My NL All-Star Ballot

Here are my votes for the National League All-Star Team:

C - Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants (.286, 8 HR, 30 RBI)
He's once again the most important hitter in a weak lineup, and he's up to the task. He has 11 more RBI than any other NL catcher.

1B - Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals (.326, 14 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB)
There's no one I'd rather have on my team, fantasy or real life. The guy is a hitting machine.

2B - Orlando Hudson, Los Angeles Dodgers (.345, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 4 SB)
It's entirely possible that I'm picking Hudson just to stray from my everlasting allegiance to Chase Utley in all his glory, but Hudson has been a hell of a pickup by the Dodgers. Honorable mention to Rickie Weeks who was on his way to by far his best year before a wrist injury ended his season.

3B - Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals (.353, 10 HR, 32 RBI)
It's always nice to see a local player make good, and Zimmerman has really turned it up this year. How about Mark Reynolds, though? The new power-speed combo guy on the block has 12 HR and 10 SB, nice work.

SS - Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins (.325, 7 HR, 21 RBI, 7 SB)
Ho hum. Another .300+, 25-25 season looks to be in the works for Hanley. How is Freddie Sanchez doing, by the way? (That's a little keeper league inside joke for you.)

OF - Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies (.349, 15 HR, 40 RBI, 4 SB)
OF - Carlos Beltran, New York Mets (.370, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 7 SB)
OF - Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals (.280, 12 HR, 33 RBI)
I think a lot of us thought Ibanez would be a fine replacement for Pat Burrell, but none of us expected this. He's currently the #1 ranked player in Yahoo's fantasy baseball. Beltran read that I thought only batting average was a weak spot for him, and he's spent all season trying to prove me wrong. Dunn was a great pickup for the Nationals, even if they're on pace to lose like 250 games this year. He's even hitting above .270, not exactly a common achievement for him.

My AL All-Star Ballot

Here are my votes for the American League All-Star Team:

C - Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians (.400, 7 HR, 30 RBI)
I like Joe Mauer a lot, and at the end of the season, he'll probably have numbers about as good as Victor's. But I use my all star vote to select the guys who have produced at the highest level thus far this season, and Martinez is just doing fantastic.

1B - Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (.381, 8 HR, 32 RBI)
Cabrera has cooled off considerably and is still hitting .381. That tells you how hot he started the season. A close second is Justin Morneau, but I took the 60 points of batting average over 4 HRs.

2B - Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays (.351, 11 HR, 35 RBI)
As much as it hurt me to not put Kinsler here (one of my fantasy studs...wait, not like that...), there's just no question that Aaron Hill is having a better first half. Everyone keeps waiting for him to slow down, but so far, he's maintained his torrid pace (and made me look foolish for trading him).

3B - Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays (.329, 11 HR, 46 RBI)
Michael Young in Texas is also having a great first half, but Longoria has more than double Young's RBI total. News flash: this kid can hit.

SS - Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays (.376, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 12 SB)
All four of the statistics listed above lead AL shortstops. And the Rays got him and Garza for Delmon Young? Well played.

OF - Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles (.364, 9 HR, 27 RBI)
OF - Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox (.301, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 4 SB)
OF - Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays (.318, 1 HR, 19 RBI, 25 SB)
Johnny Damon is also having an outstanding first half, but I'll stick with my picks. I imagine that people will look at my Crawford pick and suggest that he's less deserving because 6 of his steals came in one game, but think about how ridiculous that sounds. A guy should be marked down because he had six steals in one game? Plus, that .318 batting average didn't hit itself. Adam Jones looks like the real deal, as both sides of the big Erik Bedard trade are looking brighter this season.

Wizards Lose Lottery Again

I guess by this point we really shouldn't be surprised, but the Washington Wizards have managed to fail in the draft lottery once again. The Sacramento Kings suffered the greatest disappointment, receiving the 4th pick despite having the league's worst record, but the Wizards' bad news was almost predictable. Even when they don't get dropped in the lottery, they manage to find a way to lose. Let's roll the video tape of the past ten years:

2004 - The Wizards have the 3rd worst record in the NBA, but the lottery pushes the Clippers ahead of them, and the expansion Bobcats take the #2 pick, dropping Washington to the #5 pick. The selection there is Devin Harris, who is traded to Dallas along with Jerry Stackhouse and Christian Laettner for Antawn Jamison. Jamison has ended up being a solid acquisition, thankfully, though it looks like Harris would've been fine as well.

2003 - Washington held the league's tenth worst record, and the draft lottery went pretty much according to plan, giving the Wizards the tenth pick. So while the earlier teams were drafting LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Chris Kaman, Kirk Hinrich, and T.J. Ford, the Wizards brought Jarvis Hayes to town. Later selections included David West (18), Boris Diaw (21), and Josh Howard (29). Oops.

2002 - Once again, the Wizards hold steady at their prescribed pick (#11). This time, though, it's as if the intriguing players disappear literally right before the Wizards' selection. The last two interesting pieces to go off the board were Amare Stoudemire at nine and Caron Butler at ten (who the Wizards thankfully acquired two trades and several years later). Washington's selection? Jared Jeffries. Try not to vomit.

2001 - Ahh, the year when everything should've fallen right. The Wizards were the third worst team in the NBA, but a couple friendly (?) bounces of the ping pong balls and Washington had the number one pick. This was, of course, a year in which there was no surefire NBA talent, with the closest thing being #6 pick Shane Battier. The eventual top four picks were three high-schoolers (the Wizards' #1 overall pick Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, and Eddy Curry) and a European player (Pau Gasol). The only saving grace of drafting Brown, who was a bust on multiple levels, was that we were somehow able to trade him for Caron Butler a few years later. I still don't know why the Lakers were willing to do that trade, but I guess when you have Kobe Bryant, you think everything you touch turns to gold, and Kwame was always a guy high on potential.

2000 - Though the Wizards' pick was traded, it was top three protected, but with the 6th worst record in the league, they weren't likely to hold on to it. They ended up at number seven, and the Bulls received the pick. FYI, they took Chris Mihm with that pick.

1999 - And finally, ten years ago, the Wizards had a nice turn of events on draft day. While they dropped from sixth to seventh as a result of Charlotte lucking into the #3 pick (and Baron Davis), Washington was able to nab Richard Hamilton. He was a productive scorer for the Wizards for several years, and ended up being one of three former Wizards/Bullets to be in the starting lineup for the 2003-2004 NBA Champion Detroit Pistons (Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace were the other two).

The early draft projections have Arizona State guard James Harden or Arizona forward Jordan Hill going to the Wizards, but I've also heard that the Wizards' cap situation has them itching to trade the pick if they can. All I can say is that the $120 million man Gilbert Arenas had better be healthy this season, or public opinion may turn in a hurry. With Arenas healthy, the Wizards are a playoff team. If he can't stay on the court again, we're probably looking at another bottom 5 finish.

For the Capitals, 2009 is Only the Beginning

So you woke up this morning with a severe hangover, only to find out that the terrible nightmare of a blow out by the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins was actually true. Well, don’t get too down. The Caps have one of the youngest teams in the league, with a great core of young players and a bright future.

To prove that I’m not just blowing smoke, here are five reasons to get excited for 2010:

1. Player Development

Over the 2008-09 campaign many players made huge strides in development.

Mike Green added 13 goals to his ‘08 total making him the first defenseman since Kevin Hatcher in ‘93 to accomplish a 30 goal season. In addition, he improved tremendously in the defensive zone and was an impressive +24 and a legitimate Norris candidate. I know what you’re saying. “He was so terrible in the Pittsburgh series.” First, let me assure you, the regular season Mike Green is the real deal. I’ll write later on and explain why he looked so bad. Like Mike Green, Backstrom saw a spike in his point total. He ended the season as one of four Capitals to average over a point per game. The average age of these “Young Guns” (Ovi, Semin, Backstrom, Green)? Twenty-four years old. These players should only get better with more experience.

On top of the stars, Washington has several role players who have become more and more valuable to the team. Brooks Laich saw a major jump in goals and points, and Dave Steckel was among the five best Caps in these playoffs. This guy gave us tough goals, a great face-off percentage and was a very solid penalty killer. And these are just a few of many guys who I can see taking leaps forward next year. Eric Fehr, Tomas Fleischmann, and Jay Beagle could all be second line players in the near future.

2. Simeon Varlamov

When I saw this guy play during the regular season, I liked what I saw. Even so, I was as stunned as anybody at how well Varlamov played in these playoffs. Varlamov's save on Crosby during game one of the Penguins series is exhibit A. He has shown he is not shaken by hostile environments and situations. He’s also shown an unwillingness to quit on a play. I can recount several times during the Pittsburgh series in which Varlamov’s drive and determination led to spectacular saves. Jose Theodore had a goals-against average of 2.87, ranking him outside of the top 30 goalies this season, yet he was 12th in wins. If Varlamov is what he is showing us these playoffs, the effect on a team that had franchise record 108 points in 2008-2009 should be substantial. While certainly game seven was unpleasant, you trust the twelve good games he had more than the one terrible one.

3. Farm Hands

Washington has three impact players in the minors who could see substantial playing time next season, and are part of the continued youth movement that figures to carry the Caps forward.

Michal Neuvirth
While I think everyone is thinking of what is the quickest way to get Theodore out of town and anoint Varlamov as the heir, Neuvirth might have something to say about it. He’s played brilliantly for the AHL Hershey Bears over the last month of the season, including back to back shutouts against the Baby Pens in game six and seven of their Eastern Division playoff series. Some scouts like him more than Varlamov, but all scouts think that, between the two of them, the Caps are set at goaltender for a few years.

Karl Alzner
Alzner came up several times for the Capitals during the ‘09 season, and while there were games that he struggled, he has shown to be plenty talented to play in the NHL. He’s also cool and collected, makes smart plays, and rarely takes a penalty (2 PIM in 30 games). He does not have the offensive upside of other Caps prospects, but he has all-star level defensive potential. Adding him to a group that includes Morrison, Green, Poti and Erskine gives the Caps plenty of depth at a position that’s tough to fill out.

John Carlson
Another top defenseman prospect in the Capitals system is John Carlson. The Capitals front office loves this guy’s upside and talent so much that there was real discussion of him making the team out of camp. Instead, they sent him to OHL to continue to develop. Carlson did not disappoint, racking up 76 points in 59 games, and 22 points in 14 playoff games. In fact, Carlson was sometimes deployed on the wing during power plays, which speaks to how well he works in the offensive zone. He projects as a top 4 defenseman with a lot of offensive upside, and Capitals fans have to like the idea of adding another offensive weapon to the blue line.

4. Cap Space

While the Caps are weighed down by a Michael Nylander contract that reminds you of Denny Neagle’s for the Colorado Rockies (a little baseball reference for you), they actually have a pretty good cap situation. Sergei Fedorov and Viktor Kozlov come off the books this year and free up $6.5 million in cap room (some of which I think Caps fans would be happy to allocate right back to those guys, but hopefully at a discount). In addition, Theodore has just one more year on his contract, and Nylander’s drops to three million, giving us another $6.5 million in cap room. This kind of cap room could help Washington keep together the very good young core of players we have. General Manager George McPhee has also proven himself very capable of finding good veterans to mix with this young team.

5. GM GM

This point is obviously related to #4, since the decision on how to spend cap money will belong to George McPhee. In a town that has perfected terrible management and managed to frustrate two very large and loyal fan bases (Orioles and Redskins), the Capitals seem to have it right with McPhee. His trades at last year’s deadline have helped the Capitals to two Southeast Division titles. In addition, while some might look at his decision of not making a move at the deadline this year as a misstep, I see it as a smart decision. Chris Pronger was the object of Washington’s affection at the deadline. The reported asking price for Pronger was at least two of the following young players: Varlamov, Alzner and Carlson. Varlamov carried the Caps to game seven against the Penguins, and if you look up at where I talk about the team’s top prospects, you’ll find Alzner and Carlson. When you add in that Pronger has something of an albatross of a contract, the smart long-term decision was to stand pat.

I look at this Caps team and I see Pittsburgh two years ago. The team is very good, but not all of its pieces are in place just yet. They obviously didn’t have the consistency and maturity they needed to get deep into the playoffs. Longtime local hockey analyst Al Koken has said all year that this Caps team is fantastic and exciting to watch, but the best is still a year or two away. After seeing over 25 games live this year and a ton more on TV, I’m willing to make the same judgment.

Get ready Eastern Conference…these Capitals are going to be around for a while.

Game 7, Caps vs. Pens

A rare hockey post!

As some of you already knew, I attended Game 7 of the Penguins/Capitals second round playoff series on Wednesday night. You may have seen the final score (6-2), and if possible, the game was actually less competitive than the score would indicate. However, it offered an experience that I won't soon forget. Let me offer you a little run down of the evening.

My brother and I headed for the Metro straight after work. We decided that we'd head down early and eat in DC, with the hope of avoiding some of the evening rush. We accomplished that for the most part, and ate dinner at Capital City Brewing. They have a couple of microbrews, and they gave Eddie the wrong one for his first glass, so I was able to taste three of them. They were all decent, but none of them were fantastic, and I'd have preferred a Leinenkugel's Sunset Wheat over any of them. It was good enough, as was the food, and while nothing was particularly worth mentioning, we headed into the game ready to cheer on the Caps.

Unfortunately, the feeling wouldn't last. An early breakaway by Alex Ovechkin that he wasn't able to plant might've been the difference in the game, but with how out of hand things got, I have a tough time thinking that one goal would've changed the course of the game. A phantom slashing penalty was called against Shaone Morrisonn (I say phantom, but when you're at the game, you don't get replays, so it might've been totally legit), and the Penguins scored on the ensuing power play. Then they scored again, like ten seconds later, and you could see a lump in the throat of everyone in the stands.

Pittsburgh scored two more goals in the second period before coach Bruce Boudreau pulled youngster goalie Simeon Varlamov, but the blame can't really all be put on Varlamov. The goalie can only play the pucks that come his way, and with 16 shots in the first period, he was seeing way too many shots. Give credit to the Penguins for that; they found a chink in the Capitals' armor, and were able to drive a pike right through it.

My brother pointed out a specific problem with the way the Caps were playing, and logically, it sounds right. The weakest part of Varlamov's game is his ability to play the puck around the back of the net and start the offense. So, he often would just tap it to try to get the puck under control, or not play it at all. That meant that Capitals defensemen had to come down and start playing the puck from a loose position, rather than off a goalie pass. The Penguins were able to exploit this by constantly challenging the loose pucks in Washington's zone, and were often able to get scoring chances off of panicked or lazy passes this way. Hopefully that's something that the Caps will be able to work on with Varly in the offseason.

Anyways, the game went on, with the Caps decidedly out of it. They scored a couple of goals to give the fans something to cheer about, but the Penguins played a lot of keep away, and were able to tack on a fifth and sixth goal to put it away. My brother and I were disappointed, but we weren't leaving. It was the playoffs, it was game seven, and it would be the last hockey the Caps would play for five months, and we were going to get our fill.

With about three minutes to go, the crowd started to stir, and little chants started to surface around the arena. Within another minute, the whole stadium was rocking with a loud, "Let's go Caps!" cheer, and raucous applause. Washington wasn't even playing particularly well, and the chant didn't waver between offensive and defensive possessions. As the last few seconds ticked off the clock, the roar became deafening, and with the final horn, you'd have thought the game was being played in Pittsburgh.

The players collected at their respective benches, and the fans quieted down a little, but stayed in the stands, still cheering and clapping. As I looked around the stadium, and onto the ice where the players from both teams were now shaking hands, I felt something I don't know if I've ever felt before.

Pride. I was proud of my sports team, and proud of all the other fans in the arena. We had come out to support our hometown team, and even though they played their worst game of the playoffs, we were going to do our part just the same.

As a couple of Penguins players were being interviewed, the Caps collected on the ice, and the fans began to crescendo again. Ovechkin was coming across the ice slowly, visibly saddened at the Caps being eliminated, and it was as if the stadium just wanted to do our part to bring these guys up. The fans started going bonkers, and Ovechkin looked up and raised his stick. The rest of the Caps put their sticks in the air, and the Verizon Center shook with the thunderous response from the crowd. We were all sad about losing the game, but the brief connection between the players and fans was something that reminds me why people love sports.

Yes, it's fun to watch virtuosity, and with Ovechkin, Gilbert Arenas, and Sean Taylor, we've had our opportunities to see great players over the past several years. But the real benefit of sports is what we all want out of life: to be part of something bigger than ourselves. Most of us don't have that opportunity in our jobs, or in our social lives. We do what we do, and maybe we do some good here and there, but a lot of people continue to lack that sense of belonging. There are rare moments when you can get that feeling. That's why, in retrospect, even if I had known that the Caps were going to lose, I wouldn't have sold my ticket for $300, or even $400 (when you get to $500, I start to waver). That feeling is something I won't ever forget, and something I'll strive after for a long time.

So, once more, as a send off for a very good season, and a call to arms for everyone to stick around on the bandwagon through to next year...

C-A-P-S! Caps! Caps! Caps!

Super Monitor (TV?) Deal

Hey folks, here's a big time deal on a monitor that looks like it can be used as a television as long as you're not using coaxial cable as its input. It's a 42" screen for $580, and it's made by Westinghouse, not some joke brand. If I had any kind of job, I'd buy this thing. I recommend those of you with jobs check it out.

http://www.tigerdirect.com/applications/SearchTools/item-details.asp?EdpNo=4633249&Sku=W330-4210

Black and White Talk

Yes, I'm afraid to say it's that kind of black and white that I'm going to talk about.

I was in Atlantic City this weekend, and while I was in a drunken haze for the better part of the trip, I was mostly sober on Saturday afternoon before the NFL draft. I was watching a preview show on ESPN (one of several thousand ESPN has run since the Super Bowl). The show featured five analysts: Mike Tirico, Tom Jackson, Cris Carter, Ron Jaworski, and another white guy who I'm not familiar with. The candor was relaxed and jovial, and everyone on the set was getting along and joking.

Some reference was made to, I believe, an NBA playoff game that was being played that evening, and Carter said he was going to the game. He also said he had four tickets, to which Tirico asked, "There's five of us here, who are you taking?" Carter's response, which was responded to with laughter and smiles, was, "Well, you know I gotta take care of the brothers first."

Let me start by saying that I, personally, don't have a problem with that comment. As I said, they were all laughing and having fun, it was obviously not a malicious remark, and I generally don't find anything offensive. My problem is not that the comment was innately inappropriate.

My problem is that, had a white guy said, "Well, you know I gotta take care of the white boys first," he'd have been fired immediately, and probably beaten up. My problem is that this is the television station that spent several days decrying Don Imus and Rush Limbaugh (neither of whom I like, but both of whom got jobbed) for their insensitivities towards race. My problem is that ESPN has set a standard that any sort of racial discussion that reflects poorly on black people is a bad idea, and only Kornheiser and Wilbon can get away with it without bringing down the wrath from on high. But when you say that you're going to "take care of the brothers," that's not a problem.

I did a Google search for the phrase along with Cris Carter, and got zero hits. Zero hits. Not a single person on a site indexed by Google has made mention of this incident. Forty million bloggers in the country and not a single person has anything to say about Carter's comments.

[begin political rant]

I'm in favor of free speech everywhere. I get uncomfortable any time you restrict/discipline someone for saying something people find unpalatable, because how long will it be before you get in trouble for stating an opinion? How long before I get disciplined for what I say? It's not like I've never taken a controversial stand; hell, I'm one of like eleven people who doesn't care at all that steroids were such a big part of baseball for so many years.

My government is supposed to protect my right to say things like Cris Carter said. I'm happy he hasn't been disciplined (and won't be), but I want that same courtesy extended to people of every ethnicity, or no ethnicity at all. I want everyone to have the right to say whatever they want to say, whenever they want to say it. If you offend someone and you didn't mean to, you can apologize. And if you did mean to offend that someone, you shouldn't be expected to apologize.

I leave you with a quote from my favorite show, The West Wing:

Josh: What do you say about a government that goes out of its way to protect even citizens that try to destroy it?
Toby: God bless America.

[end political rant]

I'm happy to protect Cris Carter's right to say he's going to give his basketball tickets to "the brothers," as long as we're also protecting Rush Limbaugh's right to speculate that Donovan McNabb gets favorable media attention because he's a productive black quarterback.

And in the word of Phil Collins, "That's all."

Re-Seeding: A Really Stupid Idea

I was discussing the NHL playoffs with a friend, and he mentioned that the teams in the Eastern Conference who had won their series already would have to wait until Tuesday night to find out who they'll play in the second round. I was confused, and asked for clarification: "What are you talking about? The Bruins were the #1 seed, the Penguins the #4 seed. They'll play each other."

"No," he says. "If the Rangers beat the Caps, they'll play the Bruins. Otherwise, the Bruins will play the winner of the other game." I was astonished. The NHL re-seeds teams after the first round. The NFL does the same thing and I don't like it. I enjoy being able to fill in a bracket when talking about playoff predictions. I like being able to map out the "road to the Super Bowl" for different teams, and with re-seeding, you can't really do that until after the first round games have been played.

What are the advantages of re-seeding? No, seriously, I'm asking. What does it do? It ensures that the highest-seeded team remaining will play the lowest-seeded team remaining in the second round. So, for example, if Anaheim completes the upset against #1 seeded San Jose, their reward will be to head to Detroit and face off against the third best team in hockey this season. I think that's just dumb. By beating San Jose, the Ducks should earn the opportunity to play against the 4/5 winner, not the opportunity to get thrown up against the boards by the Red Wings.

And that's not even the best argument against re-seeding your playoff teams. Think about the best postseason in sports: the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Tournament. You may know it as March Madness, and it's one of the most widespread and exciting playoff in the world. Everyone fills out a bracket (or twelve), everyone checks scores all day long at work, everyone goes out to bars and restaurants to watch some of the games, everyone has something to talk about to everyone else between Selection Sunday and the national championship on Monday, three weeks later. It's as important as the Super Bowl when it comes to market penetration into people's everyday lives.

Now, add in a re-seeding mechanism, where #1 seeds would play the lowest seed remaining in their bracket. What happens? You lose the brackets. You lose the opportunity to project matchups through the middle rounds, because you don't know who will be playing who. By making that change, you'd be essentially crippling the marketing machine that is Bracketology. There is, of course, no way it would ever happen, but for some reason, the NHL and NFL have both decided it's a good idea. I just don't see how you gain anything from it, and you take away a little of the sports talk radio discussion you could have on it, by eliminating the possibility of a "full playoff preview show," where the commentators predict the playoffs all the way through.

Hmm...sports talk radio discussion...we'll have to get into that again sometime.

AL East Preview?

So here we are, about 10% of the way through the 2009 MLB season and, in classic Joe & Joe style, we haven't finished our season preview. So rather than just pretend that these games haven't been played, we're going to change things up a little bit. Instead of a formal "preview", this post is going to focus on whether or not the first three weeks of the season was a true representation of each team. With the Blue Jays off to a hot start, the defending AL champion Rays struggling and the Boston/New York rivalry prominently involved it should be a fun column.


Toronto Blue Jays (Currently 13-6, 1st place)

The Jays have started the season red hot at the plate and it has propelled them to the best record in the American League. The biggest surprise has been the return of Aaron Hill, who missed most of the 2008 season with a concussion. Hill is hitting .375 with 5 home runs, well above his lifetime .289 lifetime average. The veteran players in the middle of the Toronto lineup have struggled out of the gate (Alex Rios and Vernon Wells are both hitting under .270), but the bottom half of the Jays lineup have definitely made up for it. Adam Lind is crushing the baseball in his first full-time role. Despite the fact that I would have bashed them as "over the hill" veterans before the season started, Scott Rolan and Lyle Overbay have both returned to their 2006 selves. With big-time prospect Travis Snider hitting well at the bottom of the order, the Blue Jays offense has definitely surprised early in 2009.

The Toronto pitching staff has been decimated by injuries early in 2009. Starters Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum are probably both lost for the year with shoulder injuries requiring surgery. 4th starter Jesse Litsch is currently out with a forearm strain and Ricky Romero is also missing time. In the bullpen, BJ Ryan has been placed on the DL after struggling with command and velocity and he is joined by effective right hander Casey Janssen. Simply put, the Blue Jays pitching staff is just too thin and it's going to start catching up to them in the form of three run homers.

Conclusion: Toronto's offense has overachieved, while they have gotten by with a patchwork pitching staff, so it's tough to expect the Jays to keep racking up the wins. In fact, despite the hot start, I expect them to finish just below .500.

Boston Red Sox (Currently 11-6, 2st place)

The Red Sox have basically performed as expected to start 2009. Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia have performed nominally. David Ortiz has struggled, but he also struggled early in 2008 before catching fire later in the season. Kevin Youkilis has been ridiculous, batting .444 and getting on base at a .551 clip. Expect him to cool off at some point, although since he anchors my fantasy team, I'm staying optimistic. Jason Bay and JD Drew have been about what Boston fans have expected, while Mike Lowell is healthy and raking at the bottom or the lineup. Young shortstop Jed Lowrie may be lost for the year with a wrist injury, but Boston has enough fire power that this is barely a footnote.

The BoSox pitching staff has been a little underwhelming, but good enough. Josh Beckett and Brad Penny have both had one bad outing, which has skewed their numbers. Tim Wakefield has had the knuckleball dancing early in 2009 and has been terrific. Jon Lester struggled in his first two starts, but looks to have settled down, while Justin Masterson has done a nice job transitioning from the bullpen to replace a fatigued Daisuke Matsuzaka.

In the bullpen, Jonathan Papelbon has been overpowering hitters, as usual. While setup men like Hideki Okajima and Takashi Saito have struggled, Manny Delcarmen has been lights out and usurpted the 8th inning role.

Conclusion: Boston is pretty much on course, expect them to win the division.

New York Yankees (Currently 9-8, 3st place)

Don't we do this every year? The Yankees get out to a slow start, half the sports writers in America write them off before June and then the Yanks reel off 8 straight wins to get right back into the mix. The New York front office has invested a lot of money into this Yankees team, and it's going to pay off sooner rather than later.

The New York offense has been good out of the gates. It's tough to say whether or not the new Yankee stadium is inflating numbers, but the Yankees are definitely hitting. Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon are swinging hot bats at the top of the lineup. Mark Teixeira has struggled in pinstripes, but he is simply too good of a hitter to hit .235 all season. Where Teixeira has floundered, former underachievers Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano have picked up the slack. Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui have been OK. And of course there is that A-Rod guy who is scheduled to come back in a few weeks...he should help.

The Yankees pitching staff is kinda like the U.S. banking industry: they are just too big to fail. CC Sabathia has stumbled a couple times, but should still win 15+ games. A.J. Burnett has also struggled, but if he can stay healthy, he'll be effective. Andy Pettitte has been sharp this spring, but the Yankees need to be using him more like a #5 starter than a #3. The guy who should be their #3, Chien-Ming Wang has been terrible, where all New York really needs is for him to be "not terrible". Joba Chamberlain has been pretty effective in three starts, but expect him to have some natural growing pains. Look for a youngster like Phil Hughes to get a shot at a rotation spot.

Conclusion: New York is fine, I'm guessing that they win the Wild Card.

Baltimore Orioles (Currently 8-10, 4st place)

I've semi-adopted the Orioles as one of my teams. I think it has to do with several of my friends being O's fans, watching plenty of their games on local TV and Baltimore filling the underdog role in the AL East. Unfortunately for Oriole fans, I'm pretty sure that they are going to continue being the underdog for the next few years.

The Baltimore bats have definitely shown up to start the 2009 season, with veterans Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff anchoring the Oriole lineup, while youngster Adam "Don't Call Me Pacman" Jones is growing into role he has only previously hinted at (seriously, if you go to a Baltimore game this year, don't get drunk and yell "Pacman!" or Jones will turn around and give you a wicked stare, ummm, or so I hear).

Despite all the offensive improvements, Baltimore won't take any steps forward until the pitching improves. The Orioles starting rotation may be the worst in the big leagues. Jeremy Guthrie is a legitimate starter, but he definitely shouldn't be your #1. Unfortunately for the O's, that's the role he has to fill. From Guthrie, there is a sharp drop off. Koji Uehara is a 34-year-old Japanese import, Adam Eaton has never really gotten it together in his 10 year career, and Mark Hendrickson is tall (pretty much the most positive thing I could write about him). This is a pitching staff that could easily drag the Orioles to 100 loses.

Conclusion: Once the bats cool off, the O's are sunk. Clearly the worst team in the division.

Tampa Bay Rays (Currently 7-11, 5st place)

I've got news for you Rays fans (all 1,452 of you), you aren't going back to the playoffs (see, this was a much bolder prediction 3 weeks ago, dammit, I wish I wasn't so lazy). Anyway, 2008 was a magical year for the Rays, and a natural recession could easily be expected.

The Tampa lineup remains mostly unchanged from last year (they did upgrade to DH Pat Burrell) and I think they will produce about the same results, if not get slightly better. The Rays starting rotation is also mostly the same as the 2008 squad and should get better with another year of seasoning and the addition of superstar-in-the-making David Price. So with an improved lineup and starting rotation, why do I think the Rays will miss the playoffs? The short answer is their bullpen (again, this would be a bolder prediction if the top two Tampa set-up men didn't currently have ERAs over 5.0).

It's not that I think the bullpen will be awful in 2009, it just won't be as incredible as it was in 2008. It's tough to see Troy Percival slamming the door another 28 times in 2009, especially since he has already flirted with some injury problems. Top set-up man Dan Wheeler had an incredible 2008, posting a 3.12 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and a .183 BAA. This just isn't going to happen again for a guy who is a career 4.04 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .249 BAA. As good as Dan Wheeler was in 2008, Grant Balfour was even better, posting 1.54 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .143 BAA. Want another example? J.P. Howell was 2.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .194 BAA. That's three guys with opposing batting averages under .200, that's amazing; amazing and impossible to be replicated in 2009.

Conclusion: The Rays are going to be slightly better than they were in 2008, with the exception of their bullpen, which will be more 'average' than 'historically dominant'. This alone pushes them out of the top spot in the division and closer to a .500 record.

NFL Draft Preview

First things first, we here at Joe and Joe Sports know almost nothing about the NFL draft. Neither of us watches very much college football, and we certainly don't watch enough to be able to judge which college player translates to a better professional football player. That's for the college football acolytes, the ones who worship at the altar of college football. We like the pro game, and we're interested in how our teams are going to look next year.

Given that, we still enjoy the NFL draft, because that's when teams make wholesale changes to their rosters, adding several impact players and other guys whose names you'll hear for at least a couple months, and potentially for years to come. Chris Horton was a solid contributor for the Redskins last year, and he came from the 7th round.

So while I can't offer firsthand opinions on any of the guys I'm about to talk about, I can tell you that I've read a lot of material on them, and on the teams in the top 15, and I'm excited to predict the first 15 picks of the NFL draft. Alright chumps, let's do this!

1. Detroit Lions - Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia. The Lions really can't afford to foul up this pick. They were the first 16-loss team ever, and they've got a tremendous recent history of blowing high draft picks. The rule that I keep hearing is that if you don't have a franchise quarterback and one is available when you draft, you take him. Daunte Culpepper is not a franchise quarterback, so there you go.
   
2. St. Louis Rams - Jason Smith, OT, Baylor. I've found that I have to trust NFL scouts to figure out who the best offensive linemen are, because I just have no idea. Smith is the consensus best OL in the draft, and there's talk he may go #1 if the Lions can't come to a pre-draft contract agreement with Stafford. I doubt that happens, but if Stafford doesn't go to Detroit, he'll be picked here. The top two picks are a virtual lock.
   
3. Kansas City Chiefs - Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia. I imagine I'm not the only person interested to see how Scott Pioli acts without the grim reaper Bill Belichick looking over his shoulder. My thinking is that he'll stick with a lot of the same tactics that were so successful in New England, and New England had a very strong offensive line to protect Tom Brady and new Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel. Monroe is a top-tier offensive lineman (so I'm told), and since Smith will almost certainly be off the board, this is where KC will go.
   
4. Seattle Seahawks - Mark Sanchez, QB, USC. I'm actually thinking that my ill-fated Redskins will trade up and acquire this pick so that they can pick Sanchez and the Seahawks can take a running back, but I can't realistically predict trades, so I'm going with the draft board they give me. Even with the Seahawks holding onto this pick, though, Sanchez still makes a lot of sense. He's a potential franchise quarterback, and Matt Hasselbeck seems to be on the back end of his career.
   
5. Cleveland Browns - Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest. The talk is that Braylon Edwards will be traded, and that, combined with Donte Stallworth killing a guy while drinking and driving, means that the Browns will have a very weak WR corps. That makes Michael Crabtree an intriguing pick here, but the reality is that the Browns are back in rebuild mode, and Curry falls under the category of "best available." He's among the best players, and he's also one of the best bets to be a productive player immediately and for a long time. He's a guy to build a defense around, and Cleveland could sure use one of those.
   
6. Cincinnati Bengals - Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech. Crabtree isn't Calvin Johnson, but in all fairness, nobody is Calvin Johnson. What Crabtree can be is a great possession wide receiver who can give the Bengals the kind of player they lost when T.J. Houshmandzadeh signed with the Seahawks. Say what you will about Chad Johnson, but I have to believe the ability is still there, and Crabtree can slide into his role in a strong passing offense right away.
   
7. Oakland Raiders - Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri. The Raiders have paid a lot to acquire a couple of disappointing wide receivers recently (Randy Moss, Javon Walker), so it shouldn't be surprising that they'd go a different route to acquire receiving talent. Maclin is faster the Crabtree, and is the consensus #2 receiver in the draft. And if you're going to give a ton of money to a quarterback (as they did with Jamarcus Russell a couple years ago), you'd better give him some targets. Maclin should be able to come in and contribute immediately.
   
8. Jacksonville Jaguars - B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College. Raji fits into most systems because he's a big, wide defensive tackle who can slide perfectly into a 3-4 scheme. He's plenty effective in a 4-3 as well, and Jacksonville runs both at times. Raji would give them the flexibility to choose their scheme based on situation rather than personnel. Raji is one of the wild cards of this draft; he could realistically go anywhere from 4 through 12. So I figured, why not put him smack dab in the middle of 4 and 12? PS: If the Jags hadn't signed Torry Holt, they might've reached for a second-tier WR here, but as is, I seriously doubt it.
   
9. Green Bay Packers - Andre Smith, OT, Alabama. It's fair to say that seeing Smith drop to this spot would be something of a surprise, but character issues seem to have more and more impact these days. Still, the talent is there to be as good as any offensive lineman in the draft, and Green Bay would definitely like to solidify their offensive line to allow their potent passing game plenty of time to shred opposing defenses. I don't think they'll be scared off by his skipping out of the combine, but you never can tell with the "classic" franchises. If they do pass on Smith, I'd look for Tyson Jackson to be the pick here.
   
10. San Francisco 49ers - Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State. Maybin is a fantastic athlete with a lot of upside, but he's something of a project. Thankfully, the 49ers have plenty of time to wait. Brian Orakpo is a more polished player, but Maybin projects as the better player, and because San Francisco isn't going to be winning this year (sorry Niner fans, both of you), the long-term move is the smarter one.
    
11. Buffalo Bills - Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU. Jackson is a balanced defensive end, capable of stopping both the run and the pass, and he'll fit into most teams' schemes. Jackson is the kind of player who might not register as much over the course of his career with big stats, but people in football will know he's a game-changer, and I expect he'll be selected for multiple Pro Bowls. The Bills also love tight end Brandon Pettigrew, but he's not an elite player like the tight ends who've been taken in the first 15 picks in recent years. The impression I get is the Bills would love to trade down a few picks, get some more picks, and nab Pettigrew. If they can't do that, I believe they'll go with the better value pick and take Jackson.
    
12. Denver Broncos - Brian Orakpo, LB, Texas. I believe that the Broncos are hoping and praying that somehow Mark Sanchez will fall into their laps, but I have to think that if Sanchez slips past #4, someone will take him or trade up to nab him. If that's not the Broncos, I think they address their lack of playmaking ability on the defensive side of the ball and take Orakpo. He's a physical freak, he's intense, and he's a fantastic tackler. I'm not going to call him Ray Lewis, but that's really just because Lewis is an inside linebacker, and Orakpo plays outside. Seriously, he could be extremely good.
    
13. Washington Redskins - Rey Maualuga, LB, USC. I feel like it's been too long since my Redskins went batty for a player and drafted him way earlier than he ought to have been drafted, so why not now? Maualuga could certainly be a productive player, but there are concerns about his maturity that would scare off some teams. But to the owner who signed a 32-year-old Deion Sanders for $56 million over seven years, intangibles are overrated. I'm not wild about it, but should the draft pan out the way I've predicted, this is probably what we'll see at this pick.
    
14. New Orleans Saints - Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State. As much as I'm sure Drew Brees loved throwing the ball 635 times last season, I imagine most people in the Saints' organization would rather they didn't have to throw that often. New Orleans has spent big money and draft picks on improving their secondary without much success, and so it makes sense that they'd be looking there again in this draft. Jenkins may not be fast enough to play corner in the NFL, but he's got all the tools to be a longtime starting safety. If any other team needs a corner, though, they're probably looking at Jenkins, so the Saints may have to settle for Tyson Jackson or Everette Brown and hope that the increased push up front will help stifle opponents' passing games.
    
15. Houston Texans - Clay Matthews, LB, USC. First things first, Clay's uncle Bruce is on the Texans' coaching staff, so you have to think that boosts his chances of landing here. But in addition to that, Matthews is a fiery player and from all accounts, a pretty good teammate. I don't know why, but I get the impression that the Texans have a lot of good teammates already, and in football (the ultimate team sport), a team is most successful when the players are all looking out for each other. Of course, if Jenkins is still on the board, the teammate bull goes out the window and they draft the best DB in the draft.
    

So there you have it, Joe and Joe Sports' official predictions for the NFL draft. The draft starts at 4:00 PM, and though I'll be in Atlantic City, I'm hoping to watch at least through the Redskins' pick, and make as many prop bets as possible with the people around me. Prop bets are the lifeblood of America.

NL Central Preview

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs and their fans have been eagerly anticipating the arrival of the 2009 season ever since they were rapidly dismissed by the Dodgers in a 2008 Wild Card match up. While the Cubs are loaded with talent, North-siders expecting another 97 win season are probably going to be disappointed.

On the surface, the Cubs lineup looks absolutely stacked. Leadoff hitter Alfonso Soriano is one of the elite power/speed players in the league, but with an OBP below .350 he should really be hitting lower in the lineup. Shortstop Ryan Theriot should be hitting first and setting the table for the bashers hitting behind him. Speaking of those bashers, Derrick Lee, Milton Bradley and Aramis Ramirez look like they could be the best 3-4-5 in the NL, but they don't come without warts. Among those warts: All three are on the wrong side of 30, Lee and Ramirez appear to have diminishing skills and Bradley has only been over 450 ABs once in his nine year career. And of course there is the concern that Bradley has fought (either physically or verbally or both) with all of the following: managers, umpires, GMs, fans, teammates, announcers and the police. These should be more than small concerns for Lou Piniella. One concern Piniella doesn't have is his catcher. Geovany Soto established himself as one of the game's elite young talents in 2009 and should slide into the middle of the Cubs lineup if anyone stumbles. Kosuke Fukudome and Mike Fontenot leave a lot to be desired at the bottom of the order, especially considering one of these spots could have been filled by Mark DeRosa, had he not been traded to Cleveland.

The Cubs starting rotation also has a lot of luster, but isn't the most trustworthy group. Carlos Zambrano can unquestionably pitch like an ace, but is legitimately nuts, not exactly a trait you want from your #1. Ryan Dempster's transition from closer to starter in 2008 was much, much better than could have been expected and I would not expect Dempster to post another sub 3.0 ERA, well,... ever. Rich Harden has ace stuff, but has only posted one season with more than 128 innings in his 6 year career. Ted Lilly is the about as reliable as they come and, frankly, the Cubs would be much better off if they had 5 Ted Lillys.

The Chicago bullpen is solid and doesn't seem to be as shaky as the rest of the team. Recently crowned closer Kevin Gregg has a solid track record and has been lights out in spring training. Carlos Marmol is the best setup man in the game and gives Lou Piniella an option to get out of almost any late inning jam. Lanky righty Jeff Samardzija had an effective rookie season, while Aaron Heilman, Chad Gaudin and Neal Cotts bring plenty of experience to the Cubs bullpen (that's what you say about guys when they aren't exactly good)

Projected Record: 88-74

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds 2009 season will ultimately be decided by whether or not their young talent finally takes the step from elite prospect to elite major league player.

The offense has plenty of pop in the middle of the order with Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion all having 30+ home run potential. Ideally, Votto and Bruce, both in their second full year in the bigs, would continue their development and allow manager Dusty Baker to slide Brandon Phillips up to the number 2 hole to better utilize his speed. New comer Willy Tavaras will be a terror on the basepaths if he can actually get on base more that 30% of the time, a pretty pathetic number considering Tavaras has zero power. Ramon Hernandez comes over from Baltimore to take the catching duties and has the possibility of adding 20+ homers. Alex Gonzalez plays shortstop... and I was going to rag on him, but he did hit .272 with 16 homers in 2008, which for the number 8 spot in the NL aint that bad.

The Cincy rotation is pretty solid and has the potential to be great. Aaron Harang ran into some trouble in 2008, but I would expect him to return to form as the Reds ace in 2009. Edinson Volquez is the present and future of the Reds rotation and with another year of seasoning could be mentioned in the same sentence as the Santanas, Lincecums and Peavys of the NL. The other young fireballer of the Reds staff is Johnny Cueto who, like the Reds young hitters, could be really dominant if he takes the next step. Bronson Arroyo will eat up some innings and Micah Owings may be adequate, but if either of these guys stumble expect big-time prospect Homer Bailey to get the call up from triple-A.

The Reds bullpen is seasoned (see: old) and without much potential. Francisco Cordero is coming off a successful first season as the Reds closer and is a reliable 9th inning option for Dusty Baker. Primary setup men David Weathers and Arthur Rhodes were both born in the 1960s. Not sure I could put a lot of faith in them.

Ultimately I see the Reds having some more growing pains this year, but growing enough to be on the happy side of .500 for the first time since 2000.

Projected Record: 84-78

Houston Astros

The Astros were a slightly better than average team in 2008 and didn't do a whole lot to get better in 2009. I could break down their pretty decent lineup or tear apart the unreliability of their pitching staff, but is that really necessary? Wouldn't that just be wasting both my time and yours? Of course it would, but I'm doing it anyway.

The Houston lineup is pretty good and will probably keep the Astros in alot of games. The top of the lineup is shaky at best, with Kaz Matsui leading off and Michael Borne hitting second. If Matsui can keep the anal fissures under control this season (sidebar: seriously, did we really need to know that Matsui missed alot of 2008 games due to that particular ailment, I mean, couldn't the Astros have just lied and said it was a hernia) and if Michael Borne can actually get on base once in a while (a pathetic .288 OBP in 2008), they are probably goning to score alot of runs. Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman hit in the middle of the Astros lineup and do it very, very well. Both Lee and Berkman slugged over .560 in 2008 and both hit for plenty of power without sacrificing average. Superstar-in-the-making Hunter Pence will have a cushy spot in the lineup hitting behind Lee and Berkman, and if he shows any more development he will be a top tier player in the NL. Miguel Tejada, Ivan Rodriguez and Geoff Blum are unreliable options at the bottom of the lineup (not to mention defensive liabilities) and the Astros need to start getting replacements ready.

The Astros pitching situation will probably be the team's Achilles heel in 2009. Roy Oswalt has been terrific in his eight year Houston career (never posting an ERA higher than 3.54 and racking up six seasons with more than 14 wins), but there isn't a lot after that. Wandy Rodriguez developed nicely in 2008, but as any fantasy player knows, he can't be trusted on the road... a characteristic I'd rather not have in my #2. Brian Moehler would be a nice #5 starter for the Astros, but he's going to have to pitch like a middle of the rotation guy, since Houston has Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton at the back of their rotation. Even the most optimistic GMs would have a hard time penciling Ortiz or Hampton in for more than 25 starts , so I'm not quite sure what Houston is doing here.

The Houston bullpen is decent to above average, but even if they are incredible I don't see the Astros as a playoff caliber team. Jose Valverde is a quality closer, really nothing we didn't know. Other bullpen options Tim Byrdak and Doug Brocail are were both terrific in 2008, but are definitely fighting father time. Other relievers (Chris Sampson and Wesley Wright) aren't really worth discussing and, like I said above, it doesn't really matter anyway.

Projected Record: 78-84

Milwaukee Brewers

The 2008 Milwaukee Brewers had an opportunity to win a World Series title and they took it. They traded stud prospect Matt LaPorta for a four month rental of CC Sabathia who used a 1.65 ERA and a 11-2 record to propel the Brew crew into the playoffs. Of course then CC had a(nother) playoff collapse and Milwaukee was easily dismissed by the eventual champion Phillies, but, hey, gotta give the Brewers credit for taking a shot.

Turns out taking a shot was the right move for the Brewers organization. Ace Ben Sheets was headed to free agency in 2009 as was not going to be resigned by Milwaukee even before he needed elbow surgery. Young gun Yovani Gallardo spent most of 2008 recovering from a torn ACL and he will probably continue to develop in 2009, but probably won't be a lights-out ace for another year or two. The rest of the Milwaukee rotation is far from playoff caliber. Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra, Braden Looper and Dave Bush would all be nice end of the rotation inning eaters, but you really don't want them starting 80% of your team's games.

The Brewers bullpen doesn't make it any easier to project the Brewers back into the NL playoffs. Carlos Villanueva takes over as the closer temporarily while Trevor Hoffman is injured, and with three career saves is far from a sure thing in the ninth inning. The rest of the 'pen is alot like Villanueva: unreliable. Seth McClung has a career ERA over 5.0, David Riske has lights out stuff... sometimes and Todd Coffey is about as average a middle reliever as you are going to find. To make matters worse, the Brewers have exactly one lefty in the bullpen: Mitch Stetter and his 31 career innings. Yeah, Brewers fans, be very nervous if Ryan Howard comes up with 2 runners on in the eighth inning.

Fortunately for Milwaukee, the Brewers offense can score a lot of runs. The lineup remains unchanged from 2008 and should continue to develop in 2009. Lead off man Ricky Weeks just doesn't get on base enough with a career batting average of 0.245. The Brewers really need to find a better solution at the top of the lineup, since they have plenty of guys that can drive in runs hitting after Weeks. JJ Hardy and Corey Hart have swapped between the #2 and #5 spots for a couple years and both supply plenty of power, but neither is the OBP monster Milwaukee needs at the top of the lineup. Bashers Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are both capable of 40+ home run seasons and could put up huge RBI numbers if Brewers ever find a more conventional options at the top of the lineup. At the bottom of the lineup, Mike Cameron and Bill Hall have, surprise, surprise, more power, but just don't hit for a high enough average. If the Brewers are ever going to become an elite offensive team, they are going to have to trade in their slow pitch softball approach for more of a station-to-station philosophy.

Projected Record: 80-82

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates haven't won more that 70 games in the any of the last four seasons (no joke, look it up, it's a train wreck). And while I think they might be headed in the right direction, I'm not willing to commit to a full review of the 2009 squad. So here are your quick hitters:

Lineup: Sub-standard by any evaluation, Nate McClouth and Adam LaRoche are the only reliable bats, youngsters Nyjer Morgan, Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss may be there someday, but that day will not be in 2009.

Rotation: Maholm looks like the real deal, Duke and Snell could be the base of a good rotation if they ever make the leap from quad-A players. Russ Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens are not major league quality.

Bullpen: Yep, they've got one, it's okay.

Projected Record: 74-88 (good news Pirate fans, if I'm right you get a review next year!!!)

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are going to be the surprise team of the NL. While I can't exactly put my finger on why, I think it has alot to do with Tony LaRussa and his career 0.534 winning percentage, 5 pennants and 2 World Series titles. A future Hall of Famer, LaRussa is both a great motivator and terrific in-game tactician and is a tremendous asset on the St. Louis bench. With several pieces appearing to be in place, expect LaRussa to guide this team to a big season.

The Cardinals lineup is reliable and should improve in 2009. Skip Schumaker enters his 2nd full big league season and will be a good table setter for the St. Louis offense. Schumaker hits for a nice average, but does need to draw a few more walks and steal a few more bases to be really effective. Former pitcher turned basher Rick Ankiel is out of position hitting in the #2 spot, but should see plenty of meaty pitches with proverbial MVP candidate Albert Pujols hitting third. Speaking of Pujols, there is really nothing I can write that you don't already know about him. He hits for power, he hits for average, he's putting Hall of Fame type numbers and at the age of 29 he should be in the prime of his career. Chris Duncan is slotted in the enviable position right behind Pujols and is one of the Cardinal's big question marks, since he has never played a full big league season. Ryan Ludwick will look to follow up his massive 2008 campaign and should solidify the St. Louis lineup if he can stay healthy for the second year in a row. The bottom of the Cardinals lineup has potential, with Khalil Greene escaping the hitter unfriendly Petco Field and David Freese making the jump to the majors after a 26 HR, 0.305 season in AAA.

The St. Louis starting rotation looks solid, if unspectacular. Adam Wainwright isn't a lights out ace, but if he can stay healthy, he will give the Cardinals a chance to win every game he starts. Kyle Lohse is coming off a career year and has pitched very well in 2 starts so far, but should still make Cardinal fans a little nervous in the #2 spot. Todd Wellemeyer is another "effective"-type pitcher coming off a great first season in a starters role. Chris Carpenter is a huge wild card with only four starts in the last two years, but will be a huge boost to the Cardinals rotation if he stays healthy.

The Cards bullpen looks to be better than the unit that undermined the club in 2008. The live-armed Jason Motte slides into the closer role after posting tiny ERA and WHIP numbers in 2008. Ryan Franklin is back in the setup role after struggling as a de facto closer in 2008 and should be more successful without the ninth inning pressure. Lefthanders Dennys Reyes and Trevor Miller join the Cardinals for 2009 and should give Tony LaRussa two veteran options for late game matchups.

Projected Record: 93-69

NL East Preview

Atlanta Braves
This is where the cheesy part of me wants to say that Derek Lowe will probably have a great opening day start, but you come here for better than cheesy. After like a million straight years of winning the division, the Braves haven't been in the playoffs since 2005. They've fielded some solid teams and competed for the division title, but fans in Atlanta expect more out of their team. It's not impossible that this is the year they get back to the postseason.

The hitting, as it has for the past decade, starts with Chipper Jones. He's one of the best hitters in the league, and he's putting together a decent Hall of Fame resume despite his history of injury problems. Brian McCann has put together a couple of really solid campaigns, but after those two, the bats are suspect. Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar, and Casey Kotchman are all 10-15 HR guys, but none of them scares you at the plate. The outfield boasts an over-the-hill guy (Garret Anderson), a rookie who hasn't played above AA (Jordan Schafer), and last year's most-hated fantasy player (Jeff Francoeur). To say the offense could go in any direction would be a gross understatement.

The pitching is similar, but with a little more talent. The aforementioned Lowe is a reliable, consistent starter. He's followed by Jair Jurrjens and Javier Vazquez, both of whom are solid #2 pitchers. Kenshin Kawakami and Jorge Campillo round out the staff, and while neither is proven, both have upside above their 4th and 5th slots. The bullpen is less exciting, with Mike Gonzalez trying to recapture his success from 2006, but if he can stay healthy, he might be able to do just that. He's always walked too many batters for a closer, but as long as you can get out of jams, you can close. Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan are other closer possibilities, should things go poorly for Gonzo.

Projected record: 79-83

Florida Marlins
The Marlins feel like they're a year or two away from competing for a World Series again, which means they're two or three years from dismantling again. I don't love any part of their team, but I don't hate any part either, which means you can probably guess where I'm going to project their record to finish up.

Hanley Ramirez is one of the premier hitters in baseball. His double-play partner, Dan Uggla, has as much power as any second baseman around. Questions abound elsewhere, though. Can Jorge Cantu keep up his production this time, and avoid falling off the planet again? Is Cameron Maybin finally ready for the majors? Will Emilio Bonifacio be a shrewd acquisition or an overpriced speed guy? Can Jeremy Hermida stay healthy and put together a productive season? Lots of questions, but that means the potential for high-caliber production is there.

Somehow, the Marlins always seem to have an up-and-coming pitching staff. Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson are a promising young 1-2 punch that have the potential to be the best in the majors. Chris Volstad is 6'8" and if he can work on his control, he'll be another top tier starter. Anibal Sanchez isn't a stud, but he has thrown a no-hitter, so he's got the tools. Former Tigers prospect Andrew Miller will take the #5 spot for now; if he still needs seasoning, Rick VandenHurk will take over when he comes off the DL. Matt Lindstrom, he of the 100 mph fastball, is the new closer. I'm not crazy about him, but he should be sufficient. Kiko Calero and Leo Nunez are very good bullpen guys.

Projected record: 83-79

New York Mets

The Mets always spend a lot of money, but they'll remain in the Yankees' shadow until they start performing in October. And to perform in October, they'll have to play better in September. Back-to-back late season collapses have Mets fans wondering how much money it will take to right the ship.

The offense is a little top-heavy. David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran are elite players, and Carlos Delgado showed he's still got plenty of pop to make opposing pitchers fear him. After that, though, it's slim pickings. Ryan Church had a great start to last season, but wasn't the same after a concussion. Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy are on opposite ends of their careers, but figure to both be just decent this year. Brian Schneider calls a decent game but can't hit worth a lick, and Luis Castillo's best days are behind him.

The rotation has a couple of wild cards, but could be pretty good. Johan Santana is a multiple-time Cy Young award winner, and figures to consistently be among the best pitchers in the National League. Oliver Perez and John Maine are both strikeout pitchers with a propensity for bad games. They're the kind of pitchers you send out there and just hope for the best. Mike Pelfrey is still young, but performed adequately in his first full season, and the Mets have high hopes for him.

The Mets' bullpen gets its own section, because it's probably the most discussed bullpen in baseball. Billy Wagner is out for the season, so New York inked Francisco Rodriguez ("K-Rod") to a trillion dollar contract. Then they traded for J.J. Putz, hoping to avoid the utter collapse that happened last year when Wagner went down. The rest of the 'pen is unproven, but the two big acquisitions should give the Mets a boost, both talent-wise and psychologically.

Projected record: 90-72

Philadelphia Phillies

Last year's World Series champions field an eerily similar team this season. Pat Burrell leaves, but in comes Raul Ibanez. Jayson Werth goes from part-time to full-time. And the ageless Jamie Moyer comes back to help the Phillies defend their crown. There's no reason this team can't do it again.

The offense is keyed by three elite players: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins. But unlike two years ago, they've got some complementary pieces in place now that help make this offense go. Shane Victorino scored over a hundred runs and became the bridge the Phillies needed between Rollins and the boppers. Werth became a 20-20 player, and could be even more productive with 150 more at-bats. This might be the best offense in the league.

The pitching doesn't look that great to me, but it also looks pretty similar to last year's pitching, which was good enough. Cole Hamels is a true ace, but Joe Blanton, Brett Myers, and Moyer aren't sure things at all. They've swapped Adam Eaton out and Chan Ho Park in as the #5 starter, but I have a hard time believing that a guy like Park, a fly ball pitcher with a history of trouble keeping the ball in the park, will finish the season in the rotation in Philadelphia. Luckily, they've got Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin in the bullpen, who've both been spot-starters at some point in the past three years. Brad Lidge is one of the best closers in the NL, but there's not a lot of depth behind him, so he can't really afford to slip up.

Projected record: 88-74

Washington Nationals

Ahh, the Nationals. My hometown team. I'm still trying to warm up to them, which has been more difficult than I had imagined, especially considering I was a big Expos fan. I'm a little more excited this year than in previous years, but I'm not expecting a whole lot. A lame duck manager and front office turmoil don't usually point to big gains.

The offense is at the very least intriguing. No less than five starters have 20 HR potential, as do Nick Johnson and Elijah Dukes, both currently bench players. While the team does have a distinct lack of .300 hitters, if you get that slugging percentage high enough, you can generate enough runs with smaller rallies. The acquisition of Adam Dunn finally gives Washington a legitimate, dangerous bat in the middle of the order, and it gives everyone else in the lineup greater run-scoring potential. It's about time for Ryan Zimmerman to take that next step, though, if he's ever going to take it. He's a great defender, but you've got to score runs.

The pitching is utterly terrifying. John Lannan is a mediocre pitcher, a solid #3 in a decent pitchig staff. But in Washington, he's far and away the best pitcher. Scott Olsen is trying to harness his velocity and become a pitcher, as is Daniel Cabrera, though Cabrera might be attempting the impossible. Julian Tavarez will round out the rotation, though he or Cabrera will probably slide in a higher slot to separate the lefties Lannan and Olsen. Jordan Zimmermann is a big time pitching prospect that will probably join the team as soon as they need a fifth starter (notice the additional 'n' at the end of his last name; he's unrelated to Ryan).

Surprisingly, the bullpen isn't terrible. Though the team lost their last two closers in the past 12 months (Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch), they've found another guy who can fill the job in Joel Hanrahan. He's a strikeout pitcher who walks too many hitters, but on a bad team, you're willing to accept that. Steven Shell showed a lot of promise last year, and the righty-lefty combo of Saul Rivera and Mike Hinckley gives manager Manny Acta some options early this season. Prospect Shairon Martis figures to get some exposure in the starting rotation as well as the season goes on, but will probably be in the bullpen to start the season.

Projected record: 72-90

How To Get Kids To Stay In School

In case you forget, here's the draft projections that I suggested might hold the key to keeping kids in school.

Check out those salaries. In case you were unaware, players selected in the NBA draft have pre-determined salaries. They are assigned 2-year contracts with 2 more years as team options. Derrick Rose, last year's #1 overall pick, will average under $5 million a year over the first four years of his career. Corey Maggette, a career 16.3 point-per-game scorer who's thirty years old and hasn't started 70 games in any of the past five seasons, signed a contract last offseason that will pay him an average of $9.5 million a year over next five years. Rose, by the way, is averaging 16.6 points per game in this, his rookie, season.

The discrepancy here is that incoming college players don't get to negotiate their contracts; they're assigned a value. In this small part of the American economy, capitalism is completely ignored. In the sport where one player can make the biggest difference, and where the teams at the bottom of the draft are in more desperate need of superstar talents, those superstar talents are not being allowed to negotiate within the market to try to obtain their true value. I believe that this is contributing to the exodus of great college players from college basketball. How? I'll try to draw you the line.

I am a very good college freshman basketball player. I'm not the best player around, but everyone likes me and I'm sure to go around pick #15. In the current draft system, I'll make about $1.7 million a year for the first couple of years, then be eligible for free agency. As long as I play well and show promise, I'll get at least $5 million a year, and potentially a good deal more if I can really excel in my role. I don't have to be a superstar, because I'm young, and it takes time for people my age to grow into their NBA bodies.

I could stay another year and improve my draft stock to around #8, but the advantage is only $700K per year for those first four years. Sure that's a lot of money, but it keeps me another year away from my big payday. A little chart to compare (option A is to stay in college another year; option B is to leave now):

• 2010: A - $0, B - $1.7M
• 2011: A - $2.1M, B - $1.85M
• 2012: A - $2.35M, B - $2.0M
• 2013: A - $2.5M, B - $2.55M
• 2014: A - $3.2M, B - FREE AGENCY

It makes better financial sense to leave now, because I'm four years away from free agency once I go pro, and hitting free agency is when I can actually make my money. The sooner I hit free agency, the better. Every year I stay in college is a year when I'm lengthening the amount of time it's going to take for me to obtain my actual basketball worth.

Do I think this is the only factor? No, of course not. Lots of players don't want to go to school at all, but end up doing so for a year because the NBA created a rule requiring players to be 19 to be eligible for the draft. This rule again is artificially skewing the market. Who exactly is our cautionary tale among high school players? Certainly not Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, or Kobe Bryant, for these players are all superstars. Then perhaps it's the ill-fated 2001 crop of high schoolers: Kwame Brown, Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, and Sagana Diop. Well, each of them is making at least $4 million this year.

No, this isn't for the good of the players. It's an image thing. The average, ignorant American thinks that it's "wrong" for an 18-year-old to be making millions of dollars, so they shout about how these kids should be forced to go to school, "for their benefit." All of the cries were that these kids should be forced to go to school because, hey, maybe they actually want to go to school; we're just giving them an easy way out. Turns out they all stay one year and then head to the pros anyways. So now, the discussion has moved to a 20-year-old minimum age.

If your goal is to have a greater number of people enrolled as freshman in college, then the 19-year-old limitation is a great idea. But if your idea is to re-establish the continuity that made college basketball great for so many years (which is really all I care about), then allowing elite high school players to enter the NBA draft will prevent them from being the one-and-done players who skew college basketball from year to year (see the aforementioned Rose).

Do I wish the best 18- to 22-year-old basketball players were all playing college basketball and helping to make the NCAA tournament as good as its ever been? Of course I do. But I'd rather watch the same sons of bitches at Duke for four years than get annoyed at a new bunch of bastards at UNC every year. So open up the contract negotiations, and let high schoolers go into the NBA draft. We'll get over ourselves eventually.

AL Central Preview

Chicago White Sox
The White Sox might be the one team I most want to see fail. I like seeing the Yankees fail, too, but there's no question that postseason baseball is more exciting when the Evil Empire is in the mix. The White Sox, however, offer no tradition of overspending and domination. The mere existence of A.J. Pierzynski is reason enough to root against them. Rargh. Okay, now that that's off my chest, let's move on to the preview.

The White Sox boast one of the more potent middles of the order in the American League, with Quentin, Dye, Thome, and Konerko all capable of 35+ homers this year. A lot will be asked of Alexei Ramirez, who perhaps deserved to win the Rookie of the Year award over Evan Longoria last year. Chicago fans are hoping he's more Hanley Ramirez than Angel Berroa. The concern this year, as in past years, is whether or not they can generate enough offense with a .263 batting average again.

Mark Buehrle anchors what has suddenly become a pretty solid pitching staff. Gavin Floyd and John Danks are 26 and 24, respectively, and showed enough promise last season to be relied upon as the #2 and #3 starters this year. The back of the rotation will be Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon, and while I don't know if you can count on either of them, they've got the experience to be decent starters. Bobby Jenks has lost several miles per hour off of his fastball in the past two years, but was still an effective closer last season. It remains to be seen if he can keep it up if the velocity doesn't come back. If he falters, Octavio Dotel and Matt Thornton could step in.

Projected record: 84-78

Cleveland Indians
The Indians were a sexy pick last season, but it took a solid second half and a huge season by Cliff Lee just to get them up to .500. Expectations are high again this year, but a lot of guys are going to have to take steps forward for it to pan out.

The offense hinges strongly on Grady Sizemore, who inexplicably looks like he'll still be batting leadoff. Sizemore was near the top of the AL in home runs all season (he finished tied for 6th with 33), but will once again be setting the table for lesser hitters. Jhonny Peralta and Ryan Garko have solid power, and there's nobody outside of Cleveland who doesn't think Victor Martinez will bounce back and once again be among the best hitting catchers in baseball. In my opinion, the most important piece of this offensive puzzle will be the development of right-fielder Shin-Soo Choo. He hit .343 after the All-Star break last year, and if he can continue to improve, his bat near the top of the order could generate a ton of runs.

Even with the Cy Young winner Lee acing the staff, though, the pitching is pretty scary. Fausto Carmona exploded after a productive 2007, and showed absolutely nothing that would make you feel encouraged about his potential for 2009. Anthony Reyes was a pleasant surprise, but he was unable to stay productive in three-and-a-half seasons with the Cardinals; I'm wary of his ability to suddenly turn it on for Cleveland. Carl Pavano is in the rotation for the Indians. Yeah, that's the scary part. They did the right thing by going out and paying for a closer after their recent difficulties, but Kerry Wood's injury history leaves open the door for more disappointment in the 9th inning again this year. Rafaels Betancourt and Perez are good middle relievers, bad closers.

Projected record: 84-78

Detroit Tigers
The Tigers might have been the biggest disappointment in baseball last year. They sent six prospects to Florida to acquire Miguel Cabrera to anchor their lineup, and got Dontrelle Willis in the trade as well. A tame first half by Cabrera and an anxiety disorder for Willis is making that trade seem a little less exciting. Cabrera did round out to lead the AL in HR, but Willis is on the DL, and the rest of the team isn't looking as good as they did going into last season.

Cabrera is obviously the best hitter in the lineup, but the whole outfield features proven and productive players. Carlos Guillen is just one year removed from 100 RBI, and Magglio Ordonez has hit that plateau in each of the past three years. Meanwhile, center fielder Curtis Granderson is among the most exciting players in the league, with a power/speed combination as potent as anyone in the AL other than Sizemore. The remainder of the infield is of the makeshift variety (Placido Polanco, Brandon Inge, Adam Everett), but they can slide in around the boppers to offer some solid production.

I think the pitching staff is where you're going to see this team made or broken, and my money is on broken. Justin Verlander figures to bounce back a little bit after an awful start to last season, but after him, the rotation is suspect. Jeremy Bonderman has been pitching too long to still have any upside left; he is what he is, a 4.50, 12 win guy. Armando Galarraga showed some nice savvy last season, but probably has reached his upside. Edwin Jackson got some coverage as possibly the next Cliff Lee, but the reason Lee was such a story was that it doesn't happen very frequently. I'm not counting on a second explosion in two years. I don't like anything about the Tigers' bullpen, either. Stop me when you hear the name of a guy you want to be your closer: Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya, Brandon Lyon, Bobby Seay, Juan Rincon...that's what I thought.

Projected record: 77-85

Kansas City Royals
Ahh, the lowly Royals. They've been out of contention in this division by July for a dozen years, and while I think they're getting better, there's really no reason to think things will be any different this season. The inexplicable acquisition of Mike Jacobs this offseason makes me think that this team might have to overcome its management if they're going to be successful.

The offense has a lot of holes, but certainly a lot of potential as well. Third baseman Alex Gordon and DH Billy Butler were both super prospects, and while they may not develop into superstars, they've both shown they can at least be productive major leaguers. David DeJesus, Coco Crisp, and Jose Guillen make up a somewhat surprisingly productive outfield. If I'm wrong about Jacobs and he's actually got room to improve, the offense could be decent.

Gil Meche and Zack Greinke are a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Horacio Ramirez and Kyle Davies are two former Braves who you'd have to be "brave" to put in your rotation. I crack myself up. But seriously, neither of them has shown that they can be much more than a #5 starter, but the Royals are counting on them to eat innings. I wouldn't hold out much hope for that. Jamey Wright or Robinson Tejeda will likely be the team's actual #5 starter. Joakim Soria is a top-tier closer, and Juan Cruz showed flashes of being a very nice short reliever and setup man. Kyle Farnsworth is available if the team needs to spear a hit batsmen who's rushing the mound.

Projected record: 68-94

Minnesota Twins
The Twins may have gotten screwed out of the AL Central divison crown last season through a bogus rule regarding the one-game playoff. The home/away decision was made by a coin flip, rather than by the 10-8 record the Twins compiled against the White Sox during the season. Both teams were 53-28 at home and 35-46 on the road; the home field advantage was pronounced. The rule was changed this offseason, which is no consolation for Minnesota, but there's every reason to think the Twins will be right back in the hunt for the division crown in 2009.

The top of the order has Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, a couple of young players with legitimate upside. Joe Mauer, though he'll be opening the season the DL, is one of the best overall players in the American League, and 1B Justin Morneau was 2006's AL MVP. Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla make up one of the weakest offensive middle infields in baseball, but the Twins scored the 4th most runs in baseball last year with that kind of middle infield, so I'm still optimistic.

Their pitching staff is fantastic. Francisco Liriano started to show some of the magic from his dominant 2006 season again last year, and he looks like he's a legitimate ace. Kevin Slowey was among the sharpest pitchers in baseball last year, with 123 strikeouts and just 24 walks. Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, and Nick Blackburn are as good a 3-4-5 as you'll find in baseball. The bullpen is highlighted by Joe Nathan, possibly the best closer in baseball. The middle relief crew isn't as good as it's been in the past, but I trust Minnesota's pen to always be effective; they seem to have a gift for finding great arms.

Projected record: 96-66

NL West Preview

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks have all the makings of a good team. Unfortunately, they also have the question marks that keep them from looking like a great team. The D-back lineup is solid, with 20+ home run potential from 7 of the 8 positions. Big questions surround the ability of 2B import Felipe Lopez and center fielder (and long time prospect) Chris Young to get on base enough at the top of the lineup to yield RBI opportunities for the guys farther down. If Lopez struggles, look for displaced outfielder Eric Byrnes to reclaim the lead off spot and for Conor Jackson, Chad Tracy, Tony Clark and Mark Reynolds to rotate based on who's got the hot stick.

Arizona, like most teams in the offensively challenged NL west, has a better than average starting rotation. Returning 22 game winner, Brandon Webb is the reliable, dominant ace GMs dream of. For that matter, so is #2 Dan Haren. Doug Davis and Jon Garland aren't going to challenge for the NL Cy Young, but they should be effective (and reliable) enough to keep the D-backs in most games. Fireballing prospect Max Scherzer looks to make the transition from dominant reliever to #5 starter. If he's as good as a lot of people think he is, Arizona should have the most effective starting rotation in all of baseball.

Unfortunately, the Diamondback's mediocre bullpen will hold them back from being a truly elite team. Chad Qualls takes over as the closer, despite only 15 career saves. Tony Pena, Jon Rauch and Tom Gordon all have (or had, in Gordon's case) closers stuff, but have problems with consistency. And only having one left handed arm in Scott Schoeneweis should create situational problems for Arizona manager Bob Melvin late in games.

Projected record: 88-74

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies are not going to compete for an NL West title this year. Colorado's roster is filled with injury risks, unproven talent and players with diminishing skills, and even if everything pans out, I can't see the Rockies overthrowing the Diamondbacks or Dodgers at the top of the standings.

The Colorado lineup has question marks from top to bottom. Here's a few: "Can former part-timer Ryan Spilborghs be the table setter the Rockies need at the top of the lineup?", "Will Troy Tulowitzki regain the power stroke he had in 2007?", "Is Todd Helton finished?", "Will Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe be nearly as effective without Matt Holliday's bat in the lineup?", "Who the heck is Seth Smith?". So yeah, that's pretty much the entire lineup and it's really, really hard to see all those questions having happy answers for Rockies fans.

The pitching staff doesn't inspire much confidence either. The mediocre Aaron Cook draws the unfavorable draw of having to match up against Tim Lincecum, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy and Chad Billingsley on a regular basis, so he can probably look forward to double digit loses in 2009. Ubaldo Jimenez is the future Rockies #1, but I'm not sure that he's going to be there this year. Jorge De La Rosa has a career ERA over 5.0 and Jason Marquis doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Lefty Greg Smith breezed through the minor leagues and showed a lot of promise as a rookie with Oakland in 2008, so Rockies fans shouldn't give up all hope (unless of course we are talking about the 2008 season, in which case, yes, it's appropriate to give up hope).

The Colorado bullpen looks to be the team's strong point, but, naturally, there are still questions. Huston Street can be dominant, but has issues staying healthy. Manny Corpas had a rough 2008, but has good stuff. The rest of the bullpen (Taylor Buchholz, Jason Grilli and Alan Embree) isn't going to make a huge difference.

Projected Record: 68-94

Los Angeles Dodgers

The returning NL West Champion Dodgers look to be the class of the division again this season. While they lost veteran starting pitchers Derek Lowe and Brad Penny to free agency, they have an offense that should be ready to step up and carry the load. And when you talk about the Dodgers lineup, things definitely start with Manny Ramirez. After coming over from Boston, the future Hall of Famer lead LA to the postseason by hitting nearly .400 and smashing 17 dingers in only 187 ABs. Manny's effects were most pronounced on lefty Andre Ethier, who hit a ridiculous .462 hitting behind Ramirez for the final month of the season. Expect Ethier and other Dodger youngsters, James Loney and Matt Kemp, to continue to mature and to continue to reap the benefits of hitting around Ramirez. The top of the LA lineup is pretty potent as well, with Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson expected to be in the 1-2 spots. Health is the key with these two, but if they are playing, I could see them each crossing the plate more than 100 times in 2009.

If the Dodgers are to stumble in 2009, it's probably going to be because of their pitching staff. The starting rotation is lead by Chad Billingsley, a former first round pick who blossomed into a full fledged ace in 2008. If Billingsley cuts down on his walks and gets a few more runs of support, 2009 could be a 20 win season for him. Another former first round pick, 21 year old left-hander Clayton Kershaw, is being asked to take the number 2 spot in the rotation after an up and down first big league season. Expect more growing pains from Kershaw, but he should become more consistent. Hiroki Kuroda and Randy Wolf are adequate end of the rotation starters and Joe Torre is definitely counting on them to take the ball every fifth day.

The LA bullpen also has a few holes. Jonathan Broxton takes over the closer's role and should rack up a bunch of saves if the rest of the bullpen can get to the ninth. Hong-Chih Kuo had an incredible 2008, posting an ERA of 2.14, but it's tough to see Kuo matching those numbers in 2009, since he had a career ERA over 4.0 prior to 2008. Journeyman Guillermo Mota is past his prime, while Eric Stults and James McDonald have only 101 combined innings between them. Dodger fans should probably stock up on the Pepto now, because they are going to have some dicey 7th and 8th innings.

Projected Record: 92-70

San Diego Padres

The Padres are probably the worst team in baseball. Yep, no sugar coating that. Their offense is made up of cast-offs (Jody Gerut, David Eckstein and Brian Giles, and, yes, those guys are expected to hit 1-2-3 for San Diego) and prospects that haven't panned out yet (Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley). Adrian Gonzalez is one of the best young hitters in baseball, but he just doesn't have enough help carrying the Padres weak lineup.

The San Diego starting rotation is top heavy. Ace Jake Peavy will turn 28 this year and is one of the most dominant starters in the big leagues. Chris Young was banged up in 2008, but his 2007 numbers are those of an elite starter. While Peavy and Young are a great start, unfortunately for the Padres, most MLB teams usually use a five man rotation. Cha Seung Baek is borderline awful, Shawn Hill was so bad and inconsistent that the Nationals chose not to keep him around and, yes, that's only four players. Kevin Correia may get a spot in the rotation, but who cares.

I could break down the bullpen, but it would really be a waste of everybody's time. Who cares how good or bad the Padres bullpen is when they only have two reliable starters and no offense? This team is on the fast track to 100 losses.

Projected Record: 60-102

San Francisco Giants

We here at Joe and Joe Sports pride ourselves in being impartial and fair, but,... aww hell, who am I kidding... TIM LINCECUM, TIM LINCECUM, TIM LINCECUM!!!!! Whew, now that I've got that out of my system, let's move on.

The Giants rotation, led by the aforementioned and 2008 Cy Young Award winning Lincecum, is unquestionably the strength of the 2009 squad. Lincecum is one of the elite young arms in the game and the scary part is that his 2008 splits indicate that he may have gotten even better as the year progressed (a tidy 1.07 WHIP after the All-Star break). 45 year old Randy Johnson slides into the number 2 spot in the rotation and, if he can give 20-25 starts, should give the Giants a great righty-lefty attack at the top of the rotation. The chronically unlucky Matt Cain (15-30 in the last 2 years despite an ERA around 3.7) and revived corpse of Barry Zito (seriously, his 2008 post All-Star break numbers were serviceable, maybe not for somebody making $20 mil a season, but serviceable nonetheless) give the Giants one of the deepest rotations in baseball. Youngster Jonathan Sanchez will give the Giants an all-or-nothing effort from the number five spot in the rotation.

However, the Giants lineup just isn't good enough for me to project them into the National League West pennant race. It's tough to get excited about guys with very little upside, like Randy Winn, Aaron Rowand and Bengie Molina. These guys play hard and contribute, but it's hard to see them being much better than they were for the Giants in 2008 and that team lost 90 games. Fred Lewis and Pablo Sandoval give San Francisco fans hope for the future, but these two guys are probably a year or two away from the type of production the Giants need from them to be division contenders.

The bullpen looks like it could be a nice compliment to a solid starting rotation. Brian Wilson is the closer and, despite less than desire-able 2008 numbers, he was able to slam the door 41 out of 46 times, a ratio I have to imagine most MLB managers would accept. Former elite middle reliever Bobby Howry will be a big addition to the Giants bullpen if he still has anything left. Second year players Sergio Romo and Alex Hinshaw both look promising and could become the righty/lefty combo the Giants need.

Projected Record: 78-84