Middle Earth Draft Review: 2011

Joey wrote up draft grades last year and I thought it was pretty neat to see another person's opinion on the draft. I picked a best and worse pick and also assigned a grade. I think overall I was pretty hard with grades. No one received an A or A+. I thought to receive a grade that high I had to be blown away by value with ever pick. Also if you have one arm or beat me out for first I probably knocked you down a few. Get over it.

Those Guys:

• Best Pick - Carlos Marmol (1.1). As the attempted trade right as keeper lists demonstrates, Marmol is a keeper talent. His k/9 is one of the highest baseball has ever seen.

• Worse Pick - Aubrey Huff (7.1). I understand the big post season leading into a big year idea, however with OF, 1B, and Util full and only 3 SP on the roster at this point I think getting an SP might have been a better pick.

• Grade: B- : I like the early picks of Marmol, Rivera, and Prado. However after the Ervin Santana pick I was not a huge huge fan.

Vandelay Industries

• Best pick - Carlos Santana (1.3). In my mind, with Wainwright out for the season, Vandelay needed to go young and upside. That is what this pick did. He gives a chance for a lot of production out of a weak position and a keeper for years to come.

• Worse Pick - Chris Coghlan (12.2) I know Drew grew up playing Dabl with Chris so maybe thats why he picked him. A pretty impressive rookie campaign was followed up by a so-so 2nd year. He should improve on his numbers but without a ton of speed or power there is limited upside.

• Grade C+ : You can look at Drew's draft and not be impressed by the talent but, many high picks were traded to beef up his keepers. While the draft suffered the additions of Weeks, Ubaldo, Miggy, and Greinke set him up for years to come.

Riders of Rohan

• Best Pick - Brett Myers (6.2) Brett Myers has always had the talent to be a very reliable fantasy starter. Will he get a lot of wins... No, but solid K and ERA numbers are likely.

• Worse Pick - Rafeal Furcal (3.3) Maybe people would argue with SS being so swallow this pick needed to be made. I'm someone who never pays for position. Furcal has played over 100 games once in last three years. Rather have a closer and go with Scutaro as starter.

• B- : Its not that I hate any of the picks Joe made. I just didn't love any of them either. Maybe they are just not my kind of players but with 2nd pick I was left wanting more.

Dunedain Rangers

• Best Pick - Madison Bumgarner (5.4). I think Hughes over Bumgarner may be the choice I am least happy with in my draft. With a weak hitting division and good stuff I see Bumgarner being slightly better across the board other than wins.

• Worse Pick -Angel Pagan (6.4). Pagan had good numbers last year with close to 40 steals. However his 2nd half was weak with .264 avg and .304 OBP. I think his real production falls closer to his 2nd half.

• Grade A- : I liked this draft a lot. Garrett was able to identify and acquire a lot of talent. Bumgarner, Gio, Tabalta, Jones, and Jennings are all guys with upside. Add in solid value picks of Cuddyer, Edwin Jackson, Kelly Johnson, and you have a very good draft.

Howards Hero's

• Best Pick - Mike Napoli (4.5) During the draft I did not care for this pick at all. However looking at his situation I think he will get more AB in Texas. He also kills the ball in Texas with a HR/AB of 6.6. 30HR upside at C... yea that sounds like a good pick.

• Worse Pick - Ian Desmond (3.9) This goes back to the problem I had with the Furcal pick. However at least Joey started a run (three ss taken round 3) Nick finished it. I hate finishing runs. There was not be another SS taken for 4 rounds.

• Grade B : I wasn't blown away by the Stauffer or Desmond selections (probably NL MVP candidates after saying that) but other than that Nick was able to get good young starting pitchers and a lot of saves. Also Bedard.... come on this is his year. Solid all around draft.

Dam Knight

• Best Pick- Bryce Harper (13.6). Will he play? Maybe not. But with a young team and a 2nd to last round pick whats the risk? All upside and could lead to a steal in years to come.

• Worse Pick- Brian Fuentes (11.6). Obviously the injury news with Bailey has changed the perception of this pick however looking at this at the time of the pick I think a good middle reliever in the 11th round seemed like a random pick

• Grade C+ : I liked several picks a lot: Harper, Peavy, and Scott. However the rest of the draft had more stable guys than upside. With a young rebuilding team I would like to see more risks. Harper was a start but I wanted a little more.

Stewies SexyParties

• Best Pick - Carlos Lee (10.7). I've heard everything you have. He doesn't work out, terrible commitment etc. However for a guy to hit below .300 for the first time in five years and it to be 60 pts below seems like an outlier. Plus with such a late pick even if he's 25 90 again its solid value.

• Worse Pick - Rafael Soriano (7.7). I have come around to the whole solid relief innings over the past few years. And I do believe that Soriano will give you that. However with closers (Nunez, Gregg) and SP (Zimmerman, Chacin, Floyd) it seemed a little early for him.

• Grade A- : I hate you Mike Plundo... but God Dammit do I respect you. Solid picks from start to finish, really only Soriano pick out of place. I like Lee, Garza and Granderson among others.

Akron Pronks

• Best Pick - Brett Anderson (3.8). Anderson was very good when he was healthy last year. I worry a little because 30% of his starts were vs Sea but even taking that into account his numbers were good. Going into keeper lists I had him just outside my top 8. Mandi got him after 44 other players were selected. Injury will decide how this pick is viewed but at the moment I like it.

• Worse Pick- Carlos Pena (7.8) "Am I really this desperate for power"... "Akron Pronks select Carlos Pena 1B CHC." What a fateful 30 seconds. I hate low avg guys. I feel like avg is the toughest thing to project and because of that the hardest to pick up during season. I think the .197 avg would have scared people away for several rounds. As principal Skinner says, "Prove me wrong kids... Prove me wrong"

• Grade B : I liked a lot of what Mandi did. I think Broxton has a small place in his heart and was picked a little early but he backed it up with Kuo later. In my opinion Pena is a brain fart on an otherwise very successful draft.

Mercer Autowreckers

• Best Pick - Jhoulys Chacin (7.9). With any Colorado pitcher there is a ceiling. However with a 130+ ip and a good ERA and K rate it looks like he might be the real deal. I think he will take a step back overall. Expect flashes of 7 IP 9 K games with the occasional clunker. Still a solid value at round 7.

• Worse Pick - David Aardsma (8.9). When making this pick I think Chip thought he was healthy.... which is not the case. If he comes back in May it won't be a bad pick but with injury there is always a cause for concern.

• Grade C+ : Overall good. However I look over Chip's draft and only see one maybe two guys that have keeper upside. Added stable talent to a very talented keeper list.

Feisty Mosquitoes

• Best Pick - Chris Young (12.10) Chris Young was very good in his short season (including 2 away from Petco) with SD last year. Is there a chance he breaks down after 50-75 IP? Yes. But at round 12 to get a chance at a solid starter with a team lacking in that department I think it was a very good pick.

• Worse Pick - Howie Kendrick (11.10) In the eleventh round you really can't be too hard on any pick. However with the makeup of the mosquitoes I found it odd to pick Kendrick in this spot. Phillips is young and healthy and 1B was open. I think Berkman or Laroche would have been better options to start at 1B. (My first pick here was Chapman.... but who am I to knock someone taking a young guy with high upside. :) )

• Grade B- : I like the talent but Mosquitoes are banking on finding a lot SP on waiver wire. I'm not in love with Garcia and almost every other pitcher is coming over a serious injury or has injury concerns. However without risk there is no reward.

The Usual Suspects

• Best Pick - Michael Pineda \ John Lackey (13.11 14.11) I like both these picks for difference reasons. I wanted get some solid depth to the back of my rotation.

1. Pineda was one of the top prospect pitchers on my board. He tore through AA last year and has dynamic stuff. There is a question of getting on the roster but with a solid spring I think he might get a chance.
2. In Lackey I saw a perfect bounce back pick. He has always been a solid pitcher that gets wins. If I avoid starts bad matchups (vs NYY etc) I think I can get a good amount out of this last round pick.

• Worse Pick- Miguel Montero (7.11). I did something I always hate to do... I paid for position. Don't get me wrong I think a healthy Montero could hit 18 and 70 over a season but I don't know that I needed to pay a 7th round pick for it. Next catcher taken was Jesus Montero... by me. Did I get the last catcher on a tier or just over pay?

• Grade B+ : Probably closer to a B- with objective critic but I like my guys... that's why I picked them. I would have done a few things differently but I like my depth a SP and flexibility to have 50+ SB guy backing up OF. Hill is a risk but with such a late pick not a lot to pay if it works out.

Cleveland Enforcers

• Best Pick - Lance Berkman (12.12) St. Louis seems like a perfect place for Berkman to rebound. Lance struggled last year between Hou and NY. Was that age and injury catching up with him? Maybe but with such a late pick I like the upside.

• Worse Pick - Geovany Soto (4.12) Joey later told me that this was a mistake pick by Mike. Just like with Chip he would probably be first to say its not his favorite.

• Grade B : Enforcers went much younger than I thought he needed to. Carrying two catchers and possibly 2 minor leaguers could put a strain on the roster. Keeper SP will need a repeat of last year or could be an area of need.

I didn't see any team really make bonehead picks or anyone pull away from the league. The difference between a C+ and a B is probably only my personal feeling on players. Without a title to my name what the hell do I know. Every year I think the draft its harder and harder to get an advantage.

Any comments on draft? Did it occur too early or late? Miss pre-draft?

Good Luck in the upcoming season.

2011 Middle Earth Fantasy Baseball League - Keeper Analysis

I did this last year, and it was fun, and a good exercise for me, so I'm doing it again. I'll be assigning point values to each team's eight keepers. The max value for any one player is 10, the minimum is 0, so the maximum total keeper score is 80. We'll go in draft order.

One note: there was a single trade between the submission of keeper lists and the draft. After some debate, I've decided to rate the keeper lists AFTER the trade. That is, these are the keeper lists as they stood going into the draft.

Here we go.

Those Guys

• Adrian Gonzalez, 1B - 10 points
  As I suggested last year, leaving San Diego was going to be a boon for him. Now that he's gone (and into one of the best lineups in baseball), I expect big things.
• Alex Rodriguez, 3B - 8 points
  He's getting a little older, and his production has slipped a bit, but he's still one of the most consistently productive players in fantasy.
• Mike Stanton, OF - 5 points
  I don't love him this year, but he looks to have Adam Dunn upside, and in a keeper league, you bet a lot on upside.
• Shane Victorino, OF - 5 points
  He's a speed guy who pitches in on run production and a little bit on power. And his lineup is stacked.
• Bobby Abreu, OF - 4 points
  Even a slight bounce back on batting average would make Abreu a big time asset this year. But, long term, it's unlikely he produces enough for long enough to be justified.
• Josh Johnson, SP - 7 points
  He had a career year last year, but you've got to be a little cautious with a guy who's missed as much time as Johnson. Still, the ability is there.
• Jonathan Sanchez, SP - 4 points
  I drafted Sanchez, so obviously I'm a fan. He also had a career year, but the strikeouts have always been great. No reason to think he can't build on last year and be solid again.
  
• Daniel Hudson, SP - 4 points
  He was utterly dominant after being traded to the Diamondbacks. He's got a very limited track record, but there are reasons to be excited about this youngster.
  

Riders of Rohan

• Prince Fielder, 1B - 7 points
  The power is there, and it will be there, but he's kind of tough to project outside of that. And he's also kind of tough to project within that. As in, will he hit 35, or will he hit 48?
• Ian Kinsler, 2B - 6 points
  So much potential, and some of it realized, but the constant injuries are beginning to wear on fantasy owners. Me, mostly.
• Evan Longoria, 3B - 10 points
  He's an across-the-board producer at a non-outfield position; that makes him pretty damn good.
• Matt Kemp, OF - 8 points
  The attitude concerns are there, but so it a plethora of talent. Power, speed, average, the whole package could be in there, somewhere.
  
• Jose Bautista, 3B/OF - 5 points
  Will he be able to repeat his power explosion from 2010? Probably not. But golly, he was good last year.
• Alex Rios, OF - 6 points
  Ozzie Guillen's infatuation with the stolen base should continue to prove useful for Rios owners.
• Jon Lester, SP - 8 points
  Great strikeouts, great wins, good averages.
• Clayton Kershaw, SP - 7 points
  Maybe even better than Lester, but he still has trouble getting decisions. Eventually, though, I'd expect him to figure it out.

Vandelay Industries

• Miguel Cabrera, 1B - 10 points
  Alcohol questions aside, Cabrera is legitimately the best hitter in the American League.
• Rickie Weeks, 2B - 6 points
  Weeks is impossible to value in all circumstances. Six points just seemed like the most reasonable "I don't know" amount
• Elvis Andrus, SS - 4 points
  If shortstop wasn't so weak, Andrus would rate lower. He's really a two-category producer at this point: runs and steals.
• Ichiro Suzuki, OF - 4 points
  Take Andrus, add in batting average, but remove SS eligibility, and you've got Ichiro. Something tells me he'll get some more RBIs this year, though.
• Zack Greinke, SP - 6 points
  He's in a situation considerably better than he was in Kansas City, and the talent is all there for a rebound...or a meltdown. Should be fun to watch either way.
• Ubaldo Jimenez, SP - 7 points
  Ridiculous first half, solid second half. Similar overall numbers are pretty reasonable, though.
• Yovani Gallardo, SP - 5 points
  Awesome strikeout numbers, but he lets an awful lot of guys get on base. Something's going to give eventually, one way or the other.
• Adam Wainwright, SP - 1 point
  I'm less negative on this keep than other people, but it's definitely a tough one. He's a superstar pitcher, but when you KNOW he's not playing this year...though call.

Dunedain Rangers

• Buster Posey, C/1B - 6 points
  I like Posey. But he's getting drafted in the 3rd round based on two-thirds of a season of solid production. I want to see more before I invest that kind of pick.
• Adam Dunn, 1B - 4 points
  Defense doesn't count, so that's good. And he's one of the safest picks in the game.
• Adrian Beltre, 3B - 4 points
  He hit .334 in 2004, then hit .255, .268, .276, .266, and .265 before hitting .321 last year. I'm not paying for a .300 average, and without that, he's just a decent third baseman.
  
• Hunter Pence, OF - 5 points
  He seems to get undervalued, but getting 25 HR and 14 SB with a .282 average in back to back seasons seems pretty decent to me.
• Jay Bruce, OF - 4 points
  He dramatically improved his batting average, but his power rate slipped. If he can ever put it all together, he'll be great, but I'm not holding my breath.
• Dan Haren, SP - 6 points
  He had trouble early last season, but bounced back in a big way after being traded to the Angels. I'd count on 3.00, 1.15, 175 Ks and 15 wins.
• Jered Weaver, SP - 7 points
  He's becoming less and less hittable each year. I like that kind of trend.
• Neftali Feliz, SP/RP - 4 points
  I like Feliz at closer because he's a known commodity there, but if he can translate his success to starting pitching, his value goes up.
  

Howard's Heroes (or whatever his name is this week)

• Ryan Howard, 1B - 8 points
  He's basically the same as Prince Fielder, except you trust him a little more because of his crazy good lineup
• Mark Teixeira, 1B - 8 points
  I'm a believer in Teixeira. I know he's been up and down in New York, but I just can't see him not succeeding.
• Dan Uggla, 2B - 8 points
  I tried to tell you all, Uggla's the man. A slide down to about .265 wouldn't shock me, but 30 HR and 90 runs and RBIs at second base is effin' good.
• Mark Reynolds, 3B - 3 points
  I don't know, maybe he'll be good? He's the biggest question mark on a team full of them.
• Jacoby Ellsbury, OF - 6 points
  If he can stay healthy, I'd expect 60 steals and 100 runs, with a .300-ish average.
• Matt Cain, SP - 5 points
  He's evolved into a nice little pitcher. And, he won't have to match up against other aces, which is always nice.
• Wandy Rodriguez, SP - 3 points
  Wandy's a tough guy to figure out. But at this point, I see him as just a useful pitcher...not so much a keeper.
• (no 8th keeper) - 2 points
  Getting the supplemental pick isn't worthless.
  

Columbus DamKnights

• Joe Mauer, C - 7 points
  He may have regressed on the power numbers from 2009, but a great batting average and good run production are givens with Mauer.
• Justin Morneau, 1B - 8 points
  We're all pulling for Morneau to get past his concussion and get back to concussing baseballs. What? Too soon?
• Robinson Cano, 2B - 9 points
  Cano's a very nice player, and appears to be a legitimate .315 hitter. I'm just not ready to push him into that tenth point just yet.
• Corey Hart, OF - 4 points
  There was a point when Hart was all the rage as a power/speed guy. But last year, he mostly hit home runs...mostly.
• Grady Sizemore, OF - 3 points
  What can you say about Sizemore? We know he's got speed and power. We don't know if he's healthy, or if he'll ever hit .280 again.
• Ricky Nolasco, SP - 4 points
  Might be this year's Jonathan Sanchez?
• Jeremy Hellickson, SP - 4 points
  Uber pitching prospect who flashed his stuff last year. I'm in.
• Joe Nathan, RP - 2 points
  His spring has been encouraging so far, but coming back from surgery is always risky.

Stewies SexyParties

• Chase Utley, 2B - 8 points
  Healthy, Utley is worth 10 points easy, but it seems like this knee injury has legs.
• Pedro Alvarez, 3B - 5 points
  He's supposed to be the real deal, and he's already shown major league pop. He doesn't have to improve much to be keeper-worthy again next year.
• Hanley Ramirez, SS - 10 points
  The best.
• Ryan Braun, OF - 10 points
  Just a great producer. His power numbers were down last year, but I see that as fluky, not cause for concern.
• Andrew McCutchen, OF - 8 points
  Don't undervalue McCutchen. He's potentially a plus in every category except RBIs, and he's still only 24.
• Colby Rasmus, OF - 5 points
  Two full seasons, but he's still just a .263 career hitter, and hasn't shown much speed. Might be more similar to Jay Bruce than we anticipated.
• Cliff Lee, SP - 8 points
  He's been all around the world in the past few years, but he's posted great numbers everywhere. Now that he's happy and settled, I expect him to really hit stride.
• Roy Oswalt, SP - 7 points
  Uh oh. You know what we did? We forgot how good Oswalt can be.

Akron Pronks

• Victor Martinez, C/1B - 8 points
  He should be going ahead of Posey in every draft. You know why? Because Posey's upside is Martinez.
• Kevin Youkilis, 1B - 7 points
  He should pick up 3B eligibility early this season, and his contributions in runs, RBIs, and batting average should only go up with the additions to the Red Sox lineup.
• Kendrys Morales, 1B - 5 points
  Yahoo says it's Kendrys now. Anyways, he's already got one great season and a tragic injury on his resume. All he needs now is a bounce back and he'll have a movie made about him.
  
• Brian Roberts, 2B - 4 points
  Back injuries are always cause for concern, but if he's able to straighten things out, he's a great option at a thin position.
• Shin-Soo Choo, OF - 7 points
  You can only go .300-80-20-80-20 so many times before people start betting on it. Two, actually. The number is two.
• Jayson Werth, OF - 6 points
  I don't expect Werth to hit .296 again (he's a career .272 hitter), but the rest of last year's numbers seem in line, even in a weaker Nationals lineup.
• Drew Stubbs, OF - 5 points
  Way too many strikeouts, but he's still young. Another guy I should have never dropped.
• Tim Lincecum, SP - 9 points
  Other than an 0-5, 7.82/1.82 August, Lincecum was tremendous again last season. I've still got him rated as a top 5 pitcher.

Mercer AutoWreckers

• Brian McCann, C - 5 points
  It's tough to get consistent play out of a catcher, and McCann is one of the most reliable guys out there. The Wreckers did pay a ton for him, though.
• Joey Votto, 1B - 10 points
  He's a slightly leaner Miguel Cabrera.
• Dustin Pedroia, 2B - 6 points
  Injuries ended his season last year, but he appears fully healthy and ready to do his part in the stacked Boston offense.
• Derek Jeter, SS - 6 points
  Even a repeat of last year's "down" performance (.270-111-10-67-18) would be very solid, considering this year's crop of shortstops.
• Andre Ethier, OF - 4 points
  We're all still waiting for Ethier to put it all together. Maybe Don Mattingly is the guy to help him do it?
• Roy Halladay, SP - 10 points
  No starting pitcher is better.
• Felix Hernandez, SP - 10 points
  But Felix comes close.
• Heath Bell, RP - 4 points
  He may still just be a closer, but another great year adds "proven" to his list of characteristics.

Feisty Mosquitoes

• Brandon Phillips, 2B - 6 points
  He'll hit about .270 with about 20 homers and about 20 steals. At second base, that works.
  
• Ryan Zimmerman, 3B - 5 points
  I think Zimmerman's a fine player, but he might be one of the more overrated guys in fantasy baseball. He'll be solid, but unspectacular.
• Troy Tulowitzki, SS - 10 points
  It's tough to trust him to stay healthy, but even missing 40 games last year, Tulo was extremely good. Expect more good things.
• Carl Crawford, OF - 10 points
  You can't tell me that Crawford's value will go down in that lineup. You just can't.
• Matt Holliday, OF - 8 points
  This cat can hit. Oh, and batting next to Albert Pujols never hurt anybody's numbers.
• Justin Upton, OF - 7 points
  The guy is just 23 years old. If he can play 150+ games in 2011, he's basically a lock for 25-25.
• CC Sabathia, SP - 8 points
  Sort of like Adam Dunn, CC's reliability gets undervalued sometimes. He's had at least 17 wins and 197 strikeouts in each of the past four seasons.
• Stephen Strasburg, SP - 1 point
  Mostly the Mosquitoes get a point for guts. Strasburg is out until at least September.
  

The Usual Suspects

• Albert Pujols, 1B - 10 points
  Seriously, let's argue about this.
• David Wright, 3B - 9 points
  I'm willing to look at Wright's down 2009 as an anomaly as long as he is.
• Jimmy Rollins, SS - 5 points
  Tough to make a call on Rollins. His upside still puts him as a potential 25/40 player, but he's been way off of that recently.
• Nelson Cruz, OF - 5 points
  If you look at Cruz's numbers, you're going to be surprised. He might pull it all together this year and challenge for the MVP.
• Jason Heyward, OF - 6 points
  Heyward really seemed to settle in during the second half of 2010. All the physical tools are there to take the next step. Matt Kemp upside is what I see.
• Justin Verlander, SP - 7 points
  Back to back fantastic seasons means Verlander's legit...probably. Have to wonder what happened in 2008, though.
• Tommy Hanson, SP - 6 points
  Hanson's got all the makings of a star, and his August and September were just filthy. Of course, plenty of guys can be stars; let's see if he can come through.
• Mat Latos, SP - 6 points
  Latos was remarkable last season, a plus in all the starting pitching categories. I expect a bit of a letdown, but it's tough to be that good and not be mostly legit...heck, even Jeff D'Amico couldn't put up those kind of Ks.

Cleveland Enforcers

• Jose Reyes, SS - 8 points
  Health is a minor concern, the lineup is a minor concern, but the player is good. Very good.
• Carlos Gonzalez, OF - 9 points
  I've read a few articles that try to temper Gonzalez's insane 2010 season, but those kinds of numbers don't just happen. Not all of them at once.
• Josh Hamilton, OF - 8 points
  One of the harder high-end players to judge, Hamilton showed last year that he can be among the best. I choose to bank on his talent and competitiveness.
• B.J. Upton, OF - 4 points
  Upton is not a power hitter. He averaged 15.5 homers per season over the past four years (in an average of 143 games per season). He's fine for steals, anything else is gravy.
• Cole Hamels, SP - 6 points
  Nice rebound after a frustrating 2009. However, his win-loss record seems awfully unimpressive for a team averaging 94 wins over the last three years.
• David Price, SP - 7 points
  Listen to these home numbers for Price: 9-2, 107 Ks in 114.2 IP, 1.96 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. Who knew orange juice was so good for you?
• Francisco Liriano, SP - 4 points
  Liriano seems to be fully healthy and recovered from arm surgery that cost him the entire 2007 season, but he may never be the same again.
• Max Scherzer, SP - 4 points
  Because there weren't enough guys I bailed on that ended up being good. Thanks Max.
  

Here are the standings in order of total points, along with the change from last year (and here's a link to last year's article, for your reference):

1. Stewies SexyParties - 61 points (+1 from last year)
2. Riders of Rohan - 57 points (-8)
   
3. Feisty Mosquitoes - 55 points (-7)
   
4. Mercer AutoWreckers - 55 points (+3)
   
5. The Usual Suspects - 54 points (+4)
   
6. Akron Pronks - 51 points (-3)
   
7. Cleveland Enforcers - 50 points (+1)
   
8. Those Guys - 47 points (+2)
   
9. Vandelay Industries - 43 points (-8)
   
10. Howard's Heroes - 43 points (-16)
    
11. Columbus DamKnights - 41 points (-7)
    
12. Dunedain Rangers - 40 points (+1)
    

Just from a cursory glance, it looks like I was harder on guys this year. Most teams went down, some a lot, including my own. That probably means that teams who went up at all this year are in fact dramatically improved, while teams that went down are probably not actually that much worse.

The Amtrack AutoTrain

I recently went on a trip to Disney World, and I used Amtrack's AutoTrain service to get there. The trip down was distinctly different from the trip back, so I'll talk about them separately.

From Lorton, Virginia to Sanford, Florida

On the way down, we got three seats in the coach car, one apiece for myself, my mom, and my youngest brother. The seats are distributed in rows of two, and no one sat in the fourth seat near us, so we had four seats between the three of us. The seats were fairly comfortable, except that I was wearing jeans, and eventually you don't want to be trying to lie down in jeans. But that's my own fault, not the fault of the train.

The train provides a dinner to each passenger, and dinner was pretty good. I got some kind of fish, cod I think, as did my brother. My mom got a chicken meal, and the fourth guy sitting at our table (a stranger) got a beef dinner. Overall it was tasty, certainly better than the kind of stuff I usually cook up. Apparently, the guy who sat with us was from New Jersey, and he knew a woman named Stacy, a friend of my mom's, before Stacy moved from New Jersey to Maryland. This of course prompted my mom to make "small world" references for hours, though the fact that we were on our way to Disney World probably helped that as well.

Sleeping was less awesome. I had a cold, and as I said, the jeans weren't great, so I had trouble getting comfortable. Altogether, I probably only got about 90-120 minutes of sleep. It's not a perfect setup, but I do think that I'd do better in a future trip, knowing about wearing the right pants/shorts, and trying to, you know, not be sick.

Arriving in Sanford, we waited about forty minutes for our car to be unloaded, then headed off to Disney World. It was only about another 40 minutes to get there, and we had a car to use the whole time. That advantage cannot be understated, as you save quite a bit of money being able to buy groceries at a grocery store, rather than at the convenience shops at Disney resorts.

The Return Trip

The trip back from Florida was very different. First, we were ending a trip to Disney World. So we were all kind of bummed about that.

From a more logistical standpoint, the trip back was considerably sparser than the trip down. I guess there were a lot of "snow birds" heading down to Florida in January, but not a lot of people heading back north. As such, the price of the trip was considerably cheaper. So, in an attempt to maximize our experience, my mom upgraded us from coach seats to one of the sleeper suites. These suites have two pull-down beds in each room (we got two rooms), as well as bathrooms and sinks in the room.

Theoretically, this all sounds great. But the bathrooms were far too narrow, and I think they'd be too narrow even for someone of average size. So I ended up using the community bathrooms a couple times, despite the fact that we had accommodations in our room. The beds were also just not that great. The lower bunk starts out as a couch, and honestly, I think it's more comfortable for sleeping in couch form than in bed form. But unfortunately, I didn't realize that until after the attendant had switched them into beds.

Dinner tasted good enough, but after being spoiled with fantastic food at Disney World for nearly a week, there was really no chance it was going to measure up. Also, I deduced that something I had didn't agree with me. My stomach felt funky most of the night, and I got really nauseous on the drive back to my house from the train station. Lack of sleep probably didn't help that, either.

Overall Thoughts

I would take the AutoTrain again, I think. You can have all sorts of ideas going into an experience like that, but you can't really know what it's going to be like until you do it. Now that I've done it, I do feel like I could prepare a lot better to be able to get through the trip in the best shape.

My thinking is this: assume you're not going to get any sleep. Depending on your accommodations, you might be able to, but you want to prepare for the possibility that you won't. This means that you'll want to sleep as late as you can on the day of your trip, and try to figure out something to do early in Florida when you get there. Early check-in would be a beautiful thing for riders.

But if you've got a good group, a group that can entertain each other for hours and hours, it just might be the best way to get down south. Especially if you're like me, and could do without plane trips.

Fantasy Baseball 2011 - First Round

Two years ago I did a mental exercise of sorts and drafted my own first and second rounds of a 12-team fantasy baseball league. I didn't do it last year, but I'm ready to have another go. Again, I only do the first couple rounds, because I don't want to give away any of my personal information about guys I might be targeting when my ultra-competitive keeper league drafts this Saturday. But the first two rounds are the kind of hardball decisions that can make or break a draft. So let's get down to it.

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins - I'll summarize my argument for taking Ramirez over Albert Pujols. Shortstop is miserable this year. Hanley is an across-the-board producer at the game's weakest non-catcher position.

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals - Pujols is the epitome of reliability. His .312 average last year was actually 19 points lower than his career average. The guy is a hitting machine, and you won't be unhappy with him, even if you take him first.

3. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - This is where your draft list gets a lot tougher. So I'll repeat: shortstop is miserable this year. Tulowitzki has had a couple of really nice seasons, and just a filthy September: .322, 30 R, 15 HR, 40 RBI. Even after only playing 18 games in June and July, his season was good enough to rate in the top 25 in Yahoo's ranking system. If he can stay healthy, it looks like he's the real deal, and his wide contributions at a thin position make him one of the more useful guys out there.

4. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds - Almost every list I saw coming into this season actually had Miguel Cabrera at #3, behind Pujols and Ramirez. The thing is, Votto has all the pedigree that Cabrera has, he puts up the same kind of numbers, but he's got the ability to contribute on the basepaths as well. Add in the question marks that we're hearing about Cabrera's drinking issues, which could cost him some playing time this season, and I think Votto is a decidedly better pick this season.

5. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays - Third base isn't quite shortstop, but it's still a fairly tough position to fill. And Longoria is another 5 category contributor who's valuable no matter where you play him. It's also worth mentioning that his 22 home runs last year were actually a career low. An uptick back to around 30 HR is completely reasonable. Partner that with a .285 average, 100 runs and RBI, and the potential for double-digit steals, and I think we're happy.

6. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers - Listen, on a basic, baseball-only level, Cabrera is better than everybody except for Pujols. He's a fantastic hitter with tremendous power, and he posts stats every year, without fail. But there are two small factors that pull Cabrera down from #3 to #6 in my book. First, the aforementioned alcohol issues. I'm not too concerned with it affecting his on-field performance (it doesn't seem to have ever had an impact in the past), but with the legal system being involved again, there's the chance of missing some time. Second, he's still a first basemen. I mean that in two regards: he's only 1B eligible, and he doesn't steal any bases.

7. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies - This is one spot where I tend to differ from general fantasy baseball opinions. Most people will have Robinson Cano as their #1 second baseman. But Utley is a completely proven commodity, who from 2005-2009 averaged the following stat line: .301, 111 R, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 15 SB. He was injured for part of last year, but came back and looked fine. He had 8 multi-hit games in September. I'll bet on Utley every time.

8. Carl Crawford, OF, Red Sox - A lot of people are going to tell you that Crawford's speed numbers will go down because he'll end up batting 2nd or 3rd in the Red Sox lineup. Those people are retarded. Crawford batted in the two-hole 408 times last year, and in the three-hole 192 times. Will he steal 50 bases? Probably not. But he's a very skilled hitter with pop and speed, and he's going into a lineup that might be the best in baseball. I'd expect a broad range of statistical contributions.

9. David Wright, 3B, Mets - Two years ago, David Wright was a "question mark." His power dipped to 10 HR and 72 RBI, his steals spiked to 27, but his batting average stayed high (.307). In 2010, Wright got back to his normal line, though he posted the lowest average of his career at .283. I trust the overall package, though. Wright will always find a way to be a fantasy force, even if his team is in constant disarray. Constant, extreme disarray.

10. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies - Alright, chances are he's not going to go 34-26 again. And it's almost a certainty that his batting average will drop off from the crazy .336 he hit last year. The thing is..."almost"..."chances are"...but what if? He certainly showed that he has the capacity to be a nightmare for opposing pitchers, and a ridiculous fantasy contributor (#1 ranked player in Yahoo last season). I wouldn't necessarily recommend Gonzalez as a pick for everybody here, but if you're pretty confident in your ability to draft down the board, his upside is tremendous.

11. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers - Ever since he came into the league, Braun has been a spectacularly steady producer for fantasy owners. Very good power, good speed, career .307 hitter, plenty of run production. Basically, Braun is exactly what you're looking for if Carlos Gonzalez looked too risky for you.

12. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox - This tier of first basemen is a little tough to analyze, until you actually start to consider the difference in Gonzalez's situation between last year and this year. In 2010, Gonzalez hit 36 points higher on the road, and hit 20 HR away from Petco, versus just 11 in San Diego. Partner that with the fact that he goes from the Padres (22nd in the majors in runs scored) to the Red Sox (2nd), and you're looking at a very real chance of a .300-110-35-110 season out of Gonzalez...as a floor.

Why I'm Taking Hanley Over Pujols

As you might have been able to tell from the title of this post, I'm assuming some level of knowledge with regards to fantasy baseball among readers of this article. If you're uninterested in fantasy baseball, you're probably better off waiting until April, when the NFL draft comes around, and the NHL season draws to a close.

Every list I look at has Albert Pujols as its #1 player. He's the consensus first player that should come off the board in every league. And really, you can never go wrong acquiring Albert Pujols. He's a megastar, unquestionably the best hitter in baseball. He gives you batting average, runs, home runs, and RBI, all in spades, and even tosses in a couple steals, because why not?

But if it's me with the #1 overall pick, or setting up a top __ list, or deciding how to allocate my auction funds, Hanley Ramirez is at the top of my rankings. Since it'd be a pretty boring post if I didn't, I'll explain why.

(By the way, this article assumes a 12-team league. In a 10-team league, position eligibility loses some of its importance, and I think makes it a dead heat between Hanley and Pujols).

We'll start with a look at their stats. These are their average 5x5 stats over the past five years (starting with Hanley's first full season):

Ramirez: .313, 112 runs, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 39 SB
Pujols: .330, 111 runs, 41 HR, 122 RBI, 9 SB

Obviously you're ecstatic with either of those lines. Hanley gives you across the board plus production other than RBI, and Pujols will post outstanding numbers in four different categories. Based purely on numbers, you're probably leaning towards Pujols, and that's perfectly reasonable. You're thinking, "Oh, I can just draft Michael Bourn in the 11th round to take care of my steals." And you can, of course you can. I won't ever say that taking Pujols first overall is a bad pick. It's a safe pick, a sure thing, and you'd be following the advice of all the experts.

But not my advice (notice how I just labeled myself a non-expert...oops!). I'm assuming you've all done ten or twelve fantasy baseball drafts, yes? When you're going through your draft, true or false, you much more often find yourself trying to find a reasonable steals guy to draft than a reasonable power guy to draft?

Of course it's steals. The thing about steals guys is that, when it comes to baseball, they're actually not all that valuable. Sure, speed is nice, and if you can be a very effective basestealer, you can put yourself into a position to score a lot of runs. But a bopper will always be more valuable, have a more solidified lineup spot, and thus, be a safer pick in the middle rounds. Think about guys like Dave Roberts and Eric Young, speed guys who disappeared because their speed wasn't enough to keep them playing every day.

The speed of Hanley acts as a counter-weight to Pujols' power numbers. Now, Pujols still has a 17 point edge in batting average. What position does he play again? First base? And Hanley plays...shortstop, that's right. But is position eligibility something you even want to take into account at the top of the draft?

Umm...yes? Why is Robinson Cano's average draft position 9.9? Because it's so impossible to find a .315 hitter who gets 25 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 runs? Kevin Youkilis is going 19 picks later. Vlad Guerrero is going 107 picks later. The reason Cano is so enticing (beyond his talent) is that he's a second baseman.

To wrap it all up, what position would rather be in 22 picks: you've got a huge-hitting 1B and holes at all the tougher positions to fill, or you've got a do-everything SS, and can wait for the right 1B at the right time in the draft? As a bit of reference, here are a couple guys at each position, their numbers from last year, and their average draft position (ignoring guys whose ADP is less than 24, since theoretically they won't be available, and guys with multiple position eligibility):

1B

• Kevin Youkilis* (.307, 77 R, 19 HR, 62 RBI in 102 games) - ADP of 28.6
  
• Adam Dunn (.260, 85 R, 38 HR, 103 RBI) - ADP of 50.6
• Kendry Morales (.290, 29 R, 11 HR, 39 RBI in 51 games) - ADP of 59.6
• Justin Morneau (.345, 53 R, 18 HR, 56 RBI in 81 games) - ADP of 60.3
• Billy Butler (.318, 77 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI) - ADP of 66.5
  
• Paul Konerko (.312, 89 R, 39 HR, 111 RBI) - ADP of 93.4
  

SS

• Jose Reyes (.282, 83 R, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 30 SB in 133 games) - ADP of 27.2
• Jimmy Rollins (.243, 48 R, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 17 SB in 88 games) - ADP of 44.6
• Derek Jeter (.270, 111 R, 10 HR, 67 RBI, 18 SB) - ADP of 52.5
• Alexei Ramirez (.282, 83 R, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB) - ADP of 70.2
• Elvis Andrus (.265, 88 R, 0 HR, 35 RB, 32 SB) - ADP of 99.3
• Stephen Drew (.278, 83 R, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 10 SB) - ADP of 100.4
  

*Youkilis is slated to start at 3B for the Red Sox, so I'd reckon part of his value comes from that additional pending position eligibility.

The ultimate scenario would be if Jose Reyes were to fall to your second round pick, but there's just no way you could count on that. And if you miss out on Reyes, you're sifting through the bargain bin at shortstop. Meanwhile, you should be able to get Morales or Morneau with your 5th round pick (#49), or Konerko all the way down in the 7th (#73). Or, if you wanted to just ignore 1B for a while, both Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche had at least 19 HR, 75 R, and 80 RBI, and they're both going after pick #200, putting their draft spot somewhere in the middle of the 16th round.

You know what shortstop falls in that area? Yunel Escobar (.256, 60 R, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 6 SB in 135 games).

Take Hanley. Unless you're in the same league as me, and I've got the #2 pick. In that scenario, Albert Pujols is a no-brainer. :)

Not-So-Super Idea, Mario

If you're a hockey fan, you've heard/read Mario Lemieux's comments about the fracas between the Islanders and the Penguins last weekend. He decried the punishments as insufficient (a perfectly reasonable stance; the contest was a bloodbath), and then spewed this nonsense:

"If the events relating to Friday night reflect the state of the league, I need to re-think whether I want to be a part of it."

Am I the only one who had flashbacks to another whiny Pittsburgh sports figure? James Harrison said he considered retiring because of the NFL's new commitment to follow rules already in their rulebooks. Now, a hockey legend, maybe the second best player of all time, says he might want to end his relationship with his sport because a few Islanders weren't suspended enough?

I had a bunch of ideas for this article. Metaphors, analogies, and other comments. And then I read what other people have already written, and they've outlined it pretty well already.

My best thought is this: really, truly, who gives a shit about Mario Lemieux in today's NHL? He's an owner, one of thirty. If any owner doesn't want to be a part of the league, you know what he can do? Sell the team. There would be plenty of wealthy investors very interested in purchasing a team with the national appeal of the Penguins, and a brand new stadium to boot. Mark Cuban has expressed interest in the past.

Would it feel weird for the league to turn its back on one of its greatest players? Yes, of course. And Penguins fans would be crushed; the man who saved their team back when it was terrible feeling so wronged by the league that he abandoned it? No small story. But once Sidney Crosby gets back on the ice, Penguins fans will put aside feelings of betrayal on behalf of Mario, and get back to hating the Capitals and rooting for their team.

As I said, other people have written pieces expressing many of my other sentiments, so I'll just link them here. And here. And also here.

Sports Quizzes

So rather than talk to you about the Super Bowl, which was entertaining, I'd like to offer you a link to one of my favorite sites right now.

Sporcle is a site that has trivia quizzes on tons of topics. Most notably with regards to this site, however, is the Sports topic . There are a ton of interesting quizzes on there, just waiting for you to eat them up.

Go ahead. Eat them up. I'll be here when you're done.

2010 Games of the Year #1 - League of Legends

With apologies to Chip, League of Legends is my Game of the Year.

League of Legends, developed by Riot Games, is one of a few successors to the classic Warcraft III custom game, Defense of the Ancients (DotA). When my brother sent me a link to the game over a year ago, I was intrigued, but not enough to really sit down and give the game a good run. But a few months later, when several friends started playing, I returned to see a game that had developed considerably.

The basic concept of the game is a glorified arena. Two teams of three or five players meet on a battlefield. Waves of troops pour out of two bases, pushing towards the other base. The players each control a champion who joins the battle, trying to turn the tide of combat.

The sheer complexity of skills, and the potential for great teamwork is what keeps me coming back to the game. They release a new hero every couple weeks, and while I'd really like to see a new map (hint hint Riot), the new heroes keep things fresh enough.

Oh, did I mention the game is free to play? There are hundreds of items you can buy, such as champions, skins, runes, XP boosts, and other useful items, but you don't have to spend a nickel to play. Furthermore, Riot has taken an admirable stance and insisted that "power" would never be sold. That is, any item that increases your champions abilities can only be bought with Influence Points, an in-game currency that you accumulate from playing. So while I can't use the Nurse Akali skin unless I pay for it, I can always buy runes to boost my damage and kill any Nurse Akali I come across.

The game isn't without its flaws. Their servers are sometimes inconsistent, particularly with regards to friends lists and chat, but they've settled down the gameplay servers. It's also pretty frustrating at times, since you're matched up with and against complete strangers fairly often, and a lot of them can be terrible/rude/stupid. But you'll get that cross-section no matter what game you play.

In the end, it's a well-made game that's a lot of fun, and into which I put a great deal of time in 2010. Congratulations League of Legends. Victory!

2010 Games of the Year #2 - Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale

From the moment I saw the title of this game on Steam, I was intrigued. One of my favorite aspects of World of Warcraft is the buying and selling that goes on in the auction house, so a game that transfers focus onto that aspect is definitely going to draw my attention. But even with my interest piqued, I didn't expect to love the game as much as I have.

You take on the role of a child who has to turn her home into an item shop in order to pay down her now-missing father's extraordinary debt. The game does a good job of walking you through the beginning, and opening up options over time rather than overwhelming you early on. But you also stand virtually zero chance of actually beating the game the first time through. It's got a similar feature to Dead Rising, where you can start your game over, keeping your merchant level and purchased goods. And most people should be able to generate enough money to pay off the debt by their second playthrough.

Yes, buying and selling products is a big part of the game, and yes, I do enjoy it. But luckily, that's only half of the game. The other half is a dungeon-crawler, with several different warriors to choose from. You pay a hero and send him/her off into a dungeon to fetch treasures that you can sell at your store. The different champions have surprisingly different abilities and play styles, and you learn to appreciate each of them in their own way. You gain one companion early on, but as you progress through the dungeons and meet more people around town, you gain several more warriors to choose from.

The strongest evidence in support of Recettear being near the top of my list is simply that I've poured a ton of time into it. Between the two games I've played (at home and at work), I've put in over 40 hours of game time, and I don't foresee it dropping off any time soon. That's partly because my gaming options at work are limited, but also because the game is simply a lot of fun.

And I've still got so much left to do! There's at least one more warrior to unlock, tons of new gear to discover, and I'm less than halfway to the maximum merchant level. I expect to be playing Recettear plenty in 2011 as well.

Cooke

I'll try to put together a better, more complete post on this or some other topic later in the week, but I needed to get this onto (digital) paper right away.

Matt Cooke is a bad guy.

2010 Games of the Year #3 - Dead Rising 2

This ranking probably comes as a shock to a lot of you. Dead Rising 2 was by far my most anticipated game of the year; it was, in fact, the only game I pre-ordered. And at #3, I certainly don't regret having pre-ordered it.

I'd go into a whole discourse on the game's merits and how it plays, but I've really already done that. First, I talked about the prequel mini-game that Capcom released to generate buzz for the game, and make a little cash. Then, I spoke about the game itself, here. The game has since also had an epilogue game released, which I've purchased, but haven't played yet.

So why did it end up #3, rather than at its preordained spot up at #1? Well, two main factors.

First, the game, while entertaining and a distinct improvement on the original (which I also loved), didn't expand too much on the features of the original game. The crafting system was a neat addition, and the interface/controls are definitely crisper, but it's still basically the same game. Also, I'm a sucker for achievements, but many of the achievements for this game were simply outrageous. That sort of scenario dampens my feelings of accomplishment, which are really the main reason I play video games at all.

Second, through no fault of its own, Dead Rising 2 just didn't measure up to the top two games. It was a very good game, and a lot of fun. The top two were just better. Which games, you ask? Stay tuned.

2010 Games of the Year #4 - Mass Effect

From the first day Mass Effect came out, my brother has told me, "This is your kind of game, dude." Three years later, I finally decided to give it a shot, and I was very pleased with the results.

I played a lot of Knights of the Old Republic, and the games are similar. The interactions with all sorts of people, the wide array of options given to you over the course of the game, and the good vs. evil spectrum of your actions. The main difference between the games is the live combat, and I think it's for the better. Rather than relying on good odds in a D&D style rolling system in order to hit your enemies, you just have to hit them. It's also a lot more gratifying to blast a guy with a shotgun manually than to "pew pew" him with a blaster pistol automatically.

The graphics are good, the interface is good (although combat can be a little clunky), and the story is interesting and fun. And immersive. You can literally play the game for 40 hours and still not have completed half of it. I know. I haven't completed half of the game yet, I don't think. And I'm well over 40 hours.

For whatever reason, I went elsewhere before I finished Mass Effect. I didn't stop liking the game, and I didn't get frustrated or disappointed with anything. I think I just started playing something else, and never went back. That's the only reason I've got the game down here at #4 instead of higher up.

And hey, any spot on the list is pretty good.

2010 Games of the Year #5 - World of Warcraft - Cataclysm

Some of you know that I've spent quite a lot of time playing World of Warcraft this past year, and certainly plenty of time after the most recent expansion. It's possible that I put more hours into WoW over the past year than any other game. It would seem logical for the most-played game to be #1 or #2 on my annual list.

But I've been playing WoW for years. The eligible game is not the original WoW, but the Cataclysm expansion, and that's a different bird altogether. A bird that I didn't get all the way into.

Here are some notable features that I associated with the expansion when evaluating it for this award:

• Two new races: goblins and worgen - I've been hoping for the opportunity to play as goblins for a while, so this was a nice feature. However, I had sort of been hoping that the goblins would be a third, unassociated faction, rather than part of the Horde. So, my excitement was tempered.
• New zones, new dungeons - I've seen some of the starting areas for goblins and worgen, haven't seen any of the 81-85 zones, and likely won't for a long time, if ever. My style is to play several characters, rather than push one up to max level.
  
• New secondary skill, Archaeology - I haven't gotten high enough with it to know if it's actually useful, but I do like digging up fossils on a basic level, so it's a good addition.
  
• Totally revamped classes - This was the most important part of the equation, and the part that brought the expansion into my top 5.
  

The changes they made to the classes, specifically to the paladin class, were tremendous. Long ago, I made a dwarf paladin, and I grew to be disinterested in him. He just didn't have the fun factor that some of the other classes had (rogues, hunters, etc). But with the revamped skills and talent trees, paladins became, in my opinion, the most fun class. So fun that I'd guess that paladins are my two most played characters.

Check in tomorrow for the #4 game of 2011.

2011 NFL Playoffs - Super Bowl

This post contains adult language, and is intended for a mature audience. Reader discretion is advised.

Full disclosure, I hate the fucking Steelers.

Right after the conference championship games, I said to myself, "These teams are even." I looked over their numbers through the regular season and playoffs, and still came out with "These teams are even." I looked back at my previous posts about the playoff games, trying to find some point I made earlier that would tilt me in one direction or the other. But alas, you guessed it, I still thought these teams were even.

Then this happened:

"I don't want to hurt nobody. I don't want to step on nobody's foot or hurt their toe. I don't want to have no dirt or none of this rubber on this field fly into their eye and make their eye hurt. I just want to tackle them softly on the ground and if you all can, we'll lay a pillow down where I'm going to tackle them, so they don't hit the ground too hard ... Mr. Goodell."
-James Harrison, LB, Steelers

On Super Bowl media day, Harrison offered up that gem as an indication that he's still upset that he was asked to treat other players like human beings. In the same session, he indicated that he had experienced concussions and not left the game, implying that people who get concussions and do leave the game are less manly than he. To the educated sports fan, though, Harrison's revelation merely confirmed our suspicions that he's fucked up in the head.

Does this statement change anything about Harrison? No, not really. I don't expect him to do anything different on Sunday; his motor will be running and he'll be ready to go, as will everyone else on the Steelers...right?

Here's what I know. When Harrison made his biggest deal about the headshot rules, after the Steelers rolled the Browns in week 6, the team seemed to lose focus. They barely won at Miami, 23-22, against a team that won only one home game all season. They followed that with a 20-10 loss to the Saints, then edged a free-falling Bengals team that had lost four straight, 27-21. They wrapped up a four game stretch by losing 39-26 at home to the Patriots.

Pittsburgh rebounded the following week by decimating the Raiders, but a chink was perhaps found. The Steelers didn't respond well to being called a dirty team. It's clear that, for whatever reason, Harrison had it in his head again that he was being put upon by the league, and for the Packers, it couldn't come at a better time. You take any advantage you can find.

I could talk about the teams' offenses and defenses, but you know them. I've already talked about them in previous weeks, and if you've watched any sports coverage at all this week, you've heard all the numbers. On Sunday, we'll watch two pretty evenly matched teams go head to head.

Normally I'd say I hope it's a good game, but I really don't. I hope the Steelers get throttled. I hope they go into halftime down 37-3, because Mike McCarthy called a pair of 2-point conversions late in the half, to rub salt in the wounds. I hope James Harrison gets upended and breaks his fucking leg. I hope Ryan Clark gets knocked out on the first play when he (inevitably) leads with his helmet on a tackle attempt.

I hope.

Prediction: Packers 29, Steelers 28

Fantasy Baseball Previews

So historically, I've always done some fantasy baseball preview articles. Baseball is my favorite fantasy sport, and I love talking about it. But, I've always sort of tempered myself in my posts, for two main reasons:

1. I'm in an ultra-competitive league, and I don't want to give away any of my personal interests.
2. I could write a hundred articles on fantasy baseball, and it's tough to pick a few topics to actually write about.

I've got some ideas of articles I'll almost certainly write, but I wanted to extend an offer to all of you: tell me what you want to hear. If you've got any topics you think I should talk about, or if you want to take your own stance and have me respond to it, by all means, drop me a line and let me know. You can reach me at joe.joe.sports@gmail.com. I'm completely and utterly available.

That goes for you too, ladies. Holla!

Why I'm Siding With The Players

With the NBA and the NFL both facing labor disputes and potential work stoppages in 2011, I thought I would take a little time and outline why I'm siding with players. In fact, I'm siding with the players this time, next time and probably every time after that. Here's why:

1) The players won't propose a deal that's bad for ownership

No, you read that correctly, the players won't and can't propose a deal that is bad for ownership. A bad deal for ownership would be one in which their labor costs to the players and other operating costs are so high that they don't make an acceptable profit and consider shutting down the sport for an extended length of time. If this were to happen, the players are basically putting themselves out of business. Since the players are (at least semi) rational, they won't offer a deal that kills the golden goose. Thus, the players have no choice but to agree to a deal that keeps the owners happily in business. Sure, they'll try to push as far into the owners profits as far as possible, but ultimately the players have to present a deal that is good for both sides.

The flip side of this is that the owners don't have to present a deal that is good for both sides. In fact, they want to maximize profits by lowering operating costs as much as possible. As long as their deal would be good enough to keep the talented players from choosing other professions (probably not hard to do since the average American makes somewhere south of $40k), then the owners would be in business and raking in even more cash.

2) The players are what we want to see

The players ARE the game. Watching the world's greatest athletes play the most exciting games at the very highest level is the reason we tune in to professional sports. Want proof of this: How many WNBA games did you watch last year? How many Division III college football games did you watch? How many cricket matches did you watch? I'm guessing the sum of these three question is probably less than five. Now, how many NFL games did you watch? That number is a lot higher, isn't it?

The talent is really the reason we watch professional sports. Without extraordinarily gifted players performing remarkable physical tasks, nobody pays attention. It doesn't matter how good your marketing is, how nice the stadium is or how delicious the hot dogs are, if the players aren't highly skilled nothing else matters. This isn't to say that we don't need the business side of sports to make things operate, we do, but the players are what draw people to the game.

In addition, it's important to note how scarce talented players are. Approximately 400 guys play in the NBA every year. Maybe another 2000 guys play in the NFL each year. That's 2400 people out of roughly 300 million Americans (yes, yes, some of the NBA guys come from overseas, bear with me). That means that roughly 0.0008% of the country is talented enough to play in the NFL or NBA. I don't care what other profession you name, I'm guessing more that 0.0008% of the population can do it.

3) It's a zero sum game

I've heard it a thousand times: "The players are just a bunch of spoiled millionaires who should shut up and be thankful they are getting paid 100 times more than the average school teacher". Ok, that's true, but guess what, the owners are multimillionaires too, and in most cases billionaires. Either way somebody really, really, really rich is going to end up with the money. It makes no sense to tell the players just to be grateful when it essentially makes someone else richer. Both sides are trying to maximize their slice of the revenue, this is capitalism.

4) Ticket prices aren't going anywhere

Another favorite argument is that if the players would accept less money, the owners (who were then facing lower operating costs) would lower ticket prices. This is flat out wrong. Ticket prices are calculated based on what people are willing to pay to walk in the gate. It's based on market research and demand to see the product on the field. Do this thought experiment: If all the player's salaries dropped to $100,000 tomorrow, what would happen to ticket prices? That's right, the ticket prices would stay exactly where they currently are...and the owners would pocket the difference.

5) The owners have an investment, the players have a job

Due to the increasing popularity of American professional sports (both in America and expanding around the world), an NBA or NFL franchise is worth more today than it was ten years ago...approximately 50% more. For example, the Jacksonville Jaguars (the NFL's least valuable franchise), was worth $460 million in 2000 is now worth $725 million. The Oakland Raiders went from $315 million to $758 million over the same ten year period. Even my beloved Cleveland Browns went from $557 million to $1032 million proving that you don't need to win to make money. Even if the owners weren't making any money year to year (and believe me, they are as all but 6 franchises had profits of greater than $10 million in 2009), the act of simply owning the team is returning 50% over ten years. Obviously, past results don't guarantee future returns, but, damn.

The players are another story. The average NFL career is only a few years and when you are done, you're done. Of course there is the NFL pension plan, but that is only for players that played at least three years and you can't get full benefits until the age of 55. While this is a nice benefit that most American workers would probably kill to receive, it doesn't exactly seem to match up with the 50% return on investment the owners are seeing.


Highly skilled players, representing the only real commodity of their sport, presenting a reasonable, win/win offer to ownership that is seeing huge returns on their investments. That is why I'm supporting the players in the upcoming NBA and NFL labor disputes.

Games of the Year - 2010 Eligible List

In what has shockingly become an annual feature, I'll be posting my personal Game of the Year list for 2010 all next week. We'll start with #5 on Monday, and finish off with my #1 game of the year on Friday, February 11th.

As you may remember, the Housington Game of the Year system is a little different from your normal Game of the Year stuff. I don't buy very many new games, but I do generally buy/play a lot. So, my Game of the Year eligible list includes games that I feel like I got into enough to use up their "rookie" status. The list of eligible games is below.

This year's list is extensive, as it was my first full year purchasing and playing games from Steam. Their sales are numerous and the discounts are deep. To give you an idea of how much so, I've already got more games in my Steam library that I haven't played than are on the PC list below. I also purchased a PlayStation 3 in 2010, though obviously from the lack of any PS3 games below, you can tell that I haven't really gotten into it yet. Expect that to change in 2011.

GameCube
Mario Golf: Toadstool Tour

PC
And Yet It Moves
Alien Swarm
BattleForge
Borderlands
Braid
Dead Frontier
Dungeons & Dragons Online
Gish
League of Legends
Left 4 Dead 2
Lord of the Rings Online
Magic: The Gathering - Duels of the Planeswalkers
Osmos
Puzzle Agent
Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale
World of Goo
World of Warcraft: Cataclysm

Xbox 360
Band Hero
Dead Rising 2: Case Zero
Dead Rising 2
Guitar Hero 5
Guitar Hero Smash Hits
Lego Rock Band
Mass Effect
Overlord
Rock Band 3
South Park Ultimate Tower Defense

I'd love to hear your predictions, if you've got any. You've got a week to make your guesses. And I'll tell you what; to make it easier, I'll post a poll over on the sideboard.

Edit: I removed BIT.TRIP.BEAT and Company of Heroes from the list of eligible games. The reality is that I did not play those two games enough for them to have lost their rookie eligibility. I don't expect either to make it into the Top 5 in 2011, but they remain eligible.

NHL All-Star Draft - Team Lidstrom

Eddie and I agreed that we both feel like the Team Lidstrom trio is a little more impressive than the Team Staal trio, but certainly you're not unhappy with either set of superstars. Here's how I arranged my lines:

Forwards

Line 1 - Henrik Sedin, Martin St. Louis, Corey Perry
Line 2 - Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson, Paul Stasny
Line 3 - Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Martin Havlat
Line 4 - Matt Duchene, Daniel Briere, David Backes

Defense

Pairing 1 - Nicklas Lidstrom, Zdeno Chara
Pairing 2 - Dan Boyle, Brent Burns
Pairing 3 - Dustin Byfuglien, Erik Karlsson

Goalies

Period 1 - Carey Price
Period 2 - Tim Thomas
Period 3 - Henrik Lundqvist

What Happened During the Draft

Coming in, I had only one plan: get Chara. My feeling was that he was the one guy, even more than Stamkos, who was a cut above the rest of the guys at his position. Had Eddie taken Chara first, I'd have obviously settled on the goal-scorer extraordinaire Stamkos, but I was glad that Chara fell.

Of course, after I saw how the first two picks went for Eddie, I immediately questioned my selection of Chara. I mean, Chara's great, but Stamkos, Ovechkin, and Staal or Kesler creates a pretty impossible matchup for even the best opponents. I had to trust my gut, and hope I had planned correctly.

I had been hoping to get both Sedins, but I didn't pay attention to the fact that Eddie already had two centers when I took Henrik. Had I taken Daniel, maybe I'd have been able to snag Henrik the following round. Or maybe it wouldn't have mattered. I'm a big fan of Brad Richards, so I'm okay with how things turned out there.

I really liked the guys in the middle of my draft. Perry, Byfuglien, Toews, Boyle, and Duchene were all guys I had hoped to get. I took Tim Thomas and Henrik Lundqvist a little earlier than I had to, because I didn't want to get backed into having to take Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury can be great, but he can also single-handedly lose games for you.

In the last few picks, I was really just looking for guys to fill out the roster. Havlat's a nice veteran, and Stasny showed during the Olympics that he has the capability to shine on a big stage. David Backes is on my fantasy hockey team, and he's putting up great numbers for me. Also, I heard somewhere that if he got picked last, he'd start knocking heads at the All-Star game. Both Eddie and I agreed that this was reason enough to let him slip to the last pick.

Laying the Lines

Picking the lines was more art than science, in that I didn't really have much in the way of a "valid" reason to partner up certain guys; I just went with my gut mostly.

On the first forwards line, I wanted to make sure I had enough firepower to compete with what would inevitably be a more talented line on the other side. I hear Corey Perry is kind of a bastard to play against, so I like him on that line. Sedin and St. Louis are megastars. I tried to pair up teammates where I could, putting Toews and Kane on one line, Richards and Eriksson on another.

On defense, I tried to make sure that each pairing had at least one rough and tumble type player. That's why Chara, Burns, and Byfuglien are each on different lines (although the idea of putting Chara and Byfuglien on the same line was briefly very appealing). I know you're technically not supposed to "hit" in the All-Star game, but come on. Somebody's gonna get chippy.

I knew I wanted Lundqvist to finish out the game, so he was a no-brainer for the third. I feel like Carey Price is a well-liked player, and certainly exciting, so I chose him to open the game. I put Tim Thomas in the middle to keep the pressure low on him, but also because a good second period can put your team in great shape. And his numbers this year are just phenomenal.

It's a shame that Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin weren't able to participate this year. The only thing I really know is that the Caps and Pens don't like each other, and it would've been interesting to see how that manifested itself in this draft. Though maybe we'll still get some snark between Kris Letang and Ovechkin...

Dare to dream.

Team Awesome

Eddie’s Team of Awesome

LW: Alex Ovechkin C: Eric Staal RW: Rick Nash
LW: Daniel Sedin C: Steven Stamkos RW:Claude Giroux
LW: Patrick Sharp C: Ryan Kesler RW: Phil Kessel
LW: Patrick Elias C: Anze Kopitar RW: Jeff Skinner

D: Kris Letang D: Duncan Keith
D: Mike Green D: Marc Staal

D: Shea Weber D: Keith Yandle

1st Period G: Cam Ward
2nd Period G: Marc-Andre Fleury
3rd Period G: Jonas Hiller

Going into the draft I was looking for speed and offense. With the lack of hitting in the all-star game I thought the key to victory was to have quick and mobile defensemen that could jump into the offense and stay in front of big, quick and powerful forwards. I think I did a great job doing this by drafting two of the top offensive D-men in Letang and Keith to go along with assistant captain Mike Green.

In addition with the game played in Carolina I wanted to get as many Hurricanes to get the crowd behind Team Awesome. That is another reason why I elected to start Cam Ward. I am looking for a quick start out of the gate with the young players of team Awesome feeding of the energy of the fans. Also a player like Ovechkin loves to impress and play to the crowd. I am looking for him to have a huge presence and affect on the game. Finally as little of an effect it may have on the game I tried to match opposite handed defensemen together. This will allow them to keep pucks in the offensive zone.

The results are this team is Legan... wait for it... dary. Team Fantastic is lame. I hope Backes gets chippy... Nash and Ovi will drop him.

What are your thoughts? Think I overpaid for any player? Think Loui Eriksson is as hot as I do? Think the Sedin twins will drop the gloves?

2011 NHL All-Star Mock Draft

The NHL is making a twist on their All-Star game once again. This year's game hearkens back to schoolyard hockey (which I've never played, but I hear it's wild. You apparently just play hockey for an extended period of time). Two captains, along with two assistant captains per team, go back and forth selecting players until all 36 players have been assigned to a team. It's got the potential to be really fun TV, and I'm hopeful it pans out that way.

This year's teams set up as follows:

Team Staal
Captain - Eric Staal, C, Hurricanes
Assistant Captain - Ryan Kesler, C, Canucks
Assistant Captain - Mike Green, D, Capitals

Team Lidstrom
Captain - Nicklas Lidstrom, D, Red Wings
Assistant Captain - Patrick Kane, RW, Blackhawks
Assistant Captain - Martin St. Louis, RW, Lightning

So, naturally, my brother and I decided to conduct our own mock draft and see how the teams shake up. My brother took control of Team Staal, I took over for Team Lidstrom. We did a coin flip, and Team Staal won the flip, so they drafted first. Here are the results:

1. Team Staal - Steven Stamkos, C, Lightning
2. Team Lidstrom - Zdeno Chara, D, Bruins
3. Team Staal - Alex Ovechkin, LW, Capitals
4. Team Lidstrom - Henrik Sedin, C, Canucks
   
5. Team Staal - Daniel Sedin, LW, Canucks
   
6. Team Lidstrom - Brad Richards, C, Stars
   
7. Team Staal - Kris Letang, D, Penguins
   
8. Team Lidstrom - Corey Perry, RW, Ducks
   
9. Team Staal - Duncan Keith, D, Blackhawks
   
10. Team Lidstrom - Dustin Byfuglien, D, Thrashers
    
11. Team Staal - Rick Nash, RW, Blue Jackets
    
12. Team Lidstrom - Tim Thomas, G, Bruins
    
13. Team Staal - Shea Weber, D, Predators
    
14. Team Lidstrom - Henrik Lundqvist, G, Rangers
    
15. Team Staal - Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Penguins
    
16. Team Lidstrom - Jonathan Toews, C, Blackhawks
    
17. Team Staal - Cam Ward, G, Hurricanes
    
18. Team Lidstrom - Dan Boyle, D, Sharks
    
19. Team Staal - Jonas Hiller, G, Ducks
    
20. Team Lidstrom - Carey Price, G, Canadiens
    
21. Team Staal - Claude Giroux, RW, Flyers
    
22. Team Lidstrom - Matt Duchene, C, Avalanche
    
23. Team Staal - Anze Kopitar, C, Kings
    
24. Team Lidstrom - Danny Briere, RW, Flyers
    
25. Team Staal - Keith Yandle, D, Coyotes
    
26. Team Lidstrom - Brent Burns, D, Wild
    
27. Team Staal - Marc Staal, D, Rangers
    
28. Team Lidstrom - Loui Eriksson, LW, Stars
    
29. Team Staal - Patrick Sharp, LW, Blackhawks
    
30. Team Lidstrom - Erik Karlsson, D, Senators
    
31. Team Staal - Phil Kessel, RW, Maple Leafs
    
32. Team Lidstrom - Martin Havlat, RW, Wild
    
33. Team Staal - Patrick Elias, LW, Devils
    
34. Team Lidstrom - Paul Stasny, C, Avalanche
    
35. Team Staal - Jeff Skinner, C, Hurricanes
    
36. Team Lidstrom - David Backes, RW, Blues

Eddie and I will set up our lines and post them shortly. Here's hoping the real thing's spectacle plays out well on television.

Rollercoaster Tycoon

As a lot of you probably know, I spend a lot of time playing computer games. As some of you don't know, I also like Disney World a lot. And pretty much every time I go to Disney World, I come home and start playing Roller Coaster Tycoon again.

This year, I actually didn't start playing right away. I got back into World of Warcraft, and played some NHL '09, and even revived MLB Front Office Manager and League of Legends. But when the huge storm hit on Wednesday and we lost internet, I lost my two big computer game time sinks (WoW and LoL). Roller Coaster Tycoon was the inevitable beneficiary.

This blog post is for RCT fans. Here's some of my own discoveries, for your edification:

• The first thing you should do when you start a level is go to your research screen and do the following: bump research up to maximum, disable Ride Improvements and Scenery and Theming, disable roller coasters if you already have the Steel Roller Coaster (see below), and disable shops and stalls if you've already got the following: any food, any drink, information kiosk, bathroom.
  
• The Steel Roller Coaster's pre-made track called Shuttle Loop is a great money-maker. It's cheap to build, takes up a small area on your map, and doesn't require you to try to work out the intricacies of banking turns and minimizing nausea. There are other small tracks in the other versions of the Steel Roller Coaster. I recommend them as well.
• Go Karts has the highest potential excitement of any ride. Seriously. It seems like as long as you don't have too many level straightaways, the excitement just goes up and up with each block of track you add.
• People like the Log Flume more than the excitement level would make you think they do. It's inexplicable, but it's true.
• Charging admission to the park rather than for each individual ride is almost always the best way to go. It keeps your rides popular, and I think you make more money anyways. You can also still charge a small price for roller coasters and other similar rides.
• The desert parks are the best, because you don't usually have many trees to get around, and you don't have to worry about whether or not you should let your handymen get distracted by mowing the grass (answer: you should not let them).
  

What about you guys? Got any of your own advice? Post it in the comments.

Disney World 2011

This year's Disney World trip was great, despite the fact that I was under the weather for the duration of the trip. My mom, my youngest brother Kevin, and I took Amtrak's AutoTrain. It was interesting enough that I'll devote a separate post to it, but for here, we'll say that it got us down there, and I didn't get much sleep in either direction.

My other brother Eddie and his wife Rachel came with the three of us, creating our own little Party of Five...except without Neve Campbell...or Matthew Fox...okay, it's nothing like that show, it was just a reference to the number of people.

Our accommodations were at Old Key West. It was a very nice, very quiet area, with a restaurant, a couple pools, and We got a three bedroom villa, which was big, but lacked a little on community areas. Also, the seating wasn't particularly comfortable, but hey, you're in Disney World. Get off your ass and go do stuff.

The one big disappointment on this trip was that several of my favorite rides were closed for refurbishment/repairs: Star Tours, Kali River Rapids, and my favorite ride, Splash Mountain. Lesson learned, though. Next time, we'll be planning our trip on short notice, and making sure that the important rides are open.

I went on a couple new rides, including finally trying out Space Mountain. Now, I apparently misspoke about the ride. I told Rachel that I thought Space Mountain was the fastest ride at Disney World; I wasn't even close. Space Mountain tops out at 28 miles per hour. I have no idea where I got it in my head that it was the fastest.

As I did last year, I'll give you ratings on the rides I went on for the first time:

Maelstrom Adventure Cruise (Epcot) (3/5)
This is an attraction in the Norwegian portion of Epcot. It's basically a short boat ride with a couple of tiny drops. I think if Splash Mountain wasn't closed, this would've gotten two stars, but it was closed, so three stars.

Space Mountain (Magic Kingdom) (4/5)
It may not be as fast as I thought, but it's definitely fun. My only qualm with it is that the ride is perhaps TOO dark. Still, it's a fun ride with a lot of twists and turns. I'm glad I finally checked it out.

Yep, that's it. Just two new rides for me. But I've got big plans for my next trip to Lake Buena Vista. First, Splash Mountain will be open the next time I head down there, and I'll be getting my fill of it. Second, it sounds like Star Tours is getting a dramatic overhaul that includes incorporating 3D video; that should be a lot of fun. I also want to go on the Silly Safari in Magic Kingdom; I wanted to go this year, but it closes at night. So, next time.

Who's in?

2011 NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Anybody can get 3/4 right; it's one pick off of a coin flip's chance. The conference championships are, I think, the hardest round to pick. You've got two games, and you really only get credit if you get both right. At least with the Super Bowl you just have the one game, and lots of people get it wrong. And you can always explain away a miscalculation: "Oh, well if so-and-so hadn't gotten hurt," or "I don't know why the coach changed them from what they'd done all season." But conference championships? It's win or go home for predictors, too.

So let's win. Or go home.

NFC Championship Game

#6 Green Bay Packers at #2 Chicago Bears

Pretty much every year, I've tried to convince myself that there's a way to predict the Packers will go to the Super Bowl. I always talk myself out of it, but this year's team is better than any has been since Favre was in town. As I talked about last week, the defense has caught up with one of the league's most potent offenses to create maybe the best team in football. Yes, better than the Patriots, or the Steelers, or the Falcons.

Meanwhile, the Bears seem to yet be winning games with smoke and mirrors. They took a quick lead on the Seahawks, then seemed to think the game was over in the fourth quarter (which it mostly was, but still), when they gave up three touchdowns to Matt Hasselbeck in garbage time. Did they need to hammer down on Seattle at that point? No. But I think it says something about your team when you close out the other guys.

The biggest concern here is that it was the defense that seemed to lose focus. The defense is the only reason the Bears have come this far. They sport the fourth-best points defense and ninth-best yardage defense in football, which is good, because they have the third-worst yardage offense at 289.4 yards per game. That puts them behind such offensive juggernauts as the Buffalo Bills, St. Louis Rams, and Miami Dolphins.

In the end, I think things will bear out as expected, and Green Bay will be the NFC's representative in the Super Bowl. I don't think home-field or weather or "fate" will stop these Packers from playing in Dallas. And honestly, I don't think it'll be close.

Prediction: Packers 42, Bears 20

AFC Championship Game

#6 New York Jets at #2 Pittsburgh Steelers

As some of you know, I really don't like the Steelers. It's not an assessment of their talent, as you saw me pick them to beat the Ravens last week in a nail-biter (which it was). And as I've said, I think Troy Polamalu is one of the few guys in football you simply can't overrate. But having to deal with out-of-town Pittsburgh fans, between the Penguins and Steelers, it gets obnoxious.

(Conspicuously absent are any mentions of the Pirates by Maryland's "Pittsburgh" fans; hey, Neil Walker is a nice story!)

What you might not know, however, is that I actually like the Jets. I worked in a liquor store back in 2001, and we had one of those candy machines that sold miniature football helmets for fifty cents. One of our customers bought a couple, and he didn't want the Jets helmet, so he offered to me. I've had a little Jets helmet at my desk either at home or at work ever since. I embraced the Jerricho Cotchery years (to my own demise). I cheered on Curtis Martin's end-of-career revival. And I've always had a soft spot for Chad Pennington.

And now this new group is, I think, even more likable. Rex Ryan seems like the kind of coach who can get guys to go to battle for him, and his willingness to be the focal point of trash talk and controversy is refreshing. Darrelle Revis is one of the elite players in football today (another guy like Polamalu, who is simply as good as advertised), and Mark Sanchez, while young and unpolished, is an exciting quarterback to watch when his confidence is up.

That's what makes it so hard to pick the Steelers, but it's what I've got to do. I think the Pittsburgh offense is too good at spreading the ball around to be stifled by Revis and the rest of a very good defense. And the Pittsburgh defense is going to make sure that the Jets' running game is stuffed, forcing Sanchez to win the game. He's good, and he's growing, but I don't think he's ready for that yet. Should be a good game, though.

Prediction: Steelers 26, Jets 21

2011 NFL Playoffs - Divisional Weekend

I won't spout off too much about my performance last week, but it was pretty good: three out of four correct, and I really wanted to pick the Seahawks. Let's get to this week's matchups.

NFC Playoffs

#6 Green Bay Packers at #1 Atlanta Falcons

I love this game. I'm a big fan of Aaron Rodgers, and you may remember that I've been supportive of Matt Ryan since day one. In addition to those elite quarterbacks, you've got maybe the best wide receiver in football on one side (Roddy White), and maybe the best linebacker in football on the other (Clay Matthews). At 8:00 Saturday night, all hell is going to break loose.

So who'll win? That's a tough call. The Packers lost 20-17 in Atlanta over Thanksgiving weekend on a Matt Bryant field goal with 9 seconds left. I expect this game to be just as hard fought as the first, and it'll likely come down to last-minute heroics by one side or the other. I think I'll go with the Packers, though. The defense showed what it could do against the Eagles last week, and I expect them to be up to the task again.

Prediction: Packers 28, Falcons 25

#4 Seattle Seahawks at #2 Chicago Bears

Leave it to the NFL to create a situation where the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks could make it to the Super Bowl. Last week's game put them up against a team without two starting RBs. This week finds them facing a quarterback whose up and down year has found him on the wrong side of a TD/INT ratio five times this season. Furthermore, the Seahawks actually beat Chicago in week 6.

That said, the Bears won seven of their last nine games to finish the season, and Jay Cutler seemed to hit a bit of a stride, posting QB ratings above 100 four times in weeks 12-17. The hope in Chicago is that Matt Forte's lightened load this year (thanks to free agent acquisition Chester Taylor) will leave him with fresh legs for these playoffs. I like the Bears to end the dream for Seattle.

Prediction: Bears 27, Seahawks 13

AFC Playoffs

#5 Baltimore Ravens at #2 Pittsburgh Steelers

I'd like to give you a long explanation about this game. I'd like to feel justified telling you that it's a bitter divisional rivalry that will likely only get nastier. But the reality is, I made my pick a while ago on this one, based on a simple rule:

Unless it's the Patriots, the Steelers don't lose games with a healthy Troy Polamalu. There are some other great safeties in the league; hell, there's another in this game. But no defensive player has a greater impact on the outcome of games than Polamalu. He's playing (he's listed as questionable, but come on, he's playing), so I'm taking Pittsburgh. Should be a mean game, though, if you're into that sort of thing.

Prediction: Steelers 30, Ravens 20

#6 New York Jets at #1 New England Patriots

So, this is kind of the other matchup that everyone was hoping to see in these playoffs. The Jets and Patriots clearly do not like each other, from the top of the organizations all the way down. Those kinds of sentiments often make for entertaining pregame drama, but once the ball gets kicked off, it's all about football.

Lucky for us viewers, both of these teams play interesting football. There's plenty of talent on both sides of the ball for both teams, on and off the field. I'm going to go with the Patriots, though, for two reasons. First, the Patriots' most talented player is at quarterback, the best possible position to have an advantage. Second, the Jets seem to be really concerned with the Patriots right now. I understand that it's a rivalry, and that you have strong feelings, but I feel like it's better to channel that aggression into your game-planning and execution. It feels like the Patriots are doing that a lot better than New York.

Prediction: Patriots 20, Jets 9

Almost Guilty Until Proven Guilty

The chatter on Facebook/Twitter/the blogosphere has been pretty uniform today: Auburn had better enjoy their title while it lasts. There appears to be a consensus that the NCAA will eventually find additional information that will be enough to declare him to have acted improperly, and that Auburn will have to vacate their title victory from last night.

I find that unlikely. First off, an investigation was conducted and completed. Cam Newton was declared ineligible for a couple hours, then, after Auburn filled out the proper paperwork, was reinstated. The end result was that the NCAA investigated cleared Newton to play.

The reasoning I've heard is that, with regards to a parent or third party requesting illegal benefits, there are three circumstances for which a player can be suspended:

1. The parent or third party accepts benefits.
2. The parent or third party asks for benefits with the player's knowledge.
3. The parent or third party asks for benefits, then the player attends the solicited school, regardless of whether or not the player knew.

Apparently the information here has indicated that none of those three situations occurred. My understanding is that Cam Newton's father and some other guy tried to get money from Mississippi State in exchange for sending Newton there to play. Mississippi State didn't pay, and Newton went to Auburn. The only circumstance under which Newton would be ineligible would be if he knew that his dad asked for this money, and proving that someone knew something is nearly impossible (see Barry Bonds).

Do I think something improper went down that actually involved Cam Newton? It's possible. I operate under the assumption that pretty much every star college athlete gets some kind of improper benefit or preferential treatment. There's too much money in college sports, and the elite players are too valuable to their schools not to get some kind of extra cheese on their pizzas. But based on everything we've heard, Newton was okay to play, and Auburn was fine to play him.

If new information comes out, then the NCAA will react to that as necessary. But right now, I don't see things going that way. So I extend my congratulations to Auburn on the national title they deserved to win in 2004.

A Fitness Challenge

For those of you interested, I've started a fitness challenge with my cousin. It's basically a head-to-head competition between us, a Biggest Loser grudge match. If you want more details, or want to follow the action, you can go to the link below:

http://psychotronvsgargantuar.blogspot.com/

I'm Psychotron, obviously.