving San Diego was going to be a boon for him. Now that he's gone (and into one of the best lineups in baseball), I expect big things. - Alex Rodriguez, 3B - 8 points
He's getting a little older, and his production has slipped a bit, but he's still one of the most consistently productive players in fantasy. - Mike Stanton, OF - 5 points
I don't love him this year, but he looks to have Adam Dunn upside, and in a keeper league, you bet a lot on upside. - Shane Victorino, OF - 5 points
He's a speed guy who pitches in on run production and a little bit on power. And his lineup is stacked. - Bobby Abreu, OF - 4 points
Even a slight bounce back on batting average would make Abreu a big time asset this year. But, long term, it's unlikely he produces enough for long enough to be justified. - Josh Johnson, SP - 7 points
He had a career year last year, but you've got to be a little cautious with a guy who's missed as much time as Johnson. Still, the ability is there. - Jonathan Sanchez, SP - 4 points
I drafted Sanchez, so obviously I'm a fan. He also had a career year, but the strikeouts have always been great. No reason to think he can't build on last year and be solid again. - Daniel Hudson, SP - 4 points
He was utterly dominant after being traded to the Diamondbacks. He's got a very limited track record, but there are reasons to be excited about this youngster.
- Prince Fielder, 1B - 7 points
The power is there, and it will be there, but he's kind of tough to project outside of that. And he's also kind of tough to project within that. As in, will he hit 35, or will he hit 48? - Ian Kinsler, 2B - 6 points
So much potential, and some of it realized, but the constant injuries are beginning to wear on fantasy owners. Me, mostly. - Evan Longoria, 3B - 10 points
He's an across-the-board producer at a non-outfield position; that makes him pretty damn good. - Matt Kemp, OF - 8 points
The attitude concerns are there, but so it a plethora of talent. Power, speed, average, the whole package could be in there, somewhere. - Jose Bautista, 3B/OF - 5 points
Will he be able to repeat his power explosion from 2010? Probably not. But golly, he was good last year. - Alex Rios, OF - 6 points
Ozzie Guillen's infatuation with the stolen base should continue to prove useful for Rios owners. - Jon Lester, SP - 8 points
Great strikeouts, great wins, good averages. - Clayton Kershaw, SP - 7 points
Maybe even better than Lester, but he still has trouble getting decisions. Eventually, though, I'd expect him to figure it out.
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B - 10 points
Alcohol questions aside, Cabrera is legitimately the best hitter in the American League. - Rickie Weeks, 2B - 6 points
Weeks is impossible to value in all circumstances. Six points just seemed like the most reasonable "I don't know" amount - Elvis Andrus, SS - 4 points
If shortstop wasn't so weak, Andrus would rate lower. He's really a two-category producer at this point: runs and steals. - Ichiro Suzuki, OF - 4 points
Take Andrus, add in batting average, but remove SS eligibility, and you've got Ichiro. Something tells me he'll get some more RBIs this year, though. - Zack Greinke, SP - 6 points
He's in a situation considerably better than he was in Kansas City, and the talent is all there for a rebound...or a meltdown. Should be fun to watch either way. - Ubaldo Jimenez, SP - 7 points
Ridiculous first half, solid second half. Similar overall numbers are pretty reasonable, though. - Yovani Gallardo, SP - 5 points
Awesome strikeout numbers, but he lets an awful lot of guys get on base. Something's going to give eventually, one way or the other. - Adam Wainwright, SP - 1 point
I'm less negative on this keep than other people, but it's definitely a tough one. He's a superstar pitcher, but when you KNOW he's not playing this year...though call.
- Buster Posey, C/1B - 6 points
I like Posey. But he's getting drafted in the 3rd round based on two-thirds of a season of solid production. I want to see more before I invest that kind of pick. - Adam Dunn, 1B - 4 points
Defense doesn't count, so that's good. And he's one of the safest picks in the game. - Adrian Beltre, 3B - 4 points
He hit .334 in 2004, then hit .255, .268, .276, .266, and .265 before hitting .321 last year. I'm not paying for a .300 average, and without that, he's just a decent third baseman. - Hunter Pence, OF - 5 points
He seems to get undervalued, but getting 25 HR and 14 SB with a .282 average in back to back seasons seems pretty decent to me. - Jay Bruce, OF - 4 points
He dramatically improved his batting average, but his power rate slipped. If he can ever put it all together, he'll be great, but I'm not holding my breath. - Dan Haren, SP - 6 points
He had trouble early last season, but bounced back in a big way after being traded to the Angels. I'd count on 3.00, 1.15, 175 Ks and 15 wins. - Jered Weaver, SP - 7 points
He's becoming less and less hittable each year. I like that kind of trend. - Neftali Feliz, SP/RP - 4 points
I like Feliz at closer because he's a known commodity there, but if he can translate his success to starting pitching, his value goes up.
- Ryan Howard, 1B - 8 points
He's basically the same as Prince Fielder, except you trust him a little more because of his crazy good lineup - Mark Teixeira, 1B - 8 points
I'm a believer in Teixeira. I know he's been up and down in New York, but I just can't see him not succeeding. - Dan Uggla, 2B - 8 points
I tried to tell you all, Uggla's the man. A slide down to about .265 wouldn't shock me, but 30 HR and 90 runs and RBIs at second base is effin' good. - Mark Reynolds, 3B - 3 points
I don't know, maybe he'll be good? He's the biggest question mark on a team full of them. - Jacoby Ellsbury, OF - 6 points
If he can stay healthy, I'd expect 60 steals and 100 runs, with a .300-ish average. - Matt Cain, SP - 5 points
He's evolved into a nice little pitcher. And, he won't have to match up against other aces, which is always nice. - Wandy Rodriguez, SP - 3 points
Wandy's a tough guy to figure out. But at this point, I see him as just a useful pitcher...not so much a keeper. - (no 8th keeper) - 2 points
Getting the supplemental pick isn't worthless.
- Joe Mauer, C - 7 points
He may have regressed on the power numbers from 2009, but a great batting average and good run production are givens with Mauer. - Justin Morneau, 1B - 8 points
We're all pulling for Morneau to get past his concussion and get back to concussing baseballs. What? Too soon? - Robinson Cano, 2B - 9 points
Cano's a very nice player, and appears to be a legitimate .315 hitter. I'm just not ready to push him into that tenth point just yet. - Corey Hart, OF - 4 points
There was a point when Hart was all the rage as a power/speed guy. But last year, he mostly hit home runs...mostly. - Grady Sizemore, OF - 3 points
What can you say about Sizemore? We know he's got speed and power. We don't know if he's healthy, or if he'll ever hit .280 again. - Ricky Nolasco, SP - 4 points
Might be this year's Jonathan Sanchez? - Jeremy Hellickson, SP - 4 points
Uber pitching prospect who flashed his stuff last year. I'm in. - Joe Nathan, RP - 2 points
His spring has been encouraging so far, but coming back from surgery is always risky.
- Chase Utley, 2B - 8 points
Healthy, Utley is worth 10 points easy, but it seems like this knee injury has legs. - Pedro Alvarez, 3B - 5 points
He's supposed to be the real deal, and he's already shown major league pop. He doesn't have to improve much to be keeper-worthy again next year. - Hanley Ramirez, SS - 10 points
The best. - Ryan Braun, OF - 10 points
Just a great producer. His power numbers were down last year, but I see that as fluky, not cause for concern. - Andrew McCutchen, OF - 8 points
Don't undervalue McCutchen. He's potentially a plus in every category except RBIs, and he's still only 24. - Colby Rasmus, OF - 5 points
Two full seasons, but he's still just a .263 career hitter, and hasn't shown much speed. Might be more similar to Jay Bruce than we anticipated. - Cliff Lee, SP - 8 points
He's been all around the world in the past few years, but he's posted great numbers everywhere. Now that he's happy and settled, I expect him to really hit stride. - Roy Oswalt, SP - 7 points
Uh oh. You know what we did? We forgot how good Oswalt can be.
- Victor Martinez, C/1B - 8 points
He should be going ahead of Posey in every draft. You know why? Because Posey's upside is Martinez. - Kevin Youkilis, 1B - 7 points
He should pick up 3B eligibility early this season, and his contributions in runs, RBIs, and batting average should only go up with the additions to the Red Sox lineup. - Kendrys Morales, 1B - 5 points
Yahoo says it's Kendrys now. Anyways, he's already got one great season and a tragic injury on his resume. All he needs now is a bounce back and he'll have a movie made about him. - Brian Roberts, 2B - 4 points
Back injuries are always cause for concern, but if he's able to straighten things out, he's a great option at a thin position. - Shin-Soo Choo, OF - 7 points
You can only go .300-80-20-80-20 so many times before people start betting on it. Two, actually. The number is two. - Jayson Werth, OF - 6 points
I don't expect Werth to hit .296 again (he's a career .272 hitter), but the rest of last year's numbers seem in line, even in a weaker Nationals lineup. - Drew Stubbs, OF - 5 points
Way too many strikeouts, but he's still young. Another guy I should have never dropped. - Tim Lincecum, SP - 9 points
Other than an 0-5, 7.82/1.82 August, Lincecum was tremendous again last season. I've still got him rated as a top 5 pitcher.
- Brian McCann, C - 5 points
It's tough to get consistent play out of a catcher, and McCann is one of the most reliable guys out there. The Wreckers did pay a ton for him, though. - Joey Votto, 1B - 10 points
He's a slightly leaner Miguel Cabrera. - Dustin Pedroia, 2B - 6 points
Injuries ended his season last year, but he appears fully healthy and ready to do his part in the stacked Boston offense. - Derek Jeter, SS - 6 points
Even a repeat of last year's "down" performance (.270-111-10-67-18) would be very solid, considering this year's crop of shortstops. - Andre Ethier, OF - 4 points
We're all still waiting for Ethier to put it all together. Maybe Don Mattingly is the guy to help him do it? - Roy Halladay, SP - 10 points
No starting pitcher is better. - Felix Hernandez, SP - 10 points
But Felix comes close. - Heath Bell, RP - 4 points
He may still just be a closer, but another great year adds "proven" to his list of characteristics.
- Brandon Phillips, 2B - 6 points
He'll hit about .270 with about 20 homers and about 20 steals. At second base, that works. - Ryan Zimmerman, 3B - 5 points
I think Zimmerman's a fine player, but he might be one of the more overrated guys in fantasy baseball. He'll be solid, but unspectacular. - Troy Tulowitzki, SS - 10 points
It's tough to trust him to stay healthy, but even missing 40 games last year, Tulo was extremely good. Expect more good things. - Carl Crawford, OF - 10 points
You can't tell me that Crawford's value will go down in that lineup. You just can't. - Matt Holliday, OF - 8 points
This cat can hit. Oh, and batting next to Albert Pujols never hurt anybody's numbers. - Justin Upton, OF - 7 points
The guy is just 23 years old. If he can play 150+ games in 2011, he's basically a lock for 25-25. - CC Sabathia, SP - 8 points
Sort of like Adam Dunn, CC's reliability gets undervalued sometimes. He's had at least 17 wins and 197 strikeouts in each of the past four seasons. - Stephen Strasburg, SP - 1 point
Mostly the Mosquitoes get a point for guts. Strasburg is out until at least September.
- Albert Pujols, 1B - 10 points
Seriously, let's argue about this. - David Wright, 3B - 9 points
I'm willing to look at Wright's down 2009 as an anomaly as long as he is. - Jimmy Rollins, SS - 5 points
Tough to make a call on Rollins. His upside still puts him as a potential 25/40 player, but he's been way off of that recently. - Nelson Cruz, OF - 5 points
If you look at Cruz's numbers, you're going to be surprised. He might pull it all together this year and challenge for the MVP. - Jason Heyward, OF - 6 points
Heyward really seemed to settle in during the second half of 2010. All the physical tools are there to take the next step. Matt Kemp upside is what I see. - Justin Verlander, SP - 7 points
Back to back fantastic seasons means Verlander's legit...probably. Have to wonder what happened in 2008, though. - Tommy Hanson, SP - 6 points
Hanson's got all the makings of a star, and his August and September were just filthy. Of course, plenty of guys can be stars; let's see if he can come through. - Mat Latos, SP - 6 points
Latos was remarkable last season, a plus in all the starting pitching categories. I expect a bit of a letdown, but it's tough to be that good and not be mostly legit...heck, even Jeff D'Amico couldn't put up those kind of Ks.
- Jose Reyes, SS - 8 points
Health is a minor concern, the lineup is a minor concern, but the player is good. Very good. - Carlos Gonzalez, OF - 9 points
I've read a few articles that try to temper Gonzalez's insane 2010 season, but those kinds of numbers don't just happen. Not all of them at once. - Josh Hamilton, OF - 8 points
One of the harder high-end players to judge, Hamilton showed last year that he can be among the best. I choose to bank on his talent and competitiveness. - B.J. Upton, OF - 4 points
Upton is not a power hitter. He averaged 15.5 homers per season over the past four years (in an average of 143 games per season). He's fine for steals, anything else is gravy. - Cole Hamels, SP - 6 points
Nice rebound after a frustrating 2009. However, his win-loss record seems awfully unimpressive for a team averaging 94 wins over the last three years. - David Price, SP - 7 points
Listen to these home numbers for Price: 9-2, 107 Ks in 114.2 IP, 1.96 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. Who knew orange juice was so good for you? - Francisco Liriano, SP - 4 points
Liriano seems to be fully healthy and recovered from arm surgery that cost him the entire 2007 season, but he may never be the same again. - Max Scherzer, SP - 4 points
Because there weren't enough guys I bailed on that ended up being good. Thanks Max.
Here are the standings in order of total points, along with the change from last year (and here's a link to last year's article, for your reference):
- Stewies SexyParties - 61 points (+1 from last year)
- Riders of Rohan - 57 points (-8)
- Feisty Mosquitoes - 55 points (-7)
- Mercer AutoWreckers - 55 points (+3)
- The Usual Suspects - 54 points (+4)
- Akron Pronks - 51 points (-3)
- Cleveland Enforcers - 50 points (+1)
- Those Guys - 47 points (+2)
- Vandelay Industries - 43 points (-8)
- Howard's Heroes - 43 points (-16)
- Columbus DamKnights - 41 points (-7)
- Dunedain Rangers - 40 points (+1)
Monday, March 7, 2011
The Amtrack AutoTrain
I recently went on a trip to Disney World, and I used Amtrack's AutoTrain service to get there. The trip down was distinctly different from the trip back, so I'll talk about them separately.
From Lorton, Virginia to Sanford, Florida
On the way down, we got three seats in the coach car, one apiece for myself, my mom, and my youngest brother. The seats are distributed in rows of two, and no one sat in the fourth seat near us, so we had four seats between the three of us. The seats were fairly comfortable, except that I was wearing jeans, and eventually you don't want to be trying to lie down in jeans. But that's my own fault, not the fault of the train.
The train provides a dinner to each passenger, and dinner was pretty good. I got some kind of fish, cod I think, as did my brother. My mom got a chicken meal, and the fourth guy sitting at our table (a stranger) got a beef dinner. Overall it was tasty, certainly better than the kind of stuff I usually cook up. Apparently, the guy who sat with us was from New Jersey, and he knew a woman named Stacy, a friend of my mom's, before Stacy moved from New Jersey to Maryland. This of course prompted my mom to make "small world" references for hours, though the fact that we were on our way to Disney World probably helped that as well.
Sleeping was less awesome. I had a cold, and as I said, the jeans weren't great, so I had trouble getting comfortable. Altogether, I probably only got about 90-120 minutes of sleep. It's not a perfect setup, but I do think that I'd do better in a future trip, knowing about wearing the right pants/shorts, and trying to, you know, not be sick.
Arriving in Sanford, we waited about forty minutes for our car to be unloaded, then headed off to Disney World. It was only about another 40 minutes to get there, and we had a car to use the whole time. That advantage cannot be understated, as you save quite a bit of money being able to buy groceries at a grocery store, rather than at the convenience shops at Disney resorts.
The Return Trip
The trip back from Florida was very different. First, we were ending a trip to Disney World. So we were all kind of bummed about that.
From a more logistical standpoint, the trip back was considerably sparser than the trip down. I guess there were a lot of "snow birds" heading down to Florida in January, but not a lot of people heading back north. As such, the price of the trip was considerably cheaper. So, in an attempt to maximize our experience, my mom upgraded us from coach seats to one of the sleeper suites. These suites have two pull-down beds in each room (we got two rooms), as well as bathrooms and sinks in the room.
Theoretically, this all sounds great. But the bathrooms were far too narrow, and I think they'd be too narrow even for someone of average size. So I ended up using the community bathrooms a couple times, despite the fact that we had accommodations in our room. The beds were also just not that great. The lower bunk starts out as a couch, and honestly, I think it's more comfortable for sleeping in couch form than in bed form. But unfortunately, I didn't realize that until after the attendant had switched them into beds.
Dinner tasted good enough, but after being spoiled with fantastic food at Disney World for nearly a week, there was really no chance it was going to measure up. Also, I deduced that something I had didn't agree with me. My stomach felt funky most of the night, and I got really nauseous on the drive back to my house from the train station. Lack of sleep probably didn't help that, either.
Overall Thoughts
I would take the AutoTrain again, I think. You can have all sorts of ideas going into an experience like that, but you can't really know what it's going to be like until you do it. Now that I've done it, I do feel like I could prepare a lot better to be able to get through the trip in the best shape.
My thinking is this: assume you're not going to get any sleep. Depending on your accommodations, you might be able to, but you want to prepare for the possibility that you won't. This means that you'll want to sleep as late as you can on the day of your trip, and try to figure out something to do early in Florida when you get there. Early check-in would be a beautiful thing for riders.
But if you've got a good group, a group that can entertain each other for hours and hours, it just might be the best way to get down south. Especially if you're like me, and could do without plane trips.
From Lorton, Virginia to Sanford, Florida
On the way down, we got three seats in the coach car, one apiece for myself, my mom, and my youngest brother. The seats are distributed in rows of two, and no one sat in the fourth seat near us, so we had four seats between the three of us. The seats were fairly comfortable, except that I was wearing jeans, and eventually you don't want to be trying to lie down in jeans. But that's my own fault, not the fault of the train.
The train provides a dinner to each passenger, and dinner was pretty good. I got some kind of fish, cod I think, as did my brother. My mom got a chicken meal, and the fourth guy sitting at our table (a stranger) got a beef dinner. Overall it was tasty, certainly better than the kind of stuff I usually cook up. Apparently, the guy who sat with us was from New Jersey, and he knew a woman named Stacy, a friend of my mom's, before Stacy moved from New Jersey to Maryland. This of course prompted my mom to make "small world" references for hours, though the fact that we were on our way to Disney World probably helped that as well.
Sleeping was less awesome. I had a cold, and as I said, the jeans weren't great, so I had trouble getting comfortable. Altogether, I probably only got about 90-120 minutes of sleep. It's not a perfect setup, but I do think that I'd do better in a future trip, knowing about wearing the right pants/shorts, and trying to, you know, not be sick.
Arriving in Sanford, we waited about forty minutes for our car to be unloaded, then headed off to Disney World. It was only about another 40 minutes to get there, and we had a car to use the whole time. That advantage cannot be understated, as you save quite a bit of money being able to buy groceries at a grocery store, rather than at the convenience shops at Disney resorts.
The Return Trip
The trip back from Florida was very different. First, we were ending a trip to Disney World. So we were all kind of bummed about that.
From a more logistical standpoint, the trip back was considerably sparser than the trip down. I guess there were a lot of "snow birds" heading down to Florida in January, but not a lot of people heading back north. As such, the price of the trip was considerably cheaper. So, in an attempt to maximize our experience, my mom upgraded us from coach seats to one of the sleeper suites. These suites have two pull-down beds in each room (we got two rooms), as well as bathrooms and sinks in the room.
Theoretically, this all sounds great. But the bathrooms were far too narrow, and I think they'd be too narrow even for someone of average size. So I ended up using the community bathrooms a couple times, despite the fact that we had accommodations in our room. The beds were also just not that great. The lower bunk starts out as a couch, and honestly, I think it's more comfortable for sleeping in couch form than in bed form. But unfortunately, I didn't realize that until after the attendant had switched them into beds.
Dinner tasted good enough, but after being spoiled with fantastic food at Disney World for nearly a week, there was really no chance it was going to measure up. Also, I deduced that something I had didn't agree with me. My stomach felt funky most of the night, and I got really nauseous on the drive back to my house from the train station. Lack of sleep probably didn't help that, either.
Overall Thoughts
I would take the AutoTrain again, I think. You can have all sorts of ideas going into an experience like that, but you can't really know what it's going to be like until you do it. Now that I've done it, I do feel like I could prepare a lot better to be able to get through the trip in the best shape.
My thinking is this: assume you're not going to get any sleep. Depending on your accommodations, you might be able to, but you want to prepare for the possibility that you won't. This means that you'll want to sleep as late as you can on the day of your trip, and try to figure out something to do early in Florida when you get there. Early check-in would be a beautiful thing for riders.
But if you've got a good group, a group that can entertain each other for hours and hours, it just might be the best way to get down south. Especially if you're like me, and could do without plane trips.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Fantasy Baseball 2011 - First Round
Two years ago I did a mental exercise of sorts and drafted my own first and second rounds of a 12-team fantasy baseball league. I didn't do it last year, but I'm ready to have another go. Again, I only do the first couple rounds, because I don't want to give away any of my personal information about guys I might be targeting when my ultra-competitive keeper league drafts this Saturday. But the first two rounds are the kind of hardball decisions that can make or break a draft. So let's get down to it.
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins - I'll summarize my argument for taking Ramirez over Albert Pujols. Shortstop is miserable this year. Hanley is an across-the-board producer at the game's weakest non-catcher position.
2. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals - Pujols is the epitome of reliability. His .312 average last year was actually 19 points lower than his career average. The guy is a hitting machine, and you won't be unhappy with him, even if you take him first.
3. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - This is where your draft list gets a lot tougher. So I'll repeat: shortstop is miserable this year. Tulowitzki has had a couple of really nice seasons, and just a filthy September: .322, 30 R, 15 HR, 40 RBI. Even after only playing 18 games in June and July, his season was good enough to rate in the top 25 in Yahoo's ranking system. If he can stay healthy, it looks like he's the real deal, and his wide contributions at a thin position make him one of the more useful guys out there.
4. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds - Almost every list I saw coming into this season actually had Miguel Cabrera at #3, behind Pujols and Ramirez. The thing is, Votto has all the pedigree that Cabrera has, he puts up the same kind of numbers, but he's got the ability to contribute on the basepaths as well. Add in the question marks that we're hearing about Cabrera's drinking issues, which could cost him some playing time this season, and I think Votto is a decidedly better pick this season.
5. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays - Third base isn't quite shortstop, but it's still a fairly tough position to fill. And Longoria is another 5 category contributor who's valuable no matter where you play him. It's also worth mentioning that his 22 home runs last year were actually a career low. An uptick back to around 30 HR is completely reasonable. Partner that with a .285 average, 100 runs and RBI, and the potential for double-digit steals, and I think we're happy.
6. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers - Listen, on a basic, baseball-only level, Cabrera is better than everybody except for Pujols. He's a fantastic hitter with tremendous power, and he posts stats every year, without fail. But there are two small factors that pull Cabrera down from #3 to #6 in my book. First, the aforementioned alcohol issues. I'm not too concerned with it affecting his on-field performance (it doesn't seem to have ever had an impact in the past), but with the legal system being involved again, there's the chance of missing some time. Second, he's still a first basemen. I mean that in two regards: he's only 1B eligible, and he doesn't steal any bases.
7. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies - This is one spot where I tend to differ from general fantasy baseball opinions. Most people will have Robinson Cano as their #1 second baseman. But Utley is a completely proven commodity, who from 2005-2009 averaged the following stat line: .301, 111 R, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 15 SB. He was injured for part of last year, but came back and looked fine. He had 8 multi-hit games in September. I'll bet on Utley every time.
8. Carl Crawford, OF, Red Sox - A lot of people are going to tell you that Crawford's speed numbers will go down because he'll end up batting 2nd or 3rd in the Red Sox lineup. Those people are retarded. Crawford batted in the two-hole 408 times last year, and in the three-hole 192 times. Will he steal 50 bases? Probably not. But he's a very skilled hitter with pop and speed, and he's going into a lineup that might be the best in baseball. I'd expect a broad range of statistical contributions.
9. David Wright, 3B, Mets - Two years ago, David Wright was a "question mark." His power dipped to 10 HR and 72 RBI, his steals spiked to 27, but his batting average stayed high (.307). In 2010, Wright got back to his normal line, though he posted the lowest average of his career at .283. I trust the overall package, though. Wright will always find a way to be a fantasy force, even if his team is in constant disarray. Constant, extreme disarray.
10. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies - Alright, chances are he's not going to go 34-26 again. And it's almost a certainty that his batting average will drop off from the crazy .336 he hit last year. The thing is..."almost"..."chances are"...but what if? He certainly showed that he has the capacity to be a nightmare for opposing pitchers, and a ridiculous fantasy contributor (#1 ranked player in Yahoo last season). I wouldn't necessarily recommend Gonzalez as a pick for everybody here, but if you're pretty confident in your ability to draft down the board, his upside is tremendous.
11. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers - Ever since he came into the league, Braun has been a spectacularly steady producer for fantasy owners. Very good power, good speed, career .307 hitter, plenty of run production. Basically, Braun is exactly what you're looking for if Carlos Gonzalez looked too risky for you.
12. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox - This tier of first basemen is a little tough to analyze, until you actually start to consider the difference in Gonzalez's situation between last year and this year. In 2010, Gonzalez hit 36 points higher on the road, and hit 20 HR away from Petco, versus just 11 in San Diego. Partner that with the fact that he goes from the Padres (22nd in the majors in runs scored) to the Red Sox (2nd), and you're looking at a very real chance of a .300-110-35-110 season out of Gonzalez...as a floor.
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins - I'll summarize my argument for taking Ramirez over Albert Pujols. Shortstop is miserable this year. Hanley is an across-the-board producer at the game's weakest non-catcher position.
2. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals - Pujols is the epitome of reliability. His .312 average last year was actually 19 points lower than his career average. The guy is a hitting machine, and you won't be unhappy with him, even if you take him first.
3. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - This is where your draft list gets a lot tougher. So I'll repeat: shortstop is miserable this year. Tulowitzki has had a couple of really nice seasons, and just a filthy September: .322, 30 R, 15 HR, 40 RBI. Even after only playing 18 games in June and July, his season was good enough to rate in the top 25 in Yahoo's ranking system. If he can stay healthy, it looks like he's the real deal, and his wide contributions at a thin position make him one of the more useful guys out there.
4. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds - Almost every list I saw coming into this season actually had Miguel Cabrera at #3, behind Pujols and Ramirez. The thing is, Votto has all the pedigree that Cabrera has, he puts up the same kind of numbers, but he's got the ability to contribute on the basepaths as well. Add in the question marks that we're hearing about Cabrera's drinking issues, which could cost him some playing time this season, and I think Votto is a decidedly better pick this season.
5. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays - Third base isn't quite shortstop, but it's still a fairly tough position to fill. And Longoria is another 5 category contributor who's valuable no matter where you play him. It's also worth mentioning that his 22 home runs last year were actually a career low. An uptick back to around 30 HR is completely reasonable. Partner that with a .285 average, 100 runs and RBI, and the potential for double-digit steals, and I think we're happy.
6. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers - Listen, on a basic, baseball-only level, Cabrera is better than everybody except for Pujols. He's a fantastic hitter with tremendous power, and he posts stats every year, without fail. But there are two small factors that pull Cabrera down from #3 to #6 in my book. First, the aforementioned alcohol issues. I'm not too concerned with it affecting his on-field performance (it doesn't seem to have ever had an impact in the past), but with the legal system being involved again, there's the chance of missing some time. Second, he's still a first basemen. I mean that in two regards: he's only 1B eligible, and he doesn't steal any bases.
7. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies - This is one spot where I tend to differ from general fantasy baseball opinions. Most people will have Robinson Cano as their #1 second baseman. But Utley is a completely proven commodity, who from 2005-2009 averaged the following stat line: .301, 111 R, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 15 SB. He was injured for part of last year, but came back and looked fine. He had 8 multi-hit games in September. I'll bet on Utley every time.
8. Carl Crawford, OF, Red Sox - A lot of people are going to tell you that Crawford's speed numbers will go down because he'll end up batting 2nd or 3rd in the Red Sox lineup. Those people are retarded. Crawford batted in the two-hole 408 times last year, and in the three-hole 192 times. Will he steal 50 bases? Probably not. But he's a very skilled hitter with pop and speed, and he's going into a lineup that might be the best in baseball. I'd expect a broad range of statistical contributions.
9. David Wright, 3B, Mets - Two years ago, David Wright was a "question mark." His power dipped to 10 HR and 72 RBI, his steals spiked to 27, but his batting average stayed high (.307). In 2010, Wright got back to his normal line, though he posted the lowest average of his career at .283. I trust the overall package, though. Wright will always find a way to be a fantasy force, even if his team is in constant disarray. Constant, extreme disarray.
10. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies - Alright, chances are he's not going to go 34-26 again. And it's almost a certainty that his batting average will drop off from the crazy .336 he hit last year. The thing is..."almost"..."chances are"...but what if? He certainly showed that he has the capacity to be a nightmare for opposing pitchers, and a ridiculous fantasy contributor (#1 ranked player in Yahoo last season). I wouldn't necessarily recommend Gonzalez as a pick for everybody here, but if you're pretty confident in your ability to draft down the board, his upside is tremendous.
11. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers - Ever since he came into the league, Braun has been a spectacularly steady producer for fantasy owners. Very good power, good speed, career .307 hitter, plenty of run production. Basically, Braun is exactly what you're looking for if Carlos Gonzalez looked too risky for you.
12. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox - This tier of first basemen is a little tough to analyze, until you actually start to consider the difference in Gonzalez's situation between last year and this year. In 2010, Gonzalez hit 36 points higher on the road, and hit 20 HR away from Petco, versus just 11 in San Diego. Partner that with the fact that he goes from the Padres (22nd in the majors in runs scored) to the Red Sox (2nd), and you're looking at a very real chance of a .300-110-35-110 season out of Gonzalez...as a floor.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Why I'm Taking Hanley Over Pujols
As you might have been able to tell from the title of this post, I'm assuming some level of knowledge with regards to fantasy baseball among readers of this article. If you're uninterested in fantasy baseball, you're probably better off waiting until April, when the NFL draft comes around, and the NHL season draws to a close.
Every list I look at has Albert Pujols as its #1 player. He's the consensus first player that should come off the board in every league. And really, you can never go wrong acquiring Albert Pujols. He's a megastar, unquestionably the best hitter in baseball. He gives you batting average, runs, home runs, and RBI, all in spades, and even tosses in a couple steals, because why not?
But if it's me with the #1 overall pick, or setting up a top __ list, or deciding how to allocate my auction funds, Hanley Ramirez is at the top of my rankings. Since it'd be a pretty boring post if I didn't, I'll explain why.
(By the way, this article assumes a 12-team league. In a 10-team league, position eligibility loses some of its importance, and I think makes it a dead heat between Hanley and Pujols).
We'll start with a look at their stats. These are their average 5x5 stats over the past five years (starting with Hanley's first full season):
Ramirez: .313, 112 runs, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 39 SB
Pujols: .330, 111 runs, 41 HR, 122 RBI, 9 SB
Obviously you're ecstatic with either of those lines. Hanley gives you across the board plus production other than RBI, and Pujols will post outstanding numbers in four different categories. Based purely on numbers, you're probably leaning towards Pujols, and that's perfectly reasonable. You're thinking, "Oh, I can just draft Michael Bourn in the 11th round to take care of my steals." And you can, of course you can. I won't ever say that taking Pujols first overall is a bad pick. It's a safe pick, a sure thing, and you'd be following the advice of all the experts.
But not my advice (notice how I just labeled myself a non-expert...oops!). I'm assuming you've all done ten or twelve fantasy baseball drafts, yes? When you're going through your draft, true or false, you much more often find yourself trying to find a reasonable steals guy to draft than a reasonable power guy to draft?
Of course it's steals. The thing about steals guys is that, when it comes to baseball, they're actually not all that valuable. Sure, speed is nice, and if you can be a very effective basestealer, you can put yourself into a position to score a lot of runs. But a bopper will always be more valuable, have a more solidified lineup spot, and thus, be a safer pick in the middle rounds. Think about guys like Dave Roberts and Eric Young, speed guys who disappeared because their speed wasn't enough to keep them playing every day.
The speed of Hanley acts as a counter-weight to Pujols' power numbers. Now, Pujols still has a 17 point edge in batting average. What position does he play again? First base? And Hanley plays...shortstop, that's right. But is position eligibility something you even want to take into account at the top of the draft?
Umm...yes? Why is Robinson Cano's average draft position 9.9? Because it's so impossible to find a .315 hitter who gets 25 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 runs? Kevin Youkilis is going 19 picks later. Vlad Guerrero is going 107 picks later. The reason Cano is so enticing (beyond his talent) is that he's a second baseman.
To wrap it all up, what position would rather be in 22 picks: you've got a huge-hitting 1B and holes at all the tougher positions to fill, or you've got a do-everything SS, and can wait for the right 1B at the right time in the draft? As a bit of reference, here are a couple guys at each position, their numbers from last year, and their average draft position (ignoring guys whose ADP is less than 24, since theoretically they won't be available, and guys with multiple position eligibility):
1B
The ultimate scenario would be if Jose Reyes were to fall to your second round pick, but there's just no way you could count on that. And if you miss out on Reyes, you're sifting through the bargain bin at shortstop. Meanwhile, you should be able to get Morales or Morneau with your 5th round pick (#49), or Konerko all the way down in the 7th (#73). Or, if you wanted to just ignore 1B for a while, both Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche had at least 19 HR, 75 R, and 80 RBI, and they're both going after pick #200, putting their draft spot somewhere in the middle of the 16th round.
You know what shortstop falls in that area? Yunel Escobar (.256, 60 R, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 6 SB in 135 games).
Take Hanley. Unless you're in the same league as me, and I've got the #2 pick. In that scenario, Albert Pujols is a no-brainer. :)
Every list I look at has Albert Pujols as its #1 player. He's the consensus first player that should come off the board in every league. And really, you can never go wrong acquiring Albert Pujols. He's a megastar, unquestionably the best hitter in baseball. He gives you batting average, runs, home runs, and RBI, all in spades, and even tosses in a couple steals, because why not?
But if it's me with the #1 overall pick, or setting up a top __ list, or deciding how to allocate my auction funds, Hanley Ramirez is at the top of my rankings. Since it'd be a pretty boring post if I didn't, I'll explain why.
(By the way, this article assumes a 12-team league. In a 10-team league, position eligibility loses some of its importance, and I think makes it a dead heat between Hanley and Pujols).
We'll start with a look at their stats. These are their average 5x5 stats over the past five years (starting with Hanley's first full season):
Ramirez: .313, 112 runs, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 39 SB
Pujols: .330, 111 runs, 41 HR, 122 RBI, 9 SB
Obviously you're ecstatic with either of those lines. Hanley gives you across the board plus production other than RBI, and Pujols will post outstanding numbers in four different categories. Based purely on numbers, you're probably leaning towards Pujols, and that's perfectly reasonable. You're thinking, "Oh, I can just draft Michael Bourn in the 11th round to take care of my steals." And you can, of course you can. I won't ever say that taking Pujols first overall is a bad pick. It's a safe pick, a sure thing, and you'd be following the advice of all the experts.
But not my advice (notice how I just labeled myself a non-expert...oops!). I'm assuming you've all done ten or twelve fantasy baseball drafts, yes? When you're going through your draft, true or false, you much more often find yourself trying to find a reasonable steals guy to draft than a reasonable power guy to draft?
Of course it's steals. The thing about steals guys is that, when it comes to baseball, they're actually not all that valuable. Sure, speed is nice, and if you can be a very effective basestealer, you can put yourself into a position to score a lot of runs. But a bopper will always be more valuable, have a more solidified lineup spot, and thus, be a safer pick in the middle rounds. Think about guys like Dave Roberts and Eric Young, speed guys who disappeared because their speed wasn't enough to keep them playing every day.
The speed of Hanley acts as a counter-weight to Pujols' power numbers. Now, Pujols still has a 17 point edge in batting average. What position does he play again? First base? And Hanley plays...shortstop, that's right. But is position eligibility something you even want to take into account at the top of the draft?
Umm...yes? Why is Robinson Cano's average draft position 9.9? Because it's so impossible to find a .315 hitter who gets 25 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 runs? Kevin Youkilis is going 19 picks later. Vlad Guerrero is going 107 picks later. The reason Cano is so enticing (beyond his talent) is that he's a second baseman.
To wrap it all up, what position would rather be in 22 picks: you've got a huge-hitting 1B and holes at all the tougher positions to fill, or you've got a do-everything SS, and can wait for the right 1B at the right time in the draft? As a bit of reference, here are a couple guys at each position, their numbers from last year, and their average draft position (ignoring guys whose ADP is less than 24, since theoretically they won't be available, and guys with multiple position eligibility):
1B
- Kevin Youkilis* (.307, 77 R, 19 HR, 62 RBI in 102 games) - ADP of 28.6
- Adam Dunn (.260, 85 R, 38 HR, 103 RBI) - ADP of 50.6
- Kendry Morales (.290, 29 R, 11 HR, 39 RBI in 51 games) - ADP of 59.6
- Justin Morneau (.345, 53 R, 18 HR, 56 RBI in 81 games) - ADP of 60.3
- Billy Butler (.318, 77 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI) - ADP of 66.5
- Paul Konerko (.312, 89 R, 39 HR, 111 RBI) - ADP of 93.4
- Jose Reyes (.282, 83 R, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 30 SB in 133 games) - ADP of 27.2
- Jimmy Rollins (.243, 48 R, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 17 SB in 88 games) - ADP of 44.6
- Derek Jeter (.270, 111 R, 10 HR, 67 RBI, 18 SB) - ADP of 52.5
- Alexei Ramirez (.282, 83 R, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB) - ADP of 70.2
- Elvis Andrus (.265, 88 R, 0 HR, 35 RB, 32 SB) - ADP of 99.3
- Stephen Drew (.278, 83 R, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 10 SB) - ADP of 100.4
The ultimate scenario would be if Jose Reyes were to fall to your second round pick, but there's just no way you could count on that. And if you miss out on Reyes, you're sifting through the bargain bin at shortstop. Meanwhile, you should be able to get Morales or Morneau with your 5th round pick (#49), or Konerko all the way down in the 7th (#73). Or, if you wanted to just ignore 1B for a while, both Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche had at least 19 HR, 75 R, and 80 RBI, and they're both going after pick #200, putting their draft spot somewhere in the middle of the 16th round.
You know what shortstop falls in that area? Yunel Escobar (.256, 60 R, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 6 SB in 135 games).
Take Hanley. Unless you're in the same league as me, and I've got the #2 pick. In that scenario, Albert Pujols is a no-brainer. :)
Monday, February 14, 2011
Not-So-Super Idea, Mario
If you're a hockey fan, you've heard/read Mario Lemieux's comments about the fracas between the Islanders and the Penguins last weekend. He decried the punishments as insufficient (a perfectly reasonable stance; the contest was a bloodbath), and then spewed this nonsense:
I had a bunch of ideas for this article. Metaphors, analogies, and other comments. And then I read what other people have already written, and they've outlined it pretty well already.
My best thought is this: really, truly, who gives a shit about Mario Lemieux in today's NHL? He's an owner, one of thirty. If any owner doesn't want to be a part of the league, you know what he can do? Sell the team. There would be plenty of wealthy investors very interested in purchasing a team with the national appeal of the Penguins, and a brand new stadium to boot. Mark Cuban has expressed interest in the past.
Would it feel weird for the league to turn its back on one of its greatest players? Yes, of course. And Penguins fans would be crushed; the man who saved their team back when it was terrible feeling so wronged by the league that he abandoned it? No small story. But once Sidney Crosby gets back on the ice, Penguins fans will put aside feelings of betrayal on behalf of Mario, and get back to hating the Capitals and rooting for their team.
As I said, other people have written pieces expressing many of my other sentiments, so I'll just link them here. And here. And also here.
"If the events relating to Friday night reflect the state of the league, I need to re-think whether I want to be a part of it."Am I the only one who had flashbacks to another whiny Pittsburgh sports figure? James Harrison said he considered retiring because of the NFL's new commitment to follow rules already in their rulebooks. Now, a hockey legend, maybe the second best player of all time, says he might want to end his relationship with his sport because a few Islanders weren't suspended enough?
I had a bunch of ideas for this article. Metaphors, analogies, and other comments. And then I read what other people have already written, and they've outlined it pretty well already.
My best thought is this: really, truly, who gives a shit about Mario Lemieux in today's NHL? He's an owner, one of thirty. If any owner doesn't want to be a part of the league, you know what he can do? Sell the team. There would be plenty of wealthy investors very interested in purchasing a team with the national appeal of the Penguins, and a brand new stadium to boot. Mark Cuban has expressed interest in the past.
Would it feel weird for the league to turn its back on one of its greatest players? Yes, of course. And Penguins fans would be crushed; the man who saved their team back when it was terrible feeling so wronged by the league that he abandoned it? No small story. But once Sidney Crosby gets back on the ice, Penguins fans will put aside feelings of betrayal on behalf of Mario, and get back to hating the Capitals and rooting for their team.
As I said, other people have written pieces expressing many of my other sentiments, so I'll just link them here. And here. And also here.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Sports Quizzes
So rather than talk to you about the Super Bowl, which was entertaining, I'd like to offer you a link to one of my favorite sites right now.
Sporcle is a site that has trivia quizzes on tons of topics. Most notably with regards to this site, however, is the Sports topic . There are a ton of interesting quizzes on there, just waiting for you to eat them up.
Go ahead. Eat them up. I'll be here when you're done.
Sporcle is a site that has trivia quizzes on tons of topics. Most notably with regards to this site, however, is the Sports topic . There are a ton of interesting quizzes on there, just waiting for you to eat them up.
Go ahead. Eat them up. I'll be here when you're done.
2010 Games of the Year #1 - League of Legends
With apologies to Chip, League of Legends is my Game of the Year.
League of Legends, developed by Riot Games, is one of a few successors to the classic Warcraft III custom game, Defense of the Ancients (DotA). When my brother sent me a link to the game over a year ago, I was intrigued, but not enough to really sit down and give the game a good run. But a few months later, when several friends started playing, I returned to see a game that had developed considerably.
The basic concept of the game is a glorified arena. Two teams of three or five players meet on a battlefield. Waves of troops pour out of two bases, pushing towards the other base. The players each control a champion who joins the battle, trying to turn the tide of combat.
The sheer complexity of skills, and the potential for great teamwork is what keeps me coming back to the game. They release a new hero every couple weeks, and while I'd really like to see a new map (hint hint Riot), the new heroes keep things fresh enough.
Oh, did I mention the game is free to play? There are hundreds of items you can buy, such as champions, skins, runes, XP boosts, and other useful items, but you don't have to spend a nickel to play. Furthermore, Riot has taken an admirable stance and insisted that "power" would never be sold. That is, any item that increases your champions abilities can only be bought with Influence Points, an in-game currency that you accumulate from playing. So while I can't use the Nurse Akali skin unless I pay for it, I can always buy runes to boost my damage and kill any Nurse Akali I come across.
The game isn't without its flaws. Their servers are sometimes inconsistent, particularly with regards to friends lists and chat, but they've settled down the gameplay servers. It's also pretty frustrating at times, since you're matched up with and against complete strangers fairly often, and a lot of them can be terrible/rude/stupid. But you'll get that cross-section no matter what game you play.
In the end, it's a well-made game that's a lot of fun, and into which I put a great deal of time in 2010. Congratulations League of Legends. Victory!
League of Legends, developed by Riot Games, is one of a few successors to the classic Warcraft III custom game, Defense of the Ancients (DotA). When my brother sent me a link to the game over a year ago, I was intrigued, but not enough to really sit down and give the game a good run. But a few months later, when several friends started playing, I returned to see a game that had developed considerably.
The basic concept of the game is a glorified arena. Two teams of three or five players meet on a battlefield. Waves of troops pour out of two bases, pushing towards the other base. The players each control a champion who joins the battle, trying to turn the tide of combat.
The sheer complexity of skills, and the potential for great teamwork is what keeps me coming back to the game. They release a new hero every couple weeks, and while I'd really like to see a new map (hint hint Riot), the new heroes keep things fresh enough.
Oh, did I mention the game is free to play? There are hundreds of items you can buy, such as champions, skins, runes, XP boosts, and other useful items, but you don't have to spend a nickel to play. Furthermore, Riot has taken an admirable stance and insisted that "power" would never be sold. That is, any item that increases your champions abilities can only be bought with Influence Points, an in-game currency that you accumulate from playing. So while I can't use the Nurse Akali skin unless I pay for it, I can always buy runes to boost my damage and kill any Nurse Akali I come across.
The game isn't without its flaws. Their servers are sometimes inconsistent, particularly with regards to friends lists and chat, but they've settled down the gameplay servers. It's also pretty frustrating at times, since you're matched up with and against complete strangers fairly often, and a lot of them can be terrible/rude/stupid. But you'll get that cross-section no matter what game you play.
In the end, it's a well-made game that's a lot of fun, and into which I put a great deal of time in 2010. Congratulations League of Legends. Victory!
Thursday, February 10, 2011
2010 Games of the Year #2 - Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale
From the moment I saw the title of this game on Steam, I was intrigued. One of my favorite aspects of World of Warcraft is the buying and selling that goes on in the auction house, so a game that transfers focus onto that aspect is definitely going to draw my attention. But even with my interest piqued, I didn't expect to love the game as much as I have.
You take on the role of a child who has to turn her home into an item shop in order to pay down her now-missing father's extraordinary debt. The game does a good job of walking you through the beginning, and opening up options over time rather than overwhelming you early on. But you also stand virtually zero chance of actually beating the game the first time through. It's got a similar feature to Dead Rising, where you can start your game over, keeping your merchant level and purchased goods. And most people should be able to generate enough money to pay off the debt by their second playthrough.
Yes, buying and selling products is a big part of the game, and yes, I do enjoy it. But luckily, that's only half of the game. The other half is a dungeon-crawler, with several different warriors to choose from. You pay a hero and send him/her off into a dungeon to fetch treasures that you can sell at your store. The different champions have surprisingly different abilities and play styles, and you learn to appreciate each of them in their own way. You gain one companion early on, but as you progress through the dungeons and meet more people around town, you gain several more warriors to choose from.
The strongest evidence in support of Recettear being near the top of my list is simply that I've poured a ton of time into it. Between the two games I've played (at home and at work), I've put in over 40 hours of game time, and I don't foresee it dropping off any time soon. That's partly because my gaming options at work are limited, but also because the game is simply a lot of fun.
And I've still got so much left to do! There's at least one more warrior to unlock, tons of new gear to discover, and I'm less than halfway to the maximum merchant level. I expect to be playing Recettear plenty in 2011 as well.
You take on the role of a child who has to turn her home into an item shop in order to pay down her now-missing father's extraordinary debt. The game does a good job of walking you through the beginning, and opening up options over time rather than overwhelming you early on. But you also stand virtually zero chance of actually beating the game the first time through. It's got a similar feature to Dead Rising, where you can start your game over, keeping your merchant level and purchased goods. And most people should be able to generate enough money to pay off the debt by their second playthrough.
Yes, buying and selling products is a big part of the game, and yes, I do enjoy it. But luckily, that's only half of the game. The other half is a dungeon-crawler, with several different warriors to choose from. You pay a hero and send him/her off into a dungeon to fetch treasures that you can sell at your store. The different champions have surprisingly different abilities and play styles, and you learn to appreciate each of them in their own way. You gain one companion early on, but as you progress through the dungeons and meet more people around town, you gain several more warriors to choose from.
The strongest evidence in support of Recettear being near the top of my list is simply that I've poured a ton of time into it. Between the two games I've played (at home and at work), I've put in over 40 hours of game time, and I don't foresee it dropping off any time soon. That's partly because my gaming options at work are limited, but also because the game is simply a lot of fun.
And I've still got so much left to do! There's at least one more warrior to unlock, tons of new gear to discover, and I'm less than halfway to the maximum merchant level. I expect to be playing Recettear plenty in 2011 as well.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Cooke
I'll try to put together a better, more complete post on this or some other topic later in the week, but I needed to get this onto (digital) paper right away.
Matt Cooke is a bad guy.
Matt Cooke is a bad guy.
2010 Games of the Year #3 - Dead Rising 2
This ranking probably comes as a shock to a lot of you. Dead Rising 2 was by far my most anticipated game of the year; it was, in fact, the only game I pre-ordered. And at #3, I certainly don't regret having pre-ordered it.
I'd go into a whole discourse on the game's merits and how it plays, but I've really already done that. First, I talked about the prequel mini-game that Capcom released to generate buzz for the game, and make a little cash. Then, I spoke about the game itself, here. The game has since also had an epilogue game released, which I've purchased, but haven't played yet.
So why did it end up #3, rather than at its preordained spot up at #1? Well, two main factors.
First, the game, while entertaining and a distinct improvement on the original (which I also loved), didn't expand too much on the features of the original game. The crafting system was a neat addition, and the interface/controls are definitely crisper, but it's still basically the same game. Also, I'm a sucker for achievements, but many of the achievements for this game were simply outrageous. That sort of scenario dampens my feelings of accomplishment, which are really the main reason I play video games at all.
Second, through no fault of its own, Dead Rising 2 just didn't measure up to the top two games. It was a very good game, and a lot of fun. The top two were just better. Which games, you ask? Stay tuned.
I'd go into a whole discourse on the game's merits and how it plays, but I've really already done that. First, I talked about the prequel mini-game that Capcom released to generate buzz for the game, and make a little cash. Then, I spoke about the game itself, here. The game has since also had an epilogue game released, which I've purchased, but haven't played yet.
So why did it end up #3, rather than at its preordained spot up at #1? Well, two main factors.
First, the game, while entertaining and a distinct improvement on the original (which I also loved), didn't expand too much on the features of the original game. The crafting system was a neat addition, and the interface/controls are definitely crisper, but it's still basically the same game. Also, I'm a sucker for achievements, but many of the achievements for this game were simply outrageous. That sort of scenario dampens my feelings of accomplishment, which are really the main reason I play video games at all.
Second, through no fault of its own, Dead Rising 2 just didn't measure up to the top two games. It was a very good game, and a lot of fun. The top two were just better. Which games, you ask? Stay tuned.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
2010 Games of the Year #4 - Mass Effect
From the first day Mass Effect came out, my brother has told me, "This is your kind of game, dude." Three years later, I finally decided to give it a shot, and I was very pleased with the results.
I played a lot of Knights of the Old Republic, and the games are similar. The interactions with all sorts of people, the wide array of options given to you over the course of the game, and the good vs. evil spectrum of your actions. The main difference between the games is the live combat, and I think it's for the better. Rather than relying on good odds in a D&D style rolling system in order to hit your enemies, you just have to hit them. It's also a lot more gratifying to blast a guy with a shotgun manually than to "pew pew" him with a blaster pistol automatically.
The graphics are good, the interface is good (although combat can be a little clunky), and the story is interesting and fun. And immersive. You can literally play the game for 40 hours and still not have completed half of it. I know. I haven't completed half of the game yet, I don't think. And I'm well over 40 hours.
For whatever reason, I went elsewhere before I finished Mass Effect. I didn't stop liking the game, and I didn't get frustrated or disappointed with anything. I think I just started playing something else, and never went back. That's the only reason I've got the game down here at #4 instead of higher up.
And hey, any spot on the list is pretty good.
I played a lot of Knights of the Old Republic, and the games are similar. The interactions with all sorts of people, the wide array of options given to you over the course of the game, and the good vs. evil spectrum of your actions. The main difference between the games is the live combat, and I think it's for the better. Rather than relying on good odds in a D&D style rolling system in order to hit your enemies, you just have to hit them. It's also a lot more gratifying to blast a guy with a shotgun manually than to "pew pew" him with a blaster pistol automatically.
The graphics are good, the interface is good (although combat can be a little clunky), and the story is interesting and fun. And immersive. You can literally play the game for 40 hours and still not have completed half of it. I know. I haven't completed half of the game yet, I don't think. And I'm well over 40 hours.
For whatever reason, I went elsewhere before I finished Mass Effect. I didn't stop liking the game, and I didn't get frustrated or disappointed with anything. I think I just started playing something else, and never went back. That's the only reason I've got the game down here at #4 instead of higher up.
And hey, any spot on the list is pretty good.
Monday, February 7, 2011
2010 Games of the Year #5 - World of Warcraft - Cataclysm
Some of you know that I've spent quite a lot of time playing World of Warcraft this past year, and certainly plenty of time after the most recent expansion. It's possible that I put more hours into WoW over the past year than any other game. It would seem logical for the most-played game to be #1 or #2 on my annual list.
But I've been playing WoW for years. The eligible game is not the original WoW, but the Cataclysm expansion, and that's a different bird altogether. A bird that I didn't get all the way into.
Here are some notable features that I associated with the expansion when evaluating it for this award:
Check in tomorrow for the #4 game of 2011.
But I've been playing WoW for years. The eligible game is not the original WoW, but the Cataclysm expansion, and that's a different bird altogether. A bird that I didn't get all the way into.
Here are some notable features that I associated with the expansion when evaluating it for this award:
- Two new races: goblins and worgen - I've been hoping for the opportunity to play as goblins for a while, so this was a nice feature. However, I had sort of been hoping that the goblins would be a third, unassociated faction, rather than part of the Horde. So, my excitement was tempered.
- New zones, new dungeons - I've seen some of the starting areas for goblins and worgen, haven't seen any of the 81-85 zones, and likely won't for a long time, if ever. My style is to play several characters, rather than push one up to max level.
- New secondary skill, Archaeology - I haven't gotten high enough with it to know if it's actually useful, but I do like digging up fossils on a basic level, so it's a good addition.
- Totally revamped classes - This was the most important part of the equation, and the part that brought the expansion into my top 5.
Check in tomorrow for the #4 game of 2011.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
2011 NFL Playoffs - Super Bowl
This post contains adult language, and is intended for a mature audience. Reader discretion is advised.
Full disclosure, I hate the fucking Steelers.
Right after the conference championship games, I said to myself, "These teams are even." I looked over their numbers through the regular season and playoffs, and still came out with "These teams are even." I looked back at my previous posts about the playoff games, trying to find some point I made earlier that would tilt me in one direction or the other. But alas, you guessed it, I still thought these teams were even.
Then this happened:
Does this statement change anything about Harrison? No, not really. I don't expect him to do anything different on Sunday; his motor will be running and he'll be ready to go, as will everyone else on the Steelers...right?
Here's what I know. When Harrison made his biggest deal about the headshot rules, after the Steelers rolled the Browns in week 6, the team seemed to lose focus. They barely won at Miami, 23-22, against a team that won only one home game all season. They followed that with a 20-10 loss to the Saints, then edged a free-falling Bengals team that had lost four straight, 27-21. They wrapped up a four game stretch by losing 39-26 at home to the Patriots.
Pittsburgh rebounded the following week by decimating the Raiders, but a chink was perhaps found. The Steelers didn't respond well to being called a dirty team. It's clear that, for whatever reason, Harrison had it in his head again that he was being put upon by the league, and for the Packers, it couldn't come at a better time. You take any advantage you can find.
I could talk about the teams' offenses and defenses, but you know them. I've already talked about them in previous weeks, and if you've watched any sports coverage at all this week, you've heard all the numbers. On Sunday, we'll watch two pretty evenly matched teams go head to head.
Normally I'd say I hope it's a good game, but I really don't. I hope the Steelers get throttled. I hope they go into halftime down 37-3, because Mike McCarthy called a pair of 2-point conversions late in the half, to rub salt in the wounds. I hope James Harrison gets upended and breaks his fucking leg. I hope Ryan Clark gets knocked out on the first play when he (inevitably) leads with his helmet on a tackle attempt.
I hope.
Prediction: Packers 29, Steelers 28
Full disclosure, I hate the fucking Steelers.
Right after the conference championship games, I said to myself, "These teams are even." I looked over their numbers through the regular season and playoffs, and still came out with "These teams are even." I looked back at my previous posts about the playoff games, trying to find some point I made earlier that would tilt me in one direction or the other. But alas, you guessed it, I still thought these teams were even.
Then this happened:
"I don't want to hurt nobody. I don't want to step on nobody's foot or hurt their toe. I don't want to have no dirt or none of this rubber on this field fly into their eye and make their eye hurt. I just want to tackle them softly on the ground and if you all can, we'll lay a pillow down where I'm going to tackle them, so they don't hit the ground too hard ... Mr. Goodell."On Super Bowl media day, Harrison offered up that gem as an indication that he's still upset that he was asked to treat other players like human beings. In the same session, he indicated that he had experienced concussions and not left the game, implying that people who get concussions and do leave the game are less manly than he. To the educated sports fan, though, Harrison's revelation merely confirmed our suspicions that he's fucked up in the head.
-James Harrison, LB, Steelers
Does this statement change anything about Harrison? No, not really. I don't expect him to do anything different on Sunday; his motor will be running and he'll be ready to go, as will everyone else on the Steelers...right?
Here's what I know. When Harrison made his biggest deal about the headshot rules, after the Steelers rolled the Browns in week 6, the team seemed to lose focus. They barely won at Miami, 23-22, against a team that won only one home game all season. They followed that with a 20-10 loss to the Saints, then edged a free-falling Bengals team that had lost four straight, 27-21. They wrapped up a four game stretch by losing 39-26 at home to the Patriots.
Pittsburgh rebounded the following week by decimating the Raiders, but a chink was perhaps found. The Steelers didn't respond well to being called a dirty team. It's clear that, for whatever reason, Harrison had it in his head again that he was being put upon by the league, and for the Packers, it couldn't come at a better time. You take any advantage you can find.
I could talk about the teams' offenses and defenses, but you know them. I've already talked about them in previous weeks, and if you've watched any sports coverage at all this week, you've heard all the numbers. On Sunday, we'll watch two pretty evenly matched teams go head to head.
Normally I'd say I hope it's a good game, but I really don't. I hope the Steelers get throttled. I hope they go into halftime down 37-3, because Mike McCarthy called a pair of 2-point conversions late in the half, to rub salt in the wounds. I hope James Harrison gets upended and breaks his fucking leg. I hope Ryan Clark gets knocked out on the first play when he (inevitably) leads with his helmet on a tackle attempt.
I hope.
Prediction: Packers 29, Steelers 28
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Fantasy Baseball Previews
So historically, I've always done some fantasy baseball preview articles. Baseball is my favorite fantasy sport, and I love talking about it. But, I've always sort of tempered myself in my posts, for two main reasons:
That goes for you too, ladies. Holla!
- I'm in an ultra-competitive league, and I don't want to give away any of my personal interests.
- I could write a hundred articles on fantasy baseball, and it's tough to pick a few topics to actually write about.
That goes for you too, ladies. Holla!
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When I think about why I'm making this blog post, I'm reminded of a memorable quote from my all-time favorite show, The West Wing : ...
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Games are a little tougher to judge, because frankly I play a lot of games that I don't finish, but often I don't finish them like, ...
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We're making progress! I've got kind of a reputation for being way behind on movies and shows, a reputation well-earned. Even with t...
