That's the plural of funny, and not a particularly entertaining type of rabbit.
Two funny things for you. First, if you've never come across Jake and Amir in your Internet-ly travels, you've been missing out on some funny stuff. They're a couple of guys from College Humor who've been pumping out two videos a week for a couple years now. The videos are 1-3 minutes long, but they're long on humor. I recommend you go to the site and just click "Random Video" a few times. My guess is something will come up that you'll like.
The second funny thing for you is my cousin's blog, Opinionated Truths. He's pretty funny. Laugh at him. Not with him, at him.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Sunday, September 27, 2009
2009 Redskins Report Card: Week 3 vs. Detroit Lions
Lions 19, Redskins 14
Leading up to this game, we all felt like we were giving the Lions sufficient credit, acknowledging the fact that any team can beat any other team, and understanding that Detroit has got some talented players.
Even still, once the game started, we all just knew the Washington Redskins wouldn't lose. And then they did, and everyone should be afraid of what might be coming next.
Offense: C
Running back Clinton Portis came into the game with a nagging ankle injury, and it was doubly obvious, with Portis not rushing effectively, and with the Skins rushing just 14 times versus 41 passing attempts. Backup Ladell Betts got just one carry, and the whole team earned just three rushing first downs.
When you can't run the ball, you can't extend drives. The Redskins' longest drive of the day went for just three minutes, fifty-nine seconds. Of their ten drives, only two of them took more than three minutes off the clock. The Lions (the freakin' Lions) meanwhile had three great drives in the first half to put Washington on their heels from the get-go. They held the ball for over 22:00 in that first half, and the Washington defense just couldn't get off the field. Detroit was 10/18 on third down, whereas the Redskins were 2/10. Detroit was simply more efficient and more effective on offense than the Redskins.
In case you think that the passer rating statistic isn't flawed, Jason Campbell's rating on the day was 97.6. But you'd be hard-pressed to find many people who watched the game that wouldn't say that his opponent, rookie Matthew Stafford, didn't outplay him, despite having a passer rating ten points lower.
I didn't have any real problem with the play-calling last week, putting me in the vast minority among Washington fans last week. I did, however, have two problems with the play-calling today. The final play of the game was a little mystifying. Relying on a series of pitches is a surefire way to blow any chance of success. There's got to be something better in your playbook than that. I do concede that they were in a bad situation, so I don't hold Zorn too accountable for that play.
My bigger problem is with the decision to go for it on 4th down on the one their first drive on the game. There are two main philosophical problems I have with the call. First, I don't think you take points off the board in the first half. An 18-yard field goal attempt is as close to a sure thing as you're going to find. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the game was scoreless. Any time you can go for a chip shot field goal to take a lead, you take it. Points haven't been that easy for this team to come by under Jim Zorn, so you'd better take them when you can.
Perhaps the most disconcerting thing about the call is that it seems like exactly what you'd do if you were responding directly to all of the local criticism this week. I don't want the Washington Redskins to be run by the fans. I want the team to be run by the head coach (whoever that might be on Monday morning). The moment your head coach changes his strategies based on public perceptions, he's no longer a head coach, and he needs to be removed. If Zorn had his own reasons for making that call, okay, but most coaches who haven't scored 30 points in their entire careers would be happy to take points when they're available.
Defense: C-
While the offense didn't do the defense any favors, this defense wasn't the squad that kept Washington alive in the first two weeks. After the aforementioned fourth down play, the defense had Detroit at first and ten on the one yard line. An offsides penalty on first down brought the Lions out of the danger zone, and Stafford orchestrated a 12-play, 99-yard drive that culminated with a 21-yard touchdown pass to Bryant Johnson.
I do think that the one huge pass interference by Chris Horton play might have been an overreaction by the referees, as he didn't seem to make much contact with Calvin Johnson, and he definitely defensed the ball. I've tried to look at the play again with as little bias as possible, but it's not unreasonable to think that I'm still seeing the play with burgundy and gold shades. Still, it looked like it was just a really good defensive play.
Unfortunately, that's not the big problem with the Redskins' defensive performance. Stafford was consistently able to make big throws, taking advantage of lapse after lapse by Redskins defenders. Their high-priced cornerbacks, Carlos Rogers and DeAngelo Hall, seemed to always be on the wrong end of big plays. Detroit had six turnovers in their first two games, but Washington couldn't generate a single takeaway.
Special Teams: B
Once again, the Redskins had solid kickoff returns and solid kickoff coverage. You'd like more of a breakaway possibility out of your return guys than the Redskins have with Rock Cartwright and Antwaan Randle El, but they've been able to count on solid field position out of kickoffs, which is about the only thing the offense has been able to count on.
Shawn Suisham made both of his kicks, both mere point-after-TD attempts. I wish he had taken one field goal attempt, but I can't fault him for the decisions of the coach. Hunter Smith did a great job punting, got four of his five punts inside the Lions' 20-yard line. It's just a shame the Redskins' defense couldn't take advantage of Smith's performance.
Overall: F
The Washington Redskins lost to the Detroit Lions, the Lions' first win since December 2007. Maybe they played better than an F, but you just can't lose this game.
Should a change be made? I don't know if I've ever said it here, but I think firing Zorn would be a terrible idea. There's no advantage of firing Zorn during the season, because no team has ever responded well to their coach getting fired. If firing the coach will undoubtedly result in a losing season (which it will), then let's let Zorn finish out the season, see if he can't right the ship.
Previously, I'd suggested that replacing Campbell with backup Todd Collins might be a good idea. I'm still not averse to that idea, but when Campbell has been able to make his own decisions and act quickly in hurry-up scenarios, he's been fairly effective. I wonder if Zorn is handicapping his own quarterback with his play-calling.
One thing's for sure: something's gotta change if this team is going to make something out of this season.
Leading up to this game, we all felt like we were giving the Lions sufficient credit, acknowledging the fact that any team can beat any other team, and understanding that Detroit has got some talented players.
Even still, once the game started, we all just knew the Washington Redskins wouldn't lose. And then they did, and everyone should be afraid of what might be coming next.
Offense: C
Running back Clinton Portis came into the game with a nagging ankle injury, and it was doubly obvious, with Portis not rushing effectively, and with the Skins rushing just 14 times versus 41 passing attempts. Backup Ladell Betts got just one carry, and the whole team earned just three rushing first downs.
When you can't run the ball, you can't extend drives. The Redskins' longest drive of the day went for just three minutes, fifty-nine seconds. Of their ten drives, only two of them took more than three minutes off the clock. The Lions (the freakin' Lions) meanwhile had three great drives in the first half to put Washington on their heels from the get-go. They held the ball for over 22:00 in that first half, and the Washington defense just couldn't get off the field. Detroit was 10/18 on third down, whereas the Redskins were 2/10. Detroit was simply more efficient and more effective on offense than the Redskins.
In case you think that the passer rating statistic isn't flawed, Jason Campbell's rating on the day was 97.6. But you'd be hard-pressed to find many people who watched the game that wouldn't say that his opponent, rookie Matthew Stafford, didn't outplay him, despite having a passer rating ten points lower.
I didn't have any real problem with the play-calling last week, putting me in the vast minority among Washington fans last week. I did, however, have two problems with the play-calling today. The final play of the game was a little mystifying. Relying on a series of pitches is a surefire way to blow any chance of success. There's got to be something better in your playbook than that. I do concede that they were in a bad situation, so I don't hold Zorn too accountable for that play.
My bigger problem is with the decision to go for it on 4th down on the one their first drive on the game. There are two main philosophical problems I have with the call. First, I don't think you take points off the board in the first half. An 18-yard field goal attempt is as close to a sure thing as you're going to find. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the game was scoreless. Any time you can go for a chip shot field goal to take a lead, you take it. Points haven't been that easy for this team to come by under Jim Zorn, so you'd better take them when you can.
Perhaps the most disconcerting thing about the call is that it seems like exactly what you'd do if you were responding directly to all of the local criticism this week. I don't want the Washington Redskins to be run by the fans. I want the team to be run by the head coach (whoever that might be on Monday morning). The moment your head coach changes his strategies based on public perceptions, he's no longer a head coach, and he needs to be removed. If Zorn had his own reasons for making that call, okay, but most coaches who haven't scored 30 points in their entire careers would be happy to take points when they're available.
Defense: C-
While the offense didn't do the defense any favors, this defense wasn't the squad that kept Washington alive in the first two weeks. After the aforementioned fourth down play, the defense had Detroit at first and ten on the one yard line. An offsides penalty on first down brought the Lions out of the danger zone, and Stafford orchestrated a 12-play, 99-yard drive that culminated with a 21-yard touchdown pass to Bryant Johnson.
I do think that the one huge pass interference by Chris Horton play might have been an overreaction by the referees, as he didn't seem to make much contact with Calvin Johnson, and he definitely defensed the ball. I've tried to look at the play again with as little bias as possible, but it's not unreasonable to think that I'm still seeing the play with burgundy and gold shades. Still, it looked like it was just a really good defensive play.
Unfortunately, that's not the big problem with the Redskins' defensive performance. Stafford was consistently able to make big throws, taking advantage of lapse after lapse by Redskins defenders. Their high-priced cornerbacks, Carlos Rogers and DeAngelo Hall, seemed to always be on the wrong end of big plays. Detroit had six turnovers in their first two games, but Washington couldn't generate a single takeaway.
Special Teams: B
Once again, the Redskins had solid kickoff returns and solid kickoff coverage. You'd like more of a breakaway possibility out of your return guys than the Redskins have with Rock Cartwright and Antwaan Randle El, but they've been able to count on solid field position out of kickoffs, which is about the only thing the offense has been able to count on.
Shawn Suisham made both of his kicks, both mere point-after-TD attempts. I wish he had taken one field goal attempt, but I can't fault him for the decisions of the coach. Hunter Smith did a great job punting, got four of his five punts inside the Lions' 20-yard line. It's just a shame the Redskins' defense couldn't take advantage of Smith's performance.
Overall: F
The Washington Redskins lost to the Detroit Lions, the Lions' first win since December 2007. Maybe they played better than an F, but you just can't lose this game.
Should a change be made? I don't know if I've ever said it here, but I think firing Zorn would be a terrible idea. There's no advantage of firing Zorn during the season, because no team has ever responded well to their coach getting fired. If firing the coach will undoubtedly result in a losing season (which it will), then let's let Zorn finish out the season, see if he can't right the ship.
Previously, I'd suggested that replacing Campbell with backup Todd Collins might be a good idea. I'm still not averse to that idea, but when Campbell has been able to make his own decisions and act quickly in hurry-up scenarios, he's been fairly effective. I wonder if Zorn is handicapping his own quarterback with his play-calling.
One thing's for sure: something's gotta change if this team is going to make something out of this season.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
2009 Redskins Report Card: Week 2 vs. St. Louis Rams
Redskins 9, Rams 7
Well, it's certainly nice to get one in the win column, but there's plenty to be unhappy about with Sunday's victory over the Rams. Let's talk about it, shall we?
Offense: C+
Overall, despite scoring fewer points, the offense looked ten times better against the Rams than it did against the Giants. The problem, of course, is that the offense is supposed to look better against the Rams. The Giants boast a much better defense than St. Louis, so the Redskins ought to be more effective. Chris Cooley proved once again that he's perhaps the greatest single acquisition that the second Joe Gibbs era yielded here in Washington. He was all over the field, and his ball security was much better today than it was against the Giants.
Unfortunately, Mike Sellers and Santana Moss weren't quite as sure-handed. Sellers let a touchdown pass from Jason Campbell slip through his fingers, and Moss fumbled the ball away on a solid drive just before halftime. The Sellers play was particularly painful, as the Redskins weren't able to score a touchdown all day. Planting a foot in the end zone might have given Washington some positive momentum to prevent St. Louis from holding on all game, not to mention something positive to build on going forward. Word is, the Redskins' locker room was quiet and somber after the game, a rarity when you win. That doesn't sound like the tone of a team that feels good about their day.
I had told some colleagues that, had the Redskins lost on Sunday, I wouldn't have been surprised with a quarterback and/or head coaching change, and I don't think the victory did much to dissuade people from thinking a change might be necessary. I'd put both Campbell and Jim Zorn on the chopping block again; if the team can't beat a very unimpressive Lions team next weekend, I would expect a change. Before the St. Louis game, I'd have said Campbell would be the victim, but Campbell played pretty well against the Rams, while Zorn seemed hesitant to give Campbell the opportunity to succeed (or fail).
After the game, former Washington Redskins quarterback and local legend Sonny Jurgensen added a little fuel to the fire, saying that had Zorn given him a *halfback pass on third and goal* (see comments), he'd have changed the play. But Zorn displayed a kind of arrogance and distrust of his players in his response, saying that he'd have benched Jurgensen. Comments like that make me wonder how much confidence Zorn actually has in Campbell's ability to take another step and become a quality passer in this league.
Defense: A
Even if it was the lowly St. Louis Rams, the Redskins' defense still looked good. Lost in the hullabaloo over the Redskins' red zone ineptitude was the fact that the Rams were almost completely silenced on the offensive side of the ball. Marc Bulger threw for a paltry 125 yards, and outside of a tough 58-yard run by Steven Jackson, they rushed for just 68 yards on 20 rushing attempts. The team still has a ways to go before you can talk about them with the Ravens, Steelers, or Titans when you talk about great defenses of this decade, but they're closer than you might think.
The hallmark of many of those great defenses is that, when the team was in dire need of a stop, they always got it. Just this past Sunday, when the Chargers were rumbling down the field for a potential game-winning touchdown, Ray Lewis made an unbelievable play on Darren Sproles to win the game for Baltimore. Now, rewind it three hours to the Rams, down just two points and driving down for the potential go-ahead score. Bulger completes a pass to Donnie Avery inside the Redskins' 10-yard-line when Chris Horton puts his helmet on the ball, Carlos Rogers gobbles up the fumble, and the Redskins dodge a bullet.
Oh, and in their final two drives, the Rams gained a total of 3 yards on 7 plays. To me, that sounds like a "refuse to lose" defense. Was there a breakdown on the Steven Jackson run? Absolutely. And should they have been able to prevent Laurent Robinson from pulling down a TD on a fade pattern? Probably. But if you told me that the Redskins' defense would allow only two big plays every game for the rest of the season, I'd bet the farm on this being a playoff team.
Speaking of farms, Albert "Big Country" Haynesworth sure looked great, didn't he? The guy was busting up passes and runs alike, proving that he might just be worth the mammoth contract that Washington gave him. I personally have always liked Haynesworth, despite some of his red flags (stepping on another player's head, etc). I'm hopeful that he'll be able to stay healthy and be the anchor that this defense has so desperately needed. So far, so so good.
Special Teams: C+
Sometimes it's best if the special teams get no real attention at all after the game. The Redskins made no noticeable mistakes on special teams; the coverage teams didn't fail, they didn't miss a field goal, and Hunter Smith was again a solid punter. You'd like to get some more explosiveness out of your return guys, but there's nothing to really complain about here. I wish I had more analysis of the special teams crew, but there's really just nothing more to say.
Overall: B
I know, I know, I'm giving the Redskins far too much credit for their defensive accomplishments against a lackluster Rams offense. I don't care. This is a team that was extremely stingy on defense last season, and acquired the premier defensive lineman available in free agency. There's no reason to think that the defense can't be better than it was last year, and that puts it near the top of the league. If Campbell can start to finish out drives with touchdowns instead of field goals, I don't see any reason this can't be an eleven- or twelve-win team. No reason whatsoever.
Well, it's certainly nice to get one in the win column, but there's plenty to be unhappy about with Sunday's victory over the Rams. Let's talk about it, shall we?
Offense: C+
Overall, despite scoring fewer points, the offense looked ten times better against the Rams than it did against the Giants. The problem, of course, is that the offense is supposed to look better against the Rams. The Giants boast a much better defense than St. Louis, so the Redskins ought to be more effective. Chris Cooley proved once again that he's perhaps the greatest single acquisition that the second Joe Gibbs era yielded here in Washington. He was all over the field, and his ball security was much better today than it was against the Giants.
Unfortunately, Mike Sellers and Santana Moss weren't quite as sure-handed. Sellers let a touchdown pass from Jason Campbell slip through his fingers, and Moss fumbled the ball away on a solid drive just before halftime. The Sellers play was particularly painful, as the Redskins weren't able to score a touchdown all day. Planting a foot in the end zone might have given Washington some positive momentum to prevent St. Louis from holding on all game, not to mention something positive to build on going forward. Word is, the Redskins' locker room was quiet and somber after the game, a rarity when you win. That doesn't sound like the tone of a team that feels good about their day.
I had told some colleagues that, had the Redskins lost on Sunday, I wouldn't have been surprised with a quarterback and/or head coaching change, and I don't think the victory did much to dissuade people from thinking a change might be necessary. I'd put both Campbell and Jim Zorn on the chopping block again; if the team can't beat a very unimpressive Lions team next weekend, I would expect a change. Before the St. Louis game, I'd have said Campbell would be the victim, but Campbell played pretty well against the Rams, while Zorn seemed hesitant to give Campbell the opportunity to succeed (or fail).
After the game, former Washington Redskins quarterback and local legend Sonny Jurgensen added a little fuel to the fire, saying that had Zorn given him a *halfback pass on third and goal* (see comments), he'd have changed the play. But Zorn displayed a kind of arrogance and distrust of his players in his response, saying that he'd have benched Jurgensen. Comments like that make me wonder how much confidence Zorn actually has in Campbell's ability to take another step and become a quality passer in this league.
Defense: A
Even if it was the lowly St. Louis Rams, the Redskins' defense still looked good. Lost in the hullabaloo over the Redskins' red zone ineptitude was the fact that the Rams were almost completely silenced on the offensive side of the ball. Marc Bulger threw for a paltry 125 yards, and outside of a tough 58-yard run by Steven Jackson, they rushed for just 68 yards on 20 rushing attempts. The team still has a ways to go before you can talk about them with the Ravens, Steelers, or Titans when you talk about great defenses of this decade, but they're closer than you might think.
The hallmark of many of those great defenses is that, when the team was in dire need of a stop, they always got it. Just this past Sunday, when the Chargers were rumbling down the field for a potential game-winning touchdown, Ray Lewis made an unbelievable play on Darren Sproles to win the game for Baltimore. Now, rewind it three hours to the Rams, down just two points and driving down for the potential go-ahead score. Bulger completes a pass to Donnie Avery inside the Redskins' 10-yard-line when Chris Horton puts his helmet on the ball, Carlos Rogers gobbles up the fumble, and the Redskins dodge a bullet.
Oh, and in their final two drives, the Rams gained a total of 3 yards on 7 plays. To me, that sounds like a "refuse to lose" defense. Was there a breakdown on the Steven Jackson run? Absolutely. And should they have been able to prevent Laurent Robinson from pulling down a TD on a fade pattern? Probably. But if you told me that the Redskins' defense would allow only two big plays every game for the rest of the season, I'd bet the farm on this being a playoff team.
Speaking of farms, Albert "Big Country" Haynesworth sure looked great, didn't he? The guy was busting up passes and runs alike, proving that he might just be worth the mammoth contract that Washington gave him. I personally have always liked Haynesworth, despite some of his red flags (stepping on another player's head, etc). I'm hopeful that he'll be able to stay healthy and be the anchor that this defense has so desperately needed. So far, so so good.
Special Teams: C+
Sometimes it's best if the special teams get no real attention at all after the game. The Redskins made no noticeable mistakes on special teams; the coverage teams didn't fail, they didn't miss a field goal, and Hunter Smith was again a solid punter. You'd like to get some more explosiveness out of your return guys, but there's nothing to really complain about here. I wish I had more analysis of the special teams crew, but there's really just nothing more to say.
Overall: B
I know, I know, I'm giving the Redskins far too much credit for their defensive accomplishments against a lackluster Rams offense. I don't care. This is a team that was extremely stingy on defense last season, and acquired the premier defensive lineman available in free agency. There's no reason to think that the defense can't be better than it was last year, and that puts it near the top of the league. If Campbell can start to finish out drives with touchdowns instead of field goals, I don't see any reason this can't be an eleven- or twelve-win team. No reason whatsoever.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
What to look forward to from Joe and Joe Sports this fall...
It's September, and football seasons have just kicked off. Baseball's regular season is screaming towards the finish line, and while St. Louis has the NL Central wrapped up, most of the other playoff spots are still up for grabs. College and pro basketball are on the horizon, and the NHL has already started having preseason games. Early autumn is perhaps the most exciting time in sports, and we're happy to say that it will also be an exciting time on Joe and Joe Sports.
If you've been a frequenter of our blog, you know a few things:
If you've been a frequenter of our blog, you know a few things:
- You know that we're better writers than a lot of bloggers. Rather than quick blurbs with PhotoShopped pictures of players' heads on animals' bodies, we try to give you in-depth analysis that reads more like an article than a rant. We won't stop doing that.
- You know that we love baseball. We love the one-on-one competition between pitcher and batter, and we love the over-arching strategies that surround that competition. You can look forward to our postseason picks, both for the MLB playoffs and for the various award-winners in baseball for 2009. And I could maybe see us having another argument or two.
- You know we love our home teams. You've probably seen that I've revived the Redskins Report Card feature, and I'll keep that going all season again. Meanwhile, I know my partner in crime has been working on a post about his beloved Cleveland Browns. As different as our two cities might be, we share a fatalist desperation that all true sports fans should feel. I'll let him tell you about his when he's ready.
- You know it's been forever since we had a radio show. We know it, too.
- And lastly, you know that we're conceited, self-absorbed, arrogant bastards. Oh. Well, if you didn't, you do now.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
2009 Redskins Report Card: Week 1 vs. New York Giants
Giants 23, Redskins 17
So, what the hell, we'll do this again this year. Hopefully we'll have more positive comments this year than last, but if the offense doesn't improve from this past Sunday, I'm not holding out much hope for that.
Offense: D+
The offense was bad. You don't have to look at the numbers to know it was bad, but I'll throw a couple key ones at you anyways. The Giants dominated time of possession, 36 minutes to 24. The Giants had eight drives of 8 or more plays, the Redskins mustered just one. But when I saw that Jason Campbell's passer rating was 0.1 points above Eli Manning's, I knew the numbers wouldn't tell the whole story.
The worst play of the game was by Campbell. He rolled out after his pocket collapsed, and gained a few yards while scrambling...and then threw an interception. He was well beyond the line of scrimmage, but of course, the turnover trumped the penalty, so he made a bad decision that much worse. I understand that Campbell is a pass-first quarterback, and I'm content with that. But in that situation, he ought to have the football instincts to know that he's over the line, and needs to tuck it in and run.
One of the more perplexing parts of the Redskins' game plan was their failure to use any sort of no-huddle offense until the very end of the game. With the Giants' defensive line quality and depth being their defense's greatest strength, and with Redskins head coach Jim Zorn allegedly boasting a West Coast offense, the smart move would seem to be forcing that defensive line to stay on the field by going with a hurry-up offense. It plays perfectly to what should be the Redskins' strengths, and should at least partially counterfeit one of the Giants' strengths. It makes plenty of sense thinking about it now, but for the time being, I'll have to trust the "football experts" in the Redskins' coaching offices, and believe that they knew what they were doing.
Defense: B+
There were several instances where the defense shined. A first half drive by the Giants was stuffed on 4th and 1 at the Redskins 3-yard-line. They forced two turnovers, not a huge game, but already ahead of last year's lethargic pace. They prevented the Giants from getting into the end zone on any of their three red zone opportunities.
There were lapses, of course, such as the touchdown by Mario Manningham where three different Redskins missed tackles. And in the fourth quarter when the Redskins needed stops, the defense allowed two long field goal drives, totaling nearly eleven minutes of game time and putting Washington down two scores. Additionally, while he certainly had some impact, we didn't see any great plays out of the $100 million man, Albert Haynesworth. His fellow day 1 signee DeAngelo Hall, though, did get an interception that he nearly took to the house.
Special Teams: B+
Take out the fake field goal touchdown by Hunter Smith and this grade is more like a C, but any time you can put points on the board with your special teams, that's a good day. They did average nearly ten more yards per kickoff return than the Giants as well, and the Giants didn't gain a single yard on any of Smith's five punts on the day. There's plenty of room to improve, but a lack of any big mistakes keeps the grade high and bodes well for the future.
Overall: C
It's tough to rate the whole team as a C, but the offense really let the rest of the team down this week. Washington gets the Rams, Lions, and Buccaneers over the next three weeks, and there's absolutely no reason to think they won't be 3-1 after those three games. If they lose any of those games, I honestly wouldn't be surprised with any change, including quarterback and/or head coach. Let's hope it doesn't come to that, and we get to watch some well-executed football next week.
So, what the hell, we'll do this again this year. Hopefully we'll have more positive comments this year than last, but if the offense doesn't improve from this past Sunday, I'm not holding out much hope for that.
Offense: D+
The offense was bad. You don't have to look at the numbers to know it was bad, but I'll throw a couple key ones at you anyways. The Giants dominated time of possession, 36 minutes to 24. The Giants had eight drives of 8 or more plays, the Redskins mustered just one. But when I saw that Jason Campbell's passer rating was 0.1 points above Eli Manning's, I knew the numbers wouldn't tell the whole story.
The worst play of the game was by Campbell. He rolled out after his pocket collapsed, and gained a few yards while scrambling...and then threw an interception. He was well beyond the line of scrimmage, but of course, the turnover trumped the penalty, so he made a bad decision that much worse. I understand that Campbell is a pass-first quarterback, and I'm content with that. But in that situation, he ought to have the football instincts to know that he's over the line, and needs to tuck it in and run.
One of the more perplexing parts of the Redskins' game plan was their failure to use any sort of no-huddle offense until the very end of the game. With the Giants' defensive line quality and depth being their defense's greatest strength, and with Redskins head coach Jim Zorn allegedly boasting a West Coast offense, the smart move would seem to be forcing that defensive line to stay on the field by going with a hurry-up offense. It plays perfectly to what should be the Redskins' strengths, and should at least partially counterfeit one of the Giants' strengths. It makes plenty of sense thinking about it now, but for the time being, I'll have to trust the "football experts" in the Redskins' coaching offices, and believe that they knew what they were doing.
Defense: B+
There were several instances where the defense shined. A first half drive by the Giants was stuffed on 4th and 1 at the Redskins 3-yard-line. They forced two turnovers, not a huge game, but already ahead of last year's lethargic pace. They prevented the Giants from getting into the end zone on any of their three red zone opportunities.
There were lapses, of course, such as the touchdown by Mario Manningham where three different Redskins missed tackles. And in the fourth quarter when the Redskins needed stops, the defense allowed two long field goal drives, totaling nearly eleven minutes of game time and putting Washington down two scores. Additionally, while he certainly had some impact, we didn't see any great plays out of the $100 million man, Albert Haynesworth. His fellow day 1 signee DeAngelo Hall, though, did get an interception that he nearly took to the house.
Special Teams: B+
Take out the fake field goal touchdown by Hunter Smith and this grade is more like a C, but any time you can put points on the board with your special teams, that's a good day. They did average nearly ten more yards per kickoff return than the Giants as well, and the Giants didn't gain a single yard on any of Smith's five punts on the day. There's plenty of room to improve, but a lack of any big mistakes keeps the grade high and bodes well for the future.
Overall: C
It's tough to rate the whole team as a C, but the offense really let the rest of the team down this week. Washington gets the Rams, Lions, and Buccaneers over the next three weeks, and there's absolutely no reason to think they won't be 3-1 after those three games. If they lose any of those games, I honestly wouldn't be surprised with any change, including quarterback and/or head coach. Let's hope it doesn't come to that, and we get to watch some well-executed football next week.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
The Other Joe's NFL 2009 Predictions
No fluff, just the way I see things panning out this season.
AFC East - New England Patriots
AFC North - Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South - Indianapolis Colts
AFC West - San Diego Chargers
Wild Card - Miami Dolphins
Wild Card - Houston Texans
AFC Champion - New England Patriots
NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North - Green Bay Packers
NFC South - Carolina Panthers
NFC West - Seattle Seahawks
Wild Card - Atlanta Falcons
Wild Card - Washington Redskins
NFC Champion - Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl Champion - New England Patriots
NFL MVP - Aaron Rodgers
AFC East - New England Patriots
AFC North - Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South - Indianapolis Colts
AFC West - San Diego Chargers
Wild Card - Miami Dolphins
Wild Card - Houston Texans
AFC Champion - New England Patriots
NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North - Green Bay Packers
NFC South - Carolina Panthers
NFC West - Seattle Seahawks
Wild Card - Atlanta Falcons
Wild Card - Washington Redskins
NFC Champion - Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl Champion - New England Patriots
NFL MVP - Aaron Rodgers
Friday, September 4, 2009
2009 AFC West Preview
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos (8-8)
Key Additions: RB Knowshon Moreno, DE Robert Ayers, CB Alphonso Smith, QB Kyle Orton, WR Brandon Lloyd, S Renaldo Hill, LB Andra Davis
Key Subtractions: QB Jay Cutler, LB Jamie Winborn, S Marquand Manuel, CB Dre' Bly, WR Brandon Marshall???
The defensive overhaul that the Broncos went through this offseason doesn't look like it will yield a much different result. They changed several players, but don't seem to have a distinct upgrade anywhere. I do like Renaldo Hill, though, and Andra Davis is at least a revolutionary name-speller.
Rookie Knowshon Moreno has got top-tier ability, and the turnover on the defensive side of the ball shouldn't create much of an overall difference in performance. Jay Cutler's tantrum was quelled with a trade to Chicago that netted multiple first round picks as well as Cutler's replacement, Kyle Orton. Orton isn't the same caliber quarterback as Cutler, and it wouldn't be terribly shocking if Chris Simms got a look under center at some point this season. Either way, the passing game won't be as potent as it was last year.
But perhaps the biggest issue for the Broncos going into the 2009 season is the drama surrounding superstar wideout Brandon Marshall. Marshall has 206 receptions over the past two seasons, and has established himself as one of the elite receivers today. But he's unhappy about his current deal ($2.2 million this year) and has demanded either a contract extension or a trade. Denver hasn't offered either, and it's degraded into a situation where nobody knows what will happen. If he plays for Denver this year, everyone benefits. If not, the whole team suffers.
I love Eddie Royal.
Projected 2009 record: 5-11
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
Key Additions: QB Matt Cassel, DE Tyson Jackson, LB Mike Vrabel, LB Zach Thomas
Key Subtractions: TE Tony Gonzalez
Four of the Chiefs' top five tacklers last season were the starting secondary, which means the front seven wasn't getting the job done. To attempt to resolve that problem, the Chiefs drafted a gigantic defensive end in Jackson, and acquired two veteran linebackers. These changes don't put Kansas City on the fast-track to the Super Bowl, or even the playoffs, but I do believe Vrabel and Thomas will help Jackson, Glenn Dorsey, and Tamba Hali develop into a pretty fearsome young front.
Is Matt Cassel the answer to all of Kansas City's offensive questions? Probably not, but I can't help but pull for Cassel, for both parties. Cassel is the guy everyone (including me) thinks was just a beneficiary of a good system last year in New England, and the Chiefs got branded as suckers (again, by me) for paying full price. Prove me wrong, kids! Prove me wrong! I don't think the Chiefs will do much this year, but if Larry Johnson can recapture some of his old fire, there's no reason that Kansas City can't be a dangerous stop for any visiting team.
Projected 2009 record: 6-10
Oakland Raiders (5-11)
Key Additions: QB Jeff Garcia, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey
Key Subtractions: S Gibril Wilson, DE Derrick Burgess
Oh my, the Raiders. Every year I expect them to be the worst team in the NFL, and while they usually find a way to back into a few wins, they're always at least among the worst teams. They haven't won more than five games in any season since going to the Super Bowl after the 2002 season. It's really a shame, because Oakland has got good fans and some interesting players. The pick of Heyward-Bey in this year's draft was shocking to most, but he may have the most talent of any receiver in that draft. JaMarcus Russell was everybody's #1 overall pick in 2007, and Darren McFadden was the logical pick in 2008. The Raiders make some interesting decisions, but they seem to know talent when they see it.
This year could be trouble, though. Wilson and Burgess were important parts of the defense last year, and it's a defense that's been getting worse since they surprisingly had the #3 yardage defense in 2006. Michael Huff hasn't impressed since being taken in the first round that season, and he's been pushed to third on the safety depth chart behind two even younger players, Tyvon Branch and Hiram Eugene. I do expect the offense to finally take a little pressure off of the defense, and maybe that'll be enough to help the Raiders win some games.
Projected 2009 record: 3-13
San Diego Chargers (8-8)
Key Additions: DE/LB Larry English
Key Subtractions: none
Talk about a team that is staying the course. The Chargers return virtually every relevant player from last season, including an offense that was second in the NFL in points scored. In fact, the Chargers have been in the top five in points scored every year since 2004. With LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, and Philip Rivers all returning for another go-around, there's no reason they can't plant themselves back near the top.
What they need to take the next step is for their defense to recapture their dominance from 2006 and 2007. They gave up under 300 total yards only three times last season, and gave up over 400 yards on four different occasions. Two of those occasions, however, were against the Jay Cutler-led Broncos, which should be considerably less potent this season without him. The reality is that there's no reason the Chargers can't finish in the top 5 along with their offense, which would make San Diego easily the team to beat in the AFC West. My guess is they wrap up the division by Thanksgiving and lose one or two meaningless games down the stretch (hopefully including their game against Washington to end the season).
Projected 2009 record: 11-5
Denver Broncos (8-8)
Key Additions: RB Knowshon Moreno, DE Robert Ayers, CB Alphonso Smith, QB Kyle Orton, WR Brandon Lloyd, S Renaldo Hill, LB Andra Davis
Key Subtractions: QB Jay Cutler, LB Jamie Winborn, S Marquand Manuel, CB Dre' Bly, WR Brandon Marshall???
The defensive overhaul that the Broncos went through this offseason doesn't look like it will yield a much different result. They changed several players, but don't seem to have a distinct upgrade anywhere. I do like Renaldo Hill, though, and Andra Davis is at least a revolutionary name-speller.
Rookie Knowshon Moreno has got top-tier ability, and the turnover on the defensive side of the ball shouldn't create much of an overall difference in performance. Jay Cutler's tantrum was quelled with a trade to Chicago that netted multiple first round picks as well as Cutler's replacement, Kyle Orton. Orton isn't the same caliber quarterback as Cutler, and it wouldn't be terribly shocking if Chris Simms got a look under center at some point this season. Either way, the passing game won't be as potent as it was last year.
But perhaps the biggest issue for the Broncos going into the 2009 season is the drama surrounding superstar wideout Brandon Marshall. Marshall has 206 receptions over the past two seasons, and has established himself as one of the elite receivers today. But he's unhappy about his current deal ($2.2 million this year) and has demanded either a contract extension or a trade. Denver hasn't offered either, and it's degraded into a situation where nobody knows what will happen. If he plays for Denver this year, everyone benefits. If not, the whole team suffers.
I love Eddie Royal.
Projected 2009 record: 5-11
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
Key Additions: QB Matt Cassel, DE Tyson Jackson, LB Mike Vrabel, LB Zach Thomas
Key Subtractions: TE Tony Gonzalez
Four of the Chiefs' top five tacklers last season were the starting secondary, which means the front seven wasn't getting the job done. To attempt to resolve that problem, the Chiefs drafted a gigantic defensive end in Jackson, and acquired two veteran linebackers. These changes don't put Kansas City on the fast-track to the Super Bowl, or even the playoffs, but I do believe Vrabel and Thomas will help Jackson, Glenn Dorsey, and Tamba Hali develop into a pretty fearsome young front.
Is Matt Cassel the answer to all of Kansas City's offensive questions? Probably not, but I can't help but pull for Cassel, for both parties. Cassel is the guy everyone (including me) thinks was just a beneficiary of a good system last year in New England, and the Chiefs got branded as suckers (again, by me) for paying full price. Prove me wrong, kids! Prove me wrong! I don't think the Chiefs will do much this year, but if Larry Johnson can recapture some of his old fire, there's no reason that Kansas City can't be a dangerous stop for any visiting team.
Projected 2009 record: 6-10
Oakland Raiders (5-11)
Key Additions: QB Jeff Garcia, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey
Key Subtractions: S Gibril Wilson, DE Derrick Burgess
Oh my, the Raiders. Every year I expect them to be the worst team in the NFL, and while they usually find a way to back into a few wins, they're always at least among the worst teams. They haven't won more than five games in any season since going to the Super Bowl after the 2002 season. It's really a shame, because Oakland has got good fans and some interesting players. The pick of Heyward-Bey in this year's draft was shocking to most, but he may have the most talent of any receiver in that draft. JaMarcus Russell was everybody's #1 overall pick in 2007, and Darren McFadden was the logical pick in 2008. The Raiders make some interesting decisions, but they seem to know talent when they see it.
This year could be trouble, though. Wilson and Burgess were important parts of the defense last year, and it's a defense that's been getting worse since they surprisingly had the #3 yardage defense in 2006. Michael Huff hasn't impressed since being taken in the first round that season, and he's been pushed to third on the safety depth chart behind two even younger players, Tyvon Branch and Hiram Eugene. I do expect the offense to finally take a little pressure off of the defense, and maybe that'll be enough to help the Raiders win some games.
Projected 2009 record: 3-13
San Diego Chargers (8-8)
Key Additions: DE/LB Larry English
Key Subtractions: none
Talk about a team that is staying the course. The Chargers return virtually every relevant player from last season, including an offense that was second in the NFL in points scored. In fact, the Chargers have been in the top five in points scored every year since 2004. With LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, and Philip Rivers all returning for another go-around, there's no reason they can't plant themselves back near the top.
What they need to take the next step is for their defense to recapture their dominance from 2006 and 2007. They gave up under 300 total yards only three times last season, and gave up over 400 yards on four different occasions. Two of those occasions, however, were against the Jay Cutler-led Broncos, which should be considerably less potent this season without him. The reality is that there's no reason the Chargers can't finish in the top 5 along with their offense, which would make San Diego easily the team to beat in the AFC West. My guess is they wrap up the division by Thanksgiving and lose one or two meaningless games down the stretch (hopefully including their game against Washington to end the season).
Projected 2009 record: 11-5
Thursday, September 3, 2009
2009 AFC South Preview
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans (8-8)
Key Additions: LB Brian Cushing, DE Antonio Smith, DE Connor Barwin
Key Subtractions: RB Ahman Green, QB Sage Rosenfels
Andre Johnson was the key part of the fourth best passing attack in football last year, and if Matt Schaub can stay healthy, there's no reason that ranking can't move up. Of course, that's no sure thing, given that he's only played in eleven games in each of his first two seasons in Houston. RB Green would be a more notable subtraction if Steve Slaton hadn't developed into a high caliber option at tailback. The major concern though, is getting into the end zone. Even with the third most total yardage in football, the Texans were just 17th in points scored. Slaton has to help that, but TE Owen Daniels also carries a responsibility to be a red zone receiving option. He had just two touchdowns last season.
The defense looks to still be a year away from making any big strides, but there's plenty of talent in line to produce. Veteran safety Eugene Wilson is the centerpiece of a defense mostly comprised of players drafted between 2006 and 2009. If the youngsters mature quickly, this defense could get better in a hurry. If not...well, Texans fans had better hope that 4,400 yards passing was a floor for this offense.
Projected 2009 record: 9-7
Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Key Additions: RB Donald Brown, DT Fili Moala
Key Subtractions: WR Marvin Harrison, RB Dominic Rhodes
As the old saying goes, "If it's not broke, don't fix it." That's the story with the Colts, who won at least ten games and made the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year, coinciding with Tony Dungy's tenure as head coach. Following such success puts a lot of pressure on new head coach Jim Caldwell, but the talent is all there for another successful season.
Peyton Manning recorded his ninth career season with at least 4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns. Yes, by the way, it is time to start talking about him among the all-time great quarterbacks. Dominic Rhodes was replaced by rookie Donald Brown out of Connecticut, who has been wowing people in camp and preseason. Joseph Addai is still the starter, but it's obvious that Brown will play a considerable role in the offense. The loss of Harrison isn't as big as it seems, as his production had slipped considerably last season. At age 37, it's unlikely he'll see any major bounceback, so the time had come to move on. Anthony Gonzalez will never be as good as Harrison or Reggie Wayne, but he'll be good enough to keep this offense chugging along.
The defense, meanwhile, continues to be what it's been for years: great pass rush, good pass defense, inept run defense. The advantage comes when the offense and defense both act like themselves in the same game. When Manning puts up points, he forces opponents to pass the ball, playing into the Colts defenders' hands. Dwight Freeney remains an elite pass rusher, but the other defensive end, Robert Mathis, has quietly become just as productive, averaging ten sacks per season over the past five years. So, like always, the game plan against the Colts is, "Don't let Peyton Manning beat you." Good luck.
Projected 2009 record: 12-4
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
Key Additions: WR Torry Holt, S Sean Considine, OT Eugene Monroe
Key Subtractions: RB Fred Taylor, WR Matt Jones, S Gerald Sensabaugh
Okay, so I was a year early when I predicted the Jaguars would be terrible in 2007. Let's not dwell on the past. And what I mean by that is, let's not dwell on the old Jaguars defense that was so good, and let's instead look at the new Jaguars defense, which isn't that good. They've got a high-caliber, big-play secondary, but the front line isn't nearly what it used to be. Nobody on the team had more than 4.5 sacks, and cornerback Brian Williams led the team in tackles. Swapping out Sensabaugh for Considine isn't a big change in talent or syllables.
The offense is going to have to all go through RB Maurice Jones-Drew. With Taylor moving north to New England, MJD has the whole backfield to himself, and he'd better produce, because there's not much else to get excited about here. Holt should still be productive, but how can you get excited about him when he's not even better than Matt Jones, the guy he's replacing? David Garrard threw an absurdly low three interceptions in 2007, and the team won 11 games. He threw a more normal 13 picks last year, and the team finished 5-11. I expect more of the latter this year.
Projected 2009 record: 5-11
Tennessee Titans (13-3)
Key Additions: WR Kenny Britt, WR Nate Washington
Key Subtractions: DT Albert Haynesworth, WR Brandon Jones
The Titans were one of the big surprises last year, and that was due in no small part to the emergence of rookie running back Chris Johnson, and his ability to perfectly complement LenDale White in a speed/power combo. They each found the end zone at least ten times last season, and combined for over 2,000 yards rushing. This ground game allowed Kerry Collins to stay within himself, and he was able to do so perfectly, turning the ball over just 8 times. More impressive, however, is the fact that he was only sacked 8 times as well, an obscene number for any starting quarterback. The additions of Nate Washington (if he can get healthy) and Britt give Collins a more skilled receiving corps, so who knows, maybe the offense could be more balanced this season.
Haynesworth's departure leaves a huge space in the middle of the defensive line (literally and metaphorically). The Titans still have six players who had at least three sacks last season, and their starting secondary had 18 INTs between them last season, so the pass defense should be up to the task. But Haynesworth was a huge body and a big factor in stuffing the run, and that could get opened up with him out of town.
The reality is that Tennessee got a lot of breaks last season, and executed a lot of performances that they're unlikely to repeat. I've always been a fan of Jeff Fisher, and I like a lot of Titans players. That's why I'm sure they'll be disappointing.
Projected 2009 record: 9-7
Houston Texans (8-8)
Key Additions: LB Brian Cushing, DE Antonio Smith, DE Connor Barwin
Key Subtractions: RB Ahman Green, QB Sage Rosenfels
Andre Johnson was the key part of the fourth best passing attack in football last year, and if Matt Schaub can stay healthy, there's no reason that ranking can't move up. Of course, that's no sure thing, given that he's only played in eleven games in each of his first two seasons in Houston. RB Green would be a more notable subtraction if Steve Slaton hadn't developed into a high caliber option at tailback. The major concern though, is getting into the end zone. Even with the third most total yardage in football, the Texans were just 17th in points scored. Slaton has to help that, but TE Owen Daniels also carries a responsibility to be a red zone receiving option. He had just two touchdowns last season.
The defense looks to still be a year away from making any big strides, but there's plenty of talent in line to produce. Veteran safety Eugene Wilson is the centerpiece of a defense mostly comprised of players drafted between 2006 and 2009. If the youngsters mature quickly, this defense could get better in a hurry. If not...well, Texans fans had better hope that 4,400 yards passing was a floor for this offense.
Projected 2009 record: 9-7
Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Key Additions: RB Donald Brown, DT Fili Moala
Key Subtractions: WR Marvin Harrison, RB Dominic Rhodes
As the old saying goes, "If it's not broke, don't fix it." That's the story with the Colts, who won at least ten games and made the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year, coinciding with Tony Dungy's tenure as head coach. Following such success puts a lot of pressure on new head coach Jim Caldwell, but the talent is all there for another successful season.
Peyton Manning recorded his ninth career season with at least 4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns. Yes, by the way, it is time to start talking about him among the all-time great quarterbacks. Dominic Rhodes was replaced by rookie Donald Brown out of Connecticut, who has been wowing people in camp and preseason. Joseph Addai is still the starter, but it's obvious that Brown will play a considerable role in the offense. The loss of Harrison isn't as big as it seems, as his production had slipped considerably last season. At age 37, it's unlikely he'll see any major bounceback, so the time had come to move on. Anthony Gonzalez will never be as good as Harrison or Reggie Wayne, but he'll be good enough to keep this offense chugging along.
The defense, meanwhile, continues to be what it's been for years: great pass rush, good pass defense, inept run defense. The advantage comes when the offense and defense both act like themselves in the same game. When Manning puts up points, he forces opponents to pass the ball, playing into the Colts defenders' hands. Dwight Freeney remains an elite pass rusher, but the other defensive end, Robert Mathis, has quietly become just as productive, averaging ten sacks per season over the past five years. So, like always, the game plan against the Colts is, "Don't let Peyton Manning beat you." Good luck.
Projected 2009 record: 12-4
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
Key Additions: WR Torry Holt, S Sean Considine, OT Eugene Monroe
Key Subtractions: RB Fred Taylor, WR Matt Jones, S Gerald Sensabaugh
Okay, so I was a year early when I predicted the Jaguars would be terrible in 2007. Let's not dwell on the past. And what I mean by that is, let's not dwell on the old Jaguars defense that was so good, and let's instead look at the new Jaguars defense, which isn't that good. They've got a high-caliber, big-play secondary, but the front line isn't nearly what it used to be. Nobody on the team had more than 4.5 sacks, and cornerback Brian Williams led the team in tackles. Swapping out Sensabaugh for Considine isn't a big change in talent or syllables.
The offense is going to have to all go through RB Maurice Jones-Drew. With Taylor moving north to New England, MJD has the whole backfield to himself, and he'd better produce, because there's not much else to get excited about here. Holt should still be productive, but how can you get excited about him when he's not even better than Matt Jones, the guy he's replacing? David Garrard threw an absurdly low three interceptions in 2007, and the team won 11 games. He threw a more normal 13 picks last year, and the team finished 5-11. I expect more of the latter this year.
Projected 2009 record: 5-11
Tennessee Titans (13-3)
Key Additions: WR Kenny Britt, WR Nate Washington
Key Subtractions: DT Albert Haynesworth, WR Brandon Jones
The Titans were one of the big surprises last year, and that was due in no small part to the emergence of rookie running back Chris Johnson, and his ability to perfectly complement LenDale White in a speed/power combo. They each found the end zone at least ten times last season, and combined for over 2,000 yards rushing. This ground game allowed Kerry Collins to stay within himself, and he was able to do so perfectly, turning the ball over just 8 times. More impressive, however, is the fact that he was only sacked 8 times as well, an obscene number for any starting quarterback. The additions of Nate Washington (if he can get healthy) and Britt give Collins a more skilled receiving corps, so who knows, maybe the offense could be more balanced this season.
Haynesworth's departure leaves a huge space in the middle of the defensive line (literally and metaphorically). The Titans still have six players who had at least three sacks last season, and their starting secondary had 18 INTs between them last season, so the pass defense should be up to the task. But Haynesworth was a huge body and a big factor in stuffing the run, and that could get opened up with him out of town.
The reality is that Tennessee got a lot of breaks last season, and executed a lot of performances that they're unlikely to repeat. I've always been a fan of Jeff Fisher, and I like a lot of Titans players. That's why I'm sure they'll be disappointing.
Projected 2009 record: 9-7
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
2009 AFC North Preview
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Key Additions: C Matt Birk, OT Michael Oher, TE L.J. Smith, CB Domonique Foxworth
Key Subtractions: CB Chris McAlister, LB Bart Scott, S Jim Leonhard, CB Corey Ivy
Oher, acquired in the draft, plugs in immediately as the starter at right tackle, and Birk is a Pro Bowl center who'll start immediately. Those additions help solidify a line that allowed Joe Flacco to be sacked 33 times last season. Not that 33 is a terrible number, but it's not a great number either, especially when you note that they attempted the third fewest passes per game. On most teams, L.J. Smith isn't a key addition, but I imagine you'll see he and Todd Heap lined up together more than a few times to help with pass protection, run blocking, and the short passing game.
The Ravens saw a mass exodus of talent from their defense this season, losing four of last year's starters. Foxworth is a decent addition, but the rest of the holes are being addressed in-house. I understand that Ray Lewis has been the face of the franchise, and for one year, Lewis is the guy I'd rather have. But the Ravens have always been pretty good at looking forward, so the decision to put money into Lewis instead of Scott was surprising. I don't see the defense being as good as they were last year, and I don't expect Flacco to be able to take a mediocre receiving corps and make them good.
Projected 2009 record: 8-8
Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)
Key Additions: WR Laveranues Coles, DT Tank Johnson, OL Andre Smith, LB Rey Maualuga, S Roy Williams
Key Subtractions: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Carson Palmer's injury last year was pretty much the entire reason that Cincinnati's season was in the toilet. They had the worst offense in football, both in points and yardage. That's how they went from a .500 team to among the league's worst in just a few seconds. The loss of Houshmandzadeh to the Seahawks doesn't help, but Coles is a fairly logical replacement. Cedric Benson is one of the least appealing options you could have at running back, but unfortunately for them, the Bengals' other options are among those few less appealing ones. This will once again be a pass-first offense.
The Bengals weakness has always been their defense, and they took several steps to attempt to correct that this offseason. They made one big acquisition at each level of the defense, and the hope is that the influx of talent will yield results somewhere. Roy Williams has to prove that his reputation for making big mistakes in Dallas was just a result of over-anxious fans, and not a legitimate concern. And Tank Johnson has to prove that he can go to a team with a reputation like Cincinnati and not get arrested.
Projected 2009 record: 7-9
Cleveland Browns (4-12)
Key Additions: C Alex Mack, WR Brian Robiskie, WR Mohamed Massaquoi, WR Mike Furrey, DE Kenyon Coleman, LB David Bowens, LB Eric Barton, S Abram Elam
Key Subtractions: TE Kellen Winslow Jr., LB Willie McGinest, LB Andra Davis, S Sean Jones
Eric Mangini came in and made wholesale changes almost immediately, bringing in four new defensive starters from his old team, the Jets. He inherited an awful rush defense, so the replacement of most of the linebacking corps is not unreasonable. Sean Jones was a pretty productive safety, so replacing him with a guy who's been on three teams in four years in Elam is a little suspect to me.
Mangini also inherited a quarterback controversy, and he's done nothing to dissipate it. Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are both vying for the starting spot, though it's difficult to know exactly why. Braylon Edwards drops more balls than puberty, Winslow is a thousand miles away, and the rest of the Browns' receivers are either unproven or overproven. Between all of them someone should pan out, but it may take a while. Still, a young and talented offensive line got even better, now that they're entering the Secret World of Alex Mack (look it up).
Projected 2009 record: 6-10
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Key Additions: DE Evander "Ziggy" Hood, WR Shaun McDonald, CB Keiwan Ratliff
Key Subtractions: CB Bryant McFadden, WR Nate Washington
As always, the Steelers continue to build from within. Each of their projected defensive starters was on the team last year, which should mean trouble once again for opposing offenses. It'll also spell disaster for those of us who wish for the Steelers' demise every year. I think that, if the Steelers hadn't won their two recent Super Bowls, I'd probably be fine with them, and even tolerant of their fans. It's much easier to appreciate a team that has a great development plan and fields very good teams when they don't win it all. I'm like the opposite of a bandwagon fan.
Back to the team, pretty much the entire offense returns as well. Rashard Mendenhall should be recovered from his mid-season injury against the Ravens, and they replaced Nate Washington with Shaun McDonald, two players with similar capabilities. Washington is a larger target, but between McDonald and second-year player Limas Sweed, Washington's production should be more than recovered. It's worth mentioning that they went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl even though Ben Roethlisberger had a bad season (don't argue, 17 TDs and 15 INTs, 46 sacks and 14 fumbles is bad). If Roethlisberger can bounce back, take care of the ball a little better, and find the end zone a little more frequently, another trip to the Super Bowl is definitely within their reach.
It's interesting to see two very different but successful teams like the Patriots and Steelers build their teams in very different ways. The Steelers draft players who fit their mold, and take the time to develop them behind veterans. They hardly ever pay top dollar, and continue to replace veterans with young players in-house. The Patriots find under-valued players around the league like Wes Welker and Fred Taylor, and plug them into a potent offensive machine.
Projected 2009 record: 13-3
Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Key Additions: C Matt Birk, OT Michael Oher, TE L.J. Smith, CB Domonique Foxworth
Key Subtractions: CB Chris McAlister, LB Bart Scott, S Jim Leonhard, CB Corey Ivy
Oher, acquired in the draft, plugs in immediately as the starter at right tackle, and Birk is a Pro Bowl center who'll start immediately. Those additions help solidify a line that allowed Joe Flacco to be sacked 33 times last season. Not that 33 is a terrible number, but it's not a great number either, especially when you note that they attempted the third fewest passes per game. On most teams, L.J. Smith isn't a key addition, but I imagine you'll see he and Todd Heap lined up together more than a few times to help with pass protection, run blocking, and the short passing game.
The Ravens saw a mass exodus of talent from their defense this season, losing four of last year's starters. Foxworth is a decent addition, but the rest of the holes are being addressed in-house. I understand that Ray Lewis has been the face of the franchise, and for one year, Lewis is the guy I'd rather have. But the Ravens have always been pretty good at looking forward, so the decision to put money into Lewis instead of Scott was surprising. I don't see the defense being as good as they were last year, and I don't expect Flacco to be able to take a mediocre receiving corps and make them good.
Projected 2009 record: 8-8
Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)
Key Additions: WR Laveranues Coles, DT Tank Johnson, OL Andre Smith, LB Rey Maualuga, S Roy Williams
Key Subtractions: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Carson Palmer's injury last year was pretty much the entire reason that Cincinnati's season was in the toilet. They had the worst offense in football, both in points and yardage. That's how they went from a .500 team to among the league's worst in just a few seconds. The loss of Houshmandzadeh to the Seahawks doesn't help, but Coles is a fairly logical replacement. Cedric Benson is one of the least appealing options you could have at running back, but unfortunately for them, the Bengals' other options are among those few less appealing ones. This will once again be a pass-first offense.
The Bengals weakness has always been their defense, and they took several steps to attempt to correct that this offseason. They made one big acquisition at each level of the defense, and the hope is that the influx of talent will yield results somewhere. Roy Williams has to prove that his reputation for making big mistakes in Dallas was just a result of over-anxious fans, and not a legitimate concern. And Tank Johnson has to prove that he can go to a team with a reputation like Cincinnati and not get arrested.
Projected 2009 record: 7-9
Cleveland Browns (4-12)
Key Additions: C Alex Mack, WR Brian Robiskie, WR Mohamed Massaquoi, WR Mike Furrey, DE Kenyon Coleman, LB David Bowens, LB Eric Barton, S Abram Elam
Key Subtractions: TE Kellen Winslow Jr., LB Willie McGinest, LB Andra Davis, S Sean Jones
Eric Mangini came in and made wholesale changes almost immediately, bringing in four new defensive starters from his old team, the Jets. He inherited an awful rush defense, so the replacement of most of the linebacking corps is not unreasonable. Sean Jones was a pretty productive safety, so replacing him with a guy who's been on three teams in four years in Elam is a little suspect to me.
Mangini also inherited a quarterback controversy, and he's done nothing to dissipate it. Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are both vying for the starting spot, though it's difficult to know exactly why. Braylon Edwards drops more balls than puberty, Winslow is a thousand miles away, and the rest of the Browns' receivers are either unproven or overproven. Between all of them someone should pan out, but it may take a while. Still, a young and talented offensive line got even better, now that they're entering the Secret World of Alex Mack (look it up).
Projected 2009 record: 6-10
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Key Additions: DE Evander "Ziggy" Hood, WR Shaun McDonald, CB Keiwan Ratliff
Key Subtractions: CB Bryant McFadden, WR Nate Washington
As always, the Steelers continue to build from within. Each of their projected defensive starters was on the team last year, which should mean trouble once again for opposing offenses. It'll also spell disaster for those of us who wish for the Steelers' demise every year. I think that, if the Steelers hadn't won their two recent Super Bowls, I'd probably be fine with them, and even tolerant of their fans. It's much easier to appreciate a team that has a great development plan and fields very good teams when they don't win it all. I'm like the opposite of a bandwagon fan.
Back to the team, pretty much the entire offense returns as well. Rashard Mendenhall should be recovered from his mid-season injury against the Ravens, and they replaced Nate Washington with Shaun McDonald, two players with similar capabilities. Washington is a larger target, but between McDonald and second-year player Limas Sweed, Washington's production should be more than recovered. It's worth mentioning that they went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl even though Ben Roethlisberger had a bad season (don't argue, 17 TDs and 15 INTs, 46 sacks and 14 fumbles is bad). If Roethlisberger can bounce back, take care of the ball a little better, and find the end zone a little more frequently, another trip to the Super Bowl is definitely within their reach.
It's interesting to see two very different but successful teams like the Patriots and Steelers build their teams in very different ways. The Steelers draft players who fit their mold, and take the time to develop them behind veterans. They hardly ever pay top dollar, and continue to replace veterans with young players in-house. The Patriots find under-valued players around the league like Wes Welker and Fred Taylor, and plug them into a potent offensive machine.
Projected 2009 record: 13-3
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
2009 AFC East Preview
And now, we move on to the jerk conference. I'm not even going to apologize or mitigate my personal opinions. The AFC is for jerks.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills (7-9)
Key Additions: WR Terrell Owens, DE Aaron Maybin, G Eric Wood
Key Subtractions: CB Jabari Greer, QB J.P. Losman
The "key subtraction" of Losman is really only relevant because it solidifies Trent Edwards as the starting quarterback, and eliminates any potential for an early season quarterback controversy. Edwards should enjoy his best season ever, partly because of maturity, and partly because Owens just makes quarterbacks better. Hate him all you want, but his physical dominance over opponents has helped every quarterback he's played with (Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo). Also, Lee Evans has always struck me as a very good #2 receiver, but not capable of being a #1. The addition of T.O. puts Evans where I believe he can flourish.
With Leodis McKelvin and Donte Whitner, the Bills have got the makings of a pretty good secondary. First round pick Maybin is a Penn State product, which doesn't exactly bode well (LaVar Arrington, Courtney Brown, Ki-Jana Carter), but maybe he and fellow Nittany Lion Paul Posluszny can generate some more pass rush. Doing that could dramatically improve what was just an average defense last year.
Projected 2009 record: 8-8
Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Key Additions: CB Vontae Davis, QB Pat White, C Jake Grove, DE/LB Jason Taylor, S Gibril Wilson
Key Subtractions: DE Vonnie Holliday, S Renaldo Hill
The Dolphins seem to have only improved, and they acquired a perfect weapon for their wildcat formation in Pat White. There are always questions about Ronnie Brown's health and Ricky Williams' commitment, but they're both ready to play come opening kickoff, and both have shown themselves to be solid at one point or another. The maturation of their young receivers (Ted Ginn Jr., Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo) will likely determine how far this team goes.
The Jason Taylor experiment in Washington was a disaster, but he's allegedly back and ready to play for the Dolphins. Do I think it was just a ploy for Taylor to get paid the remainder of his contract and come back to Miami after a year? Of course I do. I'm an emotional, foolish Redskins fan, and Jason Taylor broke my heart.
Anyways, Gibril Wilson is pretty good and Vonnie Holliday's best days are behind him.
Projected 2009 record: 10-6
New England Patriots (11-5)
Key Additions: DB Patrick Chung, CB Shawn Springs, RB Fred Taylor, CB Leigh Bodden
Key Subtractions: QB Matt Cassel, WR Jabar Gaffney, LB Mike Vrabel, CB Ellis Hobbs, CB Deltha O'Neal, S Rodney Harrison
The return of Tom Brady from last year's week 1 season-ending injury is far and away the story with the most mainstream appeal regarding the Patriots, but I would venture to say that the wholesale changes to the secondary are at least as important to this team's success. I don't think I'm alone when I say I don't expect the Patriots to set more offensive records this season as they did in 2007, so the defense will have to at least play occasionally. Replacing Hobbs and O'Neal with Bodden and Springs is most certainly a downgrade, and it'll be interesting to see how the defense works without Mike Vrabel as an anchor for the first time since 2003.
Running back will once again be a question mark for the Patriots, as they'll be boasting perhaps the league's only five-headed monster committee. Laurence Maroney is the favorite to emerge as the featured back, but Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis were all productive at times for the Patriots last year, and they didn't bring Fred Taylor into town to ride the pine. With their talent distribution, though, I'd be surprised if the Patriots weren't back to their old ways of throwing the ball 40 times a game, which favors Faulk, the best pass-catcher of the bunch. Regardless, Randy Moss and Wes Welker will once again be the peanut butter and jelly of an elite receiver sandwich. Try not to think of that in a gross way.
Projected 2009 record: 12-4
New York Jets (9-7)
Key Additions: QB Mark Sanchez, LB Bart Scott, CB Lito Sheppard, RB Shonn Greene, S Jim Leonhard, DE Marques Douglas
Key Subtractions: QB Brett Favre, WR Laveranues Coles, LB Eric Barton, CB Hank Poteat
New head coach Rex Ryan certainly didn't waste any time revamping his defense, bringing Scott, Leonhard, and Douglas from his old team in Baltimore. Eric Barton was the team's leading tackler last season, but Scott should slide comfortably into that role this year. Lito Sheppard was the third wheel in Philly, but he'll be a starter and a lynchpin for the Jets' defense this year.
I know, bla bla bla, defense, who cares? The biggest change this season comes at the biggest position: quarterback. Favre's brief stint in the Big Apple is over, and the Jets traded the farm for Mark Sanchez, who I'll now refer to as "Magic Beans" Sanchez. He could grow into a giant beanstalk that leads to a goose who lays golden eggs. Or it could just be a shortcut to a giant who'll squash the hopes of Jets fans. One thing is for sure though: as goes Sanchez for the next four years, so go the Jets. This year, that means growing pains and patience.
Projected 2009 record: 6-10
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills (7-9)
Key Additions: WR Terrell Owens, DE Aaron Maybin, G Eric Wood
Key Subtractions: CB Jabari Greer, QB J.P. Losman
The "key subtraction" of Losman is really only relevant because it solidifies Trent Edwards as the starting quarterback, and eliminates any potential for an early season quarterback controversy. Edwards should enjoy his best season ever, partly because of maturity, and partly because Owens just makes quarterbacks better. Hate him all you want, but his physical dominance over opponents has helped every quarterback he's played with (Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo). Also, Lee Evans has always struck me as a very good #2 receiver, but not capable of being a #1. The addition of T.O. puts Evans where I believe he can flourish.
With Leodis McKelvin and Donte Whitner, the Bills have got the makings of a pretty good secondary. First round pick Maybin is a Penn State product, which doesn't exactly bode well (LaVar Arrington, Courtney Brown, Ki-Jana Carter), but maybe he and fellow Nittany Lion Paul Posluszny can generate some more pass rush. Doing that could dramatically improve what was just an average defense last year.
Projected 2009 record: 8-8
Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Key Additions: CB Vontae Davis, QB Pat White, C Jake Grove, DE/LB Jason Taylor, S Gibril Wilson
Key Subtractions: DE Vonnie Holliday, S Renaldo Hill
The Dolphins seem to have only improved, and they acquired a perfect weapon for their wildcat formation in Pat White. There are always questions about Ronnie Brown's health and Ricky Williams' commitment, but they're both ready to play come opening kickoff, and both have shown themselves to be solid at one point or another. The maturation of their young receivers (Ted Ginn Jr., Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo) will likely determine how far this team goes.
The Jason Taylor experiment in Washington was a disaster, but he's allegedly back and ready to play for the Dolphins. Do I think it was just a ploy for Taylor to get paid the remainder of his contract and come back to Miami after a year? Of course I do. I'm an emotional, foolish Redskins fan, and Jason Taylor broke my heart.
Anyways, Gibril Wilson is pretty good and Vonnie Holliday's best days are behind him.
Projected 2009 record: 10-6
New England Patriots (11-5)
Key Additions: DB Patrick Chung, CB Shawn Springs, RB Fred Taylor, CB Leigh Bodden
Key Subtractions: QB Matt Cassel, WR Jabar Gaffney, LB Mike Vrabel, CB Ellis Hobbs, CB Deltha O'Neal, S Rodney Harrison
The return of Tom Brady from last year's week 1 season-ending injury is far and away the story with the most mainstream appeal regarding the Patriots, but I would venture to say that the wholesale changes to the secondary are at least as important to this team's success. I don't think I'm alone when I say I don't expect the Patriots to set more offensive records this season as they did in 2007, so the defense will have to at least play occasionally. Replacing Hobbs and O'Neal with Bodden and Springs is most certainly a downgrade, and it'll be interesting to see how the defense works without Mike Vrabel as an anchor for the first time since 2003.
Running back will once again be a question mark for the Patriots, as they'll be boasting perhaps the league's only five-headed monster committee. Laurence Maroney is the favorite to emerge as the featured back, but Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis were all productive at times for the Patriots last year, and they didn't bring Fred Taylor into town to ride the pine. With their talent distribution, though, I'd be surprised if the Patriots weren't back to their old ways of throwing the ball 40 times a game, which favors Faulk, the best pass-catcher of the bunch. Regardless, Randy Moss and Wes Welker will once again be the peanut butter and jelly of an elite receiver sandwich. Try not to think of that in a gross way.
Projected 2009 record: 12-4
New York Jets (9-7)
Key Additions: QB Mark Sanchez, LB Bart Scott, CB Lito Sheppard, RB Shonn Greene, S Jim Leonhard, DE Marques Douglas
Key Subtractions: QB Brett Favre, WR Laveranues Coles, LB Eric Barton, CB Hank Poteat
New head coach Rex Ryan certainly didn't waste any time revamping his defense, bringing Scott, Leonhard, and Douglas from his old team in Baltimore. Eric Barton was the team's leading tackler last season, but Scott should slide comfortably into that role this year. Lito Sheppard was the third wheel in Philly, but he'll be a starter and a lynchpin for the Jets' defense this year.
I know, bla bla bla, defense, who cares? The biggest change this season comes at the biggest position: quarterback. Favre's brief stint in the Big Apple is over, and the Jets traded the farm for Mark Sanchez, who I'll now refer to as "Magic Beans" Sanchez. He could grow into a giant beanstalk that leads to a goose who lays golden eggs. Or it could just be a shortcut to a giant who'll squash the hopes of Jets fans. One thing is for sure though: as goes Sanchez for the next four years, so go the Jets. This year, that means growing pains and patience.
Projected 2009 record: 6-10
Friday, August 28, 2009
2009 NFC West Preview
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Key Additions: RB Chris Wells, CB Bryant McFadden
Key Subtractions: RB Edgerrin James, RB J.J. Arrington, CB Rod Hood, DE Antonio Smith
The Cardinals boasted one of the strongest offenses in the league last year, particularly with regards to their passing game. Swapping Beanie Wells in for Edge should improve their rushing attack, but it's unclear as to how the carries will actually be split up between Wells and Tim Hightower. Anquan Boldin is still in Arizona for now, but he's been unhappy for a while. Someone needs to hook up the Panthers and Cardinals so they can swap Peppers and Muhammad for Boldin and Calais Campbell. Oh well.
Speaking of the Cardinals defense, not great. They gave up the fifth most points in football last season, and allowed a 44% third down conversion rate. That's how you end up 9-7, even if you do make it to the Super Bowl. McFadden is good, but he wasn't the reason the Steelers had such a great defense, and his addition will have a limited positive impact. Unless the aforementioned Campbell progresses considerably, I have a tough time thinking the Cardinals will roll over the NFC West again.
Projected 2009 record: 7-9
San Francisco 49ers (7-9)
Key Additions: WR Michael Crabtree, RB Glen Coffee, CB Dre' Bly
Key Subtractions: RB DeShaun Foster, WR Bryant Johnson
I used to have some faith in the 49ers. I used to think they were a year of maturity away from competing for the NFC West title. Used to. When I really look at this team, they just don't have a lot to get excited about. Shaun Hill, a popular sleeper pick in fantasy football, had at least two turnovers in three of his eight starts. Crabtree isn't even signed yet. Frank Gore and Coffee could be a nice one-two punch, but if we've learned anything from watching football, it's that one-dimensional teams without excellent defenses tend to lose a lot of games (see Rams, circa the past two years).
Bly has probably still got something in the tank, but don't expect him to be the difference here. The defense would be adequate on a strong offensive team, but for San Francisco, you're just looking at another dismal season. I don't see a way for them to take any steps forward this year, no matter how many times Coach Mike Singletary shows his wang.
Projected 2009 record: 5-11
Seattle Seahawks (4-12)
Key Additions: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, LB Aaron Curry, WR Deon Butler, DT Colin Cole
Key Subtractions: RB Maurice Morris, WR Bobby Engram, WR Koren Robinson, LB Julian Peterson, DT Rocky Bernard
Matt Hasselbeck was clipped by the injury bug and was generally ineffective when he did play. But he's got a legitimately dangerous receiver for perhaps the first time in his career, so there are reasons to be optimistic. Engram and Robinson were the beneficiaries of opportunity and still combined for less than 80 catches and 1,000 yards receiving, both of which Houshmandzadeh should surpass on his own. I only mentioned Deon Butler as a key addition because he went to Penn State. It's the very least I can do for a guy who was always good for a 40-yard catch...literally, the very least I can do.
Aaron Curry has #1 overall talent, but fell to the Seahawks at #4 in the draft because he plays linebacker, and linebackers and running backs just don't go as high as other positions. He should step in and immediately make a positive impact for this defense, which is good, because they were awful last year. They gave up the 3rd-most total yards per game, and the most passing yards per game. They ranked 25th in both points scored and points allowed. Still, part of that comes from an inept offense that should be better this season. I expect improvement all around.
Projected 2009 record: 10-6
St. Louis Rams (2-14)
Key Additions: OT Jason Smith, LB James Laurinaitis, WR Laurent Robinson
Key Subtractions: WR Torry Holt, LB Pisa Tinoisamoa
The Rams lost their top tackler in Tinoisamoa, but with a defense was 31st in points allowed, it's debatable as to whether or not a loss from that group is actually a detriment. More important will be the development of second-year player Chris Long, and whether Laurinaitis can conjure images of his father, Road Warrior Animal. I generally don't root for former Buckeyes, but there's an exception clause for the progeny of former professional wrestlers.
Steven Jackson is, and has always been, a wrecking ball, but without some support from the passing game, he'll see way too many 8- and 9-man boxes. Torry Holt may only be a shadow of his former self, but this receiving corps could ill afford to lose any talent. Then again, maybe the 2004 Randy McMichael will show up, and everything will be alright.
Probably not, though.
Projected 2009 record: 4-12
Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Key Additions: RB Chris Wells, CB Bryant McFadden
Key Subtractions: RB Edgerrin James, RB J.J. Arrington, CB Rod Hood, DE Antonio Smith
The Cardinals boasted one of the strongest offenses in the league last year, particularly with regards to their passing game. Swapping Beanie Wells in for Edge should improve their rushing attack, but it's unclear as to how the carries will actually be split up between Wells and Tim Hightower. Anquan Boldin is still in Arizona for now, but he's been unhappy for a while. Someone needs to hook up the Panthers and Cardinals so they can swap Peppers and Muhammad for Boldin and Calais Campbell. Oh well.
Speaking of the Cardinals defense, not great. They gave up the fifth most points in football last season, and allowed a 44% third down conversion rate. That's how you end up 9-7, even if you do make it to the Super Bowl. McFadden is good, but he wasn't the reason the Steelers had such a great defense, and his addition will have a limited positive impact. Unless the aforementioned Campbell progresses considerably, I have a tough time thinking the Cardinals will roll over the NFC West again.
Projected 2009 record: 7-9
San Francisco 49ers (7-9)
Key Additions: WR Michael Crabtree, RB Glen Coffee, CB Dre' Bly
Key Subtractions: RB DeShaun Foster, WR Bryant Johnson
I used to have some faith in the 49ers. I used to think they were a year of maturity away from competing for the NFC West title. Used to. When I really look at this team, they just don't have a lot to get excited about. Shaun Hill, a popular sleeper pick in fantasy football, had at least two turnovers in three of his eight starts. Crabtree isn't even signed yet. Frank Gore and Coffee could be a nice one-two punch, but if we've learned anything from watching football, it's that one-dimensional teams without excellent defenses tend to lose a lot of games (see Rams, circa the past two years).
Bly has probably still got something in the tank, but don't expect him to be the difference here. The defense would be adequate on a strong offensive team, but for San Francisco, you're just looking at another dismal season. I don't see a way for them to take any steps forward this year, no matter how many times Coach Mike Singletary shows his wang.
Projected 2009 record: 5-11
Seattle Seahawks (4-12)
Key Additions: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, LB Aaron Curry, WR Deon Butler, DT Colin Cole
Key Subtractions: RB Maurice Morris, WR Bobby Engram, WR Koren Robinson, LB Julian Peterson, DT Rocky Bernard
Matt Hasselbeck was clipped by the injury bug and was generally ineffective when he did play. But he's got a legitimately dangerous receiver for perhaps the first time in his career, so there are reasons to be optimistic. Engram and Robinson were the beneficiaries of opportunity and still combined for less than 80 catches and 1,000 yards receiving, both of which Houshmandzadeh should surpass on his own. I only mentioned Deon Butler as a key addition because he went to Penn State. It's the very least I can do for a guy who was always good for a 40-yard catch...literally, the very least I can do.
Aaron Curry has #1 overall talent, but fell to the Seahawks at #4 in the draft because he plays linebacker, and linebackers and running backs just don't go as high as other positions. He should step in and immediately make a positive impact for this defense, which is good, because they were awful last year. They gave up the 3rd-most total yards per game, and the most passing yards per game. They ranked 25th in both points scored and points allowed. Still, part of that comes from an inept offense that should be better this season. I expect improvement all around.
Projected 2009 record: 10-6
St. Louis Rams (2-14)
Key Additions: OT Jason Smith, LB James Laurinaitis, WR Laurent Robinson
Key Subtractions: WR Torry Holt, LB Pisa Tinoisamoa
The Rams lost their top tackler in Tinoisamoa, but with a defense was 31st in points allowed, it's debatable as to whether or not a loss from that group is actually a detriment. More important will be the development of second-year player Chris Long, and whether Laurinaitis can conjure images of his father, Road Warrior Animal. I generally don't root for former Buckeyes, but there's an exception clause for the progeny of former professional wrestlers.
Steven Jackson is, and has always been, a wrecking ball, but without some support from the passing game, he'll see way too many 8- and 9-man boxes. Torry Holt may only be a shadow of his former self, but this receiving corps could ill afford to lose any talent. Then again, maybe the 2004 Randy McMichael will show up, and everything will be alright.
Probably not, though.
Projected 2009 record: 4-12
Thursday, August 27, 2009
2009 NFC South Preview
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Key Additions: TE Tony Gonzalez, LB Mike Peterson, DT Peria Jerry
Key Subtractions: LB Keith Brooking, CB Domonique Foxworth
What a story the Falcons were last year. Despite being under the shadow of Michael Vick, they found a way to succeed. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Michael Turner became one of the best QB-WR-RB tandems in football, and they went to the playoffs. Now they've added ultra-professional Tony Gonzalez, giving Ryan another weapon, particularly in the red zone.
Brooking was a key cog to this defense, but Peterson should be able to help fill that gap. The most important position on the team is probably defensive end, where Jamaal Anderson has to prove he was worth the 8th overall pick in 2007. He's had just two sacks in his two years in the NFL, and if the Falcons are going to take another step forward, they'll need Anderson to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The talent is there, though, so I like his chances.
Projected 2009 record: 11-5
Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Key Additions: DE Everette Brown
Key Subtractions: KR/PR Mark Jones, CB Ken Lucas
The Panthers have become a classic Pittsburgh Steelers team, with a strong, punishing defense and a power running attack. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are perhaps the best 1-2 punch in football, and if they kick off 2009 like they finished 2008, good luck to anyone trying to stop them. The defense returns just about everyone, and the Panthers drafted Brown as a potential successor when Peppers inevitably leaves after this season. Never has a player been so frequently talked about as leaving a team and consistently returning. You have to think this season, barring a Super Bowl run, will be Peppers' last in the tobacco state.
I was surprised, though, that the Panthers didn't try to do something about their receivers in the offseason. Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad combined for 2,344 yards receiving, and the next highest total was from tight end Dante Rosario with 209. Dwayne Jarrett is going to need to take a considerable step forward to keep the "Bust" sign from flashing. Of course, how strong do your receivers need to be when you average 4.8 yards per carry?
Projected 2009 record: 11-5
New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Key Additions: CB Malcolm Jenkins, CB Jabari Greer, S Darren Sharper
Key Subtractions: RB Deuce McAllister, CB Jason David
Not surprisingly, very few changes were made to the offensive juggernaut that is the New Orleans Saints. McAllister was allowed to depart, but really he was gone by mid-season last year anyways. Word is that Sean Payton loves running back Pierre Thomas, and Reggie Bush will still get reps as the tailback. Between Bush, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, and Lance Moore, Brees has one of the better receiving corps in football, and he's shown he knows just how to exploit that. Whether that will translate to victories is anyone's guess.
I put Jason David as a key subtraction, but it's also a form of addition by subtraction. David led the team with five interceptions, but got beat week after week for huge plays and touchdowns. He had become a liability, and they let him just last week after another poor performance in the preseason. Darren Sharper should stabilize the secondary, and keep the Saints out of at least a couple of the shootouts they always seem to get into.
Projected 2009 record: 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
Key Additions: TE Kellen Winslow Jr., RB Derrick Ward, QB Josh Freeman, QB Byron Leftwich
Key Subtractions: QB Jeff Garcia, RB Warrick Dunn, LB Cato June, LB Derrick Brooks
It's the end of an era in Tampa Bay, with Derrick Brooks' tenure in Tampa ending relatively unceremoniously (by the way, if you want to call in to your local sports radio station and say something, you'll generally get positive feedback if you say your team should sign Brooks). No one was really added to replace Brooks, so Tampa Bay is looking at youngster Quincy Black to fill in the hole left by Brooks.
The departure that will probably have the greatest impact on the Buccaneers' season, though is Jeff Garcia's. The quarterback job will fall to Luke McCown, Freeman, or Leftwich, none of whom should get you excited. I like the additions of Ward and Winslow, but it's a shame that Garcia is gone, because he actually would've been a pretty good fit for those new players. This is likely going to be a tough year for the Bucs, so I say throw Freeman in there and let's see what he can do.
Projected 2009 record: 4-12
Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Key Additions: TE Tony Gonzalez, LB Mike Peterson, DT Peria Jerry
Key Subtractions: LB Keith Brooking, CB Domonique Foxworth
What a story the Falcons were last year. Despite being under the shadow of Michael Vick, they found a way to succeed. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Michael Turner became one of the best QB-WR-RB tandems in football, and they went to the playoffs. Now they've added ultra-professional Tony Gonzalez, giving Ryan another weapon, particularly in the red zone.
Brooking was a key cog to this defense, but Peterson should be able to help fill that gap. The most important position on the team is probably defensive end, where Jamaal Anderson has to prove he was worth the 8th overall pick in 2007. He's had just two sacks in his two years in the NFL, and if the Falcons are going to take another step forward, they'll need Anderson to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The talent is there, though, so I like his chances.
Projected 2009 record: 11-5
Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Key Additions: DE Everette Brown
Key Subtractions: KR/PR Mark Jones, CB Ken Lucas
The Panthers have become a classic Pittsburgh Steelers team, with a strong, punishing defense and a power running attack. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are perhaps the best 1-2 punch in football, and if they kick off 2009 like they finished 2008, good luck to anyone trying to stop them. The defense returns just about everyone, and the Panthers drafted Brown as a potential successor when Peppers inevitably leaves after this season. Never has a player been so frequently talked about as leaving a team and consistently returning. You have to think this season, barring a Super Bowl run, will be Peppers' last in the tobacco state.
I was surprised, though, that the Panthers didn't try to do something about their receivers in the offseason. Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad combined for 2,344 yards receiving, and the next highest total was from tight end Dante Rosario with 209. Dwayne Jarrett is going to need to take a considerable step forward to keep the "Bust" sign from flashing. Of course, how strong do your receivers need to be when you average 4.8 yards per carry?
Projected 2009 record: 11-5
New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Key Additions: CB Malcolm Jenkins, CB Jabari Greer, S Darren Sharper
Key Subtractions: RB Deuce McAllister, CB Jason David
Not surprisingly, very few changes were made to the offensive juggernaut that is the New Orleans Saints. McAllister was allowed to depart, but really he was gone by mid-season last year anyways. Word is that Sean Payton loves running back Pierre Thomas, and Reggie Bush will still get reps as the tailback. Between Bush, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, and Lance Moore, Brees has one of the better receiving corps in football, and he's shown he knows just how to exploit that. Whether that will translate to victories is anyone's guess.
I put Jason David as a key subtraction, but it's also a form of addition by subtraction. David led the team with five interceptions, but got beat week after week for huge plays and touchdowns. He had become a liability, and they let him just last week after another poor performance in the preseason. Darren Sharper should stabilize the secondary, and keep the Saints out of at least a couple of the shootouts they always seem to get into.
Projected 2009 record: 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
Key Additions: TE Kellen Winslow Jr., RB Derrick Ward, QB Josh Freeman, QB Byron Leftwich
Key Subtractions: QB Jeff Garcia, RB Warrick Dunn, LB Cato June, LB Derrick Brooks
It's the end of an era in Tampa Bay, with Derrick Brooks' tenure in Tampa ending relatively unceremoniously (by the way, if you want to call in to your local sports radio station and say something, you'll generally get positive feedback if you say your team should sign Brooks). No one was really added to replace Brooks, so Tampa Bay is looking at youngster Quincy Black to fill in the hole left by Brooks.
The departure that will probably have the greatest impact on the Buccaneers' season, though is Jeff Garcia's. The quarterback job will fall to Luke McCown, Freeman, or Leftwich, none of whom should get you excited. I like the additions of Ward and Winslow, but it's a shame that Garcia is gone, because he actually would've been a pretty good fit for those new players. This is likely going to be a tough year for the Bucs, so I say throw Freeman in there and let's see what he can do.
Projected 2009 record: 4-12
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
2009 NFC North Preview
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears (9-7)
Key Additions: QB Jay Cutler, LB Pisa Tinoisamoa, OT Orlando Pace
Key Subtractions: QB Kyle Orton, S Mike Brown
The Bears were the talk of the NFL when they traded Orton and a pair of first-round picks for Cutler, and rightly so. Cutler is a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback who should help what's been an anemic passing game for years. Unfortunately, he won't have nearly the receiving corps he had in Denver. Greg Olsen is a developing talent at tight end and Devin Hester has big play ability, but there isn't a legitimate #1 or, really a #2 that you'd be happy about having. Second-year player Matt Forte should again be a beast.
Chicago's defense wasn't as awesome last year as it's been in the past, but it was still solid. Brown was a useful player in the secondary, but the team makes their hay with a dominant front seven. Perhaps if the offense can keep the defense out of bad situations and help with overall field position, the new Monsters of the Midway can get back to being one of the more prolific defenses around. Of course, since I drafted them in my fantasy football league, another year of disappointment is probably in order.
Projected 2009 record: 7-9
Detroit Lions (0-16)
Key Additions: QB Matthew Stafford, RB Maurice Morris, LB Larry Foote, LB Julian Peterson, DB Phillip Buchanon, DB Anthony Henry, S Marquand Manuel, TE Brandon Pettigrew
Key Subtractions: QB Jon Kitna, WR Shaun McDonald, LB Paris Lenon, DB Leigh Bodden, DT Cory Redding
If any team needed an overhaul, it was the record-breakingly bad Detroit Lions, and boy did they get it. Stafford comes into a not horrible situation, though, with talented youngsters Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith already established. Morris will be a reliable backup to Smith, and Pettigrew should be a solid producer over time. Depending on quarterback play (Stafford or Daunte Culpepper), the offense could actually be halfway decent.
Personally, I like everyone they acquired on defense. Julian Peterson is still a contributor, Larry Foote has a pair of Super Bowl rings, and Buchanon and Henry will step in and start immediately. I know it sounds ridiculous, but Detroit looks like a .500 team. They're still the Lions, though, so they'll have some psychological barriers to overcome, but I like the direction they're heading.
Projected 2009 record: 5-11
Green Bay Packers (6-10)
Key Additions: DT B.J. Raji, LB Clay Matthews
Key Subtractions: none
The Packers are an interesting team to look at, because they're fairly young on both sides of the ball, and made virtually no changes to their roster outside of the draft. Raji and Matthews should provide depth in their front seven, with Raji developing eventually into the big body in the middle of their 3-4 defense. But neither rookie is being leaned on heavily this season, which means we're going to see mostly the same team we saw last year.
Aaron Rodgers has (or at least by now should have) made people forget about the Brett Favre saga (even with Favre donning purple and yellow this season), because he's blossomed into a legitimate star. Don't be surprised if he leads the NFL in passer rating this season. Ryan Grant needs to get more consistent and make sure he can stay on the field all season if he wants to be the man in Green Bay. Greg Jennings is a stud. And I mean that in every way you're thinking.
Projected 2009 record: 10-6
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
Key Additions: QB Brett Favre, QB Sage Rosenfels, WR Percy Harvin
Key Subtractions: S Darren Sharper
The Vikings were one of the most talked-about teams this offseason, largely due to Favre's hemming and hawing about whether or not he wanted to return to football or stay retired. Inevitably, the deadline for Favre had passed and he had declared he wouldn't be playing, and then two weeks later he was signing his new contract with Minnesota. I'm not even sure this is a good thing for the Vikings, though. Rosenfels seemed to be a pretty good fit for the Vikings, a guy who can manage a game and make the occasional big play. Favre puts the whole offense on red alert, in both a good and bad way. They'll have more big plays, but also more turnovers.
Harvin might be the key to the whole season, though. If he can be productive as a rookie and give opposing defenses someone to watch out for besides Adrian Peterson, the whole offense could open up. If not, the Vikings will still be a wide receiver away from having a meaningful receiving corps. And if you can't get the ball downfield, the only All Day we'll be talking about is how there were 9 in the box against Peterson, all day.
Projected 2009 record: 8-8
Chicago Bears (9-7)
Key Additions: QB Jay Cutler, LB Pisa Tinoisamoa, OT Orlando Pace
Key Subtractions: QB Kyle Orton, S Mike Brown
The Bears were the talk of the NFL when they traded Orton and a pair of first-round picks for Cutler, and rightly so. Cutler is a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback who should help what's been an anemic passing game for years. Unfortunately, he won't have nearly the receiving corps he had in Denver. Greg Olsen is a developing talent at tight end and Devin Hester has big play ability, but there isn't a legitimate #1 or, really a #2 that you'd be happy about having. Second-year player Matt Forte should again be a beast.
Chicago's defense wasn't as awesome last year as it's been in the past, but it was still solid. Brown was a useful player in the secondary, but the team makes their hay with a dominant front seven. Perhaps if the offense can keep the defense out of bad situations and help with overall field position, the new Monsters of the Midway can get back to being one of the more prolific defenses around. Of course, since I drafted them in my fantasy football league, another year of disappointment is probably in order.
Projected 2009 record: 7-9
Detroit Lions (0-16)
Key Additions: QB Matthew Stafford, RB Maurice Morris, LB Larry Foote, LB Julian Peterson, DB Phillip Buchanon, DB Anthony Henry, S Marquand Manuel, TE Brandon Pettigrew
Key Subtractions: QB Jon Kitna, WR Shaun McDonald, LB Paris Lenon, DB Leigh Bodden, DT Cory Redding
If any team needed an overhaul, it was the record-breakingly bad Detroit Lions, and boy did they get it. Stafford comes into a not horrible situation, though, with talented youngsters Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith already established. Morris will be a reliable backup to Smith, and Pettigrew should be a solid producer over time. Depending on quarterback play (Stafford or Daunte Culpepper), the offense could actually be halfway decent.
Personally, I like everyone they acquired on defense. Julian Peterson is still a contributor, Larry Foote has a pair of Super Bowl rings, and Buchanon and Henry will step in and start immediately. I know it sounds ridiculous, but Detroit looks like a .500 team. They're still the Lions, though, so they'll have some psychological barriers to overcome, but I like the direction they're heading.
Projected 2009 record: 5-11
Green Bay Packers (6-10)
Key Additions: DT B.J. Raji, LB Clay Matthews
Key Subtractions: none
The Packers are an interesting team to look at, because they're fairly young on both sides of the ball, and made virtually no changes to their roster outside of the draft. Raji and Matthews should provide depth in their front seven, with Raji developing eventually into the big body in the middle of their 3-4 defense. But neither rookie is being leaned on heavily this season, which means we're going to see mostly the same team we saw last year.
Aaron Rodgers has (or at least by now should have) made people forget about the Brett Favre saga (even with Favre donning purple and yellow this season), because he's blossomed into a legitimate star. Don't be surprised if he leads the NFL in passer rating this season. Ryan Grant needs to get more consistent and make sure he can stay on the field all season if he wants to be the man in Green Bay. Greg Jennings is a stud. And I mean that in every way you're thinking.
Projected 2009 record: 10-6
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
Key Additions: QB Brett Favre, QB Sage Rosenfels, WR Percy Harvin
Key Subtractions: S Darren Sharper
The Vikings were one of the most talked-about teams this offseason, largely due to Favre's hemming and hawing about whether or not he wanted to return to football or stay retired. Inevitably, the deadline for Favre had passed and he had declared he wouldn't be playing, and then two weeks later he was signing his new contract with Minnesota. I'm not even sure this is a good thing for the Vikings, though. Rosenfels seemed to be a pretty good fit for the Vikings, a guy who can manage a game and make the occasional big play. Favre puts the whole offense on red alert, in both a good and bad way. They'll have more big plays, but also more turnovers.
Harvin might be the key to the whole season, though. If he can be productive as a rookie and give opposing defenses someone to watch out for besides Adrian Peterson, the whole offense could open up. If not, the Vikings will still be a wide receiver away from having a meaningful receiving corps. And if you can't get the ball downfield, the only All Day we'll be talking about is how there were 9 in the box against Peterson, all day.
Projected 2009 record: 8-8
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
2009 NFC East Preview
I know you wish we would do an NFL preview radio show as we have in the past, but we're trying to focus our efforts into the blog right now. We do have a radio show in the works, though; it's an old gimmick with a new flavor, and we're looking forward to releasing it when the time is right.
For now, please enjoy our team-by-team breakdown of the NFC, starting with perhaps the most unpredictable division.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys (2008 Record: 9-7)
Key Additions: LB Keith Brooking, DE Igor Olshansky
Key Subtractions: WR Terrell Owens, CB Adam Jones, S Roy Williams
The loss of Owens is going to have a huge impact on this team. The question, though, is whether it's a positive or negative impact. My instinct is to say a negative impact, but who really knows? There's no question that, as the one true team sport, football demands a level of trust in your teammates, and Owens isn't exactly a model citizen.
I am a little perplexed at the offseason moves, though. Lose T.O., add two new starters to your front seven on defense? The Cowboys must be expecting a lot out of guys like Miles Austin, Patrick Crayton, and Martellus Bennett. It could work out, if the defense really improves, and if Tony Romo can be a star quarterback without his star wide receiver. Certainly Jason Witten and Roy Williams aren't slouches, and Marion Barber is surprisingly effective out of the backfield for a big running back. Still, Owens was their most dangerous receiver, and without replacing him, the pressure on everyone else is substantial.
Projected 2009 record: 6-10
New York Giants (12-4)
Key Additions: LB Michael Boley, WR Hakeem Nicks
Key Subtractions: RB Derrick Ward, WR Plaxico Burress, WR Amani Toomer, S James Butler,
Plaxico Burress may have shot himself in the leg, but his absence crippled an otherwise solid passing attack. The Giants drafted Hakeem Nicks in the first round, but the more logical replacements for Burress' production are Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith. No, the other Steve Smith. Eli Manning should thank his stars that Brandon Jacobs is back, and appears healthy.
Perhaps the most important "acquisition" will be the return of Osi Umenyiora, the Giants' premier defensive end. He and Justin Tuck are the bookends of one of the strongest defensive lines of the past decade. They're so good, they make an average secondary look exceptional. Unfortunately, the Giants will be relying on their defense more than previously, and I expect that, eventually, those corners will get exposed. Eventually like, this year.
Projected 2009 record: 8-8
Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) Key Additions: QB Michael Vick, WR Jeremy Maclin, RB LeSean McCoy
Key Subtractions: S Brian Dawkins, RB Correll Buckhalter
Regardless of personnel, there were two things you could count on from the Eagles for the past decade: they were going to throw the ball a lot, and they were going to blitz all the time. The passing of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson (rest in peace) obviously leaves a void in the hearts of veteran Eagles, but I have faith that we'll see the same aggressive play from Philly defenders this season as we've always seen. Dawkins' departure leaves a big hole in the middle of the defense, though, and it's up to second-year player Quintin Demps to fill it. Good luck, kid.
Offensively, the team looks even better than last year. DeSean Jackson is a year older and should be just as explosive. Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook remain the focal points of the offense, but Vick and McCoy give the Eagles more weapons. Anybody want to bet against the Eagles having the most plays of 50+ yards this season? They could be an awesome team to watch. Plus there's always the chance someone from PETA goes ape and jumps Vick coming out of the tunnel. So, multiple reasons to watch Eagles games this year.
Projected 2009 record: 12-4
Washington Redskins (8-8) Key Additions: DL Albert Haynesworth, LB Brian Orakpo
Key Subtractions: DB Shawn Springs, DE/LB Jason Taylor
The Redskins return their offense virtually 100% intact, which could be good, could be bad. Jason Campbell is in the last year of his contract, so he's playing for a contract. Santana Moss and Chris Cooley are two of the more consistent receivers in the conference, but someone else has to step up to take some heat off of them. I'm looking at you, second-year receivers Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, and second-year tight end Fred Davis.
Haynesworth signed a $6 billion contract, so Washington fans are expecting a lot out of him. The secondary will suffer without Springs available to play all positions, but between Carlos Rogers and DeAngelo Hall, there's at least plenty of talent at cornerback. The 'Skins were 6th in the NFL in points allowed, but 28th in sacks. Increased pressure on opposing quarterbacks could turn Washington into a powerhouse defense. Hopefully Haynesworth's wallet doesn't weigh him down.
Projected 2009 record: 9-7
For now, please enjoy our team-by-team breakdown of the NFC, starting with perhaps the most unpredictable division.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys (2008 Record: 9-7)
Key Additions: LB Keith Brooking, DE Igor Olshansky
Key Subtractions: WR Terrell Owens, CB Adam Jones, S Roy Williams
The loss of Owens is going to have a huge impact on this team. The question, though, is whether it's a positive or negative impact. My instinct is to say a negative impact, but who really knows? There's no question that, as the one true team sport, football demands a level of trust in your teammates, and Owens isn't exactly a model citizen.
I am a little perplexed at the offseason moves, though. Lose T.O., add two new starters to your front seven on defense? The Cowboys must be expecting a lot out of guys like Miles Austin, Patrick Crayton, and Martellus Bennett. It could work out, if the defense really improves, and if Tony Romo can be a star quarterback without his star wide receiver. Certainly Jason Witten and Roy Williams aren't slouches, and Marion Barber is surprisingly effective out of the backfield for a big running back. Still, Owens was their most dangerous receiver, and without replacing him, the pressure on everyone else is substantial.
Projected 2009 record: 6-10
New York Giants (12-4)
Key Additions: LB Michael Boley, WR Hakeem Nicks
Key Subtractions: RB Derrick Ward, WR Plaxico Burress, WR Amani Toomer, S James Butler,
Plaxico Burress may have shot himself in the leg, but his absence crippled an otherwise solid passing attack. The Giants drafted Hakeem Nicks in the first round, but the more logical replacements for Burress' production are Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith. No, the other Steve Smith. Eli Manning should thank his stars that Brandon Jacobs is back, and appears healthy.
Perhaps the most important "acquisition" will be the return of Osi Umenyiora, the Giants' premier defensive end. He and Justin Tuck are the bookends of one of the strongest defensive lines of the past decade. They're so good, they make an average secondary look exceptional. Unfortunately, the Giants will be relying on their defense more than previously, and I expect that, eventually, those corners will get exposed. Eventually like, this year.
Projected 2009 record: 8-8
Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) Key Additions: QB Michael Vick, WR Jeremy Maclin, RB LeSean McCoy
Key Subtractions: S Brian Dawkins, RB Correll Buckhalter
Regardless of personnel, there were two things you could count on from the Eagles for the past decade: they were going to throw the ball a lot, and they were going to blitz all the time. The passing of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson (rest in peace) obviously leaves a void in the hearts of veteran Eagles, but I have faith that we'll see the same aggressive play from Philly defenders this season as we've always seen. Dawkins' departure leaves a big hole in the middle of the defense, though, and it's up to second-year player Quintin Demps to fill it. Good luck, kid.
Offensively, the team looks even better than last year. DeSean Jackson is a year older and should be just as explosive. Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook remain the focal points of the offense, but Vick and McCoy give the Eagles more weapons. Anybody want to bet against the Eagles having the most plays of 50+ yards this season? They could be an awesome team to watch. Plus there's always the chance someone from PETA goes ape and jumps Vick coming out of the tunnel. So, multiple reasons to watch Eagles games this year.
Projected 2009 record: 12-4
Washington Redskins (8-8) Key Additions: DL Albert Haynesworth, LB Brian Orakpo
Key Subtractions: DB Shawn Springs, DE/LB Jason Taylor
The Redskins return their offense virtually 100% intact, which could be good, could be bad. Jason Campbell is in the last year of his contract, so he's playing for a contract. Santana Moss and Chris Cooley are two of the more consistent receivers in the conference, but someone else has to step up to take some heat off of them. I'm looking at you, second-year receivers Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, and second-year tight end Fred Davis.
Haynesworth signed a $6 billion contract, so Washington fans are expecting a lot out of him. The secondary will suffer without Springs available to play all positions, but between Carlos Rogers and DeAngelo Hall, there's at least plenty of talent at cornerback. The 'Skins were 6th in the NFL in points allowed, but 28th in sacks. Increased pressure on opposing quarterbacks could turn Washington into a powerhouse defense. Hopefully Haynesworth's wallet doesn't weigh him down.
Projected 2009 record: 9-7
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
How To Rate A Movie
I opened a Netflix account a few months ago, and have been enjoying the movie-watching opportunities it's offered. I generally don't see many movies, so this has been my opportunity to catch up on all those "have to see" films.
Facebook offers a feature whereby your Netflix ratings (which Netflix uses to determine what kind of movies you might like and suggests them) are posted on Facebook for all to see. So when I gave the second Fantastic Four movie two stars, my friends saw that I didn't think much of the movie. Likewise, when I ranked High Fidelity as a five-star movie, Facebook automatically relayed that information.
As my ratings have become public, I've started to give them a little more thought, and the most recent movie I've watched has given me some trouble: Taken. It's by no means an intellectual movie, and it doesn't have that big twist that's been seemingly mandatory ever since The Usual Suspects came out. But I found it very entertaining, and also thought it had a satisfying ending.
So the dilemma is this: Do I rate the movie with regards to how impressive it is, how thoughtful the script is, and how powerful it is? Or do I rate it simply with how happy I was to have watched it afterward?
I choose the latter. For me, the ultimate test of a work is not (and never has been) whether the piece showed expertise or inspiration, but whether or not I enjoyed it. I gave The Rock five stars a couple months ago, and unknowingly used this exact logic.
I've spent most my life enjoying "lame" music, watching "nerdy" movies, and just generally being a "geek" or "dork." I like what I like, and after 29 years of life, maybe it's time to fully embrace that. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to listen to some Michael McDonald, watch a couple Harry Potter movies, and see if that Magic: The Gathering game has come out for the Xbox Live Arcade yet (it apparently has).
Facebook offers a feature whereby your Netflix ratings (which Netflix uses to determine what kind of movies you might like and suggests them) are posted on Facebook for all to see. So when I gave the second Fantastic Four movie two stars, my friends saw that I didn't think much of the movie. Likewise, when I ranked High Fidelity as a five-star movie, Facebook automatically relayed that information.
As my ratings have become public, I've started to give them a little more thought, and the most recent movie I've watched has given me some trouble: Taken. It's by no means an intellectual movie, and it doesn't have that big twist that's been seemingly mandatory ever since The Usual Suspects came out. But I found it very entertaining, and also thought it had a satisfying ending.
So the dilemma is this: Do I rate the movie with regards to how impressive it is, how thoughtful the script is, and how powerful it is? Or do I rate it simply with how happy I was to have watched it afterward?
I choose the latter. For me, the ultimate test of a work is not (and never has been) whether the piece showed expertise or inspiration, but whether or not I enjoyed it. I gave The Rock five stars a couple months ago, and unknowingly used this exact logic.
I've spent most my life enjoying "lame" music, watching "nerdy" movies, and just generally being a "geek" or "dork." I like what I like, and after 29 years of life, maybe it's time to fully embrace that. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to listen to some Michael McDonald, watch a couple Harry Potter movies, and see if that Magic: The Gathering game has come out for the Xbox Live Arcade yet (it apparently has).
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Stephen Strasburg Still Without Contract
Stephen Strasburg, the pitching phenom from San Diego State, remains unsigned with just a few days left until the deadline. This was expected. The Nationals did not want a long negotiation to drive the price up but we are now entering crunch time. It is in Strasburg’s best interest to sign and it is in the National’s best interest to sign Strasburg. The X-Factor is agent Scott Boras.
Why Should Strasburg Sign? Strasburg is a flamethrower. And flamethrowers burn out. It’s in the definition, somewhere towards the back I think. He could go back to school or play independent ball. This is where I tend to get lost in the math. How could it make more financial sense to not sign that first contract and get the clock ticking so that you can hit free agency for the real pay day? Mark Prior was huge coming out of school and still got around a $10 million contract. Is Strasburg viewed as being five times as valuable as Prior was then? Nope. And at the time Prior was praised because his delivery would not lead to arm problems. Wrong, but it led to how he was valued at the time. I have not heard the same sentiment about Strasburg. He will probably be offered around $15-$20 million, doubling up Prior, and he should take it.
Why the Should the Nationals Sign Strasburg? Because he is supposed to be the best? The Nationals knew what Strasburg/Boras would be looking for in terms of a contract when they drafted him. It would have been by no means the first time that the best player in the draft would be passed over for a more affordable option. But they took him so they should probably finish it. Generally speaking, the Nationals don’t give their fans a whole lot to come out to the park to see. The Dmitri Young Renaissance in 2007 was nice, but Strasburg could be an even bigger deal in DC (hard to imagine). Speaking of Young, he was given a 2 year $10M extension for his work in 2007 so the Nats aren’t that tight on money.
What is Boras up to? Boras is trying to get Strasburg the most money he can. This is what Strasburg is paying Boras to do, so that checks out. The problem is that I don’t see how Strasburg is going to make more money in next year’s draft. So he should sign now. Obviously the Nationals want to sign him but know that Strasburg does too. However, if Strasburg were not to sign and re-enter the draft, that scenario would help Boras in his negotiations with future top rated college and high school prospects. The team will know that Boras is willing to let his client go unsigned. He may do that if he feels the memory of Philadelphia’s selection of JD Drew is fading. JD Drew signed a contract with the Dodgers (opting out two years into it) and the Red Sox that were both worth more than $10M per season. He would have been able to get one more of those if he had a year earlier. Once again, we see that skipping a year does not pay.
What should the Nationals do once if they Sign Strasburg? They probably shouldn’t let him pitch this year, at least for the big league team. However, next year if he looks good in spring training, I’d bring him up. I’m just never sure how many bullets a guy that throws that hard has, so they might as well be shot at the big league level. It will also boost attendance significantly when he does pitch. Now all the Nats need to do is get the first pick again and draft/sign Bryce Harper, a likely Scott Boras client…
Why Should Strasburg Sign? Strasburg is a flamethrower. And flamethrowers burn out. It’s in the definition, somewhere towards the back I think. He could go back to school or play independent ball. This is where I tend to get lost in the math. How could it make more financial sense to not sign that first contract and get the clock ticking so that you can hit free agency for the real pay day? Mark Prior was huge coming out of school and still got around a $10 million contract. Is Strasburg viewed as being five times as valuable as Prior was then? Nope. And at the time Prior was praised because his delivery would not lead to arm problems. Wrong, but it led to how he was valued at the time. I have not heard the same sentiment about Strasburg. He will probably be offered around $15-$20 million, doubling up Prior, and he should take it.
Why the Should the Nationals Sign Strasburg? Because he is supposed to be the best? The Nationals knew what Strasburg/Boras would be looking for in terms of a contract when they drafted him. It would have been by no means the first time that the best player in the draft would be passed over for a more affordable option. But they took him so they should probably finish it. Generally speaking, the Nationals don’t give their fans a whole lot to come out to the park to see. The Dmitri Young Renaissance in 2007 was nice, but Strasburg could be an even bigger deal in DC (hard to imagine). Speaking of Young, he was given a 2 year $10M extension for his work in 2007 so the Nats aren’t that tight on money.
What is Boras up to? Boras is trying to get Strasburg the most money he can. This is what Strasburg is paying Boras to do, so that checks out. The problem is that I don’t see how Strasburg is going to make more money in next year’s draft. So he should sign now. Obviously the Nationals want to sign him but know that Strasburg does too. However, if Strasburg were not to sign and re-enter the draft, that scenario would help Boras in his negotiations with future top rated college and high school prospects. The team will know that Boras is willing to let his client go unsigned. He may do that if he feels the memory of Philadelphia’s selection of JD Drew is fading. JD Drew signed a contract with the Dodgers (opting out two years into it) and the Red Sox that were both worth more than $10M per season. He would have been able to get one more of those if he had a year earlier. Once again, we see that skipping a year does not pay.
What should the Nationals do once if they Sign Strasburg? They probably shouldn’t let him pitch this year, at least for the big league team. However, next year if he looks good in spring training, I’d bring him up. I’m just never sure how many bullets a guy that throws that hard has, so they might as well be shot at the big league level. It will also boost attendance significantly when he does pitch. Now all the Nats need to do is get the first pick again and draft/sign Bryce Harper, a likely Scott Boras client…
Friday, August 7, 2009
2009 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet - TE
Other cheat sheets:
QB | WR | RB | TE
QB | WR | RB | TE
- Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers - The difference between Gates and Witten is minuscule, but I'm giving the edge to Gates. He's got a better history of scoring touchdowns, and I worry about how defenses may be able to clamp down on Witten with Terrell Owens out of the picture in Dallas.
- Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys - Witten has been Tony Romo's favorite target (and good buddy) pretty much since Romo started playing quarterback for the Cowboys. Roy Williams replaces Terrell Owens as the #1 receiver on the team, which could mean more double-teams for Witten. We'll find out soon if Witten actually deserves the accolades he's been getting in fantasy circles.
- Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons - Gonzalez moves to a much more impressive offensive team, and he was far and away the #1 fantasy tight end last year. He's got a little more wear on his tires than you'd like, but he's been the model of consistency. You can take him with confidence.
- Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts - Clark set career highs in receptions and yards last season, although his touchdown catches dropped from 11 to 6. That can be partly attributed to a weak running game, which should be stronger this season. I expect Clark to once again be a prime red zone target for Peyton Manning.
- Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins - Lost in the weakness of the Redskins' wide receivers is the fact that Cooley has developed into one of the most consistently productive tight ends in football. He only notched one touchdown last season, but had at least six in every other season of his career. There's no reason to think he won't get back there.
- Kellen Winslow Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Winslow seemed on the path to greatness after consecutive 80+ catch seasons, but he got hurt and faltered last year. He allegedly has an attitude problem, but come on, everybody in football has a little bit of an attitude problem. Winslow's at least got the talent to be #1 on this list.
- Owen Daniels, Houston Texans - Oftentimes, the sexy TE pick in the preseason ends up disappointing (remember Boo Williams?). Daniels is an example of one who didn't disappoint. He's in a fairly high-powered offense, and while he hasn't been much of a red zone threat, he's a productive tight end, which means he's always just a play away.
- Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears - There are about fifty rankings that changed when Jay Cutler got traded to Chicago, not the least of which was a bump for Greg Olsen. I'm not certain it's warranted, as Cutler should be able to do more with his wide receivers than Kyle Orton did. Still, talent is talent.
- Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders - Miller was far and away the best receiver on the Raiders last year. The problem, of course, is that we're talking about the Raiders, so nobody was great, and there's no reason to think they'll be much better this year. But a repeat performance seems reasonable.
- John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks - The addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh is expected to be almost as important to Seattle as Cutler's addition is to Chicago. Housh should open things up for other receivers, and Carlson figures to benefit as much as anyone.
- Dustin Keller, New York Jets - Keller was a productive rookie last season, but any projected improvements based on experience are mitigated by the quarterback situation in New York. The loss of Laveranues Coles without any replacement doesn't help, either.
- Bo Scaife, Tennessee Titans - Scaife has improved in three consecutive seasons, but still can't seem to plant himself in the end zone (his career high is 2 TDs). He'll split time with Alge Crumpler as well, but I can see a breakout happening for Scaife this season, specifically in the scoring department.
- Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints - There was never a player who made more off of one play than Shockey did when he ran over that guy on the Texans. He hasn't matched his reception or yardage totals from his rookie season, and has never played all 16 games. But with the Saints' passing attack, he'll be good enough to take a flier on late.
- Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos - Scheffler was by no means a powerhouse last year, but he was solid, and fairly consistent when he was healthy. Unfortunately, his health itself was inconsistent. Whenever he plays, though, he should be good for at least 50 yards.
- Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers - Lots of people, including myself, thought Heath Miller would flourish in Pittsburgh, with their reputation for hard yards and conservative passing. But the Steelers are much more of a downfield team than their reputation would suggest, and Miller has just been okay. He's a big body, well-suited for red zone offense, so he's a decent roll of the dice from week to week.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
2009 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet - RB
Other cheat sheets:
QB | WR | RB | TE
QB | WR | RB | TE
- Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings - I've closed the gap between #1 and #2, but I've still got Peterson at the top. The advantage of Peterson is that we've seen him be productive with the full-time starter job now, and he was still fantastic. Favre would've probably helped Peterson's production, but either way, he's my #1.
- Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars - Jones-Drew could be the best player in fantasy football when the year comes to a close. By the end of last year, he was already looking like a surefire top 5 pick this season, and that was with the assumption that he still wasn't going to get full-time carries. With Fred Taylor ring-hunting in New England, MJD looks like a good bet to explode.
- Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - What I like about Turner is what we all used to like about Rudi Johnson. He doesn't have bad games, he scores a lot, gets a lot of yards. Turner seems a lot faster than Johnson was, though, and he's on a team that seems headed in the right direction.
- DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers - I read somewhere that a 60/40 time share with Jonathan Stewart will hurt Williams' ability to produce this year. Last year, while Williams was destroying defenses, the ratio was 273/184, or 59.7/40.3. You'll have to excuse me if I don't think Stewart's presence will cause that much damage.
- LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers - Tomlinson is in the most precarious position he's seen in nearly a decade. His production has slipped a little in the past couple of years, and his backup (Darren Sproles) was slapped with a franchise tag. News flash: You don't pay a true backup running back $7 million. Sproles will cut into Tomlinson's playing time. How much will depend on Tomlinson.
- Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - The part of Forte's game that is most impressive is his ability to produce as a receiver. While swapping out Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler will likely result in more of a downfield passing attack, stretching the field should give Forte more room to run. I expect a marginal decline in receiving yards, but a pleasant uptick in his ground attack.
- Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams - Jackson has frustrated owners for several years now, with amazing production but inconsistent health. If he can stay on the field all season, both he and the Rams could see a revival. If not, he'll just be another running back who under-produced.
- Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants - Jacobs makes opposing defenses cringe when he comes barreling out of the backfield. He's as big as a defensive end, but he's got surprising speed as well. He'll pile up touchdowns and get solid yardage, and just generally make you happy you drafted him.
- Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers - Gore was a solid if unspectacular option at running back. But in 2007, he was all spectacle. Between the two seasons, he's shown he can be both reliable and explosive. I like that combination.
- Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles - He's never been the model of consistency, and he's getting older now. People say, "He didn't get that many carries early on." True, but he still walked around and lived his life, and he practiced as much as his oft-injured body would allow. He's got enough miles and enough unpredictability that he'll never end up on my team.
- Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys - Barber technically played in 15 games last year, but in the last five games he was too banged up to factor into the offense. He's a touchdown hawk, and a punishing runner. Barber is also a nice contributor in the passing game, giving him another way to grab you a few bonus points.
- Steve Slaton, Houston Texans - Slaton was a late season surprise, posting six games of 100+ combined rushing/receiving yards in the second half. He figures to be the featured back from week one this year, which at least gives him the opportunity to excel. He also works well in the passing game, catching at least four passes in five different games.
- Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans - Johnson was explosive in a time share with LenDale White last season, reaching 160 total yards in three different games. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry, a number that figures to drop a bit this year as he gets more consistent carries. Even so, he'll likely be a great producer, and he's got top 5 upside.
- Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins - Portis started the season on fire, including five straight weeks of 120+ rushing yards. His second half was a different story, though, averaging 68 yards per game and scoring just two TDs. He's also invisible in the passing game. Portis is a reliable starter without any legitimate competition behind him, so draft him like he's Deuce McAllister of yore.
- Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints - Speaking of Deuce, here's the guy replacing him. Thomas only got substantial carries in seven games last year, and he averaged over 5 yards a carry in those games. He also scored nine touchdowns in those games. While the Saints continue to be a pass-happy squad, Thomas is the featured back in the most potent offense in the NFL. I'm buying.
- Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions - It's been years since a Lion has been a big time fantasy factor at running back, but Kevin Smith (not that Kevin Smith) looks like he's changing all that. Once he got consistent carries last season, he was productive. While Detroit is still a ways off from being an offense you want to invest in, Smith will fall backwards into a thousand yards, and could be quite a bit better.
- Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers - The big time surprise from 2007 was less explosive but still solid in 2008. You wish he were a bigger part of such a potent passing attack, but consistent, solid rushing yards have their value as well. He's not an exciting pick, but he could be good value if he sniffs the end zone a little more ("sniffs" is the metaphor there, not "end zone").
- Thomas Jones, New York Jets - Who has two thumbs and was in the top five in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns last season? This guy. You're right not to expect the same kind of production this year, with the Jets' passing game in a sad state, but you'd be wrong to avoid Jones altogether. It's obvious he can produce.
- Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins - Brown wasn't particularly good in 2008, outside of a couple of games, but he was coming off of a knee injury that may have made him tentative. After getting through all 16 games last season, Brown should be more confident, leading to more productivity.
- Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs are looking at a new QB, new coach, and their first season in over a decade without Tony Gonzalez. In a situation like that, you have to think that they'd like to be able to rely on the ground game. If Johnson can avoid the injury bug, this is a great opportunity for him to bounce back in a big way.
- Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts - Addai was one of the bigger disappointments last season, due both to injury and unspectacular play. Fantasy football owners have always liked what Addai can bring to the table, but the Colts drafted Donald Brown in the first round, so he'll clearly play. Addai could muscle Brown into a minimal role, but more likely is a time share that hurts both players' values.
- Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints - Bush was fairly productive last season before getting hurt in week 7, specifically in the passing game. He had four 60+ receiving yard games and three receiving touchdowns. In the Saints' offense, Bush translates to a 30-40% share of the RB play plus a third wide receiver. The sum is a pretty productive RB2.
- Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers - I've heard a lot of talk about the Panthers' running backs and how one will take carries away from the other. But people forget that neither back really got going until they both did. There's little doubt in my mind that both will be productive this season. The only person likely to suffer is Muhsin Muhammad.
- Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills - Lynch is suspended for the first four games of this season for a hit-and-run he perpetrated last year and a gun charge in February. He isn't a stud, and doesn't appear to have that makeup in him. But adding Terrell Owens to an offense does tend to open up the running game, so Lynch could be lining up for the best 12 games of his career.
- Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders - You think I like this? I hate recommending any Raiders player at any point. But the reality is that McFadden is four healthy months from being the next big thing. If he can get consistent carries and stay off the shelf, I absolutely believe that he can become a legitimate starting running back.
- Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers - There's no doubt that the Steelers will be looking to get Rashard Mendenhall involved in the offense, probably to a fairly large extent. But Parker's the man now, and he's shown what he can do with sufficient opportunity.
- Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Ward was phenomenal working alongside (and occasionally in place of) Brandon Jacobs. While Tampa still likes Carnell Williams, they didn't bring Ward in to let him ride the pine. He'll get his shots, and should be solid.
- LenDale White, Tennessee Titans - I am not at all crazy about White. He managed a couple of great games, but also laid several eggs (4 games with under 15 total yards). Still, he's got a big body that he's able to plant in the end zone with some consistency, so he's got value.
- Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos - Mike Shanahan is out of town, which means that this year is the best chance for a single productive running back out of Denver since Terrell Davis. Moreno probably has the best chance at being that guy, but he's no sure thing. The upside is there, though, which makes him worthwhile as an early backup RB.
- Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers - Parker's days were numbered the moment the Steelers drafted Rashard Mendenhall in 2008. Fast Willie had a few good games, but even after Mendenhall went out for the season, Parker didn't seem to have the same pep in his step. He's a candidate to bounce back, but he's also a candidate to vanish altogether.
- Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals - "Beanie" Wells had a nice career at Ohio State, and the Cardinals acquired him as their replacement for Edgerrin James. He'll split time with Tim Hightower, who may steal goal line carries. It's one of those situations that pretty much demand that you draft both guys, and I hate those situations.
- Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns - Lewis notched his seventh career 1,000 yard season, but scored only four touchdowns. Part of that can be attributed to the Browns' anemic passing game, but there aren't many reasons to think it'll be any better this year. If you draft Lewis, you're sort of investing in Brady Quinn turning around the passing attack, as well.
- Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals - By the end of the season, Benson was looking more and more like a normal running back. He averaged 100 yards a game in those games in which he received 20 or more carries, which suggest he could be solid. There's no one of considerable quality behind him, so he'll be given the chance to succeed.
- Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks - Jones is the starter in Seattle, but that's really all there is to be excited about with him. He averaged just 46 yards per game last year, and this year T.J. Duckett figures to again vulture goal-line carries. Houshmandzadeh's impact on this offense won't be that profound.
- Darren Sproles, San Diego Chargers - As I said, no way the Chargers are paying a return guy $7 million this year. Sproles is going to get some legitimate playing time, and if something happens to LT, Sproles immediately becomes a top 20 running back, at least. A vital handcuff for Tomlinson owners.
- Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens - I'm putting these guys together because you simply cannot draft them seperately. That means that these guys really only make sense if you've got a wrap-around pick in a snake draft. Otherwise, you're making a foolish move, as it's a true 40/40 chance on who starts (with Ray Rice accounting for the other 20 percent).
- Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts - Brown was a first-round pick for the Colts, so you know they like him. There's a chance he ends up in a full timeshare with Addai, which means Brown isn't too bad as a bye week replacement. And of course, if Addai goes down, Brown is the inevitable beneficiary. Another important handcuff.
- Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers - Mendenhall just seems like a Steelers running back. Strong, hard-nosed, and after losing the year due to injury against Baltimore, he's got sufficient disdain for the Ravens. Parker should start the season as the #1, but I get the feeling that any slip-up and the Steelers will go with Mendenhall.
- Tim Hightower, Arizona Cardinals - While he's not likely to get many yards, he's a threat for a touchdown every week. He also had 34 catches last year, and being a productive receiver will get you in the game when you're a Cardinal. Don't get too attached, though. Wells is the future in Arizona.
- Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins - Williams has made Ronnie Brown owners crazy over the past couple of years, with retirements and returns. He's not young, and it's obvious that Brown is more talented, but Williams could steal just enough carries to be a nuisance. That's also the number of carries to make him worth stashing on your bench.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
2009 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet - WR
Other cheat sheets:
QB | WR | RB | TE
QB | WR | RB | TE
- Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals - We all knew he was good, but last season he took everything to another level. He was particularly good down the stretch (in what would be the fantasy playoffs), when he had at least 100 yards or a touchdown in each of his last seven games. Of course, he did that in all but three games all season. Only a select few wideouts get you running back numbers; they are the elite, and Fitzgerald is their king.
- Randy Moss, New England Patriots - Moss had a ho hum 2008 with 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns. With Tom Brady back from injury, Moss should be back up to his old tricks. I wouldn't look for another record-breaking season, but 15 TDs seems like a floor.
- Andre Johnson, Houston Texans - Johnson was nearly as productive as Fitzgerald last year, except that Fitz found the end zone four more times. But Johnson is a reception machine, which means that he rarely has an off game. Moss and Johnson are close enough that you can pick between them, based on whether you want reliability or the potential for a 3 touchdown game.
- Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals - All of the hullabaloo around Fitzgerald overshadowed Boldin's production, which was outstanding. He had a better season than Randy Moss, and played in only 12 games. He may deserve an "injury-prone" label, as he's missed time in four of his six seasons in the NFL, but there's no question he's a stud WR. Just keep your fingers crossed he doesn't stub a toe.
- Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions - You could justify putting Calvin Johnson as high as Andre Johnson, based on talent. The only reason I've got Calvin down here is that he'll be receiving throws from Daunte Culpepper again, which doesn't inspire confidence. But Calvin's talent is transcendent, and he'll be solid regardless.
- Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons - White took zero time to get in sync with rookie QB Matt Ryan, and turned in his best season yet. I'm confident that the addition of Tony Gonzalez will only help White, and the Falcons (the Falcons?) could have one of the best offenses in the NFL.
- Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers - Jennings and Aaron Rodgers were a match made in heaven from the start, and fantasy owners have felt the love. Who knew that Green Bay, WI would be home to one of football's great passing attacks? Jennings is something of a home run threat, so you may have to deal with some low production weeks, but the upside is worth the occasional 30-yard game.
- Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers - Smith is one of the hardest guys to judge from year to year. Coming off of two solid but unspectacular seasons, Smith recaptured his gamebreaker ability, finishing second in the NFC in receiving yards in just 14 games. But he's constantly missing time, and he's got only one 100-catch season in his career. He's a very good receiver; just make sure you don't draft him as if he were a great receiver.
- Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos - Who knows where Marshall will be when the season opens up. Most likely he'll still be in Denver, but a change of scenery might be more comforting to fantasy owners. I think he'll be equally productive regardless,and I think that production will be delightful.
- Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts - This will be Wayne's first season ever without Marvin Harrison on the opposite side. Worth mentioning is that last year, which was Harrison's least productive in a decade, was also a less productive season for Wayne. The hope is that with Joseph Addai back from injury and Anthony Gonzalez getting comfortable as a starter, Wayne will get back to his 2007 ways, but don't overpay.
- Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints - The one thing you can say about Colston is that he's going to get chances. The Saints throw the ball as much as any team, and Drew Brees is a fantastic quarterback to have throwing to your receiver. Colston is the best receiver in New Orleans, and while injuries limited his production, they also showed that there are other threats on the team. Lance Moore's development should keep defenses honest, and allow Colston to return to being one of the better wideouts in the league.
- Wes Welker, New England Patriots - Perhaps the greatest beneficiary of the new Patriots' offense, Welker has had back-to-back 110+ catch seasons. Brady's return should put Welker back in the end zone a few more times.
- Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs - Bowe is entering the legendary "third season for a wide receiver," and will likely be drafted higher in many leagues because of it. He's certainly talented, and his quarterback this year (Matt Cassel) should be at least as good as last year's (Tyler Thigpen). But the loss of Tony Gonzalez is big, and I'm wary of saying Bowe is a stand-alone top-tier WR.
- Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills - At some point, Owens will lose a step and become just a big wide receiver without much fantasy potential. Despite last year's drop off in production, I don't think we're there yet. Owens is still an impressive physical specimen, and I imagine he'll be looking to disprove his detractors this season. A motivated T.O. is a sight to see.
- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks - Everything was a little worse last year in Cincinnati, but I think you can attribute most of that to Carson Palmer's absence. Housh won't have Chad Johnson (or Chad Ochocinco) opposite him in Seattle, but he should still be able to get close to 100 catches as well as solid yardage and TD numbers.
- Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns - Many, many people became disillusioned with Braylon Edwards last season, which is exactly why he needs to be on your radar this season. His true skills probably lie somewhere in between his explosive 2007 and his implosive 2008. I'd be surprised if he didn't get double-digit touchdowns this season.
- Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers - Despite Santonio Holmes' emergence as a legitimate receiving threat, Ward remained Ben Roethlisberger's favorite target. He may be getting on in years, but I'm not betting against Ward. Like, ever.
- Santana Moss, Washington Redskins - Moss always seems to make his hay in a couple of first-half games, then peter off towards the end of the season. I say draft him on his full-season numbers, but if his value goes up again early on (and it will), trade him.
- Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Bryant is the poster boy for the phrase, "Any given Sunday." He's got a career of ups and downs that always hinted at talent, but until last season never materialized. Do we buy into one season of production or a career of disappointment? I'm avoiding Bryant unless the draft value is considerable.
- Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys - Williams became the #1 wide receiver in Dallas when Owens left, but he's still behind Jason Witten when it comes to Romo's favorite receivers. He's got a career of explosive play, injuries, and inconsistency. He'll be in the best opportunity of his career this season, which is why I've got him ranked fairly high, but he's still a risky pick.
- Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers - It's taken a while, but the Northern Colorado product has finally become a legitimate starting wide receiver. He was particularly good in the crunch last season, which could be a sign of things to come. Or it could just be the nature of football.
- Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals - It was only a year ago that Chad Johnson (as he was then named) was coming off of his 5th straight 1200+ yard, 7+ TD season. Carson Palmer's absence last year was, I believe, the reason for Johnson's weak performance. Ryan Fitzpatrick had trouble hitting him in stride, as evidenced by a drop of more than 50% off of Johnson's career yards-after-catch average. I think he'll bounce back, contingent upon Palmer's health.
- Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos - Royal lost his Pro Bowl quarterback, his opposite receiver wants a trade, and defenses have a full year of film on him. All the logic says to be wary of Royal, but I can't shake the positive vibes I got from watching him play last year. I say take him.
- Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills - Normally I wouldn't see adding a new #1 receiver as a reason to think more of a receiver, but Evans has always seemed best suited to a Robin role. He's a home run threat, so with defenses having to worry about T.O., I see a lot of opportunities to get downfield and open. His upside is Braylon Edwards from two years ago.
- Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers - Holmes got a lot of publicity for his fantastic Super Bowl catch, but other than that, his third year in the NFL was fairly pedestrian. I still think he's got the ability to get to another level, hence the ranking, but make sure you don't let his highlight reel affect your judgment.
- Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints - He may not be supremely talented, but he's in one of the best spots in football for a receiver. A thousand yards and ten touchdowns is a solid bet.
- Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis Colts - Another opportunity guy; the Colts will pass, and Gonzo will start, so voila! Statistics.
- DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles haven't ever really had much in the way of receivers, so it didn't come as much of a surprise that Jackson immediately became their best fantasy wideout. No reason to not expect some improvement.
- Devin Hester, Chicago Bears - Jay Cutler had a lot of success working with Eddie Royal, who's got a similar skillset to Hester. I fully expect Hester to be considerably better with Cutler in town.
- Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams - With Torry Holt moving on, Avery becomes the best receiver on the Rams. Not encouraging for Rams fans, but it makes him worth a draft pick for us fantasy owners.
- Ted Ginn Jr., Miami Dolphins - While the Dolphins' offense will likely be conservative again, there will be plenty of opportunities for him to shine. Even withGreg Camarillo and Davone Bess competing for looks, I believe Ginn will do far more with his chances.
- Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings - There's really no good bet on who'll be quarterbacking this team, but it's safe to say Berrian will be going deep. The guy is a twig, but he can make big plays.
- Kevin Walter, Houston Texans - He really just seems like a 900 yard, 5 TD guy. He'll be solid, but nothing to get excited about.
- Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers - Speaking of nothing to get excited about, Driver is well into his NFL career. He's reliable and not at all flashy, but to fill out your starting roster, reliable is a good thing.
- Laveranues Coles, Cincinnati Bengals - I'm expecting a little bit of a bounce back for Coles in his new digs. Nothing fancy, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he got back to 1000+ yards.
- Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets - With the departure of Coles, Cotchery becomes the Jets' most proven receiver. The QB situation is far from desirable, but Cotchery should still be productive.
- Steve Breaston, Arizona Cardinals - Breaston is a real wild card, because he oscillated between great and missing without any apparent rhyme or reason. If Boldin gets dealt, Breaston becomes much more valuable, but if not, I'd be wary of starting him unless you have to.
- Domenik Hixon, New York Giants - With Plaxico Burress facing likely jail time, and seemingly not welcome back in New York, someone else will have to step up. Hixon feels like the most likely candidate, but Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss, and others all figure to get their shots.
- Torry Holt, Jacksonville Jaguars - Holt used to be one of the elite wide receivers in football, but now he's just a default #1 on a team with a crummy passing game. He'll probably be no better than he was last year (800 yards, 3 TDs), but no worse either.
- Michael Jenkins, Atlanta Falcons - I'm counting on improvement throughout the Falcons' passing game, but Jenkins figures to benefit the least from the arrival of Tony Gonzalez. His touchdowns will probably stay low, but his yards could get a bump.
- Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers - I've never had much faith in rookie wide receivers, but someone will have to catch passes for the 49ers. Crabtree has as good a chance as any to be their biggest producer.
- Steve Smith, New York Giants - He and Domenik Hixon figure to be the most likely starting two for the Giants this season. They'll still be a run-first team, but with perhaps the league's best offensive line, there'll be opportunities for receivers to make plays.
- Isaac Bruce, San Francisco 49ers - Bruce quietly had a fairly productive season in 2008. While Michael Crabtree will steal some looks, and San Francisco has a very questionable quarterback situation, Bruce will probably fall backwards into 750 yards and a few touchdowns, which is fine for your fourth receiver.
- Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings - He won't be able to help being a better producer than the Vikings' last highly touted WR draft pick, that bum Troy Williamson. He also doesn't have much competition for looks in the passing game, so the opportunity for a surprise rookie explosion is there...if anyone can get him the ball.
- Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans - Washington goes from #3 receiver in Pittsburgh to #1 receiver in Tennessee. His situation got a lot worse, but there's an opportunity for success here. He's worth a flier on your bench.
- Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders - The Raiders boasted one of the weakest passing attacks of the decade last season, and they did nothing to inspire much hope for improvement. But it's obvious that Heyward-Bey will get opportunities, and he does have talent. He's the best option on Oakland, which puts him squarely at #46 overall.
- Greg Camarillo, Miami Dolphins - Either Camarillo or Davone Bess will get the starting gig alongside Ted Ginn; my guess is Camarillo. He's not much of a candidate for an explosion, but he should be solid.
- Justin Gage, Tennessee Titans - Gage was one of my favorite receivers to target in Madden 2001. It's taken him a while to get going, but he seems to have found a nice little niche in Tennessee. He won't be great, but he just might be good for 800 yards and 5-7 TDs.
- Deion Branch, Seattle Seahawks - Nate Burleson might be more talented than Branch, but Burleson seems too similar to Houshmandzadeh for them to be on the field together all that often. My guess is Branch will be the better producer.
- Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles - There's usually a rookie wide receiver who plays really well, and it's not always the first receiver taken (Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin). Maclin comes into a good situation with a talented QB and unimpressive WRs in front of him. Why not Maclin?
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