Thursday, February 25, 2010

Is He A Keeper? - NL West, 2010

Arizona Diamondbacks

No-brainers
  • Dan Haren, SP
  • Mark Reynolds, 3B/1B
  • Justin Upton, OF
Keepers
  • Brandon Webb, SP - He was too productive and too reliable to not think he'll be able to bounce back from his shoulder injury.
Non-keepers
  • Stephen Drew, SS - He's got pedigree and he turns the magic age of 27 this year, but there's still way too much of a risk of him being more Bobby Crosby than Cal Ripken.
  • Edwin Jackson, SP - Jackson reminds me of guys like Ryan Dempster or Justin Duchscherer, who had keeper-type seasons, but you just know you shouldn't keep them.
  • Chad Qualls, RP - He had far too rocky a road to get to his final numbers. Also his final numbers were just okay.
  • Chris B. Young, OF - He's got the power/speed combo that we look for in potential keepers, but his issues with batting average have gone from bad to worse. Worth a flier, not worth keeping.

Colorado Rockies

No-brainers
  • Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Keepers
  • Carlos Gonzalez, OF - One of the very few risks I'm taking in these keeper calls, Gonzalez has the potential to be a really exceptional power/speed guy. And two different teams used him as the cornerstone of huge trades.
  • Ubaldo Jimenez, SP - His strikeout rate has always been pretty good, and last year he took leaps forward in learning how to pitch. The upside could put him right there with guys like Lester and Cain.
Non-keepers
  • Jorge De La Rosa, SP - If Ubaldo Jimenez hadn't learned how to pitch, he'd be De La Rosa.
  • Dexter Fowler, OF - He's got good speed, but hasn't proven he can contribute anywhere else in the 5x5 system. Draft him, though.
  • Brad Hawpe, OF - Hawpe can get you .285, 25 HR, and 90 RBI. And you can get the same stats from twenty other guys.
  • Ian Stewart, 3B/2B - The potential for high power output from second base is there, but until he can give you a palatable batting average, he's not worth starting.
  • Huston Street, RP - The question isn't talent; it's opportunity and health. I don't keep closers unless they're mortal locks for a good performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers

No-brainers
  • Jonathan Broxton, RP
  • Clayton Kershaw, SP
  • Matt Kemp, OF
Keepers
  • Andre Ethier, OF - He's shown the ability to hit for power and hit for average. If he can put them together in the same season, he's as good as Lance Berkman.
Non-keepers
  • Chad Billingsley, SP - He still walks way too many guys, and his strikeout rate slipped last season. He can be a keeper, but right now, he isn't.
  • Rafael Furcal, SS - He doesn't even steal bases anymore. The lineup is so good that there's upside, but not enough.
  • Hiroki Kuroda, SP - His strikeout rate isn't good enough to warrant keeper status, but he's definitely someone to draft if you can. His ERA and WHIP are tasty.
  • James Loney, 1B - Not good enough. He's like Todd Helton except worse across the board.
  • Russell Martin, C - One bad season doesn't make Martin an unworthy acquisition, but his value dropped a ton after last year's dismal performance.
  • Manny Ramirez, OF - While his 2008 was exceptional, he sandwiched it between two just okay seasons. Manny might just be a .290, 25, 90 guy now.

San Diego Padres

No-brainers
  • Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Keepers
  • Heath Bell, RP - Good averages and good strikeout rate. The only concern is whether the Padres can win enough games to give Bell sufficient save chances.
Non-keepers
  • Chase Headley, OF - He's yet unproven, but he does have some talent. Unfortunately, he's in perhaps the worst lineup in baseball.
  • Chris Young, SP - He was worse on every level last year. You can dream, but don't expect too much of a bounce back.

San Francisco Giants

No-brainers
  • Tim Lincecum, SP
Keepers
  • Matt Cain, SP - He took big steps forward across the board last year but his strikeout rate dipped a little. Or maybe because he stopped working for the strikeout so much. Either way, he's reliably productive.
  • Pablo Sandoval, 3B - This big guy can hit. In another, non-Padre lineup, he's a no-brainer.
Non-keepers
  • Brian Wilson, RP - I don't like him, but one more year like 2009 and he'll slide into the keeper discussion.

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